With US-China trade talks set to resume next month, the trade war still appears to have no end in sight. Claude Barfield evaluates China's past promises and whether they have been kept.
As US-China trade talks restart, a checklist of Chinese structural ‘reforms’ to date
Claude Barfield | AEIdeas
At the heart of US negotiating priorities are a series of structural reforms in the deeply embedded Chinese technology mercantilist protection system.
Claude Barfield | AEIdeas
At the heart of US negotiating priorities are a series of structural reforms in the deeply embedded Chinese technology mercantilist protection system.
With some economic indicators flashing warning signs, are we on the verge of a global recession? Desmond Lachman evaluates the disconnect between global bond and risk markets.
What the global bond market is telling us
Desmond Lachman | The International Economy Magazine
The global sovereign bond market and global risk markets appear to be sending conflicting signals about the world economic outlook. While sovereign bond markets appear to be pointing to trouble ahead for the global economy, risk markets are much more sanguine. At a time when the world debt-to-GDP ratio is at a record level, a triggering of economic risks or major geopolitical event could have major repercussions for the global financial system. If bond markets are right and risk markets wrong, no one will be able to say they weren't warned.
Is a global currency war still possible?
Desmond Lachman | The International Economy Magazine
There is increasing cause for concern that we may be sleepwalking toward a world currency war. The main driver for concern is that the Trump administration’s policy actions are at odds with its policy objectives. When those objectives are not met, the administration might double down on its protectionist America First trade policy and respond in-kind to what it perceives to be Chinese and European exchange rate manipulation. There has seldom been as much need as there is today for responsible US international economic leadership to prevent a destructive currency war.
Desmond Lachman | The International Economy Magazine
The global sovereign bond market and global risk markets appear to be sending conflicting signals about the world economic outlook. While sovereign bond markets appear to be pointing to trouble ahead for the global economy, risk markets are much more sanguine. At a time when the world debt-to-GDP ratio is at a record level, a triggering of economic risks or major geopolitical event could have major repercussions for the global financial system. If bond markets are right and risk markets wrong, no one will be able to say they weren't warned.
Is a global currency war still possible?
Desmond Lachman | The International Economy Magazine
There is increasing cause for concern that we may be sleepwalking toward a world currency war. The main driver for concern is that the Trump administration’s policy actions are at odds with its policy objectives. When those objectives are not met, the administration might double down on its protectionist America First trade policy and respond in-kind to what it perceives to be Chinese and European exchange rate manipulation. There has seldom been as much need as there is today for responsible US international economic leadership to prevent a destructive currency war.
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