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ETHIOPIAN CIVIL WAR READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
Meir Litvak on Iran's Use of Armed Proxies by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar November 20, 2020 https://www.meforum.org/61792/meir-litvak-on-iran-use-of-armed-proxies
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Putting Combatant Commanders on a Demand Signal Diet by Mackenzie Eaglen
Strategic Autonomy and U.S.-Indian Relations by Jeff M. Smith
Army Wants Smaller Brigades, Stronger Divisions & Lots of Robots
By Sydney Freedberg, Breaking Defense: "New technologies and organizations will give soldiers an edge, Maj. Gen. Patrick Donahoe said, but tanks and foot troops will still face brutal close combat."
Autonomy and Defense in the Twenty-First Century
By Steve Blank, Modern War Institute: “Over the last decade, DoD has adopted robotics and unmanned systems, but almost all are “dumb”—pre-programmed or remotely operated—rather than autonomous.”
Assessing the Role of Civil Government Agencies in Irregular Warfare
By Damimola Olawuyi, Divergent Options: "Responses to militant non-state actors will be ineffective without a whole of government effort that emphasizes military and nonmilitary interventions in appropriate measures to defeat violent threats, stabilize territories and restore the lives of affected populations."
Mission Impossible?’ Interoperability Across Arab States
Enhancing interoperability across Arab states’ defense systems remains a holy grail that even alliances such as NATO find hard to achieve.
Russia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Genuine Threat or Misconception?
By Jason E. Strakes, November 4, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: While government officials and others have alleged a strategy that involves Russian-sponsored security organizations in recent escalations in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, these claims are largely misconceptions. The conventional wisdom fails to recognize these structures as representing alternative security perceptions held by Russia and other participating states rather than traditional NATO-style military alliances. Continue to full article ->
After our delay in modernizing the nuclear triad, the projected cost is significant and the timeline unyielding. Simultaneously, policymakers must contend with a myriad of complex factors forcing unprecedented integration between conventional and nuclear weapons, note Mackenzie Eaglen and Elaine McCusker in an AEIdeas blog. Hence, we must enable and equip the Nuclear Weapons Council to recommend and oversee the development of nuclear capabilities and security roles between federal departments and services. Continue here.
The US military walks a tricky line: preparing for war with other great powers while making peacetime efforts to prevent it. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands points out that bracing for conflict with Russia or China is the key to deterrence. However, the Pentagon will not typically be the lead department when it comes to peacetime competition. Success will require contribution to long, indecisive struggles for position and planning for climactic battles if competition gives way to conflict. Read here. Last week, the Swedish government decided to raise its defense budget by 40 percent over the next five years. Equally important is Sweden’s decision to invest in civil defense, the part of national security focused on ensuring that energy, health care, food provision, and other pillars of daily life function well during a crisis, notes Elisabeth Braw in an AEIdeas blog. Investing in civil defense makes societies stronger to keep themselves safe from subversive attacks on their way of life. Sweden’s decision to double funding civil defense is something that other countries should learn from. Continue here. In 2021, Washington should take a long, hard look at its military spending and use a bipartisan process to push through the necessary changes. In a National Interest op-ed, John Ferrari argues that a reorientation of US national security priorities can be achieved alongside a modernized military — not at its expense. The solutions however must be the product of a bipartisan consensus that has to emerge quickly after this upcoming election. Learn more here.
If Trump is reelected, Washington will find that it faces a world without the institutions, alliances, and goodwill that have long bolstered US interests, notes Kori Schake in a Foreign Affairs article. However, Republicans have the chance to push for an alternative by strengthening US alliances, rethinking relationships with our adversaries, reconsidering our so-called forever wars, and creating a new trade policy. If Republicans do not wrench foreign policy out of the America First course, this country will find itself alone and facing an international order shielding itself from US influence. Learn more here.
 An Inside Look at How Israel Trains for the Next War with Its Best Units by Seth Frantzman
The National Interest October 7, 2020 https://www.meforum.org/61660/how-israel-trains-for-the-next-war HOOVER DIGEST: peruse the entire issue on the Hoover website. Navy plans Hammerhead mines to box in Chinese, Russian subs (Breaking Defense) The Hammerhead mine would be delivered to sites by underwater drones, and “detect, classify, and defeat” manned or unmanned submarines, the Navy says. The Russians have spent 40 years preparing for undersea slaughter—the US Navy built a submarine to stop it (Forbes) In mid-October 2019, the Russian navy sortied every operational attack submarine in its Northern Fleet into the cold waters of the high North Atlantic. Marines vs. China ― the Corps just put these tactics to the test (Marine Corps Times) The Marine Corps just wrapped a combined exercise between III Marine Expeditionary Force, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the U.S. 7th Fleet that put to the test the Corps' vision for its future fight against China. 
The Chinese people want to send money somewhere Xi Jinping isn’t Derek Scissors | AEIdeas COVID-19 adds confusion to long-standing credibility problems in China's economic statistics. The dangerous decline of US diplomacy
Michael Rubin | The National Interest The dynamics of contemporary American partisanship are corrosive to diplomacy. Gone are the days of broad bipartisan foreign policy consensus and consistency. Esper’s reforms: An interim report card (Defense One) What progress has the defense secretary made on his ambitious goals to reorient the Defense Department? Mackenzie Eaglen writes: Secretary Esper stayed committed to his ten targeted goals—each with subtasks—under these three broad objectives to begin achieving “irreversible implementation” of the National Defense Strategy. He has made laudable progress — while leaving plenty of work for next year. – Defense One Global Business Brief // Marcus Weisgerber: 500-ship Navy?; Lord's reforms; Interior's drone fleet; and more.. Chinese increasing nuclear submarine shipyard capacity (USNI News) As China pushes to become a blue-water power, nuclear-powered submarines are critically important to Beijing’s plan. What could Turkey’s latest S-400 missile tests mean? (Al Jazeera) Last year, Turkey bought the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft defense system, in spite of fierce objections from the United States.  Grand Strategy Is Total: French Gen. André Beaufre on War in the Nuclear Age by Michael Shurkin The Secret to the Northern Mozambique Insurgency’s Success by Emilia Columbo Erdoğan and His Arab "Brothers" By Burak Bekdil, October 8, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: After the infamous Mavi Marmara incident of May 2010, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and then foreign policy tzar Ahmet Davutoğlu (later PM and now an Erdoğan opponent) pledged to internationally isolate Israel. This was intended to help them advance their Islamist agenda and augment an emerging unity in the umma, preferably under Turkish leadership. A decade later, pragmatic Arab states are lining up to normalize relations with Israel, leaving state actors Iran and Turkey as well as non-state actor Hamas in a punishing position of international isolation—exactly where Turkey wanted to push Israel. Continue to full article -> Battle Force 2045 Raises Important Questions By Harlan Ullman, Proceedings: “This week, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper outlined his plan for the future Navy called Battle Force 2045. The plan calls for a Navy and Marine Corps of about 500 or more ships based on 8-11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and their associated air wings; an increase in nuclear submarines to between 70-80; six smaller aircraft carrier/amphibious warfare ships; a total of 355 manned ships; and between 140-240 unmanned or partially manned vehicles." The War in Nagorno-Karabakh Actually Represents an Opportunity for Washington By Stephen Blank, RealClearDefense: "Several Democratic Senators, in the wake of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, are proposing that the U.S. impose sanctions or terminate all military assistance to Azerbaijan. Evidently, they blame Baku for the war. But while such resolutions may gratify the ubiquitous and deep-rooted moralism and desire to punish malefactors that affects the entire U.S. political class as well as interested domestic constituencies; this intemperate and misconceived move actually runs counter to U.S. interests." The Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict Hints at the Future of War From The Economist: “Azerbaijan’s armed forces may be busy waging war over Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed enclave run by Armenia. That did not stop them from setting aside scarce helicopters and tanks to star in a music video, complete with khaki-clad singers, guitarists and a drummer." Some US-China economic and trade facts The US remains well ahead of the People’s Republic of China across a range of important economic indicators, from domestic wealth to share of global foreign direct investment. Full Story Transforming battlefield geometry: What’s to come in Project Convergence 2021 (Defense News) The U.S. Army’s ambitious first Project Convergence, an exercise that measured the progress of the service’s modernization strategy within its future operational concept, concluded last month, but the service already has a sense of what it wants to accomplish in 2021. 3 questions with Bruce Jette, the US Army’s acquisition chief (Defense News) The service's acquisition chief talks Project Convergence and the pursuit of new programs. Army Modernization’s Day of Reckoning Is at Hand By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: “Army modernization now faces a day of reckoning. Regardless of who wins the November election, the flow of resources which has undergirded modernization is almost certain to decline." Beijing’s Bid for a Maritime “God View”: Military-Civil Fusion Power Projection and Threats to Supply Chain Integrity By Emily de La Bruyère & Nathan Picarsic, RealClearDefense: “On September 30, the White House issued its second critical mineral executive order since 2017. The Executive Order on Addressing the Threat to the Domestic Supply Chain from Reliance on Critical Minerals from Foreign Adversaries aims to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign sources of select critical minerals, including rare earth elements – for which 80 percent of U.S. imports come from China." Irregular Warfare With China, Russia Is Already Here By Sean McFate, The Hill: “Last week, amid the hubbub of the presidential debate, revelations about President Trump’s taxes, the “SCOTUS War” and the COVID-plagued White House, something important happened that almost everybody missed. The Defense Department released the unclassified summary of the Irregular Warfare Annex to the 2018 National Defense Strategy." Russia’s Armed Forces: More Capable by Far, but for How Long? From IISS: "After a decade of modernisation and reform, Russia’s conventional military capabilities are at their highest since the country’s armed forces were formed in 1992. Can Moscow sustain the equipment-modernisation gains made as part of the 2020 State Armament Programme?" The Power of Broken Promises: Wilson’s Fourteen Points and U.S.-Arab Relations By Robert E. Schrader IV, Strategy Bridge: ". . . Following centuries of Ottoman subjugation, the Arab world eagerly clung to this idea of national sovereignty." As China pushes to become a blue-water power, nuclear-powered submarines are critically important to Beijing’s plan. Historically the Chinese Navy’s (PLAN) nuclear-powered submarine fleet has been constrained by its limited construction capacity. There is only one shipyard in the country up to the task. But that yard has been undergoing a massive enlargement. And now, recent satellite imagery suggests an additional capacity expansion. – USNI News Tate Nurkin and Evanna Hu write: The Chinese government has known and built, since the 1990s, its arsenals in indirect warfare. The only way to combat Chinese authoritarian values is to construct resiliency of norms, outcomes, and more importantly, vision of what democratic societies stand for. But the reconstruction will only work with U.S. leadership at the helm to enhance opportunities for security, freedom, and shared prosperity in a new international system. – The Hill Tom Rogan writes: For all our flaws, the U.S. can respond to China’s aggression by offering a hand of friendship to those smaller nations it bullies. And while China might be able to bully one nation into retreat, confronted by a partnership of many nations, Xi’s ambitions can be restrained. – Washington Examiner Mason Clark and Ezgi Yazici write: Azerbaijan therefore likely seeks to use the current conflict to deepen Turkish support outside the Minsk Group framework, introduce Azerbaijan’s capability to launch offensive operations into Armenia’s calculus in negotiations, and initiate a new diplomatic process – even if it is dominated by the Kremlin – that challenges Armenia’s control of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan likely believes Armenia will blink first in a standoff due to Azerbaijan’s stronger economy and overt Turkish military support, such as the deployment of F-16s and SNA fighters, in the absence of similar Russian support to Armenia. – Institute for the Study of War Luke Coffey writes: Far from being just a localized conflict in a place far from Washington, DC, the fighting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian militaries and Armenian-backed militias in Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region could destabilize an already fragile region even further. What happens in the South Caucasus usually does not stay in the South Caucasus. Because the region is so important for transit, trade, and energy reasons, geopolitical shocks in the South Caucasus often have second and third order effects across the broader region. – Middle East Institute Sean McFate writes: China and Russia conquer through irregular-war strategies. That works because they disguise war as peace, until it’s too late. It’s a “boiling the frogs slowly” approach. Just ask the Crimeans or Sri Lankans. Irregular warfare manufactures the fog of war for victory, something that makes the conventional warrior’s head explode. […]Irregular warfare is the armed conflict of our lifetime, and the Pentagon’s strategy to confront it is long overdue. – The Hill
China’s aggressive tactics aim to bolster the Communist Party’s legitimacy Dan Blumenthal and Jakob Urda | The National Interest China has faced two disasters in 2020 — the coronavirus and historic floods — which exposed its fragilities and created internal unrest. Its response to both was the same: escalating aggression against its neighbors. Full Story  Flawed Assumptions and the Need for a Radical Shift in the Next National Security Strategy By Michael N. Gonzalez, Strategy Bridge: "If 2020 has taught the citizens of the United States anything, it is that the security we take for granted is not assured." Thinking Strategically About Sino-American Crisis Management Mechanisms by Jacob Stokes and Zack Cooper Jude Blanchette writes: He has emphasized adhering to problem orientation, telling us to aim at the problem and proceed from it, regard the discovery of contradictions and understanding and resolving problems as the breakthrough points in our work, go to the root of Xinjiang’s social stability problems, and emphasize aligning problem-solving efforts with the actual situation by solving the problems that present themselves and focusing on solving prominent problems. These connotations of Xi Jinping’s thoughts on governing Xinjiang are very profound and provide us with important methodological guidance. – Center for Strategic and International Studies Project Convergence: An Arena of Innovative Collaboration By Matthew Van Wagenen & Arnel P. David, RealClearDefense: “The Army is converting ideas, prototypes, and various modes of operating (i.e., new ways of fighting) into new capabilities. This is a departure from the past, where a lion share of the budget and programming narrowly focused on incremental upgrades to existing platforms, adding armor, speed, reach, and lethality at exorbitant costs, over long periods of time." The Real F-35 Problem We Need to Solve By Scott Cooper, Defense One: "When Pentagon strategists game out potential near-peer conflicts, they tend to plug in sortie-generation rates for the F-35 Lightning II that reflect the program’s original vision, not the far lower numbers that represent the actual state of things. But if planners intend to count on the F-35 in a battle of any but the shortest duration, the Pentagon and industry must urgently improve their ability to maintain and sustain the most technologically complex (and capable) aircraft in history." How to Safely Trim the Defense Budget By Elbridge Colby, Mackenzie Eaglen & Roger Zakheim, Foreign Policy: “Although preparing for the next pandemic is crucial, there is no justification for trading off security abroad for safety at home when both are necessary." Intelligence Community Not Prepared for China Threat By Adam Schiff, Foreign Affairs: "Our nation’s intelligence agencies are not ready—not by a long shot. Absent a significant realignment in resources and organization, the United States will be ill prepared to compete with China on the global stage for decades to come." China-India: Talk is cheap but never free Oriana Skylar Mastro | The Interpreter There are many reasons all parties should avoid a second Sino-Indian border war; the costs of conversation are only one of many factors that would delay conflict resolution. The United States Has a Role to Play in the Nile by Yasir Zaidan Net Assessment: Understanding America’s Declining Global Influence with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble The Future of Chinese Power By Michael Schuman The policies and practices of the country's dynasties offer insights into how modern Chinese leaders may wield their strength. Gorbachev was right about German reunification Elisabeth Braw | Foreign Policy Margaret Thatcher and François Mitterrand nearly stopped it from happening, but 30 years on, reunification remains the world’s most successful geopolitical experiment. The indications that Turkey activated the radars of its Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft systems in order to detect US-made Greek F-16 fighter jets on their return from the Eunomia exercise on August 27 off Cyprus apparently sounded the alarm in Washington about the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean and reportedly prompted the visits by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Cyprus on September 12 and Greece on September 27-29. – Kathimerini Munqith Dagher writes: What may make matters worse is the possible response of the militias and their military supporters to the American attacks, which may compel the United States to send more troops, thus creating major complications for a potential incoming Democratic White House. Consequently, the prospects for fixing the situation with America after Biden’s victory (for which the Iranians and their proxies in Iraq hope) will be very complex and difficult in practice, which heralds the prospect of a long military and political confrontation between America and Iran on Iraqi soil; Iraq will enter a long, dark tunnel. – Washington Institute Hamdi Malik: No other Iraqi militia has gained enough credits to be given these missions. Kata’ib Hizballah is Iran’s preferred militia and it is evolving as the main force belonging to the resistance in Iraq. Unlike Lebanon or Yemen, where one major militia facilitates Iran’s expansionist policies, several smaller militias function as the Islamic Republic’s proxies in Iraq. But one militant group more than others has the potential to dominate the scene, and that is Kata’ib Hizballah. – War on the Rocks High-End Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Theater Will Require Distributed Sensing By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: “The United States’ military is evolving towards a new way of warfare designed to counter adversaries’ efforts to develop a dominant anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capability." The National Defense Strategy’s Irregular Warfare Annex. Here’s Why It’s so Significant. By Kevin Bilms, Modern War Institute: “Last week, the Defense Department released an unclassified summary of the Irregular Warfare (IW) Annex to the National Defense Strategy." Towards an Epistemology of Grand Strategy: Stereotype, Ideal Type, and the Dematerialization of the Concept By Maurizio Recordati, Strategy Bridge: "Scholars from disparate disciplines have been agonizing over definitions of grand strategy with increasing frequency over the last decades." How the Army Fits Into U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy By Francis P. Sempa, The Diplomat: “The United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy includes an important role for the ground forces of the U.S. Army." A Brief Guide to Maritime Strategy By Jeffrey Becker, Strategy Bridge: "This cultural aversion to strategic studies and thought has deep roots. While speaking to the incoming Naval War College class of 1911, war college founder Stephen B. Luce lamented how operational demands and a preoccupation with technology had drawn the U.S. Navy’s attention away from strategic education. “Very few [U.S. Navy line officers] are studying their profession—the art of war,” Luce observed." After “the War that Never Was”—The Real Beginning By H.E. Williams, Proceedings: “Beginning where Admiral A. James Winnefeld and Mr. Michael J. Morell’s “The War that Never Was: Part 1” finished, the following story offers what the end of the beginning could look like, considering their dire and unlikely ending." American Sea Power at a Crossroads: A Plan to Restore the U.S. Navy’s Maritime Advantage By Bryan Clark, Timothy A. Walton & Seth Cropsey, Hudson Institute: "The U.S. fleet is at an important crossroads. Nearly twenty years after the drive for transformation led to costly and problematic programs such as the littoral combat ship (LCS), Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier, and Zumwalt-class destroyer, the Navy is again starting work on new ships in every vessel category." The Real F-35 Problem We Need to Solve
By Scott Cooper Unless its logistics can be improved, the jet's contributions to a major fight will be far less than Pentagon wargamers are counting on. 
India's Government Is Not Anti-Muslim
By Jagdish N. Singh, September 2, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A general impression has spread across the international media that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, with which India’s current ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is affiliated, is opposed to minorities, Muslims in particular. This is absolutely false. Continue to full article ->
Pentagon’s latest salvo against China’s growing might: Cold War bombers
(Reuters) America is combining its decades-old bombers with cutting-edge weapons to counter Beijing’s advantage in the waterways off the Chinese coast. The U.S. wants to send a message that Chinese ships and land targets can be threatened at any time. Russian and Chinese military harassment is increasing. Should the US be worried? (Military.com) Last week, a Russian armored personnel carrier rammed a U.S. Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle in Syria. China test-fired "carrier killer" missiles into the South China Sea. A massive Russian nuclear submarine surfaced off Alaska, and Russia fighters hit the afterburners to come within 100 feet of a B-52 Stratofortress bomber.
China is ahead in ship, missile & air defense tech: DoD report
(Breaking Defense) The Chinese military has already pushed ahead of the US in areas like shipbuilding, missile defense, ballistic and cruise missile construction, the Pentagon warned today in a blunt new assessment.
Why the Pentagon’s Ground-based Midcourse Defense System needs to be upgraded and expanded
(Forbes) In the midst of a global pandemic and hard-fought election season, it is easy to lose sight of the biggest danger to our democracy. The biggest by far is the threat posed by nuclear weapons.
Navy’s new shipbuilding plan likely to lean toward smaller ships, unmanned platforms https://govmatters.tv/pentagon-to-review-navy-force-structure/
DHS Cyber Storm exercise https://govmatters.tv/takeaways-from-the-cyber-storm-exercise/ DHS OIG: Outdated tech, software holding mission back https://govmatters.tv/outdated-legacy-it-systems-at-dhs/ Now, Navy is thinking small: Need a viable path to a 355-ship fleet, which we didn’t have recently. SecDef Esper has said to go back to the drawing board in fleet design. We have ten operational carrier groups; expect many smaller ships, manned but eventually unmanned. Littoral combat ship: we have only a dozen; should have far above that number. Lisa Burro Russo {?}: ran an exercise to see the end of the world, anticipated potential wrinkles. Whatever conflict happens next may involve civilian sphere, not limited to kinetic but will involve cyber—power grid, food and water supply chains. Emerged confident that they had a handle on most of the [matters]. Christian Bernard, DHS, Ofc of the Inspector-General: govt deals with outdated software; appropriations on a year-to-year basis, but work can't be finished in one year. THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE RED SEA: THE RED MED & CHINESE MARITIME AMBITIONS WITH RARE EARTH MATERIALS8/20/2020
Esper's plans for an even bigger Navy would subtract aircraft carriers and large surface combatants while adding small surface combatants, unmanned ships and submarines, and logistics vessels, according to documents supporting the study groups. More to all that, here.
Reforming Tokyo’s Ballistic Missile Defense is a Priority for Japan’s New Prime Minister
Suga could mark his first policy success as Japan’s new leader by implementing a robust and comprehensive missile defense plan.
Why skepticism, not China, may be the greatest threat to US Pacific strategy
Craig Singleton – Washington Examiner
Global Business Brief // Marcus Weisgerber: Biden defense predictions; Boeing, Northrop join forces; US F-35s on British carrier, and more
Great power competition heats up in the thawing Arctic, and the US must respond
Bradley Bowman and Maj. Scott D. Adamson -- Defense News Russia and China have been busy in a rapidly changing Arctic, and America seems to have barely noticed. Focused elsewhere, the U.S. now finds itself ill-prepared to compete in the thawing, resource-rich arena that also offers adversaries avenues of approach to the American homeland. If America is going to compete effectively against Russia and China, Washington must recognize that the competition is playing out in the Arctic too — and act accordingly. Read more
CHINA:
Pentagon Report: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy By John Grady, USNI News: “China is bent on creating a world-class military that can conduct joint operations across the globe and already boasts the world’s largest navy, according to the Pentagon’s latest annual assessment of the Chinese military."
Deciphering China’s ‘World-class’ Naval Ambitions
By Ryan D. Martinson, Proceedings: "The PLAN’s newest aspiration is to transform itself into a “world-class navy.” The idea of becoming “world class” was not a PLAN invention. Sometime in 2016, China’s head of state Xi Jinping told the PLA to transform itself into a world-class military. This injunction later appeared in Xi’s report at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017, making it the official policy of the Chinese party-state."
Why the Pentagon’s GMD System Needs to Be Upgraded and Expanded
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "In the midst of a global pandemic and hard-fought election season, it is easy to lose sight of the biggest danger to our democracy. The biggest by far is the threat posed by nuclear weapons."
China Rapidly Increasing Nuclear, Naval, and Next-Gen Tech, Pentagon Warns
By Patrick Tucker The PLA is preparing for modern, networked warfare with more artificial intelligence, warships, and even a space station.
Soldier-Scholar (Pick One): Anti-Intellectualism in the American Military
By James Joyner, War on the Rocks: "Crossing the Great Plains on an expedition to Utah in the 1850s, Maj. Charles A. May searched the wagons in an effort to reduce unnecessary baggage. When he reached the wagons of the light artillery battery, Capt. Henry J. Hunt proudly pointed out the box containing the battery library. “Books,” May exclaimed. “You say books? Whoever heard of books being hauled over the Plains?" Guam Needs Aegis Ashore By Shane Praiswater, Defense News: “Mohammed Morsi has been sentenced to 20 years in prison, a former general is head of state, and charges against Hosni Mubarak have been dismissed—it's like 2011 all over again.”
How Do You Actually Measure Military Capability?
By Collin Meisel, Jonathan D. Moyer & Sarah Gutberlet, Modern War Institute: ““The ultimate yardstick of national power is military capability.” So declared RAND analysts in a monograph on measuring national power twenty years ago. Yet, no go-to measure of military assets currently exists beyond one-off net assessments of fighting forces, simple comparisons of military spending, or point estimates of firepower that conflate capabilities with combat power."
Civil-Military Lessons from Latin America by David Pion-Berlin and Andrew Ivey
Report to Congress on Russian Military Doctrine and Strategy
From USNI News: “These documents offer insight into how Russian leaders perceive threats and how Russian military and security policymakers envision the future of conflict."
U.S. Policy Toward Africa: Eight Decades of Realpolitik
By Caleb Slayton, Strategy Bridge: "When Africa might have given the U.S. a clean bill in terms of colonialism, Cohen contends that had early America not been engaged in expanding westward under the Louisiana Purchase or engaged in colonial-type activities in the Philippines, America’s history in Africa could have looked differently."
It is possible, with sustained emphasis, to disentangle from China the supply chains essential to US national security, writes Kori Schake. It isn’t simple, and it isn’t cheap. But America can afford to defend itself, and deepening cooperation with allies will provide the ability to do so.
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"Iranian Power Is Not Inevitable, " 1of2: or The Lessons of Mackinder. Ian Morris, Stratfor.com
"...In the last 10,000 years, the world's most developed societies have almost always been in the band of latitudes that Mackinder called Eurasia's "inner rim," running from the Mediterranean to China. Farming was invented in this area, with the Middle East leading the way around 9500 B.C. and the rest of the inner rim following its example over the next several thousand years. Along with farming came cities and governments, which most parts of the inner rim had developed by 500 B.C. Two hundred and fifty years later, the world's first multiethnic empires comprising tens of millions of subjects controlled most of the inner rim. Because ancient empires could not project their power very far, at any one time the inner rim tended to have four or five regional hegemons, jostling with each other but rarely extending their power into what Mackinder called Eurasia's "outer rim," facing toward the oceans, or its "heartland," far from the seas. However, because Eurasia's inner rim held 75 percent of the world's population and 90 percent of its wealth, its imperial rivalries became the most significant issues in global geopolitics. The planet's balance of power began to change around 1000 B.C., when pastoral nomads on the steppes — the arid, treeless grasslands running from Manchuria to Hungary — first bred horses able to carry riders for long distances. These horsemen in the Eurasian heartland, far more mobile than the armies of the inner rim empires, were able to plunder almost at will and then gallop away before the imperial infantry could respond. For the next 2,500 years, Eurasian history was dominated by a struggle between predators from the heartland — Scythians, Huns, Turks and Mongols, to name just a few — and the empires of the inner rim. China and Iran, which had relatively open frontiers along the steppes, were the regions most exposed to devastation, and their ruling dynasties were regularly overthrown by invaders. India and Europe, shielded by mountains and forests, generally suffered less. The contest between the inner rim and the heartland was eventually overtaken by a new strategic struggle, which pitted the inner rim against the outer, after A.D. 1500. Mackinder labeled this new situation, which still prevailed in his own day, "the Columbian epoch." The great shift was driven by two inventions, both of them pioneered in China but quickly adopted and adapted all along the inner rim. When the new inventions reached Europe, they merged to form a world-conquering package. The first invention was the gun, which military men gradually improved upon until muskets could be fired fast enough to counter nomadic archers on horseback. In 1500, steppe cavalry could still normally defeat volleying infantry; in 1600, they could sometimes win the same victories. But by 1700, they hardly ever could. After that, riders from the heartland no longer seriously threatened the inner rim. The second invention was the oceangoing ship, which could fairly reliably sail for thousands of miles. These ships transformed the balance between the inner and outer rims just as decisively as the gun had altered the dynamic between the inner rim and the heartland. Armed with the new ships and guns, outer rim states could now project power farther and strike harder than any civilization before. The Columbian epoch had arrived. Thanks to their long coastlines, India and the western parts of the Ottoman Empire were the most exposed to outer rim sailors and their guns, while distance and difficulty of access made China and Iran less vulnerable. By 1600, Western Europeans had overrun much of the Americas, built dozens of fortresses around the shores..."
For more information on Halford Mackinder visit:
www.lse.ac.uk/collections/mackinderProgramme/pdf/mackinde...
China's 'Debt-Trap' Diplomacy with Third-World Nations by Lawrence A. Franklin
"Now, PRC Pres. Xi Jinping was being forced by a range of circumstances — a declining economy, the socio-economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic, and a range of natu-ral and demographic disasters and trends — to take precipitate military action before the final window on the path toward global dominance closed for the PRC. "
Five reasons it’s smart to ban Chinese apps
Cleo Paskal — Washington Examiner Both President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are openly talking about emulating India’s ban on some Chinese mobile phone apps. While this may seem trivial, it is actually a surprisingly effective way to hit back at, and protect from, Chinese economic and strategic aggression. India banned 59 Chinese apps after repeated Chinese aggression, including a border clash that left 20 Indian soldiers dead. What India realized was that apps play an important role in China’s espionage and development of weaponized advanced artificial intelligence technology. Read More
The World’s Most Dangerous Alliance
Thomas Joscelyn — The Dispatch On July 8, Xi Jinping spoke with his comrade, Vladimir Putin, by phone. Putin has been one of Xi’s staunchest allies throughout the coronavirus pandemic. And Xi wanted to thank him. The Chinese leader “commended the mutual support and assistance the two countries gave each other at the most trying time of the COVID-19 challenge, an endeavor which added strategic substance to China-Russia relations in the new era,” according to a readout of the call prepared by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Read More
Japan’s rising military
John Yoo, Michael Auslin, and Taro Kono | "The Pacific Century" Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono talks about how the Japanese military has modernized over the past decade and discusses the worsening threats from China and North Korea.
DoD War Games Predict ‘Extremely Destabilizing’ Chinese Military Parity
By Paul McLeary, Breaking Defense: “Worried about America’s eroding dominance at sea, the Pentagon has been running through a series of war games to shake out a plan to stay ahead of the rapid-fire Chinese military modernization effort."
U.S., CHINA:
Can AI Solve the Rare Earths Problem? Chinese and U.S. Researchers Think So By Patrick Tucker, Defense One: “A research effort funded by China and the U.S. could speed up the discovery of new materials to use in electronics."
Putin's military has an aging problem. "Moscow has increased its spending on national defense to the highest level since Soviet times," Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation wrote
Proliferant States Continue to Rely on China for Nuclear-Related Equipment
Andrea Stricker | Research Fellow 
Asia's New Geopolitics: A Conversation With Michael R. Auslin And Robert D. Kaplan
interview with Michael R. Auslin via Foreign Policy Research Institute Hoover Institution fellow Michael Auslin discusses his new book, Asia’s New Geopolitics: Essays on Reshaping the Indo-Pacific, which examines key issues transforming the Indo-Pacific and the broader world, including the history of American strategy in Asia, from the eighteenth century through today.
AMAZON
Xi Jinping's Internal Great Wall quoting Elizabeth Economy via National Interest Like the Great Wall of generations past, Xi’s Internal Great Wall will continue to keep China behind the rest of the world because a nation that suppresses its own people is not a nation the world can trust to do business fairly.
Winter Is Coming
By James A. Winnefeld Jr., Proceedings: "Extended geopolitical cycles usually end in war. A major test of U.S. power, which may already be under way, could signal the end of the current cycle. Winter is coming, and there is much to do to prepare."
Convoys As Echoes of the Past Part II:
Revisiting the Chessboard Model By Harrison Schramm, RealClearDefense: “Thinking about objects moving in continuous ‘free space’ is hard; a key innovation of the Chessboard model is to impose a grid structure on the North Atlantic.” Rushing to Defeat: The Strategic Flaw in Contemporary U.S. Army Thinking By Christopher Parker, Strategy Bridge: "The United States Army has a problem. As it extricates itself from protracted counterinsurgency and stability operations in Afghanistan and reorients towards large-scale combat operations, the Army has realized its adversaries, namely China and Russia, have adopted a security posture bent on undermining its preferred way of war."
Who Is to Blame for the U.S. Military’s Technology Problem?
By Justin Lynch, Modern War Institute: "If monarchy and oligarchy are rule by the few, and aristocracy and democracy are rule by the best and the many, then bureaucracy, Hannah Arendt tells us, is rule by Nobody."
Strengthening Maritime Capability for a Stronger and More Resilient America
By Mike Stevens, RealClearDefense: “Now is the time to enhance and improve America’s maritime industrial base to meet the challenges today ..." China’s Rise as a Global Power Reaches Its Riskiest Point Yet By Rodger Baker, Stratfor Worldview: "China has reached a risky point in its international development where its economic and strategic power is perceived as great enough to require a reply, but are not yet strong enough to withstand a concerted counter-challenge."
Huawei is under a lot of pressure. Fresh US sanctions have cut off the Chinese tech company’s access to vital American technology to a greater extent than ever before. Countries and mobile network operators around the world are now questioning whether Huawei will be able to deliver on its 5G promises. And rising anti-China sentiment in India and elsewhere is not helping matters. – CNN
The Chinese government took steps to boost political policing as a slew of international spats risk sowing domestic unrest, potentially undermining support for the Communist Party. – Bloomberg
The Trump administration is focusing its efforts on engaging in trilateral arms control agreements with Russia and China. This week, the United States and Russia began negotiations over extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, though China has no intentions of joining. However, the administration's effort to bring China into the negotiations distracts from the dynamic of what makes for successful arms control: modernization and deployment of nuclear systems that allow negotiation from a position of strength. AEI’s John Maurer argues that "to maximize our chances of success in arms control negotiations with Russia and China, the United States must embrace a long-term strategy of nuclear modernization, including new ballistic missiles, missile submarines, and nuclear-capable bombers. Only a robust and modernized American nuclear deterrent will provide the leverage necessary to bring adversaries to the table for serious negotiations."
A growing chorus of voices is advising Congress to reduce spending on nuclear modernization in the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2021. This advice is misguided, argues John Maurer in a RealClear Defense op-ed. To build a new arms control framework, the United States must negotiate from a position of strength. Slowing nuclear modernization would end any hope for arms control, even as the United States pursues new negotiations aimed at curbing competition among the United States, Russia, and China. Read here.
Peter Suciu writes: For China to gain naval dominance would require that it could launch and maintain more than the 11 aircraft carriers the United States Navy now operates, but would also need to keep pace with the carriers in service with the Royal Navy, France and Australia. As long as NATO exists it isn’t just the 11 U.S. carriers and potentially nine LHAs in the U.S. fleet, but all of those other carriers. – The National Interest
“Beyond the Beltway” — What’s the Civil-Military Crisis? by Paula Thornhill
Russia’s New Strategy for Nuclear War
By Paul Dibb, The Strategist (ASPI): "The relatively short, six-page document sets out a series of blunt messages designed to impress on its potential enemies just where Russia stands. While it considers nuclear weapons ‘exclusively as a means of deterrence’ and characterises their use as ‘an extreme and compelled measure’, this official declaration sets out in some detail the conditions that could trigger nuclear conflict."
Religious and Cultural Obstacles to China's BRI in the Middle East
By Dr. Mordechai Chaziza, June 12, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The successful implementation of China’s BRI strategy will largely depend on its ability to overcome the Middle East’s weighty political, economic, religious, cultural, and security problems. Continue to full article ->
The United States, China and ‘The Geography of the Peace’
By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: ““The United States must recognize once again, and permanently, that the power constellation in Europe and Asia is of everlasting concern to her, both in time of war and in time of peace.” So wrote Nicholas J. Spykman in The Geography of the Peace, which was published in 1944, when the Second World War was still raging in Europe and Asia, and on the oceans of the world."
American Exceptionalism in the Age of Trump
By Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): "With World War II, President Franklin Roosevelt, his successor, Harry Truman, and others drew the lesson that the U.S. could not afford to turn inward again. They realised that America’s very size had become a second source of exceptionalism."
Defending America’s defenders
Beginning to stand up to a hostile international organizatio
The Aircraft Carrier We Need
By Jerry Hendrix, National Review: "A strategic design update is due." Distributable Platforms and Determined Marines: The Necessity of Operational Art in a 21st Century Marine Corps By Matthew Schultz, Michael Manning, Jeremy Smith, Brian Meade, Matthew Newman & Paul Kozick, Strategy Bridge: "In the coming era of distributable platforms, stand-in forces, and globally-integrated joint combined arms operations, the time has come for the Corps to join the rest of the U.S. military services in embracing the concept of operational art in its foundational, service-level doctrine." Options for the U.S. to Wage Conflict in the Cognitive Domain By Todd Schmidt, DefenseTech: "Current operational environments witness adversaries increasingly avoiding conventional conflict and achieving their objectives through other means of influence. The consequence is a future of persistent, unending great power competition that resides in a gray zone between war and peace."
Bolton still hasn’t grasped that the regime fed him enough disinformation to sustain an empty strategy. The former national security adviser echoes Trump’s gripe that the Obama administration left many messes behind: “The growing Russian, Chinese, Iranian and Cuban influence across the hemisphere had not been a priority” for eight years. Read more here.
Latin America’s criminal groups have leveraged the pandemic to win local support by delivering humanitarian assistance in underserved communities. Such levels of “criminal charity” could complicate the future efforts of Latin America’s weakest states to dismantle and defeat organized crime groups, notes Ryan Berg in an article for the SAIS Review of International Affairs. The pandemic has opened possibilities for criminal groups in Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil to curry favor and employ violence to coerce populations. So far, criminal groups are far outpacing Latin American states in the crucial competition for millions of hearts and minds. Continue here.
IRAN:
German Intel Report Lays Bare Iran’s Attempts to Obtain Nuclear Proliferation Technology By Benjamin Weinthal, FOX News: “In a section titled “Proliferation,” the 181-page Baden-Württemberg state intelligence agency document reviewed by Fox News states that Iran, Pakistan, North Korea and Syria are “still pursuing” such efforts."
For Peace, America Must Negotiate From Strength
By John D. Maurer, RealClearDefense: “In an era of global pandemic, economic downturn, and social unrest, a growing chorus of voices is advising Congress to reduce spending on nuclear modernization in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021. This advice is misguided."
The surge of attacks by Islamic State militants in Iraq displays a quiet return of a group that six years ago threatened Baghdad. In an article for The Islamists, Katherine Zimmerman notes that the Islamic State’s threat to the West remains real. Stamping out the Islamic State and its ability to inspire terror attacks requires more than pressure on ISIS or individual branches, a lesson the US should have learned from its approach to fighting al Qaeda. Read here.
The Middle Kingdom Rises By Brent Ramsey, RealClearDefense: "The People’s Republic of China (PRC) intends to become the world’s dominant military and economic power by mid-century and to soon supplant the U.S. as hegemon in the Indo-Pacific. Admiral Davidson, the Commander-in-Chief, USINDOPACOM stated in April 2018, “China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea (SCS) in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”" CHINA: It’s the Logistics, China By Will Mackenzie, National Defense Magazine: "In protracted warfare, logistics and sustainment capabilities are as important as force composition, something China will struggle to mitigate."  RUSSIA: Moscow's Fifth-Generation Su-57 Fighter Modification Plans By Roger McDermott , Eurasia Daily Monitor: “While Russia’s defense ministry aims to introduce 76 Su-57s by 2027, recent reporting suggests there may well be further modifications to the platform before production can finally commence.” The Strategic Littoral Geography of Southeast Asia By Pete McPhail, Arthur Speyer, Bret Rodgers, Steve Ostrosky, Jesse Burns & Dan Marquis, CIMSEC: "Military decision-makers instinctively think in geographic terms. Southeast Asia’s complex economic, military, political, legal, and environmental layers are best portrayed visually. By spatially portraying information, troops can work their way through geography to comprehend the interaction of these complex layers." Nuclear-Armed Submarines and Strategic Stability in the Indo-Pacific By Stephan Fruehling, The Daily Beast: “When The New York Times reported that Russia had likely deployed a nuclear-armed cruise missile in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear." China and Japan’s Island Dispute By William Choong, the interpreter: "The issue is not whether Beijing would want to challenge Tokyo over the islands. The question is when, and how?" A Moment of Truth for U.S.-Iraq Relations
By John Hannah, RealClearDefense: “Today, the United States and Iraq will launch a strategic dialogue to discuss the future of their bilateral relationship. For Washington, the priority should be determining whether Iraq’s government remains a viable partner worthy of continued U.S. support." U.S.-Iraq Strategic Dialogue and Foreign Influence in Iraq By Ari Cicurel, RealClearDefense: “America and the new government in Baghdad now have an opportunity to turn the page in favor of U.S. and Iraqi interests and curtail the influence of Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow." The Gravity of China’s Space Base in Argentina By Erin Watson-Lynn, the interpreter: "What the South American country stands to gain from the deal is something of a mystery." China: What We Must Do, What We Must Not Do by Gordon G. Chang  The Strategic Competition We’ve Neglected: Confronting China in Mexico By Lindsay Gabow, RealClearDefense: "With the U.S. long focused on terrorism, China’s footprint in Mexico has grown considerably. Wielding soft-power influence, China has established its ability to undermine U.S. interests across our Southwest border." China's Tech Theft a Bigger Challenge Than That of Soviets By Robert Farley, The Diplomat: "In the context of ongoing discussions of Chinese technology theft, it's worth revisiting how the Soviet Union sought to acquire U.S. technology during the Cold War." Japan Could Carry the Day in a U.S.-China Conflict By Bertil Lintner, Asia Times: "Defense-related spending in Japan has traditionally aimed chiefly to shield against neighboring North Korea's nuclear threat. But the new ramped up spending is more clearly pointed towards an expansionist and increasingly assertive China, according to Japanese military insiders." The Chinese View of Western-Russia Competition
By Emil Avdaliani, May 14, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The ongoing competition between Russia and the West is likely to continue unabated for years to come. Beijing will endeavor to widen that gulf by supporting Moscow in its efforts to implement China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East and Eurasia. Continue to full article ->
Staring Into the Abyss of US-China Decoupling
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, June 5, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel resides at the cusp of the widening US-Chinese divide, as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent visit to Israel attests. Pompeo’s visit was for the express purpose of reminding Jerusalem that its dealings with Beijing jeopardize its relationship with Washington. Continue to full article ->
Trump’s New China strategy Must Focus on International Organizations
Richard Goldberg | Senior Advisor
The Marine Corps is starting to form and experiment with the littoral regiment at the heart of its modern-day island-hopping strategy, the head of Marine Corps combat development told USNI News. – USNI News
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Great New Developments on the U.S.-China Decoupling Front by Alan Tonelson
Faced with the erosion of civil-military relations, it is time to reexamine the personnel policy of "veterans' preference," argue Mackenzie Eaglen and Frances Burke for War on the Rocks. As an increasing number of recently retired military personnel fill the civil service roles that are designed to keep civilians involved in US national security structures, this disrupts the US national security ecosystem and the tenuous balance of civil-military relations. Protecting the role of civilians in the Department of Defense should be paramount for the Pentagon and lawmakers alike.
Learn more here.
Benjamin Jensen and Matthew Van Echo write: The idea was not to go to war with China, America’s third-largest trading partner. The idea was to explore coercion and setting conditions in a theater of operation in a manner that provided multiple credible and flexible deterrence and military response options to national decision-makers. As a result, students gained a better understanding of new concepts like the competition continuum and were able to evaluate them in relation to a larger body of literature on coercion, military power, and crisis management. – War on the Rocks
Oriana Skylar Mastro took to the Strength Through Peace blog to argue that the world’s focus is rightly on managing the COVID-19 pandemic and reducing the loss of life. But the challenges of addressing China’s rise have not dissipated — instead, they are increasing — and the United States should focus on potential contingencies in the South China Sea if it is to avoid them.
Continue here.
Net Assessment: Big Trouble in a Little China Strategy? with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble
China’s Ambiguous Missile Strategy Is Risky
By P.W. Singer & Ma Xiu, Popular Science: "The risk with this strategy is that such ambiguity substantially increases the danger of an accidental nuclear exchange due to mistaken assumptions."
Is China in Breach of Its Nuclear-Testing Commitments?
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): "In last month’s executive summary of the 2020 edition of the U.S. State Department’s annual report on global arms-control compliance, a ‘concern’ is raised about possible low-level Chinese nuclear testing at the Lop Nur test site in Xinjiang province."
Daniel Tobin writes: The ambitions articulated by Xi Jinping at the 19th Party Congress underscore that Washington and its allies face a global, strategic rivalry driven as much by ideology and values embodied in competing domestic governance systems as by perceptions of changing power dynamics. While this rivalry differs in many respects from the Cold War, one of the most important differences is that it is a competition to define the rules and norms that will govern an integrated, deeply connected world rather than a world divided into competing camps. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Caution: China’s Nuclear Strategy May Be ‘Nuclear Thoughtlessness’
By Paul Bracken, The Hill: “China’s nuclear strategy is more complex than most public discussions or academic studies suggest." Deterrence in the Pacific: The Chinese Nuclear Dimension By Robbin Laird, SLD.info: "“Rocking the boat” in Asia will look much different in a “heavy” nuclear world than it did when China was barely a nuclear weapon state.”"
China’s strategic interest in the Arctic goes beyond economics
(Defense News) In its Arctic policy published in 2018, China proclaimed itself as a “near-Arctic state,” a label that has since invited controversy.
Securing America From China’s Predatory Economic Tactics
Begins With Protecting Our Businesses By Mark Green, RealClearDefense: “China’s actions to cover up their handling of the outbreak have shed new light on China’s hegemonic intentions."
Can a broke America fight a Cold War with China?
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion The coronavirus has united Americans against Beijing’s aggressions, but it will also devastate the Pentagon budget.
CHINA:
Chinese Navy Submarines Protected By Underground Tunnels By H I Sutton, Forbes: "China is a maritime nation with over 9,000 miles of coastline, dotted with ports. Compared to most other countries, it has a large number of naval bases."
Special Report: U.S. rearms to nullify China's missile supremacy
(Reuters) As Washington and Beijing trade barbs over the coronavirus pandemic, a longer-term struggle between the two Pacific powers is at a turning point, as the United States rolls out new weapons and strategy in a bid to close a wide missile gap with China. 
Pandemic Sets the Stage for a Western-Asian Ideological Contest
By Emil Avdaliani, May 3, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As the shock from the coronavirus pandemic decreases over the coming months, both China and the West are likely to record successes in the economic and political realms. The crisis has set the stage for an ideological struggle between the West and China that will play a crucial role in determining the destiny of Eurasia throughout this decade and the next. Continue to full article ->
Trump’s nuclear policy has failed
(Defense One) Recognizing that blunders and bad ideas have undermined stability and security is the first step toward recovery.
What if military recruiting could screen for wash-outs?
(Military Times) It takes tens of thousands of dollars to get a new service member through recruiting and initial training, and costs the services hundreds of millions a year when new troops are discharged from the military before the end of their first contracts.
Rep. Gallagher: The ‘bad day for The PLA Navy’
(Breaking Defense) The Navy’s decision to tap Wisconsin’s Fincantieri Marinette Marine to build the first 10 of a new class of guided missile frigates last month could be the first real step toward a faster, more numerous and more lethal fleet.
Chinese Navy expanding base in Africa, satellite images confirm
(War Is Boring) The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has stepped up its operations at a base in Africa, as evidenced by satellite imagery.
China ‘won’t win more respect’ if it expands nuclear arsenal following calls from national media, analyst says
(South China Morning Post) Calls for Beijing to expand its nuclear arsenal reflect its rocky relations with Washington, and any reckless moves could damage the nation’s credibility, according to an analyst.
Build a fleet, not a constituency
(Defense News) The U.S. Navy’s long-awaited award of a contract to design and build a new class of frigates has brought with it calls to dramatically expand the planned class of 20 ships to a fleet of 70 or more hulls.
Does a US presidential military experience gap really matter?
(The Diplomat) What are the strategic consequences of leadership that lacks direct military experience?
James Jay Carafano and Riley Walters write: Unless the Quad economies can focus on structural reforms focused on economic freedom as they strive to get their economies back to work, they can expect a struggle to get back to just average economic growth—and even that will not be enough to truly recover. Working together, however, they can better find the strength to do what’s necessary to get their economies moving again. – The Daily Signal
Michael O’Hanlon writes: If we do not listen to that message, the entire domestic basis for a strong United States and an engaged foreign policy leadership role could evaporate. Domestic policy has turned to foreign policy. Both the Pentagon and the candidates should take heed. As we emerge from the emergency response to coronavirus in the months to come, this more than any other is the debate we need to have as a country.- The Hill
Bryan Clark and Dan Patt write: The U.S. military needs new approaches to warfighting if it is going to deter aggression and counter gray-zone tactics from great power and regional competitors. Technology proliferation and post-pandemic budget and experimentation constraints will prevent staying ahead through superior equipment and tactics alone. DoD will need to start enabling what American military leaders have always said is their greatest resource: the creativity and adaptability of their warfighters. – Defense One
Keep Expectations Modest for Iraq’s New Government by Douglas A. Ollivant
Pulling Troops Out of Africa Could Mean Another Endless War by Herman J. Cohen BETWEEN DIPLOMACY AND WAR ALIGNING ENDS AND MEANS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC; hoover's strategika on china4/20/2020
Win Without Fighting
By Hunter Stires, Proceedings: “The United States is devoting significant energy to preparing for great power war, but China is waging a maritime insurgency—and could win without firing a shot."
Towards a Concept of Good Civilian Guidance by Alice Hunt Friend and Mara Karlin
The Nonsense of “Neo-Ottomanism” by Nicholas Danforth
Adi Schwartz: Western Indulgence of Palestinian 'Refugee' Claims Obstructs Peace
by Gary C. Gambill May 31, 2020 https://www.meforum.org/60812/adi-schwartz-how-western-indulgence-of-palestine
Russian Influence Grows in Central Asia
By Kseniya Kirillova, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "Russian influence in Central Asia is not limited to increasing economic integration. As early as October 2015, experts at the Minsk Center for Strategic and Foreign Political Research insisted that Russia was preparing a destabilization scenario intended to encourage conflict among the key governments and forces of the region."
Cutting Carriers, Undermining the Most Useful U.S. Warfighting System
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "Defense News reported this week that a Pentagon office has proposed reducing the number of aircraft carriers in the U.S. fleet from eleven to nine. That may not sound like much, but in operational terms it means that on a typical day the Navy would only be able to have two or three carriers forward deployed near global hot spots."
Strategy And The Continental Commitment
by Williamson Murray via Military History in the News In the 1930s, the British military pundit B. H. Liddell Hart argued that Britain’s participation in the First World War with a massive commitment to France to fight the Germans had been a terrible mistake. Instead, he argued, Britain, as it had supposedly done in the eighteenth and early nineteenth century, should have committed minimal forces to the continent and used its army and navy to attack Germany on the periphery. Liddell Hart’s arguments represented a rephrasing of the “blue water” school in British strategic thinking which had argued that Britain should focus almost entirely on the Royal Navy to the exclusion of spending any resources or committing any troops on the European Continent.
Measuring Power, Power Cycles, and the Risk of Great-Power War
Growing concern that U.S. power has been declining relative to that of Russia and China renews long-standing questions about how we should measure national power. Which nations have the most? Which are gaining and losing power, and when might these shifts portend conflict? Read more »
It's Time to Make a Full and Enduring Commitment to Iraq
American interests will suffer if strategic competition in Iraq is abandoned. U.S. policymakers should pursue a commitment to Iraq before opportunities are lost. The best way to establish that commitment is through robust, long-term, small-footprint assistance to the Iraqi Army. Read more »
'Quad Plus' Meetings Won't Cover China
The “Quad” countries met with several non-Quad countries to help each other amid the coronavirus pandemic. For all the good that can come of these countries working together, the Quad Plus, if sustained, may eventually jeopardize the Quad's primary mission: to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Read more »
U.S. Views Of China Plunge During Corona Crisis
by Michael R. Auslin via Real Clear Politics A new poll by the Pew Research Center provides the clearest snapshot yet of the collapse in American views of China thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. Taken March 3-29, the big takeaway from the survey of 1,000 adults is that 66% now have a negative view of China, compared with 26% favorable. That is a 20% jump in unfavorable ratings since 2017 and a 6% rise since last year.
The Rhymes of History: Beijing’s Nightmare Strategic Scenarios
By Michael Colebrook, Strategy Bridge: "History does not repeat itself. With the exception of general platitudes about the permanence of international tension and the sporadic recurrence of violent conflict, statements about historical patterns and cycles of warfare can at best lead to historiographical confirmation bias and, at worst, can prejudice policymakers into taking counterproductive and unnecessary escalatory measures."
The Rise of the Liberal World Order
By Samantha A. Taylor, War Room: "Many foreign policy and international relations experts are expressing concern about the future of the liberal world order." Undersea Deterrence and Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific By Rory Medcalf, The Strategist (ASPI): "Amid rapid geopolitical change at the start of the 2020s, unfolding now in the Covid-19 crisis, nuclear weapons manifest grim continuity with the previous century. Especially persistent is a capability that has existed since the 1960s: the deployment of nuclear weapons on submarines." Getting the Pacific Deterrence Initiative Right By Benjamin Rimland & Patrick Buchan, The Diplomat: “The PDI will undoubtedly set the groundwork for U.S. defense posture in Asia for the foreseeable future. Getting it right matters." What We Can Learn Today From the Victory of the Osama bin Laden Raid By William H. McRaven & Michael Leiter, The Washington Post: "For those of us who played a small part in the mission that led to bin Laden’s death, this anniversary reminds us of something else: how to best protect our country." Colin S. Gray: A Reminiscence by David J. Lonsdale On Deterrence, Defense and Arm Control: In Honor of Colin S. Gray By Keith B. Payne, National Institute for Public Policy: "The scope and breadth of Colin’s curiosity and writing far transcended any single topic. This brief discussion focuses only on a single enduring area of his scholarly interest: deterrence theory, policy and associated strategic force considerations, including arms control." RIP Dave Dilegge By Dave Dilegge, Small Wars Journal: "Dave Dilegge passed away Saturday morning. It's a shock to his family and a great loss to our small wars community." Dave Dilegge, the ‘grandfather of urban warfare studies,’ has died (Military Times) For Dave Dilegge, the days usually started at 3 a.m. as he began to scour the internet for the latest military and national security news he’d compile for Small Wars Journal. The Evolving Nature of War By Douglas J. Feith & Shaul Chorev, National Institute for Public Policy: "Throughout history, wars generally hinged on clashes of arms. To win, a party had to defeat its enemy’s military forces. For the United States since the Vietnam War of the 1960s and 1970s, however, the only conflict of this conventional model was the Gulf War of 1990-91."  Colin Gray and the Revival of Classical Geopolitics By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: "Colin S. Gray, who died in late February after a long battle with cancer, was one of the great strategic thinkers of our time. He authored more than 30 books and 300 articles, founded the National Institute for Public Policy, served as a defense advisor to American Presidents and British Prime Ministers, and taught international relations and strategic studies at the University of Reading in England." India and Pakistan Exchange Fire with Sameer Lalwani Deterrence, Norms, and the Uncomfortable Realities of a New Nuclear Age by Gerald C. Brown Defining Defeat By Kevin Benson, Strategy Bridge: " Defining such a term in doctrine is critical when attempting to link tactical actions to conditions that attain policy objectives. In essence, doctrine, while not dogma or regulation, guides thinking about warfare." The Importance of the Strategic Level: Germany in the Second World War By Lorris Beverelli, Strategy Bridge: "It is widely agreed that there are three levels of war. From the general to the local, they are the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. Strategy, simply defined, is the alignment of means and ways to accomplish a political end. Strategy is about obtaining success from war through a clearly defined theory of victory. Each level of war is essential to obtain this success, and are all equally important." A Look at Strategic Geography for Pacific Defense: Putting the Chinese Military Challenge Into Strategic Context By Robbin Laird, DEFENSE.info: Notably, it has not led with the use of military power as its key instrument, but has combined manufacturing growth, supply chain dominance (enabled by the Western approach to globalization), investments within the West and the Third World, along with sophisticated means for political influence and information warfare." Sun Tzu and the Coronavirus By Tunku Varadarajan, Hoover Institution: " A real question in Chinese literature, Ms. Nylan says, is what you do with bad news. “And this is right across the board. The Confucian ‘Analects’ talks about this, the Daoist philosopher Zhuangzi talks about this, and Sun Tzu does, too.”" The Navy’s Crisis of Special Trust and Confidence by Doyle Hodges Reimagine the ARG/MEU Team By Andrew Roscoe, Proceedings: "The amphibious ready group (ARG) and Marine expeditionary unit (MEU) construct is a holdover from the Cold War that is failing to keep pace with 21st-century conflict and the needs of combatant commanders." Cooperative Deployments: An Indispensable Tool for Preparing for the High-End Fight By David Wallsh & Eleanore Douglas, CIMSEC: “Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Admiral Gilday’s December 2019 Fragmentary Order (FRAGO), “Design for Maintaining Maritime Superiority,” emphasizes the importance of building alliances and partnerships to enhance U.S. warfighting capability, with a particular focus on “full interoperability at the high end of naval warfare.”" Three Reasons Air Advising is Essential to America’s National Defense Strategy By Ryan Hill, Small Wars Journal: "The U.S. Air Force has five historic and strategic core missions: Air and Space Superiority, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), Rapid Global Mobility, Global Strike, and Command and Control (C2). These missions have served the nation well over the decades; however, as America changes its defense strategy, more may be required of its air service." Strengthening Central Asian Security By Stephen Blank, RealClearDefense: "Central Asia lives in a dangerous neighborhood. It is situated between two resurgent empires: Russia and China. It includes Afghanistan in its borders, and despite the February 29 agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban, the Taliban broke the treaty within 72 hours. Therefore, Central Asian governments are all conducting what has been called a multi-vector foreign policy to balance between Moscow, Beijing, the EU in Brussels, Washington, and other players like Japan, South Korea, and India." It Was Grand, But Was it Strategy?
Revisiting the Origins Story of Grand Strategy By David Morgan-Owen, Strategy Bridge: "Recalling the experience of working on the grand strategy volumes of the British Government’s official history of the Second World War, Sir Michael Howard remarked that “the editor never told me what Grand Strategy was, and none of my colleagues seem to have asked.” Finding no definition of the term, Howard was obliged to make up his own."  Why Was the U.S. So Late to Recognize the China Threat By Bradley A. Thayer & Lianchao Han, RealClearDefense: "The recent who-is-weak-on-China verbal war between Biden and Trump captures a fundamental issue in the 2020 race: how to confront China." U.S., CHINA: U.S. Tightens China Export Controls on Military Use Concerns By Ankit Panda, The Diplomat: "The United States Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced new rules on Tuesday that will tighten the export of certain sensitive technologies to end-users in China on fears that they might find their way into use by the Chinese armed forces." White House Releases National Strategy for 5G Security By Brandi Vincent, NextGov: "The strategy focuses on four lines of effort and will guide how the government approaches 5G for the near future." Non-Traditional Defense Companies – Unique Military Capabilities By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: "The idea is that DoD acquisition can benefit not only from access to the unique products such companies produce but from their alternative approaches to design, production and sustainment." Killing for the Republic
By Paul Johstono, Strategy Bridge: "What are the relationships between citizen-soldiers, civic virtue, and patriotism?"
The Case for Change
By David H. Berger, Marine Corps Gazette: “The United States Marine Corps I lead in 2020 finds itself, like the rest of the U.S. defense establishment, at a crossroads." Still First to Fight? Shaping the 21st Century Marine Corps By Frank G. Hoffman, FPRI: “Marine Force Design 2030The Marine Corps has earned its reputation in battle, but it has also excelled at anticipating demands for new capabilities to deal with the changing character of war.
Ben Lowsen on Chinese PLA Ground Forces
(The Diplomat) Assessing the future trajectory of PLA ground forces development.
Patriot deployment to Iraq is helpful, but insufficient against Iran
(Defense News) The eviction of U.S. forces from Iraq represents a major strategic objective for the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Tehran has used its extraordinary influence in Baghdad to push for an American departure regardless of the interests of the Iraqi people.
A Chat with the Commandant: Gen. David H. Berger on the Marine Corps’ New Direction with Gen. David H. Berger and Ryan Evans
China’s Strategic Assessment of India by Yun Sun
China's Defense Spending Is Larger Than It Looks
By Frederico Bartels, Defense One: “An early lesson emerging from China's handling of the COVID-19 emergency is that Beijing still manipulates data to fit its desired narrative."
Strategika Issue 63: Should The United States Leave The Middle East?
via Strategika Strategika Issue 63 is now available online. Strategika is an online journal that analyzes ongoing issues of national security in light of conflicts of the past—the efforts of the Military History Working Group of historians
Leaving The Middle East: The Fallacy Of A False Dichotomy
by Admiral James O. Ellis Jr. via Strategika In classical logic, the false dichotomy, or false dilemma, is defined as an argument where only two choices are presented yet more exist, or a spectrum of possible choices exists between two extremes. False dilemmas are usually characterized by “either this or that” language but can also be characterized by the omission of choices. This insidious tactic has the appearance of forming a logical argument, but under closer scrutiny it becomes evident that there are more possibilities than the either/or choice that is presented.
Mark F. Cancian writes: Gone are tanks and capabilities for sustained ground combat and counterinsurgency. Instead, the corps focuses on long-range and precision strike for a maritime campaign in the Western Pacific against China. But this new Marine Corps faces major risks if the future is different from that envisioned or if the new concepts for operations in a hostile environment prove more difficult to implement than the Marine Corps’ war games indicate. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
MH-47G Chinook Special Operations Helicopter
From Air Force-Technology: "The first new-build MH-47G helicopter was delivered to the USASOC in September 2014." U.S., MIDDLE EAST: CENTCOM Pushes a Dubious Carrier Strategy By David Larter, Defense News: "U.S. Central Command is doubling down on a two-carrier strategy of questionable value and crippling consequences for Navy readiness." U.S., INDO-PACIFIC: Indo-Pacom Presses All Domain Ops; Sends Plan to Hill Soon By Paul McLeary, Paul McLeary: “"For its backbone," Adm. Davidson said, "we need a joint -- joint -- network of training ranges capable of meeting the exercise, experimentation, and innovation objectives of the new warfighting concept.""
‘Behavioral Indicators’: Avoiding Self-Defeat in Countering Insider Threats
By Frank Tortorello, War Room: "In the counter-insider threat (CIT) world of the United States Department of Defense (DoD), the concept of a “behavioral indicator” is a primary basis for deciding whether an individual ought to be considered a threat to DoD resources."
What Compelled the Roman Way of Warfare? Killing for the Republic
By Rebecca Burgess, Strategy Bridge: "Any polity can field an army through compulsion or other violent means. What matters more is what makes your average person choose to stay on the battlefield." |
GREAT POWER COMPETITION EXAMINED
Dr. Colin S. Gray
GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS
ATLAS PRO YOUTUBE
DOUGLAS BARRIE: SPACE DEFENSE
THOMAS BUSSING: RAYTHEON MISSILE DEFENSE, STRATEGIEST
JAMES ACTON: NUCLEAR MISSILE DEFENSE
DR. MICHAEL PILLSBURY
AMERICA NEEDS NEW ALLIANCES
CENTER FOR POLITICAL & MILITARY POWER
SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA ANYMORE
THE QURAN & MORAL STRATEGY FOR THE LONG WAR
WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS
THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM
HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE PELOPONNESIAN WAR
THUCYDIDES TRAP IS GREAT POWER COMPETITION
CENTER STRATEGIC, BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS: U.S. GRAND STRATEGY
DAVID P. GOLDMAN COLUMN ASIA TIMES
HOW BEST TO UNDERSTAND U.S. - CHINA RELATIONS
STRATEGY BRIDGE
THE NEW ASIAN OBSERVER
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November 2020
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