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  • OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

THE SANCTIONS REGIME MOVES ON, IRANIAN STAGFLATION CONTINUES TO RAVAGE & NUCLEAR OPTION AGAINST IRAN

4/24/2019

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  • After oil, Washington weighs sanctions on Iran’s other sources of U.S. dollars
  • "U.S. Aims Lethal Blow at Tehran’s Finances by Prohibiting Oil Exports,"David Adesnik, FDD Policy Brief
The most important issue for predicting whether the US’s upped-economic pressure campaign on Iran will work is probably knowing whether the US and China are about to strike a major deal ending their trade war.If they cut a deal in the coming weeks, the US’ removal of waivers for sanctions against countries who buy Iranian oil could really bring the Islamic Republic’s oil experts to close to zero and force Tehran to cut a new deal. – Jerusalem Post
Forget oil sanctions, end of nuclear cooperation waivers could quietly kill Iran deal
(Al-Monitor) In Arak, a waiver is necessary to enable Iran to redesign its heavy water research reactor in order to “support peaceful nuclear research and radioisotope production for medical and industrial purposes.” The proposed redesigned Arak reactor would vastly cut the potential for a plutonium path to the bomb.
How incompetence, sanctions jointly hit Iran’s economy
Facing stagflation, the Iranian authorities must shift course and de-politicize economic decisions such as foreign exchange policy and management of the country's money supply.
In the 40 years of Iran’s Islamic Republic, 2019 is shaping up to be among the worst for an economy that’s weathered wars, sanctions and oil slumps. Even before the U.S. decided to tighten oil sanctions against Iran last week, the rial currency had lost two thirds of its value against the dollar, and the International Monetary Fund expected gross domestic product to shrink 6 percent. – Bloomberg
Tighter U.S. sanctions against Iran could fuel inflation to the highest level since 1980, according to the International Monetary Fund, as the Islamic Republic’s economy grapples with a weakening currency and tighter U.S. sanctions on oil exports. – Bloomberg
​

Karim Sadjadpour writes: If Khamenei believes he can’t do a deal with Trump, and he fears that waiting out Trump projects weakness, he may contemplate restarting Iran’s nuclear program, counter-escalating against U.S. interests and allies in the Middle East, or both. Iran is the only country in the world simultaneously fighting three proxy wars—against the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia—each of which it could further agitate. – The Atlantic
If President Donald Trump succeeds in cutting Iran’s oil exports to almost nothing, one of the main beneficiaries is likely to be Russia. The economic blow to Iran will ease the Kremlin’s efforts to rein in Iranian influence in Syria, bolstering President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to project Russian power across the Middle East. Tehran and Moscow were one-time collaborators in the region, but they’ve found themselves increasingly at odds as Syria’s eight-year-old civil war winds down. – Bloomberg
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AZERBAIJAN OIL & BP UNEARTH VAST DEPOSITS

4/24/2019

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RUSSIA NORD-STREAM 2 ENCIRCLES & DIVIDES NATO WHILE TEAM TRUMP BRINGS RELIEF TO NATIONS TRADING OIL WITH IRAN

4/18/2019

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U.S. Aims Lethal Blow at Tehran’s Finances by Prohibiting Oil Exports
David Adesnik | Director of Research
Russia’s Gas Web Ensnares Europe
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New pipeline projects throughout the Middle East could boost Russian influence there while also ensuring the country’s role as the prime supplier of energy to Europe.
OPEC has a new best friend: Russia 
US expected to announce end to Iran oil import waivers 
The Donald Trump administration is expected to announce today that it is ending waivers for imports of Iranian oil as of May 2 in the latest escalation of its “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran. The State Department in November issued 180-day waivers to give eight countries a short time window to end their imports. Greece, Italy, and Taiwan have since done so, while China, India, Turkey, Japan and South Korea now must follow suit or face US sanctions. A few of the buyers will be granted short wind-down periods but will not receive further waivers as the United States seeks to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero.  Read More  ​
Tightening the screws on Iran. And . . . ?
Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas 
Sanctions aren’t a goal; they’re tools to get to something else. And it’s high time the president was frank with us about what that something else really is.
US cuts Iran oil waivers in move to force Tehran out of nuclear deal
 Washington is letting sanctions waivers for countries that import Iranian oil expire as it tries to make Iran quit the 2015 nuclear deal before a UN arms embargo is lifted next year as part of the agreement.
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CYPRIOT-GREEK-ISRAELI CRUDE TAKES OFF & WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF GAS IN EASTERN MED.

4/11/2019

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A New EastMed Friendship, with US Support
By Dr. George N. Tzogopoulos, April 10, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The prospective EastMed pipeline would be the flagship project of the Cypriot-Greek-Israeli collaboration, a developing friendship that enjoys deep foundations. The US has now made its support for that partnership official.

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The Eastern Mediterranean and the EU Parliamentary Election
By Dr. Spyridon N. Litsas, May 3, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The states of the Eastern Mediterranean should pay close attention to the upcoming European parliamentary election, as its outcome will influence geostrategic and economic developments in that region. Israel, Cyprus, and Greece will have a major role to play in strengthening Western relationships in the region for decades to come.

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