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RUSSIA BECOMES CHINA'S PETROL KING

3/9/2023

STRATEGIC COMMENTS

When Energy Markets And Geopolitics Collide
by Victoria Coates via The Caravan
In the summer of 2020, the usually discrete spheres of energy markets and geopolitics collided when Chevron Corporation announced it was buying Noble Energy for five billion dollars—a deal that meant every bit as much to establishing a sustainable peace in the Middle East as the Abraham Accords signed some six weeks later on the lawn of the White House by Israel, Bahrain, the UAE and the United States.

U.S. A WEAK GRID

2/15/2023

The States Power Down
Ambitious renewables mandates by local governments are eroding the electric grid’s reliability, with alarming consequences.

Meanwhile, some parts of the country face an energy deficit.

Earlier this week, The Atlantic featured a long-form piece on how challenges with nuclear energy have shifted away from environmental activist opposition (“nuclear greens” are on the rise) and into the nuclear industry itself. For City Journal, James B. Miegs sets forth the challenges underlying nuclear power’s return to prominence.

Ending Global Reliance on Russia’s Nuclear Energy Sector

GOP Pushes Tougher China Dual-Use Sanctions
By Bryant Harris, Defense News: “Republicans are using their brand-new House majority to push for tougher China sanctions enforcement on dual-use equipment even as the Biden administration greatly expands sweeping new export controls on U.S. technology that could be used by the Chinese military."

Record Defense Budget Flunks the China Test
By Jeffrey Jeb Nadaner, RealClearDefense: "While most lines of that $858 billion defense appropriation are necessary, it fails in its totality."

Denial May Bring War – Punishment May Keep It at Bay
From CDR Salamander:"don't threaten the PRC with an easy war"

HOW U.S. REMAINS ENERGY POWERHOUSE STILL

1/13/2023

Watch Here
INTEGRATE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN REGION

JAMES B. MEIGS
Delayed Reaction
Nuclear power mounts a comeback, but obstacles remain.

GERMANY WANTS OUT OF WAR, SQUEEZED BY RUSSIAN OIL

1/8/2023

BIDEN SCREWS AMERICA

1/4/2023

Biden Tanks U.S. Energy Economy
Jordan McGillis, The American Spectator

2022 in review: The year that broke US relations with OPEC+

Israel expected to increase natural gas drilling in 2023

2022 in review: Turkey wraps up year of regional resets but more whiplash ahead

Oman banking on hydrogen, renewables in diversified energy strategy

US top Middle East commander tests new model of deterring Iran

PUTIN'S BET: THE WEST WANTS OUT; OIL PRICE DOWN FOR SAUDI AMBITIONS

12/7/2022

Oil prices fall to lowest level since January, despite Saudi-backed production cut
The price decrease could be worrisome for Saudi Arabia and its investment plans.

Key Flaws Hamstring Russia Oil Price Cap

The Russian oil debacle

Egypt embarks on new plans to develop river transport on Nile River
Cairo has recently passed legal reforms to reorganize the river sector, which still remains marginal, in hopes this will catalyze much-needed private investments

As US watches, China and Saudi Arabia shy away from defense deals during Xi's visit
Pentagon officials are closely watching what deals result from the Chinese president's meetings with Arab leaders.

ENERGY AFTER RENEWABLES

11/28/2022

energy disorder continues globally

10/30/2022

MARK P. MILLS
Can American Producers Head Off Looming Oil Shortages?
A legislative embrace of policies allowing increased hydrocarbon production could move world energy markets.

MOTHER RUSSIA REMAINS GERMANY'S WINTER OF DISCONTENT

8/17/2022

Europe Is Losing the Energy War
Here’s how the continent can fight back.

The Weaponization of Capital

Germany Takes Control of Russian-Owned Refineries Amid Energy Crisis
The German government seized control of three refineries (FT) owned by Russian oil company Rosneft before a European Union embargo on Russian crude oil takes effect in December. Operations at the refineries were disrupted (WSJ) after some banks and firms stopped doing business with Rosneft amid Western sanctions. Rosneft accounts for about 12 percent of Germany’s oil refining capacity.

Germany has worked to ensure its energy security and control soaring energy prices ahead of the embargo, passing a law to bring back coal-fired power plants, among other actions. It is also considering taking over three of its largest gas companies, Bloomberg reported.

“The Schwedt refinery [one of the three seized] was the biggest obstacle to Germany accepting the ban on Russian oil imports because thousands of jobs in the region depend on it,” the Wall Street Journal’s Georgi Kantchev and Bojan Pancevski write.

“The first German companies have begun throwing in the towel and consumption is collapsing in response to the fallout from exploding energy prices. The economy is sliding almost uncontrolled into a crisis that could permanently weaken the country,” Der Spiegel writes.
This video looks at Europe’s energy bind.

A ‘Coalition Of The Drilling’ Can Starve Putin’s Petrodollars

The U.S. Needs a Safe, Sane Energy Policy

RUSSIAN STATECRAFT: OIL IS A WEAPON

7/27/2022

Why Putin Invaded Ukraine

Marathon Initiative's Elbridge Colby: America must prepare for a war over Taiwan

The Impact Of Geography On Long-Run Economic Development

VDH Discusses Raymond Ibrahim’s New Book On The History Of Islam

America's Strategic Oil Reserves by Lawrence Kadish

EGYPT, AN ENERGY POWERHOUSE?

7/22/2022

GEOECONOMICS, US STATECRAFT DEFEATING RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS

Spring 2022 Issue

Egypt as an Eastern Mediterranean power in the age of energy transition
The emergence of Egypt as an Eastern Mediterranean energy hub resulted from a culmination of years of deliberate efforts. Increasingly, Egypt will be able to re-export Israeli natural gas or convert it into blue hydrogen, generate green electricity for export, or utilize its growing wind and solar power capacity to produce green hydrogen.
Read article

Turkey and Sudan: An enduring relationship?
Jihad Mashamoun

Germany Bails Out Gas Importer Uniper. German gas importer Uniper received a state bailout of 15 billion euros ($15.2 billion) after reduced Russian gas supplies crippled the company. As part of the bailout, the German government will take a 30 percent stake in Uniper. Uniper’s majority share-holder Fortum, a Finnish energy firm, will hold 56 percent in the company down from 80 percent currently. Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle

Russia Denies Pipeline Turbine In Transit. Russia on Friday rejected a Reuters report that a turbine for the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is stuck in transit. The report alleges that Moscow has yet to approve the return of the turbine from Germany to Russia. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the report “nonsense” and “groundless.” Russia blames reductions in gas flows through the pipeline on the turbine, which was in Canada for repairs and initially blocked by Western sanctions. Germany instead says Russia is using gas as a political weapon. Bloomberg Reuters

RUSSIAN ENERGY POLICY AFTER GERMANY

7/14/2022

U.S. STILL AN ENERGY SUPERPOWER? AND WHY IS THE U.S. HELPING ASSAD WITH GAS

6/22/2022

Biden’s Green Hypocrisy

Running on Empty

Reality bites Biden

Resetting US-Gulf Ties

U.S.-Backed Gas Deal Will Benefit Assad Regime

U.S. LNG SURGES; RUSSIA, LOSING OIL CONTRACTS AND CUSTOMERS

4/21/2022

US REGULATORY CAPTURE CONTINUES

2/25/2022

Halt The EPA’s Takeover Of Energy Markets

Meanwhile, energy consumers around the globe continue to feel a squeeze. U.S. natural gas production has slowed over the past few months despite supply shortages. Across the pond, UK lawmakers have offered energy-intensive industries a relief package after the country experienced a massive uptick in energy costs. However, soaring energy bills for businesses and families alike has not discouraged a bipartisan group of lawmakers from proposing a “border carbon adjustment” tariff. Writing for City Journal, Mark Mills criticizes that proposal as one that would fuel inflation at a particularly terrible time while not addressing its purported climate-related goals. Instead, Mills points to next-generation nuclear power and other technological innovation as a more viable path toward addressing the country’s energy needs.

US REMAINS LEADER IN LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS EXPORTS

1/6/2022

EUROPE'S WINTER OF DISCONTENT EMERGING FAST: NATURAL GAS SHORTAGES MOUNTING

10/3/2021

Pump Politics
The Biden administration has floundered over how to respond to rising gas prices—but a solution to the problem is simple.

Europe and UK Gas Shortage May Accelerate Inflation
Allison Schrager, E21

Europe and the UK are experiencing a gas shortage that threatens to undermine its goals, and wide-spread support, for a zero-emissions future. It also leaves them more dependent on Russia. Energy operates in global markets, which means gas prices in the US are also on the rise. Read more here....

BIDEN TURNS LEFT ON ENERGY POLICY

2/6/2021

Oil prices continue to rise as Saudi Arabia and Russia talk production
The price of Brent crude continued to increase above its pre-pandemic levels during the OPEC+ meeting Thursday.

Germany's Empty Pipeline Logic
by Josef Joffe via Project Syndicate
Nord Stream 2, the almost-finished pipeline running directly from Russia to Germany, is not really about securing cheap natural gas. It is about personal gain and these two countries’ national interest.

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/536305-the-biden-administration-needs-an-energy-reality-check

Energy Policy Insight
featuring Admiral James O. Ellis Jr., Michael J. Boskin, James L. Sweeney, Daniel Heil
Over the last quarter century, the United States has experienced a dramatic transformation. With little fanfare, an energy revolution has occurred that has profoundly altered the nation’s economy, its national security, and its environment.

NORD STREAM 2 & BIDEN'S TEST OF HIS FOREIGN POLICY METTLE

2/1/2021

"Nord Stream 2 Sanctions Present an Early Test for the Biden Administration,"
Matthew Zweig and John Hardie, FDD Policy Brief

MAP OF STATE OWNED OIL

1/12/2021

VC

SAUDI ARAMCO PLUNGES FAST & WHAT'S AFTER OIL FOR PETROL MONARCHIES POST COVID

11/4/2020

Saudi Aramco sees massive drop in third quarter profits
The Saudi oil giant's slump is indicative of the crisis in Middle Eastern and global oil as the COVID-19 pandemic continues.

JONATHAN A. LESSER
The “Transition from Oil” and Other Fairy Tales
Politicians promising a painless switch to renewables are deluding themselves—or more likely you.

Russia, Iraq face OPEC+ cuts, look to new deals
While Iraq's dependence on imported Iranian electricity continues to worry Washington, the key to breaking this energy dependence lies in the development of its own gas fields.

Gulf economies face major challenges in post-COVID 19 world
Signals indicate the embargo imposed on Qatar could come to an end, but can the Gulf Cooperation Council play a coordinating role vital to diversify Gulf economies post-pandemic?

ISRAEL MOVES AHEAD WITH EASTERN MED OIL PICK

10/16/2020

Ephraim Sneh writes: The practical sides of this alliance are Israel’s import of half of its demand of crude oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, and the export of $5 billion in sophisticated Israeli military equipment, according to President Ilham Aliyev’s public statement. But the alliance is not about oil and arms. Azerbaijan, with its vast majority Shi’ite Muslim population, aspires to be a secular, modern, enlightened independent state. Neither of its neighbors agree that Azerbaijan should have all these attributes together. Israel is the country that fully supports all the aspirations of the Azerbaijan people and government. – Jerusalem Post

TURKEY RETURNS TO THE EAST MED & BLACK SEA FOR OIL

10/15/2020

Turkey: Ankara Raises Black Sea Gas Estimates. Turkey has raised the estimated reserves in a gas field off its Black Sea coast after finding an additional 22,500 billion gallons approximately 100 nautical miles north of the Turkish coast. The discovery could transform Turkey’s dependence on Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan for energy imports, as last year’s imports totaled more than $41B. Turkey expects the first gas flow from the field in 2023. Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle

Turkey resumes energy research in disputed waters
ISTANBUL — A Turkish seismic research ship escorted by naval frigates began energy prospecting activities Wednesday in contested tracts of the eastern Mediterranean, renewing disputes between Ankara and Athens over maritime boundaries.
Following a brief pause for maintenance, Turkey’s Oruc Reis vessel redeployed Monday and reached an area near the Greek island of Kastellorizo two miles off the Turkish coast, where it began conducting gas discovery activities Wednesday, according to Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez.
Read Full Article

Chevron's Deal for Noble Energy Marks a Major Shift in Mideast
By JONATHAN TOBIN, Special to the Sun | October 14, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/chevrons-deal-for-noble-energy-marks-a-major/91297/

OILCRAFT: How the myths of scarcity and security haunt U.S. energy policy and keep it tied to the puppet strings of the House of Saud.

8/24/2020

Fiscal sustainability and social cohesion in the face of demographic change
Karen E. Young et al. | T20 Saudi Arabia

Creative destruction works unless undermined by crony capitalism
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

Iran at Risk From Spillover of Armenia-Azerbaijan Clashes
Brenda Shaffer | Senior Advisor for Energy

Critical Minerals and New Geopolitics
Sophia Kalantzakos, Project Syndicate

The Myth of the Great Energy Transformation
Mark Mills, Manhattan Institute
For those who profess the belief that a great “energy transition” is underway, Tesla is the talisman. And why not? No single product that we use in everyday life consumes more energy than a car. The furnace in the average home basement is a distant second, and there are far more cars than homes. The car, with its ubiquity and importance, epitomizes how and why energy is used everywhere. It also epitomizes just how difficult and expensive it will be. Read more here.... (Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

‘the_new_map’_review__tapping_the_untappable_-_wsj.pdf
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The Value of the U.S.-Saudi Relations
By Clare M. Lopez, RealClearDefense: "Changes underway within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's leadership are significant and substantive. It is in the U.S. national security interest to acknowledge and encourage those changes, even while urging more progress in areas that concern America’s ethical foundations, like human rights."

How Western Institutions Benefit from Corrupt Islamists in Saudi Arabia
By Irina Tsukerman, August 27, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The recent revelations about Sa’ad Jabri, an Islamist and corrupt former Saudi intelligence officer, highlight the discrepancy between Western institutions’ criticism of Saudi Arabia in the name of human rights and their support for the former officials most responsible for human rights abuses and security threats associated with the Kingdom. A tangled web of relations between pro-Brotherhood Muhammad bin Nayef regime apparatchiks, pro-Qatar members of US law enforcement (like Ali Soufan), and ideologically sympathetic intermediaries (like Jamal Khashoggi) are threatened by Muhammad bin Salman’s reforms.
Continue to full article ->

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Turkey’s new gas find in the Black Sea won’t save the economy
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

Pulling Back the Curtain on Turkey’s Natural Gas Strategy by John V. Bowlus

How Mediterranean standoff complicates Turkey's natural gas agenda
Too many factors — especially tensions with Greece — are at play to determine whether recent gas discovery in the Black Sea will translate into massive commercial and political gains for Ankara.

In the Era of U.S. Energy Abundance: The Role of the Caspian Region in U.S. Policy

BEIJING NEEDS OIL, SO IT DOMINATES VENEZUELA & THE ARMENIA-AZERBAIJANI CONFLICT HITS EURO ENERGY MARKETS BADLY

7/17/2020

Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Poses Threat to European Energy Security
Brenda Shaffer | Senior Advisor for Energy