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Karl W. Smith writes: When it comes to China, however, the president is doubling down. He has encouraged U.S. supply chains to move out of China and established subsidy programs to cushion farmers from the effects of a protracted trade war. Which leads to the long-term implications of this battle. A protracted trade war would almost guarantee a global realignment. Supply chains that run through both the U.S. and China would constantly be subject to disruptions, so global manufacturers would have to decide whether to pursue an America-centric or China-centric strategy. – Bloomberg
David Auerswald writes: China’s Arctic Policy puts forward an alternative governance narrative that plays to many Arctic countries’ focus on multilateralism in regional politics. In 2013, China agreed to abide by the jurisdictional rights of the Arctic states as a condition of being granted Arctic Council permanent observer status. That gave China a voice in Arctic Council working groups discussing issues like climate research, search and rescue coordination, and fisheries management. – War on the Rocks
Jon. B Alterman writes: China’s Middle East strategy, then, is not so much a single regional strategy as a portfolio of investments. China’s national ambitions in each country are narrowly focused on economic ties, and state-owned enterprises closely follow governmental priorities. The United States has seemingly comprehensive plans in almost every country but few resources, and a business community that follows profits wherever they can be found. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
 In a Washington Post op-ed, Marc Thiessen explains that President Trump didn’t start the current trade war. China did. Beijing has been waging economic warfare on the US for years — stealing intellectual property, forcing American companies to transfer technology as a price of doing business in China, and subsidizing state-owned enterprises to prevent US businesses from competing in dozens of sectors of the Chinese economy. The difference now is that Chinese leaders are facing a president who is willing to fight back. Continue here. Will the US and China ever reach a trade deal? Following the collapse of trade talks last week, Derek Scissors joined CNBC to explain that Trump’s tariff decision is tied to the timing of the G20 summit in June, where Trump will have the chance to talk to Xi Jinping. If the US were planning to pose these tariffs in the long term, the timing would be to allow American businesses to adjust. Instead, the timing is for the negotiations. Watch here. Last week, Zack Cooper joined “The Mike Schikman Show” to discuss US-China relations. Cooper notes that despite the attention on the trade war, policymakers are also concerned with China’s security situation, human rights abuses, and projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative. China uses economic coercion to change the foreign policy decisions of states in Asia and increasingly much further abroad. Listen here. Turkey grapples with big trade deficit with China Amid Washington’s trade war on China, Ankara is also grumbling about a massive trade gap with Beijing, but a number of factors stand in Turkey's way to resolve the deficit. Victor Davis Hanson: US-China Confrontation Will Define Global Order
via Hoover Daily Report The United States is at a crossroads with an increasingly aggressive China, which could define America’s security and the international order for decades to come, Hoover scholar Victor Davis Hanson says.
Sharpening the US-China trade debate
Reuters China trade is being argued in strings of tweets and seven-minute (if you’re lucky) TV segments. As a result, no one gets it quite right. Derek Scissors gives corrections of four important missteps in the debate.
Selling China Short
Stephen Roach says that three recent books reveal more about their authors’ assumptions than about where China is headed. CHINA STARTED THE TRADE WAR; THE HAN MASTERS MISREAD TRUMP & US DOMESTIC SUPPORT AGAINST CHINA5/13/2019
Trump didn’t start this trade war. China did.
Marc A. Thiessen | The Washington Post We should all be able to agree that China is an economic predator against which we need to fight back. Trump is using tariffs to force China to open its markets to free trade and competition.
Sharpening the US-China trade debate
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas China trade is being argued in strings of tweets and seven-minute (if you’re lucky) TV segments. As a result, no one gets it quite right. Here are corrections of four important missteps in the debate.
The Strategic Logic Behind the Trade War – Robert Kelly, National Interest
HOW CHINA SEEKS TO REFORM BELT ROAD INITIATIVE & RATING AGENCIES AND BOND MARKETS FOR CHINA5/13/2019 
The Second Belt and Road Summit
By Roie Yellinek, May 13, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On April 25-27, 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping convened a second summit of leaders and representatives from around the world to discuss his signature program, the Belt and Road Initiative. Xi’s keynote address revealed his take on Beijing’s trade struggle with the US as well as his approach to the concerns of poorer countries that lie along the initiative’s route. Continue to full article ->
Follow the Money China Never Stopped Managing its TradeSo long as the bulk of China's imports from the United States (and many others) are bought by state firms, China has the ability to manage its trade. The management isn't new. What's new is Trump's implicit willingness to accept managed trade so long as the trade is managed in a way that is judged to help the United States.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser |
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