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GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA 
More HAYEK, LESS KEYNES
monetary regimes, exchange rates, captial - current accounts, crisis 

CHINA'S RECESSION ISN'T AMERICA'S GAIN

1/15/2019

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China’s next policy change: Not what President Trump hopes for 
Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan | AEIdeas 
Who lost China (again)? A long-read Q&A with Zack Cooper 
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas 
Dan Blumenthal and Derek Scissors write: The administration has demonstrated some good instincts on China, but it must not be distracted by the next round of Beijing’s false economic promises. Protecting innovation from Chinese attack makes the United States stronger. Hindering the Chinese security apparatus makes external aggression and internal repression more costly for Beijing. China is our only major trade partner that is also a strategic rival, and we should treat it differently from friendly countries with whom we have disputes. If Washington wants the global free market to work, it must intervene to blunt Beijing’s belligerence. – American Enterprise Institute 

Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan writes: The upcoming visit to Washington by President Xi’s top aide Liu He will surely offer some clues as to how the trade talks will play out. But for those who think Mr. Liu will bring a major concession to the table, here’s our algorithm’s advice: Curb your enthusiasm. – American Enterprise Institute 
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Sean Kelly writes: There are more abstract considerations about the geostrategic consequences of China’s lunar goals. […] China wants to build a base that would be physically on the Moon, rather than orbiting around it. Having the two most powerful countries competing for territorial, resource, and scientific dominance on Earth’s Moon will increase the chances of conflict—especially because this jousting will take place in a relatively lawless environment. – Hudson Institute
Chinese investment: State-owned enterprises stop globalizing, for the moment
Read Online Printable Copy    
KEY POINTS
  • Chinese investment around the world fell sharply in 2018. The decline was most evident later in the year and among state-owned enterprises. These companies also engaged in fewer power construction projects.

  • The number of countries in the Belt and Road Initiative keeps expanding, but activity levels per country are flat. One explanation for weakness in various Chinese efforts to “Go Out” is caution in drawing down foreign exchange reserves.

  • The US has restricted Chinese investment, but it was already small in size in 2018. Serious problems remain—for example, theft and coercive transfer of technology. Firms violating American law should face sanctions, not just investment bans.
Read this publication online. 
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View a printable copy. 
China Global Investment Tracker
Derek Scissors | AEI and the Heritage Foundation | January 2019 update

How to evaluate China’s economy
Derek Scissors | AEI | January 3, 2019

China’s global investment: Neither the US nor Belt and Road
Author | AEI | July 11, 2018

Be wary of spending on the Belt and Road
Cecilia Joy-Perez and Derek Scissors | AEI | November 14, 2018

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RUSSIA BUYS QUARTER OF WORLD'S YUAN RESERVES WHILE CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL GROWTH GOES NEGATIVE

1/12/2019

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BLOOMBERG
FORBES
China’s worse-than-expected trade data don’t tell whole story
China will ‘face development challenges’ amid downturn
AEI’s Derek Scissors and Daniel Blumenthal: China is a dangerous rival, and America should treat it like one 
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WHY CHINA CANNOT BECOME A MODERN COUNTRY

1/8/2019

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Why China Clings to State Capitalism
Robert Samuelson, Washington Post
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CHINESE WORKER SOLIDARITY DOSEN'T EXIST

1/8/2019

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WHY SANCTIONS REMAIN US ONLY OPTION AGAINST CHINA

1/8/2019

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HOW THE US ECONOMY REMAINS INDEPENDENT, DESPITE GLOBALIZATION

1/8/2019

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HOW TO EVALUATE THE CHINESE ECONOMY & WHAT STRUCTURES PRESIDENT XI JINPING'S MINDSET

1/4/2019

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AEI, DERECK SCISSORS 
chinas-economy.pdf
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Anne Stevenson-Yang writes: In this way, China lost the support of foreign businesspeople, who have become disillusioned with the market, tired of the pollution, and now fear for their physical safety. (The detention of three Canadians in retaliation for the Huawei arrest looks like pure thuggery.) Initially, it was startling and encouraging that a U.S. administration was finally willing to call China’s bluff. – Bloomberg 
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Reihan Salam writes: Trump ought to play against type by championing the interests of ordinary Chinese workers. That would pressure the Chinese party-state right where it is most vulnerable—and drive home the point that our quarrel is not with the Chinese people, but with the Chinese party-state. – The Atlantic
US-China Relations At 40
by Elizabeth Economy via The Diplomat
2019 should be a year of celebration; it marks 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China. Bilateral trade and investment between the two countries has grown exponentially from $5 billion in 1980 to $710 billion in 2017; student exchange and tourism numbers have soared; and peace has been maintained in the Asia-Pacific.
Derek Scissors’ new report is not a report on how China’s economy is doing. It is a more complex report on how to determine how China’s economy is doing. China manipulates its data and figures, making it difficult to accurately evaluate its economy. However, by examining 15 major indicators for importance and reliability, Scissorsexplains that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita should be deemphasized and that the most valuable indicators are the worst measured. Learn more here. 

Why are the United States and its allies so consistently surprised, wrong-footed, and reactive in the ongoing confrontation over nuclear weapons with North Korea? In a National Interest op-ed, Nick Eberstadt outlines two unpleasant but inescapable reasons. First, the “North Korean nuclear crisis” is a drama set directed by Pyongyang. Second, North Korean leadership clearly has a strategy, while the great powers just as clearly do not. If the US wants a sense of where the “nuclear crisis” is heading next year, it needs a sense of where North Korean strategy will be taking it.  Finish here. 
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Xi Jinping Thinks China Is World's Only Sovereign State
by Gordon G. Chang
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CHINA EASES CAPITAL CONTROLS

1/3/2019

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China tweaks capital controls as policy makers walk tightrope
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Central bank looks to balance looser monetary policy and stable yuan
How did the US become the global superpower?
Central bank to relax reserve ratio criteria to enhance lending
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
The central bank says this will help expand coverage of its preferential policies and guide banks to better meet the credit demand of small firms
 
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CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL PROFIT CRASHES

12/29/2018

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FORBES
SCMP:  BEIJING TAXED TO DEATH
CHINA PROMISES TAX RELIEF
Martin Feldstein writes: It is unlikely that China will make enough policy changes in the next three months to satisfy the U.S. and avoid the tariffs. Looking ahead, the U.S. could impose heavier tariffs and other economic penalties in order to force China to play by the rules, ending its attempt to dominate global markets through subsidies and technology theft. – Wall Street Journal
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Hilton Yip writes: For the ruling Chinese Communist Party, this sense of victimhood provides numerous benefits. It shifts the blame onto foreigners, mainly the West, for many of China’s problems and focuses domestic anger and scrutiny away from the party. There is never a need to take responsibility and be accountable for your own actions if you can stoke historical grievances like the “century of humiliation.” […]It is time that the West stopped taking China’s victimhood claims at face value. – Foreign Policy
Deeper, Underlying Tensions Exposed In Sino-US Ties
mentioning Hoover Institution via South China Morning Post
Without careful management it is a relationship that could get worse before it gets better and do nothing to enhance regional and global stability.
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CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE

12/28/2018

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FOREX LIVE:  PRUDENT MONETARY POLICY REGIME EXPECTED 
MONEY CONTROL:  MONETARY POLICY FOR CHINA
China’s central bank rules out ‘flood-like’ wave of stimulus
BY GORDON WATTS
PBOC adviser points to ‘prudent’ monetary approach after a raft of measures are proposed to boost the economy amid global market jitters
 
Don’t break the 3% deficit-to-GDP ceiling, analyst warns
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
There are other policy tools that could strengthen a proactive fiscal policy, including increasing spending, issuing more debt and reducing taxes, says expert
 
PBOC vows to stabilize yuan fluctuation at ‘reasonable level’
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Q4 meeting emphasized that monetary policy should be forward-looking, flexible and targeted, especially to strengthen countercyclical control
SCMP:   HOW FAR CAN CHINA GO TO STIMULATE ECONOMY
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MARTIN FEIDSTEIN REVEALS SIGNS TO WATCH FOR US RECESSION

12/23/2018

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Falling Share Prices and the Outlook for the US Economy
Martin Feldstein explains why the decline in household wealth implied by a more normal price-earnings ratio will mean recession.
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SLAVE LABOR OF THE MASTER HAN EMPIRE

12/21/2018

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Inside Xi Jinping's Plan To Dominate The World
featuring Elizabeth Economy via Bloomberg
Elizabeth Economy’s “The Third Revolution” makes the case that China is most dangerous in the realm of ideas.
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CHINESE REFORM HITS MIDLIFE CRISIS

12/21/2018

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China is Losing the New Cold War
Minxin Pei points out that the country is repeating two of the key mistakes that helped bring down the Soviet Union.
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China’s Economic Reforms Are Having a Midlife Crisis
Mark Gongloff, Bloomberg
Impact of 4 decades of China’s reforms and opening
All of our bets on China have been wrong
PBOC decides to accelerate capital market reform
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Pledge to reduce administrative intervention in transactions, develop mid and long-term investors and unblock access for asset management products
The China Policy Debate
There is growing consensus that the United States is engaged in a long-term, intensifying competition with China. It's less clear what type of relationship Washington should pursue with Beijing. RAND experts say that both competition and engagement are essential to future China policy. But there is only so much the United States can—or should—do to prevent China from becoming its peer. Read more »
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CHINA TALKS OF OPENING UP WHILE PRIVATE SECTOR SHRINKS

12/18/2018

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  US-China Relations at 40
(The Diplomat) The “normalization of relations” meets the “new normal.” 
Xi Jinping isn’t China’s new Deng Xiaoping
Politburo eyes accelerating reform and opening up
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to stimulate the vitality of small enterprises, improve macro-control and upgrade economic structure
Nation should come first in monetary policy: PBOC
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
Official says central bank must pay more attention to the spread of risk between different markets, such as bonds, stock markets and the foreign exchange
Private fears about China’s private sector
BY GORDON WATTS
An influential report shows the country’s private sector is shrinking for the first time in two decades as calls for accelerating reform gather pace
​In crippling the World Trade Organization, the US disarms weapons against Chinese high-tech protectionism
Claude Barfield | AEIdeas 
If the Trump administration does not soon advance its ideas for updates, the World Trade Organization's (WTO) legal system will grind to a halt, and China’s violations of its WTO obligations may go unpunished.
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INFLATION IN IRAN

12/7/2018

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FDD
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WHAT THE HAN MASTERS WANT:  A WEAK, AMELIORATED UNITED STATES

12/7/2018

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JOHN B. TAYLOR FROM HOOVER INSTITUTION TACKLES CHINA, TARIFFS & US TRADE DEFICITS

12/6/2018

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Taylor On China And Trade And Ideas 
by John H. Cochrane via Grumpy Economist
Tim Taylor, also reviewing Summers on China, makes a few excellent points. Growth comes from within. Trade is not conquest.
John Cochrane On The John Batchelor Show
interview with John H. Cochrane via The John Batchelor Show
Hoover Institution fellow John Cochrane discusses his Hill article "Trump should send China flowers, not tariffs."
Ralph Gomory writes: If China’s President Xi is serious about ending conflict with the United States, he should end the actions his country is taking that destroy our industrial capabilities. If President Trump is serious about rebuilding our capabilities he should act to keep our companies from offshoring to China and incent them to consider the welfare of our country. Tariffs on goods from China are being considered and they should be. – The Hill
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AFTER THE G20:  US OFFICIAL POLICY MUST BE TOTAL DISENGAGEMENT WITH CHINA, HERE'S HOW TO MANAGE CHINA'S RISE AND FALL

12/4/2018

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It’s still unclear what the US-China trade war is really all about   
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
The G20 economies: Managing China’s rise — and eventual fall
Clay R. Fuller | AEIdeas 
China has captured an increasing share of G20 economic output, but its day of reckoning will come. The US needs to be prepared for when “Xi Jinping Thought” becomes “Xi Jinping Panic.”
The Deal Trump Should Strike With Xi
Geoffrey Garrett

Trump's Trade War Escalates
Allison Carnegie

How China’s Middle Class Views the Trade War
Cheng Li
 A new era of competition and warning of the consequences of a “new Cold War.” In Beijing, Xi has adopted a more activist foreign policy; in Washington, there is heated debate about the merits of the long-standing U.S. approach to engaging China and whether U.S. and Chinese interests are fundamentally incompatible.
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OFFICIAL US POLICY WITH CHINA:  TOTAL DISENGAGEMENT, TAIWAN & WHY US CHINA RELATIONS TALK PAST EACH OTHER

11/29/2018

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The Dilemmas of Competing with Xi Jinping’s China   by Peter Mattis​
NATIONAL INTEREST
The commander of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific said China’s “pernicious approach” to its Belt and Road initiative and increased militarization of the South China Sea is heightening tensions between the world’s two biggest economies. – Bloomberg

For the near-term future of the global economy, which is already running into serious headwinds due to a year of rising trade tensions, the biggest question is whether Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will call a truce or double down on their trade war. – Foreign Policy
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Editorial: As they contend with Mr. Trump now, Chinese policymakers must understand that he won the presidency in large part because of American dismay — especially in the industrial heartland — with the results of China’s behavior, and what the public perceived as a failure of U.S. leadership to check it. For his part, Mr. Trump should understand that he has a mandate for a smart course correction, not an aimless, blunt-force exercise in “America First.” – Washington Post
China and the U.S. are on the brink of a new Cold War, with tensions over trade at the top of the agenda. […]That the two countries arrived at this point, despite years of tension, wasn’t inevitable. Rather, it played out this year in the corridors of power in Washington and Beijing, with both maneuvering—and often miscalculating. – Wall Street Journal
An Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer and a Henry Kaiser-class fleet replenishment oiler sailed through the Taiwan Strait Wednesday, in what the Navy called a routine transit. – USNI News
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A new study highlights China’s growing air power, and warns that China is looking to build out its Air Force to the point that the U.S. would not be willing to take it on in direct conflict. The Project Air Force team at Rand Corp. describes an emerging Chinese air force that aims to rival the United States’ own, both technologically and strategically, often by mirroring U.S. military capabilities and doctrine. – Air Force Times
Robert J. Samuelson writes: As for the Chinese, they may think they can satisfy Trump by promising to buy more American exports. But U.S. grievances with China go much deeper. Foreign firms — including American — find it hard to compete in China and say they’re targets of discriminatory rules and investment practices. […]If so, the trade war may become a permanent fixture of the global economy. – Washington Post
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James Leibold writes: It is the regime’s fundamental insecurity — the fear of rebellion and eventually China’s dismemberment — that drives it deeper and deeper into the private lives of its citizens, only alienating them. The repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang is just the extreme manifestation of the C.C.P.’s virulent — and unsustainable — pursuit of total control. – New York Times
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CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK MIMICS US FED & HOW XI JINPING IS THE NEW MAO

11/29/2018

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China’s Central Bank Becoming More Like the Fed
Daniel Moss, Bloomberg
The Dilemmas Of Competing With Xi Jinping's China
quoting Elizabeth Economy via War on the Rocks 
Last year in October, President Xi Jinping strutted to the podium at the Chinese Communist Party’s 19th Party Congress to read his work report. For more than three hours, Xi forced his colleagues to sit and listen in one of the most ostentatious displays of that infamous Chinese phrase, “you listen, I speak,” to which anyone has ever been subjected. More than any other event of the last six years, the 19th Party Congress pressed home Xi’s influence on the Chinese party-state. His ideas were incorporated into the constitution. No obvious successor emerged, suggesting Xi would hold the reins of power indefinitely.
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WHO ARE THE APPEASERS OF RED CHINA & CHINA'S OWN DEBT TRAP

11/27/2018

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FORBES
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MIKE PENCE AT APEC WAS THE REAL BATTLE BETWEEN BEIING, WASHINGTON & THE ART OF DECODING CHINA'S PEOPLE'S DAILY

11/27/2018

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The APEC summit: A turning point?
Claude Barfield | AEIdeas 
As a window to the future, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum may be more consequential than whatever takes place next week at the G20.
Sinology 2.0: Decoding China’s People’s Daily
Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan | AEIdeas 
Researchers have employed modern-day text analysis and machine learning to decipher the People’s Daily, which has published nearly two million articles spanning more than seven decades. With these techniques, the process of “china-watching” is more of a science and less of an art.
An Agenda for Resolving the US-China Conflict
Stephen Roach urges both countries' leaders to focus on four issues when they meet at the upcoming G20 summit.
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THE ASIAN DEBT TRAP:  ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK REVEALS LEDGER

11/27/2018

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Asian Development Bank signals bond siege
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HOW IMF HITS PAKISTAN FOR DEBT RELIEF & WHAT'S THE STATUS OF CHINA'S TECH SECTOR

11/26/2018

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IMF links Pakistan bailout talks to financial blacklist
BY F.M. SHAKIL
Pakistan’s hopes of getting a $6 billion lifeline may hinge on how it responds to demands for a crackdown on money laundering, terror funding and financial details of its deals with China
 China’s tech giants are looking weaker than ever
(Bloomberg) The startup phase is long gone. It’s time they show some financial maturity. 
 
Pakistan rupee plunges after govt cuts support amid bailout talk
BY KUNWAR KHULDUNE SHAHID
Drop in value comes amid a potential IMF bailout that Islamabad is seeking to address its balance of payments crisis
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XI VS. TRUMP:  XI IS LOSING

11/23/2018

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Hard Power, Soft Power and the Stickiness of Kowtow Diplomacy
By Richard Herr, The Strategist (ASPI): " ... there’s an argument that Xi’s soft-power playbook doesn’t have the same roles or objectives as those in the Nye playbook.
Hal Brands writes: The basic message of Pence’s speech was that the region will find a better friend in a democratic America than a dictatorial China. And that message is not simply spin or propaganda. It reflects the fact that in today’s geopolitical competitions, a democratic superpower has advantages its authoritarian rivals will find hard to match. – Bloomberg
Ishaan Tharoor writes: For President Xi Jinping, the APEC summit was supposed to highlight China’s friendly face to the world. Instead, he faced off against Vice President Pence, who used the forum to decry China’s global development projects as “opaque” schemes that saddle weaker countries with “staggering debt.” The United States launched a rival infrastructure initiative, backed by Australia, New Zealand and Japan. […]The showdown illustrated a deepening political reality in Asia: Many countries are far more wary of an increasingly assertive China than the United States, the old guarantor of security in the Pacific. – Washington Post
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Daniel Moss writes: The collapse of a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders last weekend in Papua New Guinea isn’t the end of the world. In fact economic relations between the 21 nations won’t change much. Most need both China and the U.S. — and that’s what they will continue to get. – Bloomberg
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    US-CHINA TRADE WAR EXAMINED
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    TRADE WAR DIARIES
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    CROSS BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS
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    THE CHINA DIGEST
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    WHAT WILL INDIA LOOK LIKE IN 2025
    U.S. Needs Steady, Strategic Central Bank.wsj.pdf
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