NO REFORM! EGYPT'S MILITARY JUNTA FLOATS CURRENCY; ISRAELI BIBI WIN DIMS ECONOMIC REFORMS, SUDAN & LIBYA BEGIN RE-ENGAGEMENT ECONOMICALLY
Egypt reports increased trade with Arab states
Saudi Arabia is Egypt's top trading partner.
Netanyahu back with Israel's furthest-right government ever
About to establish his sixth government, Benjamin Netanyahu must partner exclusively with religious and far-right partners.
New wave of violence in Sudan puts coup generals in spotlight
Renewed fierce clashes in the Blue Nile state have again shown the generals’ inability to ensure security and revealed the weaknesses of the peace agreement in place, causing new rifts.
Libya derails Egypt-Turkey rapprochement
Egypt-Turkey talks to normalize their relations were halted in the wake of Ankara’s recent oil deal with Libya's Tripoli-based government.
Turkey turns up pressure on allies in Syria
Turkey is using the jihadis’ march into Afrin to push its rebel allies in Syria to reorganize as a coherent, disciplined force. But what happens next if the factions fail to do so by the reported year-end deadline?
Erdogan looks to Putin to ease foreign currency woes
An extraordinary uptick in capital flows of unknown origin to Turkey has left many wondering whether Russian money could be involved.
Erdoğan Seeks Putin's Financial Help Ahead of Turkish Elections by Abdullah Bozkurt
September 13, 2022
Money inflows of unknown origin headed for record in Turkey
As Turkey’s current account deficit continues to widen in the coming months, foreign currency inflows of unknown origin might end up covering more than 70% of the gap.
Latest PRO Memo: Gulf states changing labor, visa and residency policies to attract foreign wealth, talent
Governments in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states are vying to attract global wealth and talent as part of post-coronavirus, oil-fueled economic development trajectories.
Jordan’s tourism revenue triples
The increase follows Syrians being able to travel easily to Jordan again.
Understanding Iraq’s Coordination Framework
With no end in sight to Iraq’s political deadlock, Mustafa Saadoun takes a closer look at the Coordination Framework, the largest Shiite bloc in Iraq’s parliament. The Iran-backed Framework has successfully kept populist Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and his allies from securing the two-thirds majority needed to select a new Iraqi president and ultimately form a government. To understand how, check out the parliament’s political makeup before and after the Sadr ordered the mass resignation of his MPs in June.
How Wobbly Are the Finances of the World’s Major Governments?
James C. Capretta | Bulwark
As the world’s most powerful central banks adjust belatedly to the rapid acceleration of price inflation, it is worth comparing their fiscal situations to better anticipate what the coming months might hold for the global economy and for the politics of each of these countries. For many countries, the fiscal resilience trends look bad, says James C. Capretta.
Five Questions for Michael R. Strain on Inflation, Recession, and the Labor Market
James Pethokoukis and Michael R. Strain | @JimPethokoukis @MichaelRStrain | AEIdeas
What's driving inflation in the US economy? Are we teetering on the edge of a recession, and if so what would the recovery look like? Michael R. Strain and James Pethokoukis answer those questions and more and provide their insight into the economic outlook for the United States.
The Federal Reserve Is Creating A Deep Recession To Stop Inflation. That’s A Mistake.
Desmond Lachman | 19fortyfive.com
Shocking inflation numbers all but guarantee that the Federal Reserve will continue with its policy of aggressively raising interest rates and substantially reducing the size of its bloated balance sheet. Desmond Lachman says that this will raise the risk of a hard economic landing before year-end and further turmoil in financial markets.
The Economic Consequences of Jerome Powell
Desmond Lachman | National Review
Jerome Powell risks going down in history as the Federal Reserve’s worst chairman since the 1970s, Desmond Lachman says. He risks doing so by first having kept monetary policy too loose for too long as inflation quickly got out of control. He now risks allowing the same approach to cause him to slam on the monetary-policy brakes too hard to regain control over inflation.
As Turkey’s economic woes worsen, a new currency crisis is approaching
Turkey’s economic problems continue to go from bad to worse. Its foreign trade deficit has reached a monthly average of $8 billion this year. Amid the sharp rise in global energy prices this spring following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country’s average gross energy imports shot up from $3-4 billion per month to $7-8 billion. A reduction in energy imports and the recovery of tourism this summer have not offset this, and the current account deficit continues to widen.
Istanbul's Mayor: Erdoğan's Worst Nightmare by Burak Bekdil
War is Real': Defend Taiwan or Give It the Bomb by Gordon G. Chang
What is China's grand strategy and what should the United States do about it?
Xi Takes a Page From Mao’s Red Playbook
Craig Singleton — The Daily Beast
In the 1985 blockbuster Back to the Future, California teen Marty McFly journeyed back in time to save his present. The film’s universal themes are known around the world, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping appears to have internalized them as he approaches the most fraught moment of his political career. What Xi lacks in a time-traveling DeLorean, however, he more than makes up for with the theory of “continuous revolution,” as first championed by Mao Tse-Tung. Read more
Desmond Lachman breaks down the inflation situation in Turkey and its central bank's strange monetary policy stance. Lachman also provides historical perspective on present economic challenges in South Africa.
Is this China’s Lehman Brothers moment?
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
In the same way that US economic policymakers and financial markets were rocked by the aftermath of Lehman Brothers' 2008 bankruptcy filing, Chinese policymakers face a similar challenge with Evergrande. With property accounting for 28 percent of the Chinese economy, a critical failure in this sector could have disastrous consequences for the Chinese and regional economies.
Treasury yields, inflation, and real interest rates: Analyzing the historical record
Paul H. Kupiec | AEIdeas
Current nominal US Treasury note yields are exceptionally low partly because of massive Federal Reserve quantitative-easing purchases that were absent in historical episodes. Moreover, inflationary pressures are strong and likely to persist if Congress passes the pending infrastructure and budget reconciliation bills.
The Soviet military was a hollow colossus
Elisabeth Braw | Engelsberg Ideas
The forever war isn’t over
Matthew Continetti | The Washington Free Beacon
The Dreadful Consequences of the Biden Disaster in Afghanistan by Guy Millière
Why is Turkey’s President Cutting Interest Rates, Spurring Inflation and Lowering the Value of the Lira?
Aykan Erdemir | Turkey Program Senior Director
The Federal Reserve won’t admit it has an inflation problem
Desmond Lachman | 19fortyfive.com
Turkish inflation lessons for the Federal Reserve
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
Where is the money? Erdogan feels the heat over foreign reserves drain
Turkey’s government goes on the defensive as the main opposition presses for answers on how the central bank ended up with negative reserves. Read More
Foreign debt risks hover over Turkish lira’s recovery
Saddled with chunky foreign debt repayments in 2021, Turkey might face hefty borrowing costs and renewed currency jitters.
To Diminish Terror Finance, Audit International Organizations by Clifford Smith
The Washington Examiner
February 18, 2021
Turkey’s Ziraat Bank Under Scrutiny
Aykan Erdemir and Umut Can Fidan — FDD Memo
Concerns continue to mount about the integrity of the Turkish financial system. News reports surfaced in January alleging that one of Turkey’s largest financial institutions was involved in questionable offshore deals, conflicts of interest, and irregular transactions with the country’s wealth fund. Turkey’s largest lender, Ziraat Bank, and largest mobile phone operator, Turkcell, are at the center of the scandal. Multiple news outlets report that Ziraat extended a $1.6 billion nonperforming loan to an offshore company, likely under the direction of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Read more
Privatisation Is Not A Remedy For The Ills Of The Banking Sector
quoting Raghuram Rajan via The Northlines
Indian banking sector was earlier in private hands. However, during the 1970’s, the Indian government was of the opinion that banks favor the rich and that the poor must also be given access to cheap credit. With this view, several banks were nationalized. With Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s announcement of bank privatisation, all eyes are on public sector banks.
Erdoğan’s Turkey Cannot Modernize Via Constitutional Reform
By Burak Bekdil, February 24, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turks have been seeking to modernize their democratic culture for a century and a half. Recently, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pledged to reform the constitution. Beware of an Erdoğan bearing democratic gifts.
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Jack 'Uncle Horse' Ma Is a Bad Bet by Gordon G. Chang
Turkey’s Frantic Gold Rush Points to a Financial Crisis Ahead
As ordinary citizens seek to preserve their wealth, President Recep Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party is finding new ways to take advantage of the gold rush.