MONETARY REGIMES - CounterStrikeMedia

TRUMP'S CHINA POLICY: ECONOMIC DISENGAGEMENT, WHY CHINA WON'T FOLD FOR TRUMP; EXAMINING CHINA'S HIGH SAVINGS RATE & THE FUTURE OF US-CHINA RELATIONS

3/14/2019

The High Costs of the New Cold War
By Minxin Pei, The Strategist (ASPI): “It’s convenient to call the escalating geopolitical contest between the United States and China a ‘new cold war’. But that description should not be allowed to obscure the obvious, though not yet sufficiently understood, reality that this new competition will differ radically from the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union."

Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan write: The slowdown of China’s economic growth has little to do with the trade war. It’s a consequence of China’s development model that took shape during Former President Hu Jintao’s administration. The structural issues on which America is demanding change are essential components of this model, and there’s no sign that China will deviate from it anytime soon. We make these claims not as China watchers—although we are—but as developers of a machine learning algorithm that’s able to analyze the Chinese government’s agenda and predict its future direction. – The China Business Review

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Will China fold on structural issues? An algorithm says not any time soon.
Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan | China Business Review

SELLING CHINA SHORT: PROJECT SYNDICATE

China’s Still-Too-High Savings Makes China 2025 a Bigger Global Risk

Testimony: The future of the US-China relationship
Oriana Skylar Mastro | Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
If Washington is unwilling to stand up to China as the most powerful nation in the world, it cannot expect anyone else to do so.

BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN ASIA TIMES, CHINESE FINANCIALS SOAR

CHINA GOES NUCLEAR

US TRADE DEFICIT SOARS WHILE UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS, ITS ALL ABOUT CAPITAL FLOWS; AND WHY CHINA'S CURRENT ROUGH SPOT IS PERMANENT

3/8/2019

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THE SIZE OF THE CHINESE ECONOMY

Can the Chinese dream ever be realized? A long-read Q&A with George Magnus
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

FORBES: CHINA DITCHES US LED ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM FOR TRADE WAR

The Wall Street Journal: Trade deficit freak out, no need to panic
Mark J. Perry | AEIdeas

ASIA TIMES

ASIA TIMES

CHINA WANTS TO KEEP A YUAN PEG TO DOLLAR

China's Quiet Central Banking Revolution
Miao Yanliang welcomes the Chinese central bank's more open communication and increasingly flexible exchange-rate regime.

At stake is China’s avowed goal of establishing itself as a global superpower with influence over a network of allies to balance U.S. influence. China is pouring billions into global efforts such as Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative to forge stronger links with countries around the world. But China’s increasingly strident diplomatic approach could do more harm than good. – Bloomberg

CHINESE CURRENCY REGIME IS.....WELL.......COMPLICATED; A LOOK AT MANAGED TRADE WITH CHINA & BEIJING STEMS ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

3/6/2019

CHANNEL NEWS ASIA

CHINA'S ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING

CHINA FACES TOUGH ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

CHINA'S DOMESTIC ECONOMIC CHALLENGES GROWING

STATUS OF LIBERALIZATION OF CHINA'S ECONOMY

MANAGED TRADE: COUNCIL FOREIGN RELATIONS

Nathaniel Taplin writes: Beijing and President Trump appear near to a trade deal: China buys a lot more U.S. stuff, gives some ground on auto-industry protections and intellectual property, and mostly ignores other U.S. complaints. What would that mean in practice? Mainly, a boost to already-competitive U.S. industries like natural gas, agriculture and autos—and a big hit to other major exporting nations. – Wall Street Journal

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s testimony to House Ways and Means last week indicated that the US would give China yet another pass. Any US-China deal is only worthwhile with strong enforcement. And this is even truer for President Trump. Find out why here.

The US-China economic relationship: A comprehensive approach
Neena Shenai | Joshua P. Meltzer
The US-China economic relationship has reached a critical juncture. Over the past year, the US has imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, and China has retaliated with similar tariffs. In a joint AEI-Brookings Institution policy brief, authors Neena Shenai and Joshua Meltzer argue that the US should work with China to find a long-term solution for a trade deal. Shenai and Meltzer propose a deal that addresses the issues at hand in a free-market manner and strengthens the multilateral global trading system and rule of law that the US has championed in the post–World War II era. Read the full report here and related products here.

ASIA TIMES: 1 COUNTRY, 2 SYSTEMS, MULTIPLE TWEAKS

ASIA TIMES: THE NATURE OF CHINA'S STIMULUS FOR GLOBAL ECONOMY

FIXING THE CHINESE CURRENCY PEG & CAN BEIJING AND D.C. FIX A TRADE WAR TOWARD ACCOMMODATION? FINALLY, A COMPREHENSIVE POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR US CHINA RELATIONS

2/28/2019

PROJECT SYNDICATE

Tom Rogan writes: China’s regime knows it is caught between a rock of authoritarian necessity and a hard place of its own foreign policy. Put simply, Xi knows his power model requires both authoritarianism at home and seizure of market access abroad, but the two are coming into conflict in the eyes of democratic nations, and Xi finds himself stuck. Again, he cannot alter China’s political identity without sacrificing the Communist Party’s total domestic power, but neither can he give up on the means of his ambition for global hegemony: stealing and securing unfair market domination and militarizing the Indo-Pacific. – Washington Examiner

The US-China economic relationship: A comprehensive approach
Neena Shenai and Joshua P. Meltzer | The Brookings Institution
The US-China economic relationship has reached a critical juncture. The US should work with China to agree on long-term solutions for a trade deal that addresses the real issues at hand in a free-market manner and strengthens the multilateral global trading system and rule of law that the US has championed in the post–World War II era.

New Jaw-Jaw: The Geo-Economic Challenge of China’s Belt and Road Initiative by Nadège Rolland and Brad Carson

CHINA, NORTH KOREA & GEO-STATECRAFT

2/27/2019

THE DECOUPLING IS ON: US SEEKS TO LEAVE CHINA

2/21/2019

China trade: The US fails on enforcement, again
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
If President Trump wants to say his (eventual) deal solves the ugly problems he rightly pointed out in 2015–16, it will need much stronger enforcement than meeting after meeting and a chance of proportional action.

The Militarization of Xi Jinping's China
"Recovering" Areas They Never Have Ruled by Gordon G. Chang

BLOOMBERG LOOKS AT THE YUAN

THE FUTURE OF US CHINA RELATIONS

A currency straitjacket for China
Desmond Lachman | InsideSources
In slapping import tariffs on China and attempting to force China into a currency straitjacket, the Trump administration seems to be overlooking that China is the world’s second-largest economy and has for many years now been the world’s major engine of economic growth.

REFORMING THE MIDDLE KINGDOM OR A GLOBAL CHINA: THE CHALLENGE FOR TEAM TRUMP

2/17/2019

The Middle Kingdom Is Dead; Long Live A Global China
By Dickson Yeo
It’s one of the fundamental questions about China and its future place in the world: does the great civilization still view the world through the traditional lens of the Middle Kingdom or does the world face a new China, unbound by many of the structures under…

REFORMING THE MIDDLE KINGDOM: INTEREST RATES & THE PRIVATE SECTO BYASIA TIMES STAFF

China’s intellectual property approach continues to mature
Michael Rosen | AEIdeas
While serious issues remain, innovators in China and around the globe should applaud significant recent steps forward as a sign of the maturity of the Chinese approach to intellectual property.

China’s Growing Military Presence Abroad Brings New Challenges
By Harriet Moynihan & Dr. Wim Muller, Chatham House: “China's involvement in UN peacekeeping contributions has been on the rise for some time. China is also stepping up its own military and security operations abroad to protect its commercial and strategic interests, particularly in Africa. In doing so, China is exposing itself to a more complex set of issues – including international legal issues – with which it is only just starting to grapple."

THE STATE OF US-CHINA TRADE TALKS: POSTURING, PLEADING & PROMISES

2/3/2019

CHINA'S SLOW DOWN & THE WORLD ECONOMY

Don’t hand China the economic crown just yet
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
China is hardly the first country that the US has feared might economically eclipse it. In the 1960s, it was a rising Russian economy that the US feared might outpace it. Then, in the 1980s, it was the Japanese economic miracle that caused the US to shudder.

XI & TRUMP CONTINUE TALKS W/ TOUGH CHOICES

The unpredictable rise of China
Daniel Blumenthal | The Atlantic
Beijing has viewed the US as its chief geopolitical rival, yet official Washington has only recently awakened to this strategic competition. But as American observers start to see China’s ambitions more clearly, they have also misdiagnosed the challenges they pose.

Hudson’s Nate Sibley: How to fight China's financial abuses: Crack down on anonymous companies

WHO WRECKED THE CHINESE MIRACLE? & THE CURIOUS LACK OF DEFAULTS IN CHINA BY HARVARD'S CARMEN REINHART

2/3/2019

The Unpredictable Rise of China
// Daniel Blumenthal
Xi Jinping seeks national rejuvenation, but his nation's mounting power masks increased instability.

The curious case of missing defaults
Carmen M. Reinhart | AEI Economics Working Paper Series
An important new dimension in the latest global capital flow cycle is the surge in Chinese loans to developing countries, notably low-income commodity producers. A driver of China’s overseas lending boom is its larger global footprint, which helped stabilize global trade.

RUSSIANS FLY GOLD OUT OF THE CAUCASUS: PUTIN'S DESPERATION CONTINUES WITH SANCTIONS, A FAILED OLIGARCHY CONTINUES

2/3/2019

CHINA WILL NOT TALK REGIME CHANGE, SO IT OFFERS DEEP CONCESSIONS ABOUT US TRADE DEFICIT

1/30/2019

There Is No Sino-American Trade War
by Martin Feldstein via Hoover Daily ReportChinese negotiators recently offered to buy enough American products to reduce the bilateral trade deficit to zero by 2024. Why, then, have US negotiators rejected that as a way to end the dispute?

Elizabeth Economy: The Third Revolution: Xi JinPing and the New Chinese State
via Hoover Daily ReportHoover Institution fellow Elizabeth Economy discusses her book The Third Revolution: Xi JinPing and the New Chinese State.

Don’t hand China the economic crown just yet
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
China is hardly the first country that the US has feared might economically eclipse it. In the 1960s, it was a rising Russian economy that the US feared might outpace it. Then, in the 1980s, it was the Japanese economic miracle that caused the US to shudder.

XI JINPING WARNS THE PARTY: THE CRISIS IS PERMANENT

1/25/2019

THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE

VAST POLICE STATE CALLED ONE BELT ONE ROAD

CHINA HERITAGE: CHINA'S COMMUNIST, SOCIALIST DREAM FALTERING

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST: HOW CHINA'S POLITICAL LEADERSHIP MISREAD TRUMP

SINOLOGY: ANDY ROTHMAN, HAS THE END ARRIVED FOR CHINA?

Xi sells ‘One China’ dreams to the wrong country
Michael Mazza | The National Interes

TURKISH CURRENT ACCOUNT & ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN VULNERABLE

1/25/2019

CFR

Economic woes set to seal fate of Turkey’s local polls
Public opinion polls show that economic problems have climbed to the top of the Turkish public’s concerns and electoral support for the ruling party is on the decline ahead of municipal elections in March.

Erdogan’s Eyes on Turkey’s Largest Private Bank

Why Turkey’s export rise is hard to sustain
A heavy reliance on imported inputs to manufacture goods for export casts a shadow on Turkey’s hype about headway in foreign trade.

ORIANA SKYLAR MAESTRO REVEALS CHINA'S GLOBAL AMBTIONS & THE ECONOMIC BRAINS LEADING CHINA'S REBALANCING

1/24/2019

China cannot afford debt traps
Cecilia Joy-Perez | CQ Researcher

China’s strategy to gain power in Asia
Oriana Skylar Mastro | AEI video

Antagonistic Competition Marks U.S.-China Relations 40 Years After Normalization
by Michael R. Auslin via National Review
Amid the tumult of America’s domestic politics, the 40th anniversary of the normalization of Sino–U.S. relations passed almost unnoticed on January 1, commemorated only in subdued comments from Washington and Beijing. The relationship, once heralded by leaders in both countries as the world’s most important, is currently in flux.

CAIXIN: CHINA'S FINANCIAL NEWSITE

CHINA'S CONFUSING NATIONAL POLICY ABOUT STIMULUS & HOW US SHOULD COUNTER BEIJING'S GLOBAL AMBITIONS

1/24/2019

Rising costs of China’s stimulus addiction
BY WILLIAM PESEK
As President Xi Jinping turns Beijing’s stimulus-industrial complex up to 11, 'Minsky moment' risks only increase

Opposing China's Dangerous Ambitions

Rising costs of China’s stimulus addiction
(Asia Times) Suddenly, this president for life thing is looking less like a win for Xi Jinping as China loses altitude. Last year, he won the Communist Party’s approval to stay on indefinitely – all part of his plan to out-reform Deng Xiaoping.

More Bad News For China
by Michael R. Auslin via National Review
The Wall Street Journal reports that China’s economy is growing at its slowest rate since 1990 — and that those are the official figures, which, as the article notes, are viewed increasingly skeptically by economists. Of course, the official 6.6 percent growth rate would be the envy of all developed countries, but for China, it’s a continuation of a slowdown that underscores the major challenges facing the Chinese Communist Party and government in the next decade. As I argued in my book, The End of the Asian Century, decades of sweeping problems under the rug have caught up with China.

TRUMP, CHINA, THE TRADE DEFICIT & THE IMPACT OF THE IMMINENT COLLAPSE OF CHINA ON ITS SECURITY AND MARITIME POLICY

1/23/2019

A US-China deal will do nothing to shrink our trade deficit
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

More Bad News for China
By Michael Auslin, National Review: “This worsening slowdown, which is the new normal for China, may have major effects on Beijing’s foreign and security policy.”

Xi Jinping and China's Maritime Policy
By Andrew Chubb, Brookings: "The ascension of Xi Jinping to the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has often been posited as a turning point for China's policy in the South and East China Sea maritime disputes. As early as 2013, You Ji of the University of New South Wales assessed that Xi had been “instrumental in changing China's passivity” into an assertive strategy to defend China's claims."

Ex-RBI Governor Rajan Says U.S-China Dispute Far Bigger Than Trade
interview with Raghuram Rajan via Bloomberg
Hoover Institution fellow Raghuram Rajan discusses the US-China trade dispute, Federal Reserve policy, global economic risks, and the state of India's economy.

BROOKINGS EXAMINES IF CAN CHINA DEVELOP AN EVOLUTIONARY POLITICAL ECONOMY?

1/22/2019

BROOKINGS

What Next For China's Development Model?
by Michael Spence via Project Syndicate
Even if China maintains its market-oriented reform momentum, tensions with the West are unlikely to be resolved quickly. While steps can be taken to reduce these tensions, they cannot be easily eliminated, which means that they will probably be a key factor shaping the future of China’s development model.

Gary J. Schmitt writes: Although changes in American and Chinese leadership have brought current tensions between the two nations to the fore, the underlying reasons for the tensions are not tied to either President Donald Trump or President Xi Jinping coming into office. […] The administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy is a relatively coherent response to the challenge China poses. But questions remain about the administration’s ability to resource it sufficiently and carry it out steadily given President Trump’s own idiosyncratic America First policy views. – American Enterprise Institute

CHATHAM HOUSE UK EXAMINES IF US MONETARY POLICY TAMED CHINA & FORBES, NYT EXAMINE US-CHINA POLICY WITH EDWARD PRASAD

1/18/2019

FORBES
NYT

NYT: EDWARD PRASAD

How US Monetary Policy Tamed Chinese Foreign Policy
Higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar have played a role in curbing China's self-confidence, writes David Lubin. Read the expert comment >

The Unexplored Territory of Booming Global Debt
Robert Samuelson, Washington Post

Big is beautiful but not for China’s ‘walking dead’
BY GORDON WATTS
State-owned enterprises post record profits as Beijing again announces plans to tackle prowling ‘zombies’

CHINA'S RECESSION ISN'T AMERICA'S GAIN & THE PUSHBACK AGAINST CHINA HAS BEGUN

1/15/2019

China’s next policy change: Not what President Trump hopes for
Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan | AEIdeas

Who lost China (again)? A long-read Q&A with Zack Cooper
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

Dan Blumenthal and Derek Scissors write: The administration has demonstrated some good instincts on China, but it must not be distracted by the next round of Beijing’s false economic promises. Protecting innovation from Chinese attack makes the United States stronger. Hindering the Chinese security apparatus makes external aggression and internal repression more costly for Beijing. China is our only major trade partner that is also a strategic rival, and we should treat it differently from friendly countries with whom we have disputes. If Washington wants the global free market to work, it must intervene to blunt Beijing’s belligerence. – American Enterprise Institute

Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan writes: The upcoming visit to Washington by President Xi’s top aide Liu He will surely offer some clues as to how the trade talks will play out. But for those who think Mr. Liu will bring a major concession to the table, here’s our algorithm’s advice: Curb your enthusiasm. – American Enterprise Institute

Sean Kelly writes: There are more abstract considerations about the geostrategic consequences of China’s lunar goals. […] China wants to build a base that would be physically on the Moon, rather than orbiting around it. Having the two most powerful countries competing for territorial, resource, and scientific dominance on Earth’s Moon will increase the chances of conflict—especially because this jousting will take place in a relatively lawless environment. – Hudson Institute

Chinese investment: State-owned enterprises stop globalizing, for the moment
Read Online Printable Copy
KEY POINTS

Chinese investment around the world fell sharply in 2018. The decline was most evident later in the year and among state-owned enterprises. These companies also engaged in fewer power construction projects.
The number of countries in the Belt and Road Initiative keeps expanding, but activity levels per country are flat. One explanation for weakness in various Chinese efforts to “Go Out” is caution in drawing down foreign exchange reserves.
The US has restricted Chinese investment, but it was already small in size in 2018. Serious problems remain—for example, theft and coercive transfer of technology. Firms violating American law should face sanctions, not just investment bans.

Read this publication online.

View a printable copy.
China Global Investment Tracker
Derek Scissors | AEI and the Heritage Foundation | January 2019 update

How to evaluate China’s economy
Derek Scissors | AEI | January 3, 2019

China’s global investment: Neither the US nor Belt and Road
Author | AEI | July 11, 2018

Be wary of spending on the Belt and Road
Cecilia Joy-Perez and Derek Scissors | AEI | November 14, 2018

RUSSIA BUYS QUARTER OF WORLD'S YUAN RESERVES WHILE CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL GROWTH GOES NEGATIVE

1/12/2019

BLOOMBERG

FORBES

China’s worse-than-expected trade data don’t tell whole story

China will ‘face development challenges’ amid downturn

AEI’s Derek Scissors and Daniel Blumenthal: China is a dangerous rival, and America should treat it like one

WHY CHINA CANNOT BECOME A MODERN COUNTRY

1/8/2019

Why China Clings to State Capitalism
Robert Samuelson, Washington Post

CHINESE WORKER SOLIDARITY DOSEN'T EXIST & THE REIGN OF CHINESE SLAVE LABOR

1/8/2019

WHY SANCTIONS REMAIN US ONLY OPTION AGAINST CHINA

1/8/2019

HOW THE US ECONOMY REMAINS INDEPENDENT, DESPITE GLOBALIZATION

1/8/2019

HOW TO EVALUATE THE CHINESE ECONOMY & WHAT STRUCTURES PRESIDENT XI JINPING'S MINDSET

1/4/2019

AEI, DERECK SCISSORS

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Anne Stevenson-Yang writes: In this way, China lost the support of foreign businesspeople, who have become disillusioned with the market, tired of the pollution, and now fear for their physical safety. (The detention of three Canadians in retaliation for the Huawei arrest looks like pure thuggery.) Initially, it was startling and encouraging that a U.S. administration was finally willing to call China’s bluff. – Bloomberg

Reihan Salam writes: Trump ought to play against type by championing the interests of ordinary Chinese workers. That would pressure the Chinese party-state right where it is most vulnerable—and drive home the point that our quarrel is not with the Chinese people, but with the Chinese party-state. – The Atlantic

US-China Relations At 40
by Elizabeth Economy via The Diplomat
2019 should be a year of celebration; it marks 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China. Bilateral trade and investment between the two countries has grown exponentially from $5 billion in 1980 to $710 billion in 2017; student exchange and tourism numbers have soared; and peace has been maintained in the Asia-Pacific.

Derek Scissors’ new report is not a report on how China’s economy is doing. It is a more complex report on how to determine how China’s economy is doing. China manipulates its data and figures, making it difficult to accurately evaluate its economy. However, by examining 15 major indicators for importance and reliability, Scissorsexplains that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita should be deemphasized and that the most valuable indicators are the worst measured. Learn more here.

Why are the United States and its allies so consistently surprised, wrong-footed, and reactive in the ongoing confrontation over nuclear weapons with North Korea? In a National Interest op-ed, Nick Eberstadt outlines two unpleasant but inescapable reasons. First, the “North Korean nuclear crisis” is a drama set directed by Pyongyang. Second, North Korean leadership clearly has a strategy, while the great powers just as clearly do not. If the US wants a sense of where the “nuclear crisis” is heading next year, it needs a sense of where North Korean strategy will be taking it. Finish here.

Xi Jinping Thinks China Is World's Only Sovereign State
by Gordon G. Chang

US-CHINA TRADE WAR EXAMINED

TRADE WAR DIARIES

CROSS BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS

THE CHINA DIGEST

WHAT WILL INDIA LOOK LIKE IN 2025

U.S. Needs Steady, Strategic Central Bank.wsj.pdf
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The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking pdf
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What Uber Can Teach the Fed pdf
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Trump, Trade & Money.pdf
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