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PAUL WOLFOWITZ:  THE CHINA THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN

6/5/2020

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The China that might have been
Paul Wolfowitz | AEIdeas
The Trump Administration Seeks a Balance With New China Strategy
​The government is attempting to determine where cooperation is warranted and conflict may be unavoidable.
Thomas Joscelyn 
China Isn't Letting A Pandemic Go To Waste
by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
No more nice-guy façade.
The U.S. Needs A New Grand Strategy For Asia
featuring Michael R. Auslin via National Review
Since World War II, more American soldiers have perished in East Asia than anywhere else. The twin imperatives of containing Communism and maintaining the regional balance of power drew U.S. forces into wars in Korea and Vietnam, with casualties far exceeding those of later conflicts in the Middle East.
China, unquarantined
Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Eberstadt | National Review
It was not by accident or happenstance that China became a major player in the world economy and, more broadly, in the liberal international order. That outcome, rather, is largely a result of concerted American policy.
Two weeks ago, the World Bank published new estimates putting China slightly ahead of the US in 2017 gross domestic product, adjusted for purchasing power parity. This is badly misleading, argues Derek Scissors in an AEIdeas blog post. While China may become a true peer of the US in economic size, it is not yet equal to the US and is headed for a growth wall.  Learn more here.
Eric B. Brown and Charles Horner write: The Party knows that the existence of compelling counter-models to it along the Sinophone periphery are a danger to its hold on power inside the People’s Republic itself. It is an historic gamble: Xi’s ongoing bid to subjugate Sinophone Asia to communist rule is threatening the very Asian peace and economic potential which made China’s emergence since 1978 possible in the first place. – Hudson Institute
Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, in re: Disorder across America, and foes: Russia and its subset Iran, and China.  Xi Jinping has launched against all his foes – India, the US, and presumably against Uyghurs.  Does China think it can knock out out the US?  Dunno; but they may have concluded that for their regime to survive thy have no choice but to try. Reminiscent of Hitler in 1939.  “Do you really want to die for Taiwan, Hong Kong, a Himalayan border spat?”   Biden has no credible position on China.  “If he’s elected, China will move on Taiwan” because he’s in no position politically to defend Taiwan.  His party is infected with Chinese ties.  “Rapprochement and appeasement.”  

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/06/coronavirus-pandemic-china-beijing-becoming-authentically-belligerent/#slide-
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THE TURKISH CENTRAL BANK LOSES CREDIBILITY

5/21/2020

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Why Erdogan Won’t Ask the IMF for Help
​Turkey's economy is a mess, but its president won't seek an IMF loan because the conditions would mean giving up his extensive patronage network.
​Turkey’s megaprojects threaten ‘mega’ financial havoc
 Turkey’s government might be forced to nationalize some megaproject investments, chief among them the new airport in Istanbul, which have hit dire straits under the combined impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Turkey’s existing economic woes.
Erdogan’s Fourth Attempt to Take Over Turkey’s Largest Private Bank
Aykan Erdemir
Ankara warns Hifter to lay off Turkish assets in Libya
Turkey has warned of grave consequences if Libyan warlord Khalifa Hifter acts on threats to attack Turkish assets in Libya, signaling a further potential escalation in the Libyan conflict. Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hami Aksoy said in a statement today that Turkey would see “the putschist elements as legitimate targets” if its interests came under attack.
The warning followed threats from Hifter’s air force chief Saqr al-Jaroushi, who said, “All Turkish positions and interests in all cities are legitimate targets for our air force jets and we call on all civilians to stay away from them.”
Read Full Article  
Qatar triples swap line with Turkey
 Qatar has offered support to Turkey’s central bank, expanding a currency-swap agreement to $15 billion as Ankara seeks to mitigate economic shocks from the coronavirus pandemic.
Justice Department Unveils Elaborate North Korean Sanctions Evasion Scheme
Mathew Ha | Research Analyst
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WHAT TEAM TRUMP GOT RIGHT ABOUT U.S. TRADE DEFICITS OVER 30 YEARS & china builds fortress in the african horn

5/15/2020

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China may be more vulnerable than we think. Read the interview here.
China’s Plans to Win Control of the Global Order
US DEBT COSTS TRILLIONS:  COVID BONDS
Five Points about U.S. Trade Over the Last Thirty Years
by Brad W. Setser
Cold War shadows creep across China’s political elite
Inside the rarified atmosphere of the Great Hall of the People, the aroma of disinfectant will mingle with a whiff of economic distress. A toxic mix before Premier Li Keqiang gives his annual state-of-the-union-style speech at the National People’s Congress in Beijing later this week. 
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The Irish Shock to U.S. Manufacturing?
by Brad W. Setser
The Left Is What It Once Loathed
by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness
What is the Left, then? Mostly a Jacobin party that operates ad hoc, without principle, or consistency. 
Are the Kurds the Next Kingmakers in Turkey?
By Burak Bekdil, May 11, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Between 1994 and 2015, the Kurdish vote in Turkey rose from 4.1% to 13.1% of the electorate. A greying Turkey is facing a baby boom in Kurdistan: the Kurdish fertility rate, at 3.41, is a demographic weapon against the Turkish fertility rate of 2.09. These numbers suggest that Kurds could be the kingmakers in Turkey’s presidential election in 2023.
Continue to full article ->
China builds a mega-fortress on the Horn of Africa
The Chinese Navy is busy building a string of overseas bases, and one of the largest is in Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa. The question is, why? Exactly who are they defending against? And why is it a modern-day “Fort Apache” walled fortress, featuring battlements similar to medieval castles, shooting ports and corner towers. Read More
​Lebanon’s Interwoven Fantasy Worlds All Lead to War With Israel
​How much should America pay to maintain the fraying fabric?
Syria: Israeli Official Says Iran Beginning Withdrawal in Syria.  Israel’s outgoing defense minister Natafli Bennett on Monday said Iran has begun withdrawing its forces from Syria.  “Iran is significantly reducing the scope of its forces in Syria and even evacuating a number of bases,” Bennett said.  Israel has carried out hundreds of air strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria in recent months, stretching Iran’s resources thin.  Bennett’s comments echo those of an U.S. envoy who said last week that Iran was reducing its forces in Syria.  Haaretz Reuters
Grand Strategy Is No Silver Bullet, But It Is Indispensable by Andrew Ehrhardt and Maeve Ryan

As Conflict Escalates in Libya, the Economy Veers Toward Crisis by Tim Eaton
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GREGORY COPLEY:  HOW U.S. MANAGES CHINA IN WAR

4/24/2020

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Coronavirus Could Revolutionize America's China Policy
By Emil Avdaliani, May 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Many argue that the coronavirus pandemic will ultimately benefit China more than the rest of the world, especially the US. After all, America is now the worst-hit country on earth in terms of human casualties. But the crisis could in fact help the US reorganize its geopolitical thinking toward the People’s Republic, resulting in a radical break in which Washington’s political and economic elites are newly unified against a rising Beijing.
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Foreign Shell Companies Trying to Infiltrate U.S. Defense Industry
By Richard Sisk, Military.com: "Without naming China, the Pentagon's acquisitions chief warned Thursday of foreign adversaries using shell companies to buy into struggling small defense firms during the coronavirus pandemic."
One concrete way to start decoupling with China
Gary J. Schmitt and Craig Kennedy | The American Interes
After the pandemic, America must again embrace creative, competitive capitalism
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
The China Rethink
China prospered while buying off greedy American elites. Now that alarm bells are ringing in Washington, who will answer the call?
  A contemporary woodcut depicts the Third Defenestration of Prague (1618), which marked the beginning of the Bohemian Revolt, and therefore of the first phase of the Thirty Years' War.

Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs, in re: The thirty-years' war between the US and China.  The virus is thought to have been developed in one of the Wuhan labs.  Is China winning? It's got a head start. If you make gains while our adversary is unaware, you have an advantage. This was an  unavoidable war for Xi Jinping, In October [2019], he announced that he’d begun: a [replica] of the original thirty-years war in Europe, which ended with the Peace of Westphalia redefining the entire power structure.

Xi said this new peace will overturn the rules-base world order from 1638 and replace it with control by Beijing, which will write the rules. Why did they embark now to become the global hegemon?  The PRC economy has been static since ten years ago and has declined for three.  If Xi allowed more freedom and enterprise, he’d lose control; therefore, he’s taken power from the private sector and augmented the state-owned enterprises, which have never contributed a nickel.  Must ensure that his competitors’s economies are destroyed. Massive hit to US, Europe, Australia, which have gone into enormous long-term debt to recover from the virus. China also put its factories back to work as quickly as possible so, when other nations start to recover, China can provide all the goods demanded and prevent the growth of local manufacturing.

Also, a strong move to separate Western allies from one another. We've seen this.  Europe is still reluctant to let go of the Chinese golden ring.  Europe still hopes to be bailed out by China.  China is trying to split the US from all its allies, then spilt all internal populations: the globalists from the nationalists.  It's doing a good job.

PRC intends to show itself as militarily strong and able to deploy force—but the last thing it wants is military confrontation with the US, which would be devastating to China.  China sends around the Liaoning to project power.
​Image:  The Thirty-Six Stratagems. 三十六計  Public domain.
       Chinese information operations and information warfare are based on concepts and terms similar to those used by the United States, but the Chinese have evolved them to be more suitable and relevant to Chinese culture and to the doctrine and policies of the Communist Party of China. While the People's Republic of China has adopted the idea of information dominance, its method for going about information dominance differs, using ancient methods such as the Thirty-Six Stratagems.
       The number thirty-six was used by Wáng as a figure of speech in this context, and is meant to denote numerous stratagems instead of any specific number. Wáng's choice of this term was in reference to the I Ching, where six is the number of Yin that shared many characteristics with the dark schemes involved in military strategy.

Tuesday 21 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block B:  Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs, in re:  China is boasting how it’s flying PPE to beleaguered nations, how an authoritarian state is so much better able to respond to a crisis than is a mere democracy. So far, we’re not responding brilliantly, but we're focussed on the debt. The key is to take this opportunity to simplify: reduce road blocks to starting businesses, and to eliminate bureaucratic requirement to existing businesses.  The laws on corp. bankruptcy have become stricter in the US, whereas one of the ways to keep capital moving is to dispense with unproductive businesses and let the capital go to startups. In Australia and Europe, this is [difficult]. Need to support serial entrepreneurship. 

The West needs to deny China what it needs most: food, and resources. If PRC threatens the US and its allies, or manipulate trade therefor, it's obligatory that the e US and allies do the same to it.  Failing that, it just prolongs the war and gives the advantage to the PRC.

The Quad:  US, Japan, an Australia can trust each other in the Quad talks. India isn't quite there.

Europe is under siege largely because of this transformed world.  To protect European borders and coastline from, e.g., Turkey, which is using population war by sending refugees to flood Europe, in numbers that the recipient nations can’t accommodate.

China thinks Pres Trump is starting to [respond to] the 30-yrs' war, so China is currently interfering in the US media to influence the November elections to a degree that no one has ever done before.
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EGYPT'S FOREIGN RESERVES FLOUNDERS & TURKISH ECONOMIC COLLAPSE PREVENTS TURNING ON S400; LOOKING AT US ECONOMY POST COVID

4/16/2020

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Turkey Shows the Value of Balance Sheet Analysis
by Brad W. Setser
Report: Private sectors in UAE, Egyptian, Saudi economies suffer dramatic losses
 IHS Markit, a global information provider, shows how the private sector has suffered major blows in the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Erdogan's cold war with Saudi Arabia and UAE
 Turkey's patience with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is running low, sources tell Al-Monitor.
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As foreign reserves dip, Egypt’s economy slows down
 Analysts study the sharp decline of Egypt’s foreign reserves due to the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic, with fears that the Egyptian pound would further weaken against the dollar.
Turkey’s S-400 delay is about more than just the economy and COVID-19
 Turkey’s deepening economic woes are widely seen as the prime reason behind its decision to delay the activation of the Russian S-400 systems. But an array of other factors have been at play that are forcing Ankara to think twice.
Emerging market risks to the economic recovery
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
  • “Eyes on the Other Global Crises” by Emily Estelle (Originally published in RealClearWorld)
  • “Salafi-Jihadi Ecosystem in the Sahel” and interactive graphic by Katherine Zimmerman
US BUDGET DEFICITS FOR COVID
Some Basic Economics of COVID-19 Policy
Casey Mulligan, Kevin Murphy, and Robert Topel, Chicago Booth Review
 
Borrower Beware: CARES Loans Carry a Steep Cost (subs.)
Paul Atkins, Wall Street Journal
 
Tax Complexity a Big Barrier to Economic Growth
Travis Nix, RealClearMarkets
 
Can Restaurants Survive?
Michael Brendan Dougherty, National Review

The States Are Toast
David Schleicher, Slate
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EXAMINING THE PACE OF US DECOUPLING FROM CHINA

4/14/2020

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From Non-Interference to Wolf Warrior: Chinese Foreign Internal Defense by Jimmy Zhang
Im-Politic: Evidence that Trump Would Be Foolish Not to “Run on China”
My response to the Asia Society’s joint statement on cooperation with China
Paul Wolfowitz | AEIdeas
External headwinds for a US economic recovery
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
US-China decoupling: a reality checkIy was a decoupler before decoupling was cool. I have advocated selective decoupling of the US economy from China for the past four years, arguing that the United States requires absolute self-sufficiency in strategic areas such as defense electronics. That, Dr Henry Kressel and I argued in a November 2016 Wall Street Journal op-ed, requires a massive national effort to bring computer chip fabrication back onshore. We wrote: “Washington should also enforce strict US content rules for sensitive defense technology. Many of the Pentagon’s military systems depend on imported components. That’s a concern on security grounds alone. Procurement rules should be changed to require that critical components be manufactured in the US.” Read More
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FIXING THE US DURING KUNG-FLU &  HOW TO UNDERSTAND RISK IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

4/6/2020

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Bradley A. Thayer and Lianchao Han write: One encouraging sign is that the CCP has developed deep cracks, and some may be reflecting on the consequences of dictatorship. True political reform that leads to democracy and the rule of law is the only way out for China. Ren Zhiqiang may be the last hope for creating a reformed China. If the nation falls into a Maoist abyss, it likely would take international peace and stability with it. – The Hill
What Coronavirus Could Mean for China 
By Emil Avdaliani, April 13, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: States all over the world stand to lose a great deal economically from the coronavirus pandemic. But in the case of China, there is an additional significant dimension to the crisis: the West will grow increasingly distrustful of Beijing, which will further widen an already gaping geopolitical divide. Calls in the West for an economic decoupling from China as well as increasing demands that Beijing comply with Western economic, health, and political standards could complicate China’s global aspirations.
Continue to full article ->
How to make China pay  
John Yoo and Ivana Stradner | NationalReview.com
International use of the yuan 'rising'
The Bank of China says there was steady momentum last year with increasing willingness of foreign companies to use the yuan/renminbi in financing and settlement. Read more
Minxin Pei writes: The events of the past few months have shown that CCP rule is far more brittle than many believed. This bolsters the case for a U.S. strategy of sustained pressure to induce political change. Washington should stay the course; its chances of success are only getting better and better. – Foreign Affairs
Hudson Institute’s Tim Morrison: Controlling Chinese weapons: The Wuhan virus and nuclear weapons
Joseph Bosco writes: Just as an increasingly reckless and irresponsible China unleashed the coronavirus pandemic on the world, its actions may well cause war to break out across the Taiwan Strait. If so — and like the pandemic, Tiananmen, Uighur concentration camps, live organ harvesting, persecution of dissidents and a range of other moral outrages, the institution of the Chinese Communist Party “will be perceived as having failed.” It will, at long last, be time for it to go. Priorities must be established. – The Hill
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HOW TO UNDERSTAND RISK IN FINANCE
how_to_save_the_economy.pdf
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James Andrew Lewis writes: China’s legitimate desire for economic development is complicated by powerful commercial motives. […]The U.S. and its allies have a strong hand to play in this contest, since the Party’s rule is fragile, and China’s economy, despite its size, needs access to and partnership with the West. A good first step, one where the U.S. might be able to persuade Europe and Japan to join us, is to insist on reciprocity in the treatment of foreign and Chinese companies. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
MI Responds: March 2020 Jobs Report
Beth Akers, Manhattan Institute
here_comes_the_great_deflation_threat_-_the_washington_post.pdf
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FED ENTERS THE MUNI MARKET:  CHAOS & MORAL HAZARD REIGNS

3/29/2020

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Not One Emerging Market Financial Crisis, But Many…
by Brad W. Setser
China Needs More Progressive Taxes and More Spending on Public Health
by Brad W. Setser
CHAOS & PANDEMICS
The Fed Enters Municipal Bond Market: Will It Be Enough?
Michael Hendrix, E21

On Monday, the Federal Reserve went all-in to support America’s shuttered economy. Among its most remarkable moves was its backstop of the $3.8 trillion municipal bond (“muni”) market, a critical source of financing for states, counties, and municipalities. The Fed hopes this will keep credit flowing to states and localities as their revenues—and the market for their debt—reel in the wake of the global coronavirus pandemic. As investor dollars rush out of the muni market, it is revealing troubling debts as well as questions about the role of fiscal federalism in a time of crisis. Read more here....
Do You Xi What I Xi?
quoting Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
Whatsoever you do, read Jim
CFR:  FOLLOW THE MONEY; ADDRESSING GLOBAL DOLLAR SHORTAGE
CFR:  LESSONS LEARNED FROM CHINA TRADE WAR
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THE END OF THE CHINA MIRACLE

3/27/2020

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CHINA'S DEBT TRAP DIPLOMACY
China's BRI:
The Development-Finance Dimension
CHINESE DEFENSE SPENDING
Coronavirus: China's Great Cover-up  by Giulio Meotti 
https://www.hoover.org/research/asias-new-geopolitics
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EXAMINING THE LEAST CREDIT WORTHY STATES DURING CRISIS & PRC DECEPTIONS

3/22/2020

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The Crisis’ Impact on Budgets
Steven Malanga, City Journal
China, America, and the International Order after the Pandemic by Mira Rapp-Hoope
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THE HAN MASTERS IN BEIJING THINK SUCCESSION:  ARTHUR WALDRON CHINA AUTHORITY SPEAKS

3/20/2020

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The West Needs to Wake Up to China's Duplicity by Giulio Meotti  •  
WHAT'S AFTER XI
WHO REPLACES XI JINPING Frank Chen.
​GUY SORMAN
You, Xi
It is time for Americans to recognize and acknowledge that the Chinese president is not our friend.
Beijing Fears COVID-19 Is Turning Point for China, Globalization
By Michael Auslin via RealClearPoliticsMichael Auslin maintains that in its desperation to evade blame from the world community, Beijing has used its propaganda machine to effectively reshape the narrative about the origins of COVID-19. He also argues that the world should responsibly reduce its dependency on China’s economy.

On Coronavirus, Beware the Totalitarian Temptation
By Josef Joffe via the American InterestJosef Joffe challenges the old maxim that totalitarian regimes perform better in devastating times than democracies, arguing instead that an authoritarian cure is always worse than the catastrophe.
Arthur Waldron, University of Pennsylvania; in re: Stability of the PRC and what comes afterward between US and PRC?  Origins of the virus; requirement of stability in China for the commerce to continue.   Xi early said he was personally in charge of solving the virus matter.  The US is the meal ticket for China; how does it benefit China to damage the US?  In China, is the younger generation ready for a major change in the Communist party?  The artists and academics are miles ahead of the party.  Xi does not want to have a successor being groomed, and ensured that that would not happen. Ergo, there’s no clear succession path and the infighting will probably be intense. In Chinese classics, the question of the root of succession: since ancient times, when the emperor is first proclaimed, he must immediately name a successor. Xi emphatically has not done this.
China's first emperor, Ch’in Shi Huang, is famed for having united the Warring States' walls to form the Great Wall of China. Most of the present structure, however, dates to the Ming dynasty. Xi Jinping may oversee the disintegration of today's unified PRC.
Danielle Pletka and Derek Scissors write: Over the last couple of years, the Washington consensus view on China has shifted 180 degrees. The nation whose transformation lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty and spurred serious calls for examination of a “China model”—authoritarian government married to managed capitalism—is now perceived by most political leaders as a strategic competitor at best, a dangerous enemy at worst. Setting aside the well-documented military challenge, since the Wuhan outbreak, the economic and health threats have come sharply into view. – The Dispatch
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THE SOCIAL BALANCE OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC IS UPROOTED

3/15/2020

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​The Myth of Chinese Capitalism: The Worker, the Factory, and the Future of the World Hardcover – March 10, 2020.  by Dexter Roberts  (Author)
https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Chinese-Capitalism-Worker-Factory/dp/1250089379

Dexter Roberts lived in Beijing for two decades working as a reporter on economics, business and politics for Bloomberg Businessweek. In The Myth of Chinese Capitalism, Roberts explores the reality behind today’s financially-ascendant China and pulls the curtain back on how the Chinese manufacturing machine is actually powered.

He focuses on two places: the village of Binghuacun in the province of Guizhou, one of China’s poorest regions that sends the highest proportion of its youth away to become migrants; and Dongguan, China’s most infamous factory town located in Guangdong, home to both the largest number of migrant workers and the country’s biggest manufacturing base.

Within these two towns and the people that move between them, Roberts focuses on the story of the Mo family, former farmers-turned-migrant-workers who are struggling to make a living in a fast-changing country that relegates one-half of its people to second-class status via household registration, land tenure policies and inequality in education and health care systems. 

In The Myth of Chinese Capitalism, Dexter Roberts brings to life the problems that China and its people face today as they attempt to overcome a divisive system that poses a serious challenge to the country’s future development. In so doing, Roberts paints a boot-on-the-ground cautionary picture of China for a world now held in its financial thrall.
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CHINA:  THAT 70'S FEELING & THE HORROR OF STATE BUDGETS

3/8/2020

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Conditional convergence and the rise of China: A political economy approach to understanding global power transitions
Michael Beckley | Journal of Global Security Studies
The US scores higher than China across measures of geography, demography, and institutions, suggesting that a US-China power transition is unlikely.
China shutdown not affecting fentanyl production  
Roger Bate | AEIdeas
That 1970s Feeling
Kenneth Rogoff shows why the next global recession, which could be around the corner, is unlikely to look like the last two.
Coronavirus and Xi Jinping’s Many Failures
By Bradley A. Thayer & Lianchao Han, RealClearDefense: "Fundamentally, the pandemic is only the latest in a list of horrors that China has inflicted on itself and the world, and which, in turn, have dispelled the myth of the “China Dream” and “China model.”"
The Virus and the Economy – Steven Malanga, City Journal
Corona Virus Monetary Policy
By John Cochrane via the Grumpy Economist
Globalization Bleeding
By Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
State Budgets: Hidden Debt And Hidden Deficits
With John Rauh via PolicyEd
Decision 2020 Report: How to Fix America’s Immigration System
Via Decision 2020
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CHINESE REGIME:  NO TRUST, NO VACCINES

2/28/2020

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 Visit our coronavirus spotlight page here.
China’s political warfare strategy takes hit from coronavirus
Thankfully, short-run GDP is overrated, and the labor force, capital stock, and productivity remain unchanged. While the second quarter will be weaker than last year, it will be much stronger than the first. Read it here.
China’s ruling elite stumbles into a ‘disaster’Deserted factories, businesses struggling to survive and the economy on life-support. 
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SYRIA FACES ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

2/10/2020

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​Turkish Casualties in Idlib Test Putin-Erdogan Alliance
MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE Winter 2019 Issue
Damascus battles economic collapse as the Syrian pound plummets
Faced with the threat of further sanctions, a volatile situation in neighboring Lebanon, and a brutally tough winter, the only thing currently rising from the embers of war-torn Syria is the value of the dollar against the struggling Syrian pound. This marks the beginning of a dangerous new phase in the Syrian conflict as the government, fresh from its eight-year-long war for survival, tries to fend off an economic collapse from within.
Read article
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PLAGUE HITS CHINA, LEADERSHIP'S CREDIBILITY DAMAGED AGAIN

2/5/2020

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China: Xi Admits Knowing of Virus Two Weeks before Telling Public.  The publishing of a speech made on February 3 showed that President Xi Jinping knew about the coronavirus in early January.  This is earlier than previously stated by the Chinese Communist Party, who said they became aware of the dangers posed by COVID-19 on January 23.  “I have at every moment monitored the spread of the epidemic and progress in efforts to curtail it, constantly issuing oral orders, and also instructions,” President Xi announced to the public.  Some in China are convinced the statement confirms President Xi and the Communist Party identified and handled the outbreak well while others question why the public was not informed on the dangers of the virus by the government until two weeks later. 
Associated Press Forbes
China’s Communist Party Struggles to Restore Credibility After Virus Outbreak
Desmond Lachman warns of the potential economic fallout a major pandemic could create.
​The coronavirus’ dollar boost
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas
An all too likely casualty of the coronavirus epidemic will be President Trump’s oft-repeated promise of promoting a more competitive US dollar and eliminating the US trade deficit. Indeed, if the coronavirus epidemic is not soon brought under control, we must expect a much stronger US dollar and a widening in the US trade deficit. Any slowing in the Chinese economy as a result of the coronavirus is bound to have a much larger adverse effect on the Asian and German economies than it will on that of the United States. This is bound to induce a much easier monetary policy stance in Asia and Europe than that in the United States.
Fentanyl is the norm in illicit markets
Roger Bate | AEIdeas
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US CONCEDES TO CHINA IN TECH WAR

1/27/2020

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ASIA TIMES
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CHINA'S BIGGEST THREAT YET:  GOVERNANCE & PANDEMICS

1/24/2020

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CHINA:  RECORD LEVEL BOND DEFAULTS
​CHINA DEEP IN MENA REGION
​US-CHINA FACE OFF IN MIDDLE EAST
Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania; in re: History speeding up, in the context of China. Wuhan coronavirus: Without governmental legitimacy there’s no transparency; without transparency in a crisis, there’s panic. An illegitimate Chinese dictatorship that won’t protect its population from pandemics. 
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TRENDS FOR CHINA TO WATCH IN 2020

1/6/2020

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China Critics Rewrite Basic Economics to Fit a Declinist Narrative.  . . . The article author, Roger W. Robinson, wrote that “the Chinese state is pursuing a ‘Made in China 2025’ strategy designed to dominate key technology sectors—from artificial intelligence and quantum computing to hypersonic missiles and 5G.” [Ronald] Reagan would have had a field day with this. One reason he was so confident in the Soviet Union’s eventual collapse was because he knew state-planning of its economy would fail by definition.  State planning of economic activity doesn’t work on all too many levels, but the main reason it doesn’t is that technological progress is as a rule a consequence of endless failure on the way to breakthroughs that are only arrived at after endless mistake realization.
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/01/07/china_critics_rewrite_basic_economics_to_fit_a_declinist_narrative_104032.html
The Seven Trends That Will Define China In The 2020S
mentioning Elizabeth Economy via South China Morning Post
What can the world expect from China in this new decade? Besides US-China tension, slower Chinese economic growth, vertical integration and the tilt towards Chinese domestic consumption are all likely to have an effect on the rest of the world.
Joseph Sternberg, WSJ, in re:  Trade with China: we always assumed China was operating from a position of economic strength.  However, in a lot of matters it’s weak:  the population is ageing; the working-age proportion is shrinking, which will have big implications for the “factory to the world.”  Is China ready to become a net importer? I’m not sure it is.  . . .  The problem with China is that it's not set up to operate  in the global environment: it needs to make its currency convertible, open financial markets to attract capital,  and reform corporate governance.  A main reason that the US attracts investments to the enormous degree that it does is that we operate under the rule of law.  To attract global capital, need to make investors comfortable, yet  Xi Jinping seems to be working in the opposite direction.  Will have to surrender a lot of political control, which will let their own citizens send capital overseas. Otherwise, China is in for a really rocky ride.
Bond defaults rise as China lifts credit allocationThe trend of rising defaults in China’s domestic bond market will extend its run in the foreseeable future as the allocation of debt becomes more disciplined amid Beijing’s growing tolerance for such episodes, writes Umesh Desai. Bond defaults in China rose to a record 130 billion yuan in 2019 from less than 1 billion five years ago, according to S&P Global, which said issuers from inland provinces had higher default rates due to weaker operating performances and tight funding conditions.
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DOLLAR SHORTAGE IN LEBANON SPILLS OVER TO SYRIA

12/23/2019

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Dollar shortage crisis in Lebanon spills into Syria
 The Syrian pound's value plummeted against the US dollar after the Lebanese pound depreciated.
​Syrians struggle to survive amid pound crisis
 The Syrian pound has significantly declined against the dollar, which has affected the purchasing power of citizens and led to many stores shutting their doors.
Syrian Currency Crisis Batters Assad Regime
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HOW TO UNDERSTAND PHASE 1 DEAL WITH BEIJING

12/15/2019

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WHY 2020 MATTERS FOR CHINA
CHINA:  DECOUPLE, DECENTRALIZE & CONSUME
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The Latest Details Still Don’t Justify Trump’s China Trade Deal
The Big Hole in the China Trade Agreement  by Gordon G. Chang  •
Making News: National Media Coverage for RealityChek’s Views on the China Trade Deal…& More!
ASIA TIMES
Breaking China
​With American help, the Communist regime has grown richer and more oppressive
MILTON EZRAT
​A Promise of Stability
The USMCA trade deal offers relief from economic uncertainty.
Xi Jinping’s Annus Horribilis
By Minxin Pei, The Strategist (ASPI):  "China’s strongman leader can’t seem to catch a break. From the trade war with the United States to the crisis in Hong Kong to international criticism of his human rights record, President Xi Jinping suffered major setbacks in 2019, and his prospects for 2020 appear even worse."
The China trade deal: Death knell for Chinese high-tech structural reform?
Claude Barfield | AEIdeas
 
While President Trump touted the "phase one" trade agreement with China as a triumph, in reality it represents a victory for China and its hard-liners. The limited deal signals that the Trump administration has given up on the legitimate demands made over the past three years for changes to Chinese protectionist and mercantilist behaviors. This result introduces the dangerous possibility that the Chinese learn that no US president will persevere in a struggle for Chinese structural reform.
The information we have about the US-China deal is promising, writes Derek Scissors. While Chinese concessions will almost surely fall short, the US didn’t give up leverage (as some wanted) and can respond to either meaningful progress by China or the lack.
READ MORE
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THE MYTHOLOGY OF CHINA'S BELT ROAD INITIATIVE, HOW THE MEKONG IS DYING & how the US BROKE CHINA

11/28/2019

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THE RIVALRY IS A CLASH
DAVID GOLDMAN'S LATEST BOOK ON CHINA
THE MEKONG IS DYING
When we reject progress: China edition
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
The idea of progress — that through actions and agency humanity can make the world a bit better tomorrow than it is today — is a fairly recent concept. And as Chinese history proves, nothing about progress is inevitable.
Full Story   
Breaking China
Clifford D. May — The Washington Times
Suppose you had a neighbor who beat his wife, abused his children, engaged in violent crimes, and routinely burgled your home. Would you invite him for Sunday brunch? Go into business with him? Share a bungalow at the beach? I don’t think so. So why are we still pretending that China is just one trade agreement away from becoming anything other than the nation-state version of the odious character I’ve described above? Read More
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ASIA TIMES
CHINA'S ECONOMIC DOWNTURN IS WORSE THAN YOU THINK
The Crucial Trade War Message of the New U.S. Economic Growth Report
We Aid the Growth of Chinese Tyranny
Michael Brendan Dougherty, National Review
The surest way to lose to China is to disparage expertise
Oriana Skylar Mastro | Defense One
When China stumbles, the world economy will shudder
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
The Trump administration should not exaggerate China’s long-run economic challenge to the US and should take into account the impact of a slowing China on the rest of the global economy.
The broken China model
Matthew Continetti | Washington Free Beacon
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EXAMINING CHINA AFTER TRUMP'S TARIFF REGIME ENDS

11/23/2019

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HOW MODERN CHINESE EMPIRE WAS BORN
CHINA'S HIDDEN ECONOMY
China’s economic clay feet
Desmond Lachman | The Bulwark
South China Sea of troubles
Oriana Skylar Mastro | The Economist
In Beijing and Washington patience is waning and calls for action are escalating, making more direct and potentially dangerous encounters likelier. The world should pay more attention to one potential flashpoint in particular: the South China Sea.
China Runs Out of Ammo Against U.S.
Noah Smith, Bloomberg

President Trump’s Almighty Dollar
Desmond Lachman, The Hill
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IS THE CHINESE STATE COUNCIL STEPPING-UP TO MANAGE THE NATIONS CAPITAL/CURRENT ACCOUNT & MOVING SUPPLY CHAINS OUT OF CHINA

11/18/2019

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In need of direction: The case for moving supply chains out of China
ASIA TIMES
ASIA TIMES
ASIA TIMES
Washington can’t let concerns about China distract it from America’s need for a pro-innovation agenda
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
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AL-SISI NEEDS THE IMF AGAIN

11/17/2019

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Egypt eyes new IMF deal
 Egypt has entered into talks with the International Monetary Fund to discuss a new financing package for the country, whose current economic reform program expires this month.
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    WHAT WILL INDIA LOOK LIKE IN 2025
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