Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania; in re: History speeding up, in the context of China. Wuhan coronavirus: Without governmental legitimacy there’s no transparency; without transparency in a crisis, there’s panic. An illegitimate Chinese dictatorship that won’t protect its population from pandemics.
China Critics Rewrite Basic Economics to Fit a Declinist Narrative. . . . The article author, Roger W. Robinson, wrote that “the Chinese state is pursuing a ‘Made in China 2025’ strategy designed to dominate key technology sectors—from artificial intelligence and quantum computing to hypersonic missiles and 5G.” [Ronald] Reagan would have had a field day with this. One reason he was so confident in the Soviet Union’s eventual collapse was because he knew state-planning of its economy would fail by definition. State planning of economic activity doesn’t work on all too many levels, but the main reason it doesn’t is that technological progress is as a rule a consequence of endless failure on the way to breakthroughs that are only arrived at after endless mistake realization.
The Seven Trends That Will Define China In The 2020S
mentioning Elizabeth Economy via South China Morning Post
What can the world expect from China in this new decade? Besides US-China tension, slower Chinese economic growth, vertical integration and the tilt towards Chinese domestic consumption are all likely to have an effect on the rest of the world.
Joseph Sternberg, WSJ, in re: Trade with China: we always assumed China was operating from a position of economic strength. However, in a lot of matters it’s weak: the population is ageing; the working-age proportion is shrinking, which will have big implications for the “factory to the world.” Is China ready to become a net importer? I’m not sure it is. . . . The problem with China is that it's not set up to operate in the global environment: it needs to make its currency convertible, open financial markets to attract capital, and reform corporate governance. A main reason that the US attracts investments to the enormous degree that it does is that we operate under the rule of law. To attract global capital, need to make investors comfortable, yet Xi Jinping seems to be working in the opposite direction. Will have to surrender a lot of political control, which will let their own citizens send capital overseas. Otherwise, China is in for a really rocky ride.
Bond defaults rise as China lifts credit allocationThe trend of rising defaults in China’s domestic bond market will extend its run in the foreseeable future as the allocation of debt becomes more disciplined amid Beijing’s growing tolerance for such episodes, writes Umesh Desai. Bond defaults in China rose to a record 130 billion yuan in 2019 from less than 1 billion five years ago, according to S&P Global, which said issuers from inland provinces had higher default rates due to weaker operating performances and tight funding conditions.