CounterStrikeMedia - OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

EUROPE'S WINTER OF DISCONTENT EMERGING FAST: NATURAL GAS SHORTAGES MOUNTING

10/3/2021

Pump Politics
The Biden administration has floundered over how to respond to rising gas prices—but a solution to the problem is simple.

Europe and UK Gas Shortage May Accelerate Inflation
Allison Schrager, E21

Europe and the UK are experiencing a gas shortage that threatens to undermine its goals, and wide-spread support, for a zero-emissions future. It also leaves them more dependent on Russia. Energy operates in global markets, which means gas prices in the US are also on the rise. Read more here....

BIDEN TURNS LEFT ON ENERGY POLICY

2/6/2021

Oil prices continue to rise as Saudi Arabia and Russia talk production
The price of Brent crude continued to increase above its pre-pandemic levels during the OPEC+ meeting Thursday.

Germany's Empty Pipeline Logic
by Josef Joffe via Project Syndicate
Nord Stream 2, the almost-finished pipeline running directly from Russia to Germany, is not really about securing cheap natural gas. It is about personal gain and these two countries’ national interest.

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/536305-the-biden-administration-needs-an-energy-reality-check

Energy Policy Insight
featuring Admiral James O. Ellis Jr., Michael J. Boskin, James L. Sweeney, Daniel Heil
Over the last quarter century, the United States has experienced a dramatic transformation. With little fanfare, an energy revolution has occurred that has profoundly altered the nation’s economy, its national security, and its environment.

NORD STREAM 2 & BIDEN'S TEST OF HIS FOREIGN POLICY METTLE

2/1/2021

"Nord Stream 2 Sanctions Present an Early Test for the Biden Administration,"
Matthew Zweig and John Hardie, FDD Policy Brief

MAP OF STATE OWNED OIL

1/12/2021

VC

SAUDI ARAMCO PLUNGES FAST & WHAT'S AFTER OIL FOR PETROL MONARCHIES POST COVID

11/4/2020

Saudi Aramco sees massive drop in third quarter profits
The Saudi oil giant's slump is indicative of the crisis in Middle Eastern and global oil as the COVID-19 pandemic continues.

JONATHAN A. LESSER
The “Transition from Oil” and Other Fairy Tales
Politicians promising a painless switch to renewables are deluding themselves—or more likely you.

Russia, Iraq face OPEC+ cuts, look to new deals
While Iraq's dependence on imported Iranian electricity continues to worry Washington, the key to breaking this energy dependence lies in the development of its own gas fields.

Gulf economies face major challenges in post-COVID 19 world
Signals indicate the embargo imposed on Qatar could come to an end, but can the Gulf Cooperation Council play a coordinating role vital to diversify Gulf economies post-pandemic?

ISRAEL MOVES AHEAD WITH EASTERN MED OIL PICK

10/16/2020

Ephraim Sneh writes: The practical sides of this alliance are Israel’s import of half of its demand of crude oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, and the export of $5 billion in sophisticated Israeli military equipment, according to President Ilham Aliyev’s public statement. But the alliance is not about oil and arms. Azerbaijan, with its vast majority Shi’ite Muslim population, aspires to be a secular, modern, enlightened independent state. Neither of its neighbors agree that Azerbaijan should have all these attributes together. Israel is the country that fully supports all the aspirations of the Azerbaijan people and government. – Jerusalem Post

TURKEY RETURNS TO THE EAST MED & BLACK SEA FOR OIL

10/15/2020

Turkey: Ankara Raises Black Sea Gas Estimates. Turkey has raised the estimated reserves in a gas field off its Black Sea coast after finding an additional 22,500 billion gallons approximately 100 nautical miles north of the Turkish coast. The discovery could transform Turkey’s dependence on Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan for energy imports, as last year’s imports totaled more than $41B. Turkey expects the first gas flow from the field in 2023. Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle

Turkey resumes energy research in disputed waters
ISTANBUL — A Turkish seismic research ship escorted by naval frigates began energy prospecting activities Wednesday in contested tracts of the eastern Mediterranean, renewing disputes between Ankara and Athens over maritime boundaries.
Following a brief pause for maintenance, Turkey’s Oruc Reis vessel redeployed Monday and reached an area near the Greek island of Kastellorizo two miles off the Turkish coast, where it began conducting gas discovery activities Wednesday, according to Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez.
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Chevron's Deal for Noble Energy Marks a Major Shift in Mideast
By JONATHAN TOBIN, Special to the Sun | October 14, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/chevrons-deal-for-noble-energy-marks-a-major/91297/

OILCRAFT: How the myths of scarcity and security haunt U.S. energy policy and keep it tied to the puppet strings of the House of Saud.

8/24/2020

Fiscal sustainability and social cohesion in the face of demographic change
Karen E. Young et al. | T20 Saudi Arabia

Creative destruction works unless undermined by crony capitalism
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

Iran at Risk From Spillover of Armenia-Azerbaijan Clashes
Brenda Shaffer | Senior Advisor for Energy

Critical Minerals and New Geopolitics
Sophia Kalantzakos, Project Syndicate

The Myth of the Great Energy Transformation
Mark Mills, Manhattan Institute
For those who profess the belief that a great “energy transition” is underway, Tesla is the talisman. And why not? No single product that we use in everyday life consumes more energy than a car. The furnace in the average home basement is a distant second, and there are far more cars than homes. The car, with its ubiquity and importance, epitomizes how and why energy is used everywhere. It also epitomizes just how difficult and expensive it will be. Read more here.... (Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

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The Value of the U.S.-Saudi Relations
By Clare M. Lopez, RealClearDefense: "Changes underway within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's leadership are significant and substantive. It is in the U.S. national security interest to acknowledge and encourage those changes, even while urging more progress in areas that concern America’s ethical foundations, like human rights."

How Western Institutions Benefit from Corrupt Islamists in Saudi Arabia
By Irina Tsukerman, August 27, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The recent revelations about Sa’ad Jabri, an Islamist and corrupt former Saudi intelligence officer, highlight the discrepancy between Western institutions’ criticism of Saudi Arabia in the name of human rights and their support for the former officials most responsible for human rights abuses and security threats associated with the Kingdom. A tangled web of relations between pro-Brotherhood Muhammad bin Nayef regime apparatchiks, pro-Qatar members of US law enforcement (like Ali Soufan), and ideologically sympathetic intermediaries (like Jamal Khashoggi) are threatened by Muhammad bin Salman’s reforms.
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Turkey’s new gas find in the Black Sea won’t save the economy
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

Pulling Back the Curtain on Turkey’s Natural Gas Strategy by John V. Bowlus

How Mediterranean standoff complicates Turkey's natural gas agenda
Too many factors — especially tensions with Greece — are at play to determine whether recent gas discovery in the Black Sea will translate into massive commercial and political gains for Ankara.

In the Era of U.S. Energy Abundance: The Role of the Caspian Region in U.S. Policy

BEIJING NEEDS OIL, SO IT DOMINATES VENEZUELA & THE ARMENIA-AZERBAIJANI CONFLICT HITS EURO ENERGY MARKETS BADLY

7/17/2020

Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Poses Threat to European Energy Security
Brenda Shaffer | Senior Advisor for Energy

WHY COAL IS STILL KING

7/17/2020

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-future-still-lies-in-coal-oil-and-nuclear

BIG ENERGY WILL SURVIVE

7/4/2020

OPEC continues oil export cuts in June
Global oil prices continue to hold up relative to earlier in the year as oil-producing countries in the Middle East struggle economically.

HOW CHINA & GERMANY REMAIN ENGERY INDEPENDENT?

6/5/2020

Image: Major existing and planned natural oil and gas pipelines supplying Russian oil and gas to Europe. Public domain.

Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs, in re: The energy re-think in the balance of the Twenty-first Century. Russia in a superior position. Hard to see how, and it’s unlikely that, Russia will be displaced in oil, gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric. Sophisticated energy structure. Its gas will save PRC. Russia is now the most advanced in the world in selling nuclear. Russia is a very stable player because its industries are controlled by the Kremlin. The last thirty years: free trade meant that the world gave its mfrg to China; we all became dependent on it. Now, China is becoming existentially dependent on Russia, incl for LNG. China is equally dependent on China for food from the USA and elsewhere. Russia has been a critical supplier of defense and space for China.

The one thing Riyadh asked of Moscow as to keep Teheran off its back, which Russia has not done. Russia’s ma ally is Iran; is the geopolitical linchpin in the Middle East and Central Asia. Saudi is a dwindling power. Germany abandoned nukes out of morality; is wholly dependent on Russia for power. The Russia-US competition visible in Belgrade, where intell services abound. Russia succeeding in Germany and Serbia which the US has treated badly. Squared off in Montenegro.

THE AYATOLLAH'S OIL & libya's lost revenue

6/2/2020

Libya says oil blockade has cost $5 billion in lost revenue
The Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation said the closure of oil facilities in January has led to billions in losses.

Are the foreign patrons of the Libyan war ready to end it?
Absent major military escalation by his foreign patrons, Khalifa Hifter has now lost the war he initiated against Libya’s internationally recognized government in Tripoli. The question remains, however, of how to end Libya’s proxy war and restart the necessary political process to bring about sustained peace. A sustainable end to the proxy war would have to address arms shipments by land through Egypt and from Sudan involving Russia and/or the UAE, as well as Turkish shipments by sea, and transport by air of military materiel by the principal patrons of the war. It would also have to address the respective parties’ asserted economic interests in Libya, including Turkey backing off from its plans to begin drilling for oil in the eastern Mediterranean in derogation of other — especially Greek — interests.
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https://gcaptain.com/first-of-five-iranian-tankers-docks-in-venezuela

How the battle over energy will reshape Eurasia relationships
One of the driving forces behind Turkey’s Libya policy is a desire to redraw the maritime boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean established by Greece’s agreements with Egypt and Cyprus.The conflict between Turkey and the anti-Turkey bloc is hurting everyone’s energy interests, making investment in the region costlier for energy companies. Without compromises, everyone stands to lose.
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Natural gas in the Black Sea: Strengthening cooperation and balancing power
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia used its dominant position as a natural gas supplier to wield outsized influence in the region. But recent changes in the natural gas market have eroded that dominance. Under increasingly globalized natural gas markets, Russia has been losing its ability to use its dominance as a gas supplier to influence the region.
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CHINA, ENERGY AFTER COVID

5/7/2020

Oil Prices – More Like Post-9/11

The Global Economy’s Fuel Gauge
Oil powers almost all transportation—and Covid-19 will only intensify its dominance.

Saudi Arabia's Problems: Coronavirus, the Economy, and Geopolitics
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 18, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Combatting the coronavirus pandemic and coping with its economic fallout may be Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s most immediate challenge. Equally urgent is repairing strained relations with the US and ensuring the kingdom’s competitiveness with Iran as the two rivals compete for China’s favor.
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Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan forewarned his citizens about their economic future post-COVID-19. While the reckoning was bound to come sooner or later, the pandemic has hurried the future along. What then does a drastic reduction in public spending look like in Saudi Arabia? Karen Young took to Al-Monitor to argue that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council states will need to make cuts in megaprojects, defense spending, and public-sector wages as unsustainably large annual deficits have arrived. Learn more here.

Lebanon is on the brink of collapse: People are starving, the nation’s de facto Hezbollah government is still doing Iran’s bidding, and vultures from Beijing are circling. So why do we care? In a Dispatch op-ed, Danielle Pletka argues that if not for the people, for the selfish reason that the country unmanaged would become an operational beachhead for terrorism, a field for great-power rivals, and a black hole from which no good can emanate. If not, Lebanon promises to join the ranks of Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and others in becoming another nexus of global threat and local misery. And Lebanon is well on its way. Read here.

As governments seek to reopen economies from lockdown restrictions, the trajectory of recovery remains unknown. In an op-ed for the King Faisal Center, Karen Young notes that for the Gulf states, economic recovery will depend a great deal on global oil market demand to stabilize. However, for the Gulf states, a lot is on the line in China, and it will be Beijing’s economic recovery that will set the pace for the Gulf. Continue here.

RUSSIA'S NORD STREAM 2 FINISHED

5/4/2020

Russia: Nord Stream 2 Pipe-Laying Ship Reaches Baltic. The Russian pipe-laying vessel Akademik Cherskiy on Sunday was reported to be on the way to the Kaliningrad region to complete construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany. The project is more than 90 percent complete with about 100 miles of pipeline remaining to be laid along the Baltic Sea near Denmark. President Vladimir Putin earlier this year said that he expected Nord Stream 2 to be completed by the beginning of 2021. Bloomberg Reuters RFE/RL

COVID PANDEMIC SLAUGHTERS PETROL MONARCHIES IN PERSIAN GULF WHILE EXPOSING VULNERABILITIES OF US ENERGY POLICY

5/2/2020

COMING SOON: Stay tuned for the release of Karen Young’s Gulf Financial Aid and Direct Investment (FADI) Tracker. FADI is an interactive tool with data on development assistance by the Gulf Arab states and their hybrid versions of economic statecraft in commitments of foreign direct investment, state-to-state aid, central bank deposits, and provisions of oil and gas in-kind assistance. In the meantime, revisit the Gulf Economic Policy Tracker here.

Last week, AEI’s Karen Young hosted a webinar with leading venture capitalists and investors to discuss innovation, global economic resilience, and the investment climate in the Middle East against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic.

Following the panel, Young recalled how panelist Brad Feld talked about the seven kinds of capital that are essential for building a startup community and ecosystem for growth: "Finance is just one kind of capital—the investment in infrastructure (whether digital or actual physical co-working space), intellectual capital, network capital, cultural, and human capital are all just as important. And for that reason, there are multiple ways for governments and people with resources to intervene and make start-up communities thrive, wherever they may be globally.” US foreign policy in a post-COVID-19 world must attend to the varying capital needs of competitors to protect our interests and allies. This begs the question: What are the silver linings for US innovation and investment wrought by this pandemic? Moreover, how can we capitalize on these to secure America's socioeconomic future? Rewatch the webinar here.

UAE announces cabinet shakeup amid coronavirus pandemic
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced a major Cabinet reshuffle on Sunday as the Gulf country grapples with a slow economic growth amid the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices. UAE Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum said the move aimed to create a “government that is faster in decision-making and is more up to date with changes.” A new Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology was created and Sultan al-Jaber, head of Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company, was appointed as its head. Meanwhile, the Ministries of Energy and Infrastructure were merged. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the economy in the oil-dependent country will contract by 3.5% in 2020. The Emirates ended its virus-related curfew late last month and allowed many businesses to reopen.
Read More
apnews.com

Is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia a Vital Ally?
By Gil Barndollar, RealClearDefense: "Saudi Arabia’s problem with America, unpopularity aside, is twofold. Saudi Arabia’s oil is less important than it used to be, while the Kingdom’s military weakness makes it a clear security liability."

Moises Rendon, Antonio De La Cruz, and Claudia Fernandez write: Iran and Venezuela are still cooperating much less than they did during Chávez years. […]The countries’ efforts to revive Venezuela’s refineries, moreover, will hinge primarily on their ability to carry out technical upgrades without delays, corruption, and mismanagement. As the countries’ long list of failed partnerships indicates, that is unlikely. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Saudi Arabia braces for economic impact
Karen E. Young | Al-Monitor

Coronavirus and the Arab Culture of Secrecy
By Dr. Edy Cohen, May 1, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The quality of healthcare systems in the Arab world varies from country to country. Egypt and Sudan are considered to have the worst, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia are seen as having the most advanced. Whether their domestic health services are high quality or not, many Arab leaders and members of the elites routinely address their personal health needs outside the region, usually going to Western countries for the purpose. The health status of Arab leaders is treated as a closely guarded secret.
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COVID-19 in Qatar
Varsha Koduvayur | Senior Research Analyst

Report: Trump threatened to remove US troops from Saudi if no oil production cut
Trump told the Saudi Crown Prince that US troops would leave Saudi Arabia if OPEC did not cut production, according to a new report.

Oman’s sovereign wealth fund under pressure
Ahead of the prospect of a high budget deficit in 2020, assets held by the State General Reserve Fund (SGRF) plunged by about a third to $14.3 billion.

Historic Oil Price Crash Highlights Holes in U.S. Energy Security
Varsha Koduvayur | Senior Research Analyst

Mohammed Soliman writes: While the GCC states have not yet transformed from oil-powered economies to fully diversified ones, the reforms carried out and the institutional investments made across the Gulf in the 2010s paved the way for the region’s strong digital response to the pandemic and its fallout. […]Other countries in the Middle East would do well to learn from the Gulf’s digital investments when preparing for the future. – Middle East Institute

He elaborated that in The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, the Jews laid out their plan to take over the world and gain control of people’s minds by means of the media and the press. He said that it was thus “only natural” for the Jews to take control of the cinema and he claimed that cinema, soccer, the press, casinos, night clubs, and global advertising agencies are all run and owned by Jews. – Middle East Media Research Institute

RUSSIA'S FAILED OPEC+ GAMBLE WITH SAUDI ARABIA & US IRANIAN CALCULATIONS MUST CHANGE

4/17/2020

Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the USA: Slippery Oil Triangle
By Jonathan Ariel, May 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Oil relationships are as unstable and volatile as romantic ones. Following a deadlocked OPEC summit in February, Moscow and Riyadh announced they would ramp up production, sending already low prices tumbling. Since both countries’ budgets are almost entirely dependent on energy exports, this suggests they have decided geopolitical interests trump purely economic ones.
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What oil markets’ ‘bloody Monday’ means for Gulf producers
Karen E. Young | Al-Monitor

Economic Consequences of COVID-19 in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. National Security
The global COVID-19 pandemic will have a dramatic effect on economies across the globe. But the Middle East may be particularly affected, given the simultaneous fall in oil prices. The economic consequences of this pandemic are also likely to affect U.S. interests in the region. Read more »

Russia’s failed OPEC gamble

Why global oil prices will fall below $10: The twin impacts of the worst global health pandemic in over a century and a price war standoff between the world’s top oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia has driven oil prices to record lows that could soon fall into single dollar digits per barrel. On March 30, spot prices for both global benchmark Brent crude and US-benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to levels not seen since 2002.

Iran's Ayatollahs Will Struggle to Survive the Oil Slump by Con Coughlin

Venezuela: Maduro's Cuban Army by Lawrence A. Franklin

Change US Escalation Calculus With Iran
We offer this opinion piece about increasing US responses to Iranian aggression just as President Trump has this morning “instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.” Of course, we don’t know the crucial rules of engagement that will guide Navy…

AEI'S KAREN YOUNG: GULF, MENA POLITICAL ECONOMIES AND THE COVID PANDEMIC

4/16/2020

From the beginning of the Gulf crisis in June 2017, it was clear to the Trump administration that it could do little in terms of direct mediation between Gulf leaders. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) crisis has heralded a time of diminished American diplomatic engagement in the Gulf and a weakening of regional organizations, points out Karen Young in an article for the Arab Center Washington DC. Most dangerous of all, it has weakened the GCC states’ ability to help each other in what will be the greatest economic and demographic challenge since state formation.
Continue here.

How Coronavirus Will Impact the Middle East
By Itai Shapira, RealClearDefense: "This might not be an “Arab Spring 2.0,” overthrowing authoritarian regimes, but it will impact the region’s strategic dynamics and reshape its future."

Geneva Centre for Security Policy webinar: The impact of the coronavirus crisis on the Middle East
Karen E. Young | Geneva Centre for Security Policy

Al Qaeda is rising again, and no one seems to care. It is getting stronger and actively plotting with the Taliban while waiting for the US to leave Afghanistan, notes Katherine Zimmerman in an AEIdeas blog post. Policymakers would be smart not to dismiss al Qaeda’s growth in far-flung corners of the world. Recognizing al Qaeda’s renewed and future threat does not mean that the US must again prioritize counterterrorism over all else. That would be a mistake. Instead, a smart US approach contesting Chinese and Russian influence in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia should simultaneously counter the terrorism threat. Read here.

As economic activity increases, what might recovery look like in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)? In an article for Castlereagh Associates, Karen Young explains that while the UAE has unveiled a series of stimulus measures to support businesses during COVID-19, the economic fallout of the pandemic has taken its toll on consumer behavior. With many of the country’s key sectors heavily affected by the virus and facing a potentially long period of recovery, businesses will need to adapt to new consumer preferences to encourage a rebound in spending. Learn more here.

OPEC + WINS; COVID WIPES OUT GULF PETROL-MONARCHIES WHILE VENEZUELA GOES UNDER WITHOUT RUSSIA

4/8/2020

Is the new OPEC+ deal a win for Russia?
The new OPEC+ deal has some advantages for Russia but some of the potential long-term implications may be dire for Moscow.

What are the medium-term implications of Saudi Arabia’s oil price war with Russia? Ahead of the OPEC+ deal, Karen Young took to Carnegie’s Middle East Diwan blog to argue that without an agreement among all major players to curtail production, the global oil market will be transformed by shut-ins. Protectionist policies could increase, limiting global trade. For Saudi Arabia, the domestic economy will suffer. Across the Gulf Cooperation Council, access to debt markets will hit Bahrain and Oman the hardest. Iraq’s key source of revenue will be devastated, hindering its ability to pay public-sector wages, among other essential obligations. As a result, Iran will likely become more belligerent. Read here.

Energy Markets After Covid-19

It's Time to Close the Arab League By Dr. Frank Musmar, April 7, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Arab League has been an abject failure on every metric throughout its existence. As it is apparently constitutionally incapable of serving the better interests of its member states, it should be shut down.
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COVID-19 in the Gulf
Varsha Kodvayur | Senior Research Analyst
John Hardie | Research Manager

Westrop on How Western Governments Empower Islamists by Gary C. Gambill
Middle East Forum Webinar
April 7, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60672/westerners-have-empowered-islamists

THE OIL WAR CONTINUES WHILE EGYPT & LIBYA FACE OFF ON DRILLING

3/29/2020

Turkey plans new drilling for oil and natural gas in disputed waters, in a major assertion of its claims over resources that could fuel tensions with neighbors. Drilling will take place in the eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea from July, while seismic exploration will be stepped up within maritime borders set by an accord with Libya’s internationally recognized government, the Turkish energy minister said. – Bloomberg

Ellen R. Wald writes: If Saudi Arabia is able to demonstrate that it could sell all of its supply, then that could signal that, at least on one level, its gamble is working. […]If, on the other hand, Saudi Arabia can’t find buyers, the market will have little confidence in the kingdom’s ability to impact prices or its power over the oil market. Global oil prices will fall and Saudi Arabia will face an identity crisis. – Bloomberg

Karen Young writes: The economies of the GCC states will experience major changes from the twin COVID-19 and oil crises, as will the global economy. The societies of the GCC states, however, may be the most changed in terms of their demographic composition and reliance on foreign labor. This could be a moment for recalibration of reliance on foreign workers. It could also be a moment in which standards of living are drastically downshifted as a vibrant consumer base is weakened by expatriate exits. – Al-Monitor

Oil-market central planning: Not just for socialists anymore
Benjamin Zycher | NationalReview.com

After the (eventual) great restart, a new economic normal
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

Egypt and Turkey's energy face-off in the Mediterranean
Egypt signing an agreement with five major energy companies to start drilling in the Mediterranean off its coast near Libya raises the prospect of more friction developing with Turkey.

Turkey appears to want more than Syria’s oil
Like Moscow and Washington, Ankara seems to be coveting the oilfields of Deir ez-Zor in Syrian Kurdistan, which Kurds fear would give Turkey an opening to take over the entire Rojava area.

Saudis risk losing last Republican defenders with oil price war
The oil price war places the Saudis at risk of losing their previously stalwart defenders on Capitol Hill, the last line of defense against legislation targeting the kingdom.

Turkey appears to want more than Syria’s oil
Like Moscow and Washington, Ankara seems to be coveting the oilfields of Deir ez-Zor in Syrian Kurdistan, which Kurds fear would give Turkey an opening to take over the entire Rojava area.

Dr. Vish Sakthivel writes: The pandemic has brought profound and indefinite uncertainty to societies the world over, and whether the opening provided by the health crisis will have lasting effects on Hirak’s modes of action is yet to be seen. […]However, that the majority is calling for a different tack and ready to use the crisis — and the public outrage that will likely ensue — as a political opportunity reveals a dynamic and adaptable movement that will continue to be a fixture in Algerian politics. – Middle East Institute

5 DOLLAR BARREL OIL IS HERE: RUSSIA TAKES ON U.S. FRACKERS

3/9/2020

Liam Denning writes: America’s economic identity as primarily a services-led, energy consumer rather than an exporter in the OPEC mold carries a more insidious threat to the well-being of petro-states. Three years on from its first public airing, the Trump administration’s “energy dominance” mantra has aged like a fine wine-cooler. […]Which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia would love America to keep doing just that. A U.S. government explicitly supporting oil prices is less likely to throw its weight behind alternative forms of energy supply (and demand). – Bloomberg

Oil in the Time of Corona
Mark Mills, City Journal

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/486975-its-not-armageddon-for-americas-oil-and-gas-industry

ARAMCO PROFITS DOWN
OIL PRICE WAR IS ON

China’s rise may not be inevitable

In recent weeks, Russia has absorbed two major setbacks: a falling out with Turkey over Syria and the onset of an oil price war with Saudi Arabia. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands notes that recent events remind us that President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy is transactional, shortsighted, and often counterproductive, similar to that of President Trump’s statecraft. Mortgaging the future for short-term gains isn’t a winning strategy, but it’s an approach that Putin and Trump seem to have in common. Continue here.

Russia's Shift from "Greater Europe" to "Greater Asia"
By Emil Avdaliani, March 15, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Though analysts tend to portray Russia’s foreign policy as truly global (that is, independent of Europe, the US, and China), the country is plainly tilting toward Asia. The Russian political elite does its best to hide this development, but the country is accumulating more interests and freedom to act in Asia than in Europe or anywhere else.
Continue to full article ->

Price Wars and Pandemic: How Coronavirus and a Russia-Saudi Dispute are Affecting Oil Supply with Gregory Brew

Fed throws $1 trillion into money markets as financial volcano erupts

On Monday, the global oil price cratered. The impetus was the collapse in talks between Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on further cuts to production. But, writes Christian le Miere, the systemic causes of the oil-price collapse are beyond government control.

CNBC

The Drop In Oil Prices: Good Or Bad?
by David R. Henderson via Defining Ideas
OPEC, the United States, and the rules

Russia: Oil to Remain Competitive Despite Price Drop. Russia’s energy ministry announced on Monday that the oil sector will keep its share of the market and remain competitive despite price projections. Energy Minister Alexander Novak stated, “The Russian oil industry has a high-quality resource base and a sufficient margin of financial strength to remain competitive at any forecast price level, as well as maintain its market share.” Reuters U.S. News & World Report

Russia: Ruble Falls 7%. The Ruble reached a four-year low on Monday following a breakup of talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia over proposed cuts in oil production. In response, Russia’s central bank announced it will be suspending foreign-currency purchases for 30 days to “increase the predictability of actions of monetary authorities under the conditions of significant changes on global oil markets.” The collapse in oil price could cause a deficit for the economy this year and the ruble drop could cause inflation. Bloomberg RFE/RL

OIL PRICE

Oil to hit $20 amid Saudi-Russian price warThe breakdown of the OPEC+ alliance and the ensuing Saudi flooding of the markets could drive oil down to $20 a barrel this summer. “$20 oil in 2020 is coming. Huge geopolitical implications,” tweeted Ali Khedery, who previously served as ExxonMobil’s senior advisor for the Middle East. Read More

RUSSIA TAKES ON US SHALE

It was a “Black Monday” for Russia as the country woke to find the ruble down to four-year lows following a 25% crash in global oil prices – their biggest fall in the century. The downward spiral in oil prices is the direct result of Russia failing to reach an agreement with OPEC, the organization of top oil exporters informally led by Saudi Arabia, with which Moscow has been cooperating in the OPEC+ framework. Read More

Oil price collapse beyond any government’s controlOn Monday, equity, energy, bond and currency markets all were launched into turmoil as the global oil price collapsed. Hit by both a demand and a supply shock, oil has fallen nearly 50% this year. Although oil producers are likely to be hit hard by this latest development, the longer-term effects of the price collapse are not all bad. Read More

Mideast oil producers brace for impact of price slide
The global coronavirus outbreak and falling oil prices could spell a massive economic slowdown for oil-producing countries in the Middle East.

Does Moscow’s withdrawal from OPEC-plus deal end Russia-Saudi honeymoon?
Russia’s decision to break off from the Saudis in the OPEC-plus agreement has some merits.

The United States is still too reliant on oil

In a Washington Post op-ed, Karen Young examines the severe economic effects on both sides of the Persian Gulf and countries in the region that rely on the Gulf Arab states for financial support. Despite some growth in the region, the Saudi oil supply shock combined with a global pandemic threatens this hard-won growth. Read more here.

2020 is shaping up to be Iraq’s most difficult year since 2003, when the US launched its shock-and-awe campaign to bring down longtime dictator Saddam Hussein. Michael Rubin took to the National Interest to argue that last week’s plunge in oil prices completes Iraq’s perfect storm. The Iraqi government has suffered three strikes: a constitutional crisis, coronavirus, and now a plunge in oil prices. Iraqis are resilient, but they will now pay the price for their leaders’ populism. It is time for the US to reengage diplomatically and economically to help Iraq reform its political and economic system toward the stability and prosperity the new generation of Iraqis deserve. Read here.

Following the US killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Qassem Soleimani, most attention focused on the Iranian response. After the attack on US troops in Iraq, Iran stated that it had achieved the “great revenge” it desired. Yet, few observers believe that Tehran is finished with its revenge. In a Foreign Policy op-ed, Ryan Berg and Colin Clarke argue that in the wake of the Soleimani killing, Iran would consider an attack on Latin America as a means of sending an undeniable signal to the US of its continued capability to escalate with a strike in America’s backyard. Read here.

What’s to blame for the sudden drop in oil prices? Saudi Arabia? Coronavirus? Too much supply? In a new "In 60 Seconds" video, Karen Young explains that low global growth coupled with a disruption in Chinese economic activity and a failed OPEC+ strategy has left us with too much oil in the market. As the Saudis sell the oil at a discount with few buyers, the result is an oil dump. The good news is we have plenty of oil. The bad news is we need the global economy, especially the Chinese economy, to pick up demand. Watch the video here.

Jane Nakano writes: The nuclear industry of advanced industrialized countries is under significant pressure to remain competitive as the market landscape for new nuclear power opportunities changes. […]This report illuminates how the changing market competition among the United States, Russia, and China will affect their future relations with nuclear commerce recipient countries, and discusses why Russia and China promote nuclear commerce, as well as which factors may alter their market competitiveness. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

LIBYA SHUTS DOWN OIL MARKETS: CIVIL WAR

2/6/2020

Libyan divide deepens as eastern forces shut down oil ports
As the Libyan National Army accused the Government of National Accord and Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation of spending its revenues on mercenaries to fight along their ranks, the tribes in eastern Libya shut down multiple oil ports and demanded a new distribution of oil revenues.

OLD ENERGY, NEW BOOM: WHY HYDROCARBONS MATTER STILL

1/27/2020

Old Energy, New Boom
Mark Mills, City Journal

EXAMINING ISRAELI OIL & ITS IMPACT ON REGIONAL GEOPOLITICS

1/3/2020

Israel Could Be Key to 2020 Middle East Geopolitics
By Frank Musmar, January 2, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel’s geographical position means it must stay agile and manage complex relations with its Muslim neighbors through quiet collaboration and smart use of its technological and economic advantages. Over the past two decades, Israel has discovered offshore gas, begun extensive seawater desalination, and dramatically expanded its navy’s platforms and missions. Ten years ago, Israel depended on Egypt’s natural gas; nowadays, Israel exports natural gas to Egypt and Jordan.
Continue to full article ->

Egypt unruffled by EastMed pipeline project
Now that Cyprus, Greece and Israel have agreed to build a subsea pipeline to supply Europe with natural gas, officials are downplaying its potential impact on Egypt's ambition to become a regional energy hub.

The Leviathan Natural Gas Field Could Be a Game-Changer for Israel-EU Relations

NATURE BEATS OFF SOVIET DEPREDATIONS

1/3/2020

Gregory Copley, author, Sovereignty in the 21st Century and the Crisis for Identity, Cultures, Nation-States , and Civilizations; and president of the International Strategic Studies Association; in re: Gregory was an election observer in Uzbekistan on 22 December: in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, an autonomous republic within Uzbekistan. It occupies the whole northwestern end of Uzbekistan, is on the Aral Sea. Photo of a boat that used to sail on the Aral and now has long been dry and rusting far out on the shore. However, people are starting to fish in some of the nearby lakes.

The Economist labelled Uzbekistan as the country that made the most improvement in 2019.

First, protecting people; next, stabilizing the seabed: seeding it with various plants; and third, to regenerate the water supply into the Aral Sea. New efficiencies in water mgt, esp irrigation.

Karakalpak is a Turkic language similar to Uzbek but quite distinct, linguistically and culturally. The Soviets destroyed the entire ecoregion, a crime against humanity and the planet, in front of the eyes of the entre world, as the five-year plans demanded that the local agriculture be only cotton. Deliberate abuse for the pockets of the Sovietskii bureaucrats.

I went to the Farghona* Valley, where long there’s been narcotics smuggling, but that’s now reduced to very little. A rise in food production throughout the country, with a diverse economy, A big O&G producer now. Ninety per cent of the cars on the road are GM vehicles—bldg them in Uzbekistan.

The Soviets were monsters. It's incredible what they were doing to their slave states.