MONETARY REGIMES - CounterStrikeMedia

CHINA WILL NOT TALK REGIME CHANGE, SO IT OFFERS DEEP CONCESSIONS ABOUT US TRADE DEFICIT

1/30/2019

There Is No Sino-American Trade War
by Martin Feldstein via Hoover Daily ReportChinese negotiators recently offered to buy enough American products to reduce the bilateral trade deficit to zero by 2024. Why, then, have US negotiators rejected that as a way to end the dispute?

Elizabeth Economy: The Third Revolution: Xi JinPing and the New Chinese State
via Hoover Daily ReportHoover Institution fellow Elizabeth Economy discusses her book The Third Revolution: Xi JinPing and the New Chinese State.

Don’t hand China the economic crown just yet
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
China is hardly the first country that the US has feared might economically eclipse it. In the 1960s, it was a rising Russian economy that the US feared might outpace it. Then, in the 1980s, it was the Japanese economic miracle that caused the US to shudder.

XI JINPING WARNS THE PARTY: THE CRISIS IS PERMANENT

1/25/2019

THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE

VAST POLICE STATE CALLED ONE BELT ONE ROAD

CHINA HERITAGE: CHINA'S COMMUNIST, SOCIALIST DREAM FALTERING

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST: HOW CHINA'S POLITICAL LEADERSHIP MISREAD TRUMP

SINOLOGY: ANDY ROTHMAN, HAS THE END ARRIVED FOR CHINA?

Xi sells ‘One China’ dreams to the wrong country
Michael Mazza | The National Interes

TURKISH CURRENT ACCOUNT & ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN VULNERABLE

1/25/2019

Turkey headed for debt default
Desmond Lachman | Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum

Turkey demonstrates how to bungle a currency crisis
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
President Recep Erdoğan’s mismanaging the Turkish lira substantially heightens the likelihood that Turkey will soon default on its external debt mountain.

It’s time for Turkey to go hat in hand to the International Monetary Fund
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

Istanbul on brink of bankruptcy
Turkish President Erdogan has repeatedly said, “If we lose Istanbul, we lose Turkey,” but he indeed may have lost it electorally and in terms of financial accountability.

CFR

Economic woes set to seal fate of Turkey’s local polls
Public opinion polls show that economic problems have climbed to the top of the Turkish public’s concerns and electoral support for the ruling party is on the decline ahead of municipal elections in March.

Erdogan’s Eyes on Turkey’s Largest Private Bank

Why Turkey’s export rise is hard to sustain
A heavy reliance on imported inputs to manufacture goods for export casts a shadow on Turkey’s hype about headway in foreign trade.

M. Bahadir Gulle writes: Turkey can face the danger of becoming a new Venezuela if it cannot finance its current account deficit. In such a case, Erdoğan will inevitably adopt a more nationalist and discriminatory discourse to keep his base solidified. […]The risk of a permanent break off from the West will loom. Losing the support of the West will force Erdoğan to get closer to authoritarian regimes like Russia and China. – Washington Examiner

Turkey’s central bank Monday tweaked its reserve requirements in a move seen by investors as a backdoor tightening aimed at helping the country’s ailing currency. […]The lira came under renewed pressure after the national election board earlier this month canceled results of the Istanbul mayoral race, which the ruling party of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lost, fueling investors’ concerns of political instability and economic volatility. Tension has also been mounting with the U.S. over Ankara’s push to purchase Russian S-400 missile defense systems, a move that could lead to sanctions from Washington. – Wall Street Journal

ORIANA SKYLAR MAESTRO REVEALS CHINA'S GLOBAL AMBTIONS & THE ECONOMIC BRAINS LEADING CHINA'S REBALANCING

1/24/2019

China cannot afford debt traps
Cecilia Joy-Perez | CQ Researcher

China’s strategy to gain power in Asia
Oriana Skylar Mastro | AEI video

Antagonistic Competition Marks U.S.-China Relations 40 Years After Normalization
by Michael R. Auslin via National Review
Amid the tumult of America’s domestic politics, the 40th anniversary of the normalization of Sino–U.S. relations passed almost unnoticed on January 1, commemorated only in subdued comments from Washington and Beijing. The relationship, once heralded by leaders in both countries as the world’s most important, is currently in flux.

CAIXIN: CHINA'S FINANCIAL NEWSITE

CHINA'S CONFUSING NATIONAL POLICY ABOUT STIMULUS & HOW US SHOULD COUNTER BEIJING'S GLOBAL AMBITIONS

1/24/2019

Rising costs of China’s stimulus addiction
BY WILLIAM PESEK
As President Xi Jinping turns Beijing’s stimulus-industrial complex up to 11, 'Minsky moment' risks only increase

Opposing China's Dangerous Ambitions

Rising costs of China’s stimulus addiction
(Asia Times) Suddenly, this president for life thing is looking less like a win for Xi Jinping as China loses altitude. Last year, he won the Communist Party’s approval to stay on indefinitely – all part of his plan to out-reform Deng Xiaoping.

More Bad News For China
by Michael R. Auslin via National Review
The Wall Street Journal reports that China’s economy is growing at its slowest rate since 1990 — and that those are the official figures, which, as the article notes, are viewed increasingly skeptically by economists. Of course, the official 6.6 percent growth rate would be the envy of all developed countries, but for China, it’s a continuation of a slowdown that underscores the major challenges facing the Chinese Communist Party and government in the next decade. As I argued in my book, The End of the Asian Century, decades of sweeping problems under the rug have caught up with China.

TRUMP, CHINA, THE TRADE DEFICIT & THE IMPACT OF THE IMMINENT COLLAPSE OF CHINA ON ITS SECURITY AND MARITIME POLICY

1/23/2019

A US-China deal will do nothing to shrink our trade deficit
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

More Bad News for China
By Michael Auslin, National Review: “This worsening slowdown, which is the new normal for China, may have major effects on Beijing’s foreign and security policy.”

Xi Jinping and China's Maritime Policy
By Andrew Chubb, Brookings: "The ascension of Xi Jinping to the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has often been posited as a turning point for China's policy in the South and East China Sea maritime disputes. As early as 2013, You Ji of the University of New South Wales assessed that Xi had been “instrumental in changing China's passivity” into an assertive strategy to defend China's claims."

Ex-RBI Governor Rajan Says U.S-China Dispute Far Bigger Than Trade
interview with Raghuram Rajan via Bloomberg
Hoover Institution fellow Raghuram Rajan discusses the US-China trade dispute, Federal Reserve policy, global economic risks, and the state of India's economy.

BROOKINGS EXAMINES IF CAN CHINA DEVELOP AN EVOLUTIONARY POLITICAL ECONOMY?

1/22/2019

BROOKINGS

What Next For China's Development Model?
by Michael Spence via Project Syndicate
Even if China maintains its market-oriented reform momentum, tensions with the West are unlikely to be resolved quickly. While steps can be taken to reduce these tensions, they cannot be easily eliminated, which means that they will probably be a key factor shaping the future of China’s development model.

Gary J. Schmitt writes: Although changes in American and Chinese leadership have brought current tensions between the two nations to the fore, the underlying reasons for the tensions are not tied to either President Donald Trump or President Xi Jinping coming into office. […] The administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy is a relatively coherent response to the challenge China poses. But questions remain about the administration’s ability to resource it sufficiently and carry it out steadily given President Trump’s own idiosyncratic America First policy views. – American Enterprise Institute

CHATHAM HOUSE UK EXAMINES IF US MONETARY POLICY TAMED CHINA & FORBES, NYT EXAMINE US-CHINA POLICY WITH EDWARD PRASAD

1/18/2019

FORBES
NYT

NYT: EDWARD PRASAD

How US Monetary Policy Tamed Chinese Foreign Policy
Higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar have played a role in curbing China's self-confidence, writes David Lubin. Read the expert comment >

The Unexplored Territory of Booming Global Debt
Robert Samuelson, Washington Post

Big is beautiful but not for China’s ‘walking dead’
BY GORDON WATTS
State-owned enterprises post record profits as Beijing again announces plans to tackle prowling ‘zombies’

CHINA'S RECESSION ISN'T AMERICA'S GAIN & THE PUSHBACK AGAINST CHINA HAS BEGUN

1/15/2019

China’s next policy change: Not what President Trump hopes for
Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan | AEIdeas

Who lost China (again)? A long-read Q&A with Zack Cooper
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

Dan Blumenthal and Derek Scissors write: The administration has demonstrated some good instincts on China, but it must not be distracted by the next round of Beijing’s false economic promises. Protecting innovation from Chinese attack makes the United States stronger. Hindering the Chinese security apparatus makes external aggression and internal repression more costly for Beijing. China is our only major trade partner that is also a strategic rival, and we should treat it differently from friendly countries with whom we have disputes. If Washington wants the global free market to work, it must intervene to blunt Beijing’s belligerence. – American Enterprise Institute

Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan writes: The upcoming visit to Washington by President Xi’s top aide Liu He will surely offer some clues as to how the trade talks will play out. But for those who think Mr. Liu will bring a major concession to the table, here’s our algorithm’s advice: Curb your enthusiasm. – American Enterprise Institute

Sean Kelly writes: There are more abstract considerations about the geostrategic consequences of China’s lunar goals. […] China wants to build a base that would be physically on the Moon, rather than orbiting around it. Having the two most powerful countries competing for territorial, resource, and scientific dominance on Earth’s Moon will increase the chances of conflict—especially because this jousting will take place in a relatively lawless environment. – Hudson Institute

Chinese investment: State-owned enterprises stop globalizing, for the moment
Read Online Printable Copy
KEY POINTS

Chinese investment around the world fell sharply in 2018. The decline was most evident later in the year and among state-owned enterprises. These companies also engaged in fewer power construction projects.
The number of countries in the Belt and Road Initiative keeps expanding, but activity levels per country are flat. One explanation for weakness in various Chinese efforts to “Go Out” is caution in drawing down foreign exchange reserves.
The US has restricted Chinese investment, but it was already small in size in 2018. Serious problems remain—for example, theft and coercive transfer of technology. Firms violating American law should face sanctions, not just investment bans.

Read this publication online.

View a printable copy.
China Global Investment Tracker
Derek Scissors | AEI and the Heritage Foundation | January 2019 update

How to evaluate China’s economy
Derek Scissors | AEI | January 3, 2019

China’s global investment: Neither the US nor Belt and Road
Author | AEI | July 11, 2018

Be wary of spending on the Belt and Road
Cecilia Joy-Perez and Derek Scissors | AEI | November 14, 2018

RUSSIA BUYS QUARTER OF WORLD'S YUAN RESERVES WHILE CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL GROWTH GOES NEGATIVE

1/12/2019

BLOOMBERG

FORBES

China’s worse-than-expected trade data don’t tell whole story

China will ‘face development challenges’ amid downturn

AEI’s Derek Scissors and Daniel Blumenthal: China is a dangerous rival, and America should treat it like one

WHY CHINA CANNOT BECOME A MODERN COUNTRY

1/8/2019

Why China Clings to State Capitalism
Robert Samuelson, Washington Post

CHINESE WORKER SOLIDARITY DOSEN'T EXIST & THE REIGN OF CHINESE SLAVE LABOR

1/8/2019

WHY SANCTIONS REMAIN US ONLY OPTION AGAINST CHINA

1/8/2019

HOW THE US ECONOMY REMAINS INDEPENDENT, DESPITE GLOBALIZATION

1/8/2019

HOW TO EVALUATE THE CHINESE ECONOMY & WHAT STRUCTURES PRESIDENT XI JINPING'S MINDSET

1/4/2019

AEI, DERECK SCISSORS

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Anne Stevenson-Yang writes: In this way, China lost the support of foreign businesspeople, who have become disillusioned with the market, tired of the pollution, and now fear for their physical safety. (The detention of three Canadians in retaliation for the Huawei arrest looks like pure thuggery.) Initially, it was startling and encouraging that a U.S. administration was finally willing to call China’s bluff. – Bloomberg

Reihan Salam writes: Trump ought to play against type by championing the interests of ordinary Chinese workers. That would pressure the Chinese party-state right where it is most vulnerable—and drive home the point that our quarrel is not with the Chinese people, but with the Chinese party-state. – The Atlantic

US-China Relations At 40
by Elizabeth Economy via The Diplomat
2019 should be a year of celebration; it marks 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China. Bilateral trade and investment between the two countries has grown exponentially from $5 billion in 1980 to $710 billion in 2017; student exchange and tourism numbers have soared; and peace has been maintained in the Asia-Pacific.

Derek Scissors’ new report is not a report on how China’s economy is doing. It is a more complex report on how to determine how China’s economy is doing. China manipulates its data and figures, making it difficult to accurately evaluate its economy. However, by examining 15 major indicators for importance and reliability, Scissorsexplains that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita should be deemphasized and that the most valuable indicators are the worst measured. Learn more here.

Why are the United States and its allies so consistently surprised, wrong-footed, and reactive in the ongoing confrontation over nuclear weapons with North Korea? In a National Interest op-ed, Nick Eberstadt outlines two unpleasant but inescapable reasons. First, the “North Korean nuclear crisis” is a drama set directed by Pyongyang. Second, North Korean leadership clearly has a strategy, while the great powers just as clearly do not. If the US wants a sense of where the “nuclear crisis” is heading next year, it needs a sense of where North Korean strategy will be taking it. Finish here.

Xi Jinping Thinks China Is World's Only Sovereign State
by Gordon G. Chang

CHINA EASES CAPITAL CONTROLS

1/3/2019

China tweaks capital controls as policy makers walk tightrope
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Central bank looks to balance looser monetary policy and stable yuan

How did the US become the global superpower?

Central bank to relax reserve ratio criteria to enhance lending
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
The central bank says this will help expand coverage of its preferential policies and guide banks to better meet the credit demand of small firms