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GREGORY COPLEY:  HOW U.S. MANAGES CHINA IN WAR

4/24/2020

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Coronavirus Could Revolutionize America's China Policy
By Emil Avdaliani, May 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Many argue that the coronavirus pandemic will ultimately benefit China more than the rest of the world, especially the US. After all, America is now the worst-hit country on earth in terms of human casualties. But the crisis could in fact help the US reorganize its geopolitical thinking toward the People’s Republic, resulting in a radical break in which Washington’s political and economic elites are newly unified against a rising Beijing.

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Foreign Shell Companies Trying to Infiltrate U.S. Defense Industry
By Richard Sisk, Military.com: "Without naming China, the Pentagon's acquisitions chief warned Thursday of foreign adversaries using shell companies to buy into struggling small defense firms during the coronavirus pandemic."
One concrete way to start decoupling with China
Gary J. Schmitt and Craig Kennedy | The American Interes
After the pandemic, America must again embrace creative, competitive capitalism
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
The China Rethink
China prospered while buying off greedy American elites. Now that alarm bells are ringing in Washington, who will answer the call?
  A contemporary woodcut depicts the Third Defenestration of Prague (1618), which marked the beginning of the Bohemian Revolt, and therefore of the first phase of the Thirty Years' War.

Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs, in re: The thirty-years' war between the US and China.  The virus is thought to have been developed in one of the Wuhan labs.  Is China winning? It's got a head start. If you make gains while our adversary is unaware, you have an advantage. This was an  unavoidable war for Xi Jinping, In October [2019], he announced that he’d begun: a [replica] of the original thirty-years war in Europe, which ended with the Peace of Westphalia redefining the entire power structure.

Xi said this new peace will overturn the rules-base world order from 1638 and replace it with control by Beijing, which will write the rules. Why did they embark now to become the global hegemon?  The PRC economy has been static since ten years ago and has declined for three.  If Xi allowed more freedom and enterprise, he’d lose control; therefore, he’s taken power from the private sector and augmented the state-owned enterprises, which have never contributed a nickel.  Must ensure that his competitors’s economies are destroyed. Massive hit to US, Europe, Australia, which have gone into enormous long-term debt to recover from the virus. China also put its factories back to work as quickly as possible so, when other nations start to recover, China can provide all the goods demanded and prevent the growth of local manufacturing.

Also, a strong move to separate Western allies from one another. We've seen this.  Europe is still reluctant to let go of the Chinese golden ring.  Europe still hopes to be bailed out by China.  China is trying to split the US from all its allies, then spilt all internal populations: the globalists from the nationalists.  It's doing a good job.

PRC intends to show itself as militarily strong and able to deploy force—but the last thing it wants is military confrontation with the US, which would be devastating to China.  China sends around the Liaoning to project power.
​Image:  The Thirty-Six Stratagems. 三十六計  Public domain.
       Chinese information operations and information warfare are based on concepts and terms similar to those used by the United States, but the Chinese have evolved them to be more suitable and relevant to Chinese culture and to the doctrine and policies of the Communist Party of China. While the People's Republic of China has adopted the idea of information dominance, its method for going about information dominance differs, using ancient methods such as the Thirty-Six Stratagems.
       The number thirty-six was used by Wáng as a figure of speech in this context, and is meant to denote numerous stratagems instead of any specific number. Wáng's choice of this term was in reference to the I Ching, where six is the number of Yin that shared many characteristics with the dark schemes involved in military strategy.

Tuesday 21 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block B:  Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs, in re:  China is boasting how it’s flying PPE to beleaguered nations, how an authoritarian state is so much better able to respond to a crisis than is a mere democracy. So far, we’re not responding brilliantly, but we're focussed on the debt. The key is to take this opportunity to simplify: reduce road blocks to starting businesses, and to eliminate bureaucratic requirement to existing businesses.  The laws on corp. bankruptcy have become stricter in the US, whereas one of the ways to keep capital moving is to dispense with unproductive businesses and let the capital go to startups. In Australia and Europe, this is [difficult]. Need to support serial entrepreneurship. 

The West needs to deny China what it needs most: food, and resources. If PRC threatens the US and its allies, or manipulate trade therefor, it's obligatory that the e US and allies do the same to it.  Failing that, it just prolongs the war and gives the advantage to the PRC.

The Quad:  US, Japan, an Australia can trust each other in the Quad talks. India isn't quite there.

Europe is under siege largely because of this transformed world.  To protect European borders and coastline from, e.g., Turkey, which is using population war by sending refugees to flood Europe, in numbers that the recipient nations can’t accommodate.

China thinks Pres Trump is starting to [respond to] the 30-yrs' war, so China is currently interfering in the US media to influence the November elections to a degree that no one has ever done before.
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EGYPT'S FOREIGN RESERVES FLOUNDERS & TURKISH ECONOMIC COLLAPSE PREVENTS TURNING ON S400; LOOKING AT US ECONOMY POST COVID

4/16/2020

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Turkey Shows the Value of Balance Sheet Analysis
by Brad W. Setser
Report: Private sectors in UAE, Egyptian, Saudi economies suffer dramatic losses
 IHS Markit, a global information provider, shows how the private sector has suffered major blows in the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Erdogan's cold war with Saudi Arabia and UAE
 Turkey's patience with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is running low, sources tell Al-Monitor.
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As foreign reserves dip, Egypt’s economy slows down
 Analysts study the sharp decline of Egypt’s foreign reserves due to the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic, with fears that the Egyptian pound would further weaken against the dollar.
Turkey’s S-400 delay is about more than just the economy and COVID-19
 Turkey’s deepening economic woes are widely seen as the prime reason behind its decision to delay the activation of the Russian S-400 systems. But an array of other factors have been at play that are forcing Ankara to think twice.
Emerging market risks to the economic recovery
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
  • “Eyes on the Other Global Crises” by Emily Estelle (Originally published in RealClearWorld)
  • “Salafi-Jihadi Ecosystem in the Sahel” and interactive graphic by Katherine Zimmerman
US BUDGET DEFICITS FOR COVID
Some Basic Economics of COVID-19 Policy
Casey Mulligan, Kevin Murphy, and Robert Topel, Chicago Booth Review
 
Borrower Beware: CARES Loans Carry a Steep Cost (subs.)
Paul Atkins, Wall Street Journal
 
Tax Complexity a Big Barrier to Economic Growth
Travis Nix, RealClearMarkets
 
Can Restaurants Survive?
Michael Brendan Dougherty, National Review

The States Are Toast
David Schleicher, Slate
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EXAMINING THE PACE OF US DECOUPLING FROM CHINA

4/14/2020

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From Non-Interference to Wolf Warrior: Chinese Foreign Internal Defense by Jimmy Zhang
Im-Politic: Evidence that Trump Would Be Foolish Not to “Run on China”
My response to the Asia Society’s joint statement on cooperation with China
Paul Wolfowitz | AEIdeas
External headwinds for a US economic recovery
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
US-China decoupling: a reality checkIy was a decoupler before decoupling was cool. I have advocated selective decoupling of the US economy from China for the past four years, arguing that the United States requires absolute self-sufficiency in strategic areas such as defense electronics. That, Dr Henry Kressel and I argued in a November 2016 Wall Street Journal op-ed, requires a massive national effort to bring computer chip fabrication back onshore. We wrote: “Washington should also enforce strict US content rules for sensitive defense technology. Many of the Pentagon’s military systems depend on imported components. That’s a concern on security grounds alone. Procurement rules should be changed to require that critical components be manufactured in the US.” Read More
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FIXING THE US DURING KUNG-FLU &  HOW TO UNDERSTAND RISK IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

4/6/2020

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Bradley A. Thayer and Lianchao Han write: One encouraging sign is that the CCP has developed deep cracks, and some may be reflecting on the consequences of dictatorship. True political reform that leads to democracy and the rule of law is the only way out for China. Ren Zhiqiang may be the last hope for creating a reformed China. If the nation falls into a Maoist abyss, it likely would take international peace and stability with it. – The Hill
What Coronavirus Could Mean for China 
By Emil Avdaliani, April 13, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: States all over the world stand to lose a great deal economically from the coronavirus pandemic. But in the case of China, there is an additional significant dimension to the crisis: the West will grow increasingly distrustful of Beijing, which will further widen an already gaping geopolitical divide. Calls in the West for an economic decoupling from China as well as increasing demands that Beijing comply with Western economic, health, and political standards could complicate China’s global aspirations.

Continue to full article ->
How to make China pay  
John Yoo and Ivana Stradner | NationalReview.com
International use of the yuan 'rising'
The Bank of China says there was steady momentum last year with increasing willingness of foreign companies to use the yuan/renminbi in financing and settlement. Read more
Minxin Pei writes: The events of the past few months have shown that CCP rule is far more brittle than many believed. This bolsters the case for a U.S. strategy of sustained pressure to induce political change. Washington should stay the course; its chances of success are only getting better and better. – Foreign Affairs
Hudson Institute’s Tim Morrison: Controlling Chinese weapons: The Wuhan virus and nuclear weapons
Joseph Bosco writes: Just as an increasingly reckless and irresponsible China unleashed the coronavirus pandemic on the world, its actions may well cause war to break out across the Taiwan Strait. If so — and like the pandemic, Tiananmen, Uighur concentration camps, live organ harvesting, persecution of dissidents and a range of other moral outrages, the institution of the Chinese Communist Party “will be perceived as having failed.” It will, at long last, be time for it to go. Priorities must be established. – The Hill
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HOW TO UNDERSTAND RISK IN FINANCE
how_to_save_the_economy.pdf
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James Andrew Lewis writes: China’s legitimate desire for economic development is complicated by powerful commercial motives. […]The U.S. and its allies have a strong hand to play in this contest, since the Party’s rule is fragile, and China’s economy, despite its size, needs access to and partnership with the West. A good first step, one where the U.S. might be able to persuade Europe and Japan to join us, is to insist on reciprocity in the treatment of foreign and Chinese companies. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
MI Responds: March 2020 Jobs Report
Beth Akers, Manhattan Institute
here_comes_the_great_deflation_threat_-_the_washington_post.pdf
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    BRAD SETER FOLLOW THE MONEY

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    US-CHINA TRADE WAR EXAMINED

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    TRADE WAR DIARIES

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    CROSS BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS

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    THE CHINA DIGEST

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    WHAT WILL INDIA LOOK LIKE IN 2025

    U.S. Needs Steady, Strategic Central Bank.wsj.pdf
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    The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking pdf
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    What Uber Can Teach the Fed pdf
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    Trump, Trade & Money.pdf
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