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monetary regimes, exchange rates, capITal - current accounts, crisis 

CREDIT, BOND RISK GOING HAYWIRE & CHINESE STRUCTURAL REFORMS EXAMINED

9/21/2019

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China’s half-full glass   
Paul Wolfowitz | AEIdeas
As US-China trade talks restart, a checklist of Chinese structural ‘reforms’ to date (Part II)
With US-China trade talks set to resume next month, the trade war still appears to have no end in sight. Claude Barfield evaluates China's past promises and whether they have been kept.
As US-China trade talks restart, a checklist of Chinese structural ‘reforms’ to date 
Claude Barfield | AEIdeas 
At the heart of US negotiating priorities are a series of structural reforms in the deeply embedded Chinese technology mercantilist protection system.
The ‘China hands’ got China wrong, but listen to them now 
Hal Brands | Bloomberg
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CHINA'S CREDIT RISK
With some economic indicators flashing warning signs, are we on the verge of a global recession? Desmond Lachman evaluates the disconnect between global bond and risk markets.
​What the global bond market is telling us
Desmond Lachman | The International Economy Magazine 
 
The global sovereign bond market and global risk markets appear to be sending conflicting signals about the world economic outlook. While sovereign bond markets appear to be pointing to trouble ahead for the global economy, risk markets are much more sanguine. At a time when the world debt-to-GDP ratio is at a record level, a triggering of economic risks or major geopolitical event could have major repercussions for the global financial system. If bond markets are right and risk markets wrong, no one will be able to say they weren't warned. 

 
Is a global currency war still possible?
Desmond Lachman | The International Economy Magazine 
 
There is increasing cause for concern that we may be sleepwalking toward a world currency war. The main driver for concern is that the Trump administration’s policy actions are at odds with its policy objectives. When those objectives are not met, the administration might double down on its protectionist America First trade policy and respond in-kind to what it perceives to be Chinese and European exchange rate manipulation. There has seldom been as much need as there is today for responsible US international economic leadership to prevent a destructive currency war. 
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EGYPT FLOATS THE CURRENCY, MAKING GHOST TOWNS

9/21/2019

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Why Egypt's construction boom creates ghost towns
 Egyptian leaders from Anwar to Sisi have attempted — and failed — to build lavish cities to relocate dense urban populations.
 
As pound improves, Egypt floats customs dollar rate
 The Egyptian Ministry of Finance recently floated the customs dollar rate, after having imposed a fixed rate in 2017 in an attempt to contain prices after floating the pound.
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ORWELL MEETS THE HAN:  NEWSPEAK IN CHINESE

9/19/2019

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INFLATION AND IRAN; GOLD RESERVES UP FOR AUTHORITARIANS

9/11/2019

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The interplay between exchange rates and inflation in Iran
While the Iranian rial has strengthened against the dollar, inflation remains high, and the budget deficit is not helping the matter.
ASIA TIMES
Pro-growth war?
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas 
Anti-China hawks in the US are eager for a New Cold War that would disentangle the two mega-economies, especially their technology sectors.
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THE FOREVER SLOWDOWN CALLED CHINA & THE IMF KEYNESIAN HOLD ON CHINA

9/5/2019

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Our Economy: A Good U.S. Manufacturing Jobs Report – for Trump Trade War Critics
The IMF's (New) China Problem
Posted on August 13, 2019
by Brad W. Setser
Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research in Hong Kong and author of Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism in China, in re: the Hong Kong protests. Carrie Lam’s offer to withdraw the original extradition bill was widely well received; but large numbers of young people are angry.  This looks as though it’ll drag on for a while.  Companies have been hurt: airlines, tourism, rentals to tourists, and retail sector all have diminished, but the big multinationals are all right, Investment banks, retailers, and the like, if damaged financially, may have to leave.   Carrie Lam’s earlier effort to quit and its having been denied by Beijing, which has hit back against a wall and doesn't know what to do. Will this affect Mainland in any way?  Not much.

In a new AEI report, Derek Scissors puts China’s economic “miracle” in context by comparing the country’s various stages of reform to Japan and Korea at analogous stages. Scissors reveals that historical comparison to Japan and Korea across a range of indicators shows that China’s miracle has faded prematurely, leaving the country far from rich and with little prospect to become so. Learn more here. 

China may be losing its influence over the North Korean denuclearization process, writes Oriana Skylar Mastro in a Foreign Policy op-ed. North Korea has become more of an independent actor, adeptly playing each country off another. While this strategy is nothing new, Kim Jong Un’s provocative diplomacy certainly is, and it is creating challenges for China, which wants to ensure that any resolution to North Korea favors its own interests. Continue here. 

In a Hill op-ed, Gary Schmitt explains that it is time for Western democracies to take the security threat the rise in Chinese military power poses seriously. China is no longer satisfied with being simply an Asian power, and Beijing has made it clear that it intends to be a serious player in the Arctic and Africa, which are the backdoors to Europe. Read more here.
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    BRAD SETER FOLLOW THE MONEY

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    US-CHINA TRADE WAR EXAMINED

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    TRADE WAR DIARIES

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    CROSS BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS

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    THE CHINA DIGEST

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    WHAT WILL INDIA LOOK LIKE IN 2025

    U.S. Needs Steady, Strategic Central Bank.wsj.pdf
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    The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking pdf
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    What Uber Can Teach the Fed pdf
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    Trump, Trade & Money.pdf
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