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geography & strategy 
global strike media

THE WHITE HOUSE'S 5G STRATEGY REVEALED

4/5/2020

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Why Was the U.S. So Late to Recognize the China Threat
By Bradley A. Thayer & Lianchao Han, RealClearDefense: "The recent who-is-weak-on-China verbal war between Biden and Trump captures a fundamental issue in the 2020 race:  how to confront China."
U.S., CHINA:
U.S. Tightens China Export Controls on Military Use Concerns

By Ankit Panda, The Diplomat: "The United States Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced new rules on Tuesday that will tighten the export of certain sensitive technologies to end-users in China on fears that they might find their way into use by the Chinese armed forces."
White House Releases National Strategy for 5G Security
By Brandi Vincent, NextGov: "The strategy focuses on four lines of effort and will guide how the government approaches 5G for the near future."
Non-Traditional Defense Companies – Unique Military Capabilities
By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: "The idea is that DoD acquisition can benefit not only from access to the unique products such companies produce but from their alternative approaches to design, production and sustainment."
Killing for the Republic
By Paul Johstono, Strategy Bridge: "What are the relationships between citizen-soldiers, civic virtue, and patriotism?"
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MARINE CORPS TAKE ON THE CHALLENGE OF CHINA & CHINA'S ASSESSMENT OF INDIA; HOW TO DEAL WITH INSIDER THREATS WHILE KILLING FOR THE REPUBLIC

3/27/2020

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The Case for Change
By David H. Berger, Marine Corps Gazette: “The United States Marine Corps I lead in 2020 finds itself, like the rest of the U.S. defense establishment, at a crossroads."

Still First to Fight? Shaping the 21st Century Marine Corps
By Frank G. Hoffman, FPRI: “Marine Force Design 2030The Marine Corps has earned its reputation in battle, but it has also excelled at anticipating demands for new capabilities to deal with the changing character of war.
  Ben Lowsen on Chinese PLA Ground Forces
(The Diplomat) Assessing the future trajectory of PLA ground forces development.
Patriot deployment to Iraq is helpful, but insufficient against Iran
(Defense News) The eviction of U.S. forces from Iraq represents a major strategic objective for the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Tehran has used its extraordinary influence in Baghdad to push for an American departure regardless of the interests of the Iraqi people.
A Chat with the Commandant: Gen. David H. Berger on the Marine Corps’ New Direction with Gen. David H. Berger and Ryan Evans
IN DEFENSE OF US GENERALSHIP
THE IDENTITY OF THE MARINE CORPS
China’s Strategic Assessment of India by Yun Sun
China's Defense Spending Is Larger Than It Looks
By Frederico Bartels, Defense One: “An early lesson emerging from China's handling of the COVID-19 emergency is that Beijing still manipulates data to fit its desired narrative."
Strategika Issue 63: Should The United States Leave The Middle East?
via Strategika
Strategika Issue 63 is now available online. Strategika is an online journal that analyzes ongoing issues of national security in light of conflicts of the past—the efforts of the Military History Working Group of historians
Leaving The Middle East: The Fallacy Of A False Dichotomy
by Admiral James O. Ellis Jr. via Strategika
In classical logic, the false dichotomy, or false dilemma, is defined as an argument where only two choices are presented yet more exist, or a spectrum of possible choices exists between two extremes. False dilemmas are usually characterized by “either this or that” language but can also be characterized by the omission of choices. This insidious tactic has the appearance of forming a logical argument, but under closer scrutiny it becomes evident that there are more possibilities than the either/or choice that is presented.
CSIS
https://www.wsj.com/articles/marines-plan-to-retool-to-meet-china-threat-11584897014
Mark F. Cancian writes: Gone are tanks and capabilities for sustained ground combat and counterinsurgency. Instead, the corps focuses on long-range and precision strike for a maritime campaign in the Western Pacific against China. But this new Marine Corps faces major risks if the future is different from that envisioned or if the new concepts for operations in a hostile environment prove more difficult to implement than the Marine Corps’ war games indicate. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
MH-47G Chinook Special Operations Helicopter
From Air Force-Technology: "The first new-build MH-47G helicopter was delivered to the USASOC in September 2014."

U.S., MIDDLE EAST:
CENTCOM Pushes a Dubious Carrier Strategy

By David Larter, Defense News: "U.S. Central Command is doubling down on a two-carrier strategy of questionable value and crippling consequences for Navy readiness."
U.S., INDO-PACIFIC:
Indo-Pacom Presses All Domain Ops; Sends Plan to Hill Soon

By Paul McLeary, Paul McLeary: “"For its backbone," Adm. Davidson said, "we need a joint -- joint -- network of training ranges capable of meeting the exercise, experimentation, and innovation objectives of the new warfighting concept.""
‘Behavioral Indicators’: Avoiding Self-Defeat in Countering Insider Threats
By Frank Tortorello, War Room: "In the counter-insider threat (CIT) world of the United States Department of Defense (DoD), the concept of a “behavioral indicator” is a primary basis for deciding whether an individual ought to be considered a threat to DoD resources."
What Compelled the Roman Way of Warfare? Killing for the Republic
By Rebecca Burgess, Strategy Bridge: "Any polity can field an army through compulsion or other violent means. What matters more is what makes your average person choose to stay on the battlefield."
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KIRKPATRICK, DOCTRINE AND STRATEGY

3/23/2020

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Geopolitical Jockeying in a Time of Pandemic
By Michael Auslin, Spectator: “It’s business as usual in Asia’s vital seas.
Smarter Ways to Improve Missile Defense Capability
By Patty-Jane Geller, RealClearDefense: "The January 7 Iranian missile attack against al-Asad air base in Iraq immediately led many to question why the base had no missile defenses in place."
Is a new Kirkpatrick Doctrine the answer? No doctrine before strategy
Giselle Donnelly et al. | The American Interest
The OODA Loop and the Half-Beat
By Alastair Luft, Strategy Bridge: "What does it mean to get inside an opponent’s OODA (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) loop?"
Time Slips By: The Tartar Steppe
By Christopher Johnson, Strategy Bridge: "The story’s protagonist, Giovanni Drogo, spends his days in the mountain outpost of Fort Bastiani overlooking the Tartar Steppe’s barren lands."

RIP the Carter Doctrine, 1980-2019
By Hal Brands, Steven A. Cook & Kenneth M. Pollack , Foreign Policy: "By most measures Jimmy Carter’s presidency was a lackluster one. Americans were experiencing malaise at home and a string of apparent defeats abroad, highlighted by the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan. Yet it was these twin crises that produced the Carter Doctrine, which has served the United States and its allies well ever since."

I Spent Decades as a Covert CIA Operative – This Is My New Mission
By Brad Johnson, American Military News: "Over the previous decades, I have observed the Intelligence Community turn away from its core responsibilities for the safety and security of all Americans to a far more political agenda. The intelligence community’s (IC) quadrennial report about global trends published in 2017 is a poster child example of what is wrong with intelligence today."
Fighting Corona Will Strain U.S. Military Capacity in the Indo-Pacific
By Ashley Townshend & Jim Golby, the interpreter: "With outbreaks in the ranks and resources directed home, America’s military commitments will be challenged."
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THE IDF'S NEW WAR MACHINE & IRAQI'S FINALLY GET US LED MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS

3/22/2020

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The IDF's Momentum Plan Aims to Create a New Type of War Machine
By Yaakov Lappin, March 22, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: After a year of planning, including a thorough and at times painful "self MRI scan," the IDF has set itself the target of creating a networked force that can destroy enemy capabilities in as little time and at as low a cost as possible. According to its new multi-year Momentum program, the IDF has changed its definition of victory, marking a significant and potentially extremely fruitful shift in military thinking.

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Attacks in Iraq underscore need for indirect fire protection capability
Bradley Bowman and Behnam Ben Taleblu — Defense News
The newly released U.N. Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran savaged Tehran’s failure to adhere to basic human rights norms. Javaid Rehman, the U.N. Rapporteur who released his report to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland,  on Monday, said: “Individuals who have called for the alleviation of economic hardships, and those who peacefully exercise their civil and political rights in defense of human rights have faced a harsh response. In particular, I remain deeply concerned at the arrest and imprisonment of human rights defenders and lawyers. Read More
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US PARTNERS WITH VIETNAM AGAINST THE PLA & EXAMINING PROBLEMS WITH RUSSIA'S SU FIGHTER JET

3/15/2020

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What Syria Ought to Teach America About Competition with Russia by Aaron Stein

Supporting Joint Warfighting with Mission-Level Simulations by Robert Richbourg, June Rodriguez, David M. Gohlich, and James N. Bexfield

Horns of a Dilemma: Allies and American Foreign Policy with Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Kimberly Field  
RUSSIA:
Russia’s Su-57 Stealth Fighter Has Problems

By Caleb Larson, The National Interest: "All the cards are stacked against the Su-57 — the price of oil is low, it’s engines are no better than its predecessors, and the current airframes it would replace are doing just fine."
https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/even-coronavirus-couldnt-stop-the-2nd-us-carrier-visit-to-vietnam/
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RUSSIAN-US RIVALRY OVER ETHNIC STRATAGEM ABROAD:  GROUND ZERO IS BLACK SEA & MOBILE NUCLEAR REACTORS

3/8/2020

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Russia’s Modernization Programs for Strategic Nuclear Bombers
By Mark B. Schneider, The Daily Beast:  Putin’s Russia has been modernizing its strategic nuclear bomber strike capability for two decades. Initially, this involved upgrading the Soviet legacy Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers plus a few newly produced Tu-160s with more advanced nuclear missiles. Not surprisingly, strategic nuclear upgrades were given first priority."

The Russian Understanding of War
By B.A. Friedman, Strategy Bridge: "The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the coercive annexation of the Crimea, and the ongoing support of proxy groups in Eastern Ukraine have induced seizures in western military thought, especially in the United States."
Heather A. Conley, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Matthew Melino write: The Kola Peninsula is the centerpiece of Russia’s military establishment in the western Arctic, and its air and maritime capabilities are essential to homeland defense, Arctic dominance, and global power projection capabilities. The concentration and range of  multi-domain assets— from SLBMs and ICBMs to EW—deployed on and around the Peninsula underscores the Arctic’s strategic value to Russian national interests. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​
RUSSIA:
Russia's Tu-160: The Biggest, Fastest and Heaviest Bomber Ever to Fly

By John Doe, CNN: “Fastest bomber ever built. The largest bomber ever built. Heaviest bomber ever built. All of these monikers refer to the Tupelov Tu-160 “White Swan” (NATO reporting name “Blackjack”), a legacy Soviet airframe that has of late gotten a new lease on life.
Clausewitzian Deep Tracks:
"Guide to Tactics, or the Theory of the Combat"

By Olivia Garard, Strategy Bridge: "On War is not the only text Carl von Clausewitz wrote. An undercited and underread text is “Guide to Tactics, Or the Theory of the Combat.”"
Twenty-five years ago, the Dayton Accords ended the fractious ethnic violence in the Balkans, Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II. Yet Bosnia and Herzegovina remains the most fragile country in southeastern Europe, argue Ivana Stradner and Max Frost in a RealClearWorld op-ed. Russia’s current strategy of using Bosnia’s religious and ethnic divisions to foment instability is working. To prevent a new and costly conflict in Bosnia, the West needs to confront Russia’s growing influence. Learn more here.
In recent weeks, Russia has absorbed two major setbacks: a falling out with Turkey over Syria and the onset of an oil price war with Saudi Arabia. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands notes that recent events remind us that President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy is transactional, shortsighted, and often counterproductive, similar to that of President Trump’s statecraft. Mortgaging the future for short-term gains isn’t a winning strategy, but it’s an approach that Putin and Trump seem to have in common. Continue here.
Post-Soleimani, Russia's Role Will Grow in Iran's Geopolitical Thinking
By Emil Avdaliani, March 13, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: US-Iran relations reached a nadir following the killing by US drone strike of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. As Iran’s isolation grows, its link to Russia is likely to strengthen. Moscow can use Iran’s geopolitical weakness to its own economic advantage by making large sales of Russian military hardware to the Islamic Republic and encouraging deeper cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and Tehran. At the same time, Russia will use the death of Soleimani to constrain Iranian troop activities on the Syrian battlefield and will generally limit Damascus’s dependence on Iran.

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Nuclear Threats Are Growing. How Should U.S. Missile Defenses Be Upgraded?
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "When future historians analyze U.S. security policies during the early decades of the 21st century, they may be hard-pressed to explain what policymakers were thinking."
Dragons and snakes stalk us
On American Grand Strategy
By Alex J. Beckstrand, Strategy Bridge: "... How are American strategists and foreign policy thinkers performing with regard to these grand strategy principles?"
Why We Need the W76-2 Low Yield Nuke
By Adam Lowther, Breaking Defense: "A low-yield submarine launched ballistic missile provides the United States with an independent credible capability the Russians actually fear."
RUSSIA:
Russia’s First Upgraded Borei-Class Ballistic Missile Sub

By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: “The nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) Knyaz Vladimir (Prince Vladimir), the Russian Navy’s first upgraded Project 955A Borei (A) II-class (“North Wind”) or Dolgorukiy-class boomer, will likely be commissioned in April or May of this year, according to a Russian defense industry source.
Pentagon Awards Contracts to Design Mobile Nuclear Reactor
By Aaron Mehta, Defense News: "The Pentagon on Monday issued three contracts to start design work on mobile, small nuclear reactors, as part of a two-step plan towards achieving nuclear power for American forces at home and abroad."
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Winter 2019 Issue
Black Sea conflicts: Militarization and peacebuilding
The sheer density of protracted conflicts in the Black Sea region makes it particularly exposed to the geopolitical ambitions of regional and global powers. The rapid militarization in Russia-controlled territories in recent years has only added fuel to the fire, dramatically increasing security concerns and underscoring the need for the West and its allies in the region to address the so-called frozen conflicts.
Read article
All eyes on Moscow as Erdogan and Putin meet for Syria talks
Gönül Tol

Running around in circles: How Saudi Arabia is losing its war in Yemen to Iran
Nadwa Al-Dawsari

The Shift to Majoritarian Politics and Sectarianism in India: Domestic and International Responses
Roshni Kapur, Nazneen Mohsina
How Iran’s regime set off a coronavirus bomb on its own economy
Saeed Ghasseminejad -- New York Post
The coronavirus has shattered any hope of the Iranian economy clawing out from under two years of deep recession. To the ruling regime’s chagrin, the virus has begun to adversely affect precisely those sectors that seemed poised for growth after weathering the return of US sanctions. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Iranian economy contracted 4.8 percent in 2018 and 9.5 percent in 2019. The closest thing to good news was that both the IMF and the World Bank forecasted zero growth in 2020. Read More

Sharpening the Iran File
Clifford D. May and Richard Goldberg — FDD's Foreign Podicy
The deal President Obama cut with Iran’s rulers provided them with billions of dollars and a “patient pathway” to the acquisition of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to targets anywhere on the planet. President Trump withdrew from that deal and, in its place, initiated a “maximum pressure” campaign of economic sanctions intended to change the regime’s behavior — if not change the regime itself. Listen Here

The UN’s Selective Outrage on Occupied Territories
Brenda Shaffer, Svante Cornell and Jonathan Schanzer — Real Clear World
Yesterday during remarks at the AIPAC annual conference, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo referred to the recent publication by the UN Human Rights Office of a database of companies that operate in the West Bank. Pompeo defined the report as “a real threat” that “only serves to facilitate the BDS movement and delegitimize Israel.” Pompeo declared that the United States will take actions on behalf of the “members of our business community that are being threatened by this release.” Read More
US-India helicopter deal deepens vital partnership
Bradley Bowman, Cleo  Paskal and Major Liane "Trixie" Zivitski — Defense News
Due to American and Indian negotiators’ failure to reach a trade agreement, some media reports panned President Donald Trump’s visit last week to India as more show than substance. Yet a closer look at the U.S.-India defense deals finalized during the trip shows that the visit facilitated deeper security cooperation with a critical U.S. partner in Asia. Washington and New Delhi used the presidential visit to announce India’s decision to purchase more than $3 billion in defense equipment. Read More
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CASPIAN REPORT:  THE MIDDLE EAST FOR 2020

3/3/2020

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THE CHINESE NAVY SEEKS THE PHILIPPINES & CHINESE POLITICAL WAR

2/28/2020

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China’s Navy Shipbuilders Are ‘Outbuilding Everybody’
By Dave Makichuk, Asia Times: "Welcome to another headache for the Pentagon — it appears China has grasped accelerated shipbuilding technologies and related aircraft development as its march toward an imposing blue water navy continues unabated."
The PRC’s Cautious Stance on the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
By Yamazaki Amane, China Brief: "... the United States is not alone. Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Abe Shinzo has advocated Japan’s own “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy,” which he has discussed since 2016. This concept emphasizes economic development assistance and infrastructure construction, promotion of the rule of law, and freedom of trade. It particularly emphasizes maritime security and freedom of navigation—which connect directly to the territorial disputes that are a key point of ongoing contention between Japan and China."
CHINA:
China Unveils Latest Z-10 Attack Helicopter Variant

By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: “Chinese state-owned media released images of a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Zhishengji-10 (Z-10) attack helicopter fitted with new engine exhaust outlets."
Five Reasons the U.S. Army Deserves
to Be First in Line for More Modernization Funding

By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “Army leaders saw what was coming and gave up on increasing the size of their force over a year ago. Instead, they opted to spend what discretionary resources they had on modernizing their weapons and networks. Many of the Army’s current weapons first entered the force in the 1980s; the service is long overdue for a technology refresh."
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-philippines-alliance-dying-123841 
Insufficient missile defense funding would leave Americans vulnerable
Bradley Bowman — Defense News
The U.S. Missile Defense Agency submitted its report on unfunded priorities to Congress last week, which includes a number of priorities worth more than $1.1 billion. The list demonstrates the tangible consequences of a flat Pentagon budget request and provides a road map for lawmakers to ensure that the U.S. homeland and America’s forward-deployed troops have sufficient missile defense protection. The Trump administration requested $705.4 billion for the Department of Defense for fiscal 2021, a level that fails to keep pace with inflation. Read More
China’s political warfare strategy takes hit from coronavirus
David Maxwell — Washington Examiner
The Wuhan coronavirus, or SARS-CoV-2 as the World Health Organization has named it and the Chinese would prefer it to be called, may be on the verge of becoming a pandemic. If it continues to spread, it may take a tragic toll on human life around the world. It is already having economic effects such as bringing down stock market prices and causing capital to evaporate. It is possible geostrategic relations will be altered in ways no one has anticipated. Read More
How The Revolutionary Guards Could Reshape Iran
Jonathan Schanzer – Quoted by Ilan Berman – The National Interest
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HOW TO ESTABLISH CREDIBILITY WITH MOSCOW

2/11/2020

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America's New Defense Budget with Matt Vallone
Top 5 things to watch in Congress’ 2021 defense budget hearings
 Mackenzie Eaglen | Defense One
 The Pentagon has said that the FY21 budget will make the national defense strategy irreversible, but military top brass has been forced to make challenging program decisions under declining top lines.
How to Respond to Russia’s INF Treaty Violation
By Gary Schmitt, RealClearDefense: “When The New York Times reported that Russia had likely deployed a nuclear-armed cruise missile in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.”

The Imperative of the Offense on the Future Battlefield
By Bill Hix & Robert Simpson, Modern War Institute: “The modern slaughters of World Wars I and II are modern demonstrations that when great powers fight symmetrically, the result is costly, even globally catastrophic. While America avoided catastrophe during the Cold War, the potential for great-power conflict and its consequences have returned."
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​New U.S. Weapon Strengthens Nuclear Deterrence of Moscow
SDI: A Basis for a Multi-Layered Defense Against Ballistic Missiles
Can Warfighters Remain the Masters of AI? by Harrison Schramm and Jeff Kline
Report Finds U.S. Defense Industrial Base in Decline
By Yasmin Tadjdeh, National Defense Magazine: "The defense industrial base is on a negative trajectory as companies grapple with deteriorating conditions for industrial security and the availability and cost of skilled labor and materials, according to a new report released Feb. 5."
Navy’s Unmanned Growler Is a Look at War’s Future
By Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics: "The Navy converted manned combat jets into unmanned ones. Nobody had any idea they were doing it."
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AMERICA'S FUTURE CONFLICT WITH CHINA EMERGES; WHAT THE COLD WAR TAUGHT DEFENSE ABOUT UNITY OF PURPOSE; aei's scholars on putin, war budgets and german political unity

2/6/2020

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CHINA:
NORTHCOM Links Chinese Hypersonic Glider to Nuclear Program

By Steve Trimble, Aviation Week: "All the U.S. military’s previous assessments of China’s nuclear arsenal included a mix of ICBMs, with silo-based DF-4 and DF-5 rockets, along with road-mobile DF-31, DF-31A and the recently unveiled DF-41 missiles. The warheads for each missile are known to include several multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles, with maneuverable reentry vehicles also believed to be in development or already deployed."
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CHINA:
China’s Modernizing Military

By Lindsay Maizland, Council on Foreign Relations: "The People’s Liberation Army is aiming to become the dominant force in the Asia-Pacific, strengthening China’s hand toward Taiwan and international disputes in the South China Sea.
China and Nuclear Restraint
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): "China increasingly finds itself depicted as the bête noire of nuclear arms control. The U.S. government has said the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty collapsed because of Chinese actions outside the treaty and not merely Russian violations inside it."

China’s Growing 5G Dominance Is a Disaster for U.S. Security
By Charlie Kirk, The Hill: "China’s influence over the fifth generation of wireless technology, more commonly known as 5G, is a lot more important than some TV commercials might have you believe."

Is the U.S. Public Sleepwalking Into a Sino-Centric World Order?
By Lulio Vargas-Cohen, RealClearDefense: "While the U.S. is at a cros sroads in navigating the most important foreign policy issue of the century, the U.S. public remains unengaged about the importance of getting U.S.-China relations right."
Three Huge Defense Threats for Which U.S. Is Woefully Under-Prepared
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "The United States outspends every other nation on defense, and as a result has the best trained, best equipped military in the world. The joint force regularly undertakes missions that no other country's military would be capable of executing. However, there are existential defense threats for which the nation is not prepared . . ."
Not Another Peloponnesian War: Great Power Collaboration?
By Jack Bowers, Strategy Bridge: "The narrative of great-power competition relies largely on a realist discourse reflected in the well-known plot of the Thucydides Trap."

Options for a Joint Support Service
By Jason Hughes, Divergent Options: ". . . without dynamic modernization solutions the DoD will be unable to sharpen the American Military’s competitive edge and realize the National Defense Strategy’s vision of a more lethal, resilient, and rapidly innovating Joint Force. While DoD’s strategic guidance has evolved, its force structure has not."

The State Department’s Dysfunction Predates Pompeo
By Kori Schake, Bloomberg Opinion: "Bad as he is, the Secretary of Swagger isn’t entirely to blame for the crisis of American diplomacy."
Why We Need A New Cold War Strategic Approach
If the United States cannot better align its actions, messaging, and strategy and do it in a unified fashion — as it did during the Cold War — it risks reductions to military readiness and our ability to effectively compete with adversaries.
 In a new AEI report, Hal Brands discusses how the US can apply lessons from Cold War political warfare to modern competition with China and Russia. An understanding of political warfare is essential to succeed in the intellectual and geopolitical aspects of great-power competition today. Read the full report here.
Mackenzie Eaglen assesses the winners and losers of the Pentagon report. Due to difficult trade-offs by the Pentagon, it now needs a partner in the legislative branch. Finish it here.
Hal Brands in a Bloomberg op-ed. When we argue about Germany in 1990, we’re arguing about what America has done in the world since then — and what it should be doing today.  Finish it here.
Leon Aron in an Atlantic op-ed. Putin can’t imagine Russia without himself at the center, especially when the regime he built is on the verge of destabilization. Read it here.
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REVIEW OF US COMMITMENT IN AFRICA

2/6/2020

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Rwanda: How long can a dictator’s malign acts go unpunished by an uncritical media?
Roger Bate | AEIdeas
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U.S., AFRICA:
AFRICOM’s Assessment of U.S. Security Challenges in Africa

By Yacqub Ismail, International Policy Digest: “In the 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy, which serves as a guidance for the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. government prioritized addressing security challenges from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as well as violent extremist groups. AFRICOM’s new strategic approach to secure its interests on the continent are guided by the following: partner for success; compete to win; and, maintain pressure on non-state actors."
Krulak Revisited:
The Three-Block War, Strategic Corporals, and the Future Battlefield

By Franklin Annis, Modern War Institute: “In the 1990s, Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps Gen Charles C. Krulak advanced the idea of what he called a “three-block war” to explain battlefield realities in an era of failed and failing nation-states. Not only was the Marine Corps operating in complex environments and executing a range of missions—including humanitarian aid and peacekeeping, alongside mid-intensity conflict—it was also operating in an atmosphere of pervasive media coverage."
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THE NEW CHAOS OF WAR:  URBAN WAR & HOW WASHINGTON DID IT

2/5/2020

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Mattis and Stavridis on Military-to-Civilian Leadership
By John Waters, Omaha World-Herald: “How did George Washington pull together the revolutionary army? It was very boring. It was listen and learn. (The leader) is actually there to coach them and be with them”: Jim Mattis said this to me over the phone in early January, noting that he applied the “listen and learn” technique to his own transition from four-star general to secretary of defense."
http://www.amazon.com/UnCivilization-Urban-Geopolitics-Time-Chaos/dp/1892998181/ref=sr
Remarks on the book by its author   It is impossible to formulate the answers to the complex strategic uncertainties we now face unless we first ask the appropriate questions. This is what I have attempted to do in my new book, UnCivilization: Urban Geopolitics in a Time of Chaos:1 to frame questions. And to postulate paths to the answers.

When, for example, will the modern world abandon its obsessive - and self-destructive - preoccupation with the tactical threat of terrorism, and begin to focus on the greater strategic context? How do we deal with the fragility of our now-profound dependence on energy, and the attendant long logistical lines to supply it, for every function of civilization, progress, and survival?

How and when will the lights of the great urban spread of mankind begin to flicker and falter? Will they shine brightly into the night in new places, or be sustained still in the cities which we have burnished with our familiarity? What follows when the ships and their cargoes of oil and goods come with less frequency? What happens when the surge in population peaks and suddenly goes into rapid decline? What happens to the balanced nation-state when the preponderance of the world's population lives in cities?

Will all or some of this happen soon? Will it happen at all? And what will be the result of all of this?

Is transformational change already upon us? Have we, in the midst of our striving for greater "democracy", emerged into a situation where - in most of our modern societies - the greater populations are subjects to their governments, rather than the intended goal that governments should be subject to the people? Is this part of the sclerosis of accumulated laws and entitlements?

Change for the most part occurs inexorably over the seemingly gentle sea of history; grinding, like the mills of God, slowly, but exceeding fine. What makes change tolerable - and strategic affairs manageable - is that this evolution usually appears to occur imperceptibly and with the calmness of moss growing on old logs. Sudden change causes disorientation and panic, both to individuals and societies.

The period into which we are now embarking will involve much sudden change. The familiarity of old routines, established forms, and familiar hierarchies will, in many respects, disappear. It is, indeed, already happening. And it has happened before. It is how societies, cultures, and civilizations emerge or evaporate. Individuals and societies can, however, adapt to new realities, both good and bad. In the process, they often forget the paths and triggers which led to the dramatic watersheds thrust upon them. Most people, and most societies, do not have a conscious view of their past or their future; they merely react. They are swept in a storm of reaction, and have no control over it, no understanding of it. They are the last leaves of autumn swept by blustering air, whose movement was dictated by the pull of a distant moon, the heat of a distant sun. Like the leaves, they question not the cause of their present situation, even if they bemoan their fate.

I wrote this new book, UnCivilization, to gain a measure of our present shape, as a human society, and to understand whence the gale has its origins, and whither it will dispatch us.
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EXAMINING THE STATE OF US MISSILE DEFENSES & WHY THE NAVY MUST INTEGRATE TO TAKE ON CHINA IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

2/5/2020

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Iranian Missiles and Americans Exposed
By Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, RealClearDefense: “President Trump boasted in military in his State of the Union address Wednesday night. Trump is right that the military has received significant investments during his tenure. But recent events also reveal where there are vulnerabilities."
U.S. Missile Defense Woefully Prepared for 21st Century Threats
By Jared Whitley, RealClearDefense: “Whereas mutually assured destruction kept the world relatively safe during the Cold War, the proliferation of nuclear capabilities has turned Planet Earth into a ticking, radioactive timebomb."

To Deter China, the Naval Services Must Integrate
By Mike Gallagher, War on the Rocks: “Change on the scale envisioned by the National Defense Strategy isn't always easy, or pretty. Observers of American strategy often wonder how the United States will focus on great power competition when it cannot escape the gravitational pull of the Middle East. This is a worthy topic of debate and causes me no small amount of consternation as well. But even as Washington might look for ways to bring its commitments in the Middle East to a more sustainable level, let's not ignore the lessons simmering conflicts there and elsewhere have for facing down great powers in the Indo-Pacific and Europe."
U.S.-China Competition in Asia: Who Risks Wins
By Sam Roggeveen, the interpreter: “The two key questions for America’s allies in Asia are how long do they want to maintain a U.S.-centered strategic posture, and when do they start preparing for a post-American future?"

China in the Levant
By John Toolan Jr., John Bird & Harry Hoshovsky, RealClearDefense: “Over the past decade, we’ve seen great power jockeying return to the Eastern Mediterranean with China using its deep pockets to secure influence with key U.S. allies as a means to further its global ambitions and adversely impact the United States’ national security interests."
Richard Matlock writes: Over the past five years, missile threats have evolved far more rapidly than conventional wisdom had predicted. […]The 2019 Missile Defense Review called for a comprehensive approach to countering regional missiles of all kinds and from whatever source, as well as the increasingly complex intercontinental ballistic missiles from rogue states. But programs and budgets have not yet aligned with the policy. The upcoming defense budget submission presents an important opportunity to address these new and complex challenges. – Defense News
The First Element–Leadership and Combat Power
By Jeff Barta & Patrick O'Keefe, The Company Leader:  "What does it take to bring the full power of the U.S. Army to bear upon enemies of America?"

Thinking Before Shooting: Intelligence and Special Operations
By Steve Balestrieri, SOFREP: “The last 16 years have seen our forces fighting a different kind of war, with a different set of parameters. But we shouldn’t forget the hard lessons learned through the decades of the Cold War. Because we’re going to need them."

Whose National Interest? Which Foreign Policy?
By Michael Colebrook, Strategy Bridge: "Foreign policy consensus is rare in America, just as moral consensus is the stuff of fairy tales. However, difficulty in reaching agreement  is no excuse to succumb to relativism or blind fatalism."
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HOW CHINA ENVISIONS WAR WITH THE US & EXAMINING THE WORLD'S LARGEST NUCLEAR PROLIFERATORS, IRAN AND CHINA

1/24/2020

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“Unrestricted Warfare is a book on military strategy written in 1999 by two colonels in the People's Liberation Army, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. Its primary concern is how a nation such as China can defeat a technologically superior opponent through a variety of means.”


David Rennie, The Economist magazine in Beijing; writes the “Chaguan” column; in re: Artificial intelligence; the contest between the US and China. From the first Cold War: how adversaries can agree not to destroy each other: even when you don't trust each other at all, you can nonetheless discuss a new technology that could abruptly change everything, destroy everything. Now we have three, not two, parties: Russia, US, China.  Even during the Cold War, you could send an inspector to see what was being done; but no way to see an algorithm.  . . . Unenforceable compliance.  We’re left making a distinction: countries’ saying it’s best not to have this technology; but among major powers (not rogue powers), it’s possible for large countries to agree that biowar, for example, is unimaginably dangerous & stupid, just not worth having. . . .  The PLA is focussed on nonnuclear war.
..  ..  ..  
In 1999 the Chinese released a book entitled, Unrestricted Warfare. Commentary: “. . .  PLA doctrine. . . . has focused on developing a joint operation doctrine for fighting limited, high-intensity conflicts using high-tech weapons.”
  
https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg614af.10?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
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THE ART OF WAR RE-TRANSLATED

1/16/2020

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https://www.amazon.com/Art-War-Translation-Michael-Nylan-dp-B0816Z3L6G/dp/B0816Z3L6G/ref=mt_audio_download?_encoding=UTF8&me=&qid=
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WHY EURASIA MATTERS

1/13/2020

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https://www.amazon.com/Empires-Silk-Road-History-Central-dp-0691135894/dp/0691135894/ref=mt_hardcover?_encoding=UTF8&me=&qid
The first complete history of Central Eurasia from ancient times to the present day, Empires of the Silk Road represents a fundamental rethinking of the origins, history, and significance of this major world region. Christopher Beckwith describes the rise and fall of the great Central Eurasian empires, including those of the Scythians, Attila the Hun, the Turks and Tibetans, and Genghis Khan and the Mongols. In addition, he explains why the heartland of Central Eurasia led the world economically, scientifically, and artistically for many centuries despite invasions by Persians, Greeks, Arabs, Chinese, and others. In retelling the story of the Old World from the perspective of Central Eurasia, Beckwith provides a new understanding of the internal and external dynamics of the Central Eurasian states and shows how their people repeatedly revolutionized Eurasian civilization.


Beckwith recounts the Indo-Europeans' migration out of Central Eurasia, their mixture with local peoples, and the resulting development of the Graeco-Roman, Persian, Indian, and Chinese civilizations; he details the basis for the thriving economy of premodern Central Eurasia, the economy's disintegration following the region's partition by the Chinese and Russians in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, and the damaging of Central Eurasian culture by Modernism; and he discusses the significance for world history of the partial reemergence of Central Eurasian nations after the collapse of the Soviet Union.


Empires of the Silk Road places Central Eurasia within a world historical framework and demonstrates why the region is central to understanding the history of civilization.
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HOW TO ASSESS CHINA'S ACQUISITION OF ISLANDS

1/13/2020

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The Conventional Wisdom on China’s Island Bases Is Dangerously Wrong
By Gregory B. Poling, War on the Rocks: “Last month, during a conference on China's maritime ambitions, I was asked a question I often get about Beijing's artificial island bases in the South China Sea. That question goes something like this: Couldn't the United States easily neutralize these remote outposts in a conflict, negating their value?"

Systems Confrontation and System Destruction Warfare
By Jeffrey Engstrom, Rand: "How the Chinese People's Liberation Army seeks to wage modern warfare."

South China Sea: Malaysia, Indonesia, And Vietnam Beat China At Its Own Game
By Panos Mourdoukoutas, Forbes: "Malaysia has joined Indonesia and Vietnam to beat China at its own game in the South China Sea (SCS): The use of lawfare to settle disputes."
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THE GREAT PROMISE THAT IS CENTRAL ASIA

1/11/2020

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HOW TO GET GRAND STRATEGY RIGHT

1/3/2020

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CSIS Bad Idea: Debating Grand Strategy
It is fitting that the last in our series from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on “Bad Ideas in National Security” should center on the role of ‘grand strategy’ in US foreign and military policy. Readers of history will recall that the pre-eminent grand strategy of the Cold War was ‘containment’ of…
CSIS Bad Idea: Assuming the ‘Small Wars’ Era is Over
By Alexandra Evans & Alexandra Stark, Breaking Defense: “Intended as a prudent reprioritization, the dramatic shift in demand for more “great power gurus” threatens to shelve the experience and institutional knowledge accumulated over the last two decades."
Is The Mediterranean Still Geo-Strategically Essential?
By Barry Strauss, Strategika: "The Mediterranean Sea is today, as it has always been, a crossroads. The name itself testifies to that, as it means “the sea in the middle of the earth,” a Latin term reflecting an earlier Greek belief. We know better, or do we?"
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HERE'S WHY ALLIANCES MATTER:  WHY PULLING TROOPS HOME HARMS AMERICAN INTERESTS

12/28/2019

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CSIS Bad Idea: Pulling The Troops Home
Alliances, including forward-stationing of US forces abroad, make the United States safer, its allies more secure, and all more prosperous.
0 Comments

how the ancient han fought wars

12/27/2019

0 Comments

 
http://www.amazon.com/Ancient-Chinese-Warfare-Ralph-Sawyer/dp/046502145X/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8
0 Comments

EXAMINING RUSSIAN NUCLEAR DETERRENCE

12/27/2019

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Russia’s Grom-2019 strategic nuclear exercise
0 Comments

CHINA SWITCHES TO THE EAST CHINA SEA

12/27/2019

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ASIA TIMES
0 Comments

2019 IN ELEVEN MAPS

12/26/2019

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2019 Hot Spots: The Year in Eleven Maps
By Claire Felter, Council on Foreign Relations: “In 2019, long-simmering geopolitical conflicts returned to the fore, migration crises swelled in the Americas, and human rights abuses raised alarm in countries around the world. CFR collects its most relevant maps on the past year’s biggest global developments."
‘Right on Our Doorstep’: Secret Sub Reveals China’s Chilling Plan
By Jamie Seidel, news.com.au: "After years of domination in the South China Sea, Chinese submarines have started popping up somewhere new."
0 Comments

HOW TO DEVELOP AN EFFECTIVE RISK CULTURE & PRESENT AT DEMOLITION

12/8/2019

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ASIA TIMES
Schriver, Pentagon Asia policy lead, exits building
(Defense News) Randall Schriver, the defense department’s top policy official for Asia, has left the Pentagon.
Present at the demolition
Matthew Continetti | The Washington Free Beacon
The post–World War II order is ending, and so far nothing has replaced it. As the legacy of the 20th century recedes into the past, the only 21st-century alternatives are offered from an authoritarian surveillance state.
Taking the fight to the kleptocrats
Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest
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