Claire Jungman and Daniel Roth write: This month should serve as a warning to the U.S. Administration: Iran is clearly capable of continuing to export in large quantities despite tightening sanctions enforcement. In addition to the well-publicized Caracas route, the White House must prioritize the curtailment of secretive (and illegal) ship-to-ship transfers, which some analysts believe are involved in half of all successful Iranian oil export deliveries — if maximum economic pressure efforts are to succeed. – United Against Nuclear Iran
Seth J. Frantzman writes: On Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces released details on sites where Hezbollah produces precision guided missile components in Beirut. Hezbollah rushed to take the media to the sites to show that there was nothing to see. On Friday, the IDF released more details. […] The overall context of the public relations conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, which heated up between July and October in conjunction with developments on the ground, is important because it goes along with the Lebanese political crisis in general. – Jerusalem Post
Yaakov Lappin writes: The precision-guided missile project is a joint Hezbollah-Iranian program, and it includes the conversion of existing rockets into precision projectiles, as well as setting up the means to produce them from scratch within Lebanon. The program fits in well with Hezbollah and Iran’s agenda of using human shields to protect offensive capabilities designed to target Israeli civilians. – Algemeiner
Yaakov Lappin writes: The precision-guided missile project is a joint Hezbollah-Iranian program, and it includes the conversion of existing rockets into precision projectiles, as well as setting up the means to produce them from scratch within Lebanon. The program fits in well with Hezbollah and Iran’s agenda of using human shields to protect offensive capabilities designed to target Israeli civilians. – Algemeiner
Andrew Greco and Will Christou write: Pro-regime actors may be preparing for an offensive in Greater Idlib Province. Russia and the regime have recently increased their bombardment and infiltration attempts in the Jabal Zawiya and Sahl al-Ghab areas. Russia is diplomatically pressuring Turkey to fulfill its commitments to counterterrorism likely to justify a pro-regime offensive against areas primarily controlled by al Qaeda-aligned factions if Turkey does not conduct operations against these groups. – Institute for the Study of War
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Clearly the use of the fighters to channel them from fighting the war against the Syrian regime that the fighters wanted, to sending them abroad is a new phenomenon. It is mostly based on lure of pay with some religious propaganda of fighting imagined enemies or “jihad” mixed in. This blend of religious-ethnic-economic incentives is interesting, but it is primarily Turkey that operationalized the abuse of Syrians by sending them to far away places and betraying their fight in Syria to get them to fight Kurds, Libyans and Armenians. – Jerusalem Post
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Azerbaijan does not fit into these groupings because it has sought an independent foreign policy and has steered clear of Middle East disputes. However, it appears that some countries want to link these battles to the Middle East. In a world where the dominant US role of the 1990s is changing rapidly, the influence of other major players such as Russia, Turkey and Iran is growing, and this means they will try to broker deals regarding this Caucuses conflict which will have major implications for the rest of the Middle East. – Jerusalem Post
Dimitar Bechev writes: It is also worth remembering that Moscow may push back strongly against President Ilham Aliyev if he is deemed to be overreaching. The same goes for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan given Russia’s extensive security and economic leverage over Yerevan. Erdogan may score a political win if the Azeris can seize land, but Moscow – initially caught off-guard by this crisis – still has cards to play. The ball is very much in Putin’s court. – Middle East Institute
The Pentagon has begun to shift the focus on irregular warfare away from the specific counterterrorism missions of the last two decades and toward a broader effort that includes information warfare and gray zone operations, a top special operations official said Friday. – Defense News
For nearly 15 years a little known but highly influential Army group has been in the middle of how the Army learns immediate lessons from combat, adapts to the evolving battlefield and saves soldiers’ lives. It’s called Asymmetric Warfare Group, and the Army is shutting it down next year. – Army Times
Rep. Rob Wittman writes: Last week, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper committed to significant increases in spending for Navy shipbuilding and readiness. This is an important step, but it should be just the beginning. America must remember its role as the world’s preeminent maritime nation, and reinvigorate not just our Navy and Marine Corps but our shipbuilding and maritime industries. Our country’s future depends upon it. – Defense News
Peter Villano writes: Defense organizations don’t need to reinvent the wheel to work with commercially successful tech. Use what’s available today to reduce barriers and risk, reform existing methods, and increase engagement with trustworthy resources to work with more viable commercial tech companies that can move our country forward. – Defense News
Peter Villano writes: Defense organizations don’t need to reinvent the wheel to work with commercially successful tech. Use what’s available today to reduce barriers and risk, reform existing methods, and increase engagement with trustworthy resources to work with more viable commercial tech companies that can move our country forward. – Defense News
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