CounterStrikeMedia - Geography, Strategy, Great Power Competition

HOOVER'S STRATEGIKA: DEFENSE OF EUROPE

2/13/2019

Russia Reset Redux Not the Answer to Increased Chinese-Russian Cooperation

European Defense
By Angelo M. Codevilla
Europe was never a full partner in its own defense. The very question—Will Europe ever fully partner with the U.S., or will the European Union and NATO continue to downplay the necessity of military readiness?—is no longer meaningful as posed, because the political energies of Europe’s elites are absorbed as they try to fend off attacks on their legitimacy by broad sectors of their population.

NATO Renewed (Coming Soon To A Theater Of War Near You)
By Ralph Peters
Clio, the muse of history, has a fabulous sense of irony: As the human pageant unfolds, she delights in confounding our intentions and expectations. Thus, two public enemies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (whose acronym, NATO, sounds like another Greek deity) promise to be the unwitting saviors of the alliance, rescuing it from complacency, lethargy, and diminishing relevance.

Urging More From Our NATO Allies
By Robert G. Kaufman
The United States should never expect to achieve full burden-sharing with the European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Even in the most balanced alliances, the most powerful member will pay some premium for ensuring its credibility and effectiveness. The United States can strive plausibly to minimize but not eliminate the massive degree of free riding and strategic incoherence that has become politically untenable and strategically unwise.

RELATED COMMENTARY
The European Alliance That Never Was
By Angelo M. Codevilla

Europe Is Alert to the Dangers It Faces
By Kori Schake

Even Amidst Change, Europe Still Relies on the U.S. for Defense
By Barry Strauss

Europe Lacks the Will to Defend Itself
By Bing West
Read the full issue here.

YALE'S GRAND STRATEGY DIRECTOR CHARLES HILL SPEAKS BIOGRAPHICALLY & ADDRESSES WORLD ORDER

2/13/2019

Ep. 211: Charlie's Wars With Charles Hill
with Charles Hill via Q & A, Hosted by Jay NordlingerHoover Institution fellow Charles Hill talks about his upbringing in New Jersey, his life in the arena, his career in the academy, and the fate of the world.

COLIN GRAY'S LATEST: THE US & GLOBAL ORDER

2/12/2019

The United States and World Order
By Colin S. Gray, National Institute for Public Policy: “With very few exceptions the United States plays a dominant leadership role just about everywhere. This condition warrants the description hegemonic (from the Greek) so considerable is the country’s lead internationally in most of the true foundations of power. With few exceptions, this American dominance has been a source of enormous net benefit to the world at large. In common with many other powers, even the United States has a few notable weaknesses, some of them, when regarded ironically, being largely a consequence of its relative greatness.”

The future of arms control is global
(War On The Rocks) In the United States, discussion of Indo-Pacific nuclear weapons issues often centers on how existing and developing nuclear weapon capabilities in the region affect U.S. strategic calculations.

Confusion in the Pivot: The Muddled Shift from Peripheral War to Great Power Competition by Benjamin Denison

WILL AUSTRALIA GO TO CHINA? HOW CHINESE AMBITIONS TO DESTROY "THE QUAD" ARE WORKING; NET ASSESSMENT & ARMS CONTROL FOR THE INDO-PACIFIC

2/10/2019

Confronting the Flaws in America's Indo-Pacific Strategy by Jean-Loup Samaan

Building The Air Force We Need To Meet Chinese And Russian Threats
(Forbes) For the first time in a generation, America’s global interests are at risk.

"Australia’s Great Strategic Transition

Australia is about to embark upon only its second strategic “course correction” since Federation in 1901. But it has yet to determine a destination, or to plot a course.

Analysis. By the Canberra staff of GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs. Few question the place of Australia in the strategic firmament. It is an economically and militarily strong part of “the West”. And yet it is now, for only the second time in its independent history, beginning to move onto a new strategic path.

It is a path yet to be plotted to a destination yet to be envisioned. It is only the second time in the country’s independent history — in the 116 years since Federation in 1901 — that it has so clearly begun such a move.

What are the headline aspects?

• Australia’s relationship with the US has already changed, and will change further. It is — although the US may not yet recognize it — evolving into a more balanced relationship;

• Australia will be forced to seek a far more nuanced balance among a variety of allies, neighbors, and trading partners;

• Australia will be forced to seek more balanced trading and economic models, given the evolution away from zero-architecture globalism;

• Australia will have to move rapidly away from its belief that it can be sustained primarily by a service economy;

• Australia will need to define its identity and grand strategic objectives or else face growing internal polarization and focused Indo-Pacific challenges.

Significantly, the strategic evolution of Australia is not overtly linked to changes which were announced in July 2017 in Canberra, creating some new framework elements for Australia’s national security and intelligence communities. It is a sea-change, nonetheless, even though it has yet to be formally recognized by the Government, the Defence community, or the public.

Rather, the changes being evidenced in the national security system are unconsciously reflective of (and reflexive to) the transforming context, not the other way around.

The first shift, from strategic dependence on and alliance with the United Kingdom, to dependence on and alliance with the United States, reached a tipping point in about 1962. The signs of that shift began to be evident in World War II, as Britain’s position East of Suez began to crumble (particularly with the lost of Singapore by February 15, 1942). By May 8, 1942, with the US-Australian forces fighting the Battle of the Coral Sea, the course had become, perhaps, inevitable.

The Future of Arms Control is Global: Reconsidering Nuclear Issues in the Indo-Pacific by Andy Weber and Christine Parthemore

Say It With Statues: Brick-and-Mortar Revisionism in Orban's Hungary by Vivian S. Walker

New Net Assessment: To Intervene or Not to Intervene? That is the Question by Melanie Marlowe, Bryan McGrath, and Christopher Preble

The Fundamentals of the Quad
By Walter Lohman, The Strategist (ASPI): “The most important thing that unites the Quad countries, however, is an awareness that managing the rise of China is the defining challenge of our era.

GREGORY COPLEY, EDITOR DEFENSE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS ON TRUMP'S ASIAN STRATEGY

2/7/2019

CHINA'S OFFICIAL NUCLEAR POLICY MAY CHANGE

2/7/2019

Is China about to abandon its ‘no first use’ nuclear weapons policy?
(South China Morning Post) China might come under pressure to reconsider its long-standing “no first use” nuclear policy as it engages in a maritime arms race with the United States, analysts have warned.

THE QUAD SUPPORTS US BASED RULES FOR INTERNATIONAL ORDER, THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE RUSSIAN PULLOUT FROM AFGHANISTAN

2/7/2019

Quad Supports U.S. Goal to Preserve Rules-Based Order
By Derek Grossman, The Strategist (ASPI): “Washington’s key objective when contending with Beijing in the Indo-Pacific is to preserve the liberal international order that has been in place since the end of World War II."

30-Year Anniversary of Soviet Withdrawal From Afghanistan
By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: “The withdrawal of the Soviet 40th Army from Afghanistan from 1988 to 1989 was a militarily successful operation save one mistake."

Inflated Counts of Civilian Casualties Collateral of Modern War
By Rodger Shanahan, the interpreter: “Such is the nature of modern conflict in built-up urban areas. When there is a complex, multi-division assault on a large urban area against an entrenched enemy, with multiple methods of fire and close air support, making a determination afterwards about what ordnance collapsed what building is nigh on impossible."

THE FUTURE OF ASIAN INTERNATIONAL ORDER, INDIA'S MODERNIZATION BUDGET FAILS & THE VITALITY OF PROTECTING GEOGRAPHIC CHOKEPOINTS AGAINST US ADVERSARIES

2/6/2019

Protecting Chokepoints Remains a Key Strategic Challenge
By Austin Bay, StrategyPage: “Chokepoints matter, economically and militarily. Most of the world's trade passes through nine maritime chokepoints: Hormuz, Malacca Straits, Mandeb, Suez, Gibraltar, Cape Horn, Cape of Good Hope, Panama Canal and the Turkish Straits. The Danish Straits also matter -- especially to Russia.”

Competition with China and the Future of the Asian International Order by David M. Edelstein

India’s new defense budget falls way short for modernization plans
(Defense News) India’s defense budget for 2019 included a marginal 6.87 percent bump to $49.68 billion, which is unlikely to meet modernization demands or ‘Make in India’ manufacturing increases.

India Is Going Big on New Fighters; Lockheed, Boeing Pledge Indian Plants
Boeing, Lockheed, Dassault Aviation of France, the European Eurofighter consortium, Sweden’s Saab, and United Aircraft Corporation of Russia are all jockeying for position for an Indian fighter contract worth $15 billion for 110 planes, and an $8 billion navy program of around 60 aircraft.

SELF DECEPTION & THE CONSPIRACY OF OPTIMISM: NEMESIS OF CREATIVITY AND EFFECTIVENESS

2/3/2019

Self-Deception and the 'Conspiracy of Optimism' by Charles Vandepeer

SHOOTING DOWN HYPER-SONIC MISSILES, A LOOK AT IRAN'S NEW CRUISE MISSILE & THE NAVY'S D5 MISSILE

2/3/2019

The Best Defense Ever? Busting Myths About the Trump Administration’s Missile Defense Review by Joan Johnson-Freese and David Burbach

Pentagon Studies Post-INF Weapons, Shooting Down Hypersonics
The Pentagon has almost completed a study of how to shoot down hypersonic missiles. It’s also developing new offensive weapons — conventional, not nuclear — whose deployment will become legal with the end of the INF Treaty.

Trump Scraps Cold War Nuclear Treaty, US Moving To Build New Missiles

Iran’s “New” Land-Attack Cruise Missile In Context
An overemphasis by the West on seeking to check Tehran’s ballistic missile program has led to inattention to Iran’s cruise missile capabilities and intentions. Over the weekend, Iran unveiled and test-launched a "new" land-attack cruise missile, dubbed the Hoveizah, days in advance of the Islamic Republic's 40th anniversary.

5 Reasons the Navy's D5 Missile Is the Most Important Weapon in the U.S. Arsenal
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “Last week, the Navy’s Strategic Systems Programs office awarded Lockheed Martin a $560 million modification to a pre-existing contract for production and support of the Trident II D5 missile. Almost nobody outside the Navy and Lockheed’s missiles and space unit noticed. Dozens of such agreements have been completed over the years."

Iran’s “New” Land-Attack Cruise Missile In Context

STEPHEN BRYEN Canceling INF Treaty makes sense
The 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear (INF) Treaty, agreed by US president Ronald Reagan and Soviet general secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, has been suspended by both the United States and Russia. Vladimir Putin says he will not negotiate the matter, and the treaty’s six-month notice clause

SPAIN & THE BIRTH OF HYBRID WAR 1808

1/30/2019

Spain 1808: The Birth of Guerrilla Warfare
By Paolo Palumbo, NewsRep: "A careful analysis emerges as to how the British and the French armies–given their colonial experiences–are the most accustomed to dealing with this type of emergency. In fact, many tend to forget what the European continent was like after the French Revolution, when the republican armies wore the liberators’ uniforms."

GREGORY COPLEY COVERS POWER POLITICS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY; INFANTRY CLOSE COMBAT RANGE STILL REIGNS WHILE AIR FORCE REFORMS ITSELF AROUND A CONCEPT OF 'BALANCE' NOT BOMBERS

1/28/2019

More Missile Defense Ships, New Ground Deployments
By Paul McLeary, Tuesday, January 29, 2019 4:19 PM
Despite the Navy’s misgivings over having dozens of its ships sailing in boxes hunting for missiles, plans remain in place for more Aegis-capable hulls, as well as new radars, and mobile missile defense batteries.

A look inside the work, future of Jim Mattis' task force focused on infantry, close combat
(Military Times) Nearly a year after former defense secretary Jim Mattis inked a memo to create the first task force focused solely on making close combat formations more lethal, the group has coordinated efforts to add more than $3 billion toward that goal and now has another year to find a way to institutionalize its mission.

Balanced Airpower, Not Bombers: How the Air Force Found Its Way
By Heather Venable, War on the Rocks: “Has the U.S. Air Force lost its way? Has it lost sight of its core business and role? That’s what naval historian Jerry Hendrix provocatively claims in an already widely discussed article the National Review"

BEST STRATEGY BOOKS 2018

1/25/2019

BEST BOOKS 2018

STRATEGY VS. OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS

THE STRATEGIC MISSILE DEFENSE REVIEW IS ON, WHY THE QUAD WILL NEVER BE AN ASIAN NATO, CHINA'S NEW NUCLEAR SUBMARINES & A NEW RUSSIAN IRON CURTAIN OF MISSILE DEFENSES

1/24/2019

Expect a Missile Race After the INF Demise
// Patrick Tucker
If the Trump administration withdraws, experts see rapid development of new missiles

STRATCOM Warns U.S. Can't Defend Against Hypersonic Missile Threat
By Steve Liewer, Omaha World-Herald: “Current intercontinental ballistic missiles can fly just as fast as hypersonics, but this new class of weapons can fly in controlled patterns just above the Earth’s atmosphere and be shifted in midair.”

MDF

HOW TO UNDERSTAND MDF

Russia, China and the U.S. Missile Defense Review:
The Shape of Strategic Competition
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): “Like its 2010 predecessor, the 2019 MDR splits its consideration of the missile-defence mission into two parts: defence of the U.S. homeland from ICBM-level threats on the one hand, and defence of deployed U.S. forces, allies and partners from regional missile threats on the other.”

Pondering China's Future Nuclear Submarine Production
By Rick Joe, The Diplomat: “ ... A rumored new nuclear submarine production facility under Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Company (BSHIC) at Huludao may also be edging closer to completion. Therefore it's a good occasion to reflect on what Chinese nuclear submarine production may look like in the future.

The New Iron Curtain: Russian Missile Defenses
By Thomas Grove, Wall Street Journal: “North from Syria, along the borders of Eastern Europe and rounding the Arctic Circle to the east, Russia has built a ring of air defenses that threaten the reach of the U.S. military, forcing Washington to rethink its place as the world's undisputed air power."

Why the Quad Won’t Ever Be an Asian NATO
By Andrew O'Neil & Lucy West, The Strategist (ASPI): “The most recent meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Singapore last November suggests that the U.S., India, Japan and Australia regard the initiative as a geostrategic multiplier in the Indo-Pacific."

Trump Endorses Ambitious Goals for Missile Defense
By Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, Hudson Institute: “The MDR did not state, as President Trump did, that the goal of the United States is to work toward a capability that, “regardless of the missile type or the geographic origins of the attack,” ensures “that enemy missiles find no sanctuary on Earth or in the skies above.””

The Navy Has Had Enough of Missile Defense; And Sees Its Chance

RECRUITING SNOWFLAKES & ITS IMPACT ON WARTIME INSTITUTIONS

1/23/2019

THE WAVELL ROOM

THINKING THROUGH A NUCLEAR FACE-OFF WITH MOTHER RUSSIA & A BRIEF LOOK AT THE NEW RULES FOR WAR

1/22/2019

The New Rules of War
By Bob Underwood, Strategy Bridge: “Victory. That is why we are all here. But, does anyone know what victory in war looks like over the next several decades, or how to achieve it? There is no shortage of authors in the ever-growing literature on strategy and national defense telling us both what victory in war will look like and how to get there. Count me a skeptic.”

CARNAGIE ENDOWMENT

ALLIED WAR MASTER STRATEGIES

1/22/2019

HOW TO DEFEAT HYBRID WAR & WHY PHILIPPINES POSES CHALLENGE FOR THE US VIA CHINA

1/22/2019

How to Defeat Hybrid Warfare Before It Starts
// Luke Coffey
A well-governed society is a resilient society.

Gregory B. Poling and Eric Sayers write: A storm is brewing in America’s oldest security alliance in the Indo-Pacific and the administration needs to act quickly to head it off. On December 20, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Delfin Lorenzana called for a review of the provisions of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) between Washington and Manila.[…] The primary reason for this review is what Lorenzana called America’s “ambivalence” about whether the treaty applies in the South China Sea, where Philippine troops and facilities are under threat from an increasingly assertive China. – War on the Rocks

CENTER FOR POLITICAL & MILITARY POWER: FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE DEMOCRACIES LAUNCHES NEW CENTER

1/22/2019

FDD

WHAT THE HELL IS GRAND STRATEGY?

1/18/2019

#Reviewing Grand Strategy
By James Griffin, Strategy Bridge: “Until now, scholars have largely demurred from trying to pin down the theoretical essence of what grand strategy actually is."

FORBES: THE COLLAPSE OF STRATEGY

The War Cycle: A Model for Managing War
By Albert Palazzo, Strategy Bridge: “Despite the use of these conceptual models by the U.S. military and others, by doctrine writers and military theorists, as well as their presence in military curriculums, both tools have features that undercut their usefulness. In fact, a strong case can be made that the utility they offer to the military and their political masters can be more negative than positive.”

Leading in Uncertainty: A Division Officer’s Perspective
By John D. Miller, Proceedings Magazine: “Disruptions in the status quo generate a diverse range of human reactions and emotions. Sailors look to their chain of command to make sense of an uncertain future. To successfully meet this challenge and retain the warfighting readiness of the force, leaders must prepare for these interactions to bring both assets and operators to the future fight."

THE PIVOT TO ASIA IS FALTERING

1/17/2019

China’s Plan to Break Off U.S. Allies
By Tao Peng, The Diplomat: "There’s a reason Beijing is pressuring Canada – not the U.S. – over Meng Wanzhou’s arrest. Australia and New Zealand could be next."

Electronic Warfare – The Forgotten Discipline
By Malte von Spreckelsen, Joint Air Power Competence Centre: “Why is the Refocus on this Traditional Warfare Area Key for Modern Conflict?”

Trump Pivots to Asia, but His Trade Policy Needs a Boost
By Michael Auslin, National Review: “As usual with Trump, he has begun by blowing up past practice, specifically in no longer pretending China is a fair trading partner, in finally responding to cyber espionage, and in at least attempting to put more military pressure on Beijing by increasing naval freedom of navigation operations and aerial overflights near new Chinese military bases in the South China Sea. All in all, Trump’s approach is the first since the normalization of relations in 1979 to rattle the Chinese and put them on the back foot."

In recent years, top defense officials and internal Pentagon reports alike have cautioned about the rise of China as a military power, in large part due to its investments in high-end technologies like hypersonics and its development of indigenous capabilities like stealth fighters and aircraft carriers. – Defense News

A new report from the Defense Intelligence Agency provides insights into how the Chinese military might deploy cyber capabilities in a future conflict. – Defense News

The new report, released by the Defense Intelligence Agency, provides an assessment of the Chinese military and states that China views controlling the “information domain” as a prerequisite for victory in modern war. This tactic is essential for countering outside intervention in a conflict. – Defense News

Arthur Herman writes: China and the West are currently locked in a race to dominate the future of global telecommunications through so-called fifth generation or 5G technologies, which will not only accelerate everyone’s access to the Internet and data and networks, but also interconnect us all as never before. – Hudson Institute

Heritage’s Thomas Spoehr: New Missile Defense Review is a well-considered response to a changing global threat landscape

Thomas Karako writes: The Trump administration has today released its long-awaited Missile Defense Review (MDR). Initiated pursuant to both congressional and presidential direction, the report represents an attempt to adapt U.S. missile defense policy, posture, and programs to the strategic environment of great power competition. The United States and its allies face a more complex and challenging aerial threat environment than ever before. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

RESOLVING THE NAGA CONFLICT

1/17/2019

Nagaland’s Time: A States-Led Effort to Resolve the Naga Conflict by Aman Thakker and Kartikeya Singh

WHY THE EXPEDITIONARY MINDSET RULES

1/16/2019

Expeditionary Forces Are America's Military Crown Jewel
By Terry McKnight, Proceedings Magazine: “U.S. Navy and Marine Corps forces are in higher demand than ever in the joint warfare fighting environment. Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development & Acquisition James F. Geurts has clearly stated: “Expeditionary Warfare will be key to success in future battles, but in order to ensure overmatch, the U.S. military must increase its ability to quickly adapt to new threats.””

Logistics Requires Reduced Demand, More Research
From AUSA: "“Logistics demand must be reduced, and research, development, technology and engineering funding must be increased,” the report says. “To enable resiliency and complicate an adversary’s targeting, it is imperative that logistics concepts of operations be revised to align with anticipated future joint operating concepts.”"

With the resurgence of Russia and China in the maritime environment and a renewed era of what Naval Surface Forces commander Vice Adm. Richard Brown calls “Great Power competition,” the Navy must embrace “mission command,” the idea that subordinate commanders have freedom to make decisions, act and adapt as long as their actions support the commander’s intent. – Military.com

After years fighting terrorism, the SEALs turn their eyes toward fighting big wars
(Defense News) After spending the better part of the past two decades supporting small wars in the desert, the Navy is starting to bring the SEALs back into the fold as it faces threats from major powers such as China and Russia.

CHINA SEEKS A BOMBER TO COMPETE WITH USA

1/16/2019

U.S., CHINA:
Pentagon: China Seeking Nuclear Bomber to Compete With U.S.
By Anthony Capaccio, Bloomberg: “China is likely developing a long-range bomber capable of delivering nuclear weapons and a space-based early warning system it could use to more quickly respond to an attack, according to a new report from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.”

Missile Defense Review Calls for Protecting US From Cruise Missiles
// Marcus Weisgerber
The long-awaited report calls for technology development, but stops short of calling for the deployment of hypersonic interceptors and space-based lasers.

Missile Defense Review a Multi-Billion IOU to White House

Talk To Us First, THEN Congress: Navy Acquisition Officials
Marines Want Missiles To Sink Ships From Shores, And They Want Them Fast

"THE SWISS ARMY KNIFE" OF US MISSILES

1/16/2019

One Missile, Many Missions: Raytheon’s Standard Missile-6

CENTER FOR POLITICAL & MILITARY POWER

SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA ANYMORE

SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA
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THE QURAN & MORAL STRATEGY FOR THE LONG WAR

WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS

WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS
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THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE PELOPONNESIAN WAR

WHAT HAPPENED DURING PELOPONNESIAN WAR
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THUCYDIDES TRAP IS GREAT POWER COMPETITION

THUCYDIDES TRAP = GREAT POWER COMPETITION
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CENTER STRATEGIC, BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS: U.S. GRAND STRATEGY

DAVID P. GOLDMAN COLUMN ASIA TIMES

HOW BEST TO UNDERSTAND U.S. - CHINA RELATIONS

STRATEGY BRIDGE

Winning World War IV David P. Goldman.pdf
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THE NEW ASIAN OBSERVER

Tweets by WilliamHolland

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