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  • OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

CHINA, ENERGY AFTER COVID

5/7/2020

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Oil Prices – More Like Post-9/11
The Global Economy’s Fuel Gauge
Oil powers almost all transportation—and Covid-19 will only intensify its dominance.
Saudi Arabia's Problems: Coronavirus, the Economy, and Geopolitics
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, May 18, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Combatting the coronavirus pandemic and coping with its economic fallout may be Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s most immediate challenge. Equally urgent is repairing strained relations with the US and ensuring the kingdom’s competitiveness with Iran as the two rivals compete for China’s favor.

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Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan forewarned his citizens about their economic future post-COVID-19. While the reckoning was bound to come sooner or later, the pandemic has hurried the future along. What then does a drastic reduction in public spending look like in Saudi Arabia? Karen Young took to Al-Monitor to argue that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council states will need to make cuts in megaprojects, defense spending, and public-sector wages as unsustainably large annual deficits have arrived. Learn more here.

Lebanon is on the brink of collapse: People are starving, the nation’s de facto Hezbollah government is still doing Iran’s bidding, and vultures from Beijing are circling. So why do we care? In a Dispatch op-ed, Danielle Pletka argues that if not for the people, for the selfish reason that the country unmanaged would become an operational beachhead for terrorism, a field for great-power rivals, and a black hole from which no good can emanate. If not, Lebanon promises to join the ranks of Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and others in becoming another nexus of global threat and local misery. And Lebanon is well on its way. Read here.

As governments seek to reopen economies from lockdown restrictions, the trajectory of recovery remains unknown. In an op-ed for the King Faisal Center, Karen Young notes that for the Gulf states, economic recovery will depend a great deal on global oil market demand to stabilize. However, for the Gulf states, a lot is on the line in China, and it will be Beijing’s economic recovery that will set the pace for the Gulf. Continue here.
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RUSSIA'S NORD STREAM 2 FINISHED

5/4/2020

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Russia: Nord Stream 2 Pipe-Laying Ship Reaches Baltic.  The Russian pipe-laying vessel Akademik Cherskiy on Sunday was reported to be on the way to the Kaliningrad region to complete construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany.  The project is more than 90 percent complete with about 100 miles of pipeline remaining to be laid along the Baltic Sea near Denmark.  President Vladimir Putin earlier this year said that he expected Nord Stream 2 to be completed by the beginning of 2021.  Bloomberg Reuters RFE/RL
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COVID PANDEMIC SLAUGHTERS PETROL MONARCHIES IN PERSIAN GULF WHILE EXPOSING VULNERABILITIES OF US ENERGY POLICY

5/2/2020

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COMING SOON: Stay tuned for the release of Karen Young’s Gulf Financial Aid and Direct Investment (FADI) Tracker. FADI is an interactive tool with data on development assistance by the Gulf Arab states and their hybrid versions of economic statecraft in commitments of foreign direct investment, state-to-state aid, central bank deposits, and provisions of oil and gas in-kind assistance. In the meantime,  revisit the Gulf Economic Policy Tracker here.
Last week, AEI’s Karen Young hosted a webinar with leading venture capitalists and investors to discuss innovation, global economic resilience, and the investment climate in the Middle East against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic.

Following the panel, Young recalled how panelist Brad Feld talked about the seven kinds of capital that are essential for building a startup community and ecosystem for growth: "Finance is just one kind of capital—the investment in infrastructure (whether digital or actual physical co-working space), intellectual capital, network capital, cultural, and human capital are all just as important. And for that reason, there are multiple ways for governments and people with resources to intervene and make start-up communities thrive, wherever they may be globally.” US foreign policy in a post-COVID-19 world must attend to the varying capital needs of competitors to protect our interests and allies. This begs the question: What are the silver linings for US innovation and investment wrought by this pandemic? Moreover, how can we capitalize on these to secure America's socioeconomic future? Rewatch the webinar here.
UAE announces cabinet shakeup amid coronavirus pandemic 
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced a major Cabinet reshuffle on Sunday as the Gulf country grapples with a slow economic growth amid the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices. UAE Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum said the move aimed to create a “government that is faster in decision-making and is more up to date with changes.” A new Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology was created and Sultan al-Jaber, head of Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company, was appointed as its head. Meanwhile, the Ministries of Energy and Infrastructure were merged. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the economy in the oil-dependent country will contract by 3.5% in 2020. The Emirates ended its virus-related curfew late last month and allowed many businesses to reopen. 
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apnews.com
Is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia a Vital Ally?
By Gil Barndollar, RealClearDefense: "Saudi Arabia’s problem with America, unpopularity aside, is twofold. Saudi Arabia’s oil is less important than it used to be, while the Kingdom’s military weakness makes it a clear security liability."
Moises Rendon, Antonio De La Cruz, and Claudia Fernandez write: Iran and Venezuela are still cooperating much less than they did during Chávez years. […]The countries’ efforts to revive Venezuela’s refineries, moreover, will hinge primarily on their ability to carry out technical upgrades without delays, corruption, and mismanagement. As the countries’ long list of failed partnerships indicates, that is unlikely. – Center for Strategic and International Studies ​
Saudi Arabia braces for economic impact
Karen E. Young | Al-Monitor
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Coronavirus and the Arab Culture of Secrecy
By Dr. Edy Cohen, May 1, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The quality of healthcare systems in the Arab world varies from country to country. Egypt and Sudan are considered to have the worst, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia are seen as having the most advanced. Whether their domestic health services are high quality or not, many Arab leaders and members of the elites routinely address their personal health needs outside the region, usually going to Western countries for the purpose. The health status of Arab leaders is treated as a closely guarded secret.

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COVID-19 in Qatar
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Varsha Koduvayur | Senior Research Analyst
Report: Trump threatened to remove US troops from Saudi if no oil production cut
 Trump told the Saudi Crown Prince that US troops would leave Saudi Arabia if OPEC did not cut production, according to a new report.
Oman’s sovereign wealth fund under pressure
 Ahead of the prospect of a high budget deficit in 2020, assets held by the State General Reserve Fund (SGRF) plunged by about a third to $14.3 billion.
Historic Oil Price Crash Highlights Holes in U.S. Energy Security
Varsha Koduvayur | Senior Research Analyst
Mohammed Soliman writes: While the GCC states have not yet transformed from oil-powered economies to fully diversified ones, the reforms carried out and the institutional investments made across the Gulf in the 2010s paved the way for the region’s strong digital response to the pandemic and its fallout. […]Other countries in the Middle East would do well to learn from the Gulf’s digital investments when preparing for the future. – Middle East Institute
He elaborated that in The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, the Jews laid out their plan to take over the world and gain control of people’s minds by means of the media and the press. He said that it was thus “only natural” for the Jews to take control of the cinema and he claimed that cinema, soccer, the press, casinos, night clubs, and global advertising agencies are all run and owned by Jews. – Middle East Media Research Institute
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    Southwest Asian political economy analyst, Radio & Media Personality. 

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