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geography & strategy 
global strike media

DOES XI JINPING HAVE A GRAND STRATEGY & EXAMINING THE LOST ART OF OPERATIONAL CRAFT

10/28/2019

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The Importance of the Operational Level:
The Ludendorff Offensives of 1918

By Lorris Beverelli, Strategy Bridge: "Each level of war is essential to achieve success, and are all equally important. The Ludendorff Offensives of 1918 provide an illustration of why the operational level is essential."

Jungle Mission
By Nathaniel Moir, War Room: "The idea that going native entails the violent pathology of the Kurtz’s stands in stark contrast with René Riesen’s efforts to support the Bahnar Tribe during the First Indochina War."
Partnerships Are at the Core of Modern Deterrence
By Giedrimas Jeglinskas, RUSI: "How does a state achieve effective deterrence? Lithuania provides an example"
Make China Great Again: Xi’s Truly Grand Strategy by Andrew Erickson
U.S. Military Readiness ‘Marginal’
By Mike Glenn, The Washington Times: "In their “2020 Index of U.S. Military Strength,” Heritage Foundation analysts rate each of the armed services as only “marginal.” They also paint a chilling picture about the rapid military modernization of Russia and China."
The U.S. Army Will Experience Battlefield Surprise--
Here’s How to Prepare Leaders and Organizations to Overcome It

By Jim Greer, Modern War Institute: "On October 6, 1973 the Israel Defense Forces were surprised when the Egyptian and Syrian armed forces commenced what would become known to Israelis as the Yom Kippur War and to Arabs as the October War. The true surprise, though, was not when and how the war commenced."

Success Requires Self Direction
By Albert H. Konetzni Jr., Proceedings: "To continuously improve, organizations and individuals need a game plan."
Global Risks 2035 Update: Decline or New Renaissance?
By Mathew J. Burrows, Atlantic Council: "We must recognize that the old historical rhythm that laid the foundations of the Western liberal order has come to an end."

U.S. Deterrence in the Middle East Is Collapsing
By John Hannah, Foreign Policy: “The withdrawal from Syria is part of a broader pattern of weakness, especially in response to Iran."
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CHINA'S GREAT DELUSION CONTINUES

10/23/2019

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Strategists in China make a habit of engrossing themselves in history. Betimes ideology tinges the findings they coax from the historical record, as one might expect from citizens of a communist regime—or indeed from human beings, full stop. Yet politics seldom invalidates their analyses of workmanlike topics in tactics, operations, or strategy. These, after all, involve the mechanics of how the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will help Chinese Communist Party (CCP) magnates fulfill their political purposes. Inquiries into martial subjects are mostly apolitical since they cover the how, not the why, and thus are safe for free-range thinkers to explore. For example, PLA analysts seemingly have little trouble setting aside their natural skepticism toward Alfred Thayer Mahan and other Western strategic theorists. They afford Mahan & Co. respect and draw guidance from them despite their entanglement with the imperial legacy that so affronts patriotic Chinese.  . . . 
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/america-smashed-imperial-japans-navy-leyte-gulf-what-lessons-can-china-learn-89531
China’s Own ‘Great Delusion’
By Elliott Zaagman, the interpreter: "China has turned American hubris on its head – overselling realism and nationalism while ignoring liberalism."

National Security Perils of China's Belt and Road Policy
By Douglas J. Feith & Shaul Chorev, National Institute for Public Policy: "Perhaps the greatest strategic challenge facing the United States now is how to regulate its business and other relations with China in light of President Xi’s aggressive aims and his determination to “fuse” China’s commercial and military interests."
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WHY AMERICA LOSES WARS

10/23/2019

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Why America Loses Wars
By Adam Wunische, Strategy Bridge: "Reorganizing the military for great power competition and then selecting yet another conflict that requires counterinsurgency and stability operations will leave warfighters unprepared and dangerously exposed, as has happened repeatedly in the 70 years since World War II. Poor political decisions have the potential to undermine any advantageous reorganizing of the military ..."
Kurds Betrayal
By Gil Barndollar, RealClearDefense: "Though Trump appears to have left the Kurds in a particularly peremptory and callous manner, the real issue is the way in which America habitually acquires, arms, and then abandons partners of convenience"

Reimagining World Politics: The Longer View of an American 'Victory'
By Louis René Beres, Small Wars Journal: "Everyone knows that the world-situation in which we live is not a final one."-- Karl Jaspers, Man in the Modern Age (1951); At first glance, the main argument here may appear counter-intuitive. It suggests that the United States should become less concerned about achieving any future military victories than optimizing its overall national security. Such a sensible argument would already have appeared orthodox to Carl von Clausewitz." 

Military Involvement in Post-Conflict Peace Negotiations
By Miranda Melcher, Defence-in-Depth: " There is a wealth of literature on the best methods to achieve buy-in among key stakeholders in post-civil conflict peace negotiations. To date, however, little academic research has focused specifically on the role that military officers can play in peace negotiations."
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A CHINESE-RUSSIAN ALLIANCE BEGINNING & US DEVELOPMENT IN AIR-TO-AIR MISSILES WITH CHINA

10/22/2019

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The Russo-Chinese Alliance Emerges
By Stephen Blank, The Hill: "While the media remain preoccupied with the Syria crisis and the impeachment inquiry, equally if not more consequential events are happening elsewhere that deserve America's urgent attention."

Russian Top Brass Gain Greater Political Weight
By Pavel K. Baev, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “The Grom 2019 exercise of Russian strategic forces last week (October 15–17) received limited media attention, which was overwhelmed by the escalation of the Syrian calamity (see EDM, October 17) and the continuation of the Brexit drama. But this year’s Grom maneuvers were, in fact, unprecedented in both their scale and intensity."
 
Russia as an Asia Pacific Power:
The Perspective of Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan

By Robbin Laird, SLDinfo: "In the shifting narrative of Vladimir Putin as the leader of Russia, over time he has downplayed Russia’s modernization engaged with the West to shaping a Euro-Asian perspective and promoting the concept of Russia as a unique Eur-Asian power."
Will America's Next Air-to-Air Missile Match Up to China's?
By Douglas Barrie, Defense One: "The U.S. military, and its Air Force in particular, invests in and places considerable store by superior technology to prevail against peer rivals. The service is also disinclined to allow its near-allies to field capabilities it does not also have access to."
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HARD CHOICES FOR THE ARMY, AMERICA IN AFGHANISTAN & THE LOST ART OF EXITING A WAR

10/21/2019

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The Hard Choices That Will Define the Army of Tomorrow (and Beyond)
By John Amble, Modern War Institute: "Building a force of a particular size and with a particular capability mix is already challenging—recruitment goals can be hard to meet and getting the most out of a bureaucratic acquisition system is itself a challenge. But it’s made even more so when these challenges are overlaid with the broader problem of forecasting what the future battlefield will look like so that end strength and capabilities match the demands that a coming conflict will make."

America in Afghanistan
By Carter Malkasian, Strategy Bridge: "Dorani brings an Afghan perspective to the debates that have played out in Washington. The major question he explores is: How did U.S. policy fail in stabilizing Afghanistan?"

The Lost Art of Exiting a War
By Adam Wunische, War on the Rocks: "The best way to ensure a speedy exit from a war is to have never intervened in the first place. The second-best option is to have an exit strategy"
Unstable at Speed: Hypersonics and Arms Control
By Douglas Barrie, IISS:  "China’s DF-17 is likely to be the first hypersonic boost-glide system to enter military service, but other hypersonic weapons will soon follow, both unpowered and powered. If the proliferation of such systems and its impact are to be managed, arms-control measures will be needed. However, demanding enough within a stable security architecture, arms control is far more difficult when the supporting structures are already collapsing, as shown by the failure of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty; arguably it also becomes the more valuable."

Responding to North Vietnam’s 1973 Violations of the Paris Peace Accords
By Timothy Heck, Divergent Options: "This article summarizes some of the options presented by U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, and his Washington Special Actions Group (WSAG), to U.S. President Richard Nixon to address North Vietnamese violations of the Paris Peace Accords in the spring of 1973."
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mackinder's nightmare & EURASIA'S GREAT GAME

10/11/2019

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Claude Berube writes: It will be the human element — knowledge, analytical capability, and ingenuity in the naval intelligence community — that guides us to victory, defeat, or stalemate as it has since wars were first fought. That is why we must reassess how time is best spent for analysts, what extraneous collateral functions that have no inherent war-fighting purpose can be eliminated, and how to re-invest in education and training that is geared toward war-fighting.  We must recognize the rules of the naval intelligence game. – War on the Rocks
Incumbent Raytheon will build the U.S. Army’s new missile defense radar to replace the Patriot air and missile defense system’s current radar as part of the service’s future Integrated Air and Missile Defense System. – Defense News
​U.S. Army Receives First Delivery of Israeli-Made Active Protection System
Bradley Bowman and Andrew Gabel 
– FDD Policy Brief
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Mackinder’s nightmare: Part 1 
Colin Dueck | Foreign Policy Research Institute 

Mackinder’s nightmare: Part 2 
Colin Dueck | Foreign Policy Research Institute
Sovereignty is no solution 
Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest
Eurasia's Great Game: India, Japan and Europe Play to Putin's Needs
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, October 11, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Eurasia’s Great Game is anything but simple and straightforward. A burgeoning alliance between China and Russia that at least for now is relegating potential differences between the two powers to the sidelines has sparked a complex geopolitical dance of its own.

Continue to full article ->
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WHEN THE OCEANS BECOME TRANSPARENT; NEW INTERCEPTORS & SPACE BASED HYPERSONICS

10/10/2019

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If the Oceans Become Transparent
By Zachary Kallenborn, Proceedings: "Imagine a world in which the oceans hide nothing. Cheap sensors are deployed all across and below the water. Swarms of unmanned undersea, surface, and aerial vehicles rove in search of adversaries.” ​
Inside the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s Secret Next Generation Interceptor
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "Earlier this year, the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency determined that a planned upgrade to the nation’s defense against long-range North Korean missiles wasn’t going to work."

The Data Challenge of Space-Based Hypersonics Defense
By Nathan Strout, C4ISRNET: “Managing data is the biggest challenge to developing a new space-based sensor layer that would help detect hypersonic weapons."
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CHINESE PARADE DEMONSTRATES EROSION OF US SUPREMACY & RUSSIA TESTS THE S500 IN SYRIA

10/4/2019

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Did China Just Announce End of U.S. Primacy in the Pacific?
By Scott Ritter, The American Conservative: "For decades, the United States has taken China's ballistic missile capability for granted, assessing it as a low-capability force with limited regional impact and virtually no strategic value. But on October 1, during a massive military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC), Beijing put the U.S., and the world, on notice that this assessment was no longer valid."
  • Bloomberg’s Leonid Bershidsky: Putin’s Russia Is a Middle Eastern country
Why China’s Big Military Parade Is Nothing to Be Afraid Of
By Craig Hooper, Forbes: "Excessive Western pearl-clutching over new Chinese military technology is exactly what the Chinese regime wanted"
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Chinese Military Parade Highlights Erosion of U.S. Military Supremacy
Bradley Bowman | CMPP Senior DirectorAndrew Gabel | Research Analyst
Russia tests new S-500 missile system in Syria 
Russia has tested its new S-500 surface-to-air/anti-ballistic missile system in Syria, Russian media reported today. The pro-government Izvestia newspaper reported the tests discovered "some issues with certain elements of the S-500," but they were "quickly fixed" and the missile defense system is now seen by Russia's Defense Ministry as fully functional. The ministry had earlier said the system wouldn't be tested until 2020.
The S-500 Prometey is believed to have a range of 600 kilometers (373 miles). Unofficial reports also said that it will be capable of targeting up to 10 ballistic missiles at once. Russia considers the S-500 to be a rival to the US-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD).

Read More  
teletrader.com
China unveils drones, missiles and hypersonic glide vehicle at military parade
(Defense News) China has showcased new types of missiles and unmanned platforms for the first time at a military parade in its capital on Oct. 1 to mark the 70th anniversary of its founding.
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