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  • OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

OIL - ENERGY MARKETS

HOW CHINA & GERMANY REMAIN ENGERY INDEPENDENT?

6/5/2020

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Image:  Major existing and planned natural oil and gas pipelines supplying Russian oil and gas to Europe. Public domain.  

Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs, in re:  The energy re-think in the balance of the Twenty-first Century. Russia in a superior position.  Hard to see how, and it’s unlikely that, Russia will be displaced in oil, gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric. Sophisticated energy structure.  Its gas will save PRC.  Russia is now the most advanced in the world in selling nuclear.  Russia is a very stable player because its industries are controlled by the Kremlin. The last thirty years: free trade meant that the world gave its mfrg to China; we all became dependent on it. Now, China is becoming existentially dependent on Russia, incl for LNG.  China is equally dependent on China for food from the USA and elsewhere.  Russia has been a critical supplier of defense and space for China.  

The one thing Riyadh asked of Moscow as to keep Teheran off its back, which Russia has not done. Russia’s ma ally is Iran; is the geopolitical linchpin in the Middle East and Central Asia.  Saudi is a dwindling power.   Germany abandoned nukes out of morality; is wholly dependent on Russia for power.  The Russia-US competition visible in Belgrade, where intell services abound.  Russia succeeding in Germany and Serbia which the US has treated badly.  Squared off in Montenegro.
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THE AYATOLLAH'S OIL & libya's lost revenue

6/2/2020

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Libya says oil blockade has cost $5 billion in lost revenue
 The Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation said the closure of oil facilities in January has led to billions in losses.
Are the foreign patrons of the Libyan war ready to end it?
Absent major military escalation by his foreign patrons, Khalifa Hifter has now lost the war he initiated against Libya’s internationally recognized government in Tripoli. The question remains, however, of how to end Libya’s proxy war and restart the necessary political process to bring about sustained peace. A sustainable end to the proxy war would have to address arms shipments by land through Egypt and from Sudan involving Russia and/or the UAE, as well as Turkish shipments by sea, and transport by air of military materiel by the principal patrons of the war. It would also have to address the respective parties’ asserted economic interests in Libya, including Turkey backing off from its plans to begin drilling for oil in the eastern Mediterranean in derogation of other — especially Greek — interests.
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https://gcaptain.com/first-of-five-iranian-tankers-docks-in-venezuela
How the battle over energy will reshape Eurasia relationships
One of the driving forces behind Turkey’s Libya policy is a desire to redraw the maritime boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean established by Greece’s agreements with Egypt and Cyprus.The conflict between Turkey and the anti-Turkey bloc is hurting everyone’s energy interests, making investment in the region costlier for energy companies. Without compromises, everyone stands to lose.
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Natural gas in the Black Sea: Strengthening cooperation and balancing power
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia used its dominant position as a natural gas supplier to wield outsized influence in the region. But recent changes in the natural gas market have eroded that dominance. Under increasingly globalized natural gas markets, Russia has been losing its ability to use its dominance as a gas supplier to influence the region. 
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    Southwest Asian political economy analyst, Radio & Media Personality. 

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