MONETARY REGIMES - CounterStrikeMedia

CHINA STARTED THE TRADE WAR; THE HAN MASTERS MISREAD TRUMP & US DOMESTIC SUPPORT AGAINST CHINA

5/13/2019

Trump didn’t start this trade war. China did.
Marc A. Thiessen | The Washington Post
We should all be able to agree that China is an economic predator against which we need to fight back. Trump is using tariffs to force China to open its markets to free trade and competition.

COUNCIL FOREIGN RELATIONS

Sharpening the US-China trade debate
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
China trade is being argued in strings of tweets and seven-minute (if you’re lucky) TV segments. As a result, no one gets it quite right. Here are corrections of four important missteps in the debate.

The Strategic Logic Behind the Trade War – Robert Kelly, National Interest

HOW CHINA SEEKS TO REFORM BELT ROAD INITIATIVE & RATING AGENCIES AND BOND MARKETS FOR CHINA

5/13/2019

ASIA TIMES

The Second Belt and Road Summit
By Roie Yellinek, May 13, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On April 25-27, 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping convened a second summit of leaders and representatives from around the world to discuss his signature program, the Belt and Road Initiative. Xi’s keynote address revealed his take on Beijing’s trade struggle with the US as well as his approach to the concerns of poorer countries that lie along the initiative’s route.
Continue to full article ->

THE DOLLAR THAT DIDN'T BARK

HOW TEAM TRUMP DOMINATES CHINA

5/8/2019

Emerging Markets’ Dark Cloud Over the Global Economy
Desmond Lachman, AEI

ASIA TIMES

A LOOK AT IRANIAN INFLATION

5/3/2019

Inflation in Iran is on the Rise
Saeed Ghasseminejad | Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor

CHINA, TRUMP & THE CONCEPT OF MANAGED TRADE

5/3/2019

Follow the Money China Never Stopped Managing its TradeSo long as the bulk of China's imports from the United States (and many others) are bought by state firms, China has the ability to manage its trade. The management isn't new. What's new is Trump's implicit willingness to accept managed trade so long as the trade is managed in a way that is judged to help the United States.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser

ASIA TIMES

RATES ON TREASURY FALLING: US GROWTH SLOWING & HOW DOES US END TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CHINA, FINALLY BEIJING ANSWERS WESTERN CRITICISM OF DEBT TRAP DIPLOMACY (OBOR)

4/24/2019

ASIA TIMES

ASIA TIMES

ASIA TIMES

Neena Shenai writes: Facing pressure for political wins and fixated on trade deficits, the Trump administration may settle for compelling China to buy more US exports and agree to unenforceable changes to its economic model. If it chooses this path, the US will have created a managed trade framework with China — adopting a model out of China’s playbook — at the cost of its commitment to free market values and the international economic architecture. – Financial Times

DECOUPLING FROM CHINA IS US POLICY: NIGHTMARE FOR BEIJING'S POLITICAL CLASS

4/18/2019

A better approach to China trade
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
The Trump administration’s approach so far to trade talks with China is to push the Communist Party to do for us what we haven’t done for ourselves. The better alternative is to put the talks on hold and fix America's China policies.

William Alan Reinsch writes: In attempting to produce an agreement on a prescription—a course of action for dealing with China—the most frequent recommendation is that we ought to work together—form a coalition to meet the China challenge collectively rather than individually. There is wisdom in that; China has demonstrated in the past that it does not like to be an outlier, and consistent, sustained pressure from many sources at a high level can alter their behavior. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Huawei and the U.S.-China Supply Chain Wars: The Contradictions of a Decoupling Strategy
by Darren Lim and Victor Ferguson

THEFT, DUMPING AND SUBMERGED MARKETS: CHINA TACKLES HOW TO DOMINATE EUROPE'S BEST DEEP PORTS

4/10/2019

‘Submerging markets’ pose global threat
Desmond Lachman | Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum

HOW CHINA DOMINATES EMERGING MARKETS

Collin Meisel and Jonathan D. Moyer write: While power transitions in and of themselves are contentious business, one can imagine the added drama injected by the Chinese Communist Party as it strives to maintain power — both internally and on the world stage — wary of seeing China return to its much lamented 19th century status as “the sick man of Asia.” To be sure, even as the nation declines, Chinese leaders will have extensive material capabilities and a vast network of relational influence at their disposal should a power struggle ensue. – War on the Rocks

NO MIDDLE INCOME TRAP FOR CHINA?, MASSIVE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CONTINUES, FAKING NUMBERS FOR TRADE NEGOTIATIONS & SETH CROPSEY

3/30/2019

A Chinese fixed exchange rate is a bad idea
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas

No Middle-Income Trap for China
Stephen Roach, Project Syndicate

China's Coming Current Account Deficit?

Xi Jinping is winning the national security war
(The National Interest) America is underreacting to the challenges posed by Beijing.

Does China Have Feet of Clay?
By Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): "Chinese President Xi Jinping seems to be on a roll. He has sent a rocket to the dark side of the moon, built artificial islands on contested reefs in the South China Sea and enticed Italy to break ranks with its European partners and sign on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative."

Seth Cropsey writes: There is insufficient evidence to conclude that China is preparing to initiate hostilities against either Taiwan or Japan. But China’s rulers have not ruled out force to, as they put it, “reunify” Taiwan with the PRC. And practice drills that simulate military movements in an actual conflict are standard armed force tactics. They provide an aggressor with important information about a potential opponent’s intelligence skills, command and control, response times, and tactical dexterity. – Hudson Institute

At the heart of President Trump’s negotiations with China is a troubling contradiction: The United States wants to use the trade talks to encourage the country to adopt a more market-oriented economy. But a key element of a prospective deal may end up reinforcing the economic power of the Chinese state. – New York Times

For decades, Italy felt the brunt of the Chinese economic juggernaut that the United States argues poses a threat to the financial and political future of the West. China’s government-backed manufacturers, operating on a much larger scale with much cheaper costs, devoured small Italian companies producing machinery, textiles and pharmaceuticals. Chinese knockoffs infuriated its high-fashion brands. – New York Times

CHINA VS. USA: WHO IS BIGGER, WHEN & THE HANG-UP'S ON TALKS, TRADE DEFICITS

3/26/2019

AEI

ASIA TIMES

New Study on the Trade War
Robert Verbruggen, National Review

Derek Scissors writes: The near-universal belief that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has already passed or is soon to pass the US in size has multiple distinct flaws. These range from the gross—Chinese government statistics are unreliable—to the subtle—none of the ways economic size is measured are especially reliable. The policies of the two countries matter, especially whether China ever returns to the pro-market reform path. While evaluating the competing development models is contentious and complex, growth arithmetic is simple. – American Enterprise Institute

Sadanand Dhume writes: In my most recent Wall Street Journal column — read it here — I point out China’s double standards on Islam and Islamist terrorism. At home, Beijing persecutes members of the Uighur minority merely for practicing their faith. Overseas, China supports Masood Azhar, a hardened Pakistani jihadist blamed by the US, the UK, and other major Western democracies for fomenting terrorism against India. […] China’s apparent double-standard can be explained by a mixture of Communist Party amorality and realpolitik. – American Enterprise Institute

The true trade deficit and China
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
It’s true that continued economic expansion would make the deficit with the People's Republic of China smaller as a share of total US wealth. It’s also true that a bilateral trade deficit is a dubious measure of success or failure. The question is whether people who were convinced by 2016 candidate Donald Trump’s talk of the greatest theft in history, millions of jobs lost, and even rape will be convinced by the president insisting the trade deficit doesn't matter now.

BROOKINGS: COMPREHENSIVE VIEW US-CHINA RELATIONS

ASIA TIMES: US CHINA TRADE DEFICIT CHARTS FOR 2019

CHINA'S BOND MARKET STILL SOURCE OF FISCAL, MONETARY PROBLEMS & HOW CHINA LEADS GLOBAL INDICES

3/23/2019

ASIA TIMES

ASIA TIMES

China To Continue Proactive Fiscal Policy: Chinese Finance Minister
with Michael Spence via CGTNLarger-scale tax and fee cuts to the tune of nearly two trillion yuan are planned this year to ensure all industries will pay less, while urban employers can contribute a maximum of 16 percent of earnings to cover the basic pension, down from the previous 20 percent, China's top financial officer said on Sunday.

TRUMP'S CHINA POLICY: ECONOMIC DISENGAGEMENT, WHY CHINA WON'T FOLD FOR TRUMP; EXAMINING CHINA'S HIGH SAVINGS RATE & THE FUTURE OF US-CHINA RELATIONS

3/14/2019

The High Costs of the New Cold War
By Minxin Pei, The Strategist (ASPI): “It’s convenient to call the escalating geopolitical contest between the United States and China a ‘new cold war’. But that description should not be allowed to obscure the obvious, though not yet sufficiently understood, reality that this new competition will differ radically from the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union."

Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan write: The slowdown of China’s economic growth has little to do with the trade war. It’s a consequence of China’s development model that took shape during Former President Hu Jintao’s administration. The structural issues on which America is demanding change are essential components of this model, and there’s no sign that China will deviate from it anytime soon. We make these claims not as China watchers—although we are—but as developers of a machine learning algorithm that’s able to analyze the Chinese government’s agenda and predict its future direction. – The China Business Review

is_trump_winning_the_china_trade_war__\|_the_national_interest.pdf
File Size:	4 kb
File Type:	pdf

Will China fold on structural issues? An algorithm says not any time soon.
Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan | China Business Review

SELLING CHINA SHORT: PROJECT SYNDICATE

China’s Still-Too-High Savings Makes China 2025 a Bigger Global Risk

Testimony: The future of the US-China relationship
Oriana Skylar Mastro | Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
If Washington is unwilling to stand up to China as the most powerful nation in the world, it cannot expect anyone else to do so.

BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN ASIA TIMES, CHINESE FINANCIALS SOAR

CHINA GOES NUCLEAR

US TRADE DEFICIT SOARS WHILE UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS, ITS ALL ABOUT CAPITAL FLOWS; AND WHY CHINA'S CURRENT ROUGH SPOT IS PERMANENT

3/8/2019

trade_deficit_freak_out_-_wsj.pdf
File Size:	536 kb
File Type:	pdf

THE SIZE OF THE CHINESE ECONOMY

Can the Chinese dream ever be realized? A long-read Q&A with George Magnus
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

FORBES: CHINA DITCHES US LED ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM FOR TRADE WAR

The Wall Street Journal: Trade deficit freak out, no need to panic
Mark J. Perry | AEIdeas

ASIA TIMES

ASIA TIMES

CHINA WANTS TO KEEP A YUAN PEG TO DOLLAR

China's Quiet Central Banking Revolution
Miao Yanliang welcomes the Chinese central bank's more open communication and increasingly flexible exchange-rate regime.

At stake is China’s avowed goal of establishing itself as a global superpower with influence over a network of allies to balance U.S. influence. China is pouring billions into global efforts such as Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative to forge stronger links with countries around the world. But China’s increasingly strident diplomatic approach could do more harm than good. – Bloomberg

CHINESE CURRENCY REGIME IS.....WELL.......COMPLICATED; A LOOK AT MANAGED TRADE WITH CHINA & BEIJING STEMS ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

3/6/2019

CHANNEL NEWS ASIA

CHINA'S ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING

CHINA FACES TOUGH ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

CHINA'S DOMESTIC ECONOMIC CHALLENGES GROWING

STATUS OF LIBERALIZATION OF CHINA'S ECONOMY

MANAGED TRADE: COUNCIL FOREIGN RELATIONS

Nathaniel Taplin writes: Beijing and President Trump appear near to a trade deal: China buys a lot more U.S. stuff, gives some ground on auto-industry protections and intellectual property, and mostly ignores other U.S. complaints. What would that mean in practice? Mainly, a boost to already-competitive U.S. industries like natural gas, agriculture and autos—and a big hit to other major exporting nations. – Wall Street Journal

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s testimony to House Ways and Means last week indicated that the US would give China yet another pass. Any US-China deal is only worthwhile with strong enforcement. And this is even truer for President Trump. Find out why here.

The US-China economic relationship: A comprehensive approach
Neena Shenai | Joshua P. Meltzer
The US-China economic relationship has reached a critical juncture. Over the past year, the US has imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, and China has retaliated with similar tariffs. In a joint AEI-Brookings Institution policy brief, authors Neena Shenai and Joshua Meltzer argue that the US should work with China to find a long-term solution for a trade deal. Shenai and Meltzer propose a deal that addresses the issues at hand in a free-market manner and strengthens the multilateral global trading system and rule of law that the US has championed in the post–World War II era. Read the full report here and related products here.

ASIA TIMES: 1 COUNTRY, 2 SYSTEMS, MULTIPLE TWEAKS

ASIA TIMES: THE NATURE OF CHINA'S STIMULUS FOR GLOBAL ECONOMY

FIXING THE CHINESE CURRENCY PEG & CAN BEIJING AND D.C. FIX A TRADE WAR TOWARD ACCOMMODATION? FINALLY, A COMPREHENSIVE POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR US CHINA RELATIONS

2/28/2019

PROJECT SYNDICATE

Tom Rogan writes: China’s regime knows it is caught between a rock of authoritarian necessity and a hard place of its own foreign policy. Put simply, Xi knows his power model requires both authoritarianism at home and seizure of market access abroad, but the two are coming into conflict in the eyes of democratic nations, and Xi finds himself stuck. Again, he cannot alter China’s political identity without sacrificing the Communist Party’s total domestic power, but neither can he give up on the means of his ambition for global hegemony: stealing and securing unfair market domination and militarizing the Indo-Pacific. – Washington Examiner

The US-China economic relationship: A comprehensive approach
Neena Shenai and Joshua P. Meltzer | The Brookings Institution
The US-China economic relationship has reached a critical juncture. The US should work with China to agree on long-term solutions for a trade deal that addresses the real issues at hand in a free-market manner and strengthens the multilateral global trading system and rule of law that the US has championed in the post–World War II era.

New Jaw-Jaw: The Geo-Economic Challenge of China’s Belt and Road Initiative by Nadège Rolland and Brad Carson

CHINA, NORTH KOREA & GEO-STATECRAFT

2/27/2019

THE DECOUPLING IS ON: US SEEKS TO LEAVE CHINA

2/21/2019

China trade: The US fails on enforcement, again
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
If President Trump wants to say his (eventual) deal solves the ugly problems he rightly pointed out in 2015–16, it will need much stronger enforcement than meeting after meeting and a chance of proportional action.

The Militarization of Xi Jinping's China
"Recovering" Areas They Never Have Ruled by Gordon G. Chang

BLOOMBERG LOOKS AT THE YUAN

THE FUTURE OF US CHINA RELATIONS

A currency straitjacket for China
Desmond Lachman | InsideSources
In slapping import tariffs on China and attempting to force China into a currency straitjacket, the Trump administration seems to be overlooking that China is the world’s second-largest economy and has for many years now been the world’s major engine of economic growth.

REFORMING THE MIDDLE KINGDOM OR A GLOBAL CHINA: THE CHALLENGE FOR TEAM TRUMP

2/17/2019

The Middle Kingdom Is Dead; Long Live A Global China
By Dickson Yeo
It’s one of the fundamental questions about China and its future place in the world: does the great civilization still view the world through the traditional lens of the Middle Kingdom or does the world face a new China, unbound by many of the structures under…

REFORMING THE MIDDLE KINGDOM: INTEREST RATES & THE PRIVATE SECTO BYASIA TIMES STAFF

China’s intellectual property approach continues to mature
Michael Rosen | AEIdeas
While serious issues remain, innovators in China and around the globe should applaud significant recent steps forward as a sign of the maturity of the Chinese approach to intellectual property.

China’s Growing Military Presence Abroad Brings New Challenges
By Harriet Moynihan & Dr. Wim Muller, Chatham House: “China's involvement in UN peacekeeping contributions has been on the rise for some time. China is also stepping up its own military and security operations abroad to protect its commercial and strategic interests, particularly in Africa. In doing so, China is exposing itself to a more complex set of issues – including international legal issues – with which it is only just starting to grapple."

THE STATE OF US-CHINA TRADE TALKS: POSTURING, PLEADING & PROMISES

2/3/2019

CHINA'S SLOW DOWN & THE WORLD ECONOMY

Don’t hand China the economic crown just yet
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
China is hardly the first country that the US has feared might economically eclipse it. In the 1960s, it was a rising Russian economy that the US feared might outpace it. Then, in the 1980s, it was the Japanese economic miracle that caused the US to shudder.

XI & TRUMP CONTINUE TALKS W/ TOUGH CHOICES

The unpredictable rise of China
Daniel Blumenthal | The Atlantic
Beijing has viewed the US as its chief geopolitical rival, yet official Washington has only recently awakened to this strategic competition. But as American observers start to see China’s ambitions more clearly, they have also misdiagnosed the challenges they pose.

Hudson’s Nate Sibley: How to fight China's financial abuses: Crack down on anonymous companies

WHO WRECKED THE CHINESE MIRACLE? & THE CURIOUS LACK OF DEFAULTS IN CHINA BY HARVARD'S CARMEN REINHART

2/3/2019

The Unpredictable Rise of China
// Daniel Blumenthal
Xi Jinping seeks national rejuvenation, but his nation's mounting power masks increased instability.

The curious case of missing defaults
Carmen M. Reinhart | AEI Economics Working Paper Series
An important new dimension in the latest global capital flow cycle is the surge in Chinese loans to developing countries, notably low-income commodity producers. A driver of China’s overseas lending boom is its larger global footprint, which helped stabilize global trade.

RUSSIANS FLY GOLD OUT OF THE CAUCASUS: PUTIN'S DESPERATION CONTINUES WITH SANCTIONS, A FAILED OLIGARCHY CONTINUES

2/3/2019

CHINA WILL NOT TALK REGIME CHANGE, SO IT OFFERS DEEP CONCESSIONS ABOUT US TRADE DEFICIT

1/30/2019

There Is No Sino-American Trade War
by Martin Feldstein via Hoover Daily ReportChinese negotiators recently offered to buy enough American products to reduce the bilateral trade deficit to zero by 2024. Why, then, have US negotiators rejected that as a way to end the dispute?

Elizabeth Economy: The Third Revolution: Xi JinPing and the New Chinese State
via Hoover Daily ReportHoover Institution fellow Elizabeth Economy discusses her book The Third Revolution: Xi JinPing and the New Chinese State.

Don’t hand China the economic crown just yet
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
China is hardly the first country that the US has feared might economically eclipse it. In the 1960s, it was a rising Russian economy that the US feared might outpace it. Then, in the 1980s, it was the Japanese economic miracle that caused the US to shudder.

XI JINPING WARNS THE PARTY: THE CRISIS IS PERMANENT

1/25/2019

THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE

VAST POLICE STATE CALLED ONE BELT ONE ROAD

CHINA HERITAGE: CHINA'S COMMUNIST, SOCIALIST DREAM FALTERING

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST: HOW CHINA'S POLITICAL LEADERSHIP MISREAD TRUMP

SINOLOGY: ANDY ROTHMAN, HAS THE END ARRIVED FOR CHINA?

Xi sells ‘One China’ dreams to the wrong country
Michael Mazza | The National Interes

TURKISH CURRENT ACCOUNT & ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN VULNERABLE

1/25/2019

Turkey headed for debt default
Desmond Lachman | Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum

Turkey demonstrates how to bungle a currency crisis
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
President Recep Erdoğan’s mismanaging the Turkish lira substantially heightens the likelihood that Turkey will soon default on its external debt mountain.

It’s time for Turkey to go hat in hand to the International Monetary Fund
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

Istanbul on brink of bankruptcy
Turkish President Erdogan has repeatedly said, “If we lose Istanbul, we lose Turkey,” but he indeed may have lost it electorally and in terms of financial accountability.

CFR

Economic woes set to seal fate of Turkey’s local polls
Public opinion polls show that economic problems have climbed to the top of the Turkish public’s concerns and electoral support for the ruling party is on the decline ahead of municipal elections in March.

Erdogan’s Eyes on Turkey’s Largest Private Bank

Why Turkey’s export rise is hard to sustain
A heavy reliance on imported inputs to manufacture goods for export casts a shadow on Turkey’s hype about headway in foreign trade.

M. Bahadir Gulle writes: Turkey can face the danger of becoming a new Venezuela if it cannot finance its current account deficit. In such a case, Erdoğan will inevitably adopt a more nationalist and discriminatory discourse to keep his base solidified. […]The risk of a permanent break off from the West will loom. Losing the support of the West will force Erdoğan to get closer to authoritarian regimes like Russia and China. – Washington Examiner

Turkey’s central bank Monday tweaked its reserve requirements in a move seen by investors as a backdoor tightening aimed at helping the country’s ailing currency. […]The lira came under renewed pressure after the national election board earlier this month canceled results of the Istanbul mayoral race, which the ruling party of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lost, fueling investors’ concerns of political instability and economic volatility. Tension has also been mounting with the U.S. over Ankara’s push to purchase Russian S-400 missile defense systems, a move that could lead to sanctions from Washington. – Wall Street Journal

ORIANA SKYLAR MAESTRO REVEALS CHINA'S GLOBAL AMBTIONS & THE ECONOMIC BRAINS LEADING CHINA'S REBALANCING

1/24/2019

China cannot afford debt traps
Cecilia Joy-Perez | CQ Researcher

China’s strategy to gain power in Asia
Oriana Skylar Mastro | AEI video

Antagonistic Competition Marks U.S.-China Relations 40 Years After Normalization
by Michael R. Auslin via National Review
Amid the tumult of America’s domestic politics, the 40th anniversary of the normalization of Sino–U.S. relations passed almost unnoticed on January 1, commemorated only in subdued comments from Washington and Beijing. The relationship, once heralded by leaders in both countries as the world’s most important, is currently in flux.

CAIXIN: CHINA'S FINANCIAL NEWSITE

US-CHINA TRADE WAR EXAMINED

TRADE WAR DIARIES

CROSS BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS

THE CHINA DIGEST

WHAT WILL INDIA LOOK LIKE IN 2025

U.S. Needs Steady, Strategic Central Bank.wsj.pdf
File Size:	163 kb
File Type:	pdf

The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking pdf
File Size:	211 kb
File Type:	pdf

What Uber Can Teach the Fed pdf
File Size:	150 kb
File Type:	pdf

Trump, Trade & Money.pdf
File Size:	333 kb
File Type:	pdf

Archives

August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
September 2015

Categories

Tweets by WilliamHolland