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Turkey's Open Secret: Fake Secularism by Burak Bekdil •
Putin to visit Turkey for natural gas pipeline launch
Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Turkey on Jan. 8 to participate in the launch of a natural gas pipeline from Russia, the Kremlin announced Monday. TurkStream's first line will supply gas to the Turkish market, while a second line will pass through the country to Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia to supply gas to some 15 million homes in southern and southeastern Europe. Read More dailysabah.com MADURO PLUNDERS CITGO, INFOGRAPHICS ON US SURGE IN OIL/GAS & FLAT DEMAND FOR PERSIAN GULF OIL11/4/2019
More US energy milestones: 12 new production records were set in August for natural gas and oil
Mark J. Perry | AEIdeas  Russia’s 'multilayered pie’ policy on Libya
For all the uncertainty surrounding Russia's presence in Libya, there are some policy drivers to be watched.
Saudi Arabia: Riyadh to Cooperate with United States on Global Energy Security. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister met with U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry on Monday and discussed oil markets, the role of OPEC, and stability in the global energy supply. The Saudi energy minister also met with his Nigerian counterpart, stressing Saudi Arabia’s role in energy security on the world stage. Reuters U.S. News and World Report
James Ellis On The Energy Density Advantage Of Nuclear Power
by Admiral James O. Ellis Jr. via PolicyEd Nuclear power has an energy density advantage over every other method of generating electricity.
Zvi Bar’el writes: For Iran, Iraq’s economic dependence is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it gives the Islamic Republic great influence over Iraqi politics. But on the other, this makes Iraqis view it as the source of their problems and not just economic ones. […]Iraq’s decision to abide by American sanctions on Iran even though it opposes them shows how detached Westerners are from reality when they view all Shi’ite groups as agents of Iran.- Haaretz
Nord Stream II and Europe's strategic autonomy
The European Union's gas relationship with Russia remains controversial within Europe, with opponents portraying the Nord Stream II project as aggression against Ukraine, a danger to Central and Eastern Europe and a reflection of Germany's dependence on Russian gas.
Why U.S. Patriot Missiles Failed to Protect Saudi Oil Sites
By Sébastien Roblin, NBC News: "The U.S. is having trouble defending against low-flying drones and cruise missiles after years of the Pentagon focusing on longer-range threats."
Attacks on Saudi oil plants reveal weaknesses in US-made defenses
(Military.com) Ground-hugging swarms of drones and cruise missiles that decimated Saudi oil production facilities this month did billions’ worth of damage and defeated U.S.-made air-defense systems, including Raytheon's Patriots. The attacks raise concerns, analysts say, about the efficacy of such defense systems against the threat. 
Saudi oil facility attack challenges Washington’s credibility
Karen E. Young | Al-Monitor While the recent attacks on two Saudi oil facilities will affect global oil prices, it is the US commitment in the region that is under attack.
Iran's Strategy Behind the Saudi Attack
By Raymond V. Mason, RealClearDefense: “A possible Iranian link to the attack on a Saudi oil installation this past weekend is the latest example of Iran’s continued ability to threaten American interests in the Middle East despite robust U.S. sanctions. While the administration is applying maximum economic pressure, sanctions alone will not force Iran to the table and are insufficient to address resulting Iranian retaliation."
The Gulf Crisis Should Remind Us of the Importance of Fracking
Charles Lane, Washington Post The Oil Price Increase and the Dollar Desmond Lachman, AEI
Iran’s strike on Saudi Arabia brings Persian Gulf war closer
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner The Iraq War surge Stephen J. Hadley and Hal Brands | AEI video
Out of the Loop: What the Saudi Attacks Tell Us About the Future of Conflict
By Eliot Pence, RealClearDefense: "The Abqaiq attacks this month raised many questions. Who did it? How did they do it? What did they do it with? One question was notably absent: Why couldn't Saudi Arabia stop it? The answer is not straightforward, nor is it necessarily clear that anything could have stopped it." Saudi Aramco raises $25.6 billion in largest-ever IPO Saudi Arabia's state oil company Aramco broke market records with the launch of its initial stock offering on Thursday. Shares were priced at the high end of the target range and raised a record $25.6 billion. The market debut puts Aramco's value at $1.7 trillion, far ahead of other corporate giants. Aramco is expected to begin trading on Riyadh's Tadawul exchange on Dec. 12 at 32 riyals ($8.53). Read More al-monitor.com Huge Aramco IPO hounded by big ifs Institutional investors have questions over the company's transparency and governance BYPIERRE DONADIEU    UAE diversification strategy lags despite growth in oil sector
Karen E. Young | Al-Monitor The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a leader in economic diversification across the Gulf Cooperation Council, but even the UAE is struggling to grow.
COLIN A. CARTER, HENRY I. MILLER
Giving In to Big Corn Consumers will suffer the hangover from the EPA’s ethanol binge.
How Russian business could shape Mideast's future security architecture
Russia has been engaged in the Levantine oil and gas sectors for some time, but now Moscow could use that foothold to help build lasting security in the region. PIPELINE POLITICS: NORD STREAM PUSHES FORTH FOR RUSSIA, HARD CURRENCY AND POLITICAL DISRUPTION6/30/2019
нефть: The Impact of Russian Energy on Europe
By Jeremiah Goodpaster, Small Wars Journal: “The use of energy plays a significant role in Russia’s political subversion, coercive deterrence, and negotiated manipulation aspects during Hybrid Warfare operations in Europe. The use of energy to allows Russia to stay below the threshold of violence and the possible activation of Article 5 Collective Security of the NATO charter."  Eastern Mediterranean heats up as gas rivalry stakes grow higher Turkey’s launch of a second ship to drill in disputed areas off Cyprus is the harbinger of further escalation in the eastern Mediterranean and tough choices for Ankara. Simon Henderson writes: Israel is also looking for companies that can explore its waters for more gas. Although a deadline for bids on nineteen offshore blocks has been pushed back to mid-August, perhaps reflecting a lack of investor interest, Israeli officials are reportedly still hopeful that ExxonMobil will bite. For now, the U.S. company has shown more interest in Cypriot blocks, as have European companies like Total of France and Eni of Italy. The latter two companies are also interested in exploring Lebanon’s waters, despite the country’s dysfunctional government, broken electricity supply network, and intrusive Iranian influence – Washington Institute Eastern Mediterranean crisis balloons as Turkish drill ships multiply
Disputes over oil and gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean have caused a spike in tensions between Ankara and Turkish Cypriots on the one side, and the EU and Greek Cypriots on the other.  
Saudi Arabia’s new ‘freedom’ gas
Karen E. Young | Al-Monitor According to the Department of Energy, US policy will support the export of American energy products such as liquefied natural gas as “molecules of US freedom” to the rest of the world. But energy markets are a little more complicated and less nationalistic.
Turkmenistan https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.urdupoint.com/en/amp/business/turkmenistan-hosts-x-international-gas-congre-631340.html
Nord Stream https://www.neweurope.eu/article/us-sanctions-may-be-too-late-to-stop-nord-stream-2-construction/ Contamination https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1ST1TX
Karen Young in an Al-Monitor op-ed. America’s energy independence attracts competitors, such as Saudi Aramco, as foreign direct investors. And it is unlikely that the American “freedom gas” exported by Aramco will find its way to Saudi Arabia. Find out why here.
 The shale revolution isn't just about cheap energy; it's changing geopolitics Mark J. Perry | Washington Examiner Want an Energy Revolution? It Won't Come from Renewables
Mark Mills, City Journal Throughout history, some 60 percent to 90 percent of every nation’s economy has been consumed by food and fuel costs. Hydrocarbons changed the way that humans organize their productive capacity. The coal age, followed by the oil age, and now by the ascendant age of natural gas, has (at least for developed nations) driven the share of GDP devoted to acquiring food and fuel down to around 10 percent. That transformation constitutes one of the great pivots for civilization. Read more here.... 
Reports: Iran to adopt countermeasures as US revokes sanctions waivers
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will reportedly announce countermeasures to the US exit from the JCPOA and its reimposition of sanctions.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, cut June pricing for all crude grades to the U.S. and raised most pricing to other regions. The kingdom’s pricing appears to be aimed at easing concerns over supplies to the U.S. after the Trump Administration ended waivers for buyers of Iranian oil, while still benefiting from rising demand for its crude in Asia and Europe. – Bloomberg
Iran Gives Europe Sixty Days to Meet Nuclear Demands
by Seth Frantzman The Jerusalem Post May 9, 2019 https://www.meforum.org/58442/iran-gives-europe-60-days-to-meet-demands
New Sanctions Hit Iran’s Multi-Billion Dollar Metal Industries
Saeed Ghasseminejad | Senior Iran and Financial Economics AdvisorMatthew Zweig | Senior Fellow
Energy Sector Waivers Would Undermine the Maximum Pressure Campaign against Iran
Matthew Zweig | Senior Fellow  THE SANCTIONS REGIME MOVES ON, IRANIAN STAGFLATION CONTINUES TO RAVAGE & NUCLEAR OPTION AGAINST IRAN4/24/2019
The most important issue for predicting whether the US’s upped-economic pressure campaign on Iran will work is probably knowing whether the US and China are about to strike a major deal ending their trade war.If they cut a deal in the coming weeks, the US’ removal of waivers for sanctions against countries who buy Iranian oil could really bring the Islamic Republic’s oil experts to close to zero and force Tehran to cut a new deal. – Jerusalem Post
Forget oil sanctions, end of nuclear cooperation waivers could quietly kill Iran deal
(Al-Monitor) In Arak, a waiver is necessary to enable Iran to redesign its heavy water research reactor in order to “support peaceful nuclear research and radioisotope production for medical and industrial purposes.” The proposed redesigned Arak reactor would vastly cut the potential for a plutonium path to the bomb.
How incompetence, sanctions jointly hit Iran’s economy
Facing stagflation, the Iranian authorities must shift course and de-politicize economic decisions such as foreign exchange policy and management of the country's money supply.
In the 40 years of Iran’s Islamic Republic, 2019 is shaping up to be among the worst for an economy that’s weathered wars, sanctions and oil slumps. Even before the U.S. decided to tighten oil sanctions against Iran last week, the rial currency had lost two thirds of its value against the dollar, and the International Monetary Fund expected gross domestic product to shrink 6 percent. – Bloomberg
Tighter U.S. sanctions against Iran could fuel inflation to the highest level since 1980, according to the International Monetary Fund, as the Islamic Republic’s economy grapples with a weakening currency and tighter U.S. sanctions on oil exports. – Bloomberg
Karim Sadjadpour writes: If Khamenei believes he can’t do a deal with Trump, and he fears that waiting out Trump projects weakness, he may contemplate restarting Iran’s nuclear program, counter-escalating against U.S. interests and allies in the Middle East, or both. Iran is the only country in the world simultaneously fighting three proxy wars—against the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia—each of which it could further agitate. – The Atlantic
If President Donald Trump succeeds in cutting Iran’s oil exports to almost nothing, one of the main beneficiaries is likely to be Russia. The economic blow to Iran will ease the Kremlin’s efforts to rein in Iranian influence in Syria, bolstering President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to project Russian power across the Middle East. Tehran and Moscow were one-time collaborators in the region, but they’ve found themselves increasingly at odds as Syria’s eight-year-old civil war winds down. – Bloomberg
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January 2021
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