America's Strategic Oil Reserves by Lawrence Kadish
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Egypt as an Eastern Mediterranean power in the age of energy transition
The emergence of Egypt as an Eastern Mediterranean energy hub resulted from a culmination of years of deliberate efforts. Increasingly, Egypt will be able to re-export Israeli natural gas or convert it into blue hydrogen, generate green electricity for export, or utilize its growing wind and solar power capacity to produce green hydrogen. Read article
Germany Bails Out Gas Importer Uniper. German gas importer Uniper received a state bailout of 15 billion euros ($15.2 billion) after reduced Russian gas supplies crippled the company. As part of the bailout, the German government will take a 30 percent stake in Uniper. Uniper’s majority share-holder Fortum, a Finnish energy firm, will hold 56 percent in the company down from 80 percent currently. Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle
Russia Denies Pipeline Turbine In Transit. Russia on Friday rejected a Reuters report that a turbine for the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is stuck in transit. The report alleges that Moscow has yet to approve the return of the turbine from Germany to Russia. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the report “nonsense” and “groundless.” Russia blames reductions in gas flows through the pipeline on the turbine, which was in Canada for repairs and initially blocked by Western sanctions. Germany instead says Russia is using gas as a political weapon. Bloomberg Reuters  Meanwhile, energy consumers around the globe continue to feel a squeeze. U.S. natural gas production has slowed over the past few months despite supply shortages. Across the pond, UK lawmakers have offered energy-intensive industries a relief package after the country experienced a massive uptick in energy costs. However, soaring energy bills for businesses and families alike has not discouraged a bipartisan group of lawmakers from proposing a “border carbon adjustment” tariff. Writing for City Journal, Mark Mills criticizes that proposal as one that would fuel inflation at a particularly terrible time while not addressing its purported climate-related goals. Instead, Mills points to next-generation nuclear power and other technological innovation as a more viable path toward addressing the country’s energy needs.
Pump Politics
The Biden administration has floundered over how to respond to rising gas prices—but a solution to the problem is simple.
Europe and UK Gas Shortage May Accelerate Inflation
Allison Schrager, E21 Europe and the UK are experiencing a gas shortage that threatens to undermine its goals, and wide-spread support, for a zero-emissions future. It also leaves them more dependent on Russia. Energy operates in global markets, which means gas prices in the US are also on the rise. Read more here....
Oil prices continue to rise as Saudi Arabia and Russia talk production
The price of Brent crude continued to increase above its pre-pandemic levels during the OPEC+ meeting Thursday.
Germany's Empty Pipeline Logic
by Josef Joffe via Project Syndicate Nord Stream 2, the almost-finished pipeline running directly from Russia to Germany, is not really about securing cheap natural gas. It is about personal gain and these two countries’ national interest.
Energy Policy Insight
featuring Admiral James O. Ellis Jr., Michael J. Boskin, James L. Sweeney, Daniel Heil Over the last quarter century, the United States has experienced a dramatic transformation. With little fanfare, an energy revolution has occurred that has profoundly altered the nation’s economy, its national security, and its environment.  "Nord Stream 2 Sanctions Present an Early Test for the Biden Administration,"
Matthew Zweig and John Hardie, FDD Policy Brief  Saudi Aramco sees massive drop in third quarter profits The Saudi oil giant's slump is indicative of the crisis in Middle Eastern and global oil as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. JONATHAN A. LESSER The “Transition from Oil” and Other Fairy Tales Politicians promising a painless switch to renewables are deluding themselves—or more likely you. Russia, Iraq face OPEC+ cuts, look to new deals While Iraq's dependence on imported Iranian electricity continues to worry Washington, the key to breaking this energy dependence lies in the development of its own gas fields. Gulf economies face major challenges in post-COVID 19 world
Signals indicate the embargo imposed on Qatar could come to an end, but can the Gulf Cooperation Council play a coordinating role vital to diversify Gulf economies post-pandemic?
Ephraim Sneh writes: The practical sides of this alliance are Israel’s import of half of its demand of crude oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, and the export of $5 billion in sophisticated Israeli military equipment, according to President Ilham Aliyev’s public statement. But the alliance is not about oil and arms. Azerbaijan, with its vast majority Shi’ite Muslim population, aspires to be a secular, modern, enlightened independent state. Neither of its neighbors agree that Azerbaijan should have all these attributes together. Israel is the country that fully supports all the aspirations of the Azerbaijan people and government. – Jerusalem Post
 Turkey: Ankara Raises Black Sea Gas Estimates. Turkey has raised the estimated reserves in a gas field off its Black Sea coast after finding an additional 22,500 billion gallons approximately 100 nautical miles north of the Turkish coast. The discovery could transform Turkey’s dependence on Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan for energy imports, as last year’s imports totaled more than $41B. Turkey expects the first gas flow from the field in 2023. Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle Turkey resumes energy research in disputed waters ISTANBUL — A Turkish seismic research ship escorted by naval frigates began energy prospecting activities Wednesday in contested tracts of the eastern Mediterranean, renewing disputes between Ankara and Athens over maritime boundaries. Following a brief pause for maintenance, Turkey’s Oruc Reis vessel redeployed Monday and reached an area near the Greek island of Kastellorizo two miles off the Turkish coast, where it began conducting gas discovery activities Wednesday, according to Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez. Read Full Article Chevron's Deal for Noble Energy Marks a Major Shift in Mideast
By JONATHAN TOBIN, Special to the Sun | October 14, 2020 https://www.nysun.com/foreign/chevrons-deal-for-noble-energy-marks-a-major/91297/
Fiscal sustainability and social cohesion in the face of demographic change
Karen E. Young et al. | T20 Saudi Arabia
Iran at Risk From Spillover of Armenia-Azerbaijan Clashes
Brenda Shaffer | Senior Advisor for Energy
The Myth of the Great Energy Transformation
Mark Mills, Manhattan Institute For those who profess the belief that a great “energy transition” is underway, Tesla is the talisman. And why not? No single product that we use in everyday life consumes more energy than a car. The furnace in the average home basement is a distant second, and there are far more cars than homes. The car, with its ubiquity and importance, epitomizes how and why energy is used everywhere. It also epitomizes just how difficult and expensive it will be. Read more here.... (Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) 
The Value of the U.S.-Saudi Relations
By Clare M. Lopez, RealClearDefense: "Changes underway within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's leadership are significant and substantive. It is in the U.S. national security interest to acknowledge and encourage those changes, even while urging more progress in areas that concern America’s ethical foundations, like human rights."
How Western Institutions Benefit from Corrupt Islamists in Saudi Arabia
By Irina Tsukerman, August 27, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The recent revelations about Sa’ad Jabri, an Islamist and corrupt former Saudi intelligence officer, highlight the discrepancy between Western institutions’ criticism of Saudi Arabia in the name of human rights and their support for the former officials most responsible for human rights abuses and security threats associated with the Kingdom. A tangled web of relations between pro-Brotherhood Muhammad bin Nayef regime apparatchiks, pro-Qatar members of US law enforcement (like Ali Soufan), and ideologically sympathetic intermediaries (like Jamal Khashoggi) are threatened by Muhammad bin Salman’s reforms. Continue to full article ->
Pulling Back the Curtain on Turkey’s Natural Gas Strategy by John V. Bowlus
How Mediterranean standoff complicates Turkey's natural gas agenda
Too many factors — especially tensions with Greece — are at play to determine whether recent gas discovery in the Black Sea will translate into massive commercial and political gains for Ankara.
Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Poses Threat to European Energy Security
Brenda Shaffer | Senior Advisor for Energy
OPEC continues oil export cuts in June
Global oil prices continue to hold up relative to earlier in the year as oil-producing countries in the Middle East struggle economically.
Image: Major existing and planned natural oil and gas pipelines supplying Russian oil and gas to Europe. Public domain.
Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs, in re: The energy re-think in the balance of the Twenty-first Century. Russia in a superior position. Hard to see how, and it’s unlikely that, Russia will be displaced in oil, gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric. Sophisticated energy structure. Its gas will save PRC. Russia is now the most advanced in the world in selling nuclear. Russia is a very stable player because its industries are controlled by the Kremlin. The last thirty years: free trade meant that the world gave its mfrg to China; we all became dependent on it. Now, China is becoming existentially dependent on Russia, incl for LNG. China is equally dependent on China for food from the USA and elsewhere. Russia has been a critical supplier of defense and space for China. The one thing Riyadh asked of Moscow as to keep Teheran off its back, which Russia has not done. Russia’s ma ally is Iran; is the geopolitical linchpin in the Middle East and Central Asia. Saudi is a dwindling power. Germany abandoned nukes out of morality; is wholly dependent on Russia for power. The Russia-US competition visible in Belgrade, where intell services abound. Russia succeeding in Germany and Serbia which the US has treated badly. Squared off in Montenegro.
Libya says oil blockade has cost $5 billion in lost revenue
The Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation said the closure of oil facilities in January has led to billions in losses.
Are the foreign patrons of the Libyan war ready to end it?
Absent major military escalation by his foreign patrons, Khalifa Hifter has now lost the war he initiated against Libya’s internationally recognized government in Tripoli. The question remains, however, of how to end Libya’s proxy war and restart the necessary political process to bring about sustained peace. A sustainable end to the proxy war would have to address arms shipments by land through Egypt and from Sudan involving Russia and/or the UAE, as well as Turkish shipments by sea, and transport by air of military materiel by the principal patrons of the war. It would also have to address the respective parties’ asserted economic interests in Libya, including Turkey backing off from its plans to begin drilling for oil in the eastern Mediterranean in derogation of other — especially Greek — interests. Read Article
How the battle over energy will reshape Eurasia relationships
One of the driving forces behind Turkey’s Libya policy is a desire to redraw the maritime boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean established by Greece’s agreements with Egypt and Cyprus.The conflict between Turkey and the anti-Turkey bloc is hurting everyone’s energy interests, making investment in the region costlier for energy companies. Without compromises, everyone stands to lose. Read Article
Natural gas in the Black Sea: Strengthening cooperation and balancing power
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia used its dominant position as a natural gas supplier to wield outsized influence in the region. But recent changes in the natural gas market have eroded that dominance. Under increasingly globalized natural gas markets, Russia has been losing its ability to use its dominance as a gas supplier to influence the region. Read Article
The Global Economy’s Fuel Gauge
Oil powers almost all transportation—and Covid-19 will only intensify its dominance.
Saudi Arabia's Problems: Coronavirus, the Economy, and Geopolitics
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 18, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Combatting the coronavirus pandemic and coping with its economic fallout may be Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s most immediate challenge. Equally urgent is repairing strained relations with the US and ensuring the kingdom’s competitiveness with Iran as the two rivals compete for China’s favor. Continue to full article ->
Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan forewarned his citizens about their economic future post-COVID-19. While the reckoning was bound to come sooner or later, the pandemic has hurried the future along. What then does a drastic reduction in public spending look like in Saudi Arabia? Karen Young took to Al-Monitor to argue that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council states will need to make cuts in megaprojects, defense spending, and public-sector wages as unsustainably large annual deficits have arrived. Learn more here.
Lebanon is on the brink of collapse: People are starving, the nation’s de facto Hezbollah government is still doing Iran’s bidding, and vultures from Beijing are circling. So why do we care? In a Dispatch op-ed, Danielle Pletka argues that if not for the people, for the selfish reason that the country unmanaged would become an operational beachhead for terrorism, a field for great-power rivals, and a black hole from which no good can emanate. If not, Lebanon promises to join the ranks of Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and others in becoming another nexus of global threat and local misery. And Lebanon is well on its way. Read here. As governments seek to reopen economies from lockdown restrictions, the trajectory of recovery remains unknown. In an op-ed for the King Faisal Center, Karen Young notes that for the Gulf states, economic recovery will depend a great deal on global oil market demand to stabilize. However, for the Gulf states, a lot is on the line in China, and it will be Beijing’s economic recovery that will set the pace for the Gulf. Continue here.  Russia: Nord Stream 2 Pipe-Laying Ship Reaches Baltic. The Russian pipe-laying vessel Akademik Cherskiy on Sunday was reported to be on the way to the Kaliningrad region to complete construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany. The project is more than 90 percent complete with about 100 miles of pipeline remaining to be laid along the Baltic Sea near Denmark. President Vladimir Putin earlier this year said that he expected Nord Stream 2 to be completed by the beginning of 2021. Bloomberg Reuters RFE/RL
COMING SOON: Stay tuned for the release of Karen Young’s Gulf Financial Aid and Direct Investment (FADI) Tracker. FADI is an interactive tool with data on development assistance by the Gulf Arab states and their hybrid versions of economic statecraft in commitments of foreign direct investment, state-to-state aid, central bank deposits, and provisions of oil and gas in-kind assistance. In the meantime, revisit the Gulf Economic Policy Tracker here. Last week, AEI’s Karen Young hosted a webinar with leading venture capitalists and investors to discuss innovation, global economic resilience, and the investment climate in the Middle East against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic. Following the panel, Young recalled how panelist Brad Feld talked about the seven kinds of capital that are essential for building a startup community and ecosystem for growth: "Finance is just one kind of capital—the investment in infrastructure (whether digital or actual physical co-working space), intellectual capital, network capital, cultural, and human capital are all just as important. And for that reason, there are multiple ways for governments and people with resources to intervene and make start-up communities thrive, wherever they may be globally.” US foreign policy in a post-COVID-19 world must attend to the varying capital needs of competitors to protect our interests and allies. This begs the question: What are the silver linings for US innovation and investment wrought by this pandemic? Moreover, how can we capitalize on these to secure America's socioeconomic future? Rewatch the webinar here. UAE announces cabinet shakeup amid coronavirus pandemic The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced a major Cabinet reshuffle on Sunday as the Gulf country grapples with a slow economic growth amid the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices. UAE Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum said the move aimed to create a “government that is faster in decision-making and is more up to date with changes.” A new Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology was created and Sultan al-Jaber, head of Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company, was appointed as its head. Meanwhile, the Ministries of Energy and Infrastructure were merged. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the economy in the oil-dependent country will contract by 3.5% in 2020. The Emirates ended its virus-related curfew late last month and allowed many businesses to reopen. Read More apnews.com Is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia a Vital Ally? By Gil Barndollar, RealClearDefense: "Saudi Arabia’s problem with America, unpopularity aside, is twofold. Saudi Arabia’s oil is less important than it used to be, while the Kingdom’s military weakness makes it a clear security liability." Moises Rendon, Antonio De La Cruz, and Claudia Fernandez write: Iran and Venezuela are still cooperating much less than they did during Chávez years. […]The countries’ efforts to revive Venezuela’s refineries, moreover, will hinge primarily on their ability to carry out technical upgrades without delays, corruption, and mismanagement. As the countries’ long list of failed partnerships indicates, that is unlikely. – Center for Strategic and International Studies  Coronavirus and the Arab Culture of Secrecy By Dr. Edy Cohen, May 1, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The quality of healthcare systems in the Arab world varies from country to country. Egypt and Sudan are considered to have the worst, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia are seen as having the most advanced. Whether their domestic health services are high quality or not, many Arab leaders and members of the elites routinely address their personal health needs outside the region, usually going to Western countries for the purpose. The health status of Arab leaders is treated as a closely guarded secret. Continue to full article -> Report: Trump threatened to remove US troops from Saudi if no oil production cut Trump told the Saudi Crown Prince that US troops would leave Saudi Arabia if OPEC did not cut production, according to a new report. Oman’s sovereign wealth fund under pressure Ahead of the prospect of a high budget deficit in 2020, assets held by the State General Reserve Fund (SGRF) plunged by about a third to $14.3 billion. Historic Oil Price Crash Highlights Holes in U.S. Energy Security Varsha Koduvayur | Senior Research Analyst Mohammed Soliman writes: While the GCC states have not yet transformed from oil-powered economies to fully diversified ones, the reforms carried out and the institutional investments made across the Gulf in the 2010s paved the way for the region’s strong digital response to the pandemic and its fallout. […]Other countries in the Middle East would do well to learn from the Gulf’s digital investments when preparing for the future. – Middle East Institute He elaborated that in The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, the Jews laid out their plan to take over the world and gain control of people’s minds by means of the media and the press. He said that it was thus “only natural” for the Jews to take control of the cinema and he claimed that cinema, soccer, the press, casinos, night clubs, and global advertising agencies are all run and owned by Jews. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the USA: Slippery Oil Triangle By Jonathan Ariel, May 6, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Oil relationships are as unstable and volatile as romantic ones. Following a deadlocked OPEC summit in February, Moscow and Riyadh announced they would ramp up production, sending already low prices tumbling. Since both countries’ budgets are almost entirely dependent on energy exports, this suggests they have decided geopolitical interests trump purely economic ones. Continue to full article -> Economic Consequences of COVID-19 in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. National Security The global COVID-19 pandemic will have a dramatic effect on economies across the globe. But the Middle East may be particularly affected, given the simultaneous fall in oil prices. The economic consequences of this pandemic are also likely to affect U.S. interests in the region. Read more »  Why global oil prices will fall below $10: The twin impacts of the worst global health pandemic in over a century and a price war standoff between the world’s top oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia has driven oil prices to record lows that could soon fall into single dollar digits per barrel. On March 30, spot prices for both global benchmark Brent crude and US-benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to levels not seen since 2002. Iran's Ayatollahs Will Struggle to Survive the Oil Slump by Con Coughlin Venezuela: Maduro's Cuban Army by Lawrence A. Franklin Change US Escalation Calculus With Iran
We offer this opinion piece about increasing US responses to Iranian aggression just as President Trump has this morning “instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.” Of course, we don’t know the crucial rules of engagement that will guide Navy…
From the beginning of the Gulf crisis in June 2017, it was clear to the Trump administration that it could do little in terms of direct mediation between Gulf leaders. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) crisis has heralded a time of diminished American diplomatic engagement in the Gulf and a weakening of regional organizations, points out Karen Young in an article for the Arab Center Washington DC. Most dangerous of all, it has weakened the GCC states’ ability to help each other in what will be the greatest economic and demographic challenge since state formation.
Continue here. 
How Coronavirus Will Impact the Middle East
By Itai Shapira, RealClearDefense: "This might not be an “Arab Spring 2.0,” overthrowing authoritarian regimes, but it will impact the region’s strategic dynamics and reshape its future."
Geneva Centre for Security Policy webinar: The impact of the coronavirus crisis on the Middle East
Karen E. Young | Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Al Qaeda is rising again, and no one seems to care. It is getting stronger and actively plotting with the Taliban while waiting for the US to leave Afghanistan, notes Katherine Zimmerman in an AEIdeas blog post. Policymakers would be smart not to dismiss al Qaeda’s growth in far-flung corners of the world. Recognizing al Qaeda’s renewed and future threat does not mean that the US must again prioritize counterterrorism over all else. That would be a mistake. Instead, a smart US approach contesting Chinese and Russian influence in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia should simultaneously counter the terrorism threat. Read here.
As economic activity increases, what might recovery look like in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)? In an article for Castlereagh Associates, Karen Young explains that while the UAE has unveiled a series of stimulus measures to support businesses during COVID-19, the economic fallout of the pandemic has taken its toll on consumer behavior. With many of the country’s key sectors heavily affected by the virus and facing a potentially long period of recovery, businesses will need to adapt to new consumer preferences to encourage a rebound in spending. Learn more here. |
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