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ENTER THE DRAGON:  XI JINPING'S LAST GAMBLE

7/17/2020

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China's 'Debt-Trap' Diplomacy with Third-World Nations  by Lawrence A. Franklin  
"Now, PRC Pres. Xi Jinping was being forced by a range of circumstances — a declining economy, the socio-economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic, and a range of natu-ral and demographic disasters and trends — to take precipitate military action before the final window on the path toward global dominance closed for the PRC. "
Five reasons it’s smart to ban Chinese apps
Cleo Paskal 
— Washington Examiner
Both President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are openly talking about emulating India’s ban on some Chinese mobile phone apps. While this may seem trivial, it is actually a surprisingly effective way to hit back at, and protect from, Chinese economic and strategic aggression. India banned 59 Chinese apps after repeated Chinese aggression, including a border clash that left 20 Indian soldiers dead. What India realized was that apps play an important role in China’s espionage and development of weaponized advanced artificial intelligence technology. Read More
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The World’s Most Dangerous Alliance
Thomas Joscelyn — The Dispatch
On July 8, Xi Jinping spoke with his comrade, Vladimir Putin, by phone. Putin has been one of Xi’s staunchest allies throughout the coronavirus pandemic. And Xi wanted to thank him. The Chinese leader “commended the mutual support and assistance the two countries gave each other at the most trying time of the COVID-19 challenge, an endeavor which added strategic substance to China-Russia relations in the new era,” according to a readout of the call prepared by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Read More
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THE NEW GROUND ZERO:  THE INDO-PACIFIC

7/4/2020

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Japan’s rising military
 John Yoo, Michael Auslin, and Taro Kono | "The Pacific Century"
 Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono talks about how the Japanese military has modernized over the past decade and discusses the worsening threats from China and North Korea.
DoD War Games Predict ‘Extremely Destabilizing’ Chinese Military Parity
By Paul McLeary, Breaking Defense: “Worried about America’s eroding dominance at sea, the Pentagon has been running through a series of war games to shake out a plan to stay ahead of the rapid-fire Chinese military modernization effort."
U.S., CHINA:
Can AI Solve the Rare Earths Problem? Chinese and U.S. Researchers Think So

By Patrick Tucker, Defense One: “A research effort funded by China and the U.S. could speed up the discovery of new materials to use in electronics."
https://navaldiplomat.com/
Putin's military has an aging problem. "Moscow has increased its spending on national defense to the highest level since Soviet times," Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation wrote
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-j20-stealth-fighter-jet-into-mass-production-after-upgrade-2020-7
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/34404/big-airfield-expansion-on-wake-island-seen-by-satellite-as-u-s-preps-for-pacific-fight
Proliferant States Continue to Rely on China for Nuclear-Related Equipment
Andrea Stricker | Research Fellow
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Asia's New Geopolitics: A Conversation With Michael R. Auslin And Robert D. Kaplan
interview with Michael R. Auslin via Foreign Policy Research Institute
Hoover Institution fellow Michael Auslin discusses his new book, Asia’s New Geopolitics: Essays on Reshaping the Indo-Pacific, which examines key issues transforming the Indo-Pacific and the broader world, including the history of American strategy in Asia, from the eighteenth century through today.
AMAZON

Xi Jinping's Internal Great Wall
quoting Elizabeth Economy via National Interest
Like the Great Wall of generations past, Xi’s Internal Great Wall will continue to keep China behind the rest of the world because a nation that suppresses its own people is not a nation the world can trust to do business fairly.


Winter Is Coming
By James A. Winnefeld Jr., Proceedings: "Extended geopolitical cycles usually end in war. A major test of U.S. power, which may already be under way, could signal the end of the current cycle. Winter is coming, and there is much to do to prepare."
Convoys As Echoes of the Past Part II:
Revisiting the Chessboard Model

By Harrison Schramm, RealClearDefense: “Thinking about objects moving in continuous ‘free space’ is hard; a key innovation of the Chessboard model is to impose a grid structure on the North Atlantic.”

Rushing to Defeat: The Strategic Flaw in Contemporary U.S. Army Thinking
By Christopher Parker, Strategy Bridge: "The United States Army has a problem. As it extricates itself from protracted counterinsurgency and stability operations in Afghanistan and reorients towards large-scale combat operations, the Army has realized its adversaries, namely China and Russia, have adopted a security posture bent on undermining its preferred way of war."
Who Is to Blame for the U.S. Military’s Technology Problem?
By Justin Lynch, Modern War Institute: "If monarchy and oligarchy are rule by the few, and aristocracy and democracy are rule by the best and the many, then bureaucracy, Hannah Arendt tells us, is rule by Nobody."
Strengthening Maritime Capability for a Stronger and More Resilient America
By Mike Stevens, RealClearDefense: “Now is the time to enhance and improve America’s maritime industrial base to meet the challenges today ..."
 
China’s Rise as a Global Power Reaches Its Riskiest Point Yet
By Rodger Baker, Stratfor Worldview: "China has reached a risky point in its international development where its economic and strategic power is perceived as great enough to require a reply, but are not yet strong enough to withstand a concerted counter-challenge."
Huawei is under a lot of pressure. Fresh US sanctions have cut off the Chinese tech company’s access to vital American technology to a greater extent than ever before. Countries and mobile network operators around the world are now questioning whether Huawei will be able to deliver on its 5G promises. And rising anti-China sentiment in India and elsewhere is not helping matters. – CNN
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The Chinese government took steps to boost political policing as a slew of international spats risk sowing domestic unrest, potentially undermining support for the Communist Party. – Bloomberg
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THE NATIONALIST COUNTRYSIDE VS. THE GLOBALIST CITY

7/4/2020

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https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/06/protests-urban-chaos-americans-will-seek-to-avoid-big-cities/
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HOW OLD GENERALS FIGHT THE LAST WAR & HOW ISRAEL HITS IRANIAN PROXIES

7/4/2020

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HOW CHINA'S GEOGRAPHY WORKS AGAINST ITS DOMESTIC & FOREIGN AMBITIONS

6/12/2020

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The Trump administration is focusing its efforts on engaging in trilateral arms control agreements with Russia and China. This week, the United States and Russia began negotiations over extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, though China has no intentions of joining. However, the administration's effort to bring China into the negotiations distracts from the dynamic of what makes for successful arms control: modernization and deployment of nuclear systems that allow negotiation from a position of strength. AEI’s John Maurer argues that "to maximize our chances of success in arms control negotiations with Russia and China, the United States must embrace a long-term strategy of nuclear modernization, including new ballistic missiles, missile submarines, and nuclear-capable bombers. Only a robust and modernized American nuclear deterrent will provide the leverage necessary to bring adversaries to the table for serious negotiations." ​
A growing chorus of voices is advising Congress to reduce spending on nuclear modernization in the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2021. This advice is misguided, argues John Maurer in a RealClear Defense op-ed. To build a new arms control framework, the United States must negotiate from a position of strength. Slowing nuclear modernization would end any hope for arms control, even as the United States pursues new negotiations aimed at curbing competition among the United States, Russia, and China. Read here.
Peter Suciu writes: For China to gain naval dominance would require that it could launch and maintain more than the 11 aircraft carriers the United States Navy now operates, but would also need to keep pace with the carriers in service with the Royal Navy, France and Australia. As long as NATO exists it isn’t just the 11 U.S. carriers and potentially nine LHAs in the U.S. fleet, but all of those other carriers. – The National Interest
“Beyond the Beltway” — What’s the Civil-Military Crisis? by Paula Thornhill
Countering China Is for the BIRDs
Russia’s New Strategy for Nuclear War
By Paul Dibb, The Strategist (ASPI): "The relatively short, six-page document sets out a series of blunt messages designed to impress on its potential enemies just where Russia stands. While it considers nuclear weapons ‘exclusively as a means of deterrence’ and characterises their use as ‘an extreme and compelled measure’, this official declaration sets out in some detail the conditions that could trigger nuclear conflict."
Religious and Cultural Obstacles to China's BRI in the Middle East
By Dr. Mordechai Chaziza, June 12, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The successful implementation of China’s BRI strategy will largely depend on its ability to overcome the Middle East’s weighty political, economic, religious, cultural, and security problems.

Continue to full article ->
The United States, China and ‘The Geography of the Peace’
By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: ““The United States must recognize once again, and permanently, that the power constellation in Europe and Asia is of everlasting concern to her, both in time of war and in time of peace.” So wrote Nicholas J. Spykman in The Geography of the Peace, which was published in 1944, when the Second World War was still raging in Europe and Asia, and on the oceans of the world."
American Exceptionalism in the Age of Trump
By Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): "With World War II, President Franklin Roosevelt, his successor, Harry Truman, and others drew the lesson that the U.S. could not afford to turn inward again. They realised that America’s very size had become a second source of exceptionalism."
East Asia decouples from the United States: Trade war, COVID-19, and East Asia's new trade blocs
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Is The Wall Street Journal Now Getting Woke on China Trade?
Defending America’s defenders
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Beginning to stand up to a hostile international organizatio
The Aircraft Carrier We Need
By Jerry Hendrix, National Review: "A strategic design update is due."

Distributable Platforms and Determined Marines:
The Necessity of Operational Art in a 21st Century Marine Corps

By Matthew Schultz, Michael Manning, Jeremy Smith, Brian Meade, Matthew Newman & Paul Kozick, Strategy Bridge: "In the coming era of distributable platforms, stand-in forces, and globally-integrated joint combined arms operations, the time has come for the Corps to join the rest of the U.S. military services in embracing the concept of operational art in its foundational, service-level doctrine."

Options for the U.S. to Wage Conflict in the Cognitive Domain
By Todd Schmidt, DefenseTech: "Current operational environments witness adversaries increasingly avoiding conventional conflict and achieving their objectives through other means of influence. The consequence is a future of persistent, unending great power competition that resides in a gray zone between war and peace."
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THE AXIS OF EVIL GOES TO SOUTH AMERICA FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

6/5/2020

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Bolton still hasn’t grasped that the regime fed him enough disinformation to sustain an empty strategy. The former national security adviser echoes Trump’s gripe that the Obama administration left many messes behind: “The growing Russian, Chinese, Iranian and Cuban influence across the hemisphere had not been a priority” for eight years. Read more here.
Latin America’s criminal groups have leveraged the pandemic to win local support by delivering humanitarian assistance in underserved communities. Such levels of “criminal charity” could complicate the future efforts of Latin America’s weakest states to dismantle and defeat organized crime groups, notes Ryan Berg in an article for the SAIS Review of International Affairs. The pandemic has opened possibilities for criminal groups in Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil to curry favor and employ violence to coerce populations. So far, criminal groups are far outpacing Latin American states in the crucial competition for millions of hearts and minds. Continue here.
IRAN:
German Intel Report Lays Bare Iran’s Attempts to Obtain Nuclear Proliferation Technology

By Benjamin Weinthal, FOX News: “In a section titled “Proliferation,” the 181-page Baden-Württemberg state intelligence agency document reviewed by Fox News states that Iran, Pakistan, North Korea and Syria are “still pursuing” such efforts."
For Peace, America Must Negotiate From Strength
By John D. Maurer, RealClearDefense: “In an era of global pandemic, economic downturn, and social unrest, a growing chorus of voices is advising Congress to reduce spending on nuclear modernization in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021. This advice is misguided."
The surge of attacks by Islamic State militants in Iraq displays a quiet return of a group that six years ago threatened Baghdad. In an article for The Islamists, Katherine Zimmerman notes that the Islamic State’s threat to the West remains real. Stamping out the Islamic State and its ability to inspire terror attacks requires more than pressure on ISIS or individual branches, a lesson the US should have learned from its approach to fighting al Qaeda. Read here.
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THE MIDDLE KINGDOM RISES & RUSSIAN MODERNIZATION PLANS FOR ITS BEST FIGHTER JET

5/21/2020

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The Middle Kingdom Rises
By Brent Ramsey, RealClearDefense: "The People’s Republic of China (PRC) intends to become the world’s dominant military and economic power by mid-century and to soon supplant the U.S. as hegemon in the Indo-Pacific. Admiral Davidson, the Commander-in-Chief, USINDOPACOM stated in April 2018, “China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea (SCS) in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”"
CHINA:
It’s the Logistics, China

By Will Mackenzie, National Defense Magazine: "In protracted warfare, logistics and sustainment capabilities are as important as force composition, something China will struggle to mitigate."
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RUSSIA:
Moscow's Fifth-Generation Su-57 Fighter Modification Plans

By Roger McDermott , Eurasia Daily Monitor: “While Russia’s defense ministry aims to introduce 76 Su-57s by 2027, recent reporting suggests there may well be further modifications to the platform before production can finally commence.”
The Strategic Littoral Geography of Southeast Asia
By Pete McPhail, Arthur Speyer, Bret Rodgers, Steve Ostrosky, Jesse Burns & Dan Marquis, CIMSEC: "Military decision-makers instinctively think in geographic terms. Southeast Asia’s complex economic, military, political, legal, and environmental layers are best portrayed visually. By spatially portraying information, troops can work their way through geography to comprehend the interaction of these complex layers."
Nuclear-Armed Submarines and Strategic Stability in the Indo-Pacific
By Stephan Fruehling, The Daily Beast: “When The New York Times reported that Russia had likely deployed a nuclear-armed cruise missile in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear."

China and Japan’s Island Dispute
By William Choong, the interpreter: "The issue is not whether Beijing would want to challenge Tokyo over the islands. The question is when, and how?"
A Moment of Truth for U.S.-Iraq Relations
By John Hannah, RealClearDefense: “Today, the United States and Iraq will launch a strategic dialogue to discuss the future of their bilateral relationship. For Washington, the priority should be determining whether Iraq’s government remains a viable partner worthy of continued U.S. support."

U.S.-Iraq Strategic Dialogue and Foreign Influence in Iraq
By Ari Cicurel, RealClearDefense: “America and the new government in Baghdad now have an opportunity to turn the page in favor of U.S. and Iraqi interests and curtail the influence of Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow."

The Gravity of China’s Space Base in Argentina
By Erin Watson-Lynn, the interpreter: "What the South American country stands to gain from the deal is something of a mystery."
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CONFRONTING CHINA IN MEXICO

5/15/2020

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China: What We Must Do, What We Must Not Do
by Gordon G. Chang  
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The Strategic Competition We’ve Neglected:
Confronting China in Mexico

By Lindsay Gabow, RealClearDefense: "With the U.S. long focused on terrorism, China’s footprint in Mexico has grown considerably. Wielding soft-power influence, China has established its ability to undermine U.S. interests across our Southwest border."
China's Tech Theft a Bigger Challenge Than That of Soviets
By Robert Farley, The Diplomat: "In the context of ongoing discussions of Chinese technology theft, it's worth revisiting how the Soviet Union sought to acquire U.S. technology during the Cold War."
 
Japan Could Carry the Day in a U.S.-China Conflict
By Bertil Lintner, Asia Times: "Defense-related spending in Japan has traditionally aimed chiefly to shield against neighboring North Korea's nuclear threat. But the new ramped up spending is more clearly pointed towards an expansionist and increasingly assertive China, according to Japanese military insiders."
The Chinese View of Western-Russia Competition
By Emil Avdaliani, May 14, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The ongoing competition between Russia and the West is likely to continue unabated for years to come. Beijing will endeavor to widen that gulf by supporting Moscow in its efforts to implement China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East and Eurasia.

Continue to full article ->
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US TO NUCLEAR CHINA:  DECOUPLING BEGINS

5/4/2020

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Staring Into the Abyss of US-China Decoupling
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, June 5, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel resides at the cusp of the widening US-Chinese divide, as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent visit to Israel attests. Pompeo’s visit was for the express purpose of reminding Jerusalem that its dealings with Beijing jeopardize its relationship with Washington.

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Trump’s New China strategy Must Focus on International Organizations
Richard Goldberg | Senior Advisor
The Marine Corps is starting to form and experiment with the littoral regiment at the heart of its modern-day island-hopping strategy, the head of Marine Corps combat development told USNI News. – USNI News ​
HOOVER STRATEGIKA:  CHINA 
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Great New Developments on the U.S.-China Decoupling Front  by Alan Tonelson
Faced with the erosion of civil-military relations, it is time to reexamine the personnel policy of "veterans' preference," argue Mackenzie Eaglen and Frances Burke for War on the Rocks. As an increasing number of recently retired military personnel fill the civil service roles that are designed to keep civilians involved in US national security structures, this disrupts the US national security ecosystem and the tenuous balance of civil-military relations. Protecting the role of civilians in the Department of Defense should be paramount for the Pentagon and lawmakers alike. 
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Learn more here.
Benjamin Jensen and Matthew Van Echo write: The idea was not to go to war with China, America’s third-largest trading partner. The idea was to explore coercion and setting conditions in a theater of operation in a manner that provided multiple credible and flexible deterrence and military response options to national decision-makers. As a result, students gained a better understanding of new concepts like the competition continuum and were able to evaluate them in relation to a larger body of literature on coercion, military power, and crisis management. – War on the Rocks
Oriana Skylar Mastro took to the Strength Through Peace blog to argue that the world’s focus is rightly on managing the COVID-19 pandemic and reducing the loss of life. But the challenges of addressing China’s rise have not dissipated — instead, they are increasing — and the United States should focus on potential contingencies in the South China Sea if it is to avoid them. 
Continue here.
Net Assessment: Big Trouble in a Little China Strategy? with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-and-chinas-missiles-are-become-bigger-threat-heres-how-improve-us-missile-defenses
China’s Ambiguous Missile Strategy Is Risky
By P.W. Singer & Ma Xiu, Popular Science: "The risk with this strategy is that such ambiguity substantially increases the danger of an accidental nuclear exchange due to mistaken assumptions."
Is China in Breach of Its Nuclear-Testing Commitments?
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): "In last month’s executive summary of the 2020 edition of the U.S. State Department’s annual report on global arms-control compliance, a ‘concern’ is raised about possible low-level Chinese nuclear testing at the Lop Nur test site in Xinjiang province."
Daniel Tobin writes: The ambitions articulated by Xi Jinping at the 19th Party Congress underscore that Washington and its allies face a global, strategic rivalry driven as much by ideology and values embodied in competing domestic governance systems as by perceptions of changing power dynamics. While this rivalry differs in many respects from the Cold War, one of the most important differences is that it is a competition to define the rules and norms that will govern an integrated, deeply connected world rather than a world divided into competing camps. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Caution: China’s Nuclear Strategy May Be ‘Nuclear Thoughtlessness’
By Paul Bracken, The Hill: “China’s nuclear strategy is more complex than most public discussions or academic studies suggest."

Deterrence in the Pacific: The Chinese Nuclear Dimension
By Robbin Laird, SLD.info: "“Rocking the boat” in Asia will look much different in a “heavy” nuclear world than it did when China was barely a nuclear weapon state.”"
China’s strategic interest in the Arctic goes beyond economics
(Defense News) In its Arctic policy published in 2018, China proclaimed itself as a “near-Arctic state,” a label that has since invited controversy.
Securing America From China’s Predatory Economic Tactics
Begins With Protecting Our Businesses

By Mark Green, RealClearDefense: “China’s actions to cover up their handling of the outbreak have shed new light on China’s hegemonic intentions."
Can a broke America fight a Cold War with China?
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
The coronavirus has united Americans against Beijing’s aggressions, but it will also devastate the Pentagon budget.
CHINA:
Chinese Navy Submarines Protected By Underground Tunnels

By H I Sutton, Forbes: "China is a maritime nation with over 9,000 miles of coastline, dotted with ports. Compared to most other countries, it has a large number of naval bases."
​Special Report: U.S. rearms to nullify China's missile supremacy
(Reuters) As Washington and Beijing trade barbs over the coronavirus pandemic, a longer-term struggle between the two Pacific powers is at a turning point, as the United States rolls out new weapons and strategy in a bid to close a wide missile gap with China.
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Pandemic Sets the Stage for a Western-Asian Ideological Contest
By Emil Avdaliani, May 3, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As the shock from the coronavirus pandemic decreases over the coming months, both China and the West are likely to record successes in the economic and political realms. The crisis has set the stage for an ideological struggle between the West and China that will play a crucial role in determining the destiny of Eurasia throughout this decade and the next.

Continue to full article ->
Trump’s nuclear policy has failed
(Defense One) Recognizing that blunders and bad ideas have undermined stability and security is the first step toward recovery.
Is Xi Jinping weaker than we think?
Gary J. Schmitt and Minxin Pei | The American Interest
What if military recruiting could screen for wash-outs?
(Military Times) It takes tens of thousands of dollars to get a new service member through recruiting and initial training, and costs the services hundreds of millions a year when new troops are discharged from the military before the end of their first contracts.
Rep. Gallagher: The ‘bad day for The PLA Navy’
(Breaking Defense) The Navy’s decision to tap Wisconsin’s Fincantieri Marinette Marine to build the first 10 of a new class of guided missile frigates last month could be the first real step toward a faster, more numerous and more lethal fleet.
Chinese Navy expanding base in Africa, satellite images confirm
(War Is Boring) The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has stepped up its operations at a base in Africa, as evidenced by satellite imagery.
China ‘won’t win more respect’ if it expands nuclear arsenal following calls from national media, analyst says
(South China Morning Post) Calls for Beijing to expand its nuclear arsenal reflect its rocky relations with Washington, and any reckless moves could damage the nation’s credibility, according to an analyst.
Build a fleet, not a constituency
(Defense News) The U.S. Navy’s long-awaited award of a contract to design and build a new class of frigates has brought with it calls to dramatically expand the planned class of 20 ships to a fleet of 70 or more hulls.
Does a US presidential military experience gap really matter?
(The Diplomat) What are the strategic consequences of leadership that lacks direct military experience?
James Jay Carafano and Riley Walters write: Unless the Quad economies can focus on structural reforms focused on economic freedom as they strive to get their economies back to work, they can expect a struggle to get back to just average economic growth—and even that will not be enough to truly recover. Working together, however, they can better find the strength to do what’s necessary to get their economies moving again. – The Daily Signal
Michael O’Hanlon writes: If we do not listen to that message, the entire domestic basis for a strong United States and an engaged foreign policy leadership role could evaporate. Domestic policy has turned to foreign policy. Both the Pentagon and the candidates should take heed. As we emerge from the emergency response to coronavirus in the months to come, this more than any other is the debate we need to have as a country.- The Hill
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Bryan Clark and Dan Patt write: The U.S. military needs new approaches to warfighting if it is going to deter aggression and counter gray-zone tactics from great power and regional competitors. Technology proliferation and post-pandemic budget and experimentation constraints will prevent staying ahead through superior equipment and tactics alone. DoD will need to start enabling what American military leaders have always said is their greatest resource: the creativity and adaptability of their warfighters. – Defense One
How to Decouple Key Supply Chains from China
Keep Expectations Modest for Iraq’s New Government by Douglas A. Ollivant

Pulling Troops Out of Africa Could Mean Another Endless War by Herman J. Cohen
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BETWEEN DIPLOMACY AND WAR ALIGNING ENDS AND MEANS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC; hoover's strategika on china

4/20/2020

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Win Without Fighting
By Hunter Stires, Proceedings: “The United States is devoting significant energy to preparing for great power war, but China is waging a maritime insurgency—and could win without firing a shot."
Towards a Concept of Good Civilian Guidance by Alice Hunt Friend and Mara Karlin
The Nonsense of “Neo-Ottomanism” by Nicholas Danforth
Adi Schwartz: Western Indulgence of Palestinian 'Refugee' Claims Obstructs Peace
by Gary C. Gambill
May 31, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60812/adi-schwartz-how-western-indulgence-of-palestine
Russian Influence Grows in Central Asia
By Kseniya Kirillova, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "Russian influence in Central Asia is not limited to increasing economic integration. As early as October 2015, experts at the Minsk Center for Strategic and Foreign Political Research insisted that Russia was preparing a destabilization scenario intended to encourage conflict among the key governments and forces of the region."
Nuclear Fuel Working Group Recommends Key Steps to Safeguard U.S. Uranium Supply
STRATEGIKA:  CHINA
Aligning America’s ends and means in the Indo-Pacific
Cutting Carriers, Undermining the Most Useful U.S. Warfighting System
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "Defense News reported this week that a Pentagon office has proposed reducing the number of aircraft carriers in the U.S. fleet from eleven to nine. That may not sound like much, but in operational terms it means that on a typical day the Navy would only be able to have two or three carriers forward deployed near global hot spots."
Strategy And The Continental Commitment
by Williamson Murray via Military History in the News
In the 1930s, the British military pundit B. H. Liddell Hart argued that Britain’s participation in the First World War with a massive commitment to France to fight the Germans had been a terrible mistake. Instead, he argued, Britain, as it had supposedly done in the eighteenth and early nineteenth century, should have committed minimal forces to the continent and used its army and navy to attack Germany on the periphery. Liddell Hart’s arguments represented a rephrasing of the “blue water” school in British strategic thinking which had argued that Britain should focus almost entirely on the Royal Navy to the exclusion of spending any resources or committing any troops on the European Continent.
Measuring Power, Power Cycles, and the Risk of Great-Power War
Growing concern that U.S. power has been declining relative to that of Russia and China renews long-standing questions about how we should measure national power. Which nations have the most? Which are gaining and losing power, and when might these shifts portend conflict? Read more »
It's Time to Make a Full and Enduring Commitment to Iraq
American interests will suffer if strategic competition in Iraq is abandoned. U.S. policymakers should pursue a commitment to Iraq before opportunities are lost. The best way to establish that commitment is through robust, long-term, small-footprint assistance to the Iraqi Army. Read more »
'Quad Plus' Meetings Won't Cover China
The “Quad” countries met with several non-Quad countries to help each other amid the coronavirus pandemic. For all the good that can come of these countries working together, the Quad Plus, if sustained, may eventually jeopardize the Quad's primary mission: to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Read more »
U.S. Views Of China Plunge During Corona Crisis
by Michael R. Auslin via Real Clear Politics
A new poll by the Pew Research Center provides the clearest snapshot yet of the collapse in American views of China thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. Taken March 3-29, the big takeaway from the survey of 1,000 adults is that 66% now have a negative view of China, compared with 26% favorable. That is a 20% jump in unfavorable ratings since 2017 and a 6% rise since last year. 
The Rhymes of History: Beijing’s Nightmare Strategic Scenarios
By Michael Colebrook, Strategy Bridge: "History does not repeat itself. With the exception of general platitudes about the permanence of international tension and the sporadic recurrence of violent conflict, statements about historical patterns and cycles of warfare can at best lead to historiographical confirmation bias and, at worst, can prejudice policymakers into taking counterproductive and unnecessary escalatory measures."
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Why Rare Earths Independence is At Least as Important as Energy Independence
Lebanon, Hezbollah, and COVID-19
The Rise of the Liberal World Order
By Samantha A. Taylor, War Room: "Many foreign policy and international relations experts are expressing concern about the future of the liberal world order."

Undersea Deterrence and Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific
By Rory Medcalf, The Strategist (ASPI): "Amid rapid geopolitical change at the start of the 2020s, unfolding now in the Covid-19 crisis, nuclear weapons manifest grim continuity with the previous century. Especially persistent is a capability that has existed since the 1960s: the deployment of nuclear weapons on submarines."

Getting the Pacific Deterrence Initiative Right
By Benjamin Rimland & Patrick Buchan, The Diplomat: “The PDI will undoubtedly set the groundwork for U.S. defense posture in Asia for the foreseeable future. Getting it right matters."

What We Can Learn Today From the Victory of the Osama bin Laden Raid
By William H. McRaven & Michael Leiter, The Washington Post: "For those of us who played a small part in the mission that led to bin Laden’s death, this anniversary reminds us of something else: how to best protect our country."
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SUN TZU'S EQUAL HAS DIED:  COLIN S. GRAY & MCMASTER REVEALS HOW CHINA SEES THE WORLD

4/6/2020

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Colin S. Gray: A Reminiscence by David J. Lonsdale
On Deterrence, Defense and Arm Control:  In Honor of Colin S. Gray
By Keith B. Payne, National Institute for Public Policy: "The scope and breadth of Colin’s curiosity and writing far transcended any single topic.  This brief discussion focuses only on a single enduring area of his scholarly interest:  deterrence theory, policy and associated strategic force considerations, including arms control."
RIP Dave Dilegge
By Dave Dilegge, Small Wars Journal: "Dave Dilegge passed away Saturday morning. It's a shock to his family and a great loss to our small wars community."
Dave Dilegge, the ‘grandfather of urban warfare studies,’ has died
(Military Times) For Dave Dilegge, the days usually started at 3 a.m. as he began to scour the internet for the latest military and national security news he’d compile for Small Wars Journal.
The Evolving Nature of War
By Douglas J. Feith & Shaul Chorev, National Institute for Public Policy: "Throughout history, wars generally hinged on clashes of arms. To win, a party had to defeat its enemy’s military forces. For the United States since the Vietnam War of the 1960s and 1970s, however, the only conflict of this conventional model was the Gulf War of 1990-91."
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Colin Gray and the Revival of Classical Geopolitics
By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: "Colin S. Gray, who died in late February after a long battle with cancer, was one of the great strategic thinkers of our time. He authored more than 30 books and 300 articles, founded the National Institute for Public Policy, served as a defense advisor to American Presidents and British Prime Ministers, and taught international relations and strategic studies at the University of Reading in England."
India and Pakistan Exchange Fire with Sameer Lalwani
How China Sees The World
by H. R. McMaster via The Atlantic
And how we should see China.
Im-Politic: Biden’s Massive China Fakery
Deterrence, Norms, and the Uncomfortable Realities of a New Nuclear Age by Gerald C. Brown
Defining Defeat
By Kevin Benson, Strategy Bridge: " Defining such a term in doctrine is critical when attempting to link tactical actions to conditions that attain policy objectives. In essence, doctrine, while not dogma or regulation, guides thinking about warfare."
The Importance of the Strategic Level: Germany in the Second World War
By Lorris Beverelli, Strategy Bridge: "It is widely agreed that there are three levels of war. From the general to the local, they are the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. Strategy, simply defined, is the alignment of means and ways to accomplish a political end. Strategy is about obtaining success from war through a clearly defined theory of victory. Each level of war is essential to obtain this success, and are all equally important."
A Look at Strategic Geography for Pacific Defense:
Putting the Chinese Military Challenge Into Strategic Context

By Robbin Laird, DEFENSE.info: Notably, it has not led with the use of military power as its key instrument, but has combined manufacturing growth, supply chain dominance (enabled by the Western approach to globalization), investments within the West and the Third World, along with sophisticated means for political influence and information warfare."
 
Sun Tzu and the Coronavirus
By Tunku Varadarajan, Hoover Institution: " A real question in Chinese literature, Ms. Nylan says, is what you do with bad news. “And this is right across the board. The Confucian ‘Analects’ talks about this, the Daoist philosopher Zhuangzi talks about this, and Sun Tzu does, too.”"
The Navy’s Crisis of Special Trust and Confidence by Doyle Hodges
Reimagine the ARG/MEU Team
By Andrew Roscoe, Proceedings: "The amphibious ready group (ARG) and Marine expeditionary unit (MEU) construct is a holdover from the Cold War that is failing to keep pace with 21st-century conflict and the needs of combatant commanders."
Cooperative Deployments:
An Indispensable Tool for Preparing for the High-End Fight

By David Wallsh & Eleanore Douglas, CIMSEC: “Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Admiral Gilday’s December 2019 Fragmentary Order (FRAGO), “Design for Maintaining Maritime Superiority,” emphasizes the importance of building alliances and partnerships to enhance U.S. warfighting capability, with a particular focus on “full interoperability at the high end of naval warfare.”"

Three Reasons Air Advising is Essential to America’s National Defense Strategy
By Ryan Hill, Small Wars Journal: "The U.S. Air Force has five historic and strategic core missions: Air and Space Superiority, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), Rapid Global Mobility, Global Strike, and Command and Control (C2). These missions have served the nation well over the decades; however, as America changes its defense strategy, more may be required of its air service."
Strengthening Central Asian Security
By Stephen Blank, RealClearDefense: "Central Asia lives in a dangerous neighborhood.  It is situated between two resurgent empires: Russia and China.  It includes Afghanistan in its borders, and despite the February 29 agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban, the Taliban broke the treaty within 72 hours.  Therefore, Central Asian governments are all conducting what has been called a multi-vector foreign policy to balance between Moscow, Beijing, the EU in Brussels, Washington, and other players like Japan, South Korea, and India."
It Was Grand, But Was it Strategy?
Revisiting the Origins Story of Grand Strategy

By David Morgan-Owen, Strategy Bridge: "Recalling the experience of working on the grand strategy volumes of the British Government’s official history of the Second World War, Sir Michael Howard remarked that “the editor never told me what Grand Strategy was, and none of my colleagues seem to have asked.” Finding no definition of the term, Howard was obliged to make up his own."
FOREIGN AFFAIRS:  THE END OF GRAND STRATEGY
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THE WHITE HOUSE'S 5G STRATEGY REVEALED

4/5/2020

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Why Was the U.S. So Late to Recognize the China Threat
By Bradley A. Thayer & Lianchao Han, RealClearDefense: "The recent who-is-weak-on-China verbal war between Biden and Trump captures a fundamental issue in the 2020 race:  how to confront China."
U.S., CHINA:
U.S. Tightens China Export Controls on Military Use Concerns

By Ankit Panda, The Diplomat: "The United States Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced new rules on Tuesday that will tighten the export of certain sensitive technologies to end-users in China on fears that they might find their way into use by the Chinese armed forces."
White House Releases National Strategy for 5G Security
By Brandi Vincent, NextGov: "The strategy focuses on four lines of effort and will guide how the government approaches 5G for the near future."
Non-Traditional Defense Companies – Unique Military Capabilities
By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: "The idea is that DoD acquisition can benefit not only from access to the unique products such companies produce but from their alternative approaches to design, production and sustainment."
Killing for the Republic
By Paul Johstono, Strategy Bridge: "What are the relationships between citizen-soldiers, civic virtue, and patriotism?"
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MARINE CORPS TAKE ON THE CHALLENGE OF CHINA & CHINA'S ASSESSMENT OF INDIA; HOW TO DEAL WITH INSIDER THREATS WHILE KILLING FOR THE REPUBLIC

3/27/2020

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The Case for Change
By David H. Berger, Marine Corps Gazette: “The United States Marine Corps I lead in 2020 finds itself, like the rest of the U.S. defense establishment, at a crossroads."

Still First to Fight? Shaping the 21st Century Marine Corps
By Frank G. Hoffman, FPRI: “Marine Force Design 2030The Marine Corps has earned its reputation in battle, but it has also excelled at anticipating demands for new capabilities to deal with the changing character of war.
  Ben Lowsen on Chinese PLA Ground Forces
(The Diplomat) Assessing the future trajectory of PLA ground forces development.
Patriot deployment to Iraq is helpful, but insufficient against Iran
(Defense News) The eviction of U.S. forces from Iraq represents a major strategic objective for the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Tehran has used its extraordinary influence in Baghdad to push for an American departure regardless of the interests of the Iraqi people.
A Chat with the Commandant: Gen. David H. Berger on the Marine Corps’ New Direction with Gen. David H. Berger and Ryan Evans
IN DEFENSE OF US GENERALSHIP
THE IDENTITY OF THE MARINE CORPS
China’s Strategic Assessment of India by Yun Sun
China's Defense Spending Is Larger Than It Looks
By Frederico Bartels, Defense One: “An early lesson emerging from China's handling of the COVID-19 emergency is that Beijing still manipulates data to fit its desired narrative."
Strategika Issue 63: Should The United States Leave The Middle East?
via Strategika
Strategika Issue 63 is now available online. Strategika is an online journal that analyzes ongoing issues of national security in light of conflicts of the past—the efforts of the Military History Working Group of historians
Leaving The Middle East: The Fallacy Of A False Dichotomy
by Admiral James O. Ellis Jr. via Strategika
In classical logic, the false dichotomy, or false dilemma, is defined as an argument where only two choices are presented yet more exist, or a spectrum of possible choices exists between two extremes. False dilemmas are usually characterized by “either this or that” language but can also be characterized by the omission of choices. This insidious tactic has the appearance of forming a logical argument, but under closer scrutiny it becomes evident that there are more possibilities than the either/or choice that is presented.
CSIS
https://www.wsj.com/articles/marines-plan-to-retool-to-meet-china-threat-11584897014
Mark F. Cancian writes: Gone are tanks and capabilities for sustained ground combat and counterinsurgency. Instead, the corps focuses on long-range and precision strike for a maritime campaign in the Western Pacific against China. But this new Marine Corps faces major risks if the future is different from that envisioned or if the new concepts for operations in a hostile environment prove more difficult to implement than the Marine Corps’ war games indicate. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
MH-47G Chinook Special Operations Helicopter
From Air Force-Technology: "The first new-build MH-47G helicopter was delivered to the USASOC in September 2014."

U.S., MIDDLE EAST:
CENTCOM Pushes a Dubious Carrier Strategy

By David Larter, Defense News: "U.S. Central Command is doubling down on a two-carrier strategy of questionable value and crippling consequences for Navy readiness."
U.S., INDO-PACIFIC:
Indo-Pacom Presses All Domain Ops; Sends Plan to Hill Soon

By Paul McLeary, Paul McLeary: “"For its backbone," Adm. Davidson said, "we need a joint -- joint -- network of training ranges capable of meeting the exercise, experimentation, and innovation objectives of the new warfighting concept.""
‘Behavioral Indicators’: Avoiding Self-Defeat in Countering Insider Threats
By Frank Tortorello, War Room: "In the counter-insider threat (CIT) world of the United States Department of Defense (DoD), the concept of a “behavioral indicator” is a primary basis for deciding whether an individual ought to be considered a threat to DoD resources."
What Compelled the Roman Way of Warfare? Killing for the Republic
By Rebecca Burgess, Strategy Bridge: "Any polity can field an army through compulsion or other violent means. What matters more is what makes your average person choose to stay on the battlefield."
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KIRKPATRICK, DOCTRINE AND STRATEGY

3/23/2020

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Geopolitical Jockeying in a Time of Pandemic
By Michael Auslin, Spectator: “It’s business as usual in Asia’s vital seas.
Smarter Ways to Improve Missile Defense Capability
By Patty-Jane Geller, RealClearDefense: "The January 7 Iranian missile attack against al-Asad air base in Iraq immediately led many to question why the base had no missile defenses in place."
Is a new Kirkpatrick Doctrine the answer? No doctrine before strategy
Giselle Donnelly et al. | The American Interest
The OODA Loop and the Half-Beat
By Alastair Luft, Strategy Bridge: "What does it mean to get inside an opponent’s OODA (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) loop?"
Time Slips By: The Tartar Steppe
By Christopher Johnson, Strategy Bridge: "The story’s protagonist, Giovanni Drogo, spends his days in the mountain outpost of Fort Bastiani overlooking the Tartar Steppe’s barren lands."

RIP the Carter Doctrine, 1980-2019
By Hal Brands, Steven A. Cook & Kenneth M. Pollack , Foreign Policy: "By most measures Jimmy Carter’s presidency was a lackluster one. Americans were experiencing malaise at home and a string of apparent defeats abroad, highlighted by the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan. Yet it was these twin crises that produced the Carter Doctrine, which has served the United States and its allies well ever since."

I Spent Decades as a Covert CIA Operative – This Is My New Mission
By Brad Johnson, American Military News: "Over the previous decades, I have observed the Intelligence Community turn away from its core responsibilities for the safety and security of all Americans to a far more political agenda. The intelligence community’s (IC) quadrennial report about global trends published in 2017 is a poster child example of what is wrong with intelligence today."
Fighting Corona Will Strain U.S. Military Capacity in the Indo-Pacific
By Ashley Townshend & Jim Golby, the interpreter: "With outbreaks in the ranks and resources directed home, America’s military commitments will be challenged."
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THE IDF'S NEW WAR MACHINE & IRAQI'S FINALLY GET US LED MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS

3/22/2020

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The IDF's Momentum Plan Aims to Create a New Type of War Machine
By Yaakov Lappin, March 22, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: After a year of planning, including a thorough and at times painful "self MRI scan," the IDF has set itself the target of creating a networked force that can destroy enemy capabilities in as little time and at as low a cost as possible. According to its new multi-year Momentum program, the IDF has changed its definition of victory, marking a significant and potentially extremely fruitful shift in military thinking.

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Attacks in Iraq underscore need for indirect fire protection capability
Bradley Bowman and Behnam Ben Taleblu — Defense News
The newly released U.N. Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran savaged Tehran’s failure to adhere to basic human rights norms. Javaid Rehman, the U.N. Rapporteur who released his report to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland,  on Monday, said: “Individuals who have called for the alleviation of economic hardships, and those who peacefully exercise their civil and political rights in defense of human rights have faced a harsh response. In particular, I remain deeply concerned at the arrest and imprisonment of human rights defenders and lawyers. Read More
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US PARTNERS WITH VIETNAM AGAINST THE PLA & EXAMINING PROBLEMS WITH RUSSIA'S SU FIGHTER JET

3/15/2020

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What Syria Ought to Teach America About Competition with Russia by Aaron Stein

Supporting Joint Warfighting with Mission-Level Simulations by Robert Richbourg, June Rodriguez, David M. Gohlich, and James N. Bexfield

Horns of a Dilemma: Allies and American Foreign Policy with Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Kimberly Field  
RUSSIA:
Russia’s Su-57 Stealth Fighter Has Problems

By Caleb Larson, The National Interest: "All the cards are stacked against the Su-57 — the price of oil is low, it’s engines are no better than its predecessors, and the current airframes it would replace are doing just fine."
https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/even-coronavirus-couldnt-stop-the-2nd-us-carrier-visit-to-vietnam/
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RUSSIAN-US RIVALRY OVER ETHNIC STRATAGEM ABROAD:  GROUND ZERO IS BLACK SEA & MOBILE NUCLEAR REACTORS

3/8/2020

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Russia’s Modernization Programs for Strategic Nuclear Bombers
By Mark B. Schneider, The Daily Beast:  Putin’s Russia has been modernizing its strategic nuclear bomber strike capability for two decades. Initially, this involved upgrading the Soviet legacy Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers plus a few newly produced Tu-160s with more advanced nuclear missiles. Not surprisingly, strategic nuclear upgrades were given first priority."

The Russian Understanding of War
By B.A. Friedman, Strategy Bridge: "The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the coercive annexation of the Crimea, and the ongoing support of proxy groups in Eastern Ukraine have induced seizures in western military thought, especially in the United States."
Heather A. Conley, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Matthew Melino write: The Kola Peninsula is the centerpiece of Russia’s military establishment in the western Arctic, and its air and maritime capabilities are essential to homeland defense, Arctic dominance, and global power projection capabilities. The concentration and range of  multi-domain assets— from SLBMs and ICBMs to EW—deployed on and around the Peninsula underscores the Arctic’s strategic value to Russian national interests. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​
RUSSIA:
Russia's Tu-160: The Biggest, Fastest and Heaviest Bomber Ever to Fly

By John Doe, CNN: “Fastest bomber ever built. The largest bomber ever built. Heaviest bomber ever built. All of these monikers refer to the Tupelov Tu-160 “White Swan” (NATO reporting name “Blackjack”), a legacy Soviet airframe that has of late gotten a new lease on life.
Clausewitzian Deep Tracks:
"Guide to Tactics, or the Theory of the Combat"

By Olivia Garard, Strategy Bridge: "On War is not the only text Carl von Clausewitz wrote. An undercited and underread text is “Guide to Tactics, Or the Theory of the Combat.”"
Twenty-five years ago, the Dayton Accords ended the fractious ethnic violence in the Balkans, Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II. Yet Bosnia and Herzegovina remains the most fragile country in southeastern Europe, argue Ivana Stradner and Max Frost in a RealClearWorld op-ed. Russia’s current strategy of using Bosnia’s religious and ethnic divisions to foment instability is working. To prevent a new and costly conflict in Bosnia, the West needs to confront Russia’s growing influence. Learn more here.
In recent weeks, Russia has absorbed two major setbacks: a falling out with Turkey over Syria and the onset of an oil price war with Saudi Arabia. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands notes that recent events remind us that President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy is transactional, shortsighted, and often counterproductive, similar to that of President Trump’s statecraft. Mortgaging the future for short-term gains isn’t a winning strategy, but it’s an approach that Putin and Trump seem to have in common. Continue here.
Post-Soleimani, Russia's Role Will Grow in Iran's Geopolitical Thinking
By Emil Avdaliani, March 13, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: US-Iran relations reached a nadir following the killing by US drone strike of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. As Iran’s isolation grows, its link to Russia is likely to strengthen. Moscow can use Iran’s geopolitical weakness to its own economic advantage by making large sales of Russian military hardware to the Islamic Republic and encouraging deeper cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and Tehran. At the same time, Russia will use the death of Soleimani to constrain Iranian troop activities on the Syrian battlefield and will generally limit Damascus’s dependence on Iran.

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Nuclear Threats Are Growing. How Should U.S. Missile Defenses Be Upgraded?
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "When future historians analyze U.S. security policies during the early decades of the 21st century, they may be hard-pressed to explain what policymakers were thinking."
Dragons and snakes stalk us
On American Grand Strategy
By Alex J. Beckstrand, Strategy Bridge: "... How are American strategists and foreign policy thinkers performing with regard to these grand strategy principles?"
Why We Need the W76-2 Low Yield Nuke
By Adam Lowther, Breaking Defense: "A low-yield submarine launched ballistic missile provides the United States with an independent credible capability the Russians actually fear."
RUSSIA:
Russia’s First Upgraded Borei-Class Ballistic Missile Sub

By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: “The nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) Knyaz Vladimir (Prince Vladimir), the Russian Navy’s first upgraded Project 955A Borei (A) II-class (“North Wind”) or Dolgorukiy-class boomer, will likely be commissioned in April or May of this year, according to a Russian defense industry source.
Pentagon Awards Contracts to Design Mobile Nuclear Reactor
By Aaron Mehta, Defense News: "The Pentagon on Monday issued three contracts to start design work on mobile, small nuclear reactors, as part of a two-step plan towards achieving nuclear power for American forces at home and abroad."
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Winter 2019 Issue
Black Sea conflicts: Militarization and peacebuilding
The sheer density of protracted conflicts in the Black Sea region makes it particularly exposed to the geopolitical ambitions of regional and global powers. The rapid militarization in Russia-controlled territories in recent years has only added fuel to the fire, dramatically increasing security concerns and underscoring the need for the West and its allies in the region to address the so-called frozen conflicts.
Read article
All eyes on Moscow as Erdogan and Putin meet for Syria talks
Gönül Tol

Running around in circles: How Saudi Arabia is losing its war in Yemen to Iran
Nadwa Al-Dawsari

The Shift to Majoritarian Politics and Sectarianism in India: Domestic and International Responses
Roshni Kapur, Nazneen Mohsina
How Iran’s regime set off a coronavirus bomb on its own economy
Saeed Ghasseminejad -- New York Post
The coronavirus has shattered any hope of the Iranian economy clawing out from under two years of deep recession. To the ruling regime’s chagrin, the virus has begun to adversely affect precisely those sectors that seemed poised for growth after weathering the return of US sanctions. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Iranian economy contracted 4.8 percent in 2018 and 9.5 percent in 2019. The closest thing to good news was that both the IMF and the World Bank forecasted zero growth in 2020. Read More

Sharpening the Iran File
Clifford D. May and Richard Goldberg — FDD's Foreign Podicy
The deal President Obama cut with Iran’s rulers provided them with billions of dollars and a “patient pathway” to the acquisition of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to targets anywhere on the planet. President Trump withdrew from that deal and, in its place, initiated a “maximum pressure” campaign of economic sanctions intended to change the regime’s behavior — if not change the regime itself. Listen Here

The UN’s Selective Outrage on Occupied Territories
Brenda Shaffer, Svante Cornell and Jonathan Schanzer — Real Clear World
Yesterday during remarks at the AIPAC annual conference, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo referred to the recent publication by the UN Human Rights Office of a database of companies that operate in the West Bank. Pompeo defined the report as “a real threat” that “only serves to facilitate the BDS movement and delegitimize Israel.” Pompeo declared that the United States will take actions on behalf of the “members of our business community that are being threatened by this release.” Read More
US-India helicopter deal deepens vital partnership
Bradley Bowman, Cleo  Paskal and Major Liane "Trixie" Zivitski — Defense News
Due to American and Indian negotiators’ failure to reach a trade agreement, some media reports panned President Donald Trump’s visit last week to India as more show than substance. Yet a closer look at the U.S.-India defense deals finalized during the trip shows that the visit facilitated deeper security cooperation with a critical U.S. partner in Asia. Washington and New Delhi used the presidential visit to announce India’s decision to purchase more than $3 billion in defense equipment. Read More
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CASPIAN REPORT:  THE MIDDLE EAST FOR 2020

3/3/2020

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THE CHINESE NAVY SEEKS THE PHILIPPINES & CHINESE POLITICAL WAR

2/28/2020

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China’s Navy Shipbuilders Are ‘Outbuilding Everybody’
By Dave Makichuk, Asia Times: "Welcome to another headache for the Pentagon — it appears China has grasped accelerated shipbuilding technologies and related aircraft development as its march toward an imposing blue water navy continues unabated."
The PRC’s Cautious Stance on the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
By Yamazaki Amane, China Brief: "... the United States is not alone. Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Abe Shinzo has advocated Japan’s own “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy,” which he has discussed since 2016. This concept emphasizes economic development assistance and infrastructure construction, promotion of the rule of law, and freedom of trade. It particularly emphasizes maritime security and freedom of navigation—which connect directly to the territorial disputes that are a key point of ongoing contention between Japan and China."
CHINA:
China Unveils Latest Z-10 Attack Helicopter Variant

By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: “Chinese state-owned media released images of a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Zhishengji-10 (Z-10) attack helicopter fitted with new engine exhaust outlets."
Five Reasons the U.S. Army Deserves
to Be First in Line for More Modernization Funding

By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “Army leaders saw what was coming and gave up on increasing the size of their force over a year ago. Instead, they opted to spend what discretionary resources they had on modernizing their weapons and networks. Many of the Army’s current weapons first entered the force in the 1980s; the service is long overdue for a technology refresh."
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-philippines-alliance-dying-123841 
Insufficient missile defense funding would leave Americans vulnerable
Bradley Bowman — Defense News
The U.S. Missile Defense Agency submitted its report on unfunded priorities to Congress last week, which includes a number of priorities worth more than $1.1 billion. The list demonstrates the tangible consequences of a flat Pentagon budget request and provides a road map for lawmakers to ensure that the U.S. homeland and America’s forward-deployed troops have sufficient missile defense protection. The Trump administration requested $705.4 billion for the Department of Defense for fiscal 2021, a level that fails to keep pace with inflation. Read More
China’s political warfare strategy takes hit from coronavirus
David Maxwell — Washington Examiner
The Wuhan coronavirus, or SARS-CoV-2 as the World Health Organization has named it and the Chinese would prefer it to be called, may be on the verge of becoming a pandemic. If it continues to spread, it may take a tragic toll on human life around the world. It is already having economic effects such as bringing down stock market prices and causing capital to evaporate. It is possible geostrategic relations will be altered in ways no one has anticipated. Read More
How The Revolutionary Guards Could Reshape Iran
Jonathan Schanzer – Quoted by Ilan Berman – The National Interest
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HOW TO ESTABLISH CREDIBILITY WITH MOSCOW

2/11/2020

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America's New Defense Budget with Matt Vallone
Top 5 things to watch in Congress’ 2021 defense budget hearings
 Mackenzie Eaglen | Defense One
 The Pentagon has said that the FY21 budget will make the national defense strategy irreversible, but military top brass has been forced to make challenging program decisions under declining top lines.
How to Respond to Russia’s INF Treaty Violation
By Gary Schmitt, RealClearDefense: “When The New York Times reported that Russia had likely deployed a nuclear-armed cruise missile in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.”

The Imperative of the Offense on the Future Battlefield
By Bill Hix & Robert Simpson, Modern War Institute: “The modern slaughters of World Wars I and II are modern demonstrations that when great powers fight symmetrically, the result is costly, even globally catastrophic. While America avoided catastrophe during the Cold War, the potential for great-power conflict and its consequences have returned."
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​New U.S. Weapon Strengthens Nuclear Deterrence of Moscow
SDI: A Basis for a Multi-Layered Defense Against Ballistic Missiles
Can Warfighters Remain the Masters of AI? by Harrison Schramm and Jeff Kline
Report Finds U.S. Defense Industrial Base in Decline
By Yasmin Tadjdeh, National Defense Magazine: "The defense industrial base is on a negative trajectory as companies grapple with deteriorating conditions for industrial security and the availability and cost of skilled labor and materials, according to a new report released Feb. 5."
Navy’s Unmanned Growler Is a Look at War’s Future
By Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics: "The Navy converted manned combat jets into unmanned ones. Nobody had any idea they were doing it."
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AMERICA'S FUTURE CONFLICT WITH CHINA EMERGES; WHAT THE COLD WAR TAUGHT DEFENSE ABOUT UNITY OF PURPOSE; aei's scholars on putin, war budgets and german political unity

2/6/2020

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CHINA:
NORTHCOM Links Chinese Hypersonic Glider to Nuclear Program

By Steve Trimble, Aviation Week: "All the U.S. military’s previous assessments of China’s nuclear arsenal included a mix of ICBMs, with silo-based DF-4 and DF-5 rockets, along with road-mobile DF-31, DF-31A and the recently unveiled DF-41 missiles. The warheads for each missile are known to include several multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles, with maneuverable reentry vehicles also believed to be in development or already deployed."
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CHINA:
China’s Modernizing Military

By Lindsay Maizland, Council on Foreign Relations: "The People’s Liberation Army is aiming to become the dominant force in the Asia-Pacific, strengthening China’s hand toward Taiwan and international disputes in the South China Sea.
China and Nuclear Restraint
By Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): "China increasingly finds itself depicted as the bête noire of nuclear arms control. The U.S. government has said the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty collapsed because of Chinese actions outside the treaty and not merely Russian violations inside it."

China’s Growing 5G Dominance Is a Disaster for U.S. Security
By Charlie Kirk, The Hill: "China’s influence over the fifth generation of wireless technology, more commonly known as 5G, is a lot more important than some TV commercials might have you believe."

Is the U.S. Public Sleepwalking Into a Sino-Centric World Order?
By Lulio Vargas-Cohen, RealClearDefense: "While the U.S. is at a cros sroads in navigating the most important foreign policy issue of the century, the U.S. public remains unengaged about the importance of getting U.S.-China relations right."
Three Huge Defense Threats for Which U.S. Is Woefully Under-Prepared
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "The United States outspends every other nation on defense, and as a result has the best trained, best equipped military in the world. The joint force regularly undertakes missions that no other country's military would be capable of executing. However, there are existential defense threats for which the nation is not prepared . . ."
Not Another Peloponnesian War: Great Power Collaboration?
By Jack Bowers, Strategy Bridge: "The narrative of great-power competition relies largely on a realist discourse reflected in the well-known plot of the Thucydides Trap."

Options for a Joint Support Service
By Jason Hughes, Divergent Options: ". . . without dynamic modernization solutions the DoD will be unable to sharpen the American Military’s competitive edge and realize the National Defense Strategy’s vision of a more lethal, resilient, and rapidly innovating Joint Force. While DoD’s strategic guidance has evolved, its force structure has not."

The State Department’s Dysfunction Predates Pompeo
By Kori Schake, Bloomberg Opinion: "Bad as he is, the Secretary of Swagger isn’t entirely to blame for the crisis of American diplomacy."
Why We Need A New Cold War Strategic Approach
If the United States cannot better align its actions, messaging, and strategy and do it in a unified fashion — as it did during the Cold War — it risks reductions to military readiness and our ability to effectively compete with adversaries.
 In a new AEI report, Hal Brands discusses how the US can apply lessons from Cold War political warfare to modern competition with China and Russia. An understanding of political warfare is essential to succeed in the intellectual and geopolitical aspects of great-power competition today. Read the full report here.
Mackenzie Eaglen assesses the winners and losers of the Pentagon report. Due to difficult trade-offs by the Pentagon, it now needs a partner in the legislative branch. Finish it here.
Hal Brands in a Bloomberg op-ed. When we argue about Germany in 1990, we’re arguing about what America has done in the world since then — and what it should be doing today.  Finish it here.
Leon Aron in an Atlantic op-ed. Putin can’t imagine Russia without himself at the center, especially when the regime he built is on the verge of destabilization. Read it here.
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REVIEW OF US COMMITMENT IN AFRICA

2/6/2020

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Rwanda: How long can a dictator’s malign acts go unpunished by an uncritical media?
Roger Bate | AEIdeas
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U.S., AFRICA:
AFRICOM’s Assessment of U.S. Security Challenges in Africa

By Yacqub Ismail, International Policy Digest: “In the 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy, which serves as a guidance for the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. government prioritized addressing security challenges from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as well as violent extremist groups. AFRICOM’s new strategic approach to secure its interests on the continent are guided by the following: partner for success; compete to win; and, maintain pressure on non-state actors."
Krulak Revisited:
The Three-Block War, Strategic Corporals, and the Future Battlefield

By Franklin Annis, Modern War Institute: “In the 1990s, Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps Gen Charles C. Krulak advanced the idea of what he called a “three-block war” to explain battlefield realities in an era of failed and failing nation-states. Not only was the Marine Corps operating in complex environments and executing a range of missions—including humanitarian aid and peacekeeping, alongside mid-intensity conflict—it was also operating in an atmosphere of pervasive media coverage."
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THE NEW CHAOS OF WAR:  URBAN WAR & HOW WASHINGTON DID IT

2/5/2020

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Mattis and Stavridis on Military-to-Civilian Leadership
By John Waters, Omaha World-Herald: “How did George Washington pull together the revolutionary army? It was very boring. It was listen and learn. (The leader) is actually there to coach them and be with them”: Jim Mattis said this to me over the phone in early January, noting that he applied the “listen and learn” technique to his own transition from four-star general to secretary of defense."
http://www.amazon.com/UnCivilization-Urban-Geopolitics-Time-Chaos/dp/1892998181/ref=sr
Remarks on the book by its author   It is impossible to formulate the answers to the complex strategic uncertainties we now face unless we first ask the appropriate questions. This is what I have attempted to do in my new book, UnCivilization: Urban Geopolitics in a Time of Chaos:1 to frame questions. And to postulate paths to the answers.

When, for example, will the modern world abandon its obsessive - and self-destructive - preoccupation with the tactical threat of terrorism, and begin to focus on the greater strategic context? How do we deal with the fragility of our now-profound dependence on energy, and the attendant long logistical lines to supply it, for every function of civilization, progress, and survival?

How and when will the lights of the great urban spread of mankind begin to flicker and falter? Will they shine brightly into the night in new places, or be sustained still in the cities which we have burnished with our familiarity? What follows when the ships and their cargoes of oil and goods come with less frequency? What happens when the surge in population peaks and suddenly goes into rapid decline? What happens to the balanced nation-state when the preponderance of the world's population lives in cities?

Will all or some of this happen soon? Will it happen at all? And what will be the result of all of this?

Is transformational change already upon us? Have we, in the midst of our striving for greater "democracy", emerged into a situation where - in most of our modern societies - the greater populations are subjects to their governments, rather than the intended goal that governments should be subject to the people? Is this part of the sclerosis of accumulated laws and entitlements?

Change for the most part occurs inexorably over the seemingly gentle sea of history; grinding, like the mills of God, slowly, but exceeding fine. What makes change tolerable - and strategic affairs manageable - is that this evolution usually appears to occur imperceptibly and with the calmness of moss growing on old logs. Sudden change causes disorientation and panic, both to individuals and societies.

The period into which we are now embarking will involve much sudden change. The familiarity of old routines, established forms, and familiar hierarchies will, in many respects, disappear. It is, indeed, already happening. And it has happened before. It is how societies, cultures, and civilizations emerge or evaporate. Individuals and societies can, however, adapt to new realities, both good and bad. In the process, they often forget the paths and triggers which led to the dramatic watersheds thrust upon them. Most people, and most societies, do not have a conscious view of their past or their future; they merely react. They are swept in a storm of reaction, and have no control over it, no understanding of it. They are the last leaves of autumn swept by blustering air, whose movement was dictated by the pull of a distant moon, the heat of a distant sun. Like the leaves, they question not the cause of their present situation, even if they bemoan their fate.

I wrote this new book, UnCivilization, to gain a measure of our present shape, as a human society, and to understand whence the gale has its origins, and whither it will dispatch us.
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EXAMINING THE STATE OF US MISSILE DEFENSES & WHY THE NAVY MUST INTEGRATE TO TAKE ON CHINA IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

2/5/2020

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Iranian Missiles and Americans Exposed
By Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, RealClearDefense: “President Trump boasted in military in his State of the Union address Wednesday night. Trump is right that the military has received significant investments during his tenure. But recent events also reveal where there are vulnerabilities."
U.S. Missile Defense Woefully Prepared for 21st Century Threats
By Jared Whitley, RealClearDefense: “Whereas mutually assured destruction kept the world relatively safe during the Cold War, the proliferation of nuclear capabilities has turned Planet Earth into a ticking, radioactive timebomb."

To Deter China, the Naval Services Must Integrate
By Mike Gallagher, War on the Rocks: “Change on the scale envisioned by the National Defense Strategy isn't always easy, or pretty. Observers of American strategy often wonder how the United States will focus on great power competition when it cannot escape the gravitational pull of the Middle East. This is a worthy topic of debate and causes me no small amount of consternation as well. But even as Washington might look for ways to bring its commitments in the Middle East to a more sustainable level, let's not ignore the lessons simmering conflicts there and elsewhere have for facing down great powers in the Indo-Pacific and Europe."
U.S.-China Competition in Asia: Who Risks Wins
By Sam Roggeveen, the interpreter: “The two key questions for America’s allies in Asia are how long do they want to maintain a U.S.-centered strategic posture, and when do they start preparing for a post-American future?"

China in the Levant
By John Toolan Jr., John Bird & Harry Hoshovsky, RealClearDefense: “Over the past decade, we’ve seen great power jockeying return to the Eastern Mediterranean with China using its deep pockets to secure influence with key U.S. allies as a means to further its global ambitions and adversely impact the United States’ national security interests."
Richard Matlock writes: Over the past five years, missile threats have evolved far more rapidly than conventional wisdom had predicted. […]The 2019 Missile Defense Review called for a comprehensive approach to countering regional missiles of all kinds and from whatever source, as well as the increasingly complex intercontinental ballistic missiles from rogue states. But programs and budgets have not yet aligned with the policy. The upcoming defense budget submission presents an important opportunity to address these new and complex challenges. – Defense News
The First Element–Leadership and Combat Power
By Jeff Barta & Patrick O'Keefe, The Company Leader:  "What does it take to bring the full power of the U.S. Army to bear upon enemies of America?"

Thinking Before Shooting: Intelligence and Special Operations
By Steve Balestrieri, SOFREP: “The last 16 years have seen our forces fighting a different kind of war, with a different set of parameters. But we shouldn’t forget the hard lessons learned through the decades of the Cold War. Because we’re going to need them."

Whose National Interest? Which Foreign Policy?
By Michael Colebrook, Strategy Bridge: "Foreign policy consensus is rare in America, just as moral consensus is the stuff of fairy tales. However, difficulty in reaching agreement  is no excuse to succumb to relativism or blind fatalism."
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HOW CHINA ENVISIONS WAR WITH THE US & EXAMINING THE WORLD'S LARGEST NUCLEAR PROLIFERATORS, IRAN AND CHINA

1/24/2020

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“Unrestricted Warfare is a book on military strategy written in 1999 by two colonels in the People's Liberation Army, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. Its primary concern is how a nation such as China can defeat a technologically superior opponent through a variety of means.”


David Rennie, The Economist magazine in Beijing; writes the “Chaguan” column; in re: Artificial intelligence; the contest between the US and China. From the first Cold War: how adversaries can agree not to destroy each other: even when you don't trust each other at all, you can nonetheless discuss a new technology that could abruptly change everything, destroy everything. Now we have three, not two, parties: Russia, US, China.  Even during the Cold War, you could send an inspector to see what was being done; but no way to see an algorithm.  . . . Unenforceable compliance.  We’re left making a distinction: countries’ saying it’s best not to have this technology; but among major powers (not rogue powers), it’s possible for large countries to agree that biowar, for example, is unimaginably dangerous & stupid, just not worth having. . . .  The PLA is focussed on nonnuclear war.
..  ..  ..  
In 1999 the Chinese released a book entitled, Unrestricted Warfare. Commentary: “. . .  PLA doctrine. . . . has focused on developing a joint operation doctrine for fighting limited, high-intensity conflicts using high-tech weapons.”
  
https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg614af.10?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
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