CounterStrikeMedia - OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE US ENERGY REVOLUTION

5/8/2019

The shale revolution isn't just about cheap energy; it's changing geopolitics
Mark J. Perry | Washington Examiner

Want an Energy Revolution? It Won't Come from Renewables
Mark Mills, City Journal

Throughout history, some 60 percent to 90 percent of every nation’s economy has been consumed by food and fuel costs. Hydrocarbons changed the way that humans organize their productive capacity. The coal age, followed by the oil age, and now by the ascendant age of natural gas, has (at least for developed nations) driven the share of GDP devoted to acquiring food and fuel down to around 10 percent. That transformation constitutes one of the great pivots for civilization.
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US PULLS BACK ON IRANIAN SANCTIONS REGIME YET SENDS CARRIER STRIKE GROUP TO PERSIAN GULF

5/8/2019

IRAN WANTS TO DISRUPT US SANCTIONS REGIME

U.S. renews some nuclear waivers for Iran, breaking from hard line

Iran Faces Difficult Choice After U.S. Narrows Nuclear Sanctions Waivers

U.S. Deploys Carrier Strike Group to Counter Iran

Reports: Iran to adopt countermeasures as US revokes sanctions waivers
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will reportedly announce countermeasures to the US exit from the JCPOA and its reimposition of sanctions.

Iranian Oil Exports Fall in April – But More Work to be Done

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, cut June pricing for all crude grades to the U.S. and raised most pricing to other regions. The kingdom’s pricing appears to be aimed at easing concerns over supplies to the U.S. after the Trump Administration ended waivers for buyers of Iranian oil, while still benefiting from rising demand for its crude in Asia and Europe. – Bloomberg

Iran Gives Europe Sixty Days to Meet Nuclear Demands
by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
May 9, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58442/iran-gives-europe-60-days-to-meet-demands

New Sanctions Hit Iran’s Multi-Billion Dollar Metal Industries
Saeed Ghasseminejad | Senior Iran and Financial Economics AdvisorMatthew Zweig | Senior Fellow

Energy Sector Waivers Would Undermine the Maximum Pressure Campaign against Iran
Matthew Zweig | Senior Fellow

NIGERIA & THE US: ENERGY BEHEMOTHS

5/1/2019

Nigeria and the US: A tale of two energy economies
Benjamin Zycher | RealClearMarkets

THE SANCTIONS REGIME MOVES ON, IRANIAN STAGFLATION CONTINUES TO RAVAGE & NUCLEAR OPTION AGAINST IRAN

4/24/2019

After oil, Washington weighs sanctions on Iran’s other sources of U.S. dollars

"U.S. Aims Lethal Blow at Tehran’s Finances by Prohibiting Oil Exports,"David Adesnik, FDD Policy Brief

The most important issue for predicting whether the US’s upped-economic pressure campaign on Iran will work is probably knowing whether the US and China are about to strike a major deal ending their trade war.If they cut a deal in the coming weeks, the US’ removal of waivers for sanctions against countries who buy Iranian oil could really bring the Islamic Republic’s oil experts to close to zero and force Tehran to cut a new deal. – Jerusalem Post

Forget oil sanctions, end of nuclear cooperation waivers could quietly kill Iran deal
(Al-Monitor) In Arak, a waiver is necessary to enable Iran to redesign its heavy water research reactor in order to “support peaceful nuclear research and radioisotope production for medical and industrial purposes.” The proposed redesigned Arak reactor would vastly cut the potential for a plutonium path to the bomb.

How incompetence, sanctions jointly hit Iran’s economy
Facing stagflation, the Iranian authorities must shift course and de-politicize economic decisions such as foreign exchange policy and management of the country's money supply.

In the 40 years of Iran’s Islamic Republic, 2019 is shaping up to be among the worst for an economy that’s weathered wars, sanctions and oil slumps. Even before the U.S. decided to tighten oil sanctions against Iran last week, the rial currency had lost two thirds of its value against the dollar, and the International Monetary Fund expected gross domestic product to shrink 6 percent. – Bloomberg

Tighter U.S. sanctions against Iran could fuel inflation to the highest level since 1980, according to the International Monetary Fund, as the Islamic Republic’s economy grapples with a weakening currency and tighter U.S. sanctions on oil exports. – Bloomberg

Karim Sadjadpour writes: If Khamenei believes he can’t do a deal with Trump, and he fears that waiting out Trump projects weakness, he may contemplate restarting Iran’s nuclear program, counter-escalating against U.S. interests and allies in the Middle East, or both. Iran is the only country in the world simultaneously fighting three proxy wars—against the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia—each of which it could further agitate. – The Atlantic

If President Donald Trump succeeds in cutting Iran’s oil exports to almost nothing, one of the main beneficiaries is likely to be Russia. The economic blow to Iran will ease the Kremlin’s efforts to rein in Iranian influence in Syria, bolstering President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to project Russian power across the Middle East. Tehran and Moscow were one-time collaborators in the region, but they’ve found themselves increasingly at odds as Syria’s eight-year-old civil war winds down. – Bloomberg

AZERBAIJAN OIL & BP UNEARTH VAST DEPOSITS

4/24/2019

RUSSIA NORD-STREAM 2 ENCIRCLES & DIVIDES NATO WHILE TEAM TRUMP BRINGS RELIEF TO NATIONS TRADING OIL WITH IRAN

4/18/2019

U.S. Aims Lethal Blow at Tehran’s Finances by Prohibiting Oil Exports
David Adesnik | Director of Research

Russia’s Gas Web Ensnares Europe
New pipeline projects throughout the Middle East could boost Russian influence there while also ensuring the country’s role as the prime supplier of energy to Europe.

OPEC has a new best friend: Russia

US expected to announce end to Iran oil import waivers
The Donald Trump administration is expected to announce today that it is ending waivers for imports of Iranian oil as of May 2 in the latest escalation of its “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran. The State Department in November issued 180-day waivers to give eight countries a short time window to end their imports. Greece, Italy, and Taiwan have since done so, while China, India, Turkey, Japan and South Korea now must follow suit or face US sanctions. A few of the buyers will be granted short wind-down periods but will not receive further waivers as the United States seeks to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero. Read More 

Tightening the screws on Iran. And . . . ?
Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas
Sanctions aren’t a goal; they’re tools to get to something else. And it’s high time the president was frank with us about what that something else really is.

US cuts Iran oil waivers in move to force Tehran out of nuclear deal
Washington is letting sanctions waivers for countries that import Iranian oil expire as it tries to make Iran quit the 2015 nuclear deal before a UN arms embargo is lifted next year as part of the agreement.

CYPRIOT-GREEK-ISRAELI CRUDE TAKES OFF & WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF GAS IN EASTERN MED.

4/11/2019

A New EastMed Friendship, with US Support
By Dr. George N. Tzogopoulos, April 10, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The prospective EastMed pipeline would be the flagship project of the Cypriot-Greek-Israeli collaboration, a developing friendship that enjoys deep foundations. The US has now made its support for that partnership official.
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The Eastern Mediterranean and the EU Parliamentary Election
By Dr. Spyridon N. Litsas, May 3, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The states of the Eastern Mediterranean should pay close attention to the upcoming European parliamentary election, as its outcome will influence geostrategic and economic developments in that region. Israel, Cyprus, and Greece will have a major role to play in strengthening Western relationships in the region for decades to come.
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US OMAN SIGN PORT DEAL & IRANIAN OIL SURGES DESPITE SANCTIONS REGIME

3/30/2019

U.S. and Oman Sign Strategic Port AgreementNicole Salter | Project Manager
Behnam Ben Taleblu | Senior Fellow

Renewables Get the Press, But Natural Gas Is Growing Faster
Robert Bryce, National Review

Iranian Oil Exports Continue to Surge Despite U.S. Sanctions

Why Iran is silent about US military deal with neighboring Oman
Iran has demonstrated no sign of outrage at a recent US-Omani military deal as the American Indo-Pacific Strategy seems not to clash with Iran's interests in the region.

INFECTED US OIL TURNED AWAY IN ASIA & RUSSIAN OIL POLICY IN ARTIC EXPOSED FOR GEOPOLITICAL TIES

3/28/2019

BLOOMBERG

Nikos Tsafos writes: Every move that Russia makes to develop energy resources in the Arctic is seen as further proof for an unsettling proposition: unlike the United States, Russia takes a strategic view toward Arctic energy; it spends serious money to develop the region’s resources; and it is using the Arctic to boost ties with China and, more recently, Saudi Arabia. There is truth in that worldview, but it also leaves much out. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

On March 11, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused the Russian oil giant Rosneft of defying US sanctions by purchasing oil from the Venezuelan state-owned oil PDVSA, which has been sanctioned since January. Pomepo said: […]the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: “The threats coming from the US Secretary of State against the Rosneft company over its cooperation with Venezuela are senseless. It has been hit by sanctions since 2014, but continues successfully working. Meanwhile, its former US partners, whom Washington had forced to curtail cooperation, suffered serious damage.” – Middle East Media Research Institute

GRAPHIC OF WORLD'S OIL SUPPLIES & SQUEEZING SYRIAN SHIA PROXIES FOR OIL

3/26/2019

VISUAL CAPITALIST

Fuel Shortage Persists in Syria amidst Tougher Sanctions Enforcement
David Adesnik | Director of Research

OPEC SEEKS HIGHER US GAS PRICES; VENEZUELA NEEDS RUSSIA AND CHINA TO SUSTAIN US ONSLAUGHT

3/23/2019

ASIA TIMES

DAVID P. GOLDMAN: US CAPACITY REACHED

HOW OIL IS OUTPERFORMING ENERGY STOCKS

ASIA TIMES

EURASIA UNITED: CASPIAN SEA PIPELINE

3/22/2019

http://www.white-stream.com

NORD STREAM 2: PUTIN ENVELOPES EUROPE

3/18/2019

trump_and_angela_merkel_are_dueling_over_nord_stream_2._heres_why._-_the_washington_post.pdf
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ALGERIA & OPEC'S SHAKY SIX GETTING VULNERABLE

3/17/2019

BLOOMBERG

OPEC and allies meet to review oil production cuts al-monitor.com

PETROL & ISRAELI POLITICS

3/15/2019

JOSEPH DANA MARCH 12, 2019 Politics intrudes in Israel’s gas strategy Israel wants to export natural gas to Europe, but geopolitics, boycotts and other issues stand in the way

AZERBAIJAN: NEW PETROL POWERHOUSE

3/15/2019

VICTOR DAVIS HANSEN ON BRINGING BAKU INTO THE E.U.; THE NAGORNO CONFLICT; HERE'S WHY BAKU (A NET EXPORTER OF OIL) ON THE CASPIAN SEA MATTERS

3/15/2019

INDIA SEEKS WAIVERS FROM US TO BUY IRANIAN OIL, US LED SANCTIONS DAMAGING HEZBOLLAH

3/11/2019

India wants to keep buying Iranian oil at its current level of about 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), as it negotiates with the Washington about extending a sanctions waiver past early May, two sources in India with knowledge of the matter said. – Reuters

Iran hopes to have its part of a new payments vehicle — devised to allow it to trade with EU firms despite US sanctions — — ready within a fortnight, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse

Israel‘s navy could take action against Iranian oil smuggling, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday, urging world powers to foil any effort by Tehran to evade US sanctions. – Reuters

Hanin Ghaddar writes: Despite Hezbollah’s repeated claims that foreign sanctions would not affect its capabilities, evidence suggests that the group is facing a serious financial crisis. Its leaders have already implemented harsh new austerity measures, and sources close to the group believe these efforts will become more severe over time. […]Although Iran has not stopped sending money to Hezbollah so far, the group realizes that continued sanctions and/or altered regional circumstances may require it to seek alternative sources of funding down the road. – Washington Institute

pakistan army goes into oil business

3/9/2019

ASIA TIMES

Pakistan’s military is taking a key role in the development of one of the world’s biggest untapped copper and gold deposits, which is currently stalled by a multi-billion dollar legal wrangle with foreign mining firms, multiple sources familiar with the situation said. – Reuters

Asad Hashim writes: The question is one that strikes at the heart of how power is distributed in Pakistan; of whether an elected civilian leader can exert control over the country’s powerful military; of whether Pakistan is truly willing to give up support for armed groups that it has used as proxies for decades; and of whether the country—which has long frustrated successive U.S. governments, likely none more so than Donald Trump’s administration—is truly changing its foreign-policy and security stances beyond a focus on neighboring India. – The Atlantic

Arzan Tarapore writes: The India-Pakistan crisis seems to have peaked. The two sides continue to trade intermittent small-arms and artillery fire across the Line of Control that divides Kashmir. India has shown itself to be more and more militarily aggressive after the 2016 and 2019 responses. Unlike the deniable 2016 raid, India’s 2019 strike at Balakot compelled Pakistan to retaliate. But an India with few other viable options for deterrence, increasingly enamored by military swashbuckling and encouraged by the United States, may become seduced by competitive risk-taking. – War on the Rocks

IRAN'S PORT OF CHABAHAR OPENS INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD REFORMING AFGHANISTAN: STRATEGY, OIL AND GOODS

3/9/2019

Chabahar Port Deal Threatens to Capsize Iran Sanctions
Varsha Koduvayur | Senior Research AnalystAndrew Gabel | Research Analyst

JOHN BATCHELOR COVERS AMERICAN'S FOSSIL FUEL NEEDS

3/8/2019

LIBYAN OIL FIELDS: OUTPUT UP POLITICAL CONSOLIDATION ON

3/5/2019

Libya’s largest oil field to resume operations
Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced on Monday that it is reopening its largest oil field. Forces loyal to the eastern Libyan government and to military strongman Gen. Khalifa Hifter took control of the El Sharara field last month. Hifter’s offensive came after local tribesmen seized the field demanding their salaries from the Tripoli-backed NOC. Tripoli said its decision to reopen El Sharara came after it received assurances from Hifter’s forces that all armed groups had left the field. El Sharara normally produces 315,000 barrels of oil per day. Read More 

Tobruk parliamentarian explains south Libya's support for Hifter
In an interview with Al-Monitor, a member of the Tobruk-based parliament talks about Gen. Khalifa Hifter’s operation to cleanse the south from armed gangs and secure oil fields.

Based in the east of Libya, Khalifa Haftar has made no secret of his ambition to capture Tripoli, the northwestern seat of the internationally-recognized government. His threats were long dismissed as bombast, but a lightening advance through the south this year has put Haftar in control of most oil resources and could embolden him to make his much-vaunted final push. – Bloomberg

MEXICAN NARCO-TERROR: FUEL THEFT UNDERWRITING A DOMESTIC INSURGENCY

3/5/2019

GEOPOLITICAL MONITOR

THE MOUNTING CRISIS EATING AWAY AT THE HOUSE OF SAUD & CYPRIAN GAS RESERVE DISCOVERY SCRAMBLES REGIONAL RIVALS

2/28/2019

OILPRICE.COM

Mammoth gas discovery off Cyprus intensifies regional rivalries
Cyprus’ Energy Minister Georgios Lakkotrypis announced on Thursday that ExxonMobil has discovered the third-biggest gas deposit in the world off the coast of the island, which is subject to territorial claims from Turkey. The deposit is southwest of the island, close to Egypt’s territorial waters, and contains anywhere from 142 billion to 227 billion cubic meters of gas. ExxonMobil Vice President Tristan Aspray floated constructing a plant to process the gas on Greek Cyprus. Exxon partners with Qatar Petroleum to carry out exploratory drilling off the Mediterranean island, a point of contention with Turkey despite its alliance with Doha. Read More

While it is unrealistic to expect a dramatic turnaround of an oil-revenue-dependent economy within a few years, it is also hard to imagine how Saudi Arabia can sustain the current rate of expenditure. Finish here.

Saudi Arabia to cut oil exports in April reuters.com

Saudi Gas Export Plan Shines New Light on Efforts to Isolate Iran
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, March 14, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Saudi plans to become a major gas exporter within a decade raise questions about what the real goal of the kingdom’s policy, and by extension that of the US, is towards Iran.
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OPEC oil output falls as Saudi cuts continue

Aramco boosts crown prince's agenda with $10 billion bond to buy Saudi petrochemicals giant
Saudi Aramco will issue its first bond of $10 billion as early as next week, the Wall Street Journal reported today. The bond will shed unprecedented light on the operations of Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company as it seeks to buy a majority stake in Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC), the kingdom’s petrochemicals firm. Riyadh has repeatedly delayed publicly listing Aramco. The move is part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s efforts to modernize and diversfiy the kingdom's oil-based economy. Read More

the southern eurasian gas corridor heats up

2/27/2019

https://www.euractiv.com/section/azerbaijan/news/commission-eager-to-see-the-capacity-of-southern-gas-corridor-doubled/