U.S. WAR DOMINANCE QUESTIONED
Wagner Group And The IRGC: The Rise Of Self-Sustaining Military Proxies
The Black Sea Strategic Triangle In 2023 And Beyond
John Taylor: Where Should The Fed Funds Rate Be To Combat Inflation?
Persuasion, Coercion, and Compellence
China Has Three Roads to Taiwan: The US Must Block Them All
Nine Recommendations to Presidential Candidates on China Policy
China’s brokerage of the agreement to restore ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a major turning point for the Middle East. But, Beijing may find its regional relations undermined if implementation of the deal fails
According to Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan, China has three roads to victory over Taiwan, and the US must act urgently to obstruct all of them.
Annika Ganzeveld, Zachary Coles, Amin Soltani, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, and Frederick W. Kagan write: Iranian officials have also emphasized the importance of indoctrinating and ideologizing the population, frequently calling on educational institutions and the media to “explain the issues related to hijab and chastity.” These policies do not address Iranian grievances about the government’s inability to stabilize the Iranian economy, disregard for the rights of women and religious minorities, and crackdown on civil liberties such as freedom of speech. – Institute for the Study of War
Brandon Patterson and Dino Bozonelos write: Thus, however iniquitous they believed it to be, British leaders concluded that a relatively intact Turkish empire was vital to holding back a Russian drive toward the straits, and ultimately the Middle East. Liberalism was forced to compromise given the geopolitical realities. Britain’s defense of Turkey did not imply any degree of ideological approbation or compatibility of domestic institutions, nor did it require an alliance—the arrangement was pragmatic and conditional. The United States will be obliged to make similar calculations moving forward, wherein Turkey is neither entirely adversarial nor an ally, but something in between. – The National interest
A Year After Germany’s “Sea Change,” Policy Change Remains Elusive, by George Bogden
Iran, China and the Panama Canal: Is the US Being Encircled? by Lawrence A. Franklin
The Reagan Institute released its first National Security Innovation Base Report Card report card,
The report card's advice for the Pentagon:
"Big Tech” Is a Big Deal in the Strategic Competition with China
Klon Kitchen | AEIdeas
Technology has always been a key variable in geostrategic change. Klon Kitchen notes that to fully leverage the private sector’s capability, the US must deliberately address three key challenges to the American science and technology enterprise. First, America must confront Chinese technological theft and aggression. Second, the US must help allies understand that a strategy of “regulate first and ask questions later” will hurt—not help—the West and risk ceding the advantage to Beijing. Finally, facts and geopolitical realities must constrain domestic debates about technology and innovation. Ultimately, Western tech companies and the US government must recognize that the long-term interests of both are better served through national security partnerships. Continue here.>>
WAR-GAMING CHINA: THE RESULTS
CHINA BEGINS WAR PREP
How China Understands and Assesses Military Balance
China sees itself as the weaker side in the overall military balance with the United States, largely because it has made only limited progress in the key areas that will define future warfare. Those include informatization and system-of-systems–based operations.
Read more »
Protests across Iran as schoolgirl poisonings spread nationwide
The chain of suspected poisoning attacks on girls' schools continued unabated, prompting furious Iranians to chant against authorities who are scrambling for answers.
Saudi Arabia moves forward with bids for nuclear plant
The kingdom has received bids to build its first nuclear power plant and South Korea is reportedly expressing interest.
Tehran Regime Targets U.S. Homeland -- Kill Lists and Kidnappings by Benjamin Weinthal
March 1, 2023
AFGHAN POLICY TRAP Read more »
The U.S. 'Policy Trap' in Afghanistan: A Look Back
Ambassador L. Paul Bremer III on Iraq: Twenty Years After the Fall of Saddam Hussein
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
February 24, 2023
Rethinking Assumptions About China
By Robert Peters, RealClearDefense: "If the war in Ukraine is teaching the United States anything, it is that great powers can unexpectedly suffer battlefield defeat because expectations and assumptions about their military prowess are outdated."
John Roy Price’s memoir of welfare policy under Richard Nixon is a time capsule of policy and politics.
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In our eagerness to appreciate sexual difference, it is important not to reduce women to something less than what they are.
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HOW DOMESTIC POLICY SHAPES FOREIGN POLICY; THE BATTLE OF YARMOUK AND THE EXPANSION OF ISLAM
NEW DELHI: A BLUE NAVY ARRIVES; SOUTH KOREA MAY GO NUCLEAR; EXAMINING GREAT BATTLE LEADERSHIP
The Era of Coalitions: The Shifting Nature of Alignments in Asia
Zack Cooper | ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa
Emily Estelle Perez | American Enterprise Institute
Putting Slack and Margin Back in the Military
Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas
Matching the Defense Budget to Strategy
Elaine McCusker and Emily Coletta | AEIdeas
The Military Should Turn Its Network Innovation Upside Down
John G. Ferrari | Military Times
Can the Mujahedin-E-Khalq Survive Its Leader’s Death?
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com
MARINE CORPS TAKES ON CHINA INC.
Navy Readies New Tools, Training After Connecticut Submarine Collision
By Megan Eckstein, Defense News: “The U.S. Navy submarine force is nearly done implementing reforms following an October 2021 undersea collision of attack submarine Connecticut."
How to Keep War With China From Being a Pick-Up Game
By Bryan Clark, Defense One:"INDOPACOM needs a joint force headquarters now, not when crisis arrives."
Improving Foreign Policy Outcomes Requires Investment in Alternative Perspectives
By Heather Levy, Strategy Bridge: "The failure of national security planners to adequately incorporate multiple perspectives into United States foreign policy has proven costly both financially and in terms of failure to achieve policy objectives."
How to Rebalance the Navy’s Strategic Culture
By Scott Mobley, Proceedings: "To be most effective, the U.S. Navy’s culture must equally leverage three pillars: operational, technocentric, and strategy-centric influences."
Assessing the National Security Strategy, with Christopher Preble, Melanie Marlow, and Zack Cooper
The Pentagon’s new defense strategy is out. Now the real work begins, experts say
The new National Defense Strategy keeps the Pentagon’s focus locked on China
Three key takeaways from the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy
Tear up the National Defense Strategy and start again, recognizing reality
DoD’s Kendall Says ‘Revolving Door’ Is Too Thick
By Tiny Tim, The War Zone: “The Defense Department’s top procurement official is taking aim at watchdog-type laws that are put in place to discourage corruption in government.”
The Evolution of America’s China Strategy
By Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): ". . . The Pentagon thus refers to China as its ‘pacing challenge’."
CCP Constitutional Change Strengthens Xi’s Power but Avoids Total Personality Cult
By Masaaki Yatsuzuka, The Strategist (ASPI): "Why was the party chairmanship not restored?"
The Case for Getting Rid of the National Security Strategy, by Justin Logan and Benjamin Friedman
Keeping Civil-Military Relations Civil, with Risa Brooks, Alice Hunt Friend, and Ronald Krebs
TACTICAL NUCLEAR DETERRENCE
FDD IRAN Read Full Monograph
Beheading the Hydra
By Seth Cropsey, RealClearDefense: "The U.S.’ Brittle Logistical System is a Crucial Vulnerability in Great-Power War."
Strategika Issue 82: Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Deterrence, Air Defense, And Munitions Production In A New Missile Age
by Thomas Karako via Strategika
It's Not Easy Being a Women (Or a Girl) in Turkey by Burak Bekdil
December 30, 2022
WAR GAME CHINA Bloomberg CNN CSIS DefenseScoop Taiwan News
Sudan Moves Forward on Forming Civilian Government. Sudanese political parties on Monday began final talks on a deal to transition to a civilian government. Negotiating parties agreed to an outline deal last month, but critics said it was unrepresentative. Other remaining issues include the dissolving of institutions established by ousted leader Omar al-Bashir, transitional justice, security reform, and ongoing resistance from former rebel leaders. Reuters UN News
China Accelerating Military Ties with Africa. China is boosting its security influence in Africa, according to data from the RAND corporation. The data shows that China is accelerating arms transfers to African countries and increasing the deployment of Chinese private military and security contractors (PMSCs) to protect African infrastructure. The data also shows that most African countries that received Chinese military support have also received Russian security aid. Of note is the fact that most Chinese PMSCs in Africa mainly provide defensive services, namely for Chinese industrial projects. South China Morning Post
The Cockroach and the Sparrow
By Matthew Omolesky, The American Spectator: "A fable about Russian dictators offers hope against hope about the end of the country’s dynasty of despotism."
China’s Nukes Use U.S. Technology
By Bill Gertz, The Washington Times: “Pentagon says growing stockpile built through legal, illegal means.”
Don’t Drag the Military into Politics
Kori Schake | War on the Rocks
Americans’ respect for their military is plummeting. Kori Schake argues that if America wants to retain a military that brings all parts of the citizenry together into an effective fighting force, it should better insulate the military from being a pawn in political disputes. This will require more discipline from military leaders and greater recognition by politicians of the damage they are doing to US national security by castigating the professionalism and nonpartisan commitment of America’s armed forces. Military leaders should stick to the core functions of the profession and master saying, “That’s a more appropriate question for the secretary of defense.” Politicians should stop hiding behind uniforms when enacting unpopular policies. Politicizing the military will make it weaker—not stronger. Learn more here. >>
The Armed Conflict Survey 2022: Americas Regional Analysis
The fast-growing business of the synthetic drug fentanyl, largely controlled by Mexican drug-trafficking organisations, is drawing international attention to the Americas.
Addressing geopolitical drivers and security spillovers, The Armed Conflict Survey 2022 provides an assessment of the fentanyl emergency and what it is likely to mean for US counter-narcotics as the opioid crisis in North America worsens.
Congress Missed an Opportunity to Ask the Right Questions on Yemen
Katherine Zimmerman | Hill
The House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and Global Counterterrorism recently held a hearing on the situation in Yemen. Katherine Zimmerman argues that while the hearing was valuable, Congress missed the opportunity to ask the right questions. Yemen’s location means the US has a permanent interest in ensuring that the situation does not threaten maritime security in the gulf, and the Biden administration has leaned heavily into diplomacy to help end Yemen’s war. Congress should have taken this opportunity to ask what leverage the US holds over the Houthis in negotiations, who is responsible for negotiating the release of US citizens, what actions the US can take to prevent human rights violations, and how USAID is balancing emergency aid to Yemen. Continue here. >>
Military Expenditure: Transparency, Defence Inflation and Purchasing Power Parity
Set amidst the context of an increasingly challenging global economic outlook and a more fraught security environment following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, this paper discusses recent developments in military expenditure and the factors that must be considered in order to make accurate assessments and comparisons.
Japan's transformational national-security documents
In releasing three historic strategy documents in December, Japan announced that it will follow a new approach to national security in the coming years defined by higher defence spending, the acquisition of counterstrike missile capabilities and a push to overcome the civil-military divide that has long undermined its defence sector.
China Pursuing Counter to US JADC2. China is reportedly developing a military operational concept called Multi-Domain Precision Warfare (MDPW) to counter the Pentagon’s Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) concept, according to US defense officials. MDPW reportedly aims to replicate JADC2’s coordination of command and control, communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance to identify and exploit vulnerabilities in enemy systems. Officials add that the Chinese military is looking at expanding systems destruction warfare, where warfare is not solely focused on military forces but also targets underlying systems and infrastructure. C4ISRNET
A New Cyber Strategy To Restore Civil-Military Normalcy
By Marc Losito, RealClearDefense: “Milton Friedman, the late-Nobel laureate, used the analogy of "a fool in the shower" to describe the scalding consequence of policy overcorrection.”
These Are The Top 7 Times The Military Went Woke In 2022
By Micaela Burrow, Daily Caller: “The Department of Defense (DOD) doubled down on “woke” initiatives in 2022 amid rising criticism from experts and politicians that the focus on progressive issues could undercut military readiness.”
The 1973 Arab-Israeli War:
Insights for Multi-Domain Operations
By Nathan Jennings, AUSA: “The United States Army is embarking on a new era as it adopts Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) as its central warfighting concept.”
Trends That Will Define the Coming Years
The world is always changing, but some changes are more important than others. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely be remembered as the start of a new era in geoeconomics. The uncertainty and tit-for-tat measures kicked off an energy crisis. And the war renewed focus on the growing divide between the West and a nascent revisionist bloc led by China and Russia. It is difficult to see a path back to the status quo ante bellum, but several major trends that will define the next decade have become clear. They include deglobalization, stagflation and the bursting of the tech bubble.
This Backgrounder unpacks the contentious U.S.-China trade relationship.
American Defense Priorities After Ukraine, by Frank Hoffman
Forbes Business Aerospace & Defense If Russia Is This Bad At Conventional Warfare,
What Does That Tell Us About Its Nuclear Posture?
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "Russia’s military performance in Ukraine has proven to be, in the words of the Economist’s year-end edition, “spectacularly incompetent.”"
The United States is engaged in a halfhearted tech war with China.
Underneath all their discussion of the common good, Catholic integralists have a repugnant view of political authority.
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THE PACING THREAT CALLED CHINA
BIDEN'S NSS DOC DEAD LETTER
Jonathan Spyer: Is Erdoğan's Turkey Aiding in a Jihadist Takeover of Northwest Syria?
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
November 4, 2022
The Marine Corps Is Facing a Crisis That Will Shape Its Future Identity
By Steve Balestrieri, Sandboxx News: "The face of war is changing rapidly, and the Marine Corps is facing a crisis regarding where it fits in the U.S.’s future national defense strategy . . ."
Biden’s Nuclear Posture Review Is Too Timid for 2022
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): “Nuclear weapons are serious capabilities, and declaratory policies are serious commitments."
Big Defense Is The Closest Thing We Have To A Real Industrial Policy
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "The question U.S. policymakers may need to face in the years ahead is how to preserve a robust rate of innovation . . ."
Confucian Natural Law?
How compatible are East and West?
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The Return of Cartography, by Nicholas Danforth
The Path Ahead in Turkey’s Upcoming Electoral Campaign, by James Ryan
Debating the National Defense Strategy, with Christopher Preble, Zack Cooper, and Melanie Marlowe
How China Views It: Sino-American Technology Competition
Dan Blumenthal, Gregory Graff, and Christian Curriden | American Enterprise Institute
China May Never Become a Superpower
By Doug Bandow, 1945: “The CCP overestimates its position vis-à-vis the West, which could bring China grief."
How Do You Actually Measure the Success of a Fighter Program?
By Alex Hollings, Sandboxx News: "Right now, the United States has at least two next-generation fighter programs in development . . ."
After the Next War
By Seth Cropsey, RealClearDefense: "The U.S. must Grasp the Reality of Sustained Competition"
Russia’s Defense Industry Is in Serious Trouble Due to Sanctions
By Robert Farley, 1945: “Despite claims of self-sufficiency, it turns out that Russian industry needs Western components and Western support."
If You Think the Deficit Is Bad Now, It Will Soon Get Worse
Mark J. Warshawsky | Hill
In July, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the federal government budget deficit would be 3.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023. The author's rough calculation is that the 2023 deficit will come in at 6.4 percent of GDP, or nearly 70 percent higher than the CBO projection.
How China Views It: Sino-American Technology Competition
Dan Blumenthal, Gregory Graff, and Christian Curriden | October 2022
Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Eberstadt | American Enterprise Institute | February 16, 2021
Redefining Irregular Warfare:
Legitimacy, Coercion, and Power
By David H. Ucko & Thomas A. Marks, Modern War Institute: "The Department of Defense is working on a new definition of irregular warfare, and the stakes are surprisingly high."
Deterrence Via Mutual Vulnerability? Why Not Now
By Keith B. Payne, National Institute for Public Policy: “The Defense Department’s top procurement official is taking aim at watchdog-type laws that are put in place to discourage corruption in government.”
China: Xi, the Party, and the Endless Struggle
By Jennifer Hsu, the interpreter: "China’s growth model, one funded by debt, is unsustainable."
TARGET TAIWAN; HOW U.S. LEADERSHIP COUNTERS CHINA & REMEMBERING THE END OF 20TH CENTURY ORDER
The Pentagon Gets the Better Part of a Trillion Dollars a Year. Why Isn’t That Enough?
Mackenzie Eaglen | Defense One
Despite an annual budget over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, money is always tight at the Defense Department. Mackenzie Eaglen points out that about three-quarters of the defense budget is preordained: spending that is essentially on autopilot. This leaves little flexibility for any meaningful change or truly strategic choices. The only branch with the power to break up this calcified system is one that has long been complicit in its sedimentation: Congress must take the reins and steer the Defense Department into immediately advancing the National Defense Strategy by recognizing that the military needs procurement the most. Read More >>
Is the Pentagon at Risk of Running Out of Weapons?
John G. Ferrari | Dispatch
The General Accountability Office (GAO) recently released a report concluding that the Department of Defense lacks the direction and insight to mitigate industrial-base risk. In other words, the Pentagon will likely run out of bullets and weapons in a protracted, multifront war. John G. Ferrari argues that the answer to rebuilding our arsenal is not consolidating policies, as the GAO report suggests. Rather, we should fund procurement, stop “contracting-to-monopoly,” eliminate red tape, focus on eliminating China from our supply chains, and invest in the American workforce. Learn more here >>
The Secret to Understanding Irregular Warfare
By Douglas A. Borer & Shannon C. Houck, Small Wars Journal: “Irregular warfare is how the Taliban drove the Western Alliance out of Afghanistan, and it is how Ukraine is presently checking Russia’s invasion of its territory."
Taiwan's Message for China: We Have a Nuke-Like Weapon by Gordon G. Chang
Deterrence is Not Rocket Science:
It is More Difficult
By Keith B. Payne, National Institute for Public Policy: “In a recent published article, two physicists offered remarks that illustrate a fundamental basis for the stark differences reflected in the public debate about deterrence.”
The Fed’s past complacency undermines its present effort to fight inflation.
Erdoğan Purges Turkish Intel to Hide Corrupt Tehran Ties by Abdullah Bozkurt
August 15, 2022
Defending Taiwan offers a road map for US policy to deter and defend against Chinese aggression toward Taiwan.
Is Trump’s acquittal compared to Nixon’s forced resignation merely the result of the different media environment?
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Battle of the Dirigistes
In France, the far Left and far Right are divided by their attitudes on immigration and national identity, but on economic matters they are not terribly far apart.
THE FALL OF TAIWAN, WHAT IS TO BE DONE & HOOVER INSTITUTION ON THE ISLAMIC WORLD
The Pentagon Is in Desperate Need of an Intervention from the Top by Dustin Walker
Putin's No Chess Master // Eliot A. Cohen, The Atlantic: Some believe Putin has not only Ukraine, but the whole West, exactly where he wants it. A more balanced consideration is in order.
Iran to remain a key partner for Ethiopia in the Tigray conflict
Ethiopia is Iran’s gateway to the Horn of Africa and the broader East Africa region. By helping Ethiopia in its ongoing conflict with the rebel Tigray Defense Forces, Iran is preserving its so-called strategic depth in the region to bolster its influence.
Autumn 2021 Issue
Hoover Institution Publishes New Papers About China's "Sharp Power" On The Continent Of Africa
Administration Urges Congress to Fund Semiconductor Production Amid New Data on Shortage
We Mustn’t Cede the Middle East to China
By Harry Halem & Daniel J. Samet, RealClearDefense: “The Biden administration's emphasis on the Sino-American rivalry in general and the Asian theater, in particular, is correct. However, his administration has especially foundered in the Middle East, which will damage America’s China strategy more than any other mistake."
Beijing’s grand strategy: A Sino-centric order
Dan Blumenthal | Jewish Policy Center
While China poses a formidable challenge to US global leadership, the Chinese Communist Party’s near-constant political purges, darker economic prospects, and demographic problems mean the US still has a chance to deny the hegemony over Asia sought by Xi Jinping and build an affirmative alternative to Sino-centrality.
Pacific Century: What's In Store For Asia In 2022?
interview with Michael R. Auslin, Derek Mitchell, Dan Twining via The Pacific Century
Predictions for the Indo-Pacific by the heads of the International Republic Institute and the National Democratic Institute.
CHINA'S HYPERSONIC MOMENT IS HERE
As China Pursues Nuclear Arms Buildup, Biden Opts for Debate at United NationsBy BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | January 3, 2022
The most important number for China policy
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
The $780 billion increase in American spending on Chinese stocks and bonds since 2016 represents a miserable policy failure that dwarfs the impact of the US-China trade war.
Beijing's top arms controller insists China is not "dramatically expanding" its nuclear capabilities, despite recent reporting that suggests otherwise, including from the Pentagon in November (PDF). The remarks come from China's Fu Cong, who is in charge of the Foreign Ministry's arms control department.
Iran’s reserve of last resort: Uncovering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces order of battle
The empires strike back
America is threatened by neo-imperialists
A Strategy to Counter Chinese Influence Operations
By Connor Fiddler, RealClearDefense: “Only recently has the U.S. government started to dedicate more resources to countering FIO. However, the response has been insufficient.”
Here Are the Hypersonic Weapons Russia and China Have in Service
By Jane Doe, The Diplomat: “Currently, only two nations possess operational hypersonic weapons, China and Russia.”
Guelzo’s biography of Lee is ultimately a defense of the modern nation-state that emerged in the nineteenth century and replaced the federal union.
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Explainer: The Islamic State In 2021
by Cole Bunzel via Wilson Center
What is the status of ISIS in the Middle East and North Africa at the end of 2021? Which branches or affiliates were the most active? Which the least active? What kind of attacks or activities has ISIS been carrying out? How have trendlines changed? And why?
THE QUAD HAS NO NAVY
What To Expect When You’re Expecting A National Defense Strategy
Thomas Spoehr, Bradley Bowman, Bryan Clark and Mackenzie Eaglen — War on the Rocks
In July, Rear Adm. Mike Studeman, director of intelligence for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned that “it’s only a matter of time” until China resorts to military force and suggested that U.S. forces are not ready for that “very bad day.” Meanwhile, Russia continues to maneuver its forces aggressively on NATO’s eastern flank, Iran inches toward a nuclear weapons capability, North Korea builds its missile arsenal, and the Taliban has taken control of Afghanistan. The new National Defense Strategy that the Biden administration is writing should reckon with these challenges and the ramifications of rapidly expanding global threats. Read more
The Taliban Is Using the Doha Accord to Protect Al-Qaeda
That's one of many problems with ‘over the horizon’ counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan
Will Sistani be the Last Legend? The Challenge of Succession and the Future of the Marj’aiyyah Summer 2021 Issue
Since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Sistani in Najaf has become a focal point not only for Shi’a in Iraq, but for the entire region. Sistani is now 91 years old and the question of succession is a central one — one that concerns not only Shi’a Muslims, but the wider Middle East as well. This paper aims to shed light on the future of the religious authority in the Shi’a world based on the unavoidable change after Sistani.
Beyond AUKUS: 5 practical recommendation
Zack Cooper | AEIdeas
Since the Australia–United Kingdom–United States (AUKUS) trilateral security pact was announced, much attention has focused on French frustration with the deal, rather than on the next steps to build on the agreement. Zack Cooper provides five practical recommendations to capitalize on AUKUS's momentum: The US and Australia should move expeditiously to set up a trilateral forum with Indonesia, they should speed up the delivery of new capabilities, and the US should consider sharing B-21 bombers with Australia. The partners should codevelop ground-based missiles with Japan. Lastly, the Joe Biden administration should bring the US back to the trade table. Read More >>
10 years after ‘the pivot’: Still America’s Pacific century?
Zack Cooper and Adam P. Liff | October 2021
American Development of UAP Technology: A Fait Accompli?
By Franc Milburn, March 10, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The BESA Center’s recent detailed study on Unexplained Aerial Phenomena (UAP) described the post-quantum revolution in military affairs unfolding as a result of studying UAP “observables” and assessed the strategic implications in terms of potential threats emanating from UAP or adversaries. This paper delves further into “beyond next generation” technologies. It is based on recent comments by Luis Elizondo, former director of the Pentagon´s Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program, as well as analyses by scientists and former DoD insiders.
The questions to be addressed are: What are the capabilities of these technologies, what decisive advantages would they provide, and how likely are they to be developed and deployed?
Continue to full article ->
Dusty Drawers or Decisive Wars: Israel's New Victory Doctrine by Gregg Roman
March 14, 2021
Hits & Misses In Biden’s Interim National Security Guidance
“Seemingly gone is the naivety of the Obama era” about Russia and China, writes the Heritage Foundation’s Tom Spoehr in this op-ed. But the retired three-star general still sees some worrying woolly-mindedness.
Crisis, Resilience, and American Conservatism
By Peter Berkowitz via RealClearPolitics
Peter Berkowitz provides an analysis of the appeal of the American conservative movement since the end of the Second World War. He writes that its values of conserving individual freedom, limited government, and traditional morality are ones that large portions of ordinary voters have historically embraced. He argues that while conservatives need to meet the demands of the current moment, including the genuine concerns of working-class Americans hit hard by globalization, the movement should seek primarily to preserve the constitutional order, which is grounded in the principles of unalienable rights and limited government, and requires a citizenry that is educated in the rights and responsibilities of freedom.
The Iranian Nuclear Deal Needs to Be Fixed and Rewritten, Not Just Reviewed
By Russell Berman via The Hill
Policy Briefs: Moderate Islam
Featuring Fouad Ajami via PolicyEd
Although some say that there is no moderate form of Islam, Fouad Ajami believed in the potential to wrest Islam away from extremism. While radical Islamists have tried to hijack the faith, others, including Saudi jurists, are beginning to understand that the drift toward radicalism is a menace to Muslims around the world.
AFTER THE ARAB SPRING
Hero of the Month: M. Zuhdi Jasser by Grégoire Canlorbe
Is the U.S. Arming an Adversary, China, Intent on Overpowering Us? by Peter Schweizer
U.S. Policy Toward Asia
mentioning Michael R. Auslin via Foreign Policy Research Institute
How has U.S. Policy toward Asia come together one month into the Biden Administration? Will President Biden have success rebuilding relationships with the U.S.’s Asian partners, both economically and diplomatically? How will he respond to the recent coup in Myanmar? Join FPRI’s Jaques deLisle and Michael Auslin as they break down U.S. economic ties in Asia, recent events unfolding in the region, and the Biden administration’s attempts to rebuild relations across the Asia-Pacific.
Chinese Technology Platforms Operating In The United States
by Gary P. Corn, Jennifer Daskal, Jack Goldsmith, John C. "Chris" Inglis, Paul Rosenzweig, Samm Sacks, Bruce Schneier, Alex Stamos, Vincent Stewart via Hoover Institution Press
The Trump administration took various steps to effectively ban TikTok, WeChat, and other Chinese-owned apps from operating in the United States, at least in their current forms. The primary justification for doing so was national security. Yet the presence of these apps and related internet platforms presents a range of risks not traditionally associated with national security, including data privacy, freedom of speech, and economic competitiveness, and potential responses raise multiple considerations. This report offers a framework for both assessing and responding to the challenges of Chinese-owned platforms operating in the United States.
The World Goes On While America Sleeps
by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness
While we are busy devouring each other, China is smiling that once-feared American running-dog capitalists have become laughable Keystone Cops.
Why Are Al Qaeda Leaders In Iran?
by Cole Bunzel via Foreign Affairs
What a Prisoner Exchange Reveals About an Unlikely Relationship
Xi Jinping’s Rise Is No Historical Accident
How 'The Longer Telegram' misunderstands the Chinese Communist Party's quest for power
How to Bargain with the Taliban with Barnett Rubin
Defense Strategy and the Empire State of Mind: How Preparing for the Best Can Leave Washington Vulnerable to the Rest by Evan Montgomery
Russia: Putin Shoots Himself in the Foot
by Judith Bergman
Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi's Landmark Speech
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, February 2, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: IDF Chief of General Staff Aviv Kochavi’s January 26 speech conveyed important messages to multiple audiences. The most notable was that the IDF is preparing for action against Iran’s nuclear program even if it has to do it on its own.
Continue to full article ->
Patricia Karam writes: Although Lebanon is unlikely a high priority for the Biden administration, only the US has the gravitas and resources to produce a plan that could help save Lebanon. And the Lebanese should solicit America for help based on shared democratic values. The continuing civil society engagement that spurred the revolution is pushing for a necessary overhaul to the entire political system. Without a reinvention of Lebanon—a new vision and strategy that allows for the emergence of a political alternative to the existing corrupt political class—the entire nation risks becoming a failed state. – The Hill
Renanah M. Joyce and Brian Blankenshipt write: To square its strategic needs with operational and political realities, the United States should adopt a new, hybrid approach to basing that combines elements of the Cold War model — large, concentrated bases in key allies — and the Global War on Terror model — small dispersed bases scattered across informal partners. The Biden administration should tailor its security cooperation and economic strategy to attract partners, balance its need for more options against resource constraints, and revisit global posture plans to achieve this approach. – War on the Rocks