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geography & strategy 
global strike media

MARINE CORPS TAKE ON THE CHALLENGE OF CHINA & CHINA'S ASSESSMENT OF INDIA; HOW TO DEAL WITH INSIDER THREATS WHILE KILLING FOR THE REPUBLIC

3/27/2020

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The Case for Change
By David H. Berger, Marine Corps Gazette: “The United States Marine Corps I lead in 2020 finds itself, like the rest of the U.S. defense establishment, at a crossroads."

Still First to Fight? Shaping the 21st Century Marine Corps
By Frank G. Hoffman, FPRI: “Marine Force Design 2030The Marine Corps has earned its reputation in battle, but it has also excelled at anticipating demands for new capabilities to deal with the changing character of war.
  Ben Lowsen on Chinese PLA Ground Forces
(The Diplomat) Assessing the future trajectory of PLA ground forces development.
Patriot deployment to Iraq is helpful, but insufficient against Iran
(Defense News) The eviction of U.S. forces from Iraq represents a major strategic objective for the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Tehran has used its extraordinary influence in Baghdad to push for an American departure regardless of the interests of the Iraqi people.
A Chat with the Commandant: Gen. David H. Berger on the Marine Corps’ New Direction with Gen. David H. Berger and Ryan Evans
IN DEFENSE OF US GENERALSHIP
THE IDENTITY OF THE MARINE CORPS
China’s Strategic Assessment of India by Yun Sun
China's Defense Spending Is Larger Than It Looks
By Frederico Bartels, Defense One: “An early lesson emerging from China's handling of the COVID-19 emergency is that Beijing still manipulates data to fit its desired narrative."
Strategika Issue 63: Should The United States Leave The Middle East?
via Strategika
Strategika Issue 63 is now available online. Strategika is an online journal that analyzes ongoing issues of national security in light of conflicts of the past—the efforts of the Military History Working Group of historians
Leaving The Middle East: The Fallacy Of A False Dichotomy
by Admiral James O. Ellis Jr. via Strategika
In classical logic, the false dichotomy, or false dilemma, is defined as an argument where only two choices are presented yet more exist, or a spectrum of possible choices exists between two extremes. False dilemmas are usually characterized by “either this or that” language but can also be characterized by the omission of choices. This insidious tactic has the appearance of forming a logical argument, but under closer scrutiny it becomes evident that there are more possibilities than the either/or choice that is presented.
CSIS
https://www.wsj.com/articles/marines-plan-to-retool-to-meet-china-threat-11584897014
Mark F. Cancian writes: Gone are tanks and capabilities for sustained ground combat and counterinsurgency. Instead, the corps focuses on long-range and precision strike for a maritime campaign in the Western Pacific against China. But this new Marine Corps faces major risks if the future is different from that envisioned or if the new concepts for operations in a hostile environment prove more difficult to implement than the Marine Corps’ war games indicate. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
MH-47G Chinook Special Operations Helicopter
From Air Force-Technology: "The first new-build MH-47G helicopter was delivered to the USASOC in September 2014."

U.S., MIDDLE EAST:
CENTCOM Pushes a Dubious Carrier Strategy

By David Larter, Defense News: "U.S. Central Command is doubling down on a two-carrier strategy of questionable value and crippling consequences for Navy readiness."
U.S., INDO-PACIFIC:
Indo-Pacom Presses All Domain Ops; Sends Plan to Hill Soon

By Paul McLeary, Paul McLeary: “"For its backbone," Adm. Davidson said, "we need a joint -- joint -- network of training ranges capable of meeting the exercise, experimentation, and innovation objectives of the new warfighting concept.""
‘Behavioral Indicators’: Avoiding Self-Defeat in Countering Insider Threats
By Frank Tortorello, War Room: "In the counter-insider threat (CIT) world of the United States Department of Defense (DoD), the concept of a “behavioral indicator” is a primary basis for deciding whether an individual ought to be considered a threat to DoD resources."
What Compelled the Roman Way of Warfare? Killing for the Republic
By Rebecca Burgess, Strategy Bridge: "Any polity can field an army through compulsion or other violent means. What matters more is what makes your average person choose to stay on the battlefield."
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KIRKPATRICK, DOCTRINE AND STRATEGY

3/23/2020

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Geopolitical Jockeying in a Time of Pandemic
By Michael Auslin, Spectator: “It’s business as usual in Asia’s vital seas.
Smarter Ways to Improve Missile Defense Capability
By Patty-Jane Geller, RealClearDefense: "The January 7 Iranian missile attack against al-Asad air base in Iraq immediately led many to question why the base had no missile defenses in place."
Is a new Kirkpatrick Doctrine the answer? No doctrine before strategy
Giselle Donnelly et al. | The American Interest
The OODA Loop and the Half-Beat
By Alastair Luft, Strategy Bridge: "What does it mean to get inside an opponent’s OODA (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) loop?"
Time Slips By: The Tartar Steppe
By Christopher Johnson, Strategy Bridge: "The story’s protagonist, Giovanni Drogo, spends his days in the mountain outpost of Fort Bastiani overlooking the Tartar Steppe’s barren lands."

RIP the Carter Doctrine, 1980-2019
By Hal Brands, Steven A. Cook & Kenneth M. Pollack , Foreign Policy: "By most measures Jimmy Carter’s presidency was a lackluster one. Americans were experiencing malaise at home and a string of apparent defeats abroad, highlighted by the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan. Yet it was these twin crises that produced the Carter Doctrine, which has served the United States and its allies well ever since."

I Spent Decades as a Covert CIA Operative – This Is My New Mission
By Brad Johnson, American Military News: "Over the previous decades, I have observed the Intelligence Community turn away from its core responsibilities for the safety and security of all Americans to a far more political agenda. The intelligence community’s (IC) quadrennial report about global trends published in 2017 is a poster child example of what is wrong with intelligence today."
Fighting Corona Will Strain U.S. Military Capacity in the Indo-Pacific
By Ashley Townshend & Jim Golby, the interpreter: "With outbreaks in the ranks and resources directed home, America’s military commitments will be challenged."
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THE IDF'S NEW WAR MACHINE & IRAQI'S FINALLY GET US LED MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS

3/22/2020

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The IDF's Momentum Plan Aims to Create a New Type of War Machine
By Yaakov Lappin, March 22, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: After a year of planning, including a thorough and at times painful "self MRI scan," the IDF has set itself the target of creating a networked force that can destroy enemy capabilities in as little time and at as low a cost as possible. According to its new multi-year Momentum program, the IDF has changed its definition of victory, marking a significant and potentially extremely fruitful shift in military thinking.

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Attacks in Iraq underscore need for indirect fire protection capability
Bradley Bowman and Behnam Ben Taleblu — Defense News
The newly released U.N. Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran savaged Tehran’s failure to adhere to basic human rights norms. Javaid Rehman, the U.N. Rapporteur who released his report to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland,  on Monday, said: “Individuals who have called for the alleviation of economic hardships, and those who peacefully exercise their civil and political rights in defense of human rights have faced a harsh response. In particular, I remain deeply concerned at the arrest and imprisonment of human rights defenders and lawyers. Read More
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US PARTNERS WITH VIETNAM AGAINST THE PLA & EXAMINING PROBLEMS WITH RUSSIA'S SU FIGHTER JET

3/15/2020

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What Syria Ought to Teach America About Competition with Russia by Aaron Stein

Supporting Joint Warfighting with Mission-Level Simulations by Robert Richbourg, June Rodriguez, David M. Gohlich, and James N. Bexfield

Horns of a Dilemma: Allies and American Foreign Policy with Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Kimberly Field  
RUSSIA:
Russia’s Su-57 Stealth Fighter Has Problems

By Caleb Larson, The National Interest: "All the cards are stacked against the Su-57 — the price of oil is low, it’s engines are no better than its predecessors, and the current airframes it would replace are doing just fine."
https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/even-coronavirus-couldnt-stop-the-2nd-us-carrier-visit-to-vietnam/
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RUSSIAN-US RIVALRY OVER ETHNIC STRATAGEM ABROAD:  GROUND ZERO IS BLACK SEA & MOBILE NUCLEAR REACTORS

3/8/2020

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Russia’s Modernization Programs for Strategic Nuclear Bombers
By Mark B. Schneider, The Daily Beast:  Putin’s Russia has been modernizing its strategic nuclear bomber strike capability for two decades. Initially, this involved upgrading the Soviet legacy Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers plus a few newly produced Tu-160s with more advanced nuclear missiles. Not surprisingly, strategic nuclear upgrades were given first priority."

The Russian Understanding of War
By B.A. Friedman, Strategy Bridge: "The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the coercive annexation of the Crimea, and the ongoing support of proxy groups in Eastern Ukraine have induced seizures in western military thought, especially in the United States."
Heather A. Conley, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Matthew Melino write: The Kola Peninsula is the centerpiece of Russia’s military establishment in the western Arctic, and its air and maritime capabilities are essential to homeland defense, Arctic dominance, and global power projection capabilities. The concentration and range of  multi-domain assets— from SLBMs and ICBMs to EW—deployed on and around the Peninsula underscores the Arctic’s strategic value to Russian national interests. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​
RUSSIA:
Russia's Tu-160: The Biggest, Fastest and Heaviest Bomber Ever to Fly

By John Doe, CNN: “Fastest bomber ever built. The largest bomber ever built. Heaviest bomber ever built. All of these monikers refer to the Tupelov Tu-160 “White Swan” (NATO reporting name “Blackjack”), a legacy Soviet airframe that has of late gotten a new lease on life.
Clausewitzian Deep Tracks:
"Guide to Tactics, or the Theory of the Combat"

By Olivia Garard, Strategy Bridge: "On War is not the only text Carl von Clausewitz wrote. An undercited and underread text is “Guide to Tactics, Or the Theory of the Combat.”"
Twenty-five years ago, the Dayton Accords ended the fractious ethnic violence in the Balkans, Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II. Yet Bosnia and Herzegovina remains the most fragile country in southeastern Europe, argue Ivana Stradner and Max Frost in a RealClearWorld op-ed. Russia’s current strategy of using Bosnia’s religious and ethnic divisions to foment instability is working. To prevent a new and costly conflict in Bosnia, the West needs to confront Russia’s growing influence. Learn more here.
In recent weeks, Russia has absorbed two major setbacks: a falling out with Turkey over Syria and the onset of an oil price war with Saudi Arabia. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands notes that recent events remind us that President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy is transactional, shortsighted, and often counterproductive, similar to that of President Trump’s statecraft. Mortgaging the future for short-term gains isn’t a winning strategy, but it’s an approach that Putin and Trump seem to have in common. Continue here.
Post-Soleimani, Russia's Role Will Grow in Iran's Geopolitical Thinking
By Emil Avdaliani, March 13, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: US-Iran relations reached a nadir following the killing by US drone strike of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. As Iran’s isolation grows, its link to Russia is likely to strengthen. Moscow can use Iran’s geopolitical weakness to its own economic advantage by making large sales of Russian military hardware to the Islamic Republic and encouraging deeper cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and Tehran. At the same time, Russia will use the death of Soleimani to constrain Iranian troop activities on the Syrian battlefield and will generally limit Damascus’s dependence on Iran.

Continue to full article ->
Nuclear Threats Are Growing. How Should U.S. Missile Defenses Be Upgraded?
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "When future historians analyze U.S. security policies during the early decades of the 21st century, they may be hard-pressed to explain what policymakers were thinking."
Dragons and snakes stalk us
On American Grand Strategy
By Alex J. Beckstrand, Strategy Bridge: "... How are American strategists and foreign policy thinkers performing with regard to these grand strategy principles?"
Why We Need the W76-2 Low Yield Nuke
By Adam Lowther, Breaking Defense: "A low-yield submarine launched ballistic missile provides the United States with an independent credible capability the Russians actually fear."
RUSSIA:
Russia’s First Upgraded Borei-Class Ballistic Missile Sub

By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: “The nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) Knyaz Vladimir (Prince Vladimir), the Russian Navy’s first upgraded Project 955A Borei (A) II-class (“North Wind”) or Dolgorukiy-class boomer, will likely be commissioned in April or May of this year, according to a Russian defense industry source.
Pentagon Awards Contracts to Design Mobile Nuclear Reactor
By Aaron Mehta, Defense News: "The Pentagon on Monday issued three contracts to start design work on mobile, small nuclear reactors, as part of a two-step plan towards achieving nuclear power for American forces at home and abroad."
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Winter 2019 Issue
Black Sea conflicts: Militarization and peacebuilding
The sheer density of protracted conflicts in the Black Sea region makes it particularly exposed to the geopolitical ambitions of regional and global powers. The rapid militarization in Russia-controlled territories in recent years has only added fuel to the fire, dramatically increasing security concerns and underscoring the need for the West and its allies in the region to address the so-called frozen conflicts.
Read article
All eyes on Moscow as Erdogan and Putin meet for Syria talks
Gönül Tol

Running around in circles: How Saudi Arabia is losing its war in Yemen to Iran
Nadwa Al-Dawsari

The Shift to Majoritarian Politics and Sectarianism in India: Domestic and International Responses
Roshni Kapur, Nazneen Mohsina
How Iran’s regime set off a coronavirus bomb on its own economy
Saeed Ghasseminejad -- New York Post
The coronavirus has shattered any hope of the Iranian economy clawing out from under two years of deep recession. To the ruling regime’s chagrin, the virus has begun to adversely affect precisely those sectors that seemed poised for growth after weathering the return of US sanctions. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Iranian economy contracted 4.8 percent in 2018 and 9.5 percent in 2019. The closest thing to good news was that both the IMF and the World Bank forecasted zero growth in 2020. Read More

Sharpening the Iran File
Clifford D. May and Richard Goldberg — FDD's Foreign Podicy
The deal President Obama cut with Iran’s rulers provided them with billions of dollars and a “patient pathway” to the acquisition of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to targets anywhere on the planet. President Trump withdrew from that deal and, in its place, initiated a “maximum pressure” campaign of economic sanctions intended to change the regime’s behavior — if not change the regime itself. Listen Here

The UN’s Selective Outrage on Occupied Territories
Brenda Shaffer, Svante Cornell and Jonathan Schanzer — Real Clear World
Yesterday during remarks at the AIPAC annual conference, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo referred to the recent publication by the UN Human Rights Office of a database of companies that operate in the West Bank. Pompeo defined the report as “a real threat” that “only serves to facilitate the BDS movement and delegitimize Israel.” Pompeo declared that the United States will take actions on behalf of the “members of our business community that are being threatened by this release.” Read More
US-India helicopter deal deepens vital partnership
Bradley Bowman, Cleo  Paskal and Major Liane "Trixie" Zivitski — Defense News
Due to American and Indian negotiators’ failure to reach a trade agreement, some media reports panned President Donald Trump’s visit last week to India as more show than substance. Yet a closer look at the U.S.-India defense deals finalized during the trip shows that the visit facilitated deeper security cooperation with a critical U.S. partner in Asia. Washington and New Delhi used the presidential visit to announce India’s decision to purchase more than $3 billion in defense equipment. Read More
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CASPIAN REPORT:  THE MIDDLE EAST FOR 2020

3/3/2020

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