When Do Leaders Change Course? Theories of Success and the American Withdrawal from Beirut, 1983-1984 by Alexandra T. Evans and A. Bradley Potter
WHEN LEADERS CHANGE COURSE: US EXIT FROM BERUIT, LIBYA'S CENTRAL BANK ON THE RUN AND MORE. .3/30/2019
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 Polybius, Applied History, and Grand Strategy in an Interstitial Age by Iskander Rehman
 Achieving Effective Leadership By Donald C. Bolduc, Small Wars Journal: "Difference-Makers possess a high emotional quotient and adaptability quotient and are good at reading people. There is a point in a leader’s career that a high emotional quotient and adaptability quotient becomes more important than your intelligence quotient. This is important because it requires a leader not to be the smartest person in room, but rather the most intuitive, understanding, and supportive person in the room." The Battle to Resource the U.S. National Defense Strategy By Erin Hurley, the interpreter: “While the need for a strategic rebalancing has been under discussion for many years, the NDS still provides the clearest articulation of U.S. objectives to date. However, the effort required to adequately resource the strategy cannot be underestimated." The History Of Nuclear Warfare And The Future Of Nuclear Energy via The Hoover CentennialThe first atomic strike in 1945 changed the world forever. Thomas Karako and Wes Rumbaugh write: The Missile Defense Review nominally widens the scope of missile defense policy from a focus on ballistic missiles to countering the full spectrum of missile threats. Yet these new policy and budget proposals remain remarkably consistent with the program of record that preexisted the National Defense Strategy. Apart from steps within the services for incremental improvements to air defenses and some studies on countering hypersonic glide vehicles, the focus remains on the limited ballistic missile threats posed by otherwise weak rogue regimes. – Center for Strategic and International Studies Chris Dougherty writes: The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) shifted the Department of Defense (DoD) away from a strategy focused on counterterrorism and deterring regional threats like Iran toward competing with, deterring, and, if necessary, defeating Chinese and Russian aggression. DoD is portraying the President’s Budget Request for Fiscal Year 2020, which is the first such request submitted since the release of the NDS, as a down payment on the long-term investments required to develop a future force that can execute this strategy. Given the price tag of $750 billion, Congress and the American people should, in the words of Ronald Reagan, trust DoD, but verify that this is money well spent on advancing the priorities of the NDS. – Center for a New American Security
 The US Army Is Trying to Bury the Lessons of the Iraq War // Frank Sobchak By scuttling plans to help its leaders understand what went wrong, the service is turning a blind eye to insights of enduring relevance. Searching For World Order: America, China, Russia, Iran with Stephen Kotkin via Foreign Policy Research InstituteThe Cold War of the 20th century seems clear cut, in retrospect: a galvanizing competition to rally free and market-oriented societies against a godless communist empire. But the 21st century has brought about new, more complicated conflicts. Historian Stephen Kotkin examines U.S. relations with China, Russia, and Iran from the 1970s to the present. Professor Kotkin won the seventeenth annual Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Book Award for Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929–1941 (Random House), the second volume of a definitive biography of Joseph Stalin. The first volume, Paradoxes of Power, was nominated for a Pulitzer. Conserving International Order
by Peter Berkowitz via Real Clear PoliticsIn the United States, conservatism and liberalism — often to the consternation of conservatives and liberals — are ineluctably intertwined. This turns out to be true of foreign affairs as well as of domestic affairs. Attention to this entwinement helps bring into focus the key question concerning the contemporary dispute about the post-World War II international order and the United States’ role in maintaining it: What policies best advance America’s interest in conserving freedom?  Hypersonic Weapons Are Coming–Pentagon Needs Defenses By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “Hypersonic weapons typically move at over five times the speed of sound, meaning faster than a mile per second. But it isn't just sheer speed that makes them different from existing weapons. Unlike long-range ballistic missile warheads that can approach 25 times the speed of sound as they reenter the atmosphere, emerging hypersonic weapons can glide and maneuver." Hypersonics Won’t Repeat Mistakes Of F-35 Pentagon’s New Ballistic Missile Interceptor Doesn’t Work, Suffers Years-Long Delay Tackling hypersonic threats: Offense or missile defense? (Breaking Defense) China. Hypersonic weapons. Say those three words, add a little artificial intelligence, and you can almost sum up why the Pentagon sees the Peoples Republic of China as a rising military threat. Army reboots cruise missile defense: IFPC & Iron Dome (Breaking Defense) The Army is effectively rebooting a key air and missile defense program, IFPC, to refocus it on higher-end threats like cruise missiles. US to start fabricating parts for ground-launched cruise missile systems (Reuters) The United States will begin “fabrication activities” on parts for ground-launched cruise missile systems, the Pentagon said on Monday, after Washington announced it plans to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. US ‘gets its ass handed to it’ in wargames: Here’s a $24 billion fix (Breaking Defense) The US keeps losing, hard, in simulated wars with Russia and China. Bases burn. Warships sink. But we could fix the problem for about $24 billion a year, one well-connected expert said, less than four percent of the Pentagon budget. The End of Great Power Peace By Hal Brands & Charles Edel, The National Interest: “As recently as 2010, Barack Obama could observe a strategic landscape where the “major powers are at peace.” Yet if great-power war has not returned, the era of deep great-power peace is over." American National Security and the Imperative Primacy of "Mind" By Prof. Louis René Beres, March 7, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: While President Trump intends to bolster US power through enhanced weapons systems and a rededication to belligerent nationalist foreign policies, authentic national security will require new emphases on intellect, or “mind.” This means focusing on new ways of thinking about world politics, especially much-needed escape plans from lethal cycles of competitive geopolitics. Washington must slow its still-growing inclination toward renewed arms racing and to other kinds of military escalation and shift its policy emphases to the greater utilities of intellect. Continue to full article -> Among the knowns:
Navy and Air Force force structure: The chief of naval operations created waves when he said last month that its 355-ship goal would be reevaluated (how many manned ships? How many unmanned?). The reshaping of that goal will change how the Navy spends vast amounts of its money. Also, we might finally get more details about the Air Force's goal to create 386 operational squadrons. Tackling Hypersonic Threats: Offense Or Missile Defense?
Offensive missiles are much cheaper than missile defenses. So is the best defense a good offense?
Technology, Uncertainty, and Future War
By Chris Tuck, Defence-In-Depth: “It would seem reasonable to assert that the role played by technology on future battlefields will depend to an important extent on the sorts of wars in which that technology will be used."
Introducing 'The Pacific Century': China, North Korea, and the US
John Yoo and Michael R. Auslin | "The Pacific Century" The future of China-US military relations Oriana Skylar Mastro | ChinaFile
The Pacific Century: Niall Ferguson On The Coming Cold War With China
with Michael R. Auslin, Niall Ferguson, John Yoo via The Pacific CenturyHoover fellow and historian Niall Ferguson on China, Trump, and Trade.
INDOPACOM: The ‘Quad’ might be shelved
(The Associated Press) A U.S. military commander suggested Thursday that a loose security grouping of his country, Japan, Australia and India, also known as the quad, may be shelved for now.
Introducing The Pacific Century: China, North Korea, And The US
with Michael R. Auslin, John Yoo via The Pacific CenturyThe voyage begins when you push away from the shore.
That Clausewitz-Is-Irrelevant 'Hot Take' Is Just Wrong
By Steve Leonard, Modern War Institute: “Every time I read another armchair strategist comment on the contemporary irrelevance of Clausewitz, I'm left shaking my head. In many ways, reading On War is like reading the Bible: literal interpretations of the text often lead readers to misinterpretations of the deeper, often more thought-provoking ideas underpinning the writing."
Scrutinize Strategic Assumptions on China
By Kevin Eyer, Proceedings: "History is replete with examples of nations suffering catastrophic military defeat to adversaries who were able to achieve surprise at the strategic level. In retrospect, it seems clear that all the critical warning signs were available in advance. In considering these events, the worthwhile question ultimately becomes this: Why was the essential, known information either ignored or discredited?"  Fusion Doctrine: One Year On By William McKeran, RUSI Journal: “The end of this month marks the first anniversary of the UK’s Fusion Doctrine. Launched as a central component of last year’s National Security and Capability Review (NSCR), Fusion Doctrine is Mark Sedwill’s National Security Council (NSC) initiative to fuse capabilities, across ‘economic, security, social and the rest’, to deliver strategy-led design of policy and planning." The U.S. Should Immediately Develop Intermediate-Range Missiles Bradley Bowman | CMPP Senior DirectorAndrew Gabel | Research Analyst Russian Statements on New Cruise Missile Indicate First Strike Intentions By Reuben F. Johnson, The Washington Free Beacon: "Putin highlighted the NPO Mashinostroyeniya 3M22 Tsirkon missile. It has a range of about 620 miles, which means it would have to be launched from a ship or submarine very close to the U.S. east or west coast if it were to be fired at targets in the continental United States, according to Russian weapons design specialists who spoke to the Washington Free Beacon." Avoiding the Politicization of Intelligence and Policy-Making By Col (Res.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen, March 4, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: If policy-making is to be honest and clean, intelligence must not be misused for political purposes. Intelligence input should be professional, independent, and courageous. Several cases in the US illustrate the complex interaction between leadership and the intelligence community and the temptation to manipulate intelligence to gain leverage in internal political disputes. Continue to full article -> The Surface Fleet, ASW and Defeating Hyper-Sonic Cruise Missiles: The Case of the Zumwalt Class By Ed Timperlake, SLDinfo: "A new player which could play a key role in a kill web approach could be the new Zumwalt class destroyer. There are three ships in this class, but rethinking the key role it could play in a kill web approach to the HSCM and other threats might lead to a rethink." Growing Missile Threats Demand Increased Investments in U.S. Missile Defense By Bradley Bowman & Andrew Gabel, FDD: "According to a press report last week, the Pentagon may request $500 million less than it did last year for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA)." U.S. Air Power: The Imperative For Modernization (Buy The F-35) By Lani Kass, Breaking Defense: "In 2006, a relatively obscure book caused a major stir among the U.S. Air Force leadership. Why Air Forces Fail, edited by Robin Higham and Stephen J. Harris, lays out the determinants of failure: deficiencies in the industrial base, misguided technology and tactical picks, inattention to logistics and neglect of training." Let’s Get Some Things Straight About Nuclear Weapons
By Luke O'Brien, Modern War Instiute: “With the second U.S.-North Korea summit having come and gone with no discernible sign of Pyongyang’s willingness to denuclearize, the topic of nuclear weapons remains at the forefront of discussions in national security and defense policy circles. And yet these discussions routinely treat nuclear weapons as a monolithic category of unthinkably destructive power, rather than acknowledging the graduated scale that extends all the way down to the tactical level." |
JAMES HOLMES:
CHINA vs. US
GREAT POWER COMPETITION EXAMINED
Dr. Colin S. Gray
GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS
ATLAS PRO YOUTUBE
DOUGLAS BARRIE: SPACE DEFENSE
THOMAS BUSSING: RAYTHEON MISSILE DEFENSE, STRATEGIEST
JAMES ACTON: NUCLEAR MISSILE DEFENSE
DR. MICHAEL PILLSBURY
AMERICA NEEDS NEW ALLIANCES
CENTER FOR POLITICAL & MILITARY POWER
SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA ANYMORE
THE QURAN & MORAL STRATEGY FOR THE LONG WAR
WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS
THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM
HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE PELOPONNESIAN WAR
THUCYDIDES TRAP IS GREAT POWER COMPETITION
ARTHUR WALDRON
NO THUCYDIDES TRAP
CENTER STRATEGIC, BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS: U.S. GRAND STRATEGY
DAVID P. GOLDMAN COLUMN ASIA TIMES
HOW BEST TO UNDERSTAND U.S. - CHINA RELATIONS
STRATEGY BRIDGE
THE NEW ASIAN OBSERVER
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