Geography & Strategy - CounterStrikeMedia

HOW TO DEVELOP AN EFFECTIVE RISK CULTURE & PRESENT AT DEMOLITION

12/8/2019

ASIA TIMES

Schriver, Pentagon Asia policy lead, exits building
(Defense News) Randall Schriver, the defense department’s top policy official for Asia, has left the Pentagon.

Present at the demolition
Matthew Continetti | The Washington Free Beacon
The post–World War II order is ending, and so far nothing has replaced it. As the legacy of the 20th century recedes into the past, the only 21st-century alternatives are offered from an authoritarian surveillance state.

Taking the fight to the kleptocrats
Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest

WHY SOUTH ASIA WILL DOMINATE: GREGORY COPLEY EDITOR DEFENSE-FOREIGN AFFAIRS

12/7/2019

EAST ASIAN ALLIANCES AGAINST CHINA

CHECHEN STRONG MAN SURVIVES WITH PUTIN

CHANGES IN CENTCOM FOR GREAT POWER COMPETITION

12/3/2019

America and the Kurds
By John “Mick” Bednarek & Svante E. Cornell, RealClearDefense: "Much of the outrage and frustration for the U.S. withdrawal from Syria focused on America’s long-standing relationship with the Kurds, without differentiating between Kurdish groups."

Strategic and Geographic Fluency, South America Style
By James Holmes, Proceedings: "Long ago an inscription at the Temple of Apollo at Delphi advised supplicants to know thyself. Chinese sage Sun Tzu outdid the Greek oracle, instructing disciples to know the enemy and know yourself. Heed this counsel and in a hundred battles you will never be in peril."

JSTARS Faces a New Era Outside CENTCOM
By Rachel S. Cohen, Air Force Magazine: "Air Combat Command has pulled its E-8C Joint STARS fleet out of the Middle East after 18 years, another change for the platform that recently saw its long-running replacement effort cancelled and is ramping up in-house maintenance."

Marine Corps Training Shifts to Great Power Competition
By Stew Magnuson, National Defense Magazine: "“We want to get good at that again,” Reid said. “It’s not just about training the tactics. It’s about systems. It’s about thought processes. It’s about — when you’re facing somebody that has equal or better equipment than you, that is as dedicated to the fight as you — can you make rapid decisions by taking in information and then implement those decisions across kind of a domain challenged environment to take action?”"

Putin Nukes Trump – Again
By Mark B. Schneider, RealClearDefense: "The Thunder-2019 strategic nuclear exercise was reportedly the largest of its class. The announced duration was three days rather than the usual one. It continued the trend toward an increased number of live nuclear missile launches. This was the first large nuclear exercise in which there were intermediate-range Kalibr cruise missiles and 9M729 nuclear-capable cruise missile launches. Neither the U.S. nor any NATO state has counterparts for these weapons, so there is little likelihood they were being used in response to the U.S. or NATO first use. Even if we had comparable weapons, the probability we would use them in a conventional war would be close to zero."

Focusing on Quality Over Quantity in the U.S. Military Budget
By Michael E. O'Hanlon & James N. Miller, Brookings: "While it is true that U.S. military spending far exceeds all other nations, including rivals China and Russia, James Miller and Michael O'Hanlon note that defense spending is lower as a percent of GDP than it was during much of the Cold War and in the late 2000s."

Rethinking the Amphibious Task Force:
Digital Interoperability and the Transformation of USMC Aviation
By Robbin Laird, SLD.info: “With the transformation of Marine Corps Aviation, the older notion of the ARG-MEU is being replaced by a much more flexible concept of the amphibious task force."

Moor-pedo: A Strategic Weapon to Re-shape Naval Conflict
By Brian Dulla, USNI Blog: “Nearly every mine warfare article or presentation starts off with the same sentence: “Naval mines have sunk or damaged more ships since the end of World War II than all other weapons combined.” This rhetoric, while true, has done nothing to sustain a U.S. strategic mining capability."

The U.S. Army’s Worst Tradition: Never Ready for the Next War
By James A. Warren, The Daily Beast: "While the U.S. Army was bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, China and Russia were dexterously outflanking American military capabilities."

RUSSIA DOMINATES THE NEW MIDDLE EAST: HERE'S WHY

11/23/2019

Russia's Return To The Middle East
by Jakub Grygiel via The Caravan
The reinsertion of Russia into the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East is one of the big stories of the past decade. Although Russia’s recueillement after 1991 resulted in its effective disappearance from the Middle East, her presence in the region is of course not a new reality in history. Tsars and Soviet leaders pushed their military might and political influence into the region for the last three centuries, clashing with various great powers, from the Ottoman sultanate to the British empire and the United States. But the speed at which the current Russian advance has occurred is surprising and troubling. Moscow has inserted an enormous level of instability and unpredictability to the already murky local power dynamics.

What Happens When Tactics Take Primacy over Strategy?
By Robert Cassidy, Modern War Instiute: "In most of the wars since World War II, American senior civilian and military leaders have exhibited an aptitude for tactics and an inaptitude for strategy. Both strategy and war are hard. But war without strategy is violence without reason."

The Middle East In An Era Of Great Power Competition
by A. Wess Mitchell via The Caravan
In 1920, a young Winston Churchill wrote a memorandum to the Cabinet outlining his concerns about British policy in the Middle East. Britain was, he wrote, “simultaneously out of sympathy with all the four powers exercising local influence.” The Arabs, erstwhile allies in the war, were already unhappy with the emerging postwar settlement. The defeated Turks, Britain’s traditional regional ally, were resentful and looking for new partners. The Russians, under new Bolshevik leadership, were skillfully courting Turkey and Persia. And the Greeks wanted greater British backing against Turkey.

New Terrorism in the Wake of Withdrawal
By Faith Stewart, RealClearDefense: "The last three American presidential elections have emphasized a commitment to “bringing troops home” and bringing an end to “endless wars.” While the sentiment is well intentioned, it is at best misinformed and at worst intellectually dishonest."

So Long As Iran Dominates the Middle East, a New Baghdadi Will Rise
By Tzvi Kahn, The Hill: "Iran’s efforts to achieve hegemony in the Middle East have entailed the brutal suppression of Sunni Arab populations. In Syria, the relentless atrocities of the Assad regime reflected those of ISIS itself. In Iraq, a pro-Tehran government marginalized Sunni Arabs and persecuted their leaders."

Is Russia the Middle East’s New Hegemon?
By Shlomo Ben-Ami, The Strategist (ASPI): “Brain wave-reading threat detectors can dramatically increase a soldier’s ability to spot danger.”

Moscow Showcases Breakthrough in Automated Command and Control
By Roger McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "The importance of this development cannot be underestimated, as it places the Russian military decision-making process and automated C2 beyond the existing capabilities of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) militaries."

Avoiding the Charge of the Light Brigade Against China
By Mike Pietrucha, War on the Rocks: “The Charge of the Light Brigade” provides a classic example of the subordination of military skill in favor of courage and stubbornness, seasoned with a generous measure of poor leadership and a dash of sheer chaos."

Russia’s Black Sea Dominance Strategy—A Blend of Military and Civilian Assets
By Yuri Lapaiev, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "Besides improving its naval power, the Kremlin has tested various other means of exerting pressure in the Black Sea. One of these methods has been the periodic blocking of expansive maritime areas for allegedly military exercises."

The Great Game in the South Pacific
By Graeme Dunk, The Strategist (ASPI): "The Great Game was played by Great Britain and Russia throughout the 19th century and reflected the two powers’ political and strategic jostling for influence across Central Asia. It was essentially about geographic positioning, and a 21st-century version is now being played in the South Pacific."

REVOLUTIONARY TOTAL WAR BEATS A.I AND QUANTUM SUPREMACY & WHY '73 ISRAELI WAR MATTERS

11/17/2019

AI and Quantum Supremacy Will Not Defeat Revolutionary Warfare
By Nathaniel L. Moir, RealClearDefense: "Undeniably, technological innovations have shaped warfare throughout history as they will in the future. However, as we cannot rely only on tactical and operational skill ..."

Today, military analysts are struggling to understand how the digital era’s new technology will transform warfare. In a new AEI report, Kenneth Pollack claims that it is dangerous to assume that the US will succeed in future conflicts simply because it is leading the information revolution. And it is equally dangerous to assume that future warfighting will coordinate with American military practices. The key to understanding how militaries will perform is less about the new technology they will acquire and more about how societal factors will shape militaries and their approaches to that technology. Read the full report here.

Talk to any Pentagon official these days and they'll raise two big issues: the peak in defense spending and the threat that China poses to our American way of life. In a new Defense One op-ed, Mackenzie Eaglen explains that while defense spending has been advertised for years, there is grave concern for a government-wide spending freeze. Defense leaders are struggling to make the case on China to the American people dwelling far beyond the swamp. Whether it be China's influence in Hollywood or its efforts to censor free speech on Twitter, policymakers must make their case to the American people in ways that the people both understand and see happening in their daily lives. Read it here.

The Importance of the Tactical Level: The Arab-Israeli War of 1973
By Lorris Beverelli, Strategy Bridge: “Each level of war is essential to achieve success, and are all equally important. The Arab-Israeli War of 1973 provides an illustration of why the tactical level is essential."

Rethinking Bernard Fall’s Legacy.
The Persistent Relevance of Revolutionary Warfare
By Octavian Manea, Small Wars Journal: "It should be no surprise for readers to recognize that when it came to his analysis of war in Southeast Asia in the 1950s and 1960s, Fall already had a detailed and profound grasp of the Hague and Geneva Conventions and, more broadly, laws governing warfare."

HOW THE MARINE CORPS TALKS LEADERSHIP, ARMY LEARNS ABOUT MOBILE NUKES & KEY PILLARS OF RUSSIAN STRATEGY

11/12/2019

The Four Letters: A Leadership Parable
By Jason Lamb, War on the Rocks: "A recently fired commander wasn't bitter about what had happened, and so decided to offer some help to his replacement. He told the incoming commander, “I left you with four sealed letters. When you're faced with a crisis you can't handle, open the first envelope."

Mobile Nuclear Power Will Enable Army Logistics Revolution
By Dan Christman, War On The Rocks: “The Army needs more and better batteries. But to meet the higher energy needs of the next generation of weapons systems, the Army needs a generator that can dramatically increase the amount of tactical energy. Only nuclear power can provide the energy density necessary to have both a small footprint and a low logistical tail. It is not an exaggeration to say that the deployment of mobile, micro nuclear power plants would revolutionize military logistics for the 21st century.”

How Afghanistan Prepared NATO for Great-Power Competition
By Iain King, Modern War Institute: “Great-power competition is certainly back, but it would be a mistake to regard NATO's enduring operation in Afghanistan as a distraction or a detour—or worse, as a factor that has made great-power competition more likely. Rather, the long war in that country has prepared the West for today's challenges. NATO is now far more able to face down Russia and China precisely because of the tough lessons and battlefield adaptations forced upon it by the long and difficult experience in Afghanistan.”

https://www.amazon.com/Six-Essential-Elements-Leadership-Leatherneck/dp/1612510248/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=six+essentials+of+wesley&qid=1573355713&s=books&sr=1-1

In his view, managers are concerned with the bottom line and making a profit, while leaders are concerned with their followers, their health, their happiness, and their daily lives. Recognition of the sources of leaders is addressed and followed with a discussion of the principles of leadership and the historical traits of a leader. The book covers the essential elements of leadership: care, personality, knowledge, motivation, commitment, and communication with a chapter on each element.

4 Reasons Why Fuel Threatens Our Lethality
By Robert Guerrero, Defense News: "This is a question that keeps me up at night. Are we prepared to defend the homeland and defeat our enemies at any location around the world? If faced against a near-peer or peer competitor, will we have the necessary infrastructure and logistical supply chain to support the lethality we need on the battlefield?"

The Moscow School of Hard Knocks: Key Pillars of Russian Strategy by Michael Kofma

THE 7TH FLEET RISES TO CHINESE BRINKMANSHIP

11/10/2019

FIXING US VULNERABILITY TO CRUISE MISSILES & THE NEW CHARACTER OF WAR AND THE LOST PROMISE OF 1989

11/2/2019

3 ways America can fix its vulnerability to cruise missiles
Bradley Bowman and Andrew Gabel – Defense News

A Century Of Ideas: Hoover's One Hundred Years Of War, Revolution, And Peace
via The Hoover Centennial
Historians Niall Ferguson and Victor Davis Hanson will discuss the seminal events of the last century—the two World Wars, the Great Depression, the rise and fall of Soviet communism, and the advent of modernism and globalization—and how Hoover Institution scholars, informed by the lessons of history, have interpreted these tragedies and challenges.

The Rise of the Present Unconventional Character of Warfare
By Mike Fowler, Strategy Bridge: "Unconventional war wears down the opponent over time by requiring them to use a disproportionate amount of resources creating the perception of “the improbability of victory or the unacceptable cost” of continuing operations."

Assessing Black Swans and their Pre-Incident Indicators
By Charles Cameron, Divergent Options: "Black Swan Events come as a surprise, have a major effect, and are often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight."

The Lost Promise of 1989
By Mark Leonard, The Strategist (ASPI): "After the collapse of communism in Europe in 1989, many dreamed of building a united and free continent with the European Union at its core. But 30 years later, Europeans have awoken to a new reality."

DOES XI JINPING HAVE A GRAND STRATEGY & EXAMINING THE LOST ART OF OPERATIONAL CRAFT

10/28/2019

The Importance of the Operational Level:
The Ludendorff Offensives of 1918
By Lorris Beverelli, Strategy Bridge: "Each level of war is essential to achieve success, and are all equally important. The Ludendorff Offensives of 1918 provide an illustration of why the operational level is essential."

Jungle Mission
By Nathaniel Moir, War Room: "The idea that going native entails the violent pathology of the Kurtz’s stands in stark contrast with René Riesen’s efforts to support the Bahnar Tribe during the First Indochina War."

Partnerships Are at the Core of Modern Deterrence
By Giedrimas Jeglinskas, RUSI: "How does a state achieve effective deterrence? Lithuania provides an example"

Make China Great Again: Xi’s Truly Grand Strategy by Andrew Erickson

U.S. Military Readiness ‘Marginal’
By Mike Glenn, The Washington Times: "In their “2020 Index of U.S. Military Strength,” Heritage Foundation analysts rate each of the armed services as only “marginal.” They also paint a chilling picture about the rapid military modernization of Russia and China."

The U.S. Army Will Experience Battlefield Surprise--
Here’s How to Prepare Leaders and Organizations to Overcome It
By Jim Greer, Modern War Institute: "On October 6, 1973 the Israel Defense Forces were surprised when the Egyptian and Syrian armed forces commenced what would become known to Israelis as the Yom Kippur War and to Arabs as the October War. The true surprise, though, was not when and how the war commenced."

Success Requires Self Direction
By Albert H. Konetzni Jr., Proceedings: "To continuously improve, organizations and individuals need a game plan."

Global Risks 2035 Update: Decline or New Renaissance?
By Mathew J. Burrows, Atlantic Council: "We must recognize that the old historical rhythm that laid the foundations of the Western liberal order has come to an end."

U.S. Deterrence in the Middle East Is Collapsing
By John Hannah, Foreign Policy: “The withdrawal from Syria is part of a broader pattern of weakness, especially in response to Iran."

CHINA'S GREAT DELUSION CONTINUES

10/23/2019

Strategists in China make a habit of engrossing themselves in history. Betimes ideology tinges the findings they coax from the historical record, as one might expect from citizens of a communist regime—or indeed from human beings, full stop. Yet politics seldom invalidates their analyses of workmanlike topics in tactics, operations, or strategy. These, after all, involve the mechanics of how the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will help Chinese Communist Party (CCP) magnates fulfill their political purposes. Inquiries into martial subjects are mostly apolitical since they cover the how, not the why, and thus are safe for free-range thinkers to explore. For example, PLA analysts seemingly have little trouble setting aside their natural skepticism toward Alfred Thayer Mahan and other Western strategic theorists. They afford Mahan & Co. respect and draw guidance from them despite their entanglement with the imperial legacy that so affronts patriotic Chinese. . . .
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/america-smashed-imperial-japans-navy-leyte-gulf-what-lessons-can-china-learn-89531

China’s Own ‘Great Delusion’
By Elliott Zaagman, the interpreter: "China has turned American hubris on its head – overselling realism and nationalism while ignoring liberalism."

National Security Perils of China's Belt and Road Policy
By Douglas J. Feith & Shaul Chorev, National Institute for Public Policy: "Perhaps the greatest strategic challenge facing the United States now is how to regulate its business and other relations with China in light of President Xi’s aggressive aims and his determination to “fuse” China’s commercial and military interests."

WHY AMERICA LOSES WARS

10/23/2019

Why America Loses Wars
By Adam Wunische, Strategy Bridge: "Reorganizing the military for great power competition and then selecting yet another conflict that requires counterinsurgency and stability operations will leave warfighters unprepared and dangerously exposed, as has happened repeatedly in the 70 years since World War II. Poor political decisions have the potential to undermine any advantageous reorganizing of the military ..."

Kurds Betrayal
By Gil Barndollar, RealClearDefense: "Though Trump appears to have left the Kurds in a particularly peremptory and callous manner, the real issue is the way in which America habitually acquires, arms, and then abandons partners of convenience"

Reimagining World Politics: The Longer View of an American 'Victory'
By Louis René Beres, Small Wars Journal: "Everyone knows that the world-situation in which we live is not a final one."-- Karl Jaspers, Man in the Modern Age (1951); At first glance, the main argument here may appear counter-intuitive. It suggests that the United States should become less concerned about achieving any future military victories than optimizing its overall national security. Such a sensible argument would already have appeared orthodox to Carl von Clausewitz."

Military Involvement in Post-Conflict Peace Negotiations
By Miranda Melcher, Defence-in-Depth: " There is a wealth of literature on the best methods to achieve buy-in among key stakeholders in post-civil conflict peace negotiations. To date, however, little academic research has focused specifically on the role that military officers can play in peace negotiations."

A CHINESE-RUSSIAN ALLIANCE BEGINNING & US DEVELOPMENT IN AIR-TO-AIR MISSILES WITH CHINA

10/22/2019

The Russo-Chinese Alliance Emerges
By Stephen Blank, The Hill: "While the media remain preoccupied with the Syria crisis and the impeachment inquiry, equally if not more consequential events are happening elsewhere that deserve America's urgent attention."

Russian Top Brass Gain Greater Political Weight
By Pavel K. Baev, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “The Grom 2019 exercise of Russian strategic forces last week (October 15–17) received limited media attention, which was overwhelmed by the escalation of the Syrian calamity (see EDM, October 17) and the continuation of the Brexit drama. But this year’s Grom maneuvers were, in fact, unprecedented in both their scale and intensity."

Russia as an Asia Pacific Power:
The Perspective of Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan
By Robbin Laird, SLDinfo: "In the shifting narrative of Vladimir Putin as the leader of Russia, over time he has downplayed Russia’s modernization engaged with the West to shaping a Euro-Asian perspective and promoting the concept of Russia as a unique Eur-Asian power."

Will America's Next Air-to-Air Missile Match Up to China's?
By Douglas Barrie, Defense One: "The U.S. military, and its Air Force in particular, invests in and places considerable store by superior technology to prevail against peer rivals. The service is also disinclined to allow its near-allies to field capabilities it does not also have access to."

HARD CHOICES FOR THE ARMY, AMERICA IN AFGHANISTAN & THE LOST ART OF EXITING A WAR

10/21/2019

The Hard Choices That Will Define the Army of Tomorrow (and Beyond)
By John Amble, Modern War Institute: "Building a force of a particular size and with a particular capability mix is already challenging—recruitment goals can be hard to meet and getting the most out of a bureaucratic acquisition system is itself a challenge. But it’s made even more so when these challenges are overlaid with the broader problem of forecasting what the future battlefield will look like so that end strength and capabilities match the demands that a coming conflict will make."

America in Afghanistan
By Carter Malkasian, Strategy Bridge: "Dorani brings an Afghan perspective to the debates that have played out in Washington. The major question he explores is: How did U.S. policy fail in stabilizing Afghanistan?"

The Lost Art of Exiting a War
By Adam Wunische, War on the Rocks: "The best way to ensure a speedy exit from a war is to have never intervened in the first place. The second-best option is to have an exit strategy"

Unstable at Speed: Hypersonics and Arms Control
By Douglas Barrie, IISS: "China’s DF-17 is likely to be the first hypersonic boost-glide system to enter military service, but other hypersonic weapons will soon follow, both unpowered and powered. If the proliferation of such systems and its impact are to be managed, arms-control measures will be needed. However, demanding enough within a stable security architecture, arms control is far more difficult when the supporting structures are already collapsing, as shown by the failure of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty; arguably it also becomes the more valuable."

Responding to North Vietnam’s 1973 Violations of the Paris Peace Accords
By Timothy Heck, Divergent Options: "This article summarizes some of the options presented by U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, and his Washington Special Actions Group (WSAG), to U.S. President Richard Nixon to address North Vietnamese violations of the Paris Peace Accords in the spring of 1973."

mackinder's nightmare & EURASIA'S GREAT GAME

10/11/2019

Claude Berube writes: It will be the human element — knowledge, analytical capability, and ingenuity in the naval intelligence community — that guides us to victory, defeat, or stalemate as it has since wars were first fought. That is why we must reassess how time is best spent for analysts, what extraneous collateral functions that have no inherent war-fighting purpose can be eliminated, and how to re-invest in education and training that is geared toward war-fighting. We must recognize the rules of the naval intelligence game. – War on the Rocks

Incumbent Raytheon will build the U.S. Army’s new missile defense radar to replace the Patriot air and missile defense system’s current radar as part of the service’s future Integrated Air and Missile Defense System. – Defense News

U.S. Army Receives First Delivery of Israeli-Made Active Protection System
Bradley Bowman and Andrew Gabel – FDD Policy Brief

Mackinder’s nightmare: Part 1
Colin Dueck | Foreign Policy Research Institute

Mackinder’s nightmare: Part 2
Colin Dueck | Foreign Policy Research Institute

Sovereignty is no solution
Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest

Eurasia's Great Game: India, Japan and Europe Play to Putin's Needs
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, October 11, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Eurasia’s Great Game is anything but simple and straightforward. A burgeoning alliance between China and Russia that at least for now is relegating potential differences between the two powers to the sidelines has sparked a complex geopolitical dance of its own.
Continue to full article ->

WHEN THE OCEANS BECOME TRANSPARENT; NEW INTERCEPTORS & SPACE BASED HYPERSONICS

10/10/2019

If the Oceans Become Transparent
By Zachary Kallenborn, Proceedings: "Imagine a world in which the oceans hide nothing. Cheap sensors are deployed all across and below the water. Swarms of unmanned undersea, surface, and aerial vehicles rove in search of adversaries.”

Inside the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s Secret Next Generation Interceptor
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "Earlier this year, the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency determined that a planned upgrade to the nation’s defense against long-range North Korean missiles wasn’t going to work."

The Data Challenge of Space-Based Hypersonics Defense
By Nathan Strout, C4ISRNET: “Managing data is the biggest challenge to developing a new space-based sensor layer that would help detect hypersonic weapons."

CHINESE PARADE DEMONSTRATES EROSION OF US SUPREMACY & RUSSIA TESTS THE S500 IN SYRIA

10/4/2019

Did China Just Announce End of U.S. Primacy in the Pacific?
By Scott Ritter, The American Conservative: "For decades, the United States has taken China's ballistic missile capability for granted, assessing it as a low-capability force with limited regional impact and virtually no strategic value. But on October 1, during a massive military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC), Beijing put the U.S., and the world, on notice that this assessment was no longer valid."

Bloomberg’s Leonid Bershidsky: Putin’s Russia Is a Middle Eastern country

Why China’s Big Military Parade Is Nothing to Be Afraid Of
By Craig Hooper, Forbes: "Excessive Western pearl-clutching over new Chinese military technology is exactly what the Chinese regime wanted"

Chinese Military Parade Highlights Erosion of U.S. Military Supremacy
Bradley Bowman | CMPP Senior DirectorAndrew Gabel | Research Analyst

Russia tests new S-500 missile system in Syria
Russia has tested its new S-500 surface-to-air/anti-ballistic missile system in Syria, Russian media reported today. The pro-government Izvestia newspaper reported the tests discovered "some issues with certain elements of the S-500," but they were "quickly fixed" and the missile defense system is now seen by Russia's Defense Ministry as fully functional. The ministry had earlier said the system wouldn't be tested until 2020.
The S-500 Prometey is believed to have a range of 600 kilometers (373 miles). Unofficial reports also said that it will be capable of targeting up to 10 ballistic missiles at once. Russia considers the S-500 to be a rival to the US-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD).
Read More
teletrader.com

China unveils drones, missiles and hypersonic glide vehicle at military parade
(Defense News) China has showcased new types of missiles and unmanned platforms for the first time at a military parade in its capital on Oct. 1 to mark the 70th anniversary of its founding.

HOW US ADVERSARIES DIFFER ON INFORMATION WARFARE & CHINA IS THE NEW COLD WAR

9/27/2019

China and Russia Aren’t the Same When It Comes to Information Warfare
By Jake Wallis, The Strategist (ASPI): "China hasn’t tended to resort to the kind of direct, disruptive approach to influence international social media audiences that we’ve come to know from Russia. It has been effective in employing a holistic approach in which language and messaging are used in tandem with other elements of statecraft, including diplomatic, military and economic efforts."

Information Warfare and Neuro-Weaponry
By Zac Rogers, The Strategist (ASPI): "The insights of the cognitive neurosciences over the past two decades have been rich and enlightening. Many of them will be used in pursuit of furthering human wellbeing. But many, of course, will be employed in the everchanging means by which human beings make war."

The U.S.-China Rivalry as Seen in the Cold War’s Rear-View Mirror
By Ian Li, Strategy Bridge: "The past is, of course, no crystal ball to the future, but a close study of history nonetheless cultivates a sense of perspective one can use to interpret the present and anticipate the possibilities of what is to come. The Cold War therefore serves as a rear-view mirror of sorts, helping to contextualise current developments while informing the decisions to be made."

NOTES FROM SUN TZU, CHINA WANTS TO CONTROL THESE 2 WATER WAYS & A LOOK AT IRANIAN CRUISE MISSILES

9/21/2019

Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic
By John F. Sullivan, The Atlantic: “The 2,400 intervening years of Chinese strategic writing and history between Sun and Mao—let alone the centuries preceding Sun Tzu—remain an unexamined black box."

Under the Radar, Iran's Cruise Missile Capabilities Advance by Shahryar Pasandideh

CHINA:
China's Military Wants to Control These 2 Waterways in East Asia
By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: “China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) over the past four years has been stepping up the operational tempo of military exercises around two strategically pivotal waterways—the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait—that guard the exit from or entry into the China Seas."
CHINA:
China Unveils Supersonic Spy Drone During Parade Rehearsal
By Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post: “The photos, which have prompted discussion among military enthusiasts, show at least two types of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) – identified as the DR-8 or Wuzhen 8, and the Sharp Sword stealth attack drone."

ISRAEL GETS A NAVY: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS & WHY 3 MATTERS FOR THE MARINES

9/18/2019

The Strategic Implications of Israel's Turn to the Sea by Ehud Eiran and Aviad Rubin

Integrating National Defense and Security Strategies to Win Complex Wars
By Thomas A. Drohan, Small Wars Journal: “To win complex wars, we need to have better strategies than those of our opponents."

Dropping DIMEs:
Leveraging All Elements of National Power on the Multi-Domain Battlefield
By Brandon Morgan, Modern War Institute: “... since the unconditional surrenders of Germany and Japan in 1945, the world has iteratively progressed to an era where US competitors and peer adversaries have been able to establish a complex of integrated air defenses, cyber, rocket, drone, informational, proxy forces, and nuclear fires. This makes unconditional surrender increasingly difficult to coerce and massive, land-based thrusts deep into the enemy’s political capital extremely risky—and thus irrelevant as a military planning factor to achieve success in great-power conflict."

15 Years After the Iraq War's Deadliest Battle, Marines Fight to Save Their Comrades
By Gina Harkins, Military.com: "Operation Phantom Fury, the second chapter of the fight to retake Fallujah from Iraqi insurgents, will forever be known to Marines. It was the service's bloodiest urban combat since the Vietnam War's Hue City, and incredible examples of combat heroism and famous images of brotherhood emerged from the fight."

The U.S. Marine Corps Uses the 'Rule of 3' to Organize Almost Everything
By Bill Murphy Jr., Inc.: " It all started with a copy of Inc. magazine that my dad handed me back in 1998."

How many Marines does it take to make an expeditionary base?
(Marine Corps Times) The future of new formations and how the Marine Corps is going to fight inside the enemy’s zone is being determined now.

THE STORY OF JOINTNESS & REVIEW OF US ACHIEVEMENTS AT WAR: THE 9/11 STORY

9/11/2019

Horns of a Dilemma: Counter-Terrorism Since 9/11 by John Brennan, Admiral William H. McRaven, Farah Pandith, Paul Pope, and Nicholas Rasmussen

In Search of a 21st-Century Joint Warfighting Concept by Tom Greenwood and Pat Savage

Erdogan Doesn’t Want Nukes, He Wants to Blow Up the System by Aaron Stein

Another unhappy 9/11 anniversary
We continue to fight erratically and without a coherent global strategy.
Clifford D. May | Founder & President

WHAT RUSSIA IS LEARNING ABOUT ITSELF AND MODERN WAR FROM SYRIA

9/5/2019

ASIA TIMES

Russia's Hypersonic Nukes Exploit U.S. Vulnerability
By Bishop Garrison & Preston Lann, RealClearDefense: “DoD’s hypersonic weapons program currently suffers from large disparities in research and budget between its offensive and defensive capabilities development."

Russia’s Armed Forces Pursue High-Precision Strike Capability
By Roger McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Russia’s Armed Forces continue to introduce and develop high-technology approaches to modern warfare, partly reflecting the ongoing modernization process and also lessons drawn from operations in Syria."

US wargames to try out concepts for fighting China, Russia
(Defense One) A series of September and November wargames led by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff will evaluate new battle plans for fighting China and Russia, Pentagon officials say.

THE MAKERS OF ANCIENT STRATEGY

8/25/2019

4 intel challenges from a former Central Command leader
(C4ISRNET) Intelligence organizations have increased their ability to collect intelligence in recent years, but significant work remains before that intelligence is useful for U.S. Central Command and the war fighter.

https://www.amazon.com/Makers-Ancient-Strategy-Persian-Wars-ebook/dp/B003NX6KPA/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Makers+of+Ancient+Strategy&qid=1566692404&s=digital-text&sr=1-1

SOUTH KOREA ENDS COALITION PARTNERSHIP WITH JAPAN: HOW CHINA AND NORTH KOREA WIN

8/23/2019

ASIA TIMES

South Korea’s decision to scrap a key intelligence-sharing pact with Japan has far-reaching geopolitical implications and shows the two neighbours are still struggling to come to terms with a bloody history. Here are five things to know about the decision. – Agence France –Presse

ROBERT KAPLAN'S ROCKIES SHAPE THE US ABROAD & THUCYDIDES AND THE TALIBAN

8/22/2019

U.S.-Taliban Negotiations: How to Avoid Rushing to Failure
By James Dobbins, Robert P. Finn, Ronald E. Neumann, William Wood, John Negroponte, Earl Anthony Wayne, Ryan Crocker, James Cunningham & Hugo Llorens, Atlantic Council: "A few critical guard rails stand out in order to avoid the risk of Afghanistan becoming a new center of terrorism harboring groups dedicated to attacking the United States and to avoid betraying our own values by depriving Afghans of the chance to determine their own future."

Great Power Competition and Relative Advantage:
Lessons from Thucydides for U.S. Strategic Thinkers
By Carsten Schmiedl, Small Wars Journal: "What are the limits of a security strategy predicated on relative advantage, and what can be done to mitigate them?"

As U.S. outlines draft Taliban deal, Pentagon chief provides few details
(Reuters) U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Wednesday he would limit his comments on talks between the United States and Taliban as negotiations were still ongoing “in some ways,” even as details of a draft deal have been publicly announced by President Donald Trump and a senior U.S. diplomat.

Taliban Fragmentation: A Figment of Your Imagination? by Andrew Watkins

We must understand both the can-do spirit of America and the restraints imposed by the realities of a harsh landscape that won’t yield to mere optimism. Read More »

NEW LEADERSHIP FOR MISSILE DEFENSE & US DRIVES NAIL IN RUSSIAN COFFIN (INF TREATY)

8/21/2019

What Happens After the INF Treaty?
By John Woodworth, Defense One: "Deterrence and arms control have long shaped U.S. national security policy. A negotiator of the 1987 agreement asks: What now?"

Dynetics, Raytheon producing glide bodies for hypersonic weapon prototypes
(UPI) Raytheon said Tuesday it will work to enhance the U.S. Army's hypersonic weapon glide body, days after Dynetics was awarded a contract to build at least 20 common missile bodies.

New U.S. Missile Defense Agency Boss Reveals His Goals
By Jen Judson, Defense News: "The new director will have to guide the agency through a series of major decisions in the coming years —from refining its approach to a global, layered missile defense, to tackling advanced threats like hypersonic missiles, upgrading homeland defense to protect against, ballistic missiles, to designing, developing and initiating a space-based sensor layer, just to name a few."

U.S. Conducts 1st Post-INF Ground Launched Tomahawk Test
By Oriana Pawlyk, Military.com: "The Pentagon says it has successfully tested a new ground-launched cruise missile just weeks after the U.S. severed the decades-old Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, known as the INF."

The Army is nearing a decision on who will build its Lower-Tier Air-and-Missile Defense Sensor, or LTAMDS, which will provide the sensing capability for the future Integrated Air-and-Missile Defense System the service is developing. – Defense News

Russia and China accused the United States on Tuesday of stoking military tensions by testing a ground-launched cruise missile, but the foreign ministry in Moscow said it would not be drawn into an arms race. – Reuters

A pair of recent missile tests – by Russia in near Arkhangelsk and by the U.S. off the coast of California – indicate the race among nations to create a wide range of capabilities is speeding up, a missile defense expert told USNI News. – USNI News

For the past few weeks an innocent-looking white executive jet has been taking off from the Al Dhafra Air Base in Abu Dhabi, cruising for hours in the airspace above the Persian Gulf. […]This is not an ordinary executive jet, but an advanced surveillance aircraft owned by the United Arab Emirates, whose purpose is to gather electronic intelligence – and one of its targets is Iran. – Haaretz

IRAN:
Iran Unveils New Missile Defense System
From Al-Monitor: "Marking Defense Industry Day, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani unveiled a new defense missile system and talked about the conflict between Iran and the United States."

Martin Faga writes: The competing U.S. launch providers offer the Air Force a spectacular choice of innovation: new rocket engines and motors; a wide range of rocket sizes; futuristic, reusable, liquid-fueled rockets; and elegantly simple, one-time, solid-fuel rockets — all at significantly lower prices than today. This can be a procurement success story that will capstone the Air Force’s magnificent, 16-year record of 115 successful launches of mission-critical national security satellites. – Defense News

Nuclear gravity bomb and warhead upgrades face new delays
(Defense News) The United States’ B61-12 nuclear gravity bomb may come in as much as 18 months late, with the W88 submarine-launched ballistic missile warhead facing a shorter delay, a top National Nuclear Security Administration official confirmed Wednesday.

GREAT POWER DOCUMENT.pdf
File Size:	2346 kb
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GREAT POWER COMPETITION EXAMINED

Dr. Colin S. Gray

Summary of His Life's Work on Strategy.pdf
File Size:	301 kb
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GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS

ATLAS PRO YOUTUBE

DOUGLAS BARRIE: SPACE DEFENSE

THOMAS BUSSING: RAYTHEON MISSILE DEFENSE, STRATEGIEST

JAMES ACTON: NUCLEAR MISSILE DEFENSE

DR. MICHAEL PILLSBURY

HENRY ROWEN
File Size:	78 kb
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CHARLES WOLF JR.
File Size:	665 kb
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ANDREW MASHALL 'YODA'
File Size:	1471 kb
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AMERICA NEEDS NEW ALLIANCES

why_america_needs_new_alliances_-_wsj.pdf
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POLYBIUS & ANCIENT GRAND STRATEGY
File Size:	2040 kb
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CENTER FOR POLITICAL & MILITARY POWER

SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA ANYMORE

SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA
File Size:	285 kb
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THE QURAN & MORAL STRATEGY FOR THE LONG WAR

WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS

WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS
File Size:	4995 kb
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THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE PELOPONNESIAN WAR

WHAT HAPPENED DURING PELOPONNESIAN WAR
File Size:	547 kb
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THUCYDIDES TRAP IS GREAT POWER COMPETITION

THUCYDIDES TRAP = GREAT POWER COMPETITION
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CENTER STRATEGIC, BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS: U.S. GRAND STRATEGY

DAVID P. GOLDMAN COLUMN ASIA TIMES

HOW BEST TO UNDERSTAND U.S. - CHINA RELATIONS

STRATEGY BRIDGE

Winning World War IV David P. Goldman.pdf
File Size:	4315 kb
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THE NEW ASIAN OBSERVER

Tweets by WilliamHolland

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