Geography & Strategy - CounterStrikeMedia

CHINA'S GREAT DELUSION CONTINUES

10/23/2019

Strategists in China make a habit of engrossing themselves in history. Betimes ideology tinges the findings they coax from the historical record, as one might expect from citizens of a communist regime—or indeed from human beings, full stop. Yet politics seldom invalidates their analyses of workmanlike topics in tactics, operations, or strategy. These, after all, involve the mechanics of how the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will help Chinese Communist Party (CCP) magnates fulfill their political purposes. Inquiries into martial subjects are mostly apolitical since they cover the how, not the why, and thus are safe for free-range thinkers to explore. For example, PLA analysts seemingly have little trouble setting aside their natural skepticism toward Alfred Thayer Mahan and other Western strategic theorists. They afford Mahan & Co. respect and draw guidance from them despite their entanglement with the imperial legacy that so affronts patriotic Chinese. . . .
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/america-smashed-imperial-japans-navy-leyte-gulf-what-lessons-can-china-learn-89531

China’s Own ‘Great Delusion’
By Elliott Zaagman, the interpreter: "China has turned American hubris on its head – overselling realism and nationalism while ignoring liberalism."

National Security Perils of China's Belt and Road Policy
By Douglas J. Feith & Shaul Chorev, National Institute for Public Policy: "Perhaps the greatest strategic challenge facing the United States now is how to regulate its business and other relations with China in light of President Xi’s aggressive aims and his determination to “fuse” China’s commercial and military interests."

WHY AMERICA LOSES WARS

10/23/2019

Why America Loses Wars
By Adam Wunische, Strategy Bridge: "Reorganizing the military for great power competition and then selecting yet another conflict that requires counterinsurgency and stability operations will leave warfighters unprepared and dangerously exposed, as has happened repeatedly in the 70 years since World War II. Poor political decisions have the potential to undermine any advantageous reorganizing of the military ..."

Kurds Betrayal
By Gil Barndollar, RealClearDefense: "Though Trump appears to have left the Kurds in a particularly peremptory and callous manner, the real issue is the way in which America habitually acquires, arms, and then abandons partners of convenience"

Reimagining World Politics: The Longer View of an American 'Victory'
By Louis René Beres, Small Wars Journal: "Everyone knows that the world-situation in which we live is not a final one."-- Karl Jaspers, Man in the Modern Age (1951); At first glance, the main argument here may appear counter-intuitive. It suggests that the United States should become less concerned about achieving any future military victories than optimizing its overall national security. Such a sensible argument would already have appeared orthodox to Carl von Clausewitz."

Military Involvement in Post-Conflict Peace Negotiations
By Miranda Melcher, Defence-in-Depth: " There is a wealth of literature on the best methods to achieve buy-in among key stakeholders in post-civil conflict peace negotiations. To date, however, little academic research has focused specifically on the role that military officers can play in peace negotiations."

A CHINESE-RUSSIAN ALLIANCE BEGINNING & US DEVELOPMENT IN AIR-TO-AIR MISSILES WITH CHINA

10/22/2019

The Russo-Chinese Alliance Emerges
By Stephen Blank, The Hill: "While the media remain preoccupied with the Syria crisis and the impeachment inquiry, equally if not more consequential events are happening elsewhere that deserve America's urgent attention."

Russian Top Brass Gain Greater Political Weight
By Pavel K. Baev, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “The Grom 2019 exercise of Russian strategic forces last week (October 15–17) received limited media attention, which was overwhelmed by the escalation of the Syrian calamity (see EDM, October 17) and the continuation of the Brexit drama. But this year’s Grom maneuvers were, in fact, unprecedented in both their scale and intensity."

Russia as an Asia Pacific Power:
The Perspective of Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan
By Robbin Laird, SLDinfo: "In the shifting narrative of Vladimir Putin as the leader of Russia, over time he has downplayed Russia’s modernization engaged with the West to shaping a Euro-Asian perspective and promoting the concept of Russia as a unique Eur-Asian power."

Will America's Next Air-to-Air Missile Match Up to China's?
By Douglas Barrie, Defense One: "The U.S. military, and its Air Force in particular, invests in and places considerable store by superior technology to prevail against peer rivals. The service is also disinclined to allow its near-allies to field capabilities it does not also have access to."

HARD CHOICES FOR THE ARMY, AMERICA IN AFGHANISTAN & THE LOST ART OF EXITING A WAR

10/21/2019

The Hard Choices That Will Define the Army of Tomorrow (and Beyond)
By John Amble, Modern War Institute: "Building a force of a particular size and with a particular capability mix is already challenging—recruitment goals can be hard to meet and getting the most out of a bureaucratic acquisition system is itself a challenge. But it’s made even more so when these challenges are overlaid with the broader problem of forecasting what the future battlefield will look like so that end strength and capabilities match the demands that a coming conflict will make."

America in Afghanistan
By Carter Malkasian, Strategy Bridge: "Dorani brings an Afghan perspective to the debates that have played out in Washington. The major question he explores is: How did U.S. policy fail in stabilizing Afghanistan?"

The Lost Art of Exiting a War
By Adam Wunische, War on the Rocks: "The best way to ensure a speedy exit from a war is to have never intervened in the first place. The second-best option is to have an exit strategy"

Unstable at Speed: Hypersonics and Arms Control
By Douglas Barrie, IISS: "China’s DF-17 is likely to be the first hypersonic boost-glide system to enter military service, but other hypersonic weapons will soon follow, both unpowered and powered. If the proliferation of such systems and its impact are to be managed, arms-control measures will be needed. However, demanding enough within a stable security architecture, arms control is far more difficult when the supporting structures are already collapsing, as shown by the failure of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty; arguably it also becomes the more valuable."

Responding to North Vietnam’s 1973 Violations of the Paris Peace Accords
By Timothy Heck, Divergent Options: "This article summarizes some of the options presented by U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, and his Washington Special Actions Group (WSAG), to U.S. President Richard Nixon to address North Vietnamese violations of the Paris Peace Accords in the spring of 1973."

mackinder's nightmare & EURASIA'S GREAT GAME

10/11/2019

Claude Berube writes: It will be the human element — knowledge, analytical capability, and ingenuity in the naval intelligence community — that guides us to victory, defeat, or stalemate as it has since wars were first fought. That is why we must reassess how time is best spent for analysts, what extraneous collateral functions that have no inherent war-fighting purpose can be eliminated, and how to re-invest in education and training that is geared toward war-fighting. We must recognize the rules of the naval intelligence game. – War on the Rocks

Incumbent Raytheon will build the U.S. Army’s new missile defense radar to replace the Patriot air and missile defense system’s current radar as part of the service’s future Integrated Air and Missile Defense System. – Defense News

U.S. Army Receives First Delivery of Israeli-Made Active Protection System
Bradley Bowman and Andrew Gabel – FDD Policy Brief

Mackinder’s nightmare: Part 1
Colin Dueck | Foreign Policy Research Institute

Mackinder’s nightmare: Part 2
Colin Dueck | Foreign Policy Research Institute

Sovereignty is no solution
Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest

Eurasia's Great Game: India, Japan and Europe Play to Putin's Needs
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, October 11, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Eurasia’s Great Game is anything but simple and straightforward. A burgeoning alliance between China and Russia that at least for now is relegating potential differences between the two powers to the sidelines has sparked a complex geopolitical dance of its own.
Continue to full article ->

WHEN THE OCEANS BECOME TRANSPARENT; NEW INTERCEPTORS & SPACE BASED HYPERSONICS

10/10/2019

If the Oceans Become Transparent
By Zachary Kallenborn, Proceedings: "Imagine a world in which the oceans hide nothing. Cheap sensors are deployed all across and below the water. Swarms of unmanned undersea, surface, and aerial vehicles rove in search of adversaries.”

Inside the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s Secret Next Generation Interceptor
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "Earlier this year, the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency determined that a planned upgrade to the nation’s defense against long-range North Korean missiles wasn’t going to work."

The Data Challenge of Space-Based Hypersonics Defense
By Nathan Strout, C4ISRNET: “Managing data is the biggest challenge to developing a new space-based sensor layer that would help detect hypersonic weapons."

CHINESE PARADE DEMONSTRATES EROSION OF US SUPREMACY & RUSSIA TESTS THE S500 IN SYRIA

10/4/2019

Did China Just Announce End of U.S. Primacy in the Pacific?
By Scott Ritter, The American Conservative: "For decades, the United States has taken China's ballistic missile capability for granted, assessing it as a low-capability force with limited regional impact and virtually no strategic value. But on October 1, during a massive military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC), Beijing put the U.S., and the world, on notice that this assessment was no longer valid."

Bloomberg’s Leonid Bershidsky: Putin’s Russia Is a Middle Eastern country

Why China’s Big Military Parade Is Nothing to Be Afraid Of
By Craig Hooper, Forbes: "Excessive Western pearl-clutching over new Chinese military technology is exactly what the Chinese regime wanted"

Chinese Military Parade Highlights Erosion of U.S. Military Supremacy
Bradley Bowman | CMPP Senior DirectorAndrew Gabel | Research Analyst

Russia tests new S-500 missile system in Syria
Russia has tested its new S-500 surface-to-air/anti-ballistic missile system in Syria, Russian media reported today. The pro-government Izvestia newspaper reported the tests discovered "some issues with certain elements of the S-500," but they were "quickly fixed" and the missile defense system is now seen by Russia's Defense Ministry as fully functional. The ministry had earlier said the system wouldn't be tested until 2020.
The S-500 Prometey is believed to have a range of 600 kilometers (373 miles). Unofficial reports also said that it will be capable of targeting up to 10 ballistic missiles at once. Russia considers the S-500 to be a rival to the US-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD).
Read More
teletrader.com

China unveils drones, missiles and hypersonic glide vehicle at military parade
(Defense News) China has showcased new types of missiles and unmanned platforms for the first time at a military parade in its capital on Oct. 1 to mark the 70th anniversary of its founding.

HOW US ADVERSARIES DIFFER ON INFORMATION WARFARE & CHINA IS THE NEW COLD WAR

9/27/2019

China and Russia Aren’t the Same When It Comes to Information Warfare
By Jake Wallis, The Strategist (ASPI): "China hasn’t tended to resort to the kind of direct, disruptive approach to influence international social media audiences that we’ve come to know from Russia. It has been effective in employing a holistic approach in which language and messaging are used in tandem with other elements of statecraft, including diplomatic, military and economic efforts."

Information Warfare and Neuro-Weaponry
By Zac Rogers, The Strategist (ASPI): "The insights of the cognitive neurosciences over the past two decades have been rich and enlightening. Many of them will be used in pursuit of furthering human wellbeing. But many, of course, will be employed in the everchanging means by which human beings make war."

The U.S.-China Rivalry as Seen in the Cold War’s Rear-View Mirror
By Ian Li, Strategy Bridge: "The past is, of course, no crystal ball to the future, but a close study of history nonetheless cultivates a sense of perspective one can use to interpret the present and anticipate the possibilities of what is to come. The Cold War therefore serves as a rear-view mirror of sorts, helping to contextualise current developments while informing the decisions to be made."

NOTES FROM SUN TZU, CHINA WANTS TO CONTROL THESE 2 WATER WAYS & A LOOK AT IRANIAN CRUISE MISSILES

9/21/2019

Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic
By John F. Sullivan, The Atlantic: “The 2,400 intervening years of Chinese strategic writing and history between Sun and Mao—let alone the centuries preceding Sun Tzu—remain an unexamined black box."

Under the Radar, Iran's Cruise Missile Capabilities Advance by Shahryar Pasandideh

CHINA:
China's Military Wants to Control These 2 Waterways in East Asia
By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: “China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) over the past four years has been stepping up the operational tempo of military exercises around two strategically pivotal waterways—the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait—that guard the exit from or entry into the China Seas."
CHINA:
China Unveils Supersonic Spy Drone During Parade Rehearsal
By Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post: “The photos, which have prompted discussion among military enthusiasts, show at least two types of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) – identified as the DR-8 or Wuzhen 8, and the Sharp Sword stealth attack drone."

ISRAEL GETS A NAVY: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS & WHY 3 MATTERS FOR THE MARINES

9/18/2019

The Strategic Implications of Israel's Turn to the Sea by Ehud Eiran and Aviad Rubin

Integrating National Defense and Security Strategies to Win Complex Wars
By Thomas A. Drohan, Small Wars Journal: “To win complex wars, we need to have better strategies than those of our opponents."

Dropping DIMEs:
Leveraging All Elements of National Power on the Multi-Domain Battlefield
By Brandon Morgan, Modern War Institute: “... since the unconditional surrenders of Germany and Japan in 1945, the world has iteratively progressed to an era where US competitors and peer adversaries have been able to establish a complex of integrated air defenses, cyber, rocket, drone, informational, proxy forces, and nuclear fires. This makes unconditional surrender increasingly difficult to coerce and massive, land-based thrusts deep into the enemy’s political capital extremely risky—and thus irrelevant as a military planning factor to achieve success in great-power conflict."

15 Years After the Iraq War's Deadliest Battle, Marines Fight to Save Their Comrades
By Gina Harkins, Military.com: "Operation Phantom Fury, the second chapter of the fight to retake Fallujah from Iraqi insurgents, will forever be known to Marines. It was the service's bloodiest urban combat since the Vietnam War's Hue City, and incredible examples of combat heroism and famous images of brotherhood emerged from the fight."

The U.S. Marine Corps Uses the 'Rule of 3' to Organize Almost Everything
By Bill Murphy Jr., Inc.: " It all started with a copy of Inc. magazine that my dad handed me back in 1998."

How many Marines does it take to make an expeditionary base?
(Marine Corps Times) The future of new formations and how the Marine Corps is going to fight inside the enemy’s zone is being determined now.

THE STORY OF JOINTNESS & REVIEW OF US ACHIEVEMENTS AT WAR: THE 9/11 STORY

9/11/2019

Horns of a Dilemma: Counter-Terrorism Since 9/11 by John Brennan, Admiral William H. McRaven, Farah Pandith, Paul Pope, and Nicholas Rasmussen

In Search of a 21st-Century Joint Warfighting Concept by Tom Greenwood and Pat Savage

Erdogan Doesn’t Want Nukes, He Wants to Blow Up the System by Aaron Stein

Another unhappy 9/11 anniversary
We continue to fight erratically and without a coherent global strategy.
Clifford D. May | Founder & President

WHAT RUSSIA IS LEARNING ABOUT ITSELF AND MODERN WAR FROM SYRIA

9/5/2019

ASIA TIMES

Russia's Hypersonic Nukes Exploit U.S. Vulnerability
By Bishop Garrison & Preston Lann, RealClearDefense: “DoD’s hypersonic weapons program currently suffers from large disparities in research and budget between its offensive and defensive capabilities development."

Russia’s Armed Forces Pursue High-Precision Strike Capability
By Roger McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Russia’s Armed Forces continue to introduce and develop high-technology approaches to modern warfare, partly reflecting the ongoing modernization process and also lessons drawn from operations in Syria."

US wargames to try out concepts for fighting China, Russia
(Defense One) A series of September and November wargames led by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff will evaluate new battle plans for fighting China and Russia, Pentagon officials say.

THE MAKERS OF ANCIENT STRATEGY

8/25/2019

4 intel challenges from a former Central Command leader
(C4ISRNET) Intelligence organizations have increased their ability to collect intelligence in recent years, but significant work remains before that intelligence is useful for U.S. Central Command and the war fighter.

https://www.amazon.com/Makers-Ancient-Strategy-Persian-Wars-ebook/dp/B003NX6KPA/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Makers+of+Ancient+Strategy&qid=1566692404&s=digital-text&sr=1-1

SOUTH KOREA ENDS COALITION PARTNERSHIP WITH JAPAN: HOW CHINA AND NORTH KOREA WIN

8/23/2019

ASIA TIMES

South Korea’s decision to scrap a key intelligence-sharing pact with Japan has far-reaching geopolitical implications and shows the two neighbours are still struggling to come to terms with a bloody history. Here are five things to know about the decision. – Agence France –Presse

ROBERT KAPLAN'S ROCKIES SHAPE THE US ABROAD & THUCYDIDES AND THE TALIBAN

8/22/2019

U.S.-Taliban Negotiations: How to Avoid Rushing to Failure
By James Dobbins, Robert P. Finn, Ronald E. Neumann, William Wood, John Negroponte, Earl Anthony Wayne, Ryan Crocker, James Cunningham & Hugo Llorens, Atlantic Council: "A few critical guard rails stand out in order to avoid the risk of Afghanistan becoming a new center of terrorism harboring groups dedicated to attacking the United States and to avoid betraying our own values by depriving Afghans of the chance to determine their own future."

Great Power Competition and Relative Advantage:
Lessons from Thucydides for U.S. Strategic Thinkers
By Carsten Schmiedl, Small Wars Journal: "What are the limits of a security strategy predicated on relative advantage, and what can be done to mitigate them?"

As U.S. outlines draft Taliban deal, Pentagon chief provides few details
(Reuters) U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Wednesday he would limit his comments on talks between the United States and Taliban as negotiations were still ongoing “in some ways,” even as details of a draft deal have been publicly announced by President Donald Trump and a senior U.S. diplomat.

Taliban Fragmentation: A Figment of Your Imagination? by Andrew Watkins

We must understand both the can-do spirit of America and the restraints imposed by the realities of a harsh landscape that won’t yield to mere optimism. Read More »

NEW LEADERSHIP FOR MISSILE DEFENSE & US DRIVES NAIL IN RUSSIAN COFFIN (INF TREATY)

8/21/2019

What Happens After the INF Treaty?
By John Woodworth, Defense One: "Deterrence and arms control have long shaped U.S. national security policy. A negotiator of the 1987 agreement asks: What now?"

Dynetics, Raytheon producing glide bodies for hypersonic weapon prototypes
(UPI) Raytheon said Tuesday it will work to enhance the U.S. Army's hypersonic weapon glide body, days after Dynetics was awarded a contract to build at least 20 common missile bodies.

New U.S. Missile Defense Agency Boss Reveals His Goals
By Jen Judson, Defense News: "The new director will have to guide the agency through a series of major decisions in the coming years —from refining its approach to a global, layered missile defense, to tackling advanced threats like hypersonic missiles, upgrading homeland defense to protect against, ballistic missiles, to designing, developing and initiating a space-based sensor layer, just to name a few."

U.S. Conducts 1st Post-INF Ground Launched Tomahawk Test
By Oriana Pawlyk, Military.com: "The Pentagon says it has successfully tested a new ground-launched cruise missile just weeks after the U.S. severed the decades-old Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, known as the INF."

The Army is nearing a decision on who will build its Lower-Tier Air-and-Missile Defense Sensor, or LTAMDS, which will provide the sensing capability for the future Integrated Air-and-Missile Defense System the service is developing. – Defense News

Russia and China accused the United States on Tuesday of stoking military tensions by testing a ground-launched cruise missile, but the foreign ministry in Moscow said it would not be drawn into an arms race. – Reuters

A pair of recent missile tests – by Russia in near Arkhangelsk and by the U.S. off the coast of California – indicate the race among nations to create a wide range of capabilities is speeding up, a missile defense expert told USNI News. – USNI News

For the past few weeks an innocent-looking white executive jet has been taking off from the Al Dhafra Air Base in Abu Dhabi, cruising for hours in the airspace above the Persian Gulf. […]This is not an ordinary executive jet, but an advanced surveillance aircraft owned by the United Arab Emirates, whose purpose is to gather electronic intelligence – and one of its targets is Iran. – Haaretz

IRAN:
Iran Unveils New Missile Defense System
From Al-Monitor: "Marking Defense Industry Day, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani unveiled a new defense missile system and talked about the conflict between Iran and the United States."

Martin Faga writes: The competing U.S. launch providers offer the Air Force a spectacular choice of innovation: new rocket engines and motors; a wide range of rocket sizes; futuristic, reusable, liquid-fueled rockets; and elegantly simple, one-time, solid-fuel rockets — all at significantly lower prices than today. This can be a procurement success story that will capstone the Air Force’s magnificent, 16-year record of 115 successful launches of mission-critical national security satellites. – Defense News

Nuclear gravity bomb and warhead upgrades face new delays
(Defense News) The United States’ B61-12 nuclear gravity bomb may come in as much as 18 months late, with the W88 submarine-launched ballistic missile warhead facing a shorter delay, a top National Nuclear Security Administration official confirmed Wednesday.

THE FRENCH SAINT OF COUNTER-INSURGENCY: SAINT MARC & A LOOK AT GREAT POWER COMPETITION

7/26/2019

Shapes, Part II: The Shape of Strategy by Mike Pietrucha

The Insurgent Counter-Insurgent: The French Army’s Hero and Some Truths About Modern Warfare by Michael Shurkin

In the Year of the Tiger
By Nathaniel L. Moir, Strategy Bridge: "In a sense, the First Indochina War may appear neglected by historians and political scientists when compared to the far greater amount of studies devoted to the Second Indochina War (1955-1975). Despite these perceptions and the region’s complicated history, the First Indochina War, and anti-French colonial agitation by many Vietnamese before it, is thoroughly studied and represented in work by Vietnamese studies scholars and a small number of American historians.

Political Interference, Strategic Incoherence, and Johnson’s Escalation in Vietnam
By Joseph Stabile, Strategy Bridge: "Ultimately, Johnson’s decision to escalate the war reflected a broader failure of the American foreign policy establishment in which internal divisions prevented a comprehensive understanding of the enemy, leading to years of commitment to a fruitless and destructive war."

DASD Mulroy on Israel and Great Power Competition
Remarks by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Michael (Mick) P. Mulroy to FDD's Center on Military and Political Power

Covert Wars, To What End? by Christopher Preble

The Future of Countering Terrorism: Ideas Not Bullets
By Jason Howk, ClearanceJobs: "In World War II the Germans complained that it was so difficult to fight the Americans because the U.S. commanders didn’t follow their own written doctrine. That isn’t the case with many of our modern enemies."

A LOOK AT "TOP GUN" AT 30 & HOW GROUP THINK PERVADES INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY ESTABLISHMENT AFTER MUMBIA

7/20/2019

Top Gun at 30: A Retrospective from Two Naval Aviators by Greg Malandrino and Jeff McLean

Ten Years After Mumbai, The Group Responsible Is Deadlier Than Ever by Stephan Tankel

THE GREAT DELUSION OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, A NEW REAGAN DOCTRINE FOR CHINA & NEW FORMATIONS FOR SMALL WARS; WHY SMALL WARS ARE FOR FOREVER

7/14/2019

Creating a Culture to Support Mission Command
By Thomas M. Williams, Small Wars Journal: "We say that we want Soldiers who can practice disciplined initiative, who can change the task to meet the purpose. We profess to want shared understanding and teams built on trust (more than rules). We want them to be risk tolerant."

How Many Leaders Can the Navy Afford to Throw Out the Window?
By Andrew C. A. Jampoler, Proceedings: In 1618, in one of the trigger events of the Thirty Years War, infuriated Protestants, fearful that their right to practice their religion was under assault, threw two Catholic aristocrats and their secretary out of a third-floor window of Prague’s Hradčeny Castle to the courtyard seventy feet below. Astonishingly, some said miraculously, the trio survived the fall. The event has gone down in history as the “defenestration of Prague.” “Defenestration” seems to be an apt word to describe the recent fate of Admiral Bill Moran, U.S. Navy, who was nominated by the President in April and confirmed by the Senate in May to become the Navy’s thirty-second Chief of Naval Operations in midsummer following the retirement of the incumbent, Admiral John Richardson."

‘The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities’
By Mark Beeson, The Strategist (ASPI): "As Mearsheimer rather mournfully concedes, ‘realism does not inspire a hopeful outlook for the future.’ Looking around today’s world, with its catalogue of ineffective institutions, rising authoritarian powers, failing democracies and international flashpoints, one can see his point."

A New Reagan Doctrine for a New Cold War
By Aaron Kliegman, The Washington Free Beacon: " In the military realm, China is determined to push American forces away from the western Pacific. The United States, which considers itself a Pacific power, is equally determined not to budge."

Fixing Light Reconnaissance Formations
By Sean Parrot, Small Wars Journal: "The light reconnaissance formation is undergoing an identity crisis. As the Army begins its transition to fight the next high intensity conflict, mounted and dismounted reconnaissance units across the formation risk being left behind."

Limited Wars Are Forever Wars
By Eoin Higgins, Foreign Affairs: "A new book looks at why the U.S. military keeps trapping itself in endless conflicts."

CAPTURING THE HEARTS AND MINDS OF THE AFRICAN HORN AND GULF; HOW CHINA DOES A RIM-PAC

6/29/2019

Is China Starting Its Own RimPac?
By Tuan N. Pham, Proceedings: "The road to ‘Rim of China’ is through southeast Asia and ASEAN."

In brief: Road to the caliphate: The Salafi-jihadi movement’s strengths
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute

People problems between the Gulf and the Horn of Africa
Karen E. Young | AEIdeas
The Gulf isn't just sending billions of dollars to the Horn of Africa. It's also receiving (and deporting) millions of migrant workers, which is affecting the region's development east and west of the Red Sea.

THE INDIAN - US ALLIANCE & RICHELIEU'S GRAND STRATEGY

6/29/2019

From Inertia to Integration: Getting Serious About U.S.-India Defense Cooperation
By Benjamin E. Schwartz, The American Interest: "India and the United States are declared “major defense partners.” But as Secretary Pompeo visits New Delhi this week, they are still not nearly as aligned as interests and values suggest they should be."

The Elephant in the Room: Auditing the Past and Future of the U.S.-India Partnership by Sameer Lalwani and Heather Byrne

Raison d'Etat: Richelieu's Grand Strategy During the Thirty Years' War by Iskander Rehman

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THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE MIDDLE EAST & THE THUCYDIDES TARIFF TRAP

6/29/2019

Strategic Geography Of The Middle East
by Tony Badran via The Caravan
With the end of the Cold War the United States lost a sound understanding of the strategic geography of the Middle East. Before the fall of the Soviet Union, US strategy focused, correctly, on historical power centers on the outer rim of the Levant and Mesopotamia. The land in between these power centers – Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan – was the arena for proxy war and competition between great powers.

U.S.–China Trade War, Part Two: The Thucydides Trap
By Chet Nagle, CD media: “Intellectual elites and mainstream media have been captivated by Dr. Graham Allison and his prediction that China and the United States are inexorably heading toward war. Like Francis Fukuyama’s 1992 book, “The End of History and the Last Man,” Dr. Allison’s book is fatally flawed."

CONSTITUTIVE FACTORS OF THE US ALLIANCE SYSTEM; HINT, RAYTHEON

6/24/2019

Moving on from INF: Let’s harness the potential of the Missile Technology Control Regime
(Defense News) Two agreements struck in 1987 have served U.S. interests well for most of their lives in terms of arms control and nonproliferation: the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, known as INF, and the Missile Technology Control Regime, a voluntary multilateral export control regime among 35 member states that seek to limit the proliferation of missiles and missile technology.

Who needs ICBMs?
(Defense One) The recent news that Boeing will not bid to build the U.S. Air Force’s next-generation ICBM sent ripples of concern throughout the defense world. Absent Boeing’s participation, Northrop Grumman will have no competition for the contract on one of the biggest replacement programs in the U.S. nuclear modernization plan.

Five Factors Will Decide the Survival of the U.S.-Led Alliance System
By Mason Richey, the interpreter: "The hub-and-spokes alliance model – comprising the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Thailand – has been a pillar of stability in the Asia-Pacific throughout the Cold War and into the contemporary period. But 2019 is very different from 1999, much less 1969, as the U.S.-led alliance architecture faces numerous new threats."

Raytheon designs sensors for Blackjack — & OPIR
(Breaking Defense) Raytheon currently is sitting in the catbird’s seat when it comes to missile warning satellites, with a hand — and contracts — in both the Air Force’s flagship Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (Next-Gen OPIR) and DARPA’s hot Blackjack program.

Next gen jammer deliveries & OPIR: New Raytheon SAS boss
(Breaking Defense) One of the most sensitive and important unclassified programs, Raytheon’s Next Generation Jammer, should see its first two pods delivered to the Navy by the end of this year for the first phase of testing.

Aerojet Rocketdyne Competing for Engines on Future ICBM
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "The unsettled state of the program, known as the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD), doesn’t just impact the big aerospace integrators who want to be prime contractor. It also affects a highly specialized supply chain of domestic contractors whose ranks have thinned dramatically since the end of the Cold War."

TRUMP'S THIN INDO-PACIFIC POLICY: ENVELOPING A RELOADED CHINA

6/22/2019

HOW TO FIGHT CHINA

BLOOMBERG

Addressing America's Operational Shortfall in the Pacific by Mark Montgomery and Eric Sayers

China’s People’s Armed Police: Reorganised and Refocused
By Henry Boyd & Meia Nouwens, IISS: "Now with a more centralised command structure and enhanced use of new technology like uninhabited air vehicles, China’s People’s Armed Police is being transformed into a more reliable and effective force focused on three core missions – internal security, maritime security and supporting the People’s Liberation Army in times of war."

New US Indo-Pacific strategy isn’t going to scare China
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
The Department of Defense's new Indo-Pacific strategy clearly identifies some key tasks the US must accomplish to counter China’s rise. But the Indo-Pacific report is more interesting in that it highlights, intentionally and unintentionally, the key challenges the US has yet to overcome.

THE PLAYGROUND OF THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE: DIVIDING A FALLEN CALIPHATE

6/21/2019

Playground for Powers
by Camille Pecastaing via The Caravan
In August 1920, in the Parisian suburb of Sèvres, envoys of the allied powers signed an eponymous treaty dividing into zones of influence the fallen Ottoman Empire and Islamic Caliphate. The regime of "mandates" it instituted was simultaneously the culmination of European imperialism in the Middle East, and its final undertaking. Mandates were not meant to last: it was a phase of foreign trusteeship, in anticipation of independence that, by the 1970s, would be the norm across the region.

GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS

ATLAS PRO YOUTUBE

DOUGLAS BARRIE: SPACE DEFENSE

THOMAS BUSSING: RAYTHEON MISSILE DEFENSE, STRATEGIEST

JAMES ACTON: NUCLEAR MISSILE DEFENSE

DR. MICHAEL PILLSBURY

HENRY ROWEN
File Size:	78 kb
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CHARLES WOLF JR.
File Size:	665 kb
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ANDREW MASHALL 'YODA'
File Size:	1471 kb
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AMERICA NEEDS NEW ALLIANCES

why_america_needs_new_alliances_-_wsj.pdf
File Size:	158 kb
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POLYBIUS & ANCIENT GRAND STRATEGY
File Size:	2040 kb
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CENTER FOR POLITICAL & MILITARY POWER

SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA ANYMORE

SUN TZU ISN'T WORKING FOR CHINA
File Size:	285 kb
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THE QURAN & MORAL STRATEGY FOR THE LONG WAR

WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS

WHEN WAR WITHOUT END, FINALLY ENDS
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THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM

HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE PELOPONNESIAN WAR

WHAT HAPPENED DURING PELOPONNESIAN WAR
File Size:	547 kb
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THUCYDIDES TRAP IS GREAT POWER COMPETITION

THUCYDIDES TRAP = GREAT POWER COMPETITION
File Size:	2228 kb
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CENTER STRATEGIC, BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS: U.S. GRAND STRATEGY

DAVID P. GOLDMAN COLUMN ASIA TIMES

HOW BEST TO UNDERSTAND U.S. - CHINA RELATIONS

STRATEGY BRIDGE

Winning World War IV David P. Goldman.pdf
File Size:	4315 kb
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THE NEW ASIAN OBSERVER

Tweets by WilliamHolland

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