"Now, PRC Pres. Xi Jinping was being forced by a range of circumstances — a declining economy, the socio-economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic, and a range of natu-ral and demographic disasters and trends — to take precipitate military action before the final window on the path toward global dominance closed for the PRC. "

Five reasons it’s smart to ban Chinese apps
Cleo Paskal — Washington Examiner
Both President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are openly talking about emulating India’s ban on some Chinese mobile phone apps. While this may seem trivial, it is actually a surprisingly effective way to hit back at, and protect from, Chinese economic and strategic aggression. India banned 59 Chinese apps after repeated Chinese aggression, including a border clash that left 20 Indian soldiers dead. What India realized was that apps play an important role in China’s espionage and development of weaponized advanced artificial intelligence technology. Read More

​

The World’s Most Dangerous Alliance
Thomas Joscelyn — The Dispatch
On July 8, Xi Jinping spoke with his comrade, Vladimir Putin, by phone. Putin has been one of Xi’s staunchest allies throughout the coronavirus pandemic. And Xi wanted to thank him. The Chinese leader “commended the mutual support and assistance the two countries gave each other at the most trying time of the COVID-19 challenge, an endeavor which added strategic substance to China-Russia relations in the new era,” according to a readout of the call prepared by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Read More

Putin's military has an aging problem. "Moscow has increased its spending on national defense to the highest level since Soviet times," Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation wrote

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-j20-stealth-fighter-jet-into-mass-production-after-upgrade-2020-7

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/34404/big-airfield-expansion-on-wake-island-seen-by-satellite-as-u-s-preps-for-pacific-fight

Proliferant States Continue to Rely on China for Nuclear-Related Equipment
Andrea Stricker | Research Fellow

Asia's New Geopolitics: A Conversation With Michael R. Auslin And Robert D. Kaplan
interview with Michael R. Auslin via Foreign Policy Research Institute
Hoover Institution fellow Michael Auslin discusses his new book, Asia’s New Geopolitics: Essays on Reshaping the Indo-Pacific, which examines key issues transforming the Indo-Pacific and the broader world, including the history of American strategy in Asia, from the eighteenth century through today.

AMAZON

Xi Jinping's Internal Great Wall
quoting Elizabeth Economy via National Interest
Like the Great Wall of generations past, Xi’s Internal Great Wall will continue to keep China behind the rest of the world because a nation that suppresses its own people is not a nation the world can trust to do business fairly.

Winter Is Coming
By James A. Winnefeld Jr., Proceedings: "Extended geopolitical cycles usually end in war. A major test of U.S. power, which may already be under way, could signal the end of the current cycle. Winter is coming, and there is much to do to prepare."

Convoys As Echoes of the Past Part II:
Revisiting the Chessboard Model
By Harrison Schramm, RealClearDefense: “Thinking about objects moving in continuous ‘free space’ is hard; a key innovation of the Chessboard model is to impose a grid structure on the North Atlantic.”

Rushing to Defeat: The Strategic Flaw in Contemporary U.S. Army Thinking
By Christopher Parker, Strategy Bridge: "The United States Army has a problem. As it extricates itself from protracted counterinsurgency and stability operations in Afghanistan and reorients towards large-scale combat operations, the Army has realized its adversaries, namely China and Russia, have adopted a security posture bent on undermining its preferred way of war."

Who Is to Blame for the U.S. Military’s Technology Problem?
By Justin Lynch, Modern War Institute: "If monarchy and oligarchy are rule by the few, and aristocracy and democracy are rule by the best and the many, then bureaucracy, Hannah Arendt tells us, is rule by Nobody."

Strengthening Maritime Capability for a Stronger and More Resilient America
By Mike Stevens, RealClearDefense: “Now is the time to enhance and improve America’s maritime industrial base to meet the challenges today ..."
 
China’s Rise as a Global Power Reaches Its Riskiest Point Yet
By Rodger Baker, Stratfor Worldview: "China has reached a risky point in its international development where its economic and strategic power is perceived as great enough to require a reply, but are not yet strong enough to withstand a concerted counter-challenge."

Huawei is under a lot of pressure. Fresh US sanctions have cut off the Chinese tech company’s access to vital American technology to a greater extent than ever before. Countries and mobile network operators around the world are now questioning whether Huawei will be able to deliver on its 5G promises. And rising anti-China sentiment in India and elsewhere is not helping matters. – CNN
​
The Chinese government took steps to boost political policing as a slew of international spats risk sowing domestic unrest, potentially undermining support for the Communist Party. – Bloomberg

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/06/protests-urban-chaos-americans-will-seek-to-avoid-big-cities/

The Trump administration is focusing its efforts on engaging in trilateral arms control agreements with Russia and China. This week, the United States and Russia began negotiations over extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, though China has no intentions of joining. However, the administration's effort to bring China into the negotiations distracts from the dynamic of what makes for successful arms control: modernization and deployment of nuclear systems that allow negotiation from a position of strength. AEI’s John Maurer argues that "to maximize our chances of success in arms control negotiations with Russia and China, the United States must embrace a long-term strategy of nuclear modernization, including new ballistic missiles, missile submarines, and nuclear-capable bombers. Only a robust and modernized American nuclear deterrent will provide the leverage necessary to bring adversaries to the table for serious negotiations." ​

A growing chorus of voices is advising Congress to reduce spending on nuclear modernization in the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2021. This advice is misguided, argues John Maurer in a RealClear Defense op-ed. To build a new arms control framework, the United States must negotiate from a position of strength. Slowing nuclear modernization would end any hope for arms control, even as the United States pursues new negotiations aimed at curbing competition among the United States, Russia, and China. Read here.

Peter Suciu writes: For China to gain naval dominance would require that it could launch and maintain more than the 11 aircraft carriers the United States Navy now operates, but would also need to keep pace with the carriers in service with the Royal Navy, France and Australia. As long as NATO exists it isn’t just the 11 U.S. carriers and potentially nine LHAs in the U.S. fleet, but all of those other carriers. – The National Interest

“Beyond the Beltway” — What’s the Civil-Military Crisis? by Paula Thornhill

Countering China Is for the BIRDs

Russia’s New Strategy for Nuclear War
By Paul Dibb, The Strategist (ASPI): "The relatively short, six-page document sets out a series of blunt messages designed to impress on its potential enemies just where Russia stands. While it considers nuclear weapons ‘exclusively as a means of deterrence’ and characterises their use as ‘an extreme and compelled measure’, this official declaration sets out in some detail the conditions that could trigger nuclear conflict."

Religious and Cultural Obstacles to China's BRI in the Middle East
By Dr. Mordechai Chaziza, June 12, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The successful implementation of China’s BRI strategy will largely depend on its ability to overcome the Middle East’s weighty political, economic, religious, cultural, and security problems.
Continue to full article ->

The United States, China and ‘The Geography of the Peace’
By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: ““The United States must recognize once again, and permanently, that the power constellation in Europe and Asia is of everlasting concern to her, both in time of war and in time of peace.” So wrote Nicholas J. Spykman in The Geography of the Peace, which was published in 1944, when the Second World War was still raging in Europe and Asia, and on the oceans of the world."

American Exceptionalism in the Age of Trump
By Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): "With World War II, President Franklin Roosevelt, his successor, Harry Truman, and others drew the lesson that the U.S. could not afford to turn inward again. They realised that America’s very size had become a second source of exceptionalism."

East Asia decouples from the United States: Trade war, COVID-19, and East Asia's new trade blocs

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Is The Wall Street Journal Now Getting Woke on China Trade?

Defending America’s defenders
​Beginning to stand up to a hostile international organizatio

The Aircraft Carrier We Need
By Jerry Hendrix, National Review: "A strategic design update is due."

Distributable Platforms and Determined Marines:
The Necessity of Operational Art in a 21st Century Marine Corps
By Matthew Schultz, Michael Manning, Jeremy Smith, Brian Meade, Matthew Newman & Paul Kozick, Strategy Bridge: "In the coming era of distributable platforms, stand-in forces, and globally-integrated joint combined arms operations, the time has come for the Corps to join the rest of the U.S. military services in embracing the concept of operational art in its foundational, service-level doctrine."

Options for the U.S. to Wage Conflict in the Cognitive Domain
By Todd Schmidt, DefenseTech: "Current operational environments witness adversaries increasingly avoiding conventional conflict and achieving their objectives through other means of influence. The consequence is a future of persistent, unending great power competition that resides in a gray zone between war and peace."

Bolton still hasn’t grasped that the regime fed him enough disinformation to sustain an empty strategy. The former national security adviser echoes Trump’s gripe that the Obama administration left many messes behind: “The growing Russian, Chinese, Iranian and Cuban influence across the hemisphere had not been a priority” for eight years. Read more here.

Latin America’s criminal groups have leveraged the pandemic to win local support by delivering humanitarian assistance in underserved communities. Such levels of “criminal charity” could complicate the future efforts of Latin America’s weakest states to dismantle and defeat organized crime groups, notes Ryan Berg in an article for the SAIS Review of International Affairs. The pandemic has opened possibilities for criminal groups in Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil to curry favor and employ violence to coerce populations. So far, criminal groups are far outpacing Latin American states in the crucial competition for millions of hearts and minds. Continue here.

IRAN:
German Intel Report Lays Bare Iran’s Attempts to Obtain Nuclear Proliferation Technology
By Benjamin Weinthal, FOX News: “In a section titled “Proliferation,” the 181-page Baden-Württemberg state intelligence agency document reviewed by Fox News states that Iran, Pakistan, North Korea and Syria are “still pursuing” such efforts."

For Peace, America Must Negotiate From Strength
By John D. Maurer, RealClearDefense: “In an era of global pandemic, economic downturn, and social unrest, a growing chorus of voices is advising Congress to reduce spending on nuclear modernization in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021. This advice is misguided."

The surge of attacks by Islamic State militants in Iraq displays a quiet return of a group that six years ago threatened Baghdad. In an article for The Islamists, Katherine Zimmerman notes that the Islamic State’s threat to the West remains real. Stamping out the Islamic State and its ability to inspire terror attacks requires more than pressure on ISIS or individual branches, a lesson the US should have learned from its approach to fighting al Qaeda. Read here.

China: What We Must Do, What We Must Not Do
by Gordon G. Chang  

Staring Into the Abyss of US-China Decoupling
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, June 5, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel resides at the cusp of the widening US-Chinese divide, as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent visit to Israel attests. Pompeo’s visit was for the express purpose of reminding Jerusalem that its dealings with Beijing jeopardize its relationship with Washington.
Continue to full article ->

Trump’s New China strategy Must Focus on International Organizations
Richard Goldberg | Senior Advisor

The Marine Corps is starting to form and experiment with the littoral regiment at the heart of its modern-day island-hopping strategy, the head of Marine Corps combat development told USNI News. – USNI News ​

HOOVER STRATEGIKA:  CHINA 

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Great New Developments on the U.S.-China Decoupling Front  by Alan Tonelson

Faced with the erosion of civil-military relations, it is time to reexamine the personnel policy of "veterans' preference," argue Mackenzie Eaglen and Frances Burke for War on the Rocks. As an increasing number of recently retired military personnel fill the civil service roles that are designed to keep civilians involved in US national security structures, this disrupts the US national security ecosystem and the tenuous balance of civil-military relations. Protecting the role of civilians in the Department of Defense should be paramount for the Pentagon and lawmakers alike. 
​Learn more here.

Benjamin Jensen and Matthew Van Echo write: The idea was not to go to war with China, America’s third-largest trading partner. The idea was to explore coercion and setting conditions in a theater of operation in a manner that provided multiple credible and flexible deterrence and military response options to national decision-makers. As a result, students gained a better understanding of new concepts like the competition continuum and were able to evaluate them in relation to a larger body of literature on coercion, military power, and crisis management. – War on the Rocks

Oriana Skylar Mastro took to the Strength Through Peace blog to argue that the world’s focus is rightly on managing the COVID-19 pandemic and reducing the loss of life. But the challenges of addressing China’s rise have not dissipated — instead, they are increasing — and the United States should focus on potential contingencies in the South China Sea if it is to avoid them. 
Continue here.

Net Assessment: Big Trouble in a Little China Strategy? with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-and-chinas-missiles-are-become-bigger-threat-heres-how-improve-us-missile-defenses

China’s Ambiguous Missile Strategy Is Risky
By P.W. Singer & Ma Xiu, Popular Science: "The risk with this strategy is that such ambiguity substantially increases the danger of an accidental nuclear exchange due to mistaken assumptions."

Is China in Breach of Its Nuclear-Testing Commitments?
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): "In last month’s executive summary of the 2020 edition of the U.S. State Department’s annual report on global arms-control compliance, a ‘concern’ is raised about possible low-level Chinese nuclear testing at the Lop Nur test site in Xinjiang province."

Daniel Tobin writes: The ambitions articulated by Xi Jinping at the 19th Party Congress underscore that Washington and its allies face a global, strategic rivalry driven as much by ideology and values embodied in competing domestic governance systems as by perceptions of changing power dynamics. While this rivalry differs in many respects from the Cold War, one of the most important differences is that it is a competition to define the rules and norms that will govern an integrated, deeply connected world rather than a world divided into competing camps. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Caution: China’s Nuclear Strategy May Be ‘Nuclear Thoughtlessness’
By Paul Bracken, The Hill: “China’s nuclear strategy is more complex than most public discussions or academic studies suggest."

Deterrence in the Pacific: The Chinese Nuclear Dimension
By Robbin Laird, SLD.info: "“Rocking the boat” in Asia will look much different in a “heavy” nuclear world than it did when China was barely a nuclear weapon state.”"

China’s strategic interest in the Arctic goes beyond economics
(Defense News) In its Arctic policy published in 2018, China proclaimed itself as a “near-Arctic state,” a label that has since invited controversy.

Securing America From China’s Predatory Economic Tactics
Begins With Protecting Our Businesses
By Mark Green, RealClearDefense: “China’s actions to cover up their handling of the outbreak have shed new light on China’s hegemonic intentions."

Can a broke America fight a Cold War with China?
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
The coronavirus has united Americans against Beijing’s aggressions, but it will also devastate the Pentagon budget.

CHINA:
Chinese Navy Submarines Protected By Underground Tunnels
By H I Sutton, Forbes: "China is a maritime nation with over 9,000 miles of coastline, dotted with ports. Compared to most other countries, it has a large number of naval bases."

​Special Report: U.S. rearms to nullify China's missile supremacy
(Reuters) As Washington and Beijing trade barbs over the coronavirus pandemic, a longer-term struggle between the two Pacific powers is at a turning point, as the United States rolls out new weapons and strategy in a bid to close a wide missile gap with China.

Pandemic Sets the Stage for a Western-Asian Ideological Contest
By Emil Avdaliani, May 3, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As the shock from the coronavirus pandemic decreases over the coming months, both China and the West are likely to record successes in the economic and political realms. The crisis has set the stage for an ideological struggle between the West and China that will play a crucial role in determining the destiny of Eurasia throughout this decade and the next.
Continue to full article ->

Trump’s nuclear policy has failed
(Defense One) Recognizing that blunders and bad ideas have undermined stability and security is the first step toward recovery.

Is Xi Jinping weaker than we think?
Gary J. Schmitt and Minxin Pei | The American Interest

What if military recruiting could screen for wash-outs?
(Military Times) It takes tens of thousands of dollars to get a new service member through recruiting and initial training, and costs the services hundreds of millions a year when new troops are discharged from the military before the end of their first contracts.

Rep. Gallagher: The ‘bad day for The PLA Navy’
(Breaking Defense) The Navy’s decision to tap Wisconsin’s Fincantieri Marinette Marine to build the first 10 of a new class of guided missile frigates last month could be the first real step toward a faster, more numerous and more lethal fleet.

Chinese Navy expanding base in Africa, satellite images confirm
(War Is Boring) The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has stepped up its operations at a base in Africa, as evidenced by satellite imagery.

China ‘won’t win more respect’ if it expands nuclear arsenal following calls from national media, analyst says
(South China Morning Post) Calls for Beijing to expand its nuclear arsenal reflect its rocky relations with Washington, and any reckless moves could damage the nation’s credibility, according to an analyst.

Build a fleet, not a constituency
(Defense News) The U.S. Navy’s long-awaited award of a contract to design and build a new class of frigates has brought with it calls to dramatically expand the planned class of 20 ships to a fleet of 70 or more hulls.

Does a US presidential military experience gap really matter?
(The Diplomat) What are the strategic consequences of leadership that lacks direct military experience?

James Jay Carafano and Riley Walters write: Unless the Quad economies can focus on structural reforms focused on economic freedom as they strive to get their economies back to work, they can expect a struggle to get back to just average economic growth—and even that will not be enough to truly recover. Working together, however, they can better find the strength to do what’s necessary to get their economies moving again. – The Daily Signal

Michael O’Hanlon writes: If we do not listen to that message, the entire domestic basis for a strong United States and an engaged foreign policy leadership role could evaporate. Domestic policy has turned to foreign policy. Both the Pentagon and the candidates should take heed. As we emerge from the emergency response to coronavirus in the months to come, this more than any other is the debate we need to have as a country.- The Hill
​
Bryan Clark and Dan Patt write: The U.S. military needs new approaches to warfighting if it is going to deter aggression and counter gray-zone tactics from great power and regional competitors. Technology proliferation and post-pandemic budget and experimentation constraints will prevent staying ahead through superior equipment and tactics alone. DoD will need to start enabling what American military leaders have always said is their greatest resource: the creativity and adaptability of their warfighters. – Defense One

How to Decouple Key Supply Chains from China

Keep Expectations Modest for Iraq’s New Government by Douglas A. Ollivant

Pulling Troops Out of Africa Could Mean Another Endless War by Herman J. Cohen

Win Without Fighting
By Hunter Stires, Proceedings: “The United States is devoting significant energy to preparing for great power war, but China is waging a maritime insurgency—and could win without firing a shot."

Towards a Concept of Good Civilian Guidance by Alice Hunt Friend and Mara Karlin
The Nonsense of “Neo-Ottomanism” by Nicholas Danforth

Adi Schwartz: Western Indulgence of Palestinian 'Refugee' Claims Obstructs Peace
by Gary C. Gambill
May 31, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60812/adi-schwartz-how-western-indulgence-of-palestine

Russian Influence Grows in Central Asia
By Kseniya Kirillova, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "Russian influence in Central Asia is not limited to increasing economic integration. As early as October 2015, experts at the Minsk Center for Strategic and Foreign Political Research insisted that Russia was preparing a destabilization scenario intended to encourage conflict among the key governments and forces of the region."

Nuclear Fuel Working Group Recommends Key Steps to Safeguard U.S. Uranium Supply

STRATEGIKA:  CHINA

Aligning America’s ends and means in the Indo-Pacific

Cutting Carriers, Undermining the Most Useful U.S. Warfighting System
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "Defense News reported this week that a Pentagon office has proposed reducing the number of aircraft carriers in the U.S. fleet from eleven to nine. That may not sound like much, but in operational terms it means that on a typical day the Navy would only be able to have two or three carriers forward deployed near global hot spots."

Strategy And The Continental Commitment
by Williamson Murray via Military History in the News
In the 1930s, the British military pundit B. H. Liddell Hart argued that Britain’s participation in the First World War with a massive commitment to France to fight the Germans had been a terrible mistake. Instead, he argued, Britain, as it had supposedly done in the eighteenth and early nineteenth century, should have committed minimal forces to the continent and used its army and navy to attack Germany on the periphery. Liddell Hart’s arguments represented a rephrasing of the “blue water” school in British strategic thinking which had argued that Britain should focus almost entirely on the Royal Navy to the exclusion of spending any resources or committing any troops on the European Continent.

Measuring Power, Power Cycles, and the Risk of Great-Power War
Growing concern that U.S. power has been declining relative to that of Russia and China renews long-standing questions about how we should measure national power. Which nations have the most? Which are gaining and losing power, and when might these shifts portend conflict? Read more »

It's Time to Make a Full and Enduring Commitment to Iraq
American interests will suffer if strategic competition in Iraq is abandoned. U.S. policymakers should pursue a commitment to Iraq before opportunities are lost. The best way to establish that commitment is through robust, long-term, small-footprint assistance to the Iraqi Army. Read more »

'Quad Plus' Meetings Won't Cover China
The “Quad” countries met with several non-Quad countries to help each other amid the coronavirus pandemic. For all the good that can come of these countries working together, the Quad Plus, if sustained, may eventually jeopardize the Quad's primary mission: to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Read more »

U.S. Views Of China Plunge During Corona Crisis
by Michael R. Auslin via Real Clear Politics
A new poll by the Pew Research Center provides the clearest snapshot yet of the collapse in American views of China thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. Taken March 3-29, the big takeaway from the survey of 1,000 adults is that 66% now have a negative view of China, compared with 26% favorable. That is a 20% jump in unfavorable ratings since 2017 and a 6% rise since last year. 

The Rhymes of History: Beijing’s Nightmare Strategic Scenarios
By Michael Colebrook, Strategy Bridge: "History does not repeat itself. With the exception of general platitudes about the permanence of international tension and the sporadic recurrence of violent conflict, statements about historical patterns and cycles of warfare can at best lead to historiographical confirmation bias and, at worst, can prejudice policymakers into taking counterproductive and unnecessary escalatory measures."

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Why Rare Earths Independence is At Least as Important as Energy Independence

Lebanon, Hezbollah, and COVID-19

The Rise of the Liberal World Order
By Samantha A. Taylor, War Room: "Many foreign policy and international relations experts are expressing concern about the future of the liberal world order."

Undersea Deterrence and Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific
By Rory Medcalf, The Strategist (ASPI): "Amid rapid geopolitical change at the start of the 2020s, unfolding now in the Covid-19 crisis, nuclear weapons manifest grim continuity with the previous century. Especially persistent is a capability that has existed since the 1960s: the deployment of nuclear weapons on submarines."

Getting the Pacific Deterrence Initiative Right
By Benjamin Rimland & Patrick Buchan, The Diplomat: “The PDI will undoubtedly set the groundwork for U.S. defense posture in Asia for the foreseeable future. Getting it right matters."

What We Can Learn Today From the Victory of the Osama bin Laden Raid
By William H. McRaven & Michael Leiter, The Washington Post: "For those of us who played a small part in the mission that led to bin Laden’s death, this anniversary reminds us of something else: how to best protect our country."

The Case for Change
By David H. Berger, Marine Corps Gazette: “The United States Marine Corps I lead in 2020 finds itself, like the rest of the U.S. defense establishment, at a crossroads."

Still First to Fight? Shaping the 21st Century Marine Corps
By Frank G. Hoffman, FPRI: “Marine Force Design 2030The Marine Corps has earned its reputation in battle, but it has also excelled at anticipating demands for new capabilities to deal with the changing character of war.

  Ben Lowsen on Chinese PLA Ground Forces
(The Diplomat) Assessing the future trajectory of PLA ground forces development.

Patriot deployment to Iraq is helpful, but insufficient against Iran
(Defense News) The eviction of U.S. forces from Iraq represents a major strategic objective for the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Tehran has used its extraordinary influence in Baghdad to push for an American departure regardless of the interests of the Iraqi people.

A Chat with the Commandant: Gen. David H. Berger on the Marine Corps’ New Direction with Gen. David H. Berger and Ryan Evans

IN DEFENSE OF US GENERALSHIP

THE IDENTITY OF THE MARINE CORPS

China’s Strategic Assessment of India by Yun Sun

China's Defense Spending Is Larger Than It Looks
By Frederico Bartels, Defense One: “An early lesson emerging from China's handling of the COVID-19 emergency is that Beijing still manipulates data to fit its desired narrative."

Strategika Issue 63: Should The United States Leave The Middle East?
via Strategika
Strategika Issue 63 is now available online. Strategika is an online journal that analyzes ongoing issues of national security in light of conflicts of the past—the efforts of the Military History Working Group of historians

Leaving The Middle East: The Fallacy Of A False Dichotomy
by Admiral James O. Ellis Jr. via Strategika
In classical logic, the false dichotomy, or false dilemma, is defined as an argument where only two choices are presented yet more exist, or a spectrum of possible choices exists between two extremes. False dilemmas are usually characterized by “either this or that” language but can also be characterized by the omission of choices. This insidious tactic has the appearance of forming a logical argument, but under closer scrutiny it becomes evident that there are more possibilities than the either/or choice that is presented.

CSIS

https://www.wsj.com/articles/marines-plan-to-retool-to-meet-china-threat-11584897014

Mark F. Cancian writes: Gone are tanks and capabilities for sustained ground combat and counterinsurgency. Instead, the corps focuses on long-range and precision strike for a maritime campaign in the Western Pacific against China. But this new Marine Corps faces major risks if the future is different from that envisioned or if the new concepts for operations in a hostile environment prove more difficult to implement than the Marine Corps’ war games indicate. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

MH-47G Chinook Special Operations Helicopter
From Air Force-Technology: "The first new-build MH-47G helicopter was delivered to the USASOC in September 2014."

U.S., MIDDLE EAST:
CENTCOM Pushes a Dubious Carrier Strategy
By David Larter, Defense News: "U.S. Central Command is doubling down on a two-carrier strategy of questionable value and crippling consequences for Navy readiness."
U.S., INDO-PACIFIC:
Indo-Pacom Presses All Domain Ops; Sends Plan to Hill Soon
By Paul McLeary, Paul McLeary: “"For its backbone," Adm. Davidson said, "we need a joint -- joint -- network of training ranges capable of meeting the exercise, experimentation, and innovation objectives of the new warfighting concept.""

‘Behavioral Indicators’: Avoiding Self-Defeat in Countering Insider Threats
By Frank Tortorello, War Room: "In the counter-insider threat (CIT) world of the United States Department of Defense (DoD), the concept of a “behavioral indicator” is a primary basis for deciding whether an individual ought to be considered a threat to DoD resources."

What Compelled the Roman Way of Warfare? Killing for the Republic
By Rebecca Burgess, Strategy Bridge: "Any polity can field an army through compulsion or other violent means. What matters more is what makes your average person choose to stay on the battlefield."

What Syria Ought to Teach America About Competition with Russia by Aaron Stein

Supporting Joint Warfighting with Mission-Level Simulations by Robert Richbourg, June Rodriguez, David M. Gohlich, and James N. Bexfield

Horns of a Dilemma: Allies and American Foreign Policy with Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Kimberly Field  

RUSSIA:
Russia’s Su-57 Stealth Fighter Has Problems
By Caleb Larson, The National Interest: "All the cards are stacked against the Su-57 — the price of oil is low, it’s engines are no better than its predecessors, and the current airframes it would replace are doing just fine."

https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/even-coronavirus-couldnt-stop-the-2nd-us-carrier-visit-to-vietnam/

Heather A. Conley, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Matthew Melino write: The Kola Peninsula is the centerpiece of Russia’s military establishment in the western Arctic, and its air and maritime capabilities are essential to homeland defense, Arctic dominance, and global power projection capabilities. The concentration and range of  multi-domain assets— from SLBMs and ICBMs to EW—deployed on and around the Peninsula underscores the Arctic’s strategic value to Russian national interests. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​

Black Sea conflicts: Militarization and peacebuilding
The sheer density of protracted conflicts in the Black Sea region makes it particularly exposed to the geopolitical ambitions of regional and global powers. The rapid militarization in Russia-controlled territories in recent years has only added fuel to the fire, dramatically increasing security concerns and underscoring the need for the West and its allies in the region to address the so-called frozen conflicts.
Read article

How Iran’s regime set off a coronavirus bomb on its own economy
Saeed Ghasseminejad -- New York Post
The coronavirus has shattered any hope of the Iranian economy clawing out from under two years of deep recession. To the ruling regime’s chagrin, the virus has begun to adversely affect precisely those sectors that seemed poised for growth after weathering the return of US sanctions. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Iranian economy contracted 4.8 percent in 2018 and 9.5 percent in 2019. The closest thing to good news was that both the IMF and the World Bank forecasted zero growth in 2020. Read More

Sharpening the Iran File
Clifford D. May and Richard Goldberg — FDD's Foreign Podicy
The deal President Obama cut with Iran’s rulers provided them with billions of dollars and a “patient pathway” to the acquisition of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to targets anywhere on the planet. President Trump withdrew from that deal and, in its place, initiated a “maximum pressure” campaign of economic sanctions intended to change the regime’s behavior — if not change the regime itself. Listen Here

The UN’s Selective Outrage on Occupied Territories
Brenda Shaffer, Svante Cornell and Jonathan Schanzer — Real Clear World
Yesterday during remarks at the AIPAC annual conference, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo referred to the recent publication by the UN Human Rights Office of a database of companies that operate in the West Bank. Pompeo defined the report as “a real threat” that “only serves to facilitate the BDS movement and delegitimize Israel.” Pompeo declared that the United States will take actions on behalf of the “members of our business community that are being threatened by this release.” Read More

China’s Navy Shipbuilders Are ‘Outbuilding Everybody’
By Dave Makichuk, Asia Times: "Welcome to another headache for the Pentagon — it appears China has grasped accelerated shipbuilding technologies and related aircraft development as its march toward an imposing blue water navy continues unabated."

The PRC’s Cautious Stance on the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
By Yamazaki Amane, China Brief: "... the United States is not alone. Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Abe Shinzo has advocated Japan’s own “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy,” which he has discussed since 2016. This concept emphasizes economic development assistance and infrastructure construction, promotion of the rule of law, and freedom of trade. It particularly emphasizes maritime security and freedom of navigation—which connect directly to the territorial disputes that are a key point of ongoing contention between Japan and China."

CHINA:
China Unveils Latest Z-10 Attack Helicopter Variant
By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: “Chinese state-owned media released images of a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Zhishengji-10 (Z-10) attack helicopter fitted with new engine exhaust outlets."

Five Reasons the U.S. Army Deserves
to Be First in Line for More Modernization Funding
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “Army leaders saw what was coming and gave up on increasing the size of their force over a year ago. Instead, they opted to spend what discretionary resources they had on modernizing their weapons and networks. Many of the Army’s current weapons first entered the force in the 1980s; the service is long overdue for a technology refresh."

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-philippines-alliance-dying-123841 

Insufficient missile defense funding would leave Americans vulnerable
Bradley Bowman — Defense News
The U.S. Missile Defense Agency submitted its report on unfunded priorities to Congress last week, which includes a number of priorities worth more than $1.1 billion. The list demonstrates the tangible consequences of a flat Pentagon budget request and provides a road map for lawmakers to ensure that the U.S. homeland and America’s forward-deployed troops have sufficient missile defense protection. The Trump administration requested $705.4 billion for the Department of Defense for fiscal 2021, a level that fails to keep pace with inflation. Read More

China’s political warfare strategy takes hit from coronavirus
David Maxwell — Washington Examiner
The Wuhan coronavirus, or SARS-CoV-2 as the World Health Organization has named it and the Chinese would prefer it to be called, may be on the verge of becoming a pandemic. If it continues to spread, it may take a tragic toll on human life around the world. It is already having economic effects such as bringing down stock market prices and causing capital to evaporate. It is possible geostrategic relations will be altered in ways no one has anticipated. Read More

How The Revolutionary Guards Could Reshape Iran
Jonathan Schanzer – Quoted by Ilan Berman – The National Interest

Top 5 things to watch in Congress’ 2021 defense budget hearings
 Mackenzie Eaglen | Defense One
 The Pentagon has said that the FY21 budget will make the national defense strategy irreversible, but military top brass has been forced to make challenging program decisions under declining top lines.

​New U.S. Weapon Strengthens Nuclear Deterrence of Moscow

Mattis and Stavridis on Military-to-Civilian Leadership
By John Waters, Omaha World-Herald: “How did George Washington pull together the revolutionary army? It was very boring. It was listen and learn. (The leader) is actually there to coach them and be with them”: Jim Mattis said this to me over the phone in early January, noting that he applied the “listen and learn” technique to his own transition from four-star general to secretary of defense."

http://www.amazon.com/UnCivilization-Urban-Geopolitics-Time-Chaos/dp/1892998181/ref=sr

Remarks on the book by its author   It is impossible to formulate the answers to the complex strategic uncertainties we now face unless we first ask the appropriate questions. This is what I have attempted to do in my new book, UnCivilization: Urban Geopolitics in a Time of Chaos:1 to frame questions. And to postulate paths to the answers.

When, for example, will the modern world abandon its obsessive - and self-destructive - preoccupation with the tactical threat of terrorism, and begin to focus on the greater strategic context? How do we deal with the fragility of our now-profound dependence on energy, and the attendant long logistical lines to supply it, for every function of civilization, progress, and survival?

How and when will the lights of the great urban spread of mankind begin to flicker and falter? Will they shine brightly into the night in new places, or be sustained still in the cities which we have burnished with our familiarity? What follows when the ships and their cargoes of oil and goods come with less frequency? What happens when the surge in population peaks and suddenly goes into rapid decline? What happens to the balanced nation-state when the preponderance of the world's population lives in cities?

Will all or some of this happen soon? Will it happen at all? And what will be the result of all of this?

Is transformational change already upon us? Have we, in the midst of our striving for greater "democracy", emerged into a situation where - in most of our modern societies - the greater populations are subjects to their governments, rather than the intended goal that governments should be subject to the people? Is this part of the sclerosis of accumulated laws and entitlements?

Change for the most part occurs inexorably over the seemingly gentle sea of history; grinding, like the mills of God, slowly, but exceeding fine. What makes change tolerable - and strategic affairs manageable - is that this evolution usually appears to occur imperceptibly and with the calmness of moss growing on old logs. Sudden change causes disorientation and panic, both to individuals and societies.

The period into which we are now embarking will involve much sudden change. The familiarity of old routines, established forms, and familiar hierarchies will, in many respects, disappear. It is, indeed, already happening. And it has happened before. It is how societies, cultures, and civilizations emerge or evaporate. Individuals and societies can, however, adapt to new realities, both good and bad. In the process, they often forget the paths and triggers which led to the dramatic watersheds thrust upon them. Most people, and most societies, do not have a conscious view of their past or their future; they merely react. They are swept in a storm of reaction, and have no control over it, no understanding of it. They are the last leaves of autumn swept by blustering air, whose movement was dictated by the pull of a distant moon, the heat of a distant sun. Like the leaves, they question not the cause of their present situation, even if they bemoan their fate.

I wrote this new book, UnCivilization, to gain a measure of our present shape, as a human society, and to understand whence the gale has its origins, and whither it will dispatch us.

Iranian Missiles and Americans Exposed
By Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, RealClearDefense: “President Trump boasted in military in his State of the Union address Wednesday night. Trump is right that the military has received significant investments during his tenure. But recent events also reveal where there are vulnerabilities."

U.S. Missile Defense Woefully Prepared for 21st Century Threats
By Jared Whitley, RealClearDefense: “Whereas mutually assured destruction kept the world relatively safe during the Cold War, the proliferation of nuclear capabilities has turned Planet Earth into a ticking, radioactive timebomb."

To Deter China, the Naval Services Must Integrate
By Mike Gallagher, War on the Rocks: “Change on the scale envisioned by the National Defense Strategy isn't always easy, or pretty. Observers of American strategy often wonder how the United States will focus on great power competition when it cannot escape the gravitational pull of the Middle East. This is a worthy topic of debate and causes me no small amount of consternation as well. But even as Washington might look for ways to bring its commitments in the Middle East to a more sustainable level, let's not ignore the lessons simmering conflicts there and elsewhere have for facing down great powers in the Indo-Pacific and Europe."

U.S.-China Competition in Asia: Who Risks Wins
By Sam Roggeveen, the interpreter: “The two key questions for America’s allies in Asia are how long do they want to maintain a U.S.-centered strategic posture, and when do they start preparing for a post-American future?"

China in the Levant
By John Toolan Jr., John Bird & Harry Hoshovsky, RealClearDefense: “Over the past decade, we’ve seen great power jockeying return to the Eastern Mediterranean with China using its deep pockets to secure influence with key U.S. allies as a means to further its global ambitions and adversely impact the United States’ national security interests."

Richard Matlock writes: Over the past five years, missile threats have evolved far more rapidly than conventional wisdom had predicted. […]The 2019 Missile Defense Review called for a comprehensive approach to countering regional missiles of all kinds and from whatever source, as well as the increasingly complex intercontinental ballistic missiles from rogue states. But programs and budgets have not yet aligned with the policy. The upcoming defense budget submission presents an important opportunity to address these new and complex challenges. – Defense News

The First Element–Leadership and Combat Power
By Jeff Barta & Patrick O'Keefe, The Company Leader:  "What does it take to bring the full power of the U.S. Army to bear upon enemies of America?"

Thinking Before Shooting: Intelligence and Special Operations
By Steve Balestrieri, SOFREP: “The last 16 years have seen our forces fighting a different kind of war, with a different set of parameters. But we shouldn’t forget the hard lessons learned through the decades of the Cold War. Because we’re going to need them."

Whose National Interest? Which Foreign Policy?
By Michael Colebrook, Strategy Bridge: "Foreign policy consensus is rare in America, just as moral consensus is the stuff of fairy tales. However, difficulty in reaching agreement  is no excuse to succumb to relativism or blind fatalism."

“Unrestricted Warfare is a book on military strategy written in 1999 by two colonels in the People's Liberation Army, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. Its primary concern is how a nation such as China can defeat a technologically superior opponent through a variety of means.”


David Rennie, The Economist magazine in Beijing; writes the “Chaguan” column; in re: Artificial intelligence; the contest between the US and China. From the first Cold War: how adversaries can agree not to destroy each other: even when you don't trust each other at all, you can nonetheless discuss a new technology that could abruptly change everything, destroy everything. Now we have three, not two, parties: Russia, US, China.  Even during the Cold War, you could send an inspector to see what was being done; but no way to see an algorithm.  . . . Unenforceable compliance.  We’re left making a distinction: countries’ saying it’s best not to have this technology; but among major powers (not rogue powers), it’s possible for large countries to agree that biowar, for example, is unimaginably dangerous & stupid, just not worth having. . . .  The PLA is focussed on nonnuclear war.
..  ..  ..  
In 1999 the Chinese released a book entitled, Unrestricted Warfare. Commentary: “. . .  PLA doctrine. . . . has focused on developing a joint operation doctrine for fighting limited, high-intensity conflicts using high-tech weapons.”  
https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg614af.10?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents