Geography & Strategy - CounterStrikeMedia

U.S. AIR POWER, INNOVATION & THE DANGER OF MIGHT WITHOUT POWER

2/28/2018

Interwar Airpower, Grand Strategy, and Military Innovation
By Michael Trimble, Strategy Bridge: “Today’s senior defense leaders can’t get enough innovation. The United States National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the U.S. military service strategies all stress the capacity for innovation as an American comparative advantage. Clearly, there is great demand for military professionals who can innovate. But what does innovation look like in a peacetime or interwar military? How is it done?”

War by Other Means – Integrating Modern Technology
By Matt Sivacek, RealClearDefense: “...military, economic, and scientific experts are aware of the Achilles Heel that will always plague the system – simple interference through jamming, spoofing or meaconing. Is it time for another navigation option?”

The Danger of Might Without Power
By Ali Wyne, the interpreter: “The extent to which a greater military presence in the Asia-Pacific would shore up U.S. influence depends on at least two factors: America’s ability to rebalance away from the Middle East; and its skill in accepting the inevitability of competition with China without pursuing a path of confrontation.”

TIME TO REVISIT 1973 CONGRESSIONAL WAR POWERS ACT

2/26/2018

Time to Revisit the War Powers Act of 1973
By Hugo Kirk and Reid Smith, RealClearDefense: “When Congress passed the War Powers Resolution in 1973, it did so to reestablish procedures for Congress and the president to share responsibility for the introduction of armed forces into foreign conflicts.”

Game On: Getting American Power Back in the Field
By Nate Freier, War Room: “After two and a half years of work, troubling insights have emerged. Overall, the United States appears to be a reluctant great power persistently outmaneuvered and outplayed by its pacing and priority competitors.”

War Powers: Return to Congress
By Michael Shindler, RealClearDefense: “The theologian William Ellery Channing once famously remarked, “The cry has been that when war is declared, all opposition should be hushed. A sentiment more unworthy of a free country could hardly be propagated.””

Tressa Guenov and Tommy Ross write: The Niger case shows how challenging oversight can be for a stretched Congress and how any U.S. military action, no matter how obscure or seemingly routine, is tremendously risky and requires constant vigilance. Indeed, the case is indicative of a broader problem: Legislative branch oversight of America’s national security enterprise is under more stress than ever before. - War on the Rocks

NORTH KOREA IS A TOOL OF CHINA

2/24/2018

North Korea’s Time-Buying Strategy
By Khang Vu, the interpreter: “Due to North Korea’s weak conventional force, the country has long adopted an “asymmetric escalation” strategy for its nuclear arsenal. This requires a large nuclear force with dependable first-use capability to thwart both nuclear and conventional attacks."

THE STATE OF DEFENSE 2018

2/23/2018

So the State of Defense for 2018 is stable? Not exactly. The one consensus seems to be the view that, under Trump, America is no longer the world’s clear leader. And that is a titanic change.

This is the landscape in which the Pentagon is operating into 2018. Below are our looks into the year ahead for the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps — all of which are receiving new missions from the new political bosses and new promises:

WHAT'S RUSSIAN FOR C.O.I.N.: EXPORTING GROZNY TO SYRIA

2/21/2018

Gifts from Grozny: The Export of the Russian COIN Model to Syria
By Kiril Avramov, Small Wars Journal: “The alterative model for Syrian reconstruction the Russians tabled came as a sharp ironic response to the British and American reaction in 2016 to the fact that Russia is turning Aleppo into Syrian version of Grozny, the capital of city of the Chechen Republic, meaning the city’s devastation by the Russian offensive”

RETHINKING THE GEOGRAPHY OF POWER

2/21/2018

The Classicist: Rethinking The Geography Of Power
interview with Victor Davis Hanson via The Classicist
Want to see a change in our governing institutions? Force them to move.

HOW THE US DOMINATES THE PACIFIC

2/21/2018

India's Rivalry With China
By Brendan Thomas-Noone, the interpreter: “...details have emerged in recent weeks that indicate the crisis was even more serious than many realised. It may be one of the first episodes to demonstrate the evolving risks (and potential long-term benefits) that the introduction of nuclear-armed submarines will have on strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific.”

How To Implement The National Defense Strategy In Pacific
By Andrew Krepinevich, Wednesday, February 21, 2018 4:15 AM

In an American Consequences essay, Eberstadt explains why the Kim regime is pursuing nuclear weapons in the first place. North Korea’s leadership is methodically preparing for a nuclear showdown against the United States and its allies in the Korean peninsula — and it is planning to win that confrontation. Read the full essay.

Is it possible to stop Kim Jong Un in his tracks? Dan Blumenthal argues that the widely discussed strategy of “maximum pressure,” properly implemented, could do just that. Designed to shut down all sources of revenue to North Korea, this strategy will require secondary sanctions on China, forceful crackdowns on North Korean laborers abroad, and the confronting of third-party states that directly engage with the Kim regime. Read what else the strategy entails here.

P-8 Poseidon: Countering Chinese Aggression in the Indo-Pacific
By Rathna K. Muralidharan, RealClearDefense: “As Beijing’s military continues to encroach on its neighbors’ naval territories and claim international waters for itself, Pacific countries are looking for systems to monitor and secure their borders.”

America Needs to Reorient Its South Asia Policy
By Akhilesh Pillalamarri, RealClearDefense: “South Asia is at the center of global geopolitical and economic trends. It is a rapidly developing region, containing a quarter of the world’s people. India, soon to be the world’s most populous country, is the fastest growing major economy in the world, having surpassed China last year.”

Trump's Indo-Pacific Vision: A Solid Idea, Hard to Pull Off
By Joshua Kurlantzick, Aspenia: “But the Trump White House is attempting to build its Asia strategy around an approach that is somewhat different from the rebalance - an approach it calls a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” This is actually a regional approach that was first enunciated by Japan.”

LEGACY OF EMPIRE BUILDING: ANCIENT CHINESE WAR

2/15/2018

The lure of the ‘great power’
Phillip Lohaus | US News & World Report

The legacy of empire-building: Ancient Chinese Warfare. by Ralph D. Sawyer

The history of China is a history of warfare. Rarely in its 3,000-year existence has the country not been beset by war, rebellion, or raids. Warfare was a primary source of innovation, social evolution, and material progress in the Legendary Era, Hsia dynasty, and Shang dynasty--indeed, war was the force that formed the first cohesive Chinese empire, setting China on a trajectory of state building and aggressive activity that continues to this day.

In Ancient Chinese Warfare, a preeminent expert on Chinese military history uses recently recovered documents and archaeological findings to construct a comprehensive guide to the developing technologies, strategies, and logistics of ancient Chinese militarism. The result is a definitive look at the tools and methods that won wars and shaped culture in ancient China.

PYONGYANG SPLITS THE ALLIANCE: SOUTH KOREA GOES IT ALONE

2/15/2018

The Strategic Implications of Effective Population Defense Against Ballistic Missiles
By Uzi Rubin, Strategy Bridge: “Before the 20th century, wars were often confined to distant battlefields. The advent of air power brought wars to home fronts. A new strategy for winning wars not by Clausewitzian decisive battles but by the use of airpower against home fronts was first offered by Giulio Douhet in 1921.”

MATTIS & AUSTRALIA; WHY HUNGARY AND POLAND MATTER FOR THE LONG WAR

2/15/2018

James Mattis’ National Defence Strategy and Australia
By Kim Beazley, The Strategist (ASPI): “In the NDS perhaps, the most comforting statement was that the U.S. saw that its rapidly renovating joint force ‘combined with a robust constellation of allies and partners, will sustain American influence and ensure favorable balances of power that safeguard free and open international order.’”

New ambassadors to Budapest and Warsaw will face a steep learning curve
Dalibor Rohac | AEIdeas

THE CIA'S OPEN SOURCE CENTER SPEAKS

2/12/2018

Carmen Landa Middleton, former director of the CIA’s Open Source Center, offers three simple strategies for organizations that produce open-source intelligence assessments to remain a competitive advantage:

Maintain Scale: “Global coverage of the less important areas of the world is constantly under threat, as managers contend with the resource tradeoffs necessitated by limited budgets and the demands of the highest priority targets.”
Invest in Tools and Strategies: “Technological solutions to address the information challenges posed not only by the speed and volume of data, but also the authenticity of that data, are being developed at a head-spinning pace.”
Leverage the Competition’s Strengths: “Considering what current work might be better provided by outside competition in order to focus on the most important and urgent intelligence questions would be wise, as the competition is here to stay.”

Read Middleton’s column on how open-source intelligence gathering is rapidly evolving – and how intel professionals should react.

TODAYS LESSONS ON THE 30 YEARS WAR & SOURCES OF AMERICA'S SOFT POWER

2/11/2018

The Real Lesson Of The Thirty Years' War For Today
by Ralph Peters via Military History in the News
The Thirty Years’ War in the German states between 1618 and 1648 has been invoked repeatedly in discussing the Syrian conflict, with commentators focusing on the multiple sides in the struggle and the interference by great powers. While those are surface similarities, there have been plenty of multi-sided conflicts and competitive great power interventions. The real lessons we might take to heart are that it’s far easier to get into conflicts that mingle dynastic ambitions, competing faiths, and quarrelsome ethnicities than it is to get out of them; that extended periods of warfare impose disproportionate casualties on civilian populations; and that late entrants have the best chance of winning.

Donald Trump and the Decline of U.S. Soft Power
By Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): “A country’s soft power comes primarily from three sources: its culture (when it is attractive to others), its political values such as democracy and human rights (when it lives up to them), and its policies (when they are seen as legitimate because they are framed with some humility and awareness of others’ interests).”

WEAPONS THAT FORGED ENGLAND'S EMPIRE & RAPID EVOLUTION OF AIR POWER

2/11/2018

Weapons That Forged the U.K.'s Empire
By Brandon Christensen, RealClearHistory: “The British Empire’s military should be best known for quick wars that had remarkably light casualties (on both sides). Part of this has to do with the fact that the U.K. was very good at avoiding conflict with major European continental powers, and even better at picking its fights (and its allies) in other parts of the world.”

Rapid Evolution of Air Combat Power
By Robbin Laird & Edward Timperlake, Second Line of Defense: “The introduction of stealth designed sensor fusion aircraft with new secure communication systems and an inherent ability to trigger a wide range of multi-service; multi-domain combat assets is the foundation for understanding what comes next.”

THE NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW

2/6/2018

The Need for Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapon Systems: The NPR Got It Right
By Bradley A. Thayer, RealClearDefense: “The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) released last month called for the development of a new low yield warhead and new delivery systems to address shortfalls in existing deterrent capabilities.

What’s Missing in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review
By Vaughn Standley, RealClearDefense: “The NPR is predicated on deterrence, which is about “decisively influencing an adversary’s decision calculus to prevent attack or the escalation of a conflict.” What’s missing in the NPR are substantive new information-related approaches to achieving this goal.”

Are ‘Defense Hawks’ and ‘Fiscal Conservatives’ at Odds?
By Jake Grant, RealClearDefense: “On the fifth continuing resolution since the beginning of the fiscal year, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff explained that the “lack of predictability and that lack of stability in the budget has not allowed us to most efficiently plan and use the resources available to us.””

A Realist National Security Strategy
By Zalmay Khalilzad, The National Interest: “The Hallmark of the Donald Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS), which was released in December, is the idea of “principled realism.” This marks a decided shift from the policies of Trump’s two immediate predecessors.”

Experimentation: The Road to Discovery
By Tom Greenwood & Jim Greer, Strategy Bridge: “The 4+1 threats are Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, plus the threat of violent extremist organizations and their innovative, information-led strategies that include “little green men,” “grey zone confrontations,” and even threats of nuclear attack on the U.S. homeland. The nature of these threats is such that the joint force is re-focusing its thinking on how best to fight high-end competitors employing complex or hybrid mixes of capabilities and strategies.”

Strategic Counterterrorism Failure?
By Alex Gallo, Modern War Institute: “A military-centric, largely standoff approach has seemed to dominate the United States’ counterterrorism policy overseas since 1998. Yet, during this same time period, jihadist groups such as al-Qaeda have evolved and new jihadist groups such as ISIS have come onto the scene and expanded geographically.”

The Lament of the U.S. National Defence Strategy
By Mike Scrafton, The Strategist (ASPI): “China is a large, established, internationally recognised state and a permanent member of the Security Council. It’s a revisionist power. The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and the BRI shows that China is trying to reshape some international institutions and trade patterns.”

The New U.S. Nuclear Posture Review: Return to Realism
By Hans Rühle, National Institute for Public Policy: “That the new NPR would draw criticism was to be expected. For anti-nuclear activists and arms control enthusiasts, the 2018 NPR does indeed provide little comfort.”

NPR DOCUMENT

TCB's Walter Pincus read through the 100-page Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) released by the Trump administration last Friday.

Pincus highlights some portions of the document that stand out:

"[The NPR] says the U.S. needs to add new low-yield nuclear warheads to its already ample nuclear stockpile...In various NATO countries, the United States has stationed 200-plus B-61 tactical nuclear bombs, current and older versions of which have dial-a-yield settings that allow various explosive yields...The NPR makes no mention of the low-yield capability of the B-61."
"The Trump NPR also calls for exploring reversal of an Obama administration decision in its 2010 NPR that retired the Navy’s sub-launched nuclear cruise missile (SLCM), calling it redundant...[the authors] see the NPR revival of the Navy sub-launched nuclear cruise missile as a bargaining chip to get the Russians to return to compliance with the INF Treaty, which they have violated by employing a ground-based cruise missile in Europe."

Read more insights from Pincus on the 2018 NPR.

Continuity and Change in U.S. Nuclear Policy
By John R. Harvey, Franklin C. Miller, Keith B. Payne & Bradley H. Roberts, RealClearDefense: “This month, the Trump administration all but pledged itself to an open-ended nation-building operation in U.S.-occupied, northeast Syria. Given America’s uninspiring recent track record, this should concern us all.”

The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review: All Quiet on the Eastern Front
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): “The US commits itself to doing four things ‘to maintain credible extended deterrence and thus effective assurance in this complex environment.’”

America’s Two Doctrines
By Sam Roggeveen, the interpreter: “China’s rise presents a type of challenge America has never faced before in the Asia Pacific: in economic terms it is much more substantial than the Soviet Union (always more of a European power), and on present trends China’s military capabilities in the region will match those of the U.S. in a decade or two.”

2018-national-defense-strategy-summary.pdf
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Mattis: New U.S. Nuclear Capabilities Needed to Deter Moscow
Pentagon chief Jim Mattis defended the administration’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) as the right response to Russia’s rising nuclear capacity and its failure to abide by international treaties, in comments to the House Armed Services Committee Tuesday.

On responding to Russia’s buildup of low-yield nuclear weapons:“We don’t want someone else to miscalculate and think that because they are going to use a low-yield weapon, somehow we would confront what [former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger] calls ‘surrender or suicide.’”

On re-introducing a sea-launched, nuclear-capable cruise missile:“The idea is…to keep our negotiators negotiating from a position of strength…I don’t think the Russians would be willing to give up something to gain nothing from us.”

Despite calling for greater nuclear capabilities, Mattis insisted the strategy is ultimately part of arms control efforts:

“The United States remains committed to its global leadership role to reduce the number of nuclear weapons…We must recognize that deterrence and arms control can only be achieved with a credible capability.”

Read more highlights of the hearing.

BREAKING DEFENSE: ON THE NPR DOCUMENT

The United States has the most diverse and potent nuclear force on the planet, capable of deterring and, if necessary, defeating and destroying any military and any nation on earth. The Trump administration’s recently released Nuclear Posture Review doesn’t think that’s enough. - War on the Rocks

A Nuclear Posture Review Needed for the Return of Great Power Competition
By Bradley A. Thayer, RealClearDefense: “The NPR is an important step forward for aiding the U.S. position in the world in the face of historical challenges from its great power rivals.”

Nuclear Posture Review Weakens Deterrence
By Dave Adams, RealClearDefense: “At first glance, the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) appears to right the nation’s strategic ship by committing to modernizing our nuclear arsenal and by rightly positioning nuclear strategy at the center of the nation’s effort to deter a great power war. ”

The Nuclear Posture Review: Fiction and Fact
By Franklin C. Miller, RealClearDefense: “Informed public debate is vital to any functioning democracy. But for that debate to be informed, Americans need to read and understand the proposal and judge based on its merits.”

Department of Energy Risking Nuclear Deterrence and National Security
By Franklin C. Miller, RealClearDefense: “According to the recent 2018 Nuclear Posture review, a smoothly functioning nuclear weapons industrial base is essential to a credible strategic deterrent.”

The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) includes a long-term plan that could put nuclear cruise missiles aboard the new Zumwalt class (DDG 1000) of stealthy Navy destroyers, according to the commander of U.S. Strategic Command. - DOD Buzz

Daniel Cebul writes: The announcement of two new low-yield nuclear weapons programs in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review has led to a discussion about the utility of so-called nonstrategic, or tactical, nuclear weapons. - Defense News

U.S. FUELS MEXICO'S DOMESTIC PROBLEMS & VIETNAM'S INTERNAL PROBLEMS GROW FOR U.S. ENGAGEMENT

2/5/2018

U.S.–Vietnamese Cooperation:
Current, Not Past, Issues Are the Limiting Factor
By Huong Le Thu, The Strategist (ASPI): “While the carrier’s arrival will have considerable symbolism—given the 50th anniversary of the Tet Offensive—the controversy it may well bring arises not from history but from current power plays in the region.”

Tyranny of the Majority: U.S.-fueled Instability in Mexico
By Bryan Baker, Small Wars Journal: “The overwhelming majority of Mexico’s internal instability- the violence, corruption and impunity- is funded by drug sales in the United States. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson recently addressed this issue bluntly: “...we as Americans must confront that we are the market ...”

HOW TANK WARFARE IS CHANGING FAST

2/2/2018

A lesson for Kim Jong-un: tank warfare is changing fast
STEPHEN BRYEN
The modern battlefield is rapidly changing and old assumptions about the use of tanks and other armor are in doubt. This means that some adversaries who lack the latest up-to-date systems may find themselves in big trouble. Especially North Korea. In 1975, on the last leg of a Middle East trip, I visited the US Embassy in Tel Aviv. One of the defense attachés there told me Israel was well along on developing its own battle tank,...

EXAMINING THE LIMITS OF LIMITED STRIKES & WHAT HAPPENED TO THE ART OF DIPLOMACY

2/2/2018

The Limits of a Limited Strike
By Robert C. Watts, IV, Proceedings Magazine: “North Korea’s rapidly improving nuclear arsenal poses an intractable problem: should the United States accept the new reality of a nuclear-armed North Korea with intercontinental reach, or should it pre-emptively strike Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and missiles? The Telegraph reports that the Trump administration is considering strikes against North Korea to “get their attention and show that we’re serious.””

What Happened to the Art of Diplomacy?
By Jyri Raitasalo, RealClearDefense: “Real, credible military capabilities - together with other elements of national power - are part of the diplomatic process, through which adversaries engage each other, make their interests more understandable and try to find a solution that is acceptable to both or all parties involved.”

THE "IN" IN C.O.I.N., RANKING AMERICA'S ENEMIES & THE SELF KNOWLEDGE OF COGNITIVE WAR

2/1/2018

Knowing Yourself Is Key in Cognitive Warfare
By Robert P. Kozloski, CHIPS: “Over two thousand years ago, the Chinese General Sun Tzu famously observed in The Art of War, “Know the enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles you will never be in peril. If ignorant of both your enemy and yourself, you are certain in every battle to be in peril.””

Understanding the 'IN' in COIN
By Dean Shumate, Small Wars Journal: “Administration after administration has failed to learn what “internal wars” are all about and how best to go about intervening in them.”

Ranking America’s Enemies
By Clifford D. May, The Washington Times: “These “revisionist powers” seek “to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model — gaining veto authority over other nations’ economic, diplomatic, and security decisions.” For these and other reasons, they pose the “central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security.””

GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS

ATLAS PRO YOUTUBE

DOUGLAS BARRIE: SPACE DEFENSE

THOMAS BUSSING: RAYTHEON MISSILE DEFENSE, STRATEGIEST

JAMES ACTON: NUCLEAR MISSILE DEFENSE

DR. MICHAEL PILLSBURY

HENRY ROWEN
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CHARLES WOLF JR.
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ANDREW MASHALL 'YODA'
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AMERICA NEEDS NEW ALLIANCES

why_america_needs_new_alliances_-_wsj.pdf
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POLYBIUS & ANCIENT GRAND STRATEGY
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CENTER FOR POLITICAL & MILITARY POWER

SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA ANYMORE

SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA
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THE QURAN & MORAL STRATEGY FOR THE LONG WAR

WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS

WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS
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THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE PELOPONNESIAN WAR

WHAT HAPPENED DURING PELOPONNESIAN WAR
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THUCYDIDES TRAP IS GREAT POWER COMPETITION

THUCYDIDES TRAP = GREAT POWER COMPETITION
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CENTER STRATEGIC, BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS: U.S. GRAND STRATEGY

DAVID P. GOLDMAN COLUMN ASIA TIMES

HOW BEST TO UNDERSTAND U.S. - CHINA RELATIONS

STRATEGY BRIDGE

Winning World War IV David P. Goldman.pdf
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THE NEW ASIAN OBSERVER

Tweets by WilliamHolland

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