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monetary regimes, exchange rates, capITal - current accounts, crisis 

CHINA'S SECRET MEETING:  THE CHALLENGE OF US TARIFFS & HONG KONG

10/31/2019

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(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Trump-Like China Trade War Advice – from China!
We’ve all heard a lot about the pivot to great-power competition during this administration, but is it all talk? It’s looking that way. In a War on the Rocks op-ed, Mackenzie Eaglen poses five key questions about the US armed forces’ roles and missions that both civilian and military leaders need to consider. Eaglen concludes that the Pentagon will have to divest from various missions if it wants to get serious about better posturing the US military toward competition with China and Russia. Read more here.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Five-things-to-know-about-China-s-ongoing-party-plenum
Derek Scissors argues that the true failure is continuing to allow China to break our laws or even bending them ourselves for the sake of business. Instead, the US should target Chinese entities that benefit from intellectual property violations and tighten export controls, especially where advanced US technology is concerned. Keep reading here.

The defining geopolitical story of our time is the slow death of US hegemony in favor of a rising China, writes Michael Beckley in a Foreign Affairs op-ed. While Beijing appears to be a growing power and is a great threat to the US today, the approaching economic slowdown makes them a less competitive rival in the long term. As China becomes more repressive at home and more aggressive abroad, the US must contain the country’s outbursts with deterrence, reassurance, and damage limitation. Read more here.
China is placing a trillion-dollar wager that can transform its strategic geography from a constraint into a powerful geopolitical asset. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands points out the difficulties that China’s Belt and Road Initiative will face in the long term. In addition to instability, financial viability, and political struggles, there is also the question of how the US will respond. Unfortunately, with the Trump administration pursuing harmful trade policies, the US is creating precisely the economic running room that China needs. Continue here.
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Will Huawei Technologies build India’s 5G wireless networks? In the technological cold war between the US and China, India may be the biggest prize up for grabs, argues Sadanand Dhume in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. Washington wants India to reject Huawei and instead choose one of its Western rivals. Beijing, needless to say, is batting for its flagship technology firm. While India’s decision will likely depend more on national security concerns than economic factors, what Delhi decides will determine whether China will dominate the future of the internet. Finish here.
Trump's Trade Wars: A New World Order? 
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, November 8, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: President Donald Trump’s declared economic protectionism has taken the US’s international relations with several foes and allies into uncharted territory. His open-ended trade wars with several nations have triggered criticism among conservatives and liberals alike in the US. He has justified his actions by arguing for a downturn of America’s trade deficit, but the American people don’t seem to be on board with his logic. A recent Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey shows 63% of registered voters believe tariffs imposed on Chinese products ultimately hurt the US more than China, while 74% said American consumers are shouldering most of the burden of those tariffs.

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DOLLAR RUN IN LEBANON & TURKEY

10/27/2019

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Turkish Central Bank suffers big credibility loss
The Turkish Central Bank’s obedience to the government, both in terms of monetary policy and interventions in the foreign exchange market, is badly damaging its credibility among foreign investors, the ultimate cost of which will be borne by the crisis-hit economy.
ASIA TIMES
WHY THE SHIA CRESCENT BURNS
IMF TO MENA:  PRECURSOR TO THE ARAB SPRING
Lebanon central bank chief calls for immediate solution to avoid economic collapse 
Lebanon’s central bank governor, Riad Salameh, warned Monday against economic collapse if a solution to the country’s crisis is not found soon. “I am saying we need to have a solution in a matter of days to regain confidence and avoid collapse in the future,” Salameh told Reuters. The interview comes as nationwide protests against decades of corruption and the government’s mismanagement of the economic crisis enter their 13th day. Banks, schools and some businesses have been closed throughout the protests. 
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reuters.com
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HOW CHINA LOST ITS MERCANTILE WAR WITH THE AMERICANS

10/18/2019

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(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Can Free Trade Nowadays Really Maximize Global Well-Being?by Alan Tonelson
Since 2011, the US has widened its wealth lead over China by trillions of dollars. In a new AEIdeas blog, Derek Scissors explains that, contrary to popular belief, what matters to prosperity is not gross domestic product (GDP), but wealth. While both GDP and wealth measures are imperfect, GDP receives too much attention and wealth — which enables countries and people to acquire what they want — not enough. Although the US wealth story is ugly, it shows an American economy outpacing China for seven years and counting. Read more here.
Is the US economy pulling away from China’s?
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
Of course Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) rises; China is great at empty transactions. What matters to prosperity is not GDP — just try spending it — but wealth. The US has probably widened its wealth lead over China since 2011, by trillions of dollars.
WHY YOU CAN'T BE FRIENDS WITH CHINA
Douglas J. Feith and Admiral Gary Roughead write: China is actively erasing the line between commercial and military activities. And President Xi has killed the longstanding theory that China would have to liberalize as it grows its economy. The good news, however, is that the Chinese challenge is recognized by Americans on both the left and the right — rare common ground in a generally polarized community. Meeting the challenge requires effort at home and abroad. – National Review
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Now What in the U.S.-China Trade War?
by Alan Tonelson
https://www.chinalawblog.com/2019/09/chinas-new-cybersecurity-program-no-place-to-hide.html
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HOW CHINA MIS-UNDERESTIMATES TRUMP

10/15/2019

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Zeynep Tufekci writes: Is China an integrated part of the global failure and corruption of elites, failing in its own way due to shortsightedness and incompetence? Or is it a confident new superpower that is just beginning to throw its weight around? I can’t say for sure which is true, and I don’t think it’s easy to quickly conclude one way or the other, but we should consider the question with the full gravity it deserves, because the answer will shape the fate of billions in the 21st century. – The Atlantic
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TARIFFS & PROTECTIONISM:  THE LIMITS OF MERCANTILE REGIMES

10/11/2019

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Mercantilism: “the economic theory that trade generates wealth and is stimulated by the accumulation of profitable balances, which a government should encourage by means of protectionism.”   Public domain. 
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Veronique de Rugy, Mercatus Center, on Pres Trump and tariffs.  “Debating trade issues with President Trump’s anti-trade supporters is a constant game of goal-shifting. If you point out that the Trump tariffs are raising revenue for Uncle Sam on the backs of American consumers, they reply that China is hurting the most. If you note that the trade war is the main reason the stock market is losing its mind, not actions by Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, they reply that China is ‘a brutal Communist police state that abuses its own people and steals from the world.’”   https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/07/opinion/trump-trade.html
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CHIMERICA ISN'T DEAD:  HOW MANUFACTURING IS NOT RETURNING TO AMERICA & HOW CHINA'S COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IS DIMINISHING

10/1/2019

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CHIMERICA ISN'T DEAD
DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR CHINA
HOW CHINA SEEKS TO DISPLACE THE US TECHNOLOGICALLY 
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    BRAD SETER FOLLOW THE MONEY

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    US-CHINA TRADE WAR EXAMINED

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    TRADE WAR DIARIES

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    CROSS BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS

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    THE CHINA DIGEST

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    WHAT WILL INDIA LOOK LIKE IN 2025

    U.S. Needs Steady, Strategic Central Bank.wsj.pdf
    File Size: 163 kb
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    The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking pdf
    File Size: 211 kb
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    What Uber Can Teach the Fed pdf
    File Size: 150 kb
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    Trump, Trade & Money.pdf
    File Size: 333 kb
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