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OFFICIAL US POLICY WITH CHINA:  TOTAL DISENGAGEMENT, TAIWAN & WHY US CHINA RELATIONS TALK PAST EACH OTHER

11/29/2018

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The Dilemmas of Competing with Xi Jinping’s China   by Peter Mattis​
NATIONAL INTEREST
The commander of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific said China’s “pernicious approach” to its Belt and Road initiative and increased militarization of the South China Sea is heightening tensions between the world’s two biggest economies. – Bloomberg

For the near-term future of the global economy, which is already running into serious headwinds due to a year of rising trade tensions, the biggest question is whether Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will call a truce or double down on their trade war. – Foreign Policy
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Editorial: As they contend with Mr. Trump now, Chinese policymakers must understand that he won the presidency in large part because of American dismay — especially in the industrial heartland — with the results of China’s behavior, and what the public perceived as a failure of U.S. leadership to check it. For his part, Mr. Trump should understand that he has a mandate for a smart course correction, not an aimless, blunt-force exercise in “America First.” – Washington Post
China and the U.S. are on the brink of a new Cold War, with tensions over trade at the top of the agenda. […]That the two countries arrived at this point, despite years of tension, wasn’t inevitable. Rather, it played out this year in the corridors of power in Washington and Beijing, with both maneuvering—and often miscalculating. – Wall Street Journal
An Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer and a Henry Kaiser-class fleet replenishment oiler sailed through the Taiwan Strait Wednesday, in what the Navy called a routine transit. – USNI News
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A new study highlights China’s growing air power, and warns that China is looking to build out its Air Force to the point that the U.S. would not be willing to take it on in direct conflict. The Project Air Force team at Rand Corp. describes an emerging Chinese air force that aims to rival the United States’ own, both technologically and strategically, often by mirroring U.S. military capabilities and doctrine. – Air Force Times
Robert J. Samuelson writes: As for the Chinese, they may think they can satisfy Trump by promising to buy more American exports. But U.S. grievances with China go much deeper. Foreign firms — including American — find it hard to compete in China and say they’re targets of discriminatory rules and investment practices. […]If so, the trade war may become a permanent fixture of the global economy. – Washington Post
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James Leibold writes: It is the regime’s fundamental insecurity — the fear of rebellion and eventually China’s dismemberment — that drives it deeper and deeper into the private lives of its citizens, only alienating them. The repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang is just the extreme manifestation of the C.C.P.’s virulent — and unsustainable — pursuit of total control. – New York Times
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CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK MIMICS US FED & HOW XI JINPING IS THE NEW MAO

11/29/2018

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China’s Central Bank Becoming More Like the Fed
Daniel Moss, Bloomberg
The Dilemmas Of Competing With Xi Jinping's China
quoting Elizabeth Economy via War on the Rocks 
Last year in October, President Xi Jinping strutted to the podium at the Chinese Communist Party’s 19th Party Congress to read his work report. For more than three hours, Xi forced his colleagues to sit and listen in one of the most ostentatious displays of that infamous Chinese phrase, “you listen, I speak,” to which anyone has ever been subjected. More than any other event of the last six years, the 19th Party Congress pressed home Xi’s influence on the Chinese party-state. His ideas were incorporated into the constitution. No obvious successor emerged, suggesting Xi would hold the reins of power indefinitely.

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WHO ARE THE APPEASERS OF RED CHINA & CHINA'S OWN DEBT TRAP

11/27/2018

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FORBES
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MIKE PENCE AT APEC WAS THE REAL BATTLE BETWEEN BEIING, WASHINGTON & THE ART OF DECODING CHINA'S PEOPLE'S DAILY

11/27/2018

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The APEC summit: A turning point?
Claude Barfield | AEIdeas 
As a window to the future, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum may be more consequential than whatever takes place next week at the G20.
Sinology 2.0: Decoding China’s People’s Daily
Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan | AEIdeas 
Researchers have employed modern-day text analysis and machine learning to decipher the People’s Daily, which has published nearly two million articles spanning more than seven decades. With these techniques, the process of “china-watching” is more of a science and less of an art.
An Agenda for Resolving the US-China Conflict
Stephen Roach urges both countries' leaders to focus on four issues when they meet at the upcoming G20 summit.
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THE ASIAN DEBT TRAP:  ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK REVEALS LEDGER

11/27/2018

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Asian Development Bank signals bond siege
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HOW IMF HITS PAKISTAN FOR DEBT RELIEF & WHAT'S THE STATUS OF CHINA'S TECH SECTOR

11/26/2018

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IMF links Pakistan bailout talks to financial blacklist
BY F.M. SHAKIL
Pakistan’s hopes of getting a $6 billion lifeline may hinge on how it responds to demands for a crackdown on money laundering, terror funding and financial details of its deals with China
 China’s tech giants are looking weaker than ever
(Bloomberg) The startup phase is long gone. It’s time they show some financial maturity. 
 
Pakistan rupee plunges after govt cuts support amid bailout talk
BY KUNWAR KHULDUNE SHAHID
Drop in value comes amid a potential IMF bailout that Islamabad is seeking to address its balance of payments crisis
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XI VS. TRUMP:  XI IS LOSING

11/23/2018

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Hard Power, Soft Power and the Stickiness of Kowtow Diplomacy
By Richard Herr, The Strategist (ASPI): " ... there’s an argument that Xi’s soft-power playbook doesn’t have the same roles or objectives as those in the Nye playbook.
Hal Brands writes: The basic message of Pence’s speech was that the region will find a better friend in a democratic America than a dictatorial China. And that message is not simply spin or propaganda. It reflects the fact that in today’s geopolitical competitions, a democratic superpower has advantages its authoritarian rivals will find hard to match. – Bloomberg
Ishaan Tharoor writes: For President Xi Jinping, the APEC summit was supposed to highlight China’s friendly face to the world. Instead, he faced off against Vice President Pence, who used the forum to decry China’s global development projects as “opaque” schemes that saddle weaker countries with “staggering debt.” The United States launched a rival infrastructure initiative, backed by Australia, New Zealand and Japan. […]The showdown illustrated a deepening political reality in Asia: Many countries are far more wary of an increasingly assertive China than the United States, the old guarantor of security in the Pacific. – Washington Post
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Daniel Moss writes: The collapse of a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders last weekend in Papua New Guinea isn’t the end of the world. In fact economic relations between the 21 nations won’t change much. Most need both China and the U.S. — and that’s what they will continue to get. – Bloomberg
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HOW CHINA DEALS WITH CAPITAL FLIGHT

11/20/2018

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how_china_copes_with_capital_flight_-_wsj.pdf
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CNN:  CHINA'S STAGNATING GROWTH
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WHO OWNS CHINA'S BOND MARKET

11/20/2018

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FORBES
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CHINA STIMULUS FAILING FAST

11/20/2018

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BLOOMBERG
china’s_central_bank_gives_itself_more_leeway_on_setting_exchange_rate_|_financial_times.pdf
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CNBC:  BRACE FOR CORPORATE DEFAULTS
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HOW STRONG DOLLAR HELPS US & STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS IN US CHINA TRADE WAR

11/19/2018

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a_strong_dollar_is_good_for_america_-_wsj.pdf
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Structural problems at the heart of trade war
BY GORDON WATTS
Former finance minister Lou warns of the problems that negotiation teams face when Trump and Xi talk at the G20 in Buenos Aires
Trump ups the ante in fight against China’s intellectual property theft
Claude Barfield | The Hill 
The Trump administration is advancing a groundbreaking attack — if it is sustained — on Beijing’s unceasing theft of American intellectual property.
U.S., CHINA:
U.S. to Challenge China in Territorial Dispute Using Military, Economic Means

By Stew Magnuson, National Defense Magazine: “Indo-Pacific Command Commander Adm. Philip Davidson said the United States will continue to challenge China over its claims in the disputed South China Sea region with both military and economic means."
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HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE CHINA-US TRADE WAR

11/17/2018

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POLICY CHANGE INDEX
FORBES I
FORBES II
CNN:  CHINA'S ECONOMY CRASHING
 Be wary of spending on the Belt and Road
China’s Slowdown Will Have Significant Global Effects
Mickey Levy, E21
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HOW TO EXPLAIN JAPAN'S STAGNATION

11/17/2018

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HOW CHINA ESCAPES THE MIDDLE INCOME TRAP

11/15/2018

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BUSINESS.TIME
the_middle-income_trap_has_little_evidence_going_for_it_-_mixed-income_myths.pdf
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why_does_china_need_to_deepen_its_financial_reform_now__|_east_asia_forum.pdf
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china_outlook_2018_|_kpmg_|_global.pdf
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china’s_global_financial_integration__how_far_how_fast_-_knowledge_wharton.pdf
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REUTERS:  STEADY OPENING FINANCIAL SECTOR
CNBC:  CHINA PUSHES FORWARD ON OPENING UP
lessons_learnt_–_40_years_of_reform_and_‘opening‑up’_-_central_banking.pdf
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can_countries_escape_the_low_or_middle_income_trap.pdf
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escaping_the_middle-income_trap_|_time.com.pdf
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developing_the_bond_market_in_china__the_next_step_forward_in_financial_reform_|_cairn.info.pdf
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RAJAN:  THE SOURCE OF NATIONAL PANICS IN FINANCIALS

11/9/2018

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Cross-Border Capital Flows Source Of Financial Fragility, Says Raghuram Rajan
featuring Raghuram Rajan via Financial Express
Cross-border capital flows have been a source of financial fragility, former RBI governor and top economist Raghuram Rajan has said as he underscored that countries should see how best they can benefit from cross-border flows, without incurring the costs.
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THE DIE IS CAST:  EITHER XI JINPING WINS OR HE DIES, THE REFORM AGENDA IS ON

11/5/2018

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FT:  CHINA'S PRESIDENT GOES ON REFORM PATH
China will not be bullied by Imperialist powers, warns Xi confidant
BY GORDON WATTS
Vice-President Wang calls for an end to the trade war with the United States before his withering, parting shot
The Case for Pushing Back Against China by Dhruva Jaishankar ​
Over 40 years of diplomatic drama, a rising China opens up to, and transforms, the world
(South China Morning Post) On the blustery, cold morning of January 29, 1979, the red flag of China was flying over the South Lawn of the White House when US President Jimmy Carter welcomed Deng Xiaoping, the first Chinese leader to visit the United States since the communists took control of China in 1949.

CHINA SHOULD IMPORT MORE: CFR
Will Xi Jinping finally match his words with actions?
PBOC eyes three financing channels to aid private firms
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
People's Bank of China to utilize bonds, credits and equities and other financial tools, says governor Yi Gang
f The Chinese Look To The West For A Democratic Model, What Are We Showing Them?
mentioning George P. Shultz, Hoover Institution via The Washington Post
China may be close to achieving something “never before tried at any time in history,” the scholar Nicholas Eberstadt said last week. That new creation: “market totalitarianism.” No country has ever achieved vibrant, entrepreneurial prosperity while denying its people political freedom. And there’s good reason for that, or so we’ve always thought.
Gordon Chang and Thaddeus McCotter discuss Chinese president for life Xi, who said, We need take all complex situations into consideration; step up exercises to enhances servicemen’s ability to fight. . . Xi’s primary audience is the one at home. . . .

Chinese are feeling their oats, but are not yet able to shoot back at the US Navy. Xi Jinping has no Plan B. If Xi backs down, he loses power and maybe his life. He’s increased the cost of losing – which he knows – and he can take China over the edge. If he’s going to die, he might as well slaughter half of humanity if he thinks he’s got a chance to survive.

Foreign Affairs, Caitlin Thomas*: US Navy is likely to encourage China to go max in any exchange of weapons because we can strike at their nukes and they can’t strike at ours. China will get aggressive when you show strength or when you don't – the problem is the nature of the regime. We can detain China, and hope to deter – but we can't deter with weakness. This is why Trump is in such a difficult position now. There’s nothing anyone outside can do to re-institutionalize the CCP. The Party has to do that, itself. We had to confront China over its stealing hundreds of billions of dollars. Yuan is flirting with 7 to a dollar; in the black market, it's 8 to 1. Transaction fee today: 5% China moving from authoritarianism totalitarianism.

​Will China go nuclear? Yes – because it doesn't have the forces [the triad] that Russia has; an unstable regime and a man making threats against the US by a man who declares himself ruler for life.

Elizabeth Economy: Xi Jinping And The New Chinese State
interview with Elizabeth Economy via EastWest Institute
Hoover Institution fellow Elizabeth Economy discusses her third and latest book The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State.
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CHINESE CREDIT DRYING UP FAST

11/5/2018

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CHINA PREPARES FOR ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

11/3/2018

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SCMP
POLITICO
REUTERS:  SUPPLY CHAINS MOVING OUT OF CHINA
BLOOMBERG:  US SHOWS ITS STRENGTH OVER TRADE WAR WITH CHINA
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MAPPING THEIR WAY OUT OF A TRADE WAR

11/3/2018

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Talking their way out of the China-US trade war
BY GORDON WATTS
Influential economists and professors at the prestigious Peking University map out their economic visions of the future
Emerging Asia led world trade growth in August
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Region continues to outperform as Southeast Asian exports to China grow

China signals more support for economy amid ‘profound’ external changes
BY CHRISTOPHER SCOTT
Needle inches away from tackling financial risks to boosting growth 
China is changing, far beyond tariffs and exchange rates
(Bloomberg) This is not your grandfather’s China. It’s not your father’s China. At this rate, quite soon it won’t even be your China.
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A REVIEW OF XI JINPING'S TENURE TO TURN CHINA AROUND & A LOOK AT THE YUAN'S MOVEMENT WHILE US DEFICIT GROWS

11/1/2018

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Elizabeth C. Economy's The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping And The New Chinese State
by Elizabeth Economy, Michael R. Auslin via The National Bureau Of Asian Research
Elizabeth Economy’s book The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State examines Xi Jinping’s top political, economic and foreign policy priorities and his reform efforts to date. Reviewers David Shambaugh, Liselotte Odgaard, Yongjin Zhang, and Michael Auslin discuss the themes of the book and whether a true revolution is taking place in Chinese politics, with a response from Elizabeth Economy.
Michael Auslin: US-China Relationship Entering Uncertain Era 
via Hoover Daily Report
The United States is justifiably renegotiating its posture toward China after decades of that country manipulating the US on trade, political and cultural fronts, a Hoover scholar says.
CFR: YUAN MOVEMENT
Econ 101 predicted Trump would widen the trade deficit
Desmond Lachman | The Hill 
Under President Trump's watch, the US trade deficit widened over the past two years. It has now reached an all-time high, running at an annual rate of $1 trillion. With this administration’s budget and trade policies, the trade deficit will continue to widen.
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    BRAD SETER FOLLOW THE MONEY

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    US-CHINA TRADE WAR EXAMINED

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    TRADE WAR DIARIES

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    CROSS BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS

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    THE CHINA DIGEST

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    WHAT WILL INDIA LOOK LIKE IN 2025

    U.S. Needs Steady, Strategic Central Bank.wsj.pdf
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    The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking pdf
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    What Uber Can Teach the Fed pdf
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    Trump, Trade & Money.pdf
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