Geography & Strategy - CounterStrikeMedia

HENRY DAVID THOREAU & A PLUTOCRATIC INSURGENCY

3/28/2018

Henry David Thoreau Versus the Plutocratic Insurgency
By Bryan T. Baker, Small Wars Journal: “It is said that when Benjamin Franklin emerged from Independence Hall on the last day of deliberations at the Constitutional Convention, he was asked what type of government had been created. The ailing statesman, who had only three more years to live, famously replied: “a republic, if you can keep it.””

FIGHTING THE HYPERSONIC ISKANDER RUSSIAN MISSILE

3/27/2018

NORTH KOREA FIGHTING CAPABILITIES

3/27/2018

Institute for Science & Int’l Security on North Korea proliferation

Revisit Nicholas Eberstadt’s recent essay for Commentary magazine, in which he explains what made North Korea’s economic “comeback” under Kim possible, and what role manipulating the West played in that process. Catch it here.

Institute for Science & Int’l Security: North Korea expanding reactor capability for plutonium

Leon E. Panetta writes: A serious negotiation with North Korea would have to include Mr. Trump pressing Mr. Kim to freeze nuclear and missile testing, halt the production of nuclear weapons fuel and the deployment of nuclear weapons, and establish a verification process that will require an inspection regime. - CNB

THE COUNTER-TERRORISM YEARBOOK FOR 2018

3/27/2018

The Counterterrorism Yearbook 2018
By Sofia Patel, The Strategist (ASPI): “Three key factors defined the terrorist threat landscape in 2017: the international coalition’s military dismantling of Islamic State’s (IS) caliphate, and their return to a nebulous insurgency structure; increased IS activity in South East Asia catalysed by the battle for Marawi; and the potential resurgence of al-Qaeda.”

ELIOT COHEN ON McMASTER

3/26/2018

McMaster's Choice // Eliot A. Cohen
Before he was the national-security adviser, he wrote a lacerating account of generals who failed in advising Lyndon Johnson. What will he say now that he is free to talk about Trump?

POLAND'S MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM DELAYED 2 YEARS & LIMITS OF MODELS IN WAR

3/25/2018

Crucial Polish Missile Defense Site Delayed Two Years: MDA

John Boyd on Clausewitz: Don’t Fall in Love with Your Mental Model
By Ian T. Brown, Strategy Bridge: “Overlaying a Clausewitzian framework on the adversary du jour can be problematic, as said adversaries do not always share that strategic perspective.”

SEPARATING NORTH KOREA FROM ITS NUKES

3/21/2018

President Donald Trump has agreed to meet North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, but the Pentagon just announced it would restart military drills with South Korea—a good cop, bad cop approach apparently intended to keep the pressure on ahead of talks.

Joseph DeTrani, former Special Envoy for negotiations with North Korea, shares what advice he would offer the president, from his interactions with North Korean officials:

“During two years of intense negotiations with North Korea, from August 2003 to September 2005, North Korea’s constant refrain to U.S. negotiators was, ‘Accept us as a nuclear weapons state and we’ll be a good friend of the U.S.’… Kim Jong Un would establish his legacy if he could normalize relations with the U.S.”
“If Kim Jong Un is convinced that this would never happen, then Kim may revert to plan B: Get the U.S. to agree to a cap on the number of nuclear weapons the North can retain, promising not to manufacture any additional fissile material or weapons. Kim may think that plan B is attainable, with time and perseverance.”

Read DeTrani’s analysis.

THE DEFEAT OF ISIS ALLOWS US NAVY TO CHANGE

3/20/2018

The rollback of ISIS forces in Iraq and Syria and changes in how Iran operates in the Persian Gulf are prompting the U.S. Navy to evolve how it operates its carrier strike groups in the Middle East. - USNI News

The South Korean Army plans to deploy surface-to-surface missiles in a newly created counter-artillery brigade by October, with the aim of destroying North Korea’s hardened long-range artillery sites near the Demilitarized Zone, should conflict erupt on the Korean Peninsula. - Defense News

HOW ARMY GETS THAAD & PATRIOT TO TALK

3/20/2018

Army to Get THAAD and Patriot Systems to Communicate
By Jen Judson, Defense News: “The approach could enhance the development of the Army’s future AMD command-and-control system, the Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command System — or IBCS.”

Army's Interim Short Range Air Defense (SHORAD) Solution
By Jen Judson, Defense News: “The U.S. Army plans to choose an interim solution to meet a much-needed Short Range Air Defense (SHORAD) capability in Europe by the end of the year.”

HOW TRUMP FIXES ASIA & A NEW ORDER FOR THE INDO-PACIFIC

3/17/2018

A New Order for the Indo-Pacific
By Brahma Chellaney, The Strategist (ASPI): “Security dynamics are changing rapidly in the Indo-Pacific. The region is home not only to the world’s fastest-growing economies, but also to the fastest-increasing military expenditures and naval capabilities, the fiercest competition over natural resources, and the most dangerous strategic hot spots. One might even say that it holds the key to global security.”

THE GEOPOLITICS OF ASIA: WHY CHINA HISTORICALLY RULED

3/16/2018

Mackinder and Mahan: The Chinese Geopolitics in South Asia
By Jennifer Loy, RealClearDefense: “The partnership of Mackinder and Mahan’s theories are found within the PRC’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) project. ”

Understanding India and China’s Evolving Indian Ocean Roles
By J. Michael Barrett, RealClearDefense: “Beijing claims the South China Sea as China’s own. But it completely rejects any notion that the Indian Ocean should be treated either as India’s ocean or as an Indian preserve. The implications of these inconsistent positions may become increasingly important in the China–India relationship, and have important consequences for other countries in the region.”

PREPARING FOR WAR: U.S. LOSES PRIMACY OF AUTONOMY IN PREPARATION FOR CONFLICT

3/12/2018

Preparing For War
By Mike Morris, Strategy Bridge: “U.S. forces have mostly enjoyed the relative autonomy necessary to figure out what must be done to prepare for combat.

Too Much 'Can Do,' Not Enough Candor
By Steve Cohen & Randy Forbes, The Hill: “The reason these risks were termed “acceptable” is that our current notion of acceptability — or accountability — often does not reach high enough.

Causes of War: A Theory Analysis
By Kyle Amonson, Small Wars Journal: “War and conflict has been as much a constant in human history as humans. As Kenneth Waltz states, “there is no peace in a condition of anarchy,” and there will always be a form of anarchy as long as human nature is a variable in our complex domestic and international systems.”

HOW TO DETER CHINA IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

3/12/2018

Options for the U.S. to Deter China in the East & South China Seas
By Christopher Curtin & Annie Kowalewski, Divergent Options: “China is showing no evidence of slowing down its territorial aspirations within the “nine-dash line” and continues to emplace anti-aircraft guns and close-in weapons systems on its man-made islands in the East and South China Seas. China also uses its maritime militia to bull neighboring countries and extend Chinese fishing rights and territorial reach. The United States has thus far been unsuccessful in responding to or deterring these Chinese challenges to the status quo.”

How China Is Challenging American Dominance in Asia
(New York Times) Every Asian country now trades more with China than with the U.S., often by a factor of two to one. Here’s how the outlines of the rivalry are defining the future of the continent.

HOW WE GOT THE M.A.D. DOCTRINE FOR AN ARMS RACE RUSSIA LOST

3/11/2018

WASHINGTON RESPONDS HALF-HEARTEDLY TO THE NEW MAO

3/11/2018

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/mar/5/xi-jinping-now-president-for-life-figures-to-be-as/

WHO LOST CHINA AGAIN, AN OLD CANARD

3/11/2018

CHINA & RUSSIA'S NEW WEAPON SYSTEMS

3/11/2018

CAN THE WAR MACHINES BE STOPPED?

3/11/2018

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/averting-the-us-russia-warpath-24604

THE REFORM OF CHINA'S MILITARY

3/10/2018

China’s Military Revolution: Smarter, Better, Faster, Smaller
From The Cipher Brief: “China’s growing ability to project military force – buttressed by the opening of its first overseas naval base in Djibouti, its artificial islands in the South China Sea and rapid naval advancements – is a worrying development from the perspective of the U.S. and its allies, as China seeks to reshape the existing international order.”

TROUBLED TRANS-ATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP

3/6/2018

Troubles on the 'Sea of Atlas': The Transatlantic Partnership
By Mike Scrafton, The Strategist (ASPI): “The relationship between Europe and the U.S. has been strained, volatile, adaptive, reactive and yet robust. However, as the shared domestic consensus on democratic institutions, liberal values and global vision weakens, and alternatives emerge internationally, the longevity of the relationship as now constituted must be questioned.”

THE MOMENTS THAT MAKE WAR & THE TRAP OF EMPIRE

3/6/2018

The Moments That Make a War
By Steve Leonard, Modern War Institute: “After nearly two decades of war, most of us can point to that defining moment, when clarity shone through the fog of war for a brief instant, forever frozen in time.”

The Trap of Empire and Authoritarianism
By Robert D. Kaplan, The National Interest: “For thousands of years the tragedy of politics has been that empire affords the answer to chaos. Imperialism, as the Oxford historian John Darwin says, “has been the default mode of political organization throughout most of history,” as the capabilities needed to build strong states, owing to the patterns of geography, were never evenly distributed, so that one ethnic group usually emerged to rule the territory of others.”

VIETNAM WELCOMES THE US: TARGET BEIJING

3/6/2018

Why Vietnam welcomes America’s return
BY PHAM CHI DUNG
USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier's historic docking at Da Nang draws the one-time adversaries into a new and risky strategic embrace

Can India ‘make China behave itself’? New Delhi bolsters defense partnership with Vietnam
(Defense News) As it keeps a watchful eye on its neighbor China, India is further cementing defense ties with Vietnam for the joint production and transfer of technology of homemade weapon systems.

As it keeps a watchful eye on its neighbor China, India is further cementing defense ties with Vietnam for the joint production and transfer of technology of homemade weapon systems. - Defense News

EARNING THE ROCKIES & WHY GEOPOLITICS MATTERS

3/5/2018

Earning the Rockies
By Tyrell Mayfield, Strategy Bridge: “Regardless of what drove Americans west, it was the country’s geography—principally her river system—that facilitated the continental conquest and the consolidation of a nation-empire.”

Podcast: Geopolitics, Strategy, and Understanding the Future
The world isn’t getting any less complicated. Governments, international companies and globally engaged individuals face an ever-increasing mountain of information as they work to make sense of the news each day. The current international environment, however, doesn’t need to be difficult to understand if you know where to focus your energy.

MACKINDER'S CENTURY: EURASIA

3/2/2018

Mackinder’s Century
By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: “The struggle for Eurasia that Mackinder first wrote about more than a hundred years ago continues in the 21st century.”

Countries That Played Lesser Roles in WW I
By Brandon Christensen, RealClearHistory: “This year marks the centenary of the end of World War I, a war that was heralded by American President Woodrow Wilson as “the war to end all wars.” Of course that didn’t happen. Instead, three old dynasties collapsed (Hapsburg, Osman, and Romanov) and in their place sprung up a number of new states that were to be modeled after northwestern Europe’s nation-state.”

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/moscow-exploiting-israeli-syrian-clashes-for-regional-influence
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/01/europe/putin-russia-missile-intl/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/01/europe/putin-nuclear-missile-video-florida/index.html

U.S. STRATEGY FOR THE PHILIPPINES: THE LONG WAR

3/1/2018

U.S., PHILIPPINES:
What to Expect in the New American ‘War on Terror’ in the Philippines
By Conor McCormick-Cavanagh, Small Wars Journal: “The U.S. military resumed its counterterrorism mission in the Philippines in September 2017. This new operation comes on the heels of the rise of ISIS-linked groups in the southeast Asian nation...”

Special Operations for Strategic Effect:
Vietnamese Communist Employment of Commandos in War
By LTCOL N, The Cove: “2018 marks the fiftieth anniversary of the momentous Vietnamese Communist 1968 Tet Offensive that saw the political end of U.S. President Lyndon Johnson and the beginning of the US retreat from South East Asia."

ISIS fighters fleeing Syria and Iraq continue to trickle into the country and pose a growing jihadist threat throughout Southeast Asia.

Although the Philippine army managed to retake the southern island of Mindanao and suppress an ISIS-affiliated rebellion, the country’s disparate geography and the central government’s failure to provide key services to remote areas have permitted jihadists to mark the Philippines as a long-term launching pad for their regional operations.
Despite being ousted from the city of Marawi, ISIS aims to regroup in Mindanao and has its amplified its force size in recent months, representing an expanding security challenge confronting Philippine authorities and the broader region. Jihadist groups may attempt to appeal to other disenfranchised Islamic groups throughout Southeast Asia. In Myanmar, the Rohingya Muslim community continues to face persecution at the hands of the government, and in Indonesia, nearly 10 percent of the population would prefer an Islamic caliphate to their current democratic system.

Read the full brief, featuring expert commentary from:

MODERN DAY MACKINDER
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1 PAGE. HOW U.S. BEHIND CHINA.pdf
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10-ways-the-us-is-falling-behind-china-in-national-security.pdf
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IN DEFENSE OF DENIAL; NEW AIR DOCTRINES FOR WAR AGAINST CHINA
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reagan_future_risg-2019-essays.pdf
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GREAT POWER DOCUMENT.pdf
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GREAT POWER COMPETITION EXAMINED

Dr. Colin S. Gray

Summary of His Life's Work on Strategy.pdf
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GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS

ATLAS PRO YOUTUBE

DOUGLAS BARRIE: SPACE DEFENSE

THOMAS BUSSING: RAYTHEON MISSILE DEFENSE, STRATEGIEST

JAMES ACTON: NUCLEAR MISSILE DEFENSE

DR. MICHAEL PILLSBURY

HENRY ROWEN
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CHARLES WOLF JR.
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tutorials-from-a-sphinx.pdf
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ANDREW MASHALL 'YODA'
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AMERICA NEEDS NEW ALLIANCES

why_america_needs_new_alliances_-_wsj.pdf
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POLYBIUS & ANCIENT GRAND STRATEGY
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CENTER FOR POLITICAL & MILITARY POWER

SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA ANYMORE

SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA
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THE QURAN & MORAL STRATEGY FOR THE LONG WAR

WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS

WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS
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THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE PELOPONNESIAN WAR

WHAT HAPPENED DURING PELOPONNESIAN WAR
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THUCYDIDES TRAP IS GREAT POWER COMPETITION

THUCYDIDES TRAP = GREAT POWER COMPETITION
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WHAT THUCYDIDES TRAP GETS WRONG
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LANDMARK THUCYDIDES
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ARTHUR WALDRON NO THUCYDIDES TRAP

NO THUCYDIDES TRAP
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CENTER STRATEGIC, BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS: U.S. GRAND STRATEGY

DAVID P. GOLDMAN COLUMN ASIA TIMES

HOW BEST TO UNDERSTAND U.S. - CHINA RELATIONS

STRATEGY BRIDGE

Winning World War IV David P. Goldman.pdf
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THE NEW ASIAN OBSERVER

Tweets by WilliamHolland

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