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OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

AEI'S KAREN YOUNG:  GULF, MENA POLITICAL ECONOMIES AND THE COVID PANDEMIC

4/16/2020

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From the beginning of the Gulf crisis in June 2017, it was clear to the Trump administration that it could do little in terms of direct mediation between Gulf leaders. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) crisis has heralded a time of diminished American diplomatic engagement in the Gulf and a weakening of regional organizations, points out Karen Young in an article for the Arab Center Washington DC. Most dangerous of all, it has weakened the GCC states’ ability to help each other in what will be the greatest economic and demographic challenge since state formation. 
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How Coronavirus Will Impact the Middle East
By Itai Shapira, RealClearDefense: "This might not be an “Arab Spring 2.0,” overthrowing authoritarian regimes, but it will impact the region’s strategic dynamics and reshape its future."
Geneva Centre for Security Policy webinar: The impact of the coronavirus crisis on the Middle East  
Karen E. Young | Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Al Qaeda is rising again, and no one seems to care. It is getting stronger and actively plotting with the Taliban while waiting for the US to leave Afghanistan, notes Katherine Zimmerman in an AEIdeas blog post. Policymakers would be smart not to dismiss al Qaeda’s growth in far-flung corners of the world. Recognizing al Qaeda’s renewed and future threat does not mean that the US must again prioritize counterterrorism over all else. That would be a mistake. Instead, a smart US approach contesting Chinese and Russian influence in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia should simultaneously counter the terrorism threat. Read here.

As economic activity increases, what might recovery look like in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)? In an article for Castlereagh Associates, Karen Young explains that while the UAE has unveiled a series of stimulus measures to support businesses during COVID-19, the economic fallout of the pandemic has taken its toll on consumer behavior. With many of the country’s key sectors heavily affected by the virus and facing a potentially long period of recovery, businesses will need to adapt to new consumer preferences to encourage a rebound in spending. Learn more here.
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