MONETARISM & NOMINAL GDP

E.U. CAP ON RUSSIAN OIL IS FAILING

2/9/2023

China's Rising Holdings of U.S. Agency Bonds
by Brad W. Setser

ASSESSING IRAN'S BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM

The Underside of the Coin: Illicit Finance Risks in Virtual Assets

Turkish Company Launders Funds for Hamas, Defies U.S. Sanctions
by Abdullah Bozkurt
Nordic Monitor
February 22, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64190/turkish-company-launders-funds-for-hamas-defies

China’s Growing Naval Influence in the Middle East
Blake Herzinger and Ben Lefkowitz | Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Ronald Reagan’s Singular Grand Strategy
Dan Blumenthal | National Review

The Fed Keeps Making the Same Mistakes
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas

U.S. Demands More Sanctions Enforcement From Turkey

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HAYEK'S WAR OF ALL AGAINST ALL CONTINUES

1/26/2023

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A Very Big 15-Year Anniversary
by John B. Taylor via Economics One

Stanford University's John B. Taylor On FED Decision

Is Monetarism Making a Comeback?
Desmond Lachman | Hill

Fiscal Fault Lines
A risk-based case for taking inflation and the national debt more seriously

AMAZON

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PUTIN'S WAGER GROUP TARGETED AS CRIMINAL; IRAN'S CURRENCY FAILS....AGAIN

1/26/2023

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"To Fight the Rial’s Plunge, Tehran Resorts to Tactics that Failed Before," Saeed Ghasseminejad, FDD Policy Brief

"Understanding the US Designation of the Wagner Group as a Transnational Criminal Organisation," Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Emelie Chace-Donahue, and Colin P. Clarke, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism

Fawzi al-Zubaidi writes: The key structural obstacles for security reform facing the government of Sudani include the lack of political consensus and conflicts, the ambiguity of the political future of the Sudani government, rampant corruption, the sagging administrative system in Iraq, and the absence of professional co-ordination among the national security institutions. Nevertheless, although the obstacles are many and the proposed reforms expansive and complex, whether Iraq can implement these reforms will determine whether Iraq’s national security sinks or swims amidst increasingly dire regional and global contexts. – Washington Institute

Seth J. Frantzman writes: As the crisis continues, Hezbollah continues to entrench. It continues to build watchtowers and fortifications in southern Lebanon and to threaten Israel, which is carrying out large-scale military drills with US Central Command this week. Hezbollah knows that it must tread carefully – and benefits from the vacuum of power at the heart of Beirut. – Jerusalem Post

Seth Cropsey writes: It is a matter of supreme importance that we deploy hypersonic weapons at scale — and in a variety of platforms — as rapidly as possible. Congress should encourage the Pentagon to accept testing risks and push rapid operational deployments. The ARRW, in particular, should be fully funded for procurement, not just RDT&E. More generally, Congress should ensure that hypersonics are not a casualty of misguided fiscal prudence or progressive domestic priorities. – The Hill

Mackenzie Eaglen writes: Returning to 2022 spending levels for 2024 is much more than a $75 billion cut for the US military. The House GOP is proposing a defense cut well north of $100 billion once more accurate inflation data is available. The result of this short-sighted and unserious proposal would be near immediate and create a “force that is measurably smaller and less capable than the one we have today.” – 19fortyfive

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TURKEY HELPS IRAN EVADE U.S. LED SANCTIONS

12/16/2022

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Pentagon Senior Leaders Unfocused on Combat Readiness
By Forrest L. Marion, RealClearDefense: “During the so-called "Phoney War" from the fall of 1939 to the spring of 1940, the former Chief of the Imperial General Staff, Lord Gort – reassigned to command the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) in France against the German attack that everyone knew was to come – inexplicably remained attentive to nonessential concerns.”

The redistribution of wealth changes society in deep ways that social planners tend to overlook.
READ MORE ›

How to Win Friends and Choke China’s Chip Supply, by Emily Kilcrease

Egyptian banks announce measure to encourage savings

SANCTIONS & ILLICIT FINANCE; FOUNDATION FOR THE DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES

US slaps sanctions on Islamic State network in Turkey

US sanctions Turkish businessman over IRGC oil sales
The United States designated what it described as an international oil smuggling and money laundering network led by Turkish businessman Sitki Ayan.

Experts Question Chinese Claim Of Quantum Cryptography Breakthrough. Chinese researchers claimed in late December to have made a breakthrough in quantum computing that has allowed them to break low-level RSA encryption – the standard encryption method for secure data transmission. The researchers say the method can overcome advanced 2048-bit RSA encryption with a 372-qubit quantum computer, though they were only limited to cracking 48-bit RSA with a 10-qubit device in testing. Cybersecurity experts have raised concern that essentially the entire internet would be vulnerable to decryption technology with this alleged potential. However, they add that they are skeptical of the Chinese researchers’ success since their study is not meaningfully peer-reviewed and is based on a controversial technique that analysts say does not work when applied to larger encryption. The Record Tech Monitor

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HOW TO RESTORE GLOBAL STABILITY

8/5/2022

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What Does the Weaponization of Global Finance Mean for U.S. Dollar Dominance?,
by Elliot Hentov, Ramu Thiagarajan, and Aaron Hurd

Tehran Beating the War Drum?

Why the World Economic Forum's Plutocracy Should Be Dissolved

Focus On Inflation To Make Central Banks’ Job Easier, Rajan Says

Raghuram Rajan: Central Banks Can Do More By Trying To Do Less

40 Years Of Lessons Learned: Jackson Hole 1982 & 2022
by John B. Taylor via Economics OneThe stock market reaction to the Kansas City Fed meeting in Jackson Hole today was not so pleasant. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 1,000 points or by over 3 %. The S&P 500 was down 3.4 percent.

Fed’s conduct of monetary policy rewards those who trade cash back-and-forth to game interest rates instead of funding productive enterprise. Undermines growth in terms of output and services for the real economy. https://t.co/eHDCcFZq7u
— Judy Shelton (@judyshel) August 2, 2022

IDF Targeted Operation Eliminates Palestinian Islamic Jihad Commander

Restoring Global Order and Stability in World Markets
by David C. Mulford

In the winter of 1984–85 the United States faced the rising threat of global economic and financial instability in the world monetary system, which could have led to a global market meltdown or severe world recession
POLICY INSIGHTS

Capitalism Vs. Socialism

Raghuram Rajan On Balance Of Power

Turkey’s inflation hits almost 80% as Erdogan insists on low-rate policy
Despite a relative slowdown in July, Turkey’s consumer inflation appears on course to overshoot the central bank’s newly revised year-end forecast of 60.4%.

New Winners, New Losers: Toward a New Energy Security,

Foreword — Countering the Financing of Terrorism: Law and Polic

A Constitutionalist Shifthttps://t.co/igB2GOVKy3
— American Institute for Economic Research (@aier) September 17, 2022

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ASSAD: TERROR NARCO TRAFFICKING

5/3/2022

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State Department Report Glosses Over Assad’s Narco-Trafficking Wealth

Team Biden must stop Russia’s Iran deal

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WHY THE CENTRAL BANK MUST END Q.E. & TURKEY REMAINS THE CENTER FOR ILLICIT FINANCE FOR ISLAM

8/8/2021

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Heed the Advice of Edmund Burke
New Year's Resolution: Do Not Allow Evil to Prosper

Turkish inflation hits highest level under Erdogan's rule

Erdogan’s Wealth Amnesty Offers Illicit-Finance Loophole for the Eighth Time
Aykan Erdemir | Turkey Program Senior Director

Paraguayan Raids Further Expose U.S. Intermediaries’ Role in TBA Money Laundering Schemes

Solving Syria’s Crisis Starts with Sanctioning Iranian Oil
Rather than rehabilitating the Assad regime through willful negligence in its sanctions policy, the administration should escalate economic pressure on the Assad regime’s Iranian enablers to regain a measure of leverage at the negotiating table.

There Was Once a Dream That Was the Turkish Republic by Selim Koru

Landmark Iran Sanctions Ruling Against Turkish Public Lender Builds U.S. Deterrence

The Dangers of Endless Quantitative Easing
By Raghuram G. Rajan via Project Syndicate
Raghuram Rajan argues that central banks’ phasing out quantitative easing (QE) would be the first step toward normalizing monetary policy and ultimately alleviating pressure on asset managers to produce impossible returns in a low-yield investment environment. He maintains that QE shortens the maturity of government debt and thus causes an increase in government and central bank exposure to rising interest rates.

Prospects of a New Iran Deal
Strategika no. 74
In a new issue of Strategika, scholars provide the historical background of the current impasse in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. They also discuss the dimming prospects of Tehran abandoning its nuclear program via diplomacy and whether the United States has the credibility to broker a resolution acceptable to all parties—one that can realistically lead to peace and stability in the Middle East.

Democrats are trying to prop up the economy with cash infusions, but James Pethokoukis warns that the disappointing growth in gross domestic product suggests that these efforts threaten to increase inflation rather than generate real growth and more take-home pay for workers. To achieve more substantial growth, Pethokoukis suggests that Congress and the president should devote more attention to creating a stable macroeconomic environment for the private sector.

Financial Watchdog Cracks Down on Turkish Public Lender’s German Subsidiary

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TERROR FINANCING & INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS: TIME FOR AN AUDIT

2/21/2021

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Biden Lifts Sanctions on Firms Linked to Key Assad Backer

To Diminish Terror Finance, Audit International Organizations by Clifford Smith
The Washington Examiner
February 18, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/62033/to-diminish-terror-finance-audit-global-charities

DOJ Charges Reveal North Korean Cybercrime and Money Laundering Schemes

Shifting Cocaine Routes Turn U.S. Ally Paraguay Into Main Transit Country

Flip the gray zone script: How the US can customize its approach to China

The Next 5 Years Of Defense Innovation With Eric Schmidt, Michael Brown, And Dr. Amy Zegart
mentioning Amy Zegart via Defense Innovation Unit
Please join the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) for a virtual fireside chat to discuss the next five years of defense innovation from our speakers’ perspectives as commercial, defense, and academic leaders at the intersection of technology and national security. Historically, partnerships between these sectors have been essential to game-changing advancements in science and technology.

The tectonics of Middle Eastern geopolitics: Seismic signs in the Caucasus
Russia, Turkey, and Iran not only compete for influence (as states and through non-state actors) in core countries of the Middle East and North Africa like Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and beyond in the Gulf. They also happen to be the three former imperial powers in the Caucasus – the crucial link between the Black and Caspian Seas on the seam of Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
Read article

Winter 2020/2021 Issue

Turkish-Iranian rivalry heats up over Mosul
Turkey’s increasing focus on Iraq’s Sinjar region is linked to a broader rivalry with Iran for influence over Mosul.

Israel expanding decades-old secret nuclear site in Negev Desert: report
The Dimona facility appears to be undergoing its largest construction in decades, but it's not clear why.

Kill the Drug War: Death, Decisions, and the Limits of Military Power by Collin Fox

Al-Qaeda Is Being Hollowed to Its Core by Barak Mendelsohn and Colin Clarke

U.S. designates al Qaeda financial facilitator based in Turkey

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RUSSIA'S DIRTY MONEY GAME: EVADE THE U.S. SANCTIONS REGIME; RUSSIA & CHINA ABET NARCO-TERROR

2/6/2021

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Biden Should Heed Navalny’s Call to Crack Down on Russia’s Dirty Money

Victor Davis Hanson: Episode 53: The Russia Card
with Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
Hoover Institution fellow Victor Davis Hanson discusses the new issue of Strategika and its theme of US-Russian relations, progressive illiberalism, and the first days of the Biden administration.

Navalny's Wife Could Be The 'De Facto Leader' Of His Movement, Michael Mcfaul Predicts
interview with Michael McFaul via MSNBC
Hoover Institution fellow Michael McFaul predicts Alexei Navalny's wife could be the "de facto leader" leader of Navalny's movement in Russia while he is in jail.

Victor Davis Hanson; Biden Leads The Hard Left Turn
interview with Victor Davis Hanson via The John Batchelor Show
Hoover Institution fellow Victor Davis Hanson discusses Biden's executive orders and his embracing of the far-left agenda.

Nobel Peace Prize Nominee Alexei Navalny Vs Putin's Castle
interview with Paul R. Gregory via The John Batchelor Show
Hoover Institution fellow Paul Gregory discusses the jailing of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

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JOHN B. TAYLOR ON THE ECONOMICS OF FOREIGN POLICY

10/19/2020

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Economic Policy and Foreign Policy Go Together
by John Taylor

Scenarios for US interest rates and emerging market default: The good, the bad, and the ugly
Steven B. Kamin | AEIdeas
A wave of emerging market defaults is not preordained, but there is plenty of cause to worry about prospects for emerging markets. Even before the coronavirus pandemic, many of them were taking on debt and building up significant vulnerabilities.

America: The World’s Scariest Emerging Market Economy
Desmond Lachman, The Hill

Strategic Survey 2020: The Annual Assessment of Geopolitics

IRAN'S NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES Read the latest edition here.

Middle East Deals Should Include Nuclear Energy Collaboration

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ST. LOUIS FED TACKLES DEFICITS & THE CONDITIONS THAT RESOLVE THEM; E-BOOK ON HOW TO GOVERN FOR POST COVID POLITICAL ECONOMY

10/15/2020

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Reforming New York City’s Public Retirement System
John Hunt, Manhattan Institute

Wealth and Risk
Allison Schrager, City Journal

Wealth disparities among racial groups in America are caused by multiple factors, including differences in education and income and a legacy of discrimination. But distinctions in risk-taking and tolerance are also important, persistent—and often overlooked. The Federal Reserve Board recently released its triannual Survey of Consumer Finances, the most comprehensive snapshot of American household balance sheets. Each report offers a sober reminder of the wealth differences between black and white households in the United States. Median net worth among white households is $181,000; for black households, it is just $20,700. Read more here....

Deep thinking about budget deficits and debt
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

DEBT TO GDP RATIOS: ST. LOUIS VAULT BLOG

James Pethokoukis contributes a timely reflection of the US's fiscal outlook.

The international economy faces a set of complex economic challenges. Desmond Lachman breaks down the International Monetary Fund's sobering World Economic Outlook and the latest developments

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The deep roots of the STEM gender gap
Brent Orrell and Matthew Leger | RealClearPolicy

Defending against economic statecraft: China, the US and the rest

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HOW IRAN EVADES US LED SANCTIONS REGIME GLOBALLY

10/6/2020

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Claire Jungman and Daniel Roth write: This month should serve as a warning to the U.S. Administration: Iran is clearly capable of continuing to export in large quantities despite tightening sanctions enforcement. In addition to the well-publicized Caracas route, the White House must prioritize the curtailment of secretive (and illegal) ship-to-ship transfers, which some analysts believe are involved in half of all successful Iranian oil export deliveries — if maximum economic pressure efforts are to succeed. – United Against Nuclear Iran

Seth J. Frantzman writes: On Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces released details on sites where Hezbollah produces precision guided missile components in Beirut. Hezbollah rushed to take the media to the sites to show that there was nothing to see. On Friday, the IDF released more details. […] The overall context of the public relations conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, which heated up between July and October in conjunction with developments on the ground, is important because it goes along with the Lebanese political crisis in general. – Jerusalem Post

Yaakov Lappin writes: The precision-guided missile project is a joint Hezbollah-Iranian program, and it includes the conversion of existing rockets into precision projectiles, as well as setting up the means to produce them from scratch within Lebanon. The program fits in well with Hezbollah and Iran’s agenda of using human shields to protect offensive capabilities designed to target Israeli civilians. – Algemeiner

Andrew Greco and Will Christou write: Pro-regime actors may be preparing for an offensive in Greater Idlib Province. Russia and the regime have recently increased their bombardment and infiltration attempts in the Jabal Zawiya and Sahl al-Ghab areas. Russia is diplomatically pressuring Turkey to fulfill its commitments to counterterrorism likely to justify a pro-regime offensive against areas primarily controlled by al Qaeda-aligned factions if Turkey does not conduct operations against these groups. – Institute for the Study of War

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Clearly the use of the fighters to channel them from fighting the war against the Syrian regime that the fighters wanted, to sending them abroad is a new phenomenon. It is mostly based on lure of pay with some religious propaganda of fighting imagined enemies or “jihad” mixed in. This blend of religious-ethnic-economic incentives is interesting, but it is primarily Turkey that operationalized the abuse of Syrians by sending them to far away places and betraying their fight in Syria to get them to fight Kurds, Libyans and Armenians. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Azerbaijan does not fit into these groupings because it has sought an independent foreign policy and has steered clear of Middle East disputes. However, it appears that some countries want to link these battles to the Middle East. In a world where the dominant US role of the 1990s is changing rapidly, the influence of other major players such as Russia, Turkey and Iran is growing, and this means they will try to broker deals regarding this Caucuses conflict which will have major implications for the rest of the Middle East. – Jerusalem Post

Dimitar Bechev writes: It is also worth remembering that Moscow may push back strongly against President Ilham Aliyev if he is deemed to be overreaching. The same goes for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan given Russia’s extensive security and economic leverage over Yerevan. Erdogan may score a political win if the Azeris can seize land, but Moscow – initially caught off-guard by this crisis – still has cards to play. The ball is very much in Putin’s court. – Middle East Institute

The Pentagon has begun to shift the focus on irregular warfare away from the specific counterterrorism missions of the last two decades and toward a broader effort that includes information warfare and gray zone operations, a top special operations official said Friday. – Defense News

For nearly 15 years a little known but highly influential Army group has been in the middle of how the Army learns immediate lessons from combat, adapts to the evolving battlefield and saves soldiers’ lives. It’s called Asymmetric Warfare Group, and the Army is shutting it down next year. – Army Times

Rep. Rob Wittman writes: Last week, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper committed to significant increases in spending for Navy shipbuilding and readiness. This is an important step, but it should be just the beginning. America must remember its role as the world’s preeminent maritime nation, and reinvigorate not just our Navy and Marine Corps but our shipbuilding and maritime industries. Our country’s future depends upon it. – Defense News

Peter Villano writes: Defense organizations don’t need to reinvent the wheel to work with commercially successful tech. Use what’s available today to reduce barriers and risk, reform existing methods, and increase engagement with trustworthy resources to work with more viable commercial tech companies that can move our country forward. – Defense News

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VULNERABLE US EXTERNAL POSITION UNSUSTAINABLE & THE SOUTH AMERICAN CULT OF THE CORRUPT

8/28/2020

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The Substack Superstar System
Allison Schrager, City Journal

Until recently, when a prominent writer like Andrew Sullivan lost his job for voicing controversial opinions, he had two options: write for the other side or fade into obscurity. But when Sullivan was fired from New York Magazine recently, he turned to Substack, a platform that lets authors publish and monetize a newsletter or sell standalone content directly to readers. Sullivan claims that he has more than 75,000 subscribers and is making more money than he did at New York.
Read more here.

Why Didn’t Obamacare’s Mandate Work?
Chris Pope, Manhattan Institute

Why the Trade Balance Is Not a Mystery
Steve Hanke, National Review

Does Inflation Matter Anymore?
Claudia Sahm & Elmira Bayrasli, Project Syndicate

The Weakness of Modern Monetary Theory
Jonathan Hartley, National Affairs

The danger of America ignoring external economic risks
Desmond Lachman | The National Interest
With a wave of debt defaults likely to hit the emerging market economies soon and a sovereign debt crisis brewing in Europe, US economic policymakers should consider shifting their attention to external economic risks. If the past 25 years provide any lessons, these factors can impede the economic performance of the United States.

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BEIJING GOES ROGUE AND BAILS OUT IRAN

7/17/2020

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The End Of China's "Peaceful Rise"
by Larry Diamond via American Interest
Two generations of American scholars held out hope that China would become “a responsible stakeholder.” In 2020, those hopes have been dashed.

Time to Close the Legal Loopholes that Facilitate Russian Illicit Finance
John Hardie — The National Interest
Following reports that a Russian military intelligence unit offered bounties to kill U.S. troops in Afghanistan, both Democrats and Republicans in Congress are weighing retaliatory sanctions. But as Congress looks to get tougher on Russia, it should not ignore what may be the most effective step Washington could take to punish Putin and counter Russia’s malign influence: closing the legal loopholes that facilitate Russian illicit finance. Congress has a prime opportunity to do just that as part of its annual defense spending bill. Read More

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/07/iran-turns-to-china-shift-to-east-strategy-against-united-states/
●https://www.ynetnews.com/article/Skcqk0Hyv
https://www.timesofisrael.com/china-strategic-accord-could-give-iran-400-billion-boost-up-military-ties/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-envoy-says-white-house-would-use-military-against-iranian-nuclear-program/

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DISRUPTIONS, CHAO AND THE MAKING OF FORTUNES; WHAT DRIVES INCOME INEQUALITY IN AMERICA

6/5/2020

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The Collapse of Entitlement Federalism
Chris Pope, City Journal
The coronavirus crisis has become a crisis of federalism, as states face plummeting revenues and soaring entitlement obligations. Despite $340 billion in emergency funding through the CARES Act and a $50 billion hike in federal assistance for Medicaid, states remain deep in the red. The National Governors Association has called for an additional $500 billion in “unrestricted fiscal support” to help meet budgetary shortfalls, and House Democrats have made further assistance for states a centerpiece of their proposed $3 trillion HEROES Act. Read more here....

A bad economic idea is back in fashion
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
When something is unsustainable, it will eventually come to an end. Don't expect unsustainable public debt to be any different.

What’s really driven income inequality in America?
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

With low interest rates, should we really ignore budget deficits?
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas

Currency Devaluations Boost No One
John Tamny, RealClearMarkets

Is a UBI Worth the Cost?
Veronique de Rugy, Reason

STATE SPENDING ON POLICE VS. EDUCATION

https://www.amazon.com/Start-Up-Saboteurs-Incompetence-Thinking-Creation/dp/1642796956

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CHINESE INFLUENCE IN KOREA, IRAN & TURKEY COLLAPSING

6/2/2020

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Iranian military-owned Conglomerate Sets Up Shop in Venezuela

The Old and New Persian Empires
Eliora Katz | Research Analyst

A Chronicle of a Lost Decade Foretold
Yanis Varoufakis drafts a preliminary history of the 2020s, which could end looking nothing – and everything – like the 1930s.

"Why Erdogan Won’t Ask the IMF for Help," Aykan Erdemir and John Lechner, Foreign Policy
"China’s Coercion Threatens ROK-U.S. Alliance," Mathew Ha, FDD Policy Brief
"Wanted: A Strategy for Long-term Peacetime Competition With China," Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic, FDD Policy Brief

Greece said Monday that it is determined to oppose plans by Turkey to expand oil-and-gas exploration in the Mediterranean Sea, in a deepening regional dispute over mineral rights. – Associated Press

Ryan Gingeras writes: Whatever does happen, Turkey’s present commitment to its “blue homeland” policies appears contingent upon two critical factors. Firstly, Turkey’s maritime posturing, as conjured up by Gürdeniz, Yaycı, and others, has captured the imagination of a broad swath of the Turkish political establishment. Calls for a determined defense of the country’s expansive “mavi vatan” echoes the combative, independent spirit of Ankara’s contemporary foreign policy. At present, there is little incentive for Turkey to deviate course. – War on the Rocks

Michael Rubin writes: If Egypt seeks to pressure Ethiopia over the Great Renaissance Dam, the best way for Cairo to move forward would be to take diplomatic or economic action against the dam’s foreign financiers. But Sisi’s current approach will fail: The weapons his government has allegedly provided the Somali government are far more likely to end up in the hands of anti-Egyptian radicals than those who seek to counter Ethiopia. Perhaps, for the sake of regional security, it is time for the Trump administration to stop turning a blind eye to Egypt’s weapons trade. – Washington Examiner

Mohamed Eljarh writes: As Moscow seeks to strengthen its engagement with the eastern Libya bloc and Ankara builds its military footprint and influence in Tripoli, Erdogan and Putin could repeat their attempt to hijack international diplomacy on Libya with an Astana-like process, presumably favoring Turkish and Russian interests over Libyan ones where convenient. If there is no major shift in dynamic, it is these two countries that will dictate the future of Libya. So far, as the United States continues to exhibit lack of interest or serious engagement and Europe remains divided without a clear common policy on Libya, it remains likely that Turkey and Russia will continue to occupy their roles as shapers of Libya, especially if Russia continues to increase its military and political involvement at the same pace. – Washington Institute

Dmitriy Frolovskiy writes: Reliance on the impartial intermediary approach and realpolitik might be effective to an extent as a way of building bridges with autocratic incumbents, but evidence suggests that Russia’s leadership fails to fully grasp the potential for growing popular unrest in the Middle East. Prone to disruptions, the Kremlin’s approach could still deliver geopolitical gains in the years to come, as signs suggest has been the case with Russia’s growing military presence in Libya. But the region’s changing dynamics might not only offset these gains, but also turn Russia’s involvement into a costly endeavor, wounding it both at home and abroad. – Middle East Institute

Who Has the World’s Largest Economy?
Jeffrey Frankel shows that the United States remains far ahead of China in terms of the metric that really counts.

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AUTARKY = SELF DESTRUCTION

5/19/2020

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Wanted: A Strategy for Long-term Peacetime Competition With China

China’s Coercion Threatens ROK-U.S. Alliance
Mathew Ha | Research Analyst

On the road to deflation?
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

The Federal Reserve's everything bubble
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

The economic self harm of autarky: Are we really talking about America making everything it needs in America?
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

AIER

Zingales On The Rule Of Economists
by David R. Henderson via EconLog
In the spirit of Clemenceau, Huntington (1981) claims that in a democracy, the ultimate responsibility for a country’s military strategy belongs to the civilian political leadership. If, instead, the military controls the political decisions, it is a military dictatorship. In the same way, the ultimate responsibility for a country’s economic policy should belong to the political leadership. If economists control it, it is a technocratic dictatorship.

The Federal Reserve’s everything bubble
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

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TRACKING DOWN SUDAN'S HIDDEN INTERNATIONAL CASH, A LOOK AT LIBYA'S TRIBALISM & MILITARY EDUCATION FOR THE LONG WAR OR GREAT COMPETITION WITH CHINA

5/15/2020

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The Classicist: Dark Days Ahead
interview with Victor Davis Hanson via The Classicist
On political polarization, the debt reckoning, and Chinese aggression.

What does Libya’s ‘Syrianization’ scenario mean for key actors?
Turkey may have gotten kudos for tipping the balance in Libya, but Russian countermoves raise the prospect of Turkish collaboration with Russia in the North African country, which is not to the liking of countries that have been giving plaudits to Ankara.
Read More

France: Ratified Law Officially Ends the West Africa CFA Franc. On Wednesday The French Council of Ministers adopted the bill ratifying the end of the CFA franc. The reform will affect the eight member countries of the West African Monetary Union: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. This bill formally transforms the West African currency, which will change its name to eco. The Central Bank of West African States will no longer have to deposit half of its foreign exchange reserves with the Bank of France. African News North Africa Post

South Sudan: Hundreds of Civilians Killed in Tribal Clashes. Violence broke out between the Lou Nuer and Murle tribal groups in the state of Jonglei around the town of Pieri, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross. Three aid workers were killed, hundreds of civilians were injured, and thousands were displaced from their homes. The violence comes after the government failed to appoint a governor for the newly-created state. David Shearer, head of the UN Mission in South Sudan, stated, “We strongly urge the Government and other parties to compromise and agree on these critical positions.” Reuters

Tracking Down Sudan's Secret Cash by Alberto M. Fernandez

Don’t Bailout Tehran’s Precision Guided Munitions Project

MDA: All-Domain C2 Key To Countering Hypersonic Missiles
“We’ll take anybody’s sensors,” MDA’s John Bier said, “as long as it contributes to the missile warning, missile defense and space domain environment.”

Haftar, Tribal Power, and the Battle for Libya by Alison Pargeter

Scoping the Future of Education in National Security and Beyond with Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Frank Kelley, Sae Schatz, Jason Tyszko, and Ryan Evans

Sowing a new global garden A U.S.-led “economic prosperity network” could be a good start

Keep Expectations Modest for Iraq’s New Government by Douglas A. Ollivant

Pulling Troops Out of Africa Could Mean Another Endless War by Herman J. Cohen

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JOHN B TAYLOR'S NEW BOOK FROM HOOVER INSTITUTION

5/7/2020

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Fiscal policy and the major entitlements: An introduction

Hoover Institution Press Publishes Strategies For Monetary Policy, Edited By John H. Cochrane And John B. Taylor
via Hoover Daily Report
The Hoover Institution will publish a new volume, edited by senior fellows John H. Cochrane and John B. Taylor, that reviews the strategies, tools, and communication practices the Federal Reserve system deploys to shape monetary policies for its dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. Strategies for Monetary Policy is drawn from a May 3, 2019, conference at the Hoover Institution featuring economists, financial experts, and Federal Reserve policy makers.

ABOUT THE BOOK

As spending surges and interest rates plummet, is a new age of monetary policy upon us? Desmond Lachman warns against excessive monetary loosening in emerging markets

Long road to recovery
Desmond Lachman | Washington Examiner
Since 1945, the United States has experienced 12 economic recessions. However, it has never experienced a recession quite as deep and as sudden as the coronavirus-induced slowdown it is currently facing. While much is still unknown, one fact remains certain: The road to recovery will be long.

The debt cleanup that awaits us
James C. Capretta | RealClearPolicy
President Trump and the rest of the federal government are right to focus their attention on the immediate economic and public health emergency COVID-19 presents. However, when the crisis recedes, the entire federal budget needs recalibration to head off an intractable cycle of rising interest payments crowding out necessary public investments.

The economic cost and spatial diffusion of the opioid crisis, 2009–18

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IRAN MOVES TO HELP MADURO, WHILE TEAM TRUMP MOVES AGAINST IRAN

5/2/2020

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How Hezbollah Collaborates With Latin American Drug Cartels
Emanuele Ottolenghi — The Dispatch
Last month, Dutch authorities raided a lab in a small village where Colombian cartels turned charcoal-camouflaged cocaine briquettes back into drugs. The charcoal that most Americans burn in their barbecues is not the stuff they would normally associate with organized crime, yet evidence is mounting that in recent years charcoal—a key Latin American and African export—is fast becoming a cover to masquerade cocaine. Read more

U.S. Sanctions on Iran: Is Natural Gas Next?

The Impact of Sanctions Two Years After U.S. Withdrawal From the Nuclear Deal

Iran: U.S. Seizes Millions and Disrupts Oil Tanker to Target Quds Force. U.S. authorities charged two Iranian men and seized $12 million in funds used to support the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Thursday. “The Iranian regime and its supporters continue to prioritize the funding of international terrorist organizations over the health and well-being of the Iranian people,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Alireza Miryousefi, spokesman for Iran’s mission to the United Nations, said the United States should be concerned in helping its own citizens, but instead focuses on bullying Iran. AL-Monitor The Washington Post

Strategic Fail: Partnering with Turkey to Counter Iran Would Misread the Region by Blaise Misztal

China squeezes debt repayments from virus-hit nations
Amid the psychological rubble of the Covid-19 crisis, strands of China’s ‘New Silk Roads’ have been fused into a web of debt. What was a high-risk game of loans is now threatening cash-strapped countries as they struggle to combat the deadly coronavirus outbreak. In short, the Belt and Road Initiative has gone from the jewel in Beijing’s foreign policy crown to what many see as a poison chalice during a catastrophic world event. Read More

Iran Is Airlifting Supplies to Venezuela. The Trump Administration Should Move to Block It.
The Islamic Republic can leverage the Maduro regime's ability to access sanctioned goods as payment for its services.

Hezbollah’s History with Ammonium Nitrate: The Danger to Europe
Toby Dershowitz and Dylan Gresik – FDD Policy Brief

New Explosion in Lebanon at Site That Belongs To Affiliate of Hezbollah
Tony Badran – FDD Policy Brief

Hezbollah Finance in Lebanon
Tony Badran and Emanuele Ottolenghi — FDD Memo
The government of Lebanon seeks an international bailout to save its financial system, which will require an estimated $93 billion rescue. The amount needed is astronomical. But even if a rescue were feasible, other systemic challenges remain. Lebanon’s financial system is rife with illicit finance. It is a conduit for money laundering schemes that fund Hezbollah and its nefarious activities, generating billions of dollars per year for the terrorist group. Read more

Iran’s Turkey-Based Sanctions-Evasion Scheme More Extensive Than Previously Reported
Aykan Erdemir – FDD Policy Brief

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EDMUND PHELPS ON THE COVID RECOVERY

4/13/2020

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Williams Says Fed Thinking ‘Hard’ About Yield-Curve Control
Steve Matthews, Bloomberg

How to Reform Unemployment Insurance for a Reopened Economy
Beth Akers, E21
Over the past several weeks, since Covid-19 outbreaks have largely closed down the US economy, 36 million people have lost their jobs and filed for unemployment insurance benefits. For as many as two-thirds of them, a funny thing happened—they got a raise. During normal circumstances, workers laid off from their jobs can get somewhere between 35 and 55 percent of their lost wages replaced by unemployment insurance benefits. Unemployment insurance programs are administered by states rather than the federal government, so the exact benefit depends on where the worker lives and the specific policies adopted in their state.
Read more here....

BRIAN RIEDEL: THE ECONOMICS OF RECOVERY

Emi Nakamura Interview: on Price Dynamics, Monetary Policy, and This ‘Scary Moment in History’
Douglas Clement, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

E21 FISCAL CAPACITY OF STATES

DEFICITS SOARING

The Many New Indicators of a Job Collapse
Michael Strain, Bloomberg

E21: US DEBT BOMB W/ COVID

America's coronavirus nightmare: Debt, deflation, and mass unemployment
Desmond Lachman | The National Interest

Deepak Lal and Market-Oriented Policies

Congress needs to solve the COVID-19 liability problem

Mexico: Economy Goes Deeper Into Recession. The government released a report on Thursday that showed Mexico’s economic activity has declined 1.6% in the first quarter compared to the final three months of 2019. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been criticized by many for not doing enough to help keep the business sector afloat. This decline was the biggest since 2009 and the fifth consecutive quarter of economic contraction. U.S. News & World Report

Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has been criticized in recent weeks for failing to take the effects of the pandemic seriously. Roger Noriega took to the AEIdeas blog to argue that if Mexico mismanages the COVID-19 crisis, it could do collateral damage to an already weakened US economy. President Trump has restricted nonessential crossings at the US borders with Mexico as part of the coronavirus response. However, an abrupt economic downturn in Mexico could have significant consequences at the border and to the bilateral relationship. Read more here.

The debt cleanup that awaits us
James Capretta explains that when the crisis recedes, the entire federal budget needs recalibration to head off an intractable cycle of rising interest payments crowding out necessary public investments.
READ MORE

Forget about a V-shaped recovery
Desmond Lachman | The Bulwark

The toxic combination of a record-high global debt-to-GDP ratio and the deepest worldwide economic recession in the postwar period do not indicate a quick recovery. As policymakers in the US mull opening up the economy in an attempt to prevent further damage, they must recognize that there is no miracle bounce back coming. Even if the virus disappeared tomorrow, the world economy and global financial markets will still be stalked by structural risks.

Washington Uses Sanctions and Indictments Inconsistently When Combating Malicious Cyber Activity

Conversations with E21: Edmund Phelps on the COVID-19 Response
Allison Schrager, E21

Edmund Phelps, the winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize in Economics, is Director of the Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia University. He did and continues to do groundbreaking work on unemployment, growth, and innovation. His most recent work addresses how to restore dynamism to the economy. Read more here.

A Problem You Can Just Throw Money At
Kevin Williamson, National Review

Next-Gen Nuclear Power
James Meigs, City Journal

MI Responds: NYC’s Budget Crunch
Hendrix, Kober, Gelinas, Malanga, Armlovich & Husock, Manhattan Institute

James Robinson: The narrow corridor to liberty
James Pethokoukis | @JimPethokoukis | "Political Economy"

Why do some nations become free and prosperous while others don't? According to guest James Robinson, freedom and prosperity arise when a state is strong enough to secure liberty and provide public services and a society is strong enough to prevent the state from becoming despotic.

The American dream in 2020: How to strengthen it
Aparna Mathur, Abby McCloskey, and Erin Melly | American Enterprise Institute

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THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR REGIME IS STILL OPEN FOR BUSINESS

4/3/2020

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Washington Targets Tehran’s Petrochemical Trade by Sanctioning Military Pension Fund

More Evidence Suggests Iran’s Nuclear Shopping Sprees Persist

GETTING INDO-PAC RIGHT ON CHINA

U.S., IRAN:
Treasury Sanctions Quds Force Fronts in Iraq
By Mark Dubowitz & Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD: “The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday sanctioned 20 people and companies in Iraq and Iran with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF), Tehran’s elite foreign operations and terror unit."

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ADDRESSING THE GLOBAL DOLLAR SHORTAGE & THE LIMITS OF SANCTIONS

3/23/2020

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Addressing the Global Dollar Shortage: More Swap Lines? A New Fed Repo Facility for Central Banks? More IMF Lending?

Sanctions Won't Bust Russia-Venezuela Relationship
By Sarah White, RealClearWorld: "When U.S. President Donald Trump gave the State of the Union address in early February, Juan Guaidó, who declared himself Venezuela’s acting president last year, was in the audience as an honored guest. At the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was paying a visit to Caracas. The coinciding trips were a striking reminder that there are competing visions of Venezuela’s future."

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THE UAE, TURKEY PROVIDE IRANIAN SANCTIONS EVASION & COVID PANDEMIC ENDS GLOBALIZATION

3/22/2020

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U.S. Court Exposes Turkey’s Role in Iran’s and Venezuela’s Sanctions Evasion Schemes – Again

UAE Continues to Serve as Hub for Iranian Sanctions Evasion
Saeed Ghasseminejad | Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor

Pacific Century: The Pandemic, China, And The End Of Globalization
interview with Michael R. Auslin, John Yoo via The Pacific Century

A Beat Down On China, With Michael Auslin
interview with Michael R. Auslin via Power Line
Hoover Institution fellow Michael Auslin discusses his RealClearPoltitcs article “Beijing Fears COVID-19Is Turning Point for China, Globalization,” and he also answers some fundamental questions about whether China can become more transparent and truly liberalize in any meaningful way.

Holding The Line: Maintaining Fiscal And Monetary Policy Boundaries In The Midst Of A Crisis
quoting Kevin Warsh via Cato Institute
Not long ago, the CMFA staff and I were preparing to officially launch The Menace of Fiscal QE, my book aimed at countering efforts to have the Fed undertake or otherwise fund off-budget government spending programs.

Visualizing The 700-Year Fall Of Interest Rates
cited Paul Schmelzing via Visual Capitalist
How far can interest rates fall? Currently, many sovereign rates sit in negative territory, and there is an unprecedented $10 trillion in negative-yielding debt. This new interest rate climate has many observers wondering where the bottom truly lies.

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KEYNES + WUHAN = INTERVENTION

3/20/2020

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Flattening the Curve of a Recession
Milton Ezrati, City Journal

What Federal Bailouts Should and Shouldn’t Do
Nicole Gelinas, Manhattan Institut

HOW SOAKING THE RICH WORKS

The Market Lover’s Argument for Fiscal Policy
Allison Schrager, E21

Economists like to say everyone is a Keynesian in a foxhole. But this will be no normal recession. It illustrates the purpose of fiscal policy. Actually, the evidence is mixed that fiscal policy is always effective at boosting demand. But that does not mean there is no role for fiscal expansion. The scope of fiscal policy is not demand management; it is about risk management, which means preserving the arsenal of fiscal and monetary expansion for when it is needed and can be the most powerful. Read more here....

AMITY SHLAES
A Proven Economic Path to Recovery
America’s past crises show that a free-market policy is the best way forward.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/12/how_to_get_the_stock_market_back.html

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/2020/03/17/somewhere_up_there_john_v_lindsay_smiles_admiringly_at_an_inept_fed_486785.htm

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<<Previous

MONITARISM, SANCTIONS & TERROR FINANCING

E.U. CAP ON RUSSIAN OIL IS FAILING

HAYEK'S WAR OF ALL AGAINST ALL CONTINUES

PUTIN'S WAGER GROUP TARGETED AS CRIMINAL; IRAN'S CURRENCY FAILS....AGAIN

TURKEY HELPS IRAN EVADE U.S. LED SANCTIONS

HOW TO RESTORE GLOBAL STABILITY

ASSAD: TERROR NARCO TRAFFICKING

WHY THE CENTRAL BANK MUST END Q.E. & TURKEY REMAINS THE CENTER FOR ILLICIT FINANCE FOR ISLAM

TERROR FINANCING & INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS: TIME FOR AN AUDIT

RUSSIA'S DIRTY MONEY GAME: EVADE THE U.S. SANCTIONS REGIME; RUSSIA & CHINA ABET NARCO-TERROR

JOHN B. TAYLOR ON THE ECONOMICS OF FOREIGN POLICY

ST. LOUIS FED TACKLES DEFICITS & THE CONDITIONS THAT RESOLVE THEM; E-BOOK ON HOW TO GOVERN FOR POST COVID POLITICAL ECONOMY

HOW IRAN EVADES US LED SANCTIONS REGIME GLOBALLY

VULNERABLE US EXTERNAL POSITION UNSUSTAINABLE & THE SOUTH AMERICAN CULT OF THE CORRUPT

BEIJING GOES ROGUE AND BAILS OUT IRAN

DISRUPTIONS, CHAO AND THE MAKING OF FORTUNES; WHAT DRIVES INCOME INEQUALITY IN AMERICA

CHINESE INFLUENCE IN KOREA, IRAN & TURKEY COLLAPSING

AUTARKY = SELF DESTRUCTION

TRACKING DOWN SUDAN'S HIDDEN INTERNATIONAL CASH, A LOOK AT LIBYA'S TRIBALISM & MILITARY EDUCATION FOR THE LONG WAR OR GREAT COMPETITION WITH CHINA

JOHN B TAYLOR'S NEW BOOK FROM HOOVER INSTITUTION

IRAN MOVES TO HELP MADURO, WHILE TEAM TRUMP MOVES AGAINST IRAN

EDMUND PHELPS ON THE COVID RECOVERY

THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR REGIME IS STILL OPEN FOR BUSINESS

ADDRESSING THE GLOBAL DOLLAR SHORTAGE & THE LIMITS OF SANCTIONS

THE UAE, TURKEY PROVIDE IRANIAN SANCTIONS EVASION & COVID PANDEMIC ENDS GLOBALIZATION

KEYNES + WUHAN = INTERVENTION

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