Trump Plays Long Game On China
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | August 8, 2019
China Is a Rival, Not an Enemy
By Bonnie Kristian, The Hill: "China has one-fifth of the planet's population; the world's second largest economy; a small but significant nuclear arsenal for deterrence; and an increasingly repressive government which combines elements of market economics with single-party totalitarianism, incredibly invasive surveillance, mass internment camps; and a newly minted “president for life,” Xi Jinping. Should it also be the recipient of Washington's antagonism?"
Unjustified China madness
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
CHINA'S WORST ECONOMY YET, WHY EVERY PRESIDENT SINCE REAGAN GOT CHINA WRONG & CHINA'S PUSHING DRUGS INTO USA
Every president since Reagan was wrong about China’s destiny
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
We are unlikely to meet the profound challenge China poses unless we first come to grips with what was tried, and what failed, before.
China has a master economic plan. Is it better than America’s?
James Pethokoukis | The National Interest
Sleepwalking toward a currency war?
Desmond Lachman | InsideSources
China tariffs, trade, and public opinion today
Karlyn Bowman | Forbes
Bond market madness wrought by the central banks
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas
Trump’s bad idea of dollar intervention
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
China will find it hard to cut fentanyl trade
Roger Bate | AEIdeas
Does China rule the Fortune 500?
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
China Global Investment Tracker
Derek Scissors | AEI and the Heritage Foundation
Chinese investment: State-owned enterprises stop globalizing, for the moment
Derek Scissors | AEI | January 17, 2019
The bond market and the stock market can’t both be right
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas
Considering that the bond market has been a better economic forecaster than the stock market, policymakers would be well-advised to pay attention to what the US and global government bond markets are trying to tell them.
The Global Trade War Comes Full Circle
Veronique de Rugy, Reason
When "Trade Wars" End Badly
by Gordon G. Chang via Strategika
“I think we’re going to be strategic partners,” said President Donald Trump on June 29 at his Osaka G-20 press conference, in response to a question from Olivia Qi Zhang, a reporter for Caixin, the Chinese news organization. “I think we can help each other. I think, in the end, we can—if the right deal is structured, we can be great for each other.”
China’s take on trade
Dan Blumenthal and Annie Kowalewski | AEIdeas
China Wins the Trade War
Howard Gold, MarketWatch
Chinese and US capital markets: For once, ‘leveling the playing field’ is not a protectionist cover
Claude Barfield | AEIdeas
Recently introduced legislation would force foreign companies to delist from American stock exchanges unless they come into compliance with US accounting practices within three years.
HOW TARIFFS HELP US Continue here.
More countries are joining the BRI in name, but the overall extent of activity is shrinking. Learn more here.
The ‘Xi Doctrine’: Proclaiming and Rationalizing China’s Aggression
By Bradley A. Thayer & Lianchao Han, The National Interest: "The United States must respond to China’s belligerence with greater strength, adamantine determination, and more vigorous diplomatic and military measures."
For most of the last six years, Xi Jinping has been largely free to define the terms of his rule. But with challenges piling up from the U.S. trade war to mass protests in Hong Kong, his presidency is increasingly being dictated by events. – Bloomberg
Salvatore Babones writes: Given Beijing’s bluster, it can be easy to forget that China is still a relatively poor country with a GDP per capita less than one-sixth the U.S. level. Compared to the America’s, China’s economy is relatively inefficient and undifferentiated, and its markets are poorly developed. The simple fact is that China needs the United States more than the United States needs China. In itself, that’s no reason to start a trade war. But if the trade war really does heat up, there’s little doubt who will win. – Foreign Policy
Since he took power seven years ago, President Xi Jinping has faced a growing din of foreign condemnation over his government’s human rights record, a trade war that has sapped China’s strength and now, for a second time, mass protests in the streets of Hong Kong. – New York Times
Xinjiang and the Belt and Road Initiative
By Rebecca Warren, Strategy Bridge: "Since Deng Xiaoping’s Reform and Opening-Up policies, China has modernised to a startling extent. However, this growth has been uneven and has caused severe inequality across the country. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is often seen as promoting China’s influence across the world, but this is not its only purpose."
Time For New Trade Tactics With China: Data Sheet
quoting Raghuram Rajan via Fortune
Eleven long months ago, at Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech conference in Aspen, Colo., New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman cogently explained how a rational, effective president of the United States would handle a trade dispute with China. He’d sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, bring European allies into the agreement, and then negotiate quietly with the Chinese in a way that would save them embarrassment.
Dean Cheng writes: Whether it was confidence due to his growing domestic strength, a belief that the balance of economic power in the U.S.-China relationship had already shifted, or a concern about appearing weak in front of Trump, Xi seems to have reached the conclusion that China, under his leadership, can successfully challenge the United States. This appears to have been a dangerous miscalculation. Xi may soon find that a perfect storm of agricultural problems, internal unhappiness, and his own chosen hard line on the trade war could undermine the domestic power he has worked so hard to consolidate. – War on the Rocks
HOW THE CHINESE COMMUNISTS ARE NOT PREPARED FOR A TRADE WAR & HOW THE TRADE WAR ENDS BY STEPHEN MOORE
Gerald F. Seib writes: American negotiators are trying to force the Chinese to make systemic changes in their system, particularly in the dominance of state-owned businesses and the ability of the government to extract technology and intellectual property from the business sector. But such components of the Chinese system no longer appear to be simply temporary structures as China matures, but rather pieces of the new model. – Wall Street Journal
Peter Morici writes: It is time to join the commercial cold war on China. The United States must fully implement the sanctions against Huawei and other technology pirates, implement a system of auction quotas that limit imports from China to the value of exports to China, and develop aggressive national strategies within advanced computing, space exploration, and artificial intelligence that ensure national survival. The real danger lies not from Beijing but rather in pressures from members of Congress who are not willing to accept higher prices for clothing and gadgets and lost farm exports and pass up the opportunity to make those an issue for 2020. – The Hill
Are We at Risk of a Chinese Dollar Dump?
Robert Samuelson, Washington Post
CHINA'S DOMESTIC BANKS GET BOND FUTURES FOR LIQUIDITY, DAVID P. GOLDMAN SPEAKS AT HERITAGE ABOUT CHINESE GRAND STRATEGY & THE SHAPE OF CHINA'S CURRENT ACCOUNT
What If the Trade War Is Deflationary?
Gary Shilling, Bloomberg
Karl W. Smith writes: When it comes to China, however, the president is doubling down. He has encouraged U.S. supply chains to move out of China and established subsidy programs to cushion farmers from the effects of a protracted trade war. Which leads to the long-term implications of this battle. A protracted trade war would almost guarantee a global realignment. Supply chains that run through both the U.S. and China would constantly be subject to disruptions, so global manufacturers would have to decide whether to pursue an America-centric or China-centric strategy. – Bloomberg
David Auerswald writes: China’s Arctic Policy puts forward an alternative governance narrative that plays to many Arctic countries’ focus on multilateralism in regional politics. In 2013, China agreed to abide by the jurisdictional rights of the Arctic states as a condition of being granted Arctic Council permanent observer status. That gave China a voice in Arctic Council working groups discussing issues like climate research, search and rescue coordination, and fisheries management. – War on the Rocks
Jon. B Alterman writes: China’s Middle East strategy, then, is not so much a single regional strategy as a portfolio of investments. China’s national ambitions in each country are narrowly focused on economic ties, and state-owned enterprises closely follow governmental priorities. The United States has seemingly comprehensive plans in almost every country but few resources, and a business community that follows profits wherever they can be found. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
In a Washington Post op-ed, Marc Thiessen explains that President Trump didn’t start the current trade war. China did. Beijing has been waging economic warfare on the US for years — stealing intellectual property, forcing American companies to transfer technology as a price of doing business in China, and subsidizing state-owned enterprises to prevent US businesses from competing in dozens of sectors of the Chinese economy. The difference now is that Chinese leaders are facing a president who is willing to fight back. Continue here.
Will the US and China ever reach a trade deal? Following the collapse of trade talks last week, Derek Scissors joined CNBC to explain that Trump’s tariff decision is tied to the timing of the G20 summit in June, where Trump will have the chance to talk to Xi Jinping. If the US were planning to pose these tariffs in the long term, the timing would be to allow American businesses to adjust. Instead, the timing is for the negotiations. Watch here.
Last week, Zack Cooper joined “The Mike Schikman Show” to discuss US-China relations. Cooper notes that despite the attention on the trade war, policymakers are also concerned with China’s security situation, human rights abuses, and projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative. China uses economic coercion to change the foreign policy decisions of states in Asia and increasingly much further abroad. Listen here.
Turkey grapples with big trade deficit with China
Amid Washington’s trade war on China, Ankara is also grumbling about a massive trade gap with Beijing, but a number of factors stand in Turkey's way to resolve the deficit.
Victor Davis Hanson: US-China Confrontation Will Define Global Order
via Hoover Daily Report
The United States is at a crossroads with an increasingly aggressive China, which could define America’s security and the international order for decades to come, Hoover scholar Victor Davis Hanson says.
Sharpening the US-China trade debate
China trade is being argued in strings of tweets and seven-minute (if you’re lucky) TV segments. As a result, no one gets it quite right. Derek Scissors gives corrections of four important missteps in the debate.
China has a master economic plan. Is it better than America’s?
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
Beyond the Tariff Debates
Claude Barfield, AEI
CHINA, A REGIONAL POWER WITH GLOBAL AMBITIONS DUMPS REFORM & HOW BEIJING HIRES THE SWAMP TO HIT TRUMP