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 Policy Success vs. Intel Failure?
By Rose McDermott & Paul Mekkelson, War Room: “Failure is not just the result of one part of the equation. [Sometimes] you can give the right piece of intelligence and they won’t act on it.”
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 Strategic Dissonance? American Grand Strategy in the Immediate Aftermath of the Cold War By Jason Spencer, Strategy Bridge: “The failure of communism and the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union left the United States without a rival ideology or well-defined adversary against which to guide American grand strategy. To Produce Strategists, Focus on Staffing Senior Leaders by Paula Thornhill
 Can China stop wars once they start? Oriana Skylar Mastro | Lawfare Blog War termination is more likely when states are open to talks, favor de-escalation to bring their enemy to the negotiating table, and are open to third-party mediation. The likelihood of ending a war decreases when a belligerent chooses not to engage in diplomacy. Beijing has three tendencies that hinder timely war resolution. China’s political warfare – how vulnerable is India?
PRAKASH KATOCH China’s global political expansion is on the march. Mao Zedong’s Ministry of Foreign Liaison initiated the 1996-2001 Maoist insurgency in Nepal that set the stage for that country's communist takeover. Now, Nepalese communists are uniting to form the Himalayan nation's largest left-wing party – and Nepal is becoming a Chinese-backed control center for Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) as part of China's aim to limit India’s strategic space. In Pakistan, China has successfully targeted the power-wielding... CHINA'S STRATEGIC SHIFT IN SOUTH CHINA SEA & HOW TRUMP'S DEFENSE BUDGET CAN'T GET THE JOB DONE5/21/2018  China’s Strategic Strait in the South China Sea By Malcolm Davis, The Strategist (ASPI): “In a highly provocative move, China has deployed anti‑ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), as well as surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, to three disputed territories—Mischief Reef, Fiery Cross Reef and Subi Reef—in the South China Sea.” In a major new AEI report, Mackenzie Eaglen analyzes President Trump’s FY2019 budget and argues that when it comes to defense spending, the budget falls far short of expectations. The $700 billion in enacted defense spending for 2018 is a substantive increase over 2017 enacted and 2018 requested spending. However, the $716 billion topline for 2019 just keeps pace with inflation. Moreover, the budget request heavily favors future research and development for next-generation weapons systems at the expense of procuring existing technology to replace and repair aging equipment. Finally, short-term procurement has been traded off for long-term capability, meaning “competitors will realize that the Americans are weak today but will be strong tomorrow—and it is better to act now than later.” Access the full report.
 Options for U.S. Naval Force Posture in East Africa
By Matt Hein, Divergent Options: “Despite the incredible gains realized for maritime security in the region, there is a demand signal for deliberate planning to match appropriate naval assets with a growing range of regional needs.”  On Tactics By Erik Archer, Strategy Bridge: “Clausewitz, Sun Tzu, Thucydides, and their fellow strategic soothsayers, however, are of limited use to leaders charged with employing tactical formations.” What ‘Generation Kill’ Tells a French Soldier About U.S. Military Culture
By Jean Michelin, War on the Rocks: “One final observation about this show’s NCO-centric narrative culture is about the divide between NCOs and officers, who fight alongside one another on the field but have basically parallel career paths in the U.S. military...” RUSSIAN & U.S. NUCLEAR DOCTRINES EXAMINED & IN DEFENSE OF LOW YIELD NUCLEAR TACTICAL WEAPONS5/18/2018  Complecte Abyssum: New Trick for Old Dog of Deterrence By Kelly Jordan, War Room: “Traditional deterrence is transparent, certain, and rational. … The new approach to deterrence … embraces the chaos. The Necessary U.S. Response to Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine By Bradley A. Thayer, RealClearDefense: “While Chinese nuclear doctrine remains deliberately opaque—which is, in itself, worrisome and a threat to strategic stability—Russian doctrine and statements from officials have emphasized the need to maintain their nuclear arsenal and evinced a willingness to use nuclear weapons in a conflict.” Democrats Fight Pentagon’s Push for Battlefield Nukes By Joe Gould, Defense News: “House Democrats are fighting on multiple fronts to block the Trump administration from developing a new tactical nuclear weapon, and the debate threatens to turn into a partisan fight on the House floor.” Rep. Wittman Pushing Surface Warfare Community Reforms By Sam LaGrone, USNI News: “In the debate about how many and what type of weapons the United States should maintain, failure to understand and correctly adjust U.S. strategy to the real causes of war can have catastrophic effects.” In Defense of the Low Yield Nuclear Trident Missile By Matthew R. Costlow, RealClearDefense: “In the debate about how many and what type of weapons the United States should maintain, failure to understand and correctly adjust U.S. strategy to the real causes of war can have catastrophic effects.” Navy's Plans for Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons
By Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven: “The Pentagon has completed initial draft plans for several emerging low-yield sea-launched nuclear weapons intended to deter potential attackers and add new precision strike options to those currently possible with the existing arsenal.
What the North Koreans Told Me About Their Plans // Joel S. Wit I was one of a handful of former officials to meet with them when they were just developing their current strategy. Those talks offer the best information we have about how to achieve denuclearization.  Secretary of Defense James Mattis Presents 2018 National Defense Strategy At Hoover Institution featuring Peter M. Robinson, General Jim Mattis, Hoover Institution via Real Clear Politics In his first televised interview in almost a year, Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis sits down with Peter Robinson to discuss a wide range of issues facing the United States Armed Forces at home and across the globe. Earlier this year, Secretary Mattis published the National Defense Strategy, the first such document in a decade. Rediscovering Statecraft in a Changing Post-War Order by Michael J. Mazarr and Michael Kofman House to Probe China Threat
By Bill Gertz, The Washington Free Beacon: “China is seeking to dominate the international order through a combination of infrastructure investment in the developing world and a network of overseas port facilities and military bases.  The Future of War: A History By Tim Schultz, Strategy Bridge: “Historian of science Richard Rhodes tells how Niels Bohr viewed physics not in terms of universal principles but as “a way of asking questions about Nature.” Similarly, Lawrence Freedman portrays history as a way of asking questions about the Future, particularly the future of war. DARPA has a full team to grab drones mid-air (C4ISRNET) The Sierra Nevada Corporation has been selected for the final phase of the Defense Advanced Research Agency’s Gremlins program, which aims to launch and recover reusable drone swarms using manned airborne aircraft far outside of enemy ranges, according to a May 9 press release from the company. Nuclear Deterrence in a New Era: Applying 'Tailored Deterrence'
By Keith B. Payne, RealClearDefense: “Carl von Clausewitz writes that the nature of war has enduring continuities, but its characteristics change with different circumstances. Similarly, the fundamental nature of deterrence has endured for millennia...  China now reportedly has a full set of Russia's advanced S-400 air-defense missile system
(Business Insider) The first regimental set of the Russian-made advanced air-defense system known as the S-400 has arrived in China, a military-diplomatic source told Russia's official news agency Tass this week.  The Decline of U.S. Diplomatic Power By Sam Wilkins, Modern War Institute: “While Pompeo may see the Department of State’s doldrums as related solely to the management-style of his predecessor, Ronan Farrow argues persuasively in The War on Peace: The End of Diplomacy and the Decline of American Influence, that the department’s declining capacity and gradual exclusion from policy-making began long before Tillerson’s ill-fated “restructuring” or what he sees as the militaristic inclinations of the forty-fifth president.” North Korea and ‘The Libyan Model’
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): “In short, the Libyan model sets high standards in relation to the exposure of proliferation linkages; provision of access to sites, personnel and materials; relocation of key items; and acceptance of international standards on WMD. Can an agreement with Pyongyang meet those standards?  Mattis Defends Admin's Call for Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons
By John Grady, USNI News: “Defense Secretary James Mattis called Moscow's strategy of threatening to use low-yield nuclear weapons to get its way “bellicose and cavalier,” and he said the administration's plan to develop America's own low-yield nuclear weapons and deploy them on submarines would checkmate the Kremlin.” WHAT KEN BURNS MISSED IN VIETNAM & WHO HOLDS THE PROMISE FOR EURASIA, IT ISN'T RUSSIA ANYMORE5/5/2018  Popular Putin prepares for Cold War 2.0 (Asia Times) Immediately after his official inauguration on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to announce a new government. And a bombshell is in the making. The new cabinet is bound to be a Stavka: that is, a war cabinet.
Seoul’s Concessions Expose Limitations of Inter-Korean Summit
By Matthew Ha, The Hill: “The third concession Seoul made is ignoring the issue of North Korea’s non-nuclear weapons capabilities.  What Beijing is Building in the South China Sea
From Stratfor: “Since China began its extensive land reclamation program in the South China Sea in 2013, Beijing has focused on improving its presence and infrastructure at seven locations in the Spratly Island chain: Cuarteron Reef, Fiery Cross, Gaven, Hughes, Johnson, Mischief and Subi reefs." China: Magic Weapons and 'Plausible Deniability' By Graeme Smith, the interpreter: “Xi Jinping’s radical overhaul of the Chinese bureaucracy is not, as Xinhua would have you believe, just about streamlining government administration and reducing “red tape”. A host of state agencies that once stood between the public and the Chinese Communist Party have been done away with.”
Israel’s Intelligence Coup Accentuates Iran’s Nuclear Threat
By Tzvi Kahn, The Hill: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday disclosed that Israeli intelligence had obtained thousands of Iranian files confirming an inconvenient truth: Iran routinely lies when it claims that it has never possessed a nuclear weapons program.”
The Iranian regime is "humiliated" after a daring Mossad operation seized scores of secret documents, the former Pentagon official said.
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