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  • OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

RUSSIA'S FAILED OPEC+ GAMBLE WITH SAUDI ARABIA & US IRANIAN CALCULATIONS MUST CHANGE

4/17/2020

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Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the USA: Slippery Oil Triangle
By Jonathan Ariel, May 6, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Oil relationships are as unstable and volatile as romantic ones. Following a deadlocked OPEC summit in February, Moscow and Riyadh announced they would ramp up production, sending already low prices tumbling. Since both countries’ budgets are almost entirely dependent on energy exports, this suggests they have decided geopolitical interests trump purely economic ones.

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What oil markets’ ‘bloody Monday’ means for Gulf producers
Karen E. Young | Al-Monitor
Economic Consequences of COVID-19 in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. National Security
The global COVID-19 pandemic will have a dramatic effect on economies across the globe. But the Middle East may be particularly affected, given the simultaneous fall in oil prices. The economic consequences of this pandemic are also likely to affect U.S. interests in the region. Read more »
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Russia’s failed OPEC gamble
Why global oil prices will fall below $10: The twin impacts of the worst global health pandemic in over a century and a price war standoff between the world’s top oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia has driven oil prices to record lows that could soon fall into single dollar digits per barrel. On March 30, spot prices for both global benchmark Brent crude and US-benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to levels not seen since 2002. ​
Iran's Ayatollahs Will Struggle to Survive the Oil Slump by Con Coughlin  
Venezuela: Maduro's Cuban Army  by Lawrence A. Franklin 
Change US Escalation Calculus With Iran
We offer this opinion piece about increasing US responses to Iranian aggression just as President Trump has this morning “instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.” Of course, we don’t know the crucial rules of engagement that will guide Navy…
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AEI'S KAREN YOUNG:  GULF, MENA POLITICAL ECONOMIES AND THE COVID PANDEMIC

4/16/2020

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From the beginning of the Gulf crisis in June 2017, it was clear to the Trump administration that it could do little in terms of direct mediation between Gulf leaders. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) crisis has heralded a time of diminished American diplomatic engagement in the Gulf and a weakening of regional organizations, points out Karen Young in an article for the Arab Center Washington DC. Most dangerous of all, it has weakened the GCC states’ ability to help each other in what will be the greatest economic and demographic challenge since state formation. 
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How Coronavirus Will Impact the Middle East
By Itai Shapira, RealClearDefense: "This might not be an “Arab Spring 2.0,” overthrowing authoritarian regimes, but it will impact the region’s strategic dynamics and reshape its future."
Geneva Centre for Security Policy webinar: The impact of the coronavirus crisis on the Middle East  
Karen E. Young | Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Al Qaeda is rising again, and no one seems to care. It is getting stronger and actively plotting with the Taliban while waiting for the US to leave Afghanistan, notes Katherine Zimmerman in an AEIdeas blog post. Policymakers would be smart not to dismiss al Qaeda’s growth in far-flung corners of the world. Recognizing al Qaeda’s renewed and future threat does not mean that the US must again prioritize counterterrorism over all else. That would be a mistake. Instead, a smart US approach contesting Chinese and Russian influence in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia should simultaneously counter the terrorism threat. Read here.

As economic activity increases, what might recovery look like in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)? In an article for Castlereagh Associates, Karen Young explains that while the UAE has unveiled a series of stimulus measures to support businesses during COVID-19, the economic fallout of the pandemic has taken its toll on consumer behavior. With many of the country’s key sectors heavily affected by the virus and facing a potentially long period of recovery, businesses will need to adapt to new consumer preferences to encourage a rebound in spending. Learn more here.
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OPEC +  WINS; COVID WIPES OUT GULF PETROL-MONARCHIES WHILE VENEZUELA GOES UNDER WITHOUT RUSSIA

4/8/2020

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Is the new OPEC+ deal a win for Russia?
The new OPEC+ deal has some advantages for Russia but some of the potential long-term implications may be dire for Moscow.
What are the medium-term implications of Saudi Arabia’s oil price war with Russia? Ahead of the OPEC+ deal, Karen Young took to Carnegie’s Middle East Diwan blog to argue that without an agreement among all major players to curtail production, the global oil market will be transformed by shut-ins. Protectionist policies could increase, limiting global trade. For Saudi Arabia, the domestic economy will suffer. Across the Gulf Cooperation Council, access to debt markets will hit Bahrain and Oman the hardest. Iraq’s key source of revenue will be devastated, hindering its ability to pay public-sector wages, among other essential obligations. As a result, Iran will likely become more belligerent. Read here.
Energy Markets After Covid-19
It's Time to Close the Arab League  By Dr. Frank Musmar, April 7, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Arab League has been an abject failure on every metric throughout its existence. As it is apparently constitutionally incapable of serving the better interests of its member states, it should be shut down.
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COVID-19 in the Gulf
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Varsha Kodvayur | Senior Research Analyst
John Hardie | Research Manager
Westrop on How Western Governments Empower Islamists by Gary C. Gambill
Middle East Forum Webinar
April 7, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60672/westerners-have-empowered-islamists
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