Beijing’s grand strategy: A Sino-centric order
Dan Blumenthal | Jewish Policy Center
While China poses a formidable challenge to US global leadership, the Chinese Communist Party’s near-constant political purges, darker economic prospects, and demographic problems mean the US still has a chance to deny the hegemony over Asia sought by Xi Jinping and build an affirmative alternative to Sino-centrality.
Full Story

The economic and security implications of China’s activities in the South China Sea

Pacific Century: What's In Store For Asia In 2022?
interview with Michael R. Auslin, Derek Mitchell, Dan Twining via The Pacific Century
Predictions for the Indo-Pacific by the heads of the International Republic Institute and the National Democratic Institute.

Wrapping up 2021 and looking forward to 2022 with the Breaking Defense team

Islamist Terrorism Flourishing Under the Taliban

China’s Sharp Economic Slowdown Threatens to Constrain Xi in 2022

As China Pursues Nuclear Arms Buildup, Biden Opts for Debate at United NationsBy BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | January 3, 2022
https://www.nysun.com/national/as-china-pursues-nuclear-arms-buildup-biden-opts/91855/

The most important number for China policy
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
The $780 billion increase in American spending on Chinese stocks and bonds since 2016 represents a miserable policy failure that dwarfs the impact of the US-China trade war.
Full Story

​Beijing's top arms controller insists China is not "dramatically expanding" its nuclear capabilities, despite recent reporting that suggests otherwise, including from the Pentagon in November (PDF). The remarks come from China's Fu Cong, who is in charge of the Foreign Ministry's arms control department.

​Iran’s reserve of last resort: Uncovering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces order of battle

The empires strike back  
​America is threatened by neo-imperialists

A Strategy to Counter Chinese Influence Operations
By Connor Fiddler, RealClearDefense: “Only recently has the U.S. government started to dedicate more resources to countering FIO. However, the response has been insufficient.” ​

Xi and Putin’s Summit for Autocracy

Jihadist attacks flow into littoral West Africa

CHINA, RUSSIA:
Here Are the Hypersonic Weapons Russia and China Have in Service
By Jane Doe, The Diplomat: “Currently, only two nations possess operational hypersonic weapons, China and Russia.”

Snag in the $23 Billion Arms Deal with the UAE Spells a Dilemma for Biden,” by Benny Avni

Guelzo’s biography of Lee is ultimately a defense of the modern nation-state that emerged in the nineteenth century and replaced the federal union.
READ MORE ›

Explainer: The Islamic State In 2021
by Cole Bunzel via Wilson Center
What is the status of ISIS in the Middle East and North Africa at the end of 2021? Which branches or affiliates were the most active? Which the least active? What kind of attacks or activities has ISIS been carrying out? How have trendlines changed? And why?

What To Expect When You’re Expecting A National Defense Strategy
Thomas Spoehr, Bradley Bowman, Bryan Clark and Mackenzie Eaglen — War on the Rocks
In July, Rear Adm. Mike Studeman, director of intelligence for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned that “it’s only a matter of time” until China resorts to military force and suggested that U.S. forces are not ready for that “very bad day.” Meanwhile, Russia continues to maneuver its forces aggressively on NATO’s eastern flank, Iran inches toward a nuclear weapons capability, North Korea builds its missile arsenal, and the Taliban has taken control of Afghanistan. The new National Defense Strategy that the Biden administration is writing should reckon with these challenges and the ramifications of rapidly expanding global threats. Read more

The Taliban Is Using the Doha Accord to Protect Al-Qaeda
​That's one of many problems with ‘over the horizon’ counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan

Will Sistani be the Last Legend? The Challenge of Succession and the Future of the Marj’aiyyah  Summer 2021 Issue

Since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Sistani in Najaf has become a focal point not only for Shi’a in Iraq, but for the entire region. Sistani is now 91 years old and the question of succession is a central one — one that concerns not only Shi’a Muslims, but the wider Middle East as well. This paper aims to shed light on the future of the religious authority in the Shi’a world based on the unavoidable change after Sistani.
Read paper

Beyond AUKUS: 5 practical recommendation
Zack Cooper | AEIdeas
Since the Australia–United Kingdom–United States (AUKUS) trilateral security pact was announced, much attention has focused on French frustration with the deal, rather than on the next steps to build on the agreement. Zack Cooper provides five practical recommendations to capitalize on AUKUS's momentum: The US and Australia should move expeditiously to set up a trilateral forum with Indonesia, they should speed up the delivery of new capabilities, and the US should consider sharing B-21 bombers with Australia. The partners should codevelop ground-based missiles with Japan. Lastly, the Joe Biden administration should bring the US back to the trade table. Read More >>

10 years after ‘the pivot’: Still America’s Pacific century?
 Zack Cooper and Adam P. Liff | October 2021

• Asia’s significance to the United States has never been greater, but the past decade has seen a recurring gap between US rhetoric about the region’s importance and actual strategy, policies, budgets, and attention.
  
  
• To get America back on track in Asia, the Biden administration and Congress must prioritize three urgent course corrections: (1) re-centering US strategy on the region as a whole, rather than on China; (2) embracing a positive regional economic agenda; and (3) significantly increasing diplomatic and military resources devoted to the region.
• READ MORE

Beyond AUKUS: 5 practical recommendations

Hits & Misses In Biden’s Interim National Security Guidance
​“Seemingly gone is the naivety of the Obama era” about Russia and China, writes the Heritage Foundation’s Tom Spoehr in this op-ed. But the retired three-star general still sees some worrying woolly-mindedness.

Crisis, Resilience, and American Conservatism
By Peter Berkowitz via RealClearPolitics
​Peter Berkowitz provides an analysis of the appeal of the American conservative movement since the end of the Second World War. He writes that its values of conserving individual freedom, limited government, and traditional morality are ones that large portions of ordinary voters have historically embraced. He argues that while conservatives need to meet the demands of the current moment, including the genuine concerns of working-class Americans hit hard by globalization, the movement should seek primarily to preserve the constitutional order, which is grounded in the principles of unalienable rights and limited government, and requires a citizenry that is educated in the rights and responsibilities of freedom.

The Iranian Nuclear Deal Needs to Be Fixed and Rewritten, Not Just Reviewed
By Russell Berman via The Hill

Policy Briefs: Moderate Islam
Featuring Fouad Ajami via PolicyEd
​Although some say that there is no moderate form of Islam, Fouad Ajami believed in the potential to wrest Islam away from extremism. While radical Islamists have tried to hijack the faith, others, including Saudi jurists, are beginning to understand that the drift toward radicalism is a menace to Muslims around the world.

AFTER THE ARAB SPRING 
Hero of the Month: M. Zuhdi Jasser  by Grégoire Canlorbe 

Is the U.S. Arming an Adversary, China, Intent on Overpowering Us?  by Peter Schweizer 

U.S. Policy Toward Asia
mentioning Michael R. Auslin via Foreign Policy Research Institute
How has U.S. Policy toward Asia come together one month into the Biden Administration? Will President Biden have success rebuilding relationships with the U.S.’s Asian partners, both economically and diplomatically? How will he respond to the recent coup in Myanmar? Join FPRI’s Jaques deLisle and Michael Auslin as they break down U.S. economic ties in Asia, recent events unfolding in the region, and the Biden administration’s attempts to rebuild relations across the Asia-Pacific.

Chinese Technology Platforms Operating In The United States
by Gary P. Corn, Jennifer Daskal, Jack Goldsmith, John C. "Chris" Inglis, Paul Rosenzweig, Samm Sacks, Bruce Schneier, Alex Stamos, Vincent Stewart via Hoover Institution Press
The Trump administration took various steps to effectively ban TikTok, WeChat, and other Chinese-owned apps from operating in the United States, at least in their current forms. The primary justification for doing so was national security. Yet the presence of these apps and related internet platforms presents a range of risks not traditionally associated with national security, including data privacy, freedom of speech, and economic competitiveness, and potential responses raise multiple considerations. This report offers a framework for both assessing and responding to the challenges of Chinese-owned platforms operating in the United States.

The World Goes On While America Sleeps
by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness
While we are busy devouring each other, China is smiling that once-feared American running-dog capitalists have become laughable Keystone Cops.

Why Are Al Qaeda Leaders In Iran?
by Cole Bunzel via Foreign Affairs
What a Prisoner Exchange Reveals About an Unlikely Relationship

Xi Jinping’s Rise Is No Historical Accident
​How 'The Longer Telegram' misunderstands the Chinese Communist Party's quest for power

Washington Cannot Rely on Iran’s Alleged Anti-Nuclear Fatwa

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/424870/it-time-navy-reassess-importance-aircraft-carrier-george-will

https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/01/the-u-s-navy-americas-first-best-strategy

US NAVAL SUPREMACY FOR ASIA

How to Bargain with the Taliban with Barnett Rubin

Defense Strategy and the Empire State of Mind: How Preparing for the Best Can Leave Washington Vulnerable to the Rest by Evan Montgomery

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/is-the-biden-administration-ready-to-fight-chinas-u-n-influence/

THE WEICHERT REPORT

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/why-china-won%E2%80%99t-forget-its-fight-against-imperial-japan-176696

THE NAVAL DIPLOMAT

Russia: Putin Shoots Himself in the Foot
by Judith Bergman  

  The next steps for the Pentagon's AI Hub
(Defense One) Six ways the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center can accelerate the military’s use of AI.

  Defending forward to confront China’s military aims
(RealClear Defense ) The passage of the fiscal year 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) marked the moment the budget finally caught up to a grim geostrategic reality: The capabilities gap between the U.S. and Chinese militaries is shrinking, and fast.

Deciphering Erdogan's seeming pro-West shift in foreign policy
(Al-Monitor) Ankara’s abrupt desire to mend fences with the West appears driven by domestic calculations, but even if its intentions are genuine, it lacks the institutional capacity to pull off such a U-turn.

China may seek to close nuclear gap after US and Russia agree to extend New START treaty
(South China Morning Post) The extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the United States and Russia to 2026 may not only prevent an out-of-control arms race but also gives China an additional five-year buffer period.
 
US admiral calls China’s anti-ship ballistic missiles a ‘destabilising effort’ that may not win a war
(South China Morning Post) A senior US military official said China was “pouring a lot of money” into anti-ship ballistic missiles but it may not help the People’s Liberation Army win a conflict between the two nations.

What’s in a Name? Reimagining Irregular Warfare Activities for Competition by Kevin Bilms

JADC2 May Be Built To Fight The Wrong War
​To compete with China, DoD needs to focus on spoiling Chinese military and paramilitary success at lower levels on the escalation ladder. This is more closely aligned with maneuver warfare concepts like DARPA’s Mosaic Warfare.

Congress, It’s Time For Two-Year Budget Deal: Eaglen At AEI
It will take time for the Biden administration to build its national security and defense strategies. In the absence of a new defense strategy, the most logical route for Congress would be to plan a two-year budget deal that buys back readiness and investment lost to the Budget Control Act.

Biden's Approach to the Indo-Pacific
By Emil Avdaliani, January 13, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: While the new US president is likely to reverse many of Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions, one area likely to remain untouched is the US approach to the Indo-Pacific region. Joe Biden will push for a reinvigorated set of alliances and building of confidence in US power among China’s neighbors. The nascent Trumpian Indo-Pacific strategy will take final shape under Biden.
Continue to full article ->

​Sudanese-Ethiopian relations are deteriorating. Sudanese armed forces have clashed with Ethiopian soldiers and armed Ethiopian farmers, known as shifta, along the Sudanese-Ethiopian border since December. Sudanese forces took advantage of the distraction created by the Tigray conflict in northern Ethiopia to seize disputed territory in the Fashqa triangle in early December.
READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
Civil war is breaking out in Africa’s second largest country 

Claiming to Counter Russia and Iran, Turkey Partners with Both  by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
January 3, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/61920/turkey-partners-with-russia-and-iran

The Six Blind Men and the Elephant: Differing Views on the U.S. Defense Budget by Thomas Spoehr

Indian Army Pivots Toward China with Ajai Shukla
Ethiopian-Sudanese Border Flares Up with Alex de Waal

We Need a Goldwater-Nichols Act for Emerging Technology / John Shanahan,Laura Junor: The 1986 law made joint experience a prerequisite for high rank. We must do the same for technological facility.

The World's Most Important Body of Water / Daniel Yergin: More than most, four men shaped the oft-cited "strategic tensions" over the South China Sea.

Taking on China – Breaking Down the FY21 NDAA

China's global power tops the US? New measures say no
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
Gross domestic product and military spending matter, but so do networks of allies and “resilience.”

The Abraham Accords

The Renewed Western Sahara Conflict and the Abraham Accords
By Col (Res.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen, December 10, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The timing of the unanticipated provocation by the Polisario Front against Morocco could be related to the ongoing diplomatic initiative sponsored by the US for the establishment of full diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel. Several foreign powers have an interest in disrupting the next stages of the Abraham Accords.
Continue to full article ->

ETHIOPIAN CIVIL WAR READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE

Sudan Accuses Ethiopian Troops of Ambush Attack.  The Sudanese Army says its troops were ambushed by Ethiopian forces during a patrol of the country’s borderlands.  ABC News Al Jazeera

Meir Litvak on Iran's Use of Armed Proxies by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
November 20, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61792/meir-litvak-on-iran-use-of-armed-proxies

Greatest threats to Netanyahu come from right
 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has succeeded in eroding the Israeli political left, but in doing so alienated his own right wing as well.

Netanyahu’s main rival in Likud quits party, views premiership

​To save himself, Netanyahu might agree to keep rotation agreement

Egypt mobilizes Gulf, Arab support to end Syrian crisis

Shared interests in Iran, Caucuses push Turkey and Israel closer

Biden embraces the military-industrial complex over civilian control
Timothy P. Carney | Washington Examiner
Joe Biden’s pick for defense secretary embodies two problems with our governance: the revolving door between industry and government and the subtle erosion of civilian control of the military.

Putin is winning Russia’s hybrid war against America
Ivana Stradner and David R. Shedd | NationalReview.com

Remedies for China’s role in the pandemic
John Yoo | Strategika

Hezbollah's Great Diversion  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

China Deliberately Spread The Coronavirus: What Are The Strategic Consequences?
by Gordon G. Chang via Strategika
“It comes from the lab, the lab in Wuhan, and the lab is controlled by the China government,” claimed Dr. Li-Meng Yan, the virologist who fled Hong Kong, in a “Loose Women” interview in September. “This virus is not from nature.”

Managing The Relationship Between The U.S. And Saudi Arabia
by Bernard Haykel via The Caravan
The new Biden administration will encounter a Middle East that is very different from the one President Trump inherited from President Obama in 2017, and nowhere is the change more obvious than in Saudi Arabia.  The kingdom is undergoing a dramatic process of transformation that includes the unprecedented consolidation of power in the hands of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), the adoption of policies of social liberalization focused primarily on youth and women, and the implementation of a plan for economic diversification to lessen dependence on oil revenue.

The Biden Administration Can And Should Rectify America's Failures In Syria
by Mohammed Alaa Ghanem via The Caravan
It has been almost a decade since the Syrian people rose up against the Assad regime, demanding their freedom. While the world was hesitant to support the protestors, malign powers gladly stepped in to help Assad, creating an unmitigated disaster that has devastated Syria and sent shockwaves around the world.

Russia and China team up on the Indian Ocean
Oriana Skylar Mastro | The Lowy Institute
With China and Russia presenting themselves as strong alternative powers, the United States and like-minded countries have to work that much harder to promote sustainable economic development, protect international rules and norms, and ensure peace and security in the region.

The Congressional Budget Office’s menu of defense cuts
Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas

AEI

Reforming the National Security Council to confront the China challenge

Putting Combatant Commanders on a Demand Signal Diet by Mackenzie Eaglen

Strategic Autonomy and U.S.-Indian Relations by Jeff M. Smith 

Army Wants Smaller Brigades, Stronger Divisions & Lots of Robots
By Sydney Freedberg, Breaking Defense: "New technologies and organizations will give soldiers an edge, Maj. Gen. Patrick Donahoe said, but tanks and foot troops will still face brutal close combat."

Autonomy and Defense in the Twenty-First Century
By Steve Blank, Modern War Institute: “Over the last decade, DoD has adopted robotics and unmanned systems, but almost all are “dumb”—pre-programmed or remotely operated—rather than autonomous.” ​

Assessing the Role of Civil Government Agencies in Irregular Warfare
By Damimola Olawuyi, Divergent Options: "Responses to militant non-state actors will be ineffective without a whole of government effort that emphasizes military and nonmilitary interventions in appropriate measures to defeat violent threats, stabilize territories and restore the lives of affected populations."

The Christian Humanism of J.R.R. Tolkien
An Intellectual Father to the End: Edward E. Ericson, Jr.

Mission Impossible?’ Interoperability Across Arab States
Enhancing interoperability across Arab states’ defense systems remains a holy grail that even alliances such as NATO find hard to achieve.

  Make good choices! National security transitions and the policy and process decisions
(War On The Rocks) What’s the likely “second term Trump foreign policy” or “Biden foreign policy agenda?"

Russia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Genuine Threat or Misconception?
By Jason E. Strakes, November 4, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: While government officials and others have alleged a strategy that involves Russian-sponsored security organizations in recent escalations in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, these claims are largely misconceptions. The conventional wisdom fails to recognize these structures as representing alternative security perceptions held by Russia and other participating states rather than traditional NATO-style military alliances.
Continue to full article ->

After our delay in modernizing the nuclear triad, the projected cost is significant and the timeline unyielding. Simultaneously, policymakers must contend with a myriad of complex factors forcing unprecedented integration between conventional and nuclear weapons, note Mackenzie Eaglen and Elaine McCusker in an AEIdeas blog. Hence, we must enable and equip the Nuclear Weapons Council to recommend and oversee the development of nuclear capabilities and security roles between federal departments and services.  Continue here.

The US military walks a tricky line: preparing for war with other great powers while making peacetime efforts to prevent it. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands points out that bracing for conflict with Russia or China is the key to deterrence. However, the Pentagon will not typically be the lead department when it comes to peacetime competition. Success will require contribution to long, indecisive struggles for position and planning for climactic battles if competition gives way to conflict. Read here.

Last week, the Swedish government decided to raise its defense budget by 40 percent over the next five years. Equally important is Sweden’s decision to invest in civil defense, the part of national security focused on ensuring that energy, health care, food provision, and other pillars of daily life function well during a crisis, notes Elisabeth Braw in an AEIdeas blog. Investing in civil defense makes societies stronger to keep themselves safe from subversive attacks on their way of life. Sweden’s decision to double funding civil defense is something that other countries should learn from. Continue here.

In 2021, Washington should take a long, hard look at its military spending and use a bipartisan process to push through the necessary changes. In a National Interest op-ed, John Ferrari argues that a reorientation of US national security priorities can be achieved alongside a modernized military — not at its expense. The solutions however must be the product of a bipartisan consensus that has to emerge quickly after this upcoming election. Learn more here.

If Trump is reelected, Washington will find that it faces a world without the institutions, alliances, and goodwill that have long bolstered US interests, notes Kori Schake in a Foreign Affairs article. However, Republicans have the chance to push for an alternative by strengthening US alliances, rethinking relationships with our adversaries, reconsidering our so-called forever wars, and creating a new trade policy. If Republicans do not wrench foreign policy out of the America First course, this country will find itself alone and facing an international order shielding itself from US influence. Learn more here.

The Chinese people want to send money somewhere Xi Jinping isn’t
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
COVID-19 adds confusion to long-standing credibility problems in China's economic statistics.

The dangerous decline of US diplomacy
Michael Rubin | The National Interest
The dynamics of contemporary American partisanship are corrosive to diplomacy. Gone are the days of broad bipartisan foreign policy consensus and consistency.

China’s aggressive tactics aim to bolster the Communist Party’s legitimacy
Dan Blumenthal and Jakob Urda | The National Interest
China has faced two disasters in 2020 — the coronavirus and historic floods — which exposed its fragilities and created internal unrest. Its response to both was the same: escalating aggression against its neighbors.
 Full Story

 Glimmer of economic light in India
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas

India's Government Is Not Anti-Muslim
By Jagdish N. Singh, September 2, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A general impression has spread across the international media that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, with which India’s current ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is affiliated, is opposed to minorities, Muslims in particular. This is absolutely false.
Continue to full article ->

Pentagon’s latest salvo against China’s growing might: Cold War bombers
(Reuters) America is combining its decades-old bombers with cutting-edge weapons to counter Beijing’s advantage in the waterways off the Chinese coast. The U.S. wants to send a message that Chinese ships and land targets can be threatened at any time.
 
Russian and Chinese military harassment is increasing. Should the US be worried?
(Military.com) Last week, a Russian armored personnel carrier rammed a U.S. Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle in Syria. China test-fired "carrier killer" missiles into the South China Sea. A massive Russian nuclear submarine surfaced off Alaska, and Russia fighters hit the afterburners to come within 100 feet of a B-52 Stratofortress bomber.

China is ahead in ship, missile & air defense tech: DoD report
(Breaking Defense) The Chinese military has already pushed ahead of the US in areas like shipbuilding, missile defense, ballistic and cruise missile construction, the Pentagon warned today in a blunt new assessment.

Why the Pentagon’s Ground-based Midcourse Defense System needs to be upgraded and expanded
(Forbes) In the midst of a global pandemic and hard-fought election season, it is easy to lose sight of the biggest danger to our democracy. The biggest by far is the threat posed by nuclear weapons.

Navy’s new shipbuilding plan likely to lean toward smaller ships, unmanned platforms  https://govmatters.tv/pentagon-to-review-navy-force-structure/

DHS Cyber Storm exercise  https://govmatters.tv/takeaways-from-the-cyber-storm-exercise/

DHS OIG: Outdated tech, software holding mission back   https://govmatters.tv/outdated-legacy-it-systems-at-dhs/

Now, Navy is thinking small: Need a viable path to a 355-ship fleet, which we didn’t have recently.  SecDef Esper has said to go back to the drawing board in fleet design. We have ten operational carrier groups; expect many smaller ships, manned but eventually unmanned. Littoral combat ship: we have only a dozen; should have far above that number.  Lisa Burro Russo {?}: ran an exercise to see the end of the world, anticipated potential wrinkles.  Whatever conflict happens next may involve civilian sphere, not limited to kinetic but will involve cyber—power grid, food and water supply chains.  Emerged confident that they had a handle on most of the [matters].  Christian Bernard, DHS, Ofc of the Inspector-General: govt deals with outdated software; appropriations on a year-to-year basis, but work can't be finished in one year. 

Esper's plans for an even bigger Navy would subtract aircraft carriers and large surface combatants while adding small surface combatants, unmanned ships and submarines, and logistics vessels, according to documents supporting the study groups. More to all that, here.

Reforming Tokyo’s Ballistic Missile Defense is a Priority for Japan’s New Prime Minister
​Suga could mark his first policy success as Japan’s new leader by implementing a robust and comprehensive missile defense plan.

Why skepticism, not China, may be the greatest threat to US Pacific strategy
Craig Singleton – Washington Examiner

Global Business Brief // Marcus Weisgerber: Biden defense predictions; Boeing, Northrop join forces; US F-35s on British carrier, and more

Great power competition heats up in the thawing Arctic, and the US must respond
Bradley Bowman and Maj. Scott D. Adamson -- Defense News
Russia and China have been busy in a rapidly changing Arctic, and America seems to have barely noticed. Focused elsewhere, the U.S. now finds itself ill-prepared to compete in the thawing, resource-rich arena that also offers adversaries avenues of approach to the American homeland. If America is going to compete effectively against Russia and China, Washington must recognize that the competition is playing out in the Arctic too — and act accordingly. Read more

CHINA:
Pentagon Report: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy
By John Grady, USNI News: “China is bent on creating a world-class military that can conduct joint operations across the globe and already boasts the world’s largest navy, according to the Pentagon’s latest annual assessment of the Chinese military."

Deciphering China’s ‘World-class’ Naval Ambitions
By Ryan D. Martinson, Proceedings: "The PLAN’s newest aspiration is to transform itself into a “world-class navy.” The idea of becoming “world class” was not a PLAN invention. Sometime in 2016, China’s head of state Xi Jinping told the PLA to transform itself into a world-class military. This injunction later appeared in Xi’s report at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017, making it the official policy of the Chinese party-state."

Why the Pentagon’s GMD System Needs to Be Upgraded and Expanded
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "In the midst of a global pandemic and hard-fought election season, it is easy to lose sight of the biggest danger to our democracy. The biggest by far is the threat posed by nuclear weapons."

China Rapidly Increasing Nuclear, Naval, and Next-Gen Tech, Pentagon Warns
By Patrick Tucker
The PLA is preparing for modern, networked warfare with more artificial intelligence, warships, and even a space station.

Soldier-Scholar (Pick One): Anti-Intellectualism in the American Military
By James Joyner, War on the Rocks: "Crossing the Great Plains on an expedition to Utah in the 1850s, Maj. Charles A. May searched the wagons in an effort to reduce unnecessary baggage. When he reached the wagons of the light artillery battery, Capt. Henry J. Hunt proudly pointed out the box containing the battery library. “Books,” May exclaimed. “You say books? Whoever heard of books being hauled over the Plains?"

Guam Needs Aegis Ashore
By Shane Praiswater, Defense News: “Mohammed Morsi has been sentenced to 20 years in prison, a former general is head of state, and charges against Hosni Mubarak have been dismissed—it's like 2011 all over again.” ​

How Do You Actually Measure Military Capability?
By Collin Meisel, Jonathan D. Moyer & Sarah Gutberlet, Modern War Institute: ““The ultimate yardstick of national power is military capability.” So declared RAND analysts in a monograph on measuring national power twenty years ago. Yet, no go-to measure of military assets currently exists beyond one-off net assessments of fighting forces, simple comparisons of military spending, or point estimates of firepower that conflate capabilities with combat power."

Civil-Military Lessons from Latin America by David Pion-Berlin and Andrew Ivey   

Report to Congress on Russian Military Doctrine and Strategy
From USNI News: “These documents offer insight into how Russian leaders perceive threats and how Russian military and security policymakers envision the future of conflict."

U.S. Policy Toward Africa: Eight Decades of Realpolitik
By Caleb Slayton, Strategy Bridge: "When Africa might have given the U.S. a clean bill in terms of colonialism, Cohen contends that had early America not been engaged in expanding westward under the Louisiana Purchase or engaged in colonial-type activities in the Philippines, America’s history in Africa could have looked differently."

It is possible, with sustained emphasis, to disentangle from China the supply chains essential to US national security, writes Kori Schake. It isn’t simple, and it isn’t cheap. But America can afford to defend itself, and deepening cooperation with allies will provide the ability to do so.  
READ MORE

https://www.amazon.com/Asias-New-Geopolitics-Reshaping-Indo-Pacific/dp/0817923241

​"Iranian Power Is Not Inevitable, " 1of2: or The Lessons of Mackinder. Ian Morris, Stratfor.com

"...In the last 10,000 years, the world's most developed societies have almost always been in the band of latitudes that Mackinder called Eurasia's "inner rim," running from the Mediterranean to China. Farming was invented in this area, with the Middle East leading the way around 9500 B.C. and the rest of the inner rim following its example over the next several thousand years. Along with farming came cities and governments, which most parts of the inner rim had developed by 500 B.C. Two hundred and fifty years later, the world's first multiethnic empires comprising tens of millions of subjects controlled most of the inner rim.

Because ancient empires could not project their power very far, at any one time the inner rim tended to have four or five regional hegemons, jostling with each other but rarely extending their power into what Mackinder called Eurasia's "outer rim," facing toward the oceans, or its "heartland," far from the seas. However, because Eurasia's inner rim held 75 percent of the world's population and 90 percent of its wealth, its imperial rivalries became the most significant issues in global geopolitics.

The planet's balance of power began to change around 1000 B.C., when pastoral nomads on the steppes — the arid, treeless grasslands running from Manchuria to Hungary — first bred horses able to carry riders for long distances. These horsemen in the Eurasian heartland, far more mobile than the armies of the inner rim empires, were able to plunder almost at will and then gallop away before the imperial infantry could respond.

For the next 2,500 years, Eurasian history was dominated by a struggle between predators from the heartland — Scythians, Huns, Turks and Mongols, to name just a few — and the empires of the inner rim. China and Iran, which had relatively open frontiers along the steppes, were the regions most exposed to devastation, and their ruling dynasties were regularly overthrown by invaders. India and Europe, shielded by mountains and forests, generally suffered less.

The contest between the inner rim and the heartland was eventually overtaken by a new strategic struggle, which pitted the inner rim against the outer, after A.D. 1500. Mackinder labeled this new situation, which still prevailed in his own day, "the Columbian epoch." The great shift was driven by two inventions, both of them pioneered in China but quickly adopted and adapted all along the inner rim. When the new inventions reached Europe, they merged to form a world-conquering package.

The first invention was the gun, which military men gradually improved upon until muskets could be fired fast enough to counter nomadic archers on horseback. In 1500, steppe cavalry could still normally defeat volleying infantry; in 1600, they could sometimes win the same victories. But by 1700, they hardly ever could. After that, riders from the heartland no longer seriously threatened the inner rim.

The second invention was the oceangoing ship, which could fairly reliably sail for thousands of miles. These ships transformed the balance between the inner and outer rims just as decisively as the gun had altered the dynamic between the inner rim and the heartland. Armed with the new ships and guns, outer rim states could now project power farther and strike harder than any civilization before. The Columbian epoch had arrived.

Thanks to their long coastlines, India and the western parts of the Ottoman Empire were the most exposed to outer rim sailors and their guns, while distance and difficulty of access made China and Iran less vulnerable. By 1600, Western Europeans had overrun much of the Americas, built dozens of fortresses around the shores..."

 For more information on Halford Mackinder visit: 
​www.lse.ac.uk/collections/mackinderProgramme/pdf/mackinde... 

China's 'Debt-Trap' Diplomacy with Third-World Nations  by Lawrence A. Franklin  

"Now, PRC Pres. Xi Jinping was being forced by a range of circumstances — a declining economy, the socio-economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic, and a range of natu-ral and demographic disasters and trends — to take precipitate military action before the final window on the path toward global dominance closed for the PRC. "

Five reasons it’s smart to ban Chinese apps
Cleo Paskal — Washington Examiner
Both President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are openly talking about emulating India’s ban on some Chinese mobile phone apps. While this may seem trivial, it is actually a surprisingly effective way to hit back at, and protect from, Chinese economic and strategic aggression. India banned 59 Chinese apps after repeated Chinese aggression, including a border clash that left 20 Indian soldiers dead. What India realized was that apps play an important role in China’s espionage and development of weaponized advanced artificial intelligence technology. Read More

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The World’s Most Dangerous Alliance
Thomas Joscelyn — The Dispatch
On July 8, Xi Jinping spoke with his comrade, Vladimir Putin, by phone. Putin has been one of Xi’s staunchest allies throughout the coronavirus pandemic. And Xi wanted to thank him. The Chinese leader “commended the mutual support and assistance the two countries gave each other at the most trying time of the COVID-19 challenge, an endeavor which added strategic substance to China-Russia relations in the new era,” according to a readout of the call prepared by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Read More

Japan’s rising military
 John Yoo, Michael Auslin, and Taro Kono | "The Pacific Century"
 Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono talks about how the Japanese military has modernized over the past decade and discusses the worsening threats from China and North Korea.

DoD War Games Predict ‘Extremely Destabilizing’ Chinese Military Parity
By Paul McLeary, Breaking Defense: “Worried about America’s eroding dominance at sea, the Pentagon has been running through a series of war games to shake out a plan to stay ahead of the rapid-fire Chinese military modernization effort."

U.S., CHINA:
Can AI Solve the Rare Earths Problem? Chinese and U.S. Researchers Think So
By Patrick Tucker, Defense One: “A research effort funded by China and the U.S. could speed up the discovery of new materials to use in electronics."

https://navaldiplomat.com/

Putin's military has an aging problem. "Moscow has increased its spending on national defense to the highest level since Soviet times," Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation wrote

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-j20-stealth-fighter-jet-into-mass-production-after-upgrade-2020-7

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/34404/big-airfield-expansion-on-wake-island-seen-by-satellite-as-u-s-preps-for-pacific-fight

Proliferant States Continue to Rely on China for Nuclear-Related Equipment
Andrea Stricker | Research Fellow

Asia's New Geopolitics: A Conversation With Michael R. Auslin And Robert D. Kaplan
interview with Michael R. Auslin via Foreign Policy Research Institute
Hoover Institution fellow Michael Auslin discusses his new book, Asia’s New Geopolitics: Essays on Reshaping the Indo-Pacific, which examines key issues transforming the Indo-Pacific and the broader world, including the history of American strategy in Asia, from the eighteenth century through today.

AMAZON

Xi Jinping's Internal Great Wall
quoting Elizabeth Economy via National Interest
Like the Great Wall of generations past, Xi’s Internal Great Wall will continue to keep China behind the rest of the world because a nation that suppresses its own people is not a nation the world can trust to do business fairly.

Winter Is Coming
By James A. Winnefeld Jr., Proceedings: "Extended geopolitical cycles usually end in war. A major test of U.S. power, which may already be under way, could signal the end of the current cycle. Winter is coming, and there is much to do to prepare."

Convoys As Echoes of the Past Part II:
Revisiting the Chessboard Model
By Harrison Schramm, RealClearDefense: “Thinking about objects moving in continuous ‘free space’ is hard; a key innovation of the Chessboard model is to impose a grid structure on the North Atlantic.”

Rushing to Defeat: The Strategic Flaw in Contemporary U.S. Army Thinking
By Christopher Parker, Strategy Bridge: "The United States Army has a problem. As it extricates itself from protracted counterinsurgency and stability operations in Afghanistan and reorients towards large-scale combat operations, the Army has realized its adversaries, namely China and Russia, have adopted a security posture bent on undermining its preferred way of war."

Who Is to Blame for the U.S. Military’s Technology Problem?
By Justin Lynch, Modern War Institute: "If monarchy and oligarchy are rule by the few, and aristocracy and democracy are rule by the best and the many, then bureaucracy, Hannah Arendt tells us, is rule by Nobody."

Strengthening Maritime Capability for a Stronger and More Resilient America
By Mike Stevens, RealClearDefense: “Now is the time to enhance and improve America’s maritime industrial base to meet the challenges today ..."
 
China’s Rise as a Global Power Reaches Its Riskiest Point Yet
By Rodger Baker, Stratfor Worldview: "China has reached a risky point in its international development where its economic and strategic power is perceived as great enough to require a reply, but are not yet strong enough to withstand a concerted counter-challenge."

Huawei is under a lot of pressure. Fresh US sanctions have cut off the Chinese tech company’s access to vital American technology to a greater extent than ever before. Countries and mobile network operators around the world are now questioning whether Huawei will be able to deliver on its 5G promises. And rising anti-China sentiment in India and elsewhere is not helping matters. – CNN
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The Chinese government took steps to boost political policing as a slew of international spats risk sowing domestic unrest, potentially undermining support for the Communist Party. – Bloomberg