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Derek Scissors | April 2023
Since the Chinese economy has matured and the policy trend is established, long-term forecasting should be more accurate. It’s still imprecise, of course, and vulnerable to any sharp domestic change.
The COVID-19 pandemic and recovery interrupted an economic slowdown that began in 2011 and will resume in 2024–25. China will still outperform in the 2020s, but its trajectory will be unmistakable by the end of the decade.
The 2030s will be worse. Aging will be the principal reason, augmented by a large debt burden and (unless lifted) self-imposed constraints on innovation. In the 2040s, these factors will effectively bring growth to a halt.
Nicholas Eberstadt | Psychoanalysis and Psychotherapy in China | May 26, 2020