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monetary regimes, exchange rates, capITal - current accounts, crisis 

NO MIDDLE INCOME TRAP FOR CHINA?,  MASSIVE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CONTINUES, FAKING NUMBERS FOR TRADE NEGOTIATIONS & SETH CROPSEY

3/30/2019

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A Chinese fixed exchange rate is a bad idea 
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas 
No Middle-Income Trap for China
Stephen Roach, Project Syndicate
China's Coming Current Account Deficit?​
  Xi Jinping is winning the national security war
(The National Interest) America is underreacting to the challenges posed by Beijing. 
Does China Have Feet of Clay?
By Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): "Chinese President Xi Jinping seems to be on a roll. He has sent a rocket to the dark side of the moon, built artificial islands on contested reefs in the South China Sea and enticed Italy to break ranks with its European partners and sign on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative."
Seth Cropsey writes: There is insufficient evidence to conclude that China is preparing to initiate hostilities against either Taiwan or Japan. But China’s rulers have not ruled out force to, as they put it, “reunify” Taiwan with the PRC. And practice drills that simulate military movements in an actual conflict are standard armed force tactics. They provide an aggressor with important information about a potential opponent’s intelligence skills, command and control, response times, and tactical dexterity. – Hudson Institute
At the heart of President Trump’s negotiations with China is a troubling contradiction: The United States wants to use the trade talks to encourage the country to adopt a more market-oriented economy. But a key element of a prospective deal may end up reinforcing the economic power of the Chinese state. – New York Times
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For decades, Italy felt the brunt of the Chinese economic juggernaut that the United States argues poses a threat to the financial and political future of the West. China’s government-backed manufacturers, operating on a much larger scale with much cheaper costs, devoured small Italian companies producing machinery, textiles and pharmaceuticals. Chinese knockoffs infuriated its high-fashion brands. – New York Times
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CHINA VS. USA:  WHO IS BIGGER, WHEN & THE  HANG-UP'S ON TALKS, TRADE DEFICITS

3/26/2019

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AEI
ASIA TIMES
New Study on the Trade War
Robert Verbruggen, National Review
Derek Scissors writes: The near-universal belief that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has already passed or is soon to pass the US in size has multiple distinct flaws. These range from the gross—Chinese government statistics are unreliable—to the subtle—none of the ways economic size is measured are especially reliable. The policies of the two countries matter, especially whether China ever returns to the pro-market reform path. While evaluating the competing development models is contentious and complex, growth arithmetic is simple. – American Enterprise Institute
Sadanand Dhume writes: In my most recent Wall Street Journal column — read it here — I point out China’s double standards on Islam and Islamist terrorism. At home, Beijing persecutes members of the Uighur minority merely for practicing their faith. Overseas, China supports Masood Azhar, a hardened Pakistani jihadist blamed by the US, the UK, and other major Western democracies for fomenting terrorism against India. […] China’s apparent double-standard can be explained by a mixture of Communist Party amorality and realpolitik. – American Enterprise Institute
The true trade deficit and China
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas 
It’s true that continued economic expansion would make the deficit with the People's Republic of China smaller as a share of total US wealth. It’s also true that a bilateral trade deficit is a dubious measure of success or failure. The question is whether people who were convinced by 2016 candidate Donald Trump’s talk of the greatest theft in history, millions of jobs lost, and even rape will be convinced by the president insisting the trade deficit doesn't matter now.
BROOKINGS:  COMPREHENSIVE VIEW US-CHINA RELATIONS
ASIA TIMES:  US CHINA TRADE DEFICIT CHARTS FOR 2019
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CHINA'S BOND MARKET STILL SOURCE OF FISCAL, MONETARY PROBLEMS & HOW CHINA LEADS GLOBAL INDICES

3/23/2019

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ASIA TIMES
ASIA TIMES
China To Continue Proactive Fiscal Policy: Chinese Finance Minister
with Michael Spence via CGTNLarger-scale tax and fee cuts to the tune of nearly two trillion yuan are planned this year to ensure all industries will pay less, while urban employers can contribute a maximum of 16 percent of earnings to cover the basic pension, down from the previous 20 percent, China's top financial officer said on Sunday.
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TRUMP'S CHINA POLICY:  ECONOMIC DISENGAGEMENT, WHY CHINA WON'T FOLD FOR TRUMP; EXAMINING CHINA'S HIGH SAVINGS RATE & THE FUTURE OF US-CHINA RELATIONS

3/14/2019

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The High Costs of the New Cold War
By Minxin Pei, The Strategist (ASPI): “It’s convenient to call the escalating geopolitical contest between the United States and China a ‘new cold war’. But that description should not be allowed to obscure the obvious, though not yet sufficiently understood, reality that this new competition will differ radically from the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union."
Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan write: The slowdown of China’s economic growth has little to do with the trade war. It’s a consequence of China’s development model that took shape during Former President Hu Jintao’s administration. The structural issues on which America is demanding change are essential components of this model, and there’s no sign that China will deviate from it anytime soon. We make these claims not as China watchers—although we are—but as developers of a machine learning algorithm that’s able to analyze the Chinese government’s agenda and predict its future direction. – The China Business Review
is_trump_winning_the_china_trade_war__|_the_national_interest.pdf
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Will China fold on structural issues? An algorithm says not any time soon. 
Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan | China Business Review 
SELLING CHINA SHORT:  PROJECT SYNDICATE
China’s Still-Too-High Savings Makes China 2025 a Bigger Global Risk
Testimony: The future of the US-China relationship
Oriana Skylar Mastro | Senate Committee on Foreign Relations 
If Washington is unwilling to stand up to China as the most powerful nation in the world, it cannot expect anyone else to do so.
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN  ASIA TIMES, CHINESE FINANCIALS SOAR
CHINA GOES NUCLEAR
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US TRADE DEFICIT SOARS WHILE UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS, ITS ALL ABOUT CAPITAL FLOWS; AND WHY CHINA'S CURRENT ROUGH SPOT IS PERMANENT

3/8/2019

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trade_deficit_freak_out_-_wsj.pdf
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THE SIZE OF THE CHINESE ECONOMY
Can the Chinese dream ever be realized? A long-read Q&A with George Magnus 
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
FORBES:  CHINA DITCHES US LED ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM FOR TRADE WAR
The Wall Street Journal: Trade deficit freak out, no need to panic 
Mark J. Perry | AEIdeas
ASIA TIMES
ASIA TIMES
CHINA WANTS TO KEEP A YUAN PEG TO DOLLAR
China's Quiet Central Banking Revolution
Miao Yanliang welcomes the Chinese central bank's more open communication and increasingly flexible exchange-rate regime.
At stake is China’s avowed goal of establishing itself as a global superpower with influence over a network of allies to balance U.S. influence. China is pouring billions into global efforts such as Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative to forge stronger links with countries around the world. But China’s increasingly strident diplomatic approach could do more harm than good. – Bloomberg
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CHINESE CURRENCY REGIME IS.....WELL.......COMPLICATED; A LOOK AT MANAGED TRADE WITH CHINA & BEIJING STEMS ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

3/6/2019

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CHANNEL NEWS ASIA
CHINA'S ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING
CHINA FACES TOUGH ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
CHINA'S DOMESTIC ECONOMIC CHALLENGES GROWING
STATUS OF LIBERALIZATION OF CHINA'S ECONOMY
MANAGED TRADE:  COUNCIL FOREIGN RELATIONS
Nathaniel Taplin writes: Beijing and President Trump appear near to a trade deal: China buys a lot more U.S. stuff, gives some ground on auto-industry protections and intellectual property, and mostly ignores other U.S. complaints. What would that mean in practice? Mainly, a boost to already-competitive U.S. industries like natural gas, agriculture and autos—and a big hit to other major exporting nations. – Wall Street Journal ​
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s testimony to House Ways and Means last week indicated that the US would give China yet another pass. Any US-China deal is only worthwhile with strong enforcement. And this is even truer for President Trump. Find out why here.
The US-China economic relationship: A comprehensive approach 
Neena Shenai | Joshua P. Meltzer 

The US-China economic relationship has reached a critical juncture. Over the past year, the US has imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, and China has retaliated with similar tariffs. In a joint AEI-Brookings Institution policy brief, authors Neena Shenai and Joshua Meltzer argue that the US should work with China to find a long-term solution for a trade deal. Shenai and Meltzer propose a deal that addresses the issues at hand in a free-market manner and strengthens the multilateral global trading system and rule of law that the US has championed in the post–World War II era. Read the full report here and related products here. 
ASIA TIMES:  1 COUNTRY, 2 SYSTEMS, MULTIPLE TWEAKS 
ASIA TIMES:  THE NATURE OF CHINA'S STIMULUS FOR GLOBAL ECONOMY
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    BRAD SETER FOLLOW THE MONEY

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    US-CHINA TRADE WAR EXAMINED

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    TRADE WAR DIARIES

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    CROSS BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS

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    THE CHINA DIGEST

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    WHAT WILL INDIA LOOK LIKE IN 2025

    U.S. Needs Steady, Strategic Central Bank.wsj.pdf
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    The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking pdf
    File Size: 211 kb
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    What Uber Can Teach the Fed pdf
    File Size: 150 kb
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    Trump, Trade & Money.pdf
    File Size: 333 kb
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