The Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation said the closure of oil facilities in January has led to billions in losses.
Absent major military escalation by his foreign patrons, Khalifa Hifter has now lost the war he initiated against Libya’s internationally recognized government in Tripoli. The question remains, however, of how to end Libya’s proxy war and restart the necessary political process to bring about sustained peace. A sustainable end to the proxy war would have to address arms shipments by land through Egypt and from Sudan involving Russia and/or the UAE, as well as Turkish shipments by sea, and transport by air of military materiel by the principal patrons of the war. It would also have to address the respective parties’ asserted economic interests in Libya, including Turkey backing off from its plans to begin drilling for oil in the eastern Mediterranean in derogation of other — especially Greek — interests.
One of the driving forces behind Turkey’s Libya policy is a desire to redraw the maritime boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean established by Greece’s agreements with Egypt and Cyprus.The conflict between Turkey and the anti-Turkey bloc is hurting everyone’s energy interests, making investment in the region costlier for energy companies. Without compromises, everyone stands to lose.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia used its dominant position as a natural gas supplier to wield outsized influence in the region. But recent changes in the natural gas market have eroded that dominance. Under increasingly globalized natural gas markets, Russia has been losing its ability to use its dominance as a gas supplier to influence the region.