by Josef Joffe via Tablet Magazine
In January, China’s National Bureau of Statistics made it official: After decades of fabulous GDP growth, the rate is now down to 3%. The culprit is Xi Jinping’s “zero-COVID” policy, plus ruptured supply chains and soaring energy prices. In the post-lockdown recovery, growth will of course bounce back, but not into the enduring double-digit rates prevailing since the 1980s, when China became the envy of the world.
The European Union also announced additional funding for Yemen, while a famine watchdog said that economic warfare is increasingly causing hardship for Yemenis.
The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took the first step in getting its judicial reform adopted by the Knesset.
- "The next Intifada is about to begin," Shany Mor, UnHerd
quoting Stephen Kotkin via The Nation
In a wide-ranging and exceptionally thoughtful interview with The New Yorker, the historian Stephen Kotkin, best known as a biographer of Joseph Stalin, cast a cold eye on the notion that more of the same can lead to a negotiated peace. Kotkin notes that a war of attrition can continue indefinitely unless Russia’s military production capability—its ability “to resupply and produce more weapons”—is damaged.
- "Iran Enriching Uranium to Near Weapons-Grade," FDD Experts, FDD Flash Brief
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
by Elizabeth Economy via PolicyEd Hoover senior fellow Elizabeth Economy provides her perspective on Xi Jinping’s global ambitions and how likely he is to succeed in reaching them.
Dan Blumenthal, Zack Cooper, and Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
There is bipartisan agreement that America’s next president will confront intensifying Sino-American competition and an aggressive People’s Republic of China. To develop comprehensive policy on how to approach the threats that China poses, Dan Blumenthal, Zack Cooper, and Derek Scissors put forth nine recommendations to presidential candidates. On the economic front, the US should ban Chinese participation in key supply chains, require the disclosure of lost intellectual property, and fully implement export controls. To deter military aggression, the US should replace strategic ambiguity, bolster military preparedness, and find ways to work with allies on technology issues. Lastly, the US can use all its recourses by creating a comprehensive counter-coercion strategy for Taiwan, go on the economic offensive against the Chinese Communist Party, and set up structures of collective defense in Asia.
Read more here. >> Learn about AEI’s New China Playbook here. >>
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
For much of 2022, America and China looked to be barreling toward conflict. As 2023 begins, Hal Brands notes that while the relationship has a new atmosphere, that will not last. Neither side is budging on its key interests, all the major disputes remain, and domestic politics are poised to play a spoiling role. What has emerged is a two-track relationship. Track one is intensified diplomacy, featuring renewed engagement on the climate and other transnational problems. The relationship’s second diplomatic track features ongoing and intensifying competition. Neither the US nor China has stopped seeing the other as its chief antagonist. Neither is slackening its efforts to strengthen its position. Continue here. >>
Elaine McCusker | AEIdeas
The new Congress must immediately begin performing its most critical duty—developing and debating defense policy and funding initiatives. Elaine McCusker provides three specific considerations for fiscal year 2024. First, cuts to the defense top line, particularly those that would revert to 2022 levels, would be irresponsible, wasteful, and dangerous. Second, as capacity is a capability of its own, and the current inventory of ships, planes, munitions, and ground assets is shrinking, procurement accounts should be a priority, even at the expense of research accounts if necessary. Lastly, Congress should gather real data on the impacts of three critical disruptors to the industrial base—inflation, workforce, and supply chain—to find spaces to save taxpayer money. Learn more here. >>
January 20, 2023
by Jón Steinsson via Analysis
Over the past few hundred years, economic growth has transformed the standard of living of a large and growing portion of humanity. In the early nineteenth century, the vast majority of people lived in what we now consider extreme poverty. Today, however, the fraction of people living in extreme poverty has dropped to less than 10 percent and keeps falling. The main driver of this monumental change is economic growth.