Structural problems at the heart of trade war
BY GORDON WATTS
Former finance minister Lou warns of the problems that negotiation teams face when Trump and Xi talk at the G20 in Buenos Aires
Trump ups the ante in fight against China’s intellectual property theft
Claude Barfield | The Hill
The Trump administration is advancing a groundbreaking attack — if it is sustained — on Beijing’s unceasing theft of American intellectual property.
U.S. to Challenge China in Territorial Dispute Using Military, Economic Means
By Stew Magnuson, National Defense Magazine: “Indo-Pacific Command Commander Adm. Philip Davidson said the United States will continue to challenge China over its claims in the disputed South China Sea region with both military and economic means."
China’s Slowdown Will Have Significant Global Effects
Mickey Levy, E21
Cross-Border Capital Flows Source Of Financial Fragility, Says Raghuram Rajan
featuring Raghuram Rajan via Financial Express
Cross-border capital flows have been a source of financial fragility, former RBI governor and top economist Raghuram Rajan has said as he underscored that countries should see how best they can benefit from cross-border flows, without incurring the costs.
China will not be bullied by Imperialist powers, warns Xi confidant
BY GORDON WATTS
Vice-President Wang calls for an end to the trade war with the United States before his withering, parting shot
The Case for Pushing Back Against China by Dhruva Jaishankar
Over 40 years of diplomatic drama, a rising China opens up to, and transforms, the world
(South China Morning Post) On the blustery, cold morning of January 29, 1979, the red flag of China was flying over the South Lawn of the White House when US President Jimmy Carter welcomed Deng Xiaoping, the first Chinese leader to visit the United States since the communists took control of China in 1949.
PBOC eyes three financing channels to aid private firms
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
People's Bank of China to utilize bonds, credits and equities and other financial tools, says governor Yi Gang
f The Chinese Look To The West For A Democratic Model, What Are We Showing Them?
mentioning George P. Shultz, Hoover Institution via The Washington Post
China may be close to achieving something “never before tried at any time in history,” the scholar Nicholas Eberstadt said last week. That new creation: “market totalitarianism.” No country has ever achieved vibrant, entrepreneurial prosperity while denying its people political freedom. And there’s good reason for that, or so we’ve always thought.
Gordon Chang and Thaddeus McCotter discuss Chinese president for life Xi, who said, We need take all complex situations into consideration; step up exercises to enhances servicemen’s ability to fight. . . Xi’s primary audience is the one at home. . . .
Chinese are feeling their oats, but are not yet able to shoot back at the US Navy. Xi Jinping has no Plan B. If Xi backs down, he loses power and maybe his life. He’s increased the cost of losing – which he knows – and he can take China over the edge. If he’s going to die, he might as well slaughter half of humanity if he thinks he’s got a chance to survive.
Foreign Affairs, Caitlin Thomas*: US Navy is likely to encourage China to go max in any exchange of weapons because we can strike at their nukes and they can’t strike at ours. China will get aggressive when you show strength or when you don't – the problem is the nature of the regime. We can detain China, and hope to deter – but we can't deter with weakness. This is why Trump is in such a difficult position now. There’s nothing anyone outside can do to re-institutionalize the CCP. The Party has to do that, itself. We had to confront China over its stealing hundreds of billions of dollars. Yuan is flirting with 7 to a dollar; in the black market, it's 8 to 1. Transaction fee today: 5% China moving from authoritarianism totalitarianism.
Will China go nuclear? Yes – because it doesn't have the forces [the triad] that Russia has; an unstable regime and a man making threats against the US by a man who declares himself ruler for life.
Elizabeth Economy: Xi Jinping And The New Chinese State
interview with Elizabeth Economy via EastWest Institute
Hoover Institution fellow Elizabeth Economy discusses her third and latest book The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State.
Talking their way out of the China-US trade war
BY GORDON WATTS
Influential economists and professors at the prestigious Peking University map out their economic visions of the future
Emerging Asia led world trade growth in August
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Region continues to outperform as Southeast Asian exports to China grow
China signals more support for economy amid ‘profound’ external changes
BY CHRISTOPHER SCOTT
Needle inches away from tackling financial risks to boosting growth
A REVIEW OF XI JINPING'S TENURE TO TURN CHINA AROUND & A LOOK AT THE YUAN'S MOVEMENT WHILE US DEFICIT GROWS
Elizabeth C. Economy's The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping And The New Chinese State
by Elizabeth Economy, Michael R. Auslin via The National Bureau Of Asian Research
Elizabeth Economy’s book The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State examines Xi Jinping’s top political, economic and foreign policy priorities and his reform efforts to date. Reviewers David Shambaugh, Liselotte Odgaard, Yongjin Zhang, and Michael Auslin discuss the themes of the book and whether a true revolution is taking place in Chinese politics, with a response from Elizabeth Economy.
Michael Auslin: US-China Relationship Entering Uncertain Era
via Hoover Daily Report
The United States is justifiably renegotiating its posture toward China after decades of that country manipulating the US on trade, political and cultural fronts, a Hoover scholar says.
Econ 101 predicted Trump would widen the trade deficit
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
Under President Trump's watch, the US trade deficit widened over the past two years. It has now reached an all-time high, running at an annual rate of $1 trillion. With this administration’s budget and trade policies, the trade deficit will continue to widen.
The Impatience Of China's Xi Jinping, China
by Markos Kounalakis via Miami Herald
China is a methodical nation that cautiously plays the long game. That’s the story China likes to tell about itself and the one it would like the world to believe. Unfortunately for China, that once-credible narrative is now a full-blown myth.
Why a Sino-American Cold War Won't Happen
Ngaire Woods, Project Syndicate
Economic Freedom, Part 2
by Alvin Rabushka via Thoughtful Ideas
Most of us have an intuitive or common-sense notion of the meaning of economic freedom. A smattering of features or attributes includes free markets, private enterprise, voluntary exchange, capitalism, limited government, laissez-faire, free trade, low taxes, free movement of capital, and other dimensions of economic life.
China seeks framework for November deal with Trump
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Beijing may be ready to trade short-term concessions and bide its time until it is far and away the world’s largest economy
Stephen Joske writes: China does not need a democratic transition to resume economic growth and military spending. We would be dealing with a China that has lost its post-Global Financial Crisis hubris, but which would become harder to deal with as it grows more insular, all the while blaming domestic problems on external forces. – War on the Rocks
YAHOO FINANCE EXAMINES TRUMP'S TRADE WAR ON CHINA, BEIJING LOOKS AT ITS OWN DEBT TRAP & GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AT CHINA INC.
Raghuram Rajan: Global Financial Stability Risks: A Conversation With Yellen, Reichlin, And Rajan
interview with Raghuram Rajan via Brookings Institution
Hoover Institution fellow Raghuram Rajan argues that regulatory and supervisory tools should be used actively and preemptively to prevent leverage in the financial system from becoming too high.
Asia's 2008 Seer Is Worried All Over Again
featuring Raghuram Rajan via South China Morning Post
Indian economist Raghuram Rajan, who correctly called the subprime crisis, is worried about growing imbalances and the possibility of another global shakeout.
John Taylor On The Global Economy
interview with John B. Taylor via CNBC
Hoover Institution fellow John Taylor discusses trade policy and capital markets.
Mohamed A. El-Erian writes: Rather than wait it out, China would be better advised to follow the approach of South Korea, Mexico and Canada by making concessions to reach an accommodation with the US. [...]Making concessions now won't deliver China’s theoretical “first best,” nor will it be free of costs and risks. Yet it may well be the best feasible option the government has if it is to avoid the bigger threat of seeing its development process derailed. - Bloomberg
Turkey’s Walking Dead: Zombie Companies Lurk Around Every Corner
Aykan Erdemir, John Lechner — War on the Rocks
Following Turkey’s failed coup attempt in July 2016, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan imposed a state of emergency, curtailing not only political but also economic freedoms, including a ban on corporate bankruptcies. When the Turkish government lifted the state of emergency two years later, it naturally led to fears of a bankruptcy surge. The Turkish lira’s meltdown in August, contributing to a 40 percent devaluation of the currency this year alone, has exacerbated such fears. Erdogan’s response has been to allow companies to exclude foreign currency losses from bankruptcy calculations, which risks creating a “zombie economy” to complement Turkey’s already lifeless democracy… Read more
A look at financing requirements for US Treasuries
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
All three main sectors that buy US debt are challenged
Debt: Challenges Ahead
mentioning John B. Taylor via World Bank Publications
Public debt is rising in both emerging markets and low income developing countries to levels not seen since the early 1980s. Forty percent of low income developing countries are now either in debt distress or at high risk of default. At the same time, corporate debt in emerging markets is also exceeding historical levels. This situation calls for new efforts within developing countries and the international community to contain vulnerabilities rising from these increasing levels of debt.