ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND AMERICAN'S WORKING CLASS, OREN CASS INTERVIEW; WHERE DID ALL THE WORKING CLASS MEN GO
Economic Policy and the Working Class: An Interview with Oren Cass
W. Bradford Wilcox, Institute for Family Studies
Tucker Carlson’s recent monologue on the “Market and the Family,” in which he argued that the contemporary economy has undercut the strength and stability of working-class families, has sparked a major debate among conservatives. Some conservatives—including David French and Ben Shapiro—have taken issue with his argument. IFS senior fellow W. Bradford Wilcox recently spoke to Oren Cass, a senior fellow at The Manhattan Institute and author of the new book, The Once and Future Worker: A Vision for the Renewal of Work in America, about this important debate. The following interview has been edited for clarity. Read more here....
What Drives High Health Care Costs: Friedman Fundamentals
with Milton Friedman via PolicyEdThe fundamental reason for high health care expenses is third-party payments. Most payments to physicians are made not by the patient but by a third-party — an insurance company or governmental body. By eliminating most third-party payments and restoring the role of insurance to protecting against major medical catastrophes, health care cost and spending can be reduced.
Why Economics Must Get Broader Before It Gets Better
Mohamed El-Erian warns that the profession is ignoring its own failures and overlooking other disciplines' insights at its peril.
Time to Replace the Fed’s ‘Floor System’
Peter Ireland, E21
Immediately following its January policy meeting, the Federal Reserve released a Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation and Balance Sheet Normalization. The Statement, which Chair Jerome Powell also referred to in his latest Semiannual Report to Congress, confirms that the Fed will continue targeting interest rates using the new “floor system” first introduced in December 2015. Read more here....
NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN MONETARY ECONOMICS: AFTER TIGHT MONEY & JOHN TAYLOR GIVES ANALYSIS FOR 2019 ECONOMY
JOEL KOTKIN, WENDELL COX
Where Millennials Really Go for Jobs
Contrary to media hype, tech firms and young workers aren’t flocking to “superstar” cities.
The solution to capitalist inequality: Radical markets
Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest
The problems the radical Left seeks to address are real. But their solutions are not nearly radical enough. Local experiments, rather than irreversible federal schemes, are the way to go.
Yes, We Should Fear Budget Deficits
Brian Riedl, E21
In the past two years, the President and Congress have enacted $2.5 trillion in tax cuts and another $2.5 trillion in higher discretionary spending (assuming both are fully extended over the decade). Annual budget deficits are about to surpass $1 trillion and are on their way to $2 trillion within a decade. The national debt has more than doubled from $10 trillion to $21 trillion since 2008, and is projected to surpass $37 trillion within the next decade. Over the next 30 years, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts an $84 trillion avalanche of new debt. Read more here....
Trade, Technology, And Jobs: How To Think About Free Trade
by John B. Taylor via PolicyEdThe consequences of free trade are very similar to what happens when a new technology is invented. In both cases goods and services get better and more affordable for everyone, new jobs are created, and some jobs are replaced. So, the next time someone proposes new trade barriers, imagine instead that they had proposed outlawing a new invention.
Trump's Ideal Nominee for the Fed
Editorial of The New York Sun | February 4, 2019
The link between wages and productivity is strong
Michael Strain | Expanding Economic Opportunity for More Americans
This paper outlines the wage-setting process and the conceptual issues of critical importance to any empirical investigation of the link between compensation and productivity. It presents recent evidence suggesting that the link between productivity and wages is strong.
The case for growth
James Pethokoukis | Commentary
Growth works, improving everyone’s standard of living, if not always equally, at least steadily. Growth signifies the evolutionary and upward surge of mankind, evident in everything from modern medicine to interstellar space travel. And a policy geared toward increasing economic growth — pursued attentively and unapologetically — will save the US.
India To Become Bigger Than China Eventually: Raghuram Rajan
featuring Raghuram Rajan via The Times of India
India will eventually surpass China in economic size and will be in a better position to create the infrastructure being promised by the Chinese side in South Asian countries, former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan said on Tuesday.
WEF 2019: Raghuram Rajan Says Indian Economy May Slow Down If A Coalition Govt Is Formed
featuring Raghuram Rajan via Business Today
Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan said there was a possibility that the Indian economy might slow down if a coalition government came to power after the 2019 Lok Sabha election. In an exclusive interview to India Today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Rajan spoke on several issues that affected the Indian economy
India's Central Bank Needs Far Bigger Capital Buffer, Study Says
quoting Raghuram Rajan via Bloomberg
India’s central bank has insufficient capital, much less a surplus to hand over to the government, a new study shows.
Cleaning Up Indore - An Excerpt From Raghuram Rajan's New Book
with Raghuram Rajan via NDTVAt the same time, we do know that enhanced trade and technological change transmitted through markets have led to the loss of middle-income jobs and weakened the economic basis for the community in many parts of the developed world. It may be this, coupled with the flight of those who can leave, that is more responsible for the social disintegration of the community.
CHINA'S NATIONAL ECONOMETRICS ARE MANIPULATED, THE NECESSITY OF INCLUSIVE GROWTH & INDIA'S FORMER CENTRAL BANKER RAJAN ON ECONOMIC GROWTH WITHOUT JOBS
China can’t get its economic story straight
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
China announced its 2018 economic results Sunday night. They featured 6.4 percent annualized real gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter. Real growth was announced at 6.8 percent in the first quarter. But do we know Q1’s 6.8 was right?
ASIA TIMES: FIXING CHINA'S NATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICIES
China Global Investment Tracker
Derek Scissors | China Global Investment Tracker
Is All Economic Growth Created Equal?
Oren Cass, The Bulwark
Imagine a button that would instantly double the productivity of the labor market’s most productive quintile, but also cause the least productive quintile to drop out of the labor force. Would you push the button? The top quintile is more productive to begin with, so the gain from doubling its productivity exceeds the loss at the bottom—the tradeoff leaves our economy more productive and output higher. Read more here....
PHOTO: ANN SCHWARTZ & MILTON FRIEDMAN: BOTH KNEW THE LIMITATIONS OF MONETARIST THOUGHT.
Modern Monetary Theory is a joke that’s not funny
Michael R. Strain | Bloomberg Opinion
The core assertion of Modern Monetary Theory -- that a government that prints its own money can always pay its bills -- is correct. Yet advocates of MMT fail to fully grapple with the inflationary risks that would come with treating government debt as wholly unimportant. With the central bank dedicated to financing the government, the task of managing inflation would become a fiscal matter, creating economic, political, and distributional problems far greater than those MMT seeks to solve. These issues are further discussed in this week's "Political Economy Podcast" with AEI scholars James Pethokoukis and Stan Veuger.
What is Modern Monetary Theory?
James Pethokoukis and Stan Veuger | "Political Economy Podcast"
On his latest podcast, James Pethokoukis talks Modern Monetary Theory with Stan Veuger. The two discuss why MMT has suddenly become so popular, the theory’s intellectual origins, whether it has anything new to say about economics, and the political and economic risks of using the theory as a basis for monetary — and, consequently, fiscal — policy.
Why Modern Monetary Theory is an unserious idea for an unserious time
James Pethokoukis | The Week
Is Modern Monetary Theory a fiscal cheat code for funding major expansion and creation of federal spending programs? The core observation -- that the government can always print money to pay its debt -- is true. But in practice MMT represents a mirror version of the Laffer Curve obsession seen among some on the right. Ultimately, policy decisions involve choices and trade-offs — and those presented under MMT are not appealing.
Debt denial is a threat to America
Desmond Lachman | The Wall Street Journal
Contrary to the claims of Modern Monetary Theory's advocates, deficits do matter. There is no guarantee that the US government will be able to borrow at low rates indefinitely, and with the deficit currently exceeding 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the debt exceeding 100 percent of GDP, the debt-to-GDP ratio is set to increase indefinitely. Increased deficits will lead investors to demand higher yields on government bonds, especially if they see higher risk of inflation or default. Taking these facts into account, MMT is a recipe for fiscal ruin.
Modern Monetary Theory and policy
Stan Veuger | AEI Economic Perspectives
Proponents of so-called Modern Monetary Theory emphasize that governments can always avoid defaulting on existing obligations denominated in a currency they themselves create. In many instances, they extrapolate from this correct observation to sweeping claims about the proper size of government and the role of monetary and fiscal policy. To the extent that these claims go beyond those of mainstream monetary doves, policymakers would be unwise to rely on them.
Modern Monetary Theory’s central idea is neither new nor helpful
Stan Veuger | AEIdeas
Exposing the flaws of Modern Monetary Theory: A short-read Q&A with Stan Veuger
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
Planet Earth to Modern Monetary theorists
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas
Hopefully Modern Monetary Theory is but another passing fad with little policy relevance. If not, we should fear for our children who will have to pick up the pieces of yet another misguided economic policy experiment.
John Taylor Sees 'Pretty Strong' U.S. Economy As 'Promising'
interview with John B. Taylor via Bloomberg
Hoover Institution fellow John Taylor discusses the Federal Reserve's rate path, US economic strength, and the partial US government shutdown.
The euro’s unhappy 20th birthday
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
Can the Euro Survive?
Robert Samuelson, Washington Post
Life Is Getting Harder for Central Banks
Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg
New Hoover Press Book Examines Causes Of 2008 Financial Crisis
via Hoover Daily Report
In the new Hoover Institution Press book, Gambling with Other People’s Money, Russ Roberts argues that rescuing rich people from the consequences of their decisions with money coming from average Americans is bad for democracy.
Do Economic Booms Die Of Old Age?
quoting Robert E. Hall via Bloomberg
Ben Bernanke got a big laugh from economists in Atlanta on Jan. 4. A few minutes after Janet Yellen said, “I don’t think expansions just die of old age,” he replied, “I like to say they get murdered.” All right, not that funny. But the nerdy repartee between the past two Federal Reserve chairs at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association reveals how central bankers think about recessions—and says something about how likely it is that the U.S. will tip into one over the next year.
The Reinvention Of Economics After The Crash
quoting John H. Cochrane via Quartz
Economics is searching for its third act. Over the past few decades, the field had become more self-assured, harnessed more mathematics, and moved further away from social sciences such as psychology in the direction of hard sciences such as physics. Macroeconomists, who are concerned with understanding the economy in its broadest sense, were in a self-congratulatory mood.
An authority on Civil-Military Relations; Southwest Asian Political Economy, and Pentagon Acquisition Reform .
KEYNES VS. HAYEK RAP
KEYNES VS. HAYEK RAP ROUND 2