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geography & strategy 
global strike media

CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF SINO-US RELATIONS

10/2/2020

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China’s aggressive tactics aim to bolster the Communist Party’s legitimacy
Dan Blumenthal and Jakob Urda | The National Interest
China has faced two disasters in 2020 — the coronavirus and historic floods — which exposed its fragilities and created internal unrest. Its response to both was the same: escalating aggression against its neighbors.

 Full Story
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Flawed Assumptions and the Need for a
Radical Shift in the Next National Security Strategy

By Michael N. Gonzalez, Strategy Bridge: "If 2020 has taught the citizens of the United States anything, it is that the security we take for granted is not assured."
Thinking Strategically About Sino-American Crisis Management Mechanisms 
by Jacob Stokes and Zack Cooper
Jude Blanchette writes: He has emphasized adhering to problem orientation, telling us to aim at the problem and proceed from it, regard the discovery of contradictions and understanding and resolving problems as the breakthrough points in our work, go to the root of Xinjiang’s social stability problems, and emphasize aligning problem-solving efforts with the actual situation by solving the problems that present themselves and focusing on solving prominent problems. These connotations of Xi Jinping’s thoughts on governing Xinjiang are very profound and provide us with important methodological guidance. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Project Convergence: An Arena of Innovative Collaboration
By Matthew Van Wagenen & Arnel P. David, RealClearDefense: “The Army is converting ideas, prototypes, and various modes of operating (i.e., new ways of fighting) into new capabilities.  This is a departure from the past, where a lion share of the budget and programming narrowly focused on incremental upgrades to existing platforms, adding armor, speed, reach, and lethality at exorbitant costs, over long periods of time."
The Real F-35 Problem We Need to Solve
By Scott Cooper, Defense One: "When Pentagon strategists game out potential near-peer conflicts, they tend to plug in sortie-generation rates for the F-35 Lightning II that reflect the program’s original vision, not the far lower numbers that represent the actual state of things. But if planners intend to count on the F-35 in a battle of any but the shortest duration, the Pentagon and industry must urgently improve their ability to maintain and sustain the most technologically complex (and capable) aircraft in history."

How to Safely Trim the Defense Budget
By Elbridge Colby, Mackenzie Eaglen & Roger Zakheim, Foreign Policy: “Although preparing for the next pandemic is crucial, there is no justification for trading off security abroad for safety at home when both are necessary."
Intelligence Community Not Prepared for China Threat
By Adam Schiff, Foreign Affairs: "Our nation’s intelligence agencies are not ready—not by a long shot. Absent a significant realignment in resources and organization, the United States will be ill prepared to compete with China on the global stage for decades to come."
China-India: Talk is cheap but never free
Oriana Skylar Mastro | The Interpreter
There are many reasons all parties should avoid a second Sino-Indian border war; the costs of conversation are only one of many factors that would delay conflict resolution.
The United States Has a Role to Play in the Nile by Yasir Zaidan

Net Assessment: Understanding America’s Declining Global Influence with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble  
A Solarium For Presidential Transition Teams
The Future of Chinese Power
By Michael Schuman  The policies and practices of the country's dynasties offer insights into how modern Chinese leaders may wield their strength.
Gorbachev was right about German reunification
Elisabeth Braw | Foreign Policy
 Margaret Thatcher and François Mitterrand nearly stopped it from happening, but 30 years on, reunification remains the world’s most successful geopolitical experiment.
The indications that Turkey activated the radars of its Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft systems in order to detect US-made Greek F-16 fighter jets on their return from the Eunomia exercise on August 27 off Cyprus apparently sounded the alarm in Washington about the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean and reportedly prompted the visits by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Cyprus on September 12 and Greece on September 27-29.  – Kathimerini
Munqith Dagher writes: What may make matters worse is the possible response of the militias and their military supporters to the American attacks, which may compel the United States to send more troops, thus creating major complications for a potential incoming Democratic White House. Consequently, the prospects for fixing the situation with America after Biden’s victory (for which the Iranians and their proxies in Iraq hope) will be very complex and difficult in practice, which heralds the prospect of a long military and political confrontation between America and Iran on Iraqi soil; Iraq will enter a long, dark tunnel. – Washington Institute
​

Hamdi Malik: No other Iraqi militia has gained enough credits to be given these missions. Kata’ib Hizballah is Iran’s preferred militia and it is evolving as the main force belonging to the resistance in Iraq. Unlike Lebanon or Yemen, where one major militia facilitates Iran’s expansionist policies, several smaller militias function as the Islamic Republic’s proxies in Iraq. But one militant group more than others has the potential to dominate the scene, and that is Kata’ib Hizballah. – War on the Rocks
High-End Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Theater Will Require Distributed Sensing
By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: “The United States’ military is evolving towards a new way of warfare designed to counter adversaries’ efforts to develop a dominant anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capability."
The National Defense Strategy’s Irregular Warfare Annex. Here’s Why It’s so Significant.
By Kevin Bilms, Modern War Institute: “Last week, the Defense Department released an unclassified summary of the Irregular Warfare (IW) Annex to the National Defense Strategy."
Towards an Epistemology of Grand Strategy:
Stereotype, Ideal Type, and the Dematerialization of the Concept

By Maurizio Recordati, Strategy Bridge: "Scholars from disparate disciplines have been agonizing over definitions of grand strategy with increasing frequency over the last decades."
How the Army Fits Into U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
By Francis P. Sempa, The Diplomat: “The United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy includes an important role for the ground forces of the U.S. Army."

A Brief Guide to Maritime Strategy
By Jeffrey Becker, Strategy Bridge: "This cultural aversion to strategic studies and thought has deep roots. While speaking to the incoming Naval War College class of 1911, war college founder Stephen B. Luce lamented how operational demands and a preoccupation with technology had drawn the U.S. Navy’s attention away from strategic education. “Very few [U.S. Navy line officers] are studying their profession—the art of war,” Luce observed."
After “the War that Never Was”—The Real Beginning
By H.E. Williams, Proceedings: “Beginning where Admiral A. James Winnefeld and Mr. Michael J. Morell’s “The War that Never Was: Part 1” finished, the following story offers what the end of the beginning could look like, considering their dire and unlikely ending."

American Sea Power at a Crossroads:
A Plan to Restore the U.S. Navy’s Maritime Advantage

By Bryan Clark, Timothy A. Walton & Seth Cropsey, Hudson Institute: "The U.S. fleet is at an important crossroads. Nearly twenty years after the drive for transformation led to costly and problematic programs such as the littoral combat ship (LCS), Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier, and Zumwalt-class destroyer, the Navy is again starting work on new ships in every vessel category."
The Real F-35 Problem We Need to Solve
By Scott Cooper
Unless its logistics can be improved, the jet's contributions to a major fight will be far less than Pentagon wargamers are counting on.
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