 China’s Future Ain’t What It Used To Be by Josef Joffe via Tablet Magazine In January, China’s National Bureau of Statistics made it official: After decades of fabulous GDP growth, the rate is now down to 3%. The culprit is Xi Jinping’s “zero-COVID” policy, plus ruptured supply chains and soaring energy prices. In the post-lockdown recovery, growth will of course bounce back, but not into the enduring double-digit rates prevailing since the 1980s, when China became the envy of the world. Reports: Saudi Arabia to deposit $1 billion in Yemen’s central bank The European Union also announced additional funding for Yemen, while a famine watchdog said that economic warfare is increasingly causing hardship for Yemenis. Netanyahu advances judicial overhaul in Israel's Knesset The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took the first step in getting its judicial reform adopted by the Knesset.
How To End Putin’s Forever War quoting Stephen Kotkin via The Nation In a wide-ranging and exceptionally thoughtful interview with The New Yorker, the historian Stephen Kotkin, best known as a biographer of Joseph Stalin, cast a cold eye on the notion that more of the same can lead to a negotiated peace. Kotkin notes that a war of attrition can continue indefinitely unless Russia’s military production capability—its ability “to resupply and produce more weapons”—is damaged.
Michael Rubin writes: Back to the present: Regime change in Iran will be difficult, but it is inevitable. Khamenei will die, and it is unclear any new ayatollah will be able to consolidate power. The Revolutionary Guards will play the role of the Russia-backed reactionaries of a century past as they intercede to stymie more liberal-minded politicians. It will be a tough fight—and very likely a violent one—but the sheer suspicion Iranians have of charismatic figures may ironically give them a second chance at democracy. After 115 years, they deserve one. – 19FortyFive Michael Rubin writes: President Donald Trump betrayed Syrian Kurds in order to appease Erdogan. Despite Biden’s promise to resist Erdogan’s blackmail, the default position of his team remains to appease. If Biden wants to drive a nail into the coffin of the Islamic State and Iran’s destabilization of the Middle East, there is no other option. The strategic interest of the United States should be to support and reinforce Kurdish autonomy and the AANES. – 19FortyFive Stanley Chao writes: Whether it’s throwing punches or doling out flowers, China is not really interested in ideological alliances or an international rules-based order. Whether you call it socialist market capitalism or pseudo-communism, China’s approach is one of a kind. Going it alone often begets chaos. It’s simply hard to predict China’s mood at any given time. Ultimately, however, Beijing does want to be a global citizen, just on its own terms. Expect surprises, good or bad, and then roll with the punches when they inevitably come. – The Hill Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan was granted protective bail by a court in the eastern city of Lahore on Monday, providing him respite from arrest for two weeks in a case that involves charges under the country’s anti-terrorism laws. – Reuters Chris Pope explains the mammoth task facing lawmakers as they attempt to curtail explosive federal spending and balance the budget in the next ten years. China’s Global Ambition And The US Response by Elizabeth Economy via PolicyEd Hoover senior fellow Elizabeth Economy provides her perspective on Xi Jinping’s global ambitions and how likely he is to succeed in reaching them. Nine Recommendations for Presidential Candidates on China Policy Dan Blumenthal, Zack Cooper, and Derek Scissors | AEIdeas There is bipartisan agreement that America’s next president will confront intensifying Sino-American competition and an aggressive People’s Republic of China. To develop comprehensive policy on how to approach the threats that China poses, Dan Blumenthal, Zack Cooper, and Derek Scissors put forth nine recommendations to presidential candidates. On the economic front, the US should ban Chinese participation in key supply chains, require the disclosure of lost intellectual property, and fully implement export controls. To deter military aggression, the US should replace strategic ambiguity, bolster military preparedness, and find ways to work with allies on technology issues. Lastly, the US can use all its recourses by creating a comprehensive counter-coercion strategy for Taiwan, go on the economic offensive against the Chinese Communist Party, and set up structures of collective defense in Asia. Read more here. >> Learn about AEI’s New China Playbook here. >> US “Guardrails” with China Are Shaky at Best Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion For much of 2022, America and China looked to be barreling toward conflict. As 2023 begins, Hal Brands notes that while the relationship has a new atmosphere, that will not last. Neither side is budging on its key interests, all the major disputes remain, and domestic politics are poised to play a spoiling role. What has emerged is a two-track relationship. Track one is intensified diplomacy, featuring renewed engagement on the climate and other transnational problems. The relationship’s second diplomatic track features ongoing and intensifying competition. Neither the US nor China has stopped seeing the other as its chief antagonist. Neither is slackening its efforts to strengthen its position. Continue here. >> Defense Funding—Highlights from Fiscal Year 2023 to Inform Fiscal Year 2024 Elaine McCusker | AEIdeas The new Congress must immediately begin performing its most critical duty—developing and debating defense policy and funding initiatives. Elaine McCusker provides three specific considerations for fiscal year 2024. First, cuts to the defense top line, particularly those that would revert to 2022 levels, would be irresponsible, wasteful, and dangerous. Second, as capacity is a capability of its own, and the current inventory of ships, planes, munitions, and ground assets is shrinking, procurement accounts should be a priority, even at the expense of research accounts if necessary. Lastly, Congress should gather real data on the impacts of three critical disruptors to the industrial base—inflation, workforce, and supply chain—to find spaces to save taxpayer money. Learn more here. >> Turkey: Putin's Open Door for Harming Western Interests by Burak Bekdil Gatestone Institute January 20, 2023 https://www.meforum.org/64064/turkey-putin-open-door-for-harming-western When Did Growth Begin? Evidence From England
by Jón Steinsson via Analysis Over the past few hundred years, economic growth has transformed the standard of living of a large and growing portion of humanity. In the early nineteenth century, the vast majority of people lived in what we now consider extreme poverty. Today, however, the fraction of people living in extreme poverty has dropped to less than 10 percent and keeps falling. The main driver of this monumental change is economic growth.
Priorities for Economic Policy Toward China
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas Increasing suspicion about China is causing many states to consider banning Chinese acquisition of US land. State governments can ban Chinese acquisition if they choose and it may prevent future problems, but it will do almost nothing to address our current economic vulnerability. Full Story
China's Rising Holdings of U.S. Agency Bonds
by Brad W. Setser
Iraq lowers dollar-dinar exchange rate
The Iraqi dinar has been depreciating against the dollar amid restrictions from the US Federal Reserve and other issues.
According to Hal Brands, PIVOT TO ASIA BEGINS
A Possible New Leader in the Global Economy
Allison Schrager, E21 The world is currently taking stock on the benefits of globalization, especially an overreliance on China which experienced spectacular growth in the last few decades. But China's economic future faces many challenges. Read more here....
Can a Staff Exodus Save Higher Ed?
If university administrators are unhappy, there’s the door.
The Master Negotiator?
By Javan David Frazier, Strategy Bridge: "The Gulf War, Tiananmen Square, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of communism in Europe, the Middle East peace process, and the ethnic fighting that erupted in Yugoslavia were just some of the challenges that Baker faced."
The International Monetary Fund’s Economic Crystal Ball Seems to Be Broken
Desmond Lachman | 19fortyfive.com
China and Russia Deepen Their Ties by Judith Bergman
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BRAD SETER FOLLOW THE MONEY
US-CHINA TRADE WAR EXAMINED
TRADE WAR DIARIES
CROSS BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS
THE CHINA DIGEST
WHAT WILL INDIA LOOK LIKE IN 2025
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