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GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA 
More HAYEK, LESS KEYNES
monetary regimes, exchange rates, capITal - current accounts, crisis 

HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE INDIAN ECONOMY FOR 2018 & WHAT'S DRIVING HIGHER OIL

1/25/2018

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Expect global equity markets to stall as bond yields jump
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Sudden rise in ‘real’ yields portends powerful headwinds
Here's What Raghuram Rajan Expects From Budget 2018
interview with Raghuram Rajan via Economic Times (India)
Hoover Institution fellow Raghuram Rajan hopes the Finance Minister and Minister of Corporate Affairs Arun Jaitley in India, will stick to macro stability as he writes the Budget and not create a fiscal deficit to an extent that India looks unreliable.

"We Had Two Big Headwinds": Raghuram Rajan On Slowdown
interview with Raghuram Rajan via NDTV
Hoover Institution fellow Raghuram Rajan says the Indian economy had two big headwinds last year, in the form of demonetisation and GST. The economy was held back relative to global economy partly because of these headwinds, he adds. In the long term, says Mr Rajan, GST will have very positive effects. He also says the rising oil prices are an emerging issue and it remains to be seen how much that will affect growth.
West Must Share Benefits Of Growth With Emerging World: Raghuram Rajan
featuring Raghuram Rajan via Economic Times (India)
Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan today said the Western world must realize they cannot go a long way without the help of the emerging economies and warned that no one would be able to resolve any problem of a 'fractured world' if things are not set right soon.
Raghuram Rajan: Higher Oil Pricing Is An Emerging Issue
interview with Raghuram Rajan via NDTV
Hoover Institution fellow Raghuram Rajan says that when oil prices came down, because India imports oil, it showed up as an addition to GDP. Now that oil prices are going up it will show up as a subtraction from GDP, and that certainly is an area for concern going forward.
India falls further behind on WEF’s Inclusive Development Index
 SABENA SIDDIQUI

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SPECIFICS ON A BOOMING ECONOMY

1/22/2018

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What Bubble?
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Two charts help explain why this is the least risky global market rally we've ever seen
Global credit markets are mispriced given risky upcoming elections
Desmond Lachman | US News & World Report
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THE U.S. CHINESE TRADE WAR BEGINS & RAGAN COMMENTS ON HOW THE CENTRAL BANK RAISES RATES

1/19/2018

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China’s Great City Rivalries
Zhang Jun, Project Syndicate
China’s breathtaking transformation into a scientific superpower
By Robert J. Samuelson  •   Read more »
Hope Central Banks Would Raise Rates Gradually: Raghuram Rajan
interview with Raghuram Rajan via Money Control
Hoover Institution fellow Raghuram Rajan says he believes that the US tax plan will boost the economy, and he notes that the central banks will have to raise rates gradually.
Alan Tonelson, independent economic policy analyst who blogs at RealityChek and tweets at @AlanTonelson, in re:

SHANGHAI—The last time Washington mobilized for a trade war, Ronald Reagan was president and Japan the adversary.
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Today, the White House is readying the same big guns—a mix of tariffs and quotas—aimed mainly at Chinese imports. It has in its sights everything from steel to solar panels and washing machines . . .
https://www.wsj.com/articles/battle-stations-u-s-and-china-prepare-for-trade-clash-of-the-titans-1516098604?mg=prod/accounts-wsj
​

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jan/16/donald-trump-tells-xi-jinping-disappointment-growi/
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HOOVER POLICY BOOT CAMP

1/19/2018

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ECONOMICS ONE
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A NEW CHINESE FINANCIAL ERA? & THE LIMITS TO U.S. MONETARY POLICY FOR THE NEXT RECESSION

1/12/2018

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China tries to breathe new life into corporate walking dead
BY GORDON WATTS
State-owned ’zombie companies’ have been closed, merged or forced to slim down after being weaned off subsidies and overproduction
The New Era of Chinese Economy and China's Financial Opening-Up 
The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) and the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) will host the PIIE-CF40 Third Annual China Economic Forum on "The New Era of Chinese Economy and China's Financial Opening-up" on January 11, 2018. The first panel, "Interpreting the 'New Era' of Chinese...
China’s record US trade surplus leaves Trump trumped
BY GORDON WATTS
The US president will hate the figures after saying he is getting 'much tougher' on the world's second largest economy

Six provinces foot the bill for Beijing’s rising expenses
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Most of the China's provinces recorded negative cash flows in 2016-17, yet the central government continues a spending spree

Ready or Not for the Next Recession?
Barry Eichengreen
 laments policymakers' limited scope to use monetary and fiscal tools when another downturn arrives.
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BEIJING:  STOP BUYING U.S. TREASURIES & CHINESE INVESTMENT AROUND THE WORLD

1/11/2018

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Report: Beijing considers putting breaks on US treasury purchases
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
US dollar, debt slide on news

Fake News from Bloomberg about China’s US Treasury holdings
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
A Bloomberg News story on January 10th claimed that unnamed Chinese officials want to buy fewer US Treasury securities. The US dollar fell, modestly, and US bond yields, modestly, rose on the news

Chinese investment around the world
Derek Scissors | China Global Investment Tracker 
The value of China’s overseas investment and construction combined is approaching $1.8 billion, and the China Global Investment Tracker is the only comprehensive data set covering China’s global investment and construction activity.

Private data, not private firms: The real issues in Chinese investment
Derek Scissors | American Enterprise Institute

Medieval Wisdom On When to Start Worrying About The Bond Market
quoting Paul Schmelzing via Bloomberg
The Middle Ages could tell us whether we need to think about the rally's end. Or not.

Chinese investment in the US 
Derek Scissors | AEI 
The leading recipient of Chinese investments is the US, which has received $170 billion from 2005 through 2017. A new data set allows users to sort these transactions by congressional district.
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THE SORRY STATE OF CHINESE BONDS & AVOIDING ECONOMIC COLD WAR WITH CHINA

1/8/2018

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China targets leverage in bond markets
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Crackdown on under-the-table transactions expected to improve transparency

Avoiding an economic cold war with China 
James Pethokoukis | The Week 
Last week, the Trump administration blocked a $1.2 billion purchase of Moneygram by Ant Financial, an electronic payments firm controlled by Chinese internet tycoon Jack Ma. The deal failed to get approval from an interagency panel that reviews the potential national security impact of foreign investment. That action could set off a troubling trend. America, as the world’s leading market economy, should continue to set an example of the sort of economic openness that supports global growth. 

Chinese millennials appear indifferent to Xi’s ‘China Dream’
 XUAN LOC DOAN
China would win trade war with US: Lardy
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Says Trump tax changes will make trade deficit go up
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HIGHER RATES & LOW BONDS:  U.S. SURGES FORWARD

1/8/2018

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E21
US private sector job creation surges in December
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Continues string of positive data around the globe

Fed rate hike expectations already built into real yields
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Rise in oil price doesn’t portend broader rise in US prices, or more Fed tightening

Raghuram Rajan Bats For Steady Monetary Policy Tightening To Avoid Asset Price Shock
interview with Raghuram Rajan via Hoover Daily Report
Hoover Institution fellow Raghuram Rajan discusses the steady rollback of the accommodative monetary policy by global central banks amid robust economic growth.
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WHY THERE'S NO INFLATION

1/7/2018

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Why Low Inflation Is No Surprise
Brad DeLong
 challenges economists' abiding assumption that another price spiral is always just around the corner.
Oil price accounts for all the rise in breakeven inflation
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Only one thing has changed amid recent rise in bond yields
WHY THERE'S NO INFLATION
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CHINA:  CAN IT INNOVATE? & THE YUAN PICKS UP STEAM IN FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS

1/3/2018

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China, the Innovation Dragon
China has achieved much since 1978, when Deng Xiaoping initiated the transition to a market economy. In terms of headline economic progress, the pace of China's transformation over the past 40 years is unprecedented. The country's GDP grew by nearly 10 percent per year on average, while reshaping...

Defying gravity means solving China’s economic puzzle
BY GORDON WATTS
Dealing with the aftershocks of becoming an industrial power, such as pollution, overproduction and rural rejuvenation, will take careful handling

ECB adds RMB to its reserve portfolio
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Acknowledgement of yuan’s growing role just the beginning, says ECB’s Coeure

Bank of Pakistan allows use of yuan in bilateral trades
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Public and private enterprises can use the RMB as a settlement currency, as the central bank has already enacted laws to promote its use
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    BRAD SETER FOLLOW THE MONEY

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    US-CHINA TRADE WAR EXAMINED

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    TRADE WAR DIARIES

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    CROSS BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS

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    THE CHINA DIGEST

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    WHAT WILL INDIA LOOK LIKE IN 2025

    U.S. Needs Steady, Strategic Central Bank.wsj.pdf
    File Size: 163 kb
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    The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking pdf
    File Size: 211 kb
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    What Uber Can Teach the Fed pdf
    File Size: 150 kb
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    Trump, Trade & Money.pdf
    File Size: 333 kb
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