CounterStrikeMedia - MONETARISM & NOMINAL GDP

VULNERABLE US EXTERNAL POSITION UNSUSTAINABLE & THE SOUTH AMERICAN CULT OF THE CORRUPT

8/28/2020

The danger of America ignoring external economic risks
Desmond Lachman | The National Interest
With a wave of debt defaults likely to hit the emerging market economies soon and a sovereign debt crisis brewing in Europe, US economic policymakers should consider shifting their attention to external economic risks. If the past 25 years provide any lessons, these factors can impede the economic performance of the United States.

BEIJING GOES ROGUE AND BAILS OUT IRAN

7/17/2020

The End Of China's "Peaceful Rise"
by Larry Diamond via American Interest
Two generations of American scholars held out hope that China would become “a responsible stakeholder.” In 2020, those hopes have been dashed.

Time to Close the Legal Loopholes that Facilitate Russian Illicit Finance
John Hardie — The National Interest
Following reports that a Russian military intelligence unit offered bounties to kill U.S. troops in Afghanistan, both Democrats and Republicans in Congress are weighing retaliatory sanctions. But as Congress looks to get tougher on Russia, it should not ignore what may be the most effective step Washington could take to punish Putin and counter Russia’s malign influence: closing the legal loopholes that facilitate Russian illicit finance. Congress has a prime opportunity to do just that as part of its annual defense spending bill. Read More

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/07/iran-turns-to-china-shift-to-east-strategy-against-united-states/
●https://www.ynetnews.com/article/Skcqk0Hyv
https://www.timesofisrael.com/china-strategic-accord-could-give-iran-400-billion-boost-up-military-ties/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-envoy-says-white-house-would-use-military-against-iranian-nuclear-program/

DISRUPTIONS, CHAO AND THE MAKING OF FORTUNES; WHAT DRIVES INCOME INEQUALITY IN AMERICA

6/5/2020

The Collapse of Entitlement Federalism
Chris Pope, City Journal
The coronavirus crisis has become a crisis of federalism, as states face plummeting revenues and soaring entitlement obligations. Despite $340 billion in emergency funding through the CARES Act and a $50 billion hike in federal assistance for Medicaid, states remain deep in the red. The National Governors Association has called for an additional $500 billion in “unrestricted fiscal support” to help meet budgetary shortfalls, and House Democrats have made further assistance for states a centerpiece of their proposed $3 trillion HEROES Act. Read more here....

A bad economic idea is back in fashion
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
When something is unsustainable, it will eventually come to an end. Don't expect unsustainable public debt to be any different.

What’s really driven income inequality in America?
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

With low interest rates, should we really ignore budget deficits?
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas

Currency Devaluations Boost No One
John Tamny, RealClearMarkets

Is a UBI Worth the Cost?
Veronique de Rugy, Reason

STATE SPENDING ON POLICE VS. EDUCATION

https://www.amazon.com/Start-Up-Saboteurs-Incompetence-Thinking-Creation/dp/1642796956

CHINESE INFLUENCE IN KOREA, IRAN & TURKEY COLLAPSING

6/2/2020

Iranian military-owned Conglomerate Sets Up Shop in Venezuela

The Old and New Persian Empires
Eliora Katz | Research Analyst

A Chronicle of a Lost Decade Foretold
Yanis Varoufakis drafts a preliminary history of the 2020s, which could end looking nothing – and everything – like the 1930s.

"Why Erdogan Won’t Ask the IMF for Help," Aykan Erdemir and John Lechner, Foreign Policy
"China’s Coercion Threatens ROK-U.S. Alliance," Mathew Ha, FDD Policy Brief
"Wanted: A Strategy for Long-term Peacetime Competition With China," Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic, FDD Policy Brief

Greece said Monday that it is determined to oppose plans by Turkey to expand oil-and-gas exploration in the Mediterranean Sea, in a deepening regional dispute over mineral rights. – Associated Press

Ryan Gingeras writes: Whatever does happen, Turkey’s present commitment to its “blue homeland” policies appears contingent upon two critical factors. Firstly, Turkey’s maritime posturing, as conjured up by Gürdeniz, Yaycı, and others, has captured the imagination of a broad swath of the Turkish political establishment. Calls for a determined defense of the country’s expansive “mavi vatan” echoes the combative, independent spirit of Ankara’s contemporary foreign policy. At present, there is little incentive for Turkey to deviate course. – War on the Rocks

Michael Rubin writes: If Egypt seeks to pressure Ethiopia over the Great Renaissance Dam, the best way for Cairo to move forward would be to take diplomatic or economic action against the dam’s foreign financiers. But Sisi’s current approach will fail: The weapons his government has allegedly provided the Somali government are far more likely to end up in the hands of anti-Egyptian radicals than those who seek to counter Ethiopia. Perhaps, for the sake of regional security, it is time for the Trump administration to stop turning a blind eye to Egypt’s weapons trade. – Washington Examiner

Mohamed Eljarh writes: As Moscow seeks to strengthen its engagement with the eastern Libya bloc and Ankara builds its military footprint and influence in Tripoli, Erdogan and Putin could repeat their attempt to hijack international diplomacy on Libya with an Astana-like process, presumably favoring Turkish and Russian interests over Libyan ones where convenient. If there is no major shift in dynamic, it is these two countries that will dictate the future of Libya. So far, as the United States continues to exhibit lack of interest or serious engagement and Europe remains divided without a clear common policy on Libya, it remains likely that Turkey and Russia will continue to occupy their roles as shapers of Libya, especially if Russia continues to increase its military and political involvement at the same pace. – Washington Institute

Dmitriy Frolovskiy writes: Reliance on the impartial intermediary approach and realpolitik might be effective to an extent as a way of building bridges with autocratic incumbents, but evidence suggests that Russia’s leadership fails to fully grasp the potential for growing popular unrest in the Middle East. Prone to disruptions, the Kremlin’s approach could still deliver geopolitical gains in the years to come, as signs suggest has been the case with Russia’s growing military presence in Libya. But the region’s changing dynamics might not only offset these gains, but also turn Russia’s involvement into a costly endeavor, wounding it both at home and abroad. – Middle East Institute

Who Has the World’s Largest Economy?
Jeffrey Frankel shows that the United States remains far ahead of China in terms of the metric that really counts.

AUTARKY = SELF DESTRUCTION

5/19/2020

Wanted: A Strategy for Long-term Peacetime Competition With China

China’s Coercion Threatens ROK-U.S. Alliance
Mathew Ha | Research Analyst

On the road to deflation?
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

The Federal Reserve's everything bubble
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

The economic self harm of autarky: Are we really talking about America making everything it needs in America?
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

AIER

Zingales On The Rule Of Economists
by David R. Henderson via EconLog
In the spirit of Clemenceau, Huntington (1981) claims that in a democracy, the ultimate responsibility for a country’s military strategy belongs to the civilian political leadership. If, instead, the military controls the political decisions, it is a military dictatorship. In the same way, the ultimate responsibility for a country’s economic policy should belong to the political leadership. If economists control it, it is a technocratic dictatorship.

The Federal Reserve’s everything bubble
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

TRACKING DOWN SUDAN'S HIDDEN INTERNATIONAL CASH, A LOOK AT LIBYA'S TRIBALISM & MILITARY EDUCATION FOR THE LONG WAR OR GREAT COMPETITION WITH CHINA

5/15/2020

The Classicist: Dark Days Ahead
interview with Victor Davis Hanson via The Classicist
On political polarization, the debt reckoning, and Chinese aggression.

What does Libya’s ‘Syrianization’ scenario mean for key actors?
Turkey may have gotten kudos for tipping the balance in Libya, but Russian countermoves raise the prospect of Turkish collaboration with Russia in the North African country, which is not to the liking of countries that have been giving plaudits to Ankara.
Read More

France: Ratified Law Officially Ends the West Africa CFA Franc. On Wednesday The French Council of Ministers adopted the bill ratifying the end of the CFA franc. The reform will affect the eight member countries of the West African Monetary Union: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. This bill formally transforms the West African currency, which will change its name to eco. The Central Bank of West African States will no longer have to deposit half of its foreign exchange reserves with the Bank of France. African News North Africa Post

South Sudan: Hundreds of Civilians Killed in Tribal Clashes. Violence broke out between the Lou Nuer and Murle tribal groups in the state of Jonglei around the town of Pieri, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross. Three aid workers were killed, hundreds of civilians were injured, and thousands were displaced from their homes. The violence comes after the government failed to appoint a governor for the newly-created state. David Shearer, head of the UN Mission in South Sudan, stated, “We strongly urge the Government and other parties to compromise and agree on these critical positions.” Reuters

Tracking Down Sudan's Secret Cash by Alberto M. Fernandez

Don’t Bailout Tehran’s Precision Guided Munitions Project

MDA: All-Domain C2 Key To Countering Hypersonic Missiles
“We’ll take anybody’s sensors,” MDA’s John Bier said, “as long as it contributes to the missile warning, missile defense and space domain environment.”

Haftar, Tribal Power, and the Battle for Libya by Alison Pargeter

Scoping the Future of Education in National Security and Beyond with Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Frank Kelley, Sae Schatz, Jason Tyszko, and Ryan Evans

Sowing a new global garden A U.S.-led “economic prosperity network” could be a good start

Keep Expectations Modest for Iraq’s New Government by Douglas A. Ollivant

Pulling Troops Out of Africa Could Mean Another Endless War by Herman J. Cohen

JOHN B TAYLOR'S NEW BOOK FROM HOOVER INSTITUTION

5/7/2020

Fiscal policy and the major entitlements: An introduction

Hoover Institution Press Publishes Strategies For Monetary Policy, Edited By John H. Cochrane And John B. Taylor
via Hoover Daily Report
The Hoover Institution will publish a new volume, edited by senior fellows John H. Cochrane and John B. Taylor, that reviews the strategies, tools, and communication practices the Federal Reserve system deploys to shape monetary policies for its dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. Strategies for Monetary Policy is drawn from a May 3, 2019, conference at the Hoover Institution featuring economists, financial experts, and Federal Reserve policy makers.

ABOUT THE BOOK

As spending surges and interest rates plummet, is a new age of monetary policy upon us? Desmond Lachman warns against excessive monetary loosening in emerging markets

Long road to recovery
Desmond Lachman | Washington Examiner
Since 1945, the United States has experienced 12 economic recessions. However, it has never experienced a recession quite as deep and as sudden as the coronavirus-induced slowdown it is currently facing. While much is still unknown, one fact remains certain: The road to recovery will be long.

The debt cleanup that awaits us
James C. Capretta | RealClearPolicy
President Trump and the rest of the federal government are right to focus their attention on the immediate economic and public health emergency COVID-19 presents. However, when the crisis recedes, the entire federal budget needs recalibration to head off an intractable cycle of rising interest payments crowding out necessary public investments.

The economic cost and spatial diffusion of the opioid crisis, 2009–18

IRAN MOVES TO HELP MADURO, WHILE TEAM TRUMP MOVES AGAINST IRAN

5/2/2020

U.S. Sanctions on Iran: Is Natural Gas Next?

The Impact of Sanctions Two Years After U.S. Withdrawal From the Nuclear Deal

Iran: U.S. Seizes Millions and Disrupts Oil Tanker to Target Quds Force. U.S. authorities charged two Iranian men and seized $12 million in funds used to support the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Thursday. “The Iranian regime and its supporters continue to prioritize the funding of international terrorist organizations over the health and well-being of the Iranian people,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Alireza Miryousefi, spokesman for Iran’s mission to the United Nations, said the United States should be concerned in helping its own citizens, but instead focuses on bullying Iran. AL-Monitor The Washington Post

Strategic Fail: Partnering with Turkey to Counter Iran Would Misread the Region by Blaise Misztal

China squeezes debt repayments from virus-hit nations
Amid the psychological rubble of the Covid-19 crisis, strands of China’s ‘New Silk Roads’ have been fused into a web of debt. What was a high-risk game of loans is now threatening cash-strapped countries as they struggle to combat the deadly coronavirus outbreak. In short, the Belt and Road Initiative has gone from the jewel in Beijing’s foreign policy crown to what many see as a poison chalice during a catastrophic world event. Read More

Iran Is Airlifting Supplies to Venezuela. The Trump Administration Should Move to Block It.
The Islamic Republic can leverage the Maduro regime's ability to access sanctioned goods as payment for its services.

EDMUND PHELPS ON THE COVID RECOVERY

4/13/2020

Williams Says Fed Thinking ‘Hard’ About Yield-Curve Control
Steve Matthews, Bloomberg

How to Reform Unemployment Insurance for a Reopened Economy
Beth Akers, E21
Over the past several weeks, since Covid-19 outbreaks have largely closed down the US economy, 36 million people have lost their jobs and filed for unemployment insurance benefits. For as many as two-thirds of them, a funny thing happened—they got a raise. During normal circumstances, workers laid off from their jobs can get somewhere between 35 and 55 percent of their lost wages replaced by unemployment insurance benefits. Unemployment insurance programs are administered by states rather than the federal government, so the exact benefit depends on where the worker lives and the specific policies adopted in their state.
Read more here....

BRIAN RIEDEL: THE ECONOMICS OF RECOVERY

Emi Nakamura Interview: on Price Dynamics, Monetary Policy, and This ‘Scary Moment in History’
Douglas Clement, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

E21 FISCAL CAPACITY OF STATES

DEFICITS SOARING

The Many New Indicators of a Job Collapse
Michael Strain, Bloomberg

E21: US DEBT BOMB W/ COVID

America's coronavirus nightmare: Debt, deflation, and mass unemployment
Desmond Lachman | The National Interest

Deepak Lal and Market-Oriented Policies

Congress needs to solve the COVID-19 liability problem

Mexico: Economy Goes Deeper Into Recession. The government released a report on Thursday that showed Mexico’s economic activity has declined 1.6% in the first quarter compared to the final three months of 2019. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been criticized by many for not doing enough to help keep the business sector afloat. This decline was the biggest since 2009 and the fifth consecutive quarter of economic contraction. U.S. News & World Report

Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has been criticized in recent weeks for failing to take the effects of the pandemic seriously. Roger Noriega took to the AEIdeas blog to argue that if Mexico mismanages the COVID-19 crisis, it could do collateral damage to an already weakened US economy. President Trump has restricted nonessential crossings at the US borders with Mexico as part of the coronavirus response. However, an abrupt economic downturn in Mexico could have significant consequences at the border and to the bilateral relationship. Read more here.

The debt cleanup that awaits us
James Capretta explains that when the crisis recedes, the entire federal budget needs recalibration to head off an intractable cycle of rising interest payments crowding out necessary public investments.
READ MORE

Forget about a V-shaped recovery
Desmond Lachman | The Bulwark

The toxic combination of a record-high global debt-to-GDP ratio and the deepest worldwide economic recession in the postwar period do not indicate a quick recovery. As policymakers in the US mull opening up the economy in an attempt to prevent further damage, they must recognize that there is no miracle bounce back coming. Even if the virus disappeared tomorrow, the world economy and global financial markets will still be stalked by structural risks.

Washington Uses Sanctions and Indictments Inconsistently When Combating Malicious Cyber Activity

Conversations with E21: Edmund Phelps on the COVID-19 Response
Allison Schrager, E21

Edmund Phelps, the winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize in Economics, is Director of the Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia University. He did and continues to do groundbreaking work on unemployment, growth, and innovation. His most recent work addresses how to restore dynamism to the economy. Read more here.

A Problem You Can Just Throw Money At
Kevin Williamson, National Review

Next-Gen Nuclear Power
James Meigs, City Journal

MI Responds: NYC’s Budget Crunch
Hendrix, Kober, Gelinas, Malanga, Armlovich & Husock, Manhattan Institute

James Robinson: The narrow corridor to liberty
James Pethokoukis | @JimPethokoukis | "Political Economy"

Why do some nations become free and prosperous while others don't? According to guest James Robinson, freedom and prosperity arise when a state is strong enough to secure liberty and provide public services and a society is strong enough to prevent the state from becoming despotic.

The American dream in 2020: How to strengthen it
Aparna Mathur, Abby McCloskey, and Erin Melly | American Enterprise Institute

THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR REGIME IS STILL OPEN FOR BUSINESS

4/3/2020

Washington Targets Tehran’s Petrochemical Trade by Sanctioning Military Pension Fund

More Evidence Suggests Iran’s Nuclear Shopping Sprees Persist

GETTING INDO-PAC RIGHT ON CHINA

U.S., IRAN:
Treasury Sanctions Quds Force Fronts in Iraq
By Mark Dubowitz & Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD: “The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday sanctioned 20 people and companies in Iraq and Iran with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF), Tehran’s elite foreign operations and terror unit."

ADDRESSING THE GLOBAL DOLLAR SHORTAGE & THE LIMITS OF SANCTIONS

3/23/2020

Addressing the Global Dollar Shortage: More Swap Lines? A New Fed Repo Facility for Central Banks? More IMF Lending?

Sanctions Won't Bust Russia-Venezuela Relationship
By Sarah White, RealClearWorld: "When U.S. President Donald Trump gave the State of the Union address in early February, Juan Guaidó, who declared himself Venezuela’s acting president last year, was in the audience as an honored guest. At the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was paying a visit to Caracas. The coinciding trips were a striking reminder that there are competing visions of Venezuela’s future."

THE UAE, TURKEY PROVIDE IRANIAN SANCTIONS EVASION & COVID PANDEMIC ENDS GLOBALIZATION

3/22/2020

U.S. Court Exposes Turkey’s Role in Iran’s and Venezuela’s Sanctions Evasion Schemes – Again

UAE Continues to Serve as Hub for Iranian Sanctions Evasion
Saeed Ghasseminejad | Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor

Pacific Century: The Pandemic, China, And The End Of Globalization
interview with Michael R. Auslin, John Yoo via The Pacific Century

A Beat Down On China, With Michael Auslin
interview with Michael R. Auslin via Power Line
Hoover Institution fellow Michael Auslin discusses his RealClearPoltitcs article “Beijing Fears COVID-19Is Turning Point for China, Globalization,” and he also answers some fundamental questions about whether China can become more transparent and truly liberalize in any meaningful way.

Holding The Line: Maintaining Fiscal And Monetary Policy Boundaries In The Midst Of A Crisis
quoting Kevin Warsh via Cato Institute
Not long ago, the CMFA staff and I were preparing to officially launch The Menace of Fiscal QE, my book aimed at countering efforts to have the Fed undertake or otherwise fund off-budget government spending programs.

Visualizing The 700-Year Fall Of Interest Rates
cited Paul Schmelzing via Visual Capitalist
How far can interest rates fall? Currently, many sovereign rates sit in negative territory, and there is an unprecedented $10 trillion in negative-yielding debt. This new interest rate climate has many observers wondering where the bottom truly lies.

KEYNES + WUHAN = INTERVENTION

3/20/2020

Flattening the Curve of a Recession
Milton Ezrati, City Journal

What Federal Bailouts Should and Shouldn’t Do
Nicole Gelinas, Manhattan Institut

HOW SOAKING THE RICH WORKS

The Market Lover’s Argument for Fiscal Policy
Allison Schrager, E21

Economists like to say everyone is a Keynesian in a foxhole. But this will be no normal recession. It illustrates the purpose of fiscal policy. Actually, the evidence is mixed that fiscal policy is always effective at boosting demand. But that does not mean there is no role for fiscal expansion. The scope of fiscal policy is not demand management; it is about risk management, which means preserving the arsenal of fiscal and monetary expansion for when it is needed and can be the most powerful. Read more here....

AMITY SHLAES
A Proven Economic Path to Recovery
America’s past crises show that a free-market policy is the best way forward.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/12/how_to_get_the_stock_market_back.html

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/2020/03/17/somewhere_up_there_john_v_lindsay_smiles_admiringly_at_an_inept_fed_486785.htm

NO GROWTH, NO YIELDS: US POLITICAL ECONOMY ISN'T ON SOLID FOUNDATION & HOW TEAM TRUMP MANAGES CHINA'S TECH RISE

3/15/2020

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/2020/03/17/somewhere_up_there_john_v_lindsay_smiles_admiringly_at_an_inept_fed_486785.html

GLOBAL TARP

Yielding Nothing
Allison Schrager, City Journal

The best short-term and long-term stimulus package for COVID-19
Aparna Mathur and Erin Melly | AEIdeas

Coronavirus: What the global economy is up against
Desmond Lachman | Washington Examiner
Hopefully, chastened by the recent stock market meltdown, President Trump might drop his earlier antagonism toward international cooperation and his my-way-or-the-highway approach to domestic economic policy setting. If not, prepare for more economic pain.

Josh Rogin writes: This is not a “red scare” or an argument for complete decoupling of the U.S. economy from China. This is a call for more transparency from Chinese companies and more vigilance by U.S. institutions gambling with Americans’ financial futures. China wants to see its most controversial firms embedded in U.S. indexes and pension funds because it legitimizes these companies, undermines U.S. sanctions and advances Beijing’s strategy to increase China’s leverage and influence over the United States. We can’t afford to let that happen. – Washington Post

Kristine Lee and Ashley Feng write: Beijing’s blustering is more pernicious than false advertising. After its early mismanagement of the outbreak, China is brazenly leveraging what is now a global crisis to advance its narrow aims. […]The coronavirus should be an unequivocal wakeup call for the United States and its allies to collectively oppose China’s efforts to hollow out the existing rules-based order and advance alternatives that are ultimately detrimental to the free flow of information and global public health. – The Hill

Liselotte Odgaard writes: China pursues its global interests by creating situations in which other states feel that conceding to Beijing’s interests is prudent, given China’s financial and diplomatic clout. […]China addresses key regional concerns, thereby promoting a benevolent self-image. China nurtures recipient country–identified needs previously neglected by Western donors, but such developmental nurturing ultimately serves Chinese economic, environmental, and security interests. – Hudson Institute

IRAN & SOUTH AFRICA'S POLITICAL ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING & WHAT SHOULD US LEADERSHIP LEARN FROM COLOMBIA'S FARC

3/11/2020

Crisis Of The Iranian Order
Tony Badran — Hoover Institution
The “transnational”: this is how Qassem Soleimani, the former head of Iran’s Qods Force, who was killed in a January U.S. missile strike in Baghdad, is described in Hezbollah-run schools in Lebanon. Soleimani, who commanded the militias prosecuting Iran’s wars in the region and who managed the Islamic Republic’s realm from Iraq to Lebanon, met his end as the Iranian order in those two countries was under severe stress, adding to the Iranian regime’s domestic troubles as it reels under the weight of U.S. sanctions. Read More

Stop Iran funding? Hezbollah’s Financial Activities Should be Israel’s Top Priority

https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/01/colombias-imperfect-peace-could-provide-roadmap-afghanista

As Erdogan’s reliance on Russia grows, NATO hopes to win back wayward Turkey
Aykan Erdemir and Philip Kowalski — Al Arabiya
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Moscow for six hours on Thursday to negotiate a ceasefire deal that intended to end clashes in northwest Syria’s Idlib province, which resulted in the deaths of 60 Turkish soldiers since the start of February. Although the two leaders have significant differences over the future of Idlib and Syria, Erdogan’s dependence on Russia, both politically and economically, limited his ability to pivot away from the Kremlin and realign with Turkey’s traditional allies in NATO. Read More

CHINA: ZERO GROWTH & THE LINK B/T PLACE, POLICY AND ECONOMIC DYNAMISM

2/28/2020

Place, policy, and dynamism
More than ever, America needs greater dynamism at the local level. Dynamism encompasses the pace of new business formation, the flexibility of labor markets, and geographic mobility, along with how well a region can adapt to technological change and disruption. When dynamism is widespread, the benefits of entrepreneurship, growing wages, and new types of work are available to people up and down the income spectrum. When dynamism falters in cities and regions, stagnation becomes a defining characteristic.

The reports in this series are a first step looking at how to recover dynamism where it has been lost and how to preserve the fundamentals of dynamic cities going forward. The authors bring a diverse range of interests and expertise together to begin to answer key questions about the future well-being of American cities.
READ MORE

VENEZUELAN REGIME IMPOSES CRYPTOCURRENCY

2/28/2020

GOLDMAN FAILS & CREDIT MARKETS FUEL RECESSIONS NOT MONETARY TIGHTENING

2/5/2020

ASIA TIMES

Why Deficits Still Matter – Brian Riedl, Manhattan Institute

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/01/28/goldman_sachs_should_ditch_the_virtue_signaling_and_re-emphasize_long-term_greedy_104055.html

New Paper: Fiscal Theory Of Monetary Policy
by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
By "fiscal theory of monetary policy" I mean a model with standard DSGE ingredients, including inertemporal optimization and market clearing, monetary policy described by interest rate targets, price or other frictions, but closed by fiscal theory, "active" fiscal policy rather than "active" monetary policy

The ‘Stakeholder Economy’ Comes for Pensions
Allison Schrager, E21

The investment objective of a public pension fund manager is a simple one: provide the promised pension benefits while exposing the fund (and the taxpayer who is the backstop) to as little risk as possible. But in a world of stakeholder capitalism this has all gotten a little more complicated. An Australian man recently sued his pension fund for investing in non-green companies. Last week, Bruce Katz of Drexel and Colin Higgins of the Governance Project wrote that public pension funds should invest locally to boost local economies. They argue that there is a lack of transparency that leads funds to invest in private assets in America’s coastal cities even though there is arguably an ever-greater responsibility to invest in worthy local projects. Read more here....

THE ORIGINS OF SECULAR STAGNATION & LOW INTEREST RATES

1/24/2020

Men without work
Aparna Mathur and Nicholas Eberstadt | AEI video

5000 Years Of Interest Rates, Part II
quoting Paul Schmelzing via Daily Reckoning
Yesterday we hauled out evidence that interest rates have gone persistently down 500 years running.

Charles Read, The Economist, in re: Secular stagnation — which goes back at least to the Fourteenth Century: rates have been falling since then, the birth of capitalism. The “real” rate of return is adjusted for inflation. Ergo, real interest rates have been declining for seven hundred years. . . . Central bankers use interest rates as their main policy tool: cut to stimulate; and when the economy is growing too fast, it raises interest rates. Interest rates at zero: the tool becomes unusable. BofE went to 0.5% . . . need to find other mans of control.

US LED IRANIAN SANCTIONS REGIME IS STRANGLING THE MULLAH'S

1/24/2020

Asking the Right Questions about the Past and Future of World Order by Francis J. Gavin

Ending Iran’s Fictions

Iranian Expert Abbas Milani Believes Iranian Sanctions Are Working
interview with Abbas Milani via Fox Business
Hoover Institution fellow Abbas Milani notes that President Trump's sanctions are working and even more need to be enacted.

Abbas Milani: The Economy Is The Iran Regime's 'Most Serious Problem'
interview with Abbas Milani via Fox Business
Hoover Institution fellow Abbas Milani discusses tensions between the US and Iran as well as civil unrest in Iran.

Richard Goldberg is a senior advisor at FDD. From 2019-2020, Richard served as the Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction for the White House National Security Council. He previously served as chief of staff for Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner and deputy chief of staff and senior foreign policy adviser to former U.S. Senator Mark Kirk of Illinois in both the U.S. House and Senate.

Related articles
●   https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-sanctions/u-s-expects-u-n-sanctions-on-iran-to-snap-back-into-place-treasury-secretary-idUSKBN1ZE1O2
●   https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-factbox/how-the-iran-nuclear-deal-dispute-mechanism-works-idUSKBN1ZD1I1
●   https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-threatens-tariffs-on-europeans-unless-nuke-deal-scrapped/
●   https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/iran-tries-to-woo-europeans-by-threatening-to-kill-them
●   https://www.wsj.com/articles/nuclear-deal-collapse-would-put-european-troops-at-risk-tehran-warns-11579102811

Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf. A former journalist with the Financial Times, Mr. Henderson has also worked as a consultant advising corporations and governments on the Persian Gulf.

Related articles
●   https://thehill.com/opinion/international/478122-death-of-a-sultan-oman-matters-so-why-such-a-slow-us-response
●   https://www.timesofisrael.com/qatar-seeks-to-mediate-amid-tensions-after-us-strike-in-iraq/
●   https://www.timesofisrael.com/why-is-bahrains-israel-friendly-foreign-minister-being-given-the-boot/
●   https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Late-Sultan-of-Oman-vowed-to-keep-the-Strait-of-Hormuz-open-what-now-613816
●   https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/474698-turkey-doubles-regions-troubles-first-in-syria-and-now-in-libya

THE WOKERATI EMBRACE LATE CAPITALISM: WHY THEY'RE WRONG

1/13/2020

Market capitalism really is 'the greatest thing that ever happened to mankind'
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

‘Late capitalism’? Not even close

Michael R. Strain | Bloomberg Opinion

The phrase “late capitalism” suggests that capitalism is spent and exhausted. It isn’t. Far from being in the twilight of the market economy, the storm clouds from the recession have finally passed.

U.S. Sanctions North Korean Companies for Profiting From Overseas Slave Labor

GARRY SCHILLING ON FORECASTING

1/3/2020

Why It’s Hard to Forecast the Economy
A. Gary Shilling, Bloomber

3 charts showing good news about American wage growth
James Pethokoukis writes that Democratic presidential candidates remain dismissive of the American economy and its record-long expansion. They fail to recognize that wages are rising, and they're rising fastest for those at the bottom.
READ MORE

INDIA'S ECONOMY GOING DOWN FAST & AFRICAN ECONOMIES POISED TO SURGE IN 2020

12/27/2019

FIXING INDIA

ASIA TIMES

Agree With Raghuram Rajan, Economy Suffering Because All Powers Centralised In PMO: Shiv Sena
quoting Raghuram Rajan via India Today
In his essay for the India Today Magazine, Raghuram Rajan had said India is currently in the midst of a "growth recession" with signs of extreme centralisation of power in the PMO.

Raghuram Rajan: 2020 And Africa's Decade For Trade
interview with Raghuram Rajan via BBC
Hoover Institution fellow Raghuram Rajan notes that trading under the new African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) will commence in July 2020 promising to open borders, cut tariffs, and boost intra-African trade by more than 50%.

GEO-ECONOMICS: WARCRAFT AS STATECRAFT

12/23/2019

Economic Instruments And National Security Goals
by John B. Taylor via Strategika
In this essay I address the question of whether economic instruments such as tariffs, embargoes, quotas, capital controls, financial sanctions, or asset freezes can achieve national security goals—economic, political, or military—and thereby help avoid international conflict, or even preclude war. The connection between economics and national security is an ancient issue about which people have debated for a long time.
Strategika Issue 61: Tariffs And Embargoes
via Hoover Daily Report
Strategika Issue 61 is now available online. Strategika is an online journal that analyzes ongoing issues of national security in light of conflicts of the past—the efforts of the Military History Working Group of historians, analysts, and military personnel focus.

Myths About Capitalism
by Milton Friedman via PolicyEd
One of the great myths of free

PAUL VOLCKER, WHO SAVED WESTERN CIVILIZATION UNDER REAGAN, DIES AT 92

12/21/2019

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/12/16/paul_volcker_as_inflation_slayer_is_hagiography_not_biography.html
.
John Tamny, RealClearMarkets, explains, “Investment, not consumption, is the driver of economic growth. And investment is all about producers’ devising new ways to produce abundant goods and services at prices that continue to fall.” . . , And what of “money supply”? The latter is a consequence of economic activity, not Fed ease. Readers witnessed this up close in recent years amid the Fed’s feckless QE. Copious amounts of dollars were “created,” but with growth slight Stateside, those dollars rapidly migrated out of the U.S.

Paul Volcker’s Principles Must Endure
Peter Ireland, E21
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker passed away this week at age 92. Volcker will always be remembered as the man who acted, singlehandedly, to end America’s “Great Inflation” of the 1970s. When he arrived at the Federal Reserve Board in August 1979, inflation as measured by annual changes in the consumer price index was running at 12%. When he left in August 1987, inflation was down to just 4%. Read more here.... (Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images)

RIP Paul Volcker
Norman J. Ornstein | AEIdeas
The combination of intellect, integrity, drive, and commitment — along with decency, honor, and good humor — is rare and to be treasured and celebrated.

Paul Volcker Editorial of The New York Sun | December 9, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/paul-volcker/90935/
The death of Paul Volcker is a sad moment here at the Sun. The chairman of the Federal Reserve who, in the 1980s, conquered inflation slipped away Sunday after a long illness. Of all the public officials we covered over the decades, it is hard to think of one whom we admired more than Volcker and who will be more widely missed in America and abroad.
Continue Rea

Author

An authority on Civil-Military Relations; Southwest Asian Political Economy, and Pentagon Acquisition Reform .

CASE FOR MONETARY REGIME CHANGE
File Size:	109 kb
File Type:	pdf

THE FED & THE PROFESSOR STANDARD
File Size:	100 kb
File Type:	pdf

ENOUGH WITH RENTIER ECONOMICS
File Size:	119 kb
File Type:	pdf

STRUCTURAL HISTORY OF ECONOMICS
File Size:	681 kb
File Type:	pdf

FOUNDATIONS OF ECONOMICS

FOUNDATION for ECONOMIC EDUCATION

SERGEY ALEKSASHENKO FORMER RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANKER

THE GRUMPY ECONOMIST

ROBERT SAMUELSON WASHINGTON POST

JOHN B. TAYLOR ECONOMICS ONE BLOG

MILTON FRIEDMAN COLLECTED WORKS HOOVER

ALLAN MELTZER HOOVER INSTITUTION

KEVIN WARSH HOOVER INSTITUTION

KEYNES VS. HAYEK RAP

KEYNES VS. HAYEK RAP ROUND 2

Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking wsj pdf
File Size:	211 kb
File Type:	pdf

What Uber Can Teach the Fed pdf
File Size:	150 kb
File Type:	pdf

Tweets by WilliamHolland

Archives

August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
November 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
March 2016
February 2016
November 2015

Categories