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geography & strategy 
global strike media

THE MIDDLE KINGDOM RISES & RUSSIAN MODERNIZATION PLANS FOR ITS BEST FIGHTER JET

5/21/2020

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The Middle Kingdom Rises
By Brent Ramsey, RealClearDefense: "The People’s Republic of China (PRC) intends to become the world’s dominant military and economic power by mid-century and to soon supplant the U.S. as hegemon in the Indo-Pacific. Admiral Davidson, the Commander-in-Chief, USINDOPACOM stated in April 2018, “China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea (SCS) in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”"
CHINA:
It’s the Logistics, China

By Will Mackenzie, National Defense Magazine: "In protracted warfare, logistics and sustainment capabilities are as important as force composition, something China will struggle to mitigate."
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RUSSIA:
Moscow's Fifth-Generation Su-57 Fighter Modification Plans

By Roger McDermott , Eurasia Daily Monitor: “While Russia’s defense ministry aims to introduce 76 Su-57s by 2027, recent reporting suggests there may well be further modifications to the platform before production can finally commence.”
The Strategic Littoral Geography of Southeast Asia
By Pete McPhail, Arthur Speyer, Bret Rodgers, Steve Ostrosky, Jesse Burns & Dan Marquis, CIMSEC: "Military decision-makers instinctively think in geographic terms. Southeast Asia’s complex economic, military, political, legal, and environmental layers are best portrayed visually. By spatially portraying information, troops can work their way through geography to comprehend the interaction of these complex layers."
Nuclear-Armed Submarines and Strategic Stability in the Indo-Pacific
By Stephan Fruehling, The Daily Beast: “When The New York Times reported that Russia had likely deployed a nuclear-armed cruise missile in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear."

China and Japan’s Island Dispute
By William Choong, the interpreter: "The issue is not whether Beijing would want to challenge Tokyo over the islands. The question is when, and how?"
A Moment of Truth for U.S.-Iraq Relations
By John Hannah, RealClearDefense: “Today, the United States and Iraq will launch a strategic dialogue to discuss the future of their bilateral relationship. For Washington, the priority should be determining whether Iraq’s government remains a viable partner worthy of continued U.S. support."

U.S.-Iraq Strategic Dialogue and Foreign Influence in Iraq
By Ari Cicurel, RealClearDefense: “America and the new government in Baghdad now have an opportunity to turn the page in favor of U.S. and Iraqi interests and curtail the influence of Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow."

The Gravity of China’s Space Base in Argentina
By Erin Watson-Lynn, the interpreter: "What the South American country stands to gain from the deal is something of a mystery."
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CONFRONTING CHINA IN MEXICO

5/15/2020

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China: What We Must Do, What We Must Not Do
by Gordon G. Chang  
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The Strategic Competition We’ve Neglected:
Confronting China in Mexico

By Lindsay Gabow, RealClearDefense: "With the U.S. long focused on terrorism, China’s footprint in Mexico has grown considerably. Wielding soft-power influence, China has established its ability to undermine U.S. interests across our Southwest border."
China's Tech Theft a Bigger Challenge Than That of Soviets
By Robert Farley, The Diplomat: "In the context of ongoing discussions of Chinese technology theft, it's worth revisiting how the Soviet Union sought to acquire U.S. technology during the Cold War."
 
Japan Could Carry the Day in a U.S.-China Conflict
By Bertil Lintner, Asia Times: "Defense-related spending in Japan has traditionally aimed chiefly to shield against neighboring North Korea's nuclear threat. But the new ramped up spending is more clearly pointed towards an expansionist and increasingly assertive China, according to Japanese military insiders."
The Chinese View of Western-Russia Competition
By Emil Avdaliani, May 14, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The ongoing competition between Russia and the West is likely to continue unabated for years to come. Beijing will endeavor to widen that gulf by supporting Moscow in its efforts to implement China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East and Eurasia.

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US TO NUCLEAR CHINA:  DECOUPLING BEGINS

5/4/2020

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Staring Into the Abyss of US-China Decoupling
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, June 5, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel resides at the cusp of the widening US-Chinese divide, as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent visit to Israel attests. Pompeo’s visit was for the express purpose of reminding Jerusalem that its dealings with Beijing jeopardize its relationship with Washington.

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Trump’s New China strategy Must Focus on International Organizations
Richard Goldberg | Senior Advisor
The Marine Corps is starting to form and experiment with the littoral regiment at the heart of its modern-day island-hopping strategy, the head of Marine Corps combat development told USNI News. – USNI News ​
HOOVER STRATEGIKA:  CHINA 
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Great New Developments on the U.S.-China Decoupling Front  by Alan Tonelson
Faced with the erosion of civil-military relations, it is time to reexamine the personnel policy of "veterans' preference," argue Mackenzie Eaglen and Frances Burke for War on the Rocks. As an increasing number of recently retired military personnel fill the civil service roles that are designed to keep civilians involved in US national security structures, this disrupts the US national security ecosystem and the tenuous balance of civil-military relations. Protecting the role of civilians in the Department of Defense should be paramount for the Pentagon and lawmakers alike. 
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Learn more here.
Benjamin Jensen and Matthew Van Echo write: The idea was not to go to war with China, America’s third-largest trading partner. The idea was to explore coercion and setting conditions in a theater of operation in a manner that provided multiple credible and flexible deterrence and military response options to national decision-makers. As a result, students gained a better understanding of new concepts like the competition continuum and were able to evaluate them in relation to a larger body of literature on coercion, military power, and crisis management. – War on the Rocks
Oriana Skylar Mastro took to the Strength Through Peace blog to argue that the world’s focus is rightly on managing the COVID-19 pandemic and reducing the loss of life. But the challenges of addressing China’s rise have not dissipated — instead, they are increasing — and the United States should focus on potential contingencies in the South China Sea if it is to avoid them. 
Continue here.
Net Assessment: Big Trouble in a Little China Strategy? with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-and-chinas-missiles-are-become-bigger-threat-heres-how-improve-us-missile-defenses
China’s Ambiguous Missile Strategy Is Risky
By P.W. Singer & Ma Xiu, Popular Science: "The risk with this strategy is that such ambiguity substantially increases the danger of an accidental nuclear exchange due to mistaken assumptions."
Is China in Breach of Its Nuclear-Testing Commitments?
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): "In last month’s executive summary of the 2020 edition of the U.S. State Department’s annual report on global arms-control compliance, a ‘concern’ is raised about possible low-level Chinese nuclear testing at the Lop Nur test site in Xinjiang province."
Daniel Tobin writes: The ambitions articulated by Xi Jinping at the 19th Party Congress underscore that Washington and its allies face a global, strategic rivalry driven as much by ideology and values embodied in competing domestic governance systems as by perceptions of changing power dynamics. While this rivalry differs in many respects from the Cold War, one of the most important differences is that it is a competition to define the rules and norms that will govern an integrated, deeply connected world rather than a world divided into competing camps. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Caution: China’s Nuclear Strategy May Be ‘Nuclear Thoughtlessness’
By Paul Bracken, The Hill: “China’s nuclear strategy is more complex than most public discussions or academic studies suggest."

Deterrence in the Pacific: The Chinese Nuclear Dimension
By Robbin Laird, SLD.info: "“Rocking the boat” in Asia will look much different in a “heavy” nuclear world than it did when China was barely a nuclear weapon state.”"
China’s strategic interest in the Arctic goes beyond economics
(Defense News) In its Arctic policy published in 2018, China proclaimed itself as a “near-Arctic state,” a label that has since invited controversy.
Securing America From China’s Predatory Economic Tactics
Begins With Protecting Our Businesses

By Mark Green, RealClearDefense: “China’s actions to cover up their handling of the outbreak have shed new light on China’s hegemonic intentions."
Can a broke America fight a Cold War with China?
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
The coronavirus has united Americans against Beijing’s aggressions, but it will also devastate the Pentagon budget.
CHINA:
Chinese Navy Submarines Protected By Underground Tunnels

By H I Sutton, Forbes: "China is a maritime nation with over 9,000 miles of coastline, dotted with ports. Compared to most other countries, it has a large number of naval bases."
​Special Report: U.S. rearms to nullify China's missile supremacy
(Reuters) As Washington and Beijing trade barbs over the coronavirus pandemic, a longer-term struggle between the two Pacific powers is at a turning point, as the United States rolls out new weapons and strategy in a bid to close a wide missile gap with China.
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Pandemic Sets the Stage for a Western-Asian Ideological Contest
By Emil Avdaliani, May 3, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As the shock from the coronavirus pandemic decreases over the coming months, both China and the West are likely to record successes in the economic and political realms. The crisis has set the stage for an ideological struggle between the West and China that will play a crucial role in determining the destiny of Eurasia throughout this decade and the next.

Continue to full article ->
Trump’s nuclear policy has failed
(Defense One) Recognizing that blunders and bad ideas have undermined stability and security is the first step toward recovery.
Is Xi Jinping weaker than we think?
Gary J. Schmitt and Minxin Pei | The American Interest
What if military recruiting could screen for wash-outs?
(Military Times) It takes tens of thousands of dollars to get a new service member through recruiting and initial training, and costs the services hundreds of millions a year when new troops are discharged from the military before the end of their first contracts.
Rep. Gallagher: The ‘bad day for The PLA Navy’
(Breaking Defense) The Navy’s decision to tap Wisconsin’s Fincantieri Marinette Marine to build the first 10 of a new class of guided missile frigates last month could be the first real step toward a faster, more numerous and more lethal fleet.
Chinese Navy expanding base in Africa, satellite images confirm
(War Is Boring) The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has stepped up its operations at a base in Africa, as evidenced by satellite imagery.
China ‘won’t win more respect’ if it expands nuclear arsenal following calls from national media, analyst says
(South China Morning Post) Calls for Beijing to expand its nuclear arsenal reflect its rocky relations with Washington, and any reckless moves could damage the nation’s credibility, according to an analyst.
Build a fleet, not a constituency
(Defense News) The U.S. Navy’s long-awaited award of a contract to design and build a new class of frigates has brought with it calls to dramatically expand the planned class of 20 ships to a fleet of 70 or more hulls.
Does a US presidential military experience gap really matter?
(The Diplomat) What are the strategic consequences of leadership that lacks direct military experience?
James Jay Carafano and Riley Walters write: Unless the Quad economies can focus on structural reforms focused on economic freedom as they strive to get their economies back to work, they can expect a struggle to get back to just average economic growth—and even that will not be enough to truly recover. Working together, however, they can better find the strength to do what’s necessary to get their economies moving again. – The Daily Signal
Michael O’Hanlon writes: If we do not listen to that message, the entire domestic basis for a strong United States and an engaged foreign policy leadership role could evaporate. Domestic policy has turned to foreign policy. Both the Pentagon and the candidates should take heed. As we emerge from the emergency response to coronavirus in the months to come, this more than any other is the debate we need to have as a country.- The Hill
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Bryan Clark and Dan Patt write: The U.S. military needs new approaches to warfighting if it is going to deter aggression and counter gray-zone tactics from great power and regional competitors. Technology proliferation and post-pandemic budget and experimentation constraints will prevent staying ahead through superior equipment and tactics alone. DoD will need to start enabling what American military leaders have always said is their greatest resource: the creativity and adaptability of their warfighters. – Defense One
How to Decouple Key Supply Chains from China
Keep Expectations Modest for Iraq’s New Government by Douglas A. Ollivant

Pulling Troops Out of Africa Could Mean Another Endless War by Herman J. Cohen
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