Russia Is Fueling China’s Nuclear Weapons Expansion

Wagner Group And The IRGC: The Rise Of Self-Sustaining Military Proxies
The Black Sea Strategic Triangle In 2023 And Beyond
John Taylor: Where Should The Fed Funds Rate Be To Combat Inflation?
Persuasion, Coercion, and Compellence
China Has Three Roads to Taiwan: The US Must Block Them All
​Nine Recommendations to Presidential Candidates on China Policy

China’s brokerage of the agreement to restore ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a major turning point for the Middle East. But, Beijing may find its regional relations undermined if implementation of the deal fails

U.S., Iran May Be Negotiating Payoff for American Hostages

• The National Interest’s Leon Hadar: China wants to bring peace to the Middle East? Good luck with that
  

Deterring a Chinese Military Attack on Taiwan

Discussing China's Three Roads to Taking Taiwan

According to Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan, China has three roads to victory over Taiwan, and the US must act urgently to obstruct all of them. 

Zach Cooper on A New China Playbook

Annika Ganzeveld, Zachary Coles, Amin Soltani, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, and Frederick W. Kagan write: Iranian officials have also emphasized the importance of indoctrinating and ideologizing the population, frequently calling on educational institutions and the media to “explain the issues related to hijab and chastity.” These policies do not address Iranian grievances about the government’s inability to stabilize the Iranian economy, disregard for the rights of women and religious minorities, and crackdown on civil liberties such as freedom of speech. – Institute for the Study of War

Brandon Patterson and Dino Bozonelos write: Thus, however iniquitous they believed it to be, British leaders concluded that a relatively intact Turkish empire was vital to holding back a Russian drive toward the straits, and ultimately the Middle East. Liberalism was forced to compromise given the geopolitical realities. Britain’s defense of Turkey did not imply any degree of ideological approbation or compatibility of domestic institutions, nor did it require an alliance—the arrangement was pragmatic and conditional. The United States will be obliged to make similar calculations moving forward, wherein Turkey is neither entirely adversarial nor an ally, but something in between. – The National interest

How Iran’s Regime Is Threatened by Its Clerics

The Axis of Tyrannies

Deal Or No Deal

It Is Time For A New Hezbollah Policy

Who Is Poisoning Iranian Schoolgirls?

A Year After Germany’s “Sea Change,” Policy Change Remains Elusive,​ by George Bogden

Iran, China and the Panama Canal: Is the US Being Encircled?  by Lawrence A. Franklin 

The Reagan Institute released its first National Security Innovation Base Report Card report card, 
​The report card's advice for the Pentagon:

• "Foster stronger relationships with the private investment community.
• "Scale up workforce development programs to increase domestic STEM output and skilled trades.
• "Establish additional mechanisms to increase the foreign talent pipeline for critical national security technologies.
• "Create additional technology-focused international alliances and partnerships.
• "Make bigger, bolder, more flexible investments in new capabilities."

"Big Tech” Is a Big Deal in the Strategic Competition with China
Klon Kitchen | AEIdeas
Technology has always been a key variable in geostrategic change. Klon Kitchen notes that to fully leverage the private sector’s capability, the US must deliberately address three key challenges to the American science and technology enterprise. First, America must confront Chinese technological theft and aggression. Second, the US must help allies understand that a strategy of “regulate first and ask questions later” will hurt—not help—the West and risk ceding the advantage to Beijing. Finally, facts and geopolitical realities must constrain domestic debates about technology and innovation. Ultimately, Western tech companies and the US government must recognize that the long-term interests of both are better served through national security partnerships. Continue here.>>

https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan

How China Understands and Assesses Military Balance
China sees itself as the weaker side in the overall military balance with the United States, largely because it has made only limited progress in the key areas that will define future warfare. Those include informatization and system-of-systems–based operations.
 Read more »

The Three Vladimir Putins

Protests across Iran as schoolgirl poisonings spread nationwide  
The chain of suspected poisoning attacks on girls' schools continued unabated, prompting furious Iranians to chant against authorities who are scrambling for answers. 

The Importance Of Putting Aside The Personal In US-Saudi Relations

Our Christophobic Ruling Caste

The Black Sea

IAEA chief heads to Tehran, as Iran's 83.7% enrichment triggers alarm  

Turkey's economy grows 5.6% in 2022, but labor’s income share shrinks

Saudi Arabia moves forward with bids for nuclear plant
 The kingdom has received bids to build its first nuclear power plant and South Korea is reportedly expressing interest.

CHINA LASERS HAWAII

Tehran Regime Targets U.S. Homeland -- Kill Lists and Kidnappings  by Benjamin Weinthal
Fox News
March 1, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64206/tehran-regime-targets-us-homeland-kill-lists

AFGHAN POLICY TRAP Read more »
​The U.S. 'Policy Trap' in Afghanistan: A Look Back

Ambassador L. Paul Bremer III on Iraq: Twenty Years After the Fall of Saddam Hussein
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
February 24, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64205/ambassador-l-paul-bremer-iii-on-iraq-twenty-years

Rethinking Assumptions About China
By Robert Peters, RealClearDefense: "If the war in Ukraine is teaching the United States anything, it is that great powers can unexpectedly suffer battlefield defeat because expectations and assumptions about their military prowess are outdated."

John Roy Price’s memoir of welfare policy under Richard Nixon is a time capsule of policy and politics.
READ MORE ›

In our eagerness to appreciate sexual difference, it is important not to reduce women to something less than what they are.
READ MORE ›

INDIA'S WAR-FIGHTING BUDGET SUBPAR

The Era of Coalitions: The Shifting Nature of Alignments in Asia
Zack Cooper | ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute

Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa
Emily Estelle Perez | American Enterprise Institute

Putting Slack and Margin Back in the Military
Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas

Matching the Defense Budget to Strategy
Elaine McCusker and Emily Coletta | AEIdeas

The Military Should Turn Its Network Innovation Upside Down
John G. Ferrari | Military Times

Can the Mujahedin-E-Khalq Survive Its Leader’s Death?
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com

• Africa and the West:  A Work in Progress by Stephen Blank

Navy Readies New Tools, Training After Connecticut Submarine Collision
By Megan Eckstein, Defense News: “The U.S. Navy submarine force is nearly done implementing reforms following an October 2021 undersea collision of attack submarine Connecticut."

How to Keep War With China From Being a Pick-Up Game
By Bryan Clark, Defense One:"INDOPACOM needs a joint force headquarters now, not when crisis arrives."

Improving Foreign Policy Outcomes Requires Investment in Alternative Perspectives
By Heather Levy, Strategy Bridge: "The failure of national security planners to adequately incorporate multiple perspectives into United States foreign policy has proven costly both financially and in terms of failure to achieve policy objectives."

How to Rebalance the Navy’s Strategic Culture
By Scott Mobley, Proceedings: "To be most effective, the U.S. Navy’s culture must equally leverage three pillars: operational, technocentric, and strategy-centric influences."

Assessing the National Security Strategy, with Christopher Preble, Melanie Marlow, and Zack Cooper

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/01/the-u-s-marine-corps-now-an-access-denial-force-to-fight-china/

The Pentagon’s new defense strategy is out. Now the real work begins, experts say
​The new National Defense Strategy keeps the Pentagon’s focus locked on China
​Three key takeaways from the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy
Tear up the National Defense Strategy and start again, recognizing reality

AMAZON  US NAVAL WAR STRATEGY

DoD’s Kendall Says ‘Revolving Door’ Is Too Thick
By Tiny Tim, The War Zone: “The Defense Department’s top procurement official is taking aim at watchdog-type laws that are put in place to discourage corruption in government.”

The Evolution of America’s China Strategy
By Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): ". . . The Pentagon thus refers to China as its ‘pacing challenge’."

CCP Constitutional Change Strengthens Xi’s Power but Avoids Total Personality Cult
By Masaaki Yatsuzuka, The Strategist (ASPI): "Why was the party chairmanship not restored?"

The Case for Getting Rid of the National Security Strategy, by Justin Logan and Benjamin Friedman

Keeping Civil-Military Relations Civil, with Risa Brooks, Alice Hunt Friend, and Ronald Krebs

STRATEGIKA

FDD IRAN Read Full Monograph

CFR  AFRICA IN TRANSITION

Don’t Drive Away Smart Students,

Beheading the Hydra
By Seth Cropsey, RealClearDefense: "The U.S.’ Brittle Logistical System is a Crucial Vulnerability in Great-Power War."

Strategika Issue 82: Tactical Nuclear Weapons
via Strategika

Deterrence, Air Defense, And Munitions Production In A New Missile Age
by Thomas Karako via Strategika

Egypt’s inflation increases into 2023

It's Not Easy Being a Women (Or a Girl) in Turkey by Burak Bekdil
Gatestone Institute
December 30, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63995/it-not-easy-being-a-women-or-a-girl-in-turkey

WAR GAME CHINA  Bloomberg CNN CSIS DefenseScoop Taiwan News

Sudan Moves Forward on Forming Civilian Government.  Sudanese political parties on Monday began final talks on a deal to transition to a civilian government.  Negotiating parties agreed to an outline deal last month, but critics said it was unrepresentative.  Other remaining issues include the dissolving of institutions established by ousted leader Omar al-Bashir, transitional justice, security reform, and ongoing resistance from former rebel leaders.  Reuters UN News
 
China Accelerating Military Ties with Africa.  China is boosting its security influence in Africa, according to data from the RAND corporation.  The data shows that China is accelerating arms transfers to African countries and increasing the deployment of Chinese private military and security contractors (PMSCs) to protect African infrastructure.  The data also shows that most African countries that received Chinese military support have also received Russian security aid.  Of note is the fact that most Chinese PMSCs in Africa mainly provide defensive services, namely for Chinese industrial projects.  South China Morning Post  ​

Africa's Sahel Region: Enter Russia's Wagner Group to Make It Worse

China Cements its Position in the Middle East

GPF  CHINA & THE PHILIPPINES

The Cockroach and the Sparrow
By Matthew Omolesky, The American Spectator: "A fable about Russian dictators offers hope against hope about the end of the country’s dynasty of despotism."

Don’t Fight the Last War

U.S., CHINA:
China’s Nukes Use U.S. Technology
By Bill Gertz, The Washington Times: “Pentagon says growing stockpile built through legal, illegal means.”

Breaking China’s Hold
​China’s Threat to Global Democracy

Don’t Drag the Military into Politics
Kori Schake | War on the Rocks
Americans’ respect for their military is plummeting. Kori Schake argues that if America wants to retain a military that brings all parts of the citizenry together into an effective fighting force, it should better insulate the military from being a pawn in political disputes. This will require more discipline from military leaders and greater recognition by politicians of the damage they are doing to US national security by castigating the professionalism and nonpartisan commitment of America’s armed forces. Military leaders should stick to the core functions of the profession and master saying, “That’s a more appropriate question for the secretary of defense.” Politicians should stop hiding behind uniforms when enacting unpopular policies. Politicizing the military will make it weaker—not stronger. Learn more here. >>

The Armed Conflict Survey 2022: Americas Regional Analysis
The fast-growing business of the synthetic drug fentanyl, largely controlled by Mexican drug-trafficking organisations, is drawing international attention to the Americas.
Addressing geopolitical drivers and security spillovers, The Armed Conflict Survey 2022 provides an assessment of the fentanyl emergency and what it is likely to mean for US counter-narcotics as the opioid crisis in North America worsens.
READ MORE

​Congress Missed an Opportunity to Ask the Right Questions on Yemen
Katherine Zimmerman | Hill
The House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and Global Counterterrorism recently held a hearing on the situation in Yemen. Katherine Zimmerman argues that while the hearing was valuable, Congress missed the opportunity to ask the right questions. Yemen’s location means the US has a permanent interest in ensuring that the situation does not threaten maritime security in the gulf, and the Biden administration has leaned heavily into diplomacy to help end Yemen’s war. Congress should have taken this opportunity to ask what leverage the US holds over the Houthis in negotiations, who is responsible for negotiating the release of US citizens, what actions the US can take to prevent human rights violations, and how USAID is balancing emergency aid to Yemen. Continue here. >>

Military Expenditure: Transparency, Defence Inflation and Purchasing Power Parity
Set amidst the context of an increasingly challenging global economic outlook and a more fraught security environment following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, this paper discusses recent developments in military expenditure and the factors that must be considered in order to make accurate assessments and comparisons.
READ MORE

Japan's transformational national-security documents
In releasing three historic strategy documents in December, Japan announced that it will follow a new approach to national security in the coming years defined by higher defence spending, the acquisition of counterstrike missile capabilities and a push to overcome the civil-military divide that has long undermined its defence sector.
READ MORE

China Pursuing Counter to US JADC2.  China is reportedly developing a military operational concept called Multi-Domain Precision Warfare (MDPW) to counter the Pentagon’s Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) concept, according to US defense officials.  MDPW reportedly aims to replicate JADC2’s coordination of command and control, communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance to identify and exploit vulnerabilities in enemy systems.  Officials add that the Chinese military is looking at expanding systems destruction warfare, where warfare is not solely focused on military forces but also targets underlying systems and infrastructure.  C4ISRNET

A New Cyber Strategy To Restore Civil-Military Normalcy
By Marc Losito, RealClearDefense: “Milton Friedman, the late-Nobel laureate, used the analogy of "a fool in the shower" to describe the scalding consequence of policy overcorrection.”

These Are The Top 7 Times The Military Went Woke In 2022
By Micaela Burrow, Daily Caller: “The Department of Defense (DOD) doubled down on “woke” initiatives in 2022 amid rising criticism from experts and politicians that the focus on progressive issues could undercut military readiness.”

The 1973 Arab-Israeli War:
Insights for Multi-Domain Operations
By Nathan Jennings, AUSA: “The United States Army is embarking on a new era as it adopts Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) as its central warfighting concept.”

Trends That Will Define the Coming Years
The world is always changing, but some changes are more important than others. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely be remembered as the start of a new era in geoeconomics. The uncertainty and tit-for-tat measures kicked off an energy crisis. And the war renewed focus on the growing divide between the West and a nascent revisionist bloc led by China and Russia. It is difficult to see a path back to the status quo ante bellum, but several major trends that will define the next decade have become clear. They include deglobalization, stagflation and the bursting of the tech bubble.

Netanyahu Signals Israel Will Press Syria Strikes

This Backgrounder unpacks the contentious U.S.-China trade relationship.

American Defense Priorities After Ukraine, by Frank Hoffman

U.S., India must seek common ground to combat Pak-backed terror

Iran’s Protesters Want Regime Change

Forbes Business Aerospace & Defense If Russia Is This Bad At Conventional Warfare,
What Does That Tell Us About Its Nuclear Posture?
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "Russia’s military performance in Ukraine has proven to be, in the words of the Economist’s year-end edition, “spectacularly incompetent.”"

The United States is engaged in a halfhearted tech war with China.
READ MORE 

Underneath all their discussion of the common good, Catholic integralists have a repugnant view of political authority.
READ MORE ›

Is Japan’s New National Security Strategy a Paradigm Shift?

Can US Corporate Debt Markets Weather a Recession?

China: Dismal Trade Data Hints at Downturn

Taliban meets with Hamas during high-level talks in Turkey

Jonathan Spyer: Is Erdoğan's Turkey Aiding in a Jihadist Takeover of Northwest Syria?
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
November 4, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63776/jonathan-spyer-is-erdogan-turkey-aiding-in

Iran’s terror drone pipeline to Moscow

The Dangerous Nexus: Russia and Iran's Mullahs

The Marine Corps Is Facing a Crisis That Will Shape Its Future Identity
By Steve Balestrieri, Sandboxx News: "The face of war is changing rapidly, and the Marine Corps is facing a crisis regarding where it fits in the U.S.’s future national defense strategy . . ."

Biden’s Nuclear Posture Review Is Too Timid for 2022
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): “Nuclear weapons are serious capabilities, and declaratory policies are serious commitments."

Big Defense Is The Closest Thing We Have To A Real Industrial Policy
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "The question U.S. policymakers may need to face in the years ahead is how to preserve a robust rate of innovation . . ."

Confucian Natural Law?
How compatible are East and West?
READ MORE ›

The Return of Cartography, by Nicholas Danforth
The Path Ahead in Turkey’s Upcoming Electoral Campaign, by James Ryan
Debating the National Defense Strategy, with Christopher Preble, Zack Cooper, and Melanie Marlowe

1945 MACKENZIE EAGLEN, ON US SUPERPOWER BUGETS & CONSTRAINTS

How China Views It: Sino-American Technology Competition
Dan Blumenthal, Gregory Graff, and Christian Curriden | American Enterprise Institute

​China May Never Become a Superpower
By Doug Bandow, 1945: “The CCP overestimates its position vis-à-vis the West, which could bring China grief."

How Do You Actually Measure the Success of a Fighter Program?
By Alex Hollings, Sandboxx News: "Right now, the United States has at least two next-generation fighter programs in development . . ."

STRATEGIC COMMENTS:  US NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW 

After the Next War
By Seth Cropsey, RealClearDefense: "The U.S. must Grasp the Reality of Sustained Competition"

Russia’s Defense Industry Is in Serious Trouble Due to Sanctions
By Robert Farley, 1945: “Despite claims of self-sufficiency, it turns out that Russian industry needs Western components and Western support."

If You Think the Deficit Is Bad Now, It Will Soon Get Worse
Mark J. Warshawsky | Hill
In July, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the federal government budget deficit would be 3.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023. The author's rough calculation is that the 2023 deficit will come in at 6.4 percent of GDP, or nearly 70 percent higher than the CBO projection.
Full Story

ISIS Terrorists Living in Turkey - with Yazidi Captives

How China Views It: Sino-American Technology Competition
 Dan Blumenthal, Gregory Graff, and Christian Curriden | October 2022

• These two reports are based on research projects from the Hertog Foundation National Security & Sino-American Technology Competition fellowship, led by AEI Senior Fellow Dan Blumenthal.

• The first report examines China’s strategic approach to technology competition and how the shortcomings of current US export control policies have allowed Chinese companies to exploit loopholes and other weaknesses in the system.

• The second report identifies the theoretical roots of China’s systems confrontation doctrine and how the concept shapes the People’s Liberation Army’s views on the role of new technologies in warfare.

READ MORE

China, Unquarantined
Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Eberstadt | American Enterprise Institute | February 16, 2021

China, Russia Deepen Partnership on Satellite Navigation

Redefining Irregular Warfare:
Legitimacy, Coercion, and Power
By David H. Ucko & Thomas A. Marks, Modern War Institute: "The Department of Defense is working on a new definition of irregular warfare, and the stakes are surprisingly high."

Deterrence Via Mutual Vulnerability? Why Not Now
By Keith B. Payne, National Institute for Public Policy: “The Defense Department’s top procurement official is taking aim at watchdog-type laws that are put in place to discourage corruption in government.”

China: Xi, the Party, and the Endless Struggle
By Jennifer Hsu, the interpreter: "China’s growth model, one funded by debt, is unsustainable."

China Is Winning the Economic Race with the US – The Consequences Will Be Profound

The Pentagon Gets the Better Part of a Trillion Dollars a Year. Why Isn’t That Enough?
Mackenzie Eaglen | Defense One
Despite an annual budget over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, money is always tight at the Defense Department. Mackenzie Eaglen points out that about three-quarters of the defense budget is preordained: spending that is essentially on autopilot. This leaves little flexibility for any meaningful change or truly strategic choices. The only branch with the power to break up this calcified system is one that has long been complicit in its sedimentation: Congress must take the reins and steer the Defense Department into immediately advancing the National Defense Strategy by recognizing that the military needs procurement the most. Read More >>

Is the Pentagon at Risk of Running Out of Weapons?
John G. Ferrari | Dispatch
The General Accountability Office (GAO) recently released a report concluding that the Department of Defense lacks the direction and insight to mitigate industrial-base risk. In other words, the Pentagon will likely run out of bullets and weapons in a protracted, multifront war. John G. Ferrari argues that the answer to rebuilding our arsenal is not consolidating policies, as the GAO report suggests. Rather, we should fund procurement, stop “contracting-to-monopoly,” eliminate red tape, focus on eliminating China from our supply chains, and invest in the American workforce. Learn more here >>

• "U.S. Standards Body Reaches Critical Milestone for Mitigating the Quantum Threat, But More Work Is Needed," Dr. Georgianna Shea and Matthew Brockie, FDD Policy Brief
  

Relative Weakness: 
The Secret to Understanding Irregular Warfare
By Douglas A. Borer & Shannon C. Houck, Small Wars Journal: “Irregular warfare is how the Taliban drove the Western Alliance out of Afghanistan, and it is how Ukraine is presently checking Russia’s invasion of its territory."

Taiwan's Message for China: We Have a Nuke-Like Weapon  by Gordon G. Chang

The US Military Needs an On-Time Defense Budget

Deterrence is Not Rocket Science: 
It is More Difficult
By Keith B. Payne, National Institute for Public Policy: “In a recent published article, two physicists offered remarks that illustrate a fundamental basis for the stark differences reflected in the public debate about deterrence.”

Getting Ready for a Long War: Why a US-China Fight in the Western Pacific Won’t End Quickly

Deterring Coercion and Conflict Across the Taiwan Strait

Asian Allies and Partners in a Taiwan Contingency: What Should the United States Expect?

Conventional Deterrence and Taiwan’s Independence: Necessary Investments

Without Maximum Pressure Biden Has Little Leverage Over Khamenei

WAR ON THE ROCKS PODCAST 

Strict Oversight Needed for New U.S-Backed Counter-China Infrastructure Initiative

Self-Inflicted Wounds
The Fed’s past complacency undermines its present effort to fight inflation.

Erdoğan Purges Turkish Intel to Hide Corrupt Tehran Ties  by Abdullah Bozkurt
Nordic Monitor
August 15, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63455/erdogan-purges-turkish-intel-to-hide-corrupt

Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missile: Badly Needed for Deterrence

The friends of our enemies

Arabs to Biden: Shut Down Iran's 'Expansionist Project'

Defending Taiwan offers a road map for US policy to deter and defend against Chinese aggression toward Taiwan.
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Is Trump’s acquittal compared to Nixon’s forced resignation merely the result of the different media environment?
READ MORE ›

Battle of the Dirigistes
In France, the far Left and far Right are divided by their attitudes on immigration and national identity, but on economic matters they are not terribly far apart.

​Iran Nuclear Talks in Vienna Won’t Result in a Better Deal

HOOVER:  THE MIDDLE EAST & THE ISLAMIC WORLD STILL CALLS THE WEST

THE CHINA RECKONING

The Pentagon Is in Desperate Need of an Intervention from the Top by Dustin Walker

Putin's No Chess Master // Eliot A. Cohen, The Atlantic: Some believe Putin has not only Ukraine, but the whole West, exactly where he wants it. A more balanced consideration is in order.

Iran to remain a key partner for Ethiopia in the Tigray conflict
Ethiopia is Iran’s gateway to the Horn of Africa and the broader East Africa region. By helping Ethiopia in its ongoing conflict with the rebel Tigray Defense Forces, Iran is preserving its so-called strategic depth in the region to bolster its influence.
Read article
Autumn 2021 Issue

Hoover Institution Publishes New Papers About China's "Sharp Power" On The Continent Of Africa

Administration Urges Congress to Fund Semiconductor Production Amid New Data on Shortage

Central planning and China’s productivity challenge​

The Federal Reserve cannot fight inflation alone

Who killed the economy?

We Mustn’t Cede the Middle East to China
By Harry Halem & Daniel J. Samet, RealClearDefense: “The Biden administration's emphasis on the Sino-American rivalry in general and the Asian theater, in particular, is correct. However, his administration has especially foundered in the Middle East, which will damage America’s China strategy more than any other mistake."

Beijing’s grand strategy: A Sino-centric order
Dan Blumenthal | Jewish Policy Center
While China poses a formidable challenge to US global leadership, the Chinese Communist Party’s near-constant political purges, darker economic prospects, and demographic problems mean the US still has a chance to deny the hegemony over Asia sought by Xi Jinping and build an affirmative alternative to Sino-centrality.
Full Story

The economic and security implications of China’s activities in the South China Sea

Pacific Century: What's In Store For Asia In 2022?
interview with Michael R. Auslin, Derek Mitchell, Dan Twining via The Pacific Century
Predictions for the Indo-Pacific by the heads of the International Republic Institute and the National Democratic Institute.

Wrapping up 2021 and looking forward to 2022 with the Breaking Defense team

Islamist Terrorism Flourishing Under the Taliban

China’s Sharp Economic Slowdown Threatens to Constrain Xi in 2022

As China Pursues Nuclear Arms Buildup, Biden Opts for Debate at United NationsBy BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | January 3, 2022
https://www.nysun.com/national/as-china-pursues-nuclear-arms-buildup-biden-opts/91855/

The most important number for China policy
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
The $780 billion increase in American spending on Chinese stocks and bonds since 2016 represents a miserable policy failure that dwarfs the impact of the US-China trade war.
Full Story

​Beijing's top arms controller insists China is not "dramatically expanding" its nuclear capabilities, despite recent reporting that suggests otherwise, including from the Pentagon in November (PDF). The remarks come from China's Fu Cong, who is in charge of the Foreign Ministry's arms control department.

​Iran’s reserve of last resort: Uncovering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces order of battle

The empires strike back  
​America is threatened by neo-imperialists

A Strategy to Counter Chinese Influence Operations
By Connor Fiddler, RealClearDefense: “Only recently has the U.S. government started to dedicate more resources to countering FIO. However, the response has been insufficient.” ​

Xi and Putin’s Summit for Autocracy

Jihadist attacks flow into littoral West Africa

CHINA, RUSSIA:
Here Are the Hypersonic Weapons Russia and China Have in Service
By Jane Doe, The Diplomat: “Currently, only two nations possess operational hypersonic weapons, China and Russia.”

Snag in the $23 Billion Arms Deal with the UAE Spells a Dilemma for Biden,” by Benny Avni

Guelzo’s biography of Lee is ultimately a defense of the modern nation-state that emerged in the nineteenth century and replaced the federal union.
READ MORE ›

Explainer: The Islamic State In 2021
by Cole Bunzel via Wilson Center
What is the status of ISIS in the Middle East and North Africa at the end of 2021? Which branches or affiliates were the most active? Which the least active? What kind of attacks or activities has ISIS been carrying out? How have trendlines changed? And why?

What To Expect When You’re Expecting A National Defense Strategy
Thomas Spoehr, Bradley Bowman, Bryan Clark and Mackenzie Eaglen — War on the Rocks
In July, Rear Adm. Mike Studeman, director of intelligence for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned that “it’s only a matter of time” until China resorts to military force and suggested that U.S. forces are not ready for that “very bad day.” Meanwhile, Russia continues to maneuver its forces aggressively on NATO’s eastern flank, Iran inches toward a nuclear weapons capability, North Korea builds its missile arsenal, and the Taliban has taken control of Afghanistan. The new National Defense Strategy that the Biden administration is writing should reckon with these challenges and the ramifications of rapidly expanding global threats. Read more

The Taliban Is Using the Doha Accord to Protect Al-Qaeda
​That's one of many problems with ‘over the horizon’ counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan

Will Sistani be the Last Legend? The Challenge of Succession and the Future of the Marj’aiyyah  Summer 2021 Issue

Since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Sistani in Najaf has become a focal point not only for Shi’a in Iraq, but for the entire region. Sistani is now 91 years old and the question of succession is a central one — one that concerns not only Shi’a Muslims, but the wider Middle East as well. This paper aims to shed light on the future of the religious authority in the Shi’a world based on the unavoidable change after Sistani.
Read paper

Beyond AUKUS: 5 practical recommendation
Zack Cooper | AEIdeas
Since the Australia–United Kingdom–United States (AUKUS) trilateral security pact was announced, much attention has focused on French frustration with the deal, rather than on the next steps to build on the agreement. Zack Cooper provides five practical recommendations to capitalize on AUKUS's momentum: The US and Australia should move expeditiously to set up a trilateral forum with Indonesia, they should speed up the delivery of new capabilities, and the US should consider sharing B-21 bombers with Australia. The partners should codevelop ground-based missiles with Japan. Lastly, the Joe Biden administration should bring the US back to the trade table. Read More >>

10 years after ‘the pivot’: Still America’s Pacific century?
 Zack Cooper and Adam P. Liff | October 2021

• Asia’s significance to the United States has never been greater, but the past decade has seen a recurring gap between US rhetoric about the region’s importance and actual strategy, policies, budgets, and attention.
  
  
• To get America back on track in Asia, the Biden administration and Congress must prioritize three urgent course corrections: (1) re-centering US strategy on the region as a whole, rather than on China; (2) embracing a positive regional economic agenda; and (3) significantly increasing diplomatic and military resources devoted to the region.
• READ MORE

Beyond AUKUS: 5 practical recommendations

Hits & Misses In Biden’s Interim National Security Guidance
​“Seemingly gone is the naivety of the Obama era” about Russia and China, writes the Heritage Foundation’s Tom Spoehr in this op-ed. But the retired three-star general still sees some worrying woolly-mindedness.

Crisis, Resilience, and American Conservatism
By Peter Berkowitz via RealClearPolitics
​Peter Berkowitz provides an analysis of the appeal of the American conservative movement since the end of the Second World War. He writes that its values of conserving individual freedom, limited government, and traditional morality are ones that large portions of ordinary voters have historically embraced. He argues that while conservatives need to meet the demands of the current moment, including the genuine concerns of working-class Americans hit hard by globalization, the movement should seek primarily to preserve the constitutional order, which is grounded in the principles of unalienable rights and limited government, and requires a citizenry that is educated in the rights and responsibilities of freedom.

The Iranian Nuclear Deal Needs to Be Fixed and Rewritten, Not Just Reviewed
By Russell Berman via The Hill

Policy Briefs: Moderate Islam
Featuring Fouad Ajami via PolicyEd
​Although some say that there is no moderate form of Islam, Fouad Ajami believed in the potential to wrest Islam away from extremism. While radical Islamists have tried to hijack the faith, others, including Saudi jurists, are beginning to understand that the drift toward radicalism is a menace to Muslims around the world.

AFTER THE ARAB SPRING 
Hero of the Month: M. Zuhdi Jasser  by Grégoire Canlorbe 

Is the U.S. Arming an Adversary, China, Intent on Overpowering Us?  by Peter Schweizer 

U.S. Policy Toward Asia
mentioning Michael R. Auslin via Foreign Policy Research Institute
How has U.S. Policy toward Asia come together one month into the Biden Administration? Will President Biden have success rebuilding relationships with the U.S.’s Asian partners, both economically and diplomatically? How will he respond to the recent coup in Myanmar? Join FPRI’s Jaques deLisle and Michael Auslin as they break down U.S. economic ties in Asia, recent events unfolding in the region, and the Biden administration’s attempts to rebuild relations across the Asia-Pacific.

Chinese Technology Platforms Operating In The United States
by Gary P. Corn, Jennifer Daskal, Jack Goldsmith, John C. "Chris" Inglis, Paul Rosenzweig, Samm Sacks, Bruce Schneier, Alex Stamos, Vincent Stewart via Hoover Institution Press
The Trump administration took various steps to effectively ban TikTok, WeChat, and other Chinese-owned apps from operating in the United States, at least in their current forms. The primary justification for doing so was national security. Yet the presence of these apps and related internet platforms presents a range of risks not traditionally associated with national security, including data privacy, freedom of speech, and economic competitiveness, and potential responses raise multiple considerations. This report offers a framework for both assessing and responding to the challenges of Chinese-owned platforms operating in the United States.

The World Goes On While America Sleeps
by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness
While we are busy devouring each other, China is smiling that once-feared American running-dog capitalists have become laughable Keystone Cops.

Why Are Al Qaeda Leaders In Iran?
by Cole Bunzel via Foreign Affairs
What a Prisoner Exchange Reveals About an Unlikely Relationship

Xi Jinping’s Rise Is No Historical Accident
​How 'The Longer Telegram' misunderstands the Chinese Communist Party's quest for power

Washington Cannot Rely on Iran’s Alleged Anti-Nuclear Fatwa

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/424870/it-time-navy-reassess-importance-aircraft-carrier-george-will

https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/01/the-u-s-navy-americas-first-best-strategy

US NAVAL SUPREMACY FOR ASIA

How to Bargain with the Taliban with Barnett Rubin

Defense Strategy and the Empire State of Mind: How Preparing for the Best Can Leave Washington Vulnerable to the Rest by Evan Montgomery

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/is-the-biden-administration-ready-to-fight-chinas-u-n-influence/

THE WEICHERT REPORT

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/why-china-won%E2%80%99t-forget-its-fight-against-imperial-japan-176696

THE NAVAL DIPLOMAT

Russia: Putin Shoots Himself in the Foot
by Judith Bergman  

  The next steps for the Pentagon's AI Hub
(Defense One) Six ways the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center can accelerate the military’s use of AI.

  Defending forward to confront China’s military aims
(RealClear Defense ) The passage of the fiscal year 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) marked the moment the budget finally caught up to a grim geostrategic reality: The capabilities gap between the U.S. and Chinese militaries is shrinking, and fast.

Deciphering Erdogan's seeming pro-West shift in foreign policy
(Al-Monitor) Ankara’s abrupt desire to mend fences with the West appears driven by domestic calculations, but even if its intentions are genuine, it lacks the institutional capacity to pull off such a U-turn.

China may seek to close nuclear gap after US and Russia agree to extend New START treaty
(South China Morning Post) The extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the United States and Russia to 2026 may not only prevent an out-of-control arms race but also gives China an additional five-year buffer period.
 
US admiral calls China’s anti-ship ballistic missiles a ‘destabilising effort’ that may not win a war
(South China Morning Post) A senior US military official said China was “pouring a lot of money” into anti-ship ballistic missiles but it may not help the People’s Liberation Army win a conflict between the two nations.

What’s in a Name? Reimagining Irregular Warfare Activities for Competition by Kevin Bilms

JADC2 May Be Built To Fight The Wrong War
​To compete with China, DoD needs to focus on spoiling Chinese military and paramilitary success at lower levels on the escalation ladder. This is more closely aligned with maneuver warfare concepts like DARPA’s Mosaic Warfare.

Congress, It’s Time For Two-Year Budget Deal: Eaglen At AEI
It will take time for the Biden administration to build its national security and defense strategies. In the absence of a new defense strategy, the most logical route for Congress would be to plan a two-year budget deal that buys back readiness and investment lost to the Budget Control Act.

Biden's Approach to the Indo-Pacific
By Emil Avdaliani, January 13, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: While the new US president is likely to reverse many of Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions, one area likely to remain untouched is the US approach to the Indo-Pacific region. Joe Biden will push for a reinvigorated set of alliances and building of confidence in US power among China’s neighbors. The nascent Trumpian Indo-Pacific strategy will take final shape under Biden.
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​Sudanese-Ethiopian relations are deteriorating. Sudanese armed forces have clashed with Ethiopian soldiers and armed Ethiopian farmers, known as shifta, along the Sudanese-Ethiopian border since December. Sudanese forces took advantage of the distraction created by the Tigray conflict in northern Ethiopia to seize disputed territory in the Fashqa triangle in early December.
READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
Civil war is breaking out in Africa’s second largest country 

Claiming to Counter Russia and Iran, Turkey Partners with Both  by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
January 3, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/61920/turkey-partners-with-russia-and-iran

The Six Blind Men and the Elephant: Differing Views on the U.S. Defense Budget by Thomas Spoehr

Indian Army Pivots Toward China with Ajai Shukla
Ethiopian-Sudanese Border Flares Up with Alex de Waal