Iran: The Dollarization Temptation by Amir Taheri
In new research for AEI, Derek Scissors forecasts these dynamics to suggest why China may not be able to keep up with the United States into the 2040s.
When the Fed stopped focusing on inflation, it undermined the stability of our financial system.
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No Money, No Nukes: Time to Bankrupt China's Regime by Gordon G. Chang
China’s (Rough) Economic Trajectory to 2050
Derek Scissors | April 2023
Since the Chinese economy has matured and the policy trend is established, long-term forecasting should be more accurate. It’s still imprecise, of course, and vulnerable to any sharp domestic change.
The COVID-19 pandemic and recovery interrupted an economic slowdown that began in 2011 and will resume in 2024–25. China will still outperform in the 2020s, but its trajectory will be unmistakable by the end of the decade.
The 2030s will be worse. Aging will be the principal reason, augmented by a large debt burden and (unless lifted) self-imposed constraints on innovation. In the 2040s, these factors will effectively bring growth to a halt.
China’s Demographic Prospects to 2040 and Their Implications: An Overview
Nicholas Eberstadt | Psychoanalysis and Psychotherapy in China | May 26, 2020