The Dwindling Strategic Flame: Reviving Creative Defense Planning
By Phillip Dolitsky, Military Strategy Magazine: “Strategy and defense planning belong to the realm of the unknown. There is nothing as certain as the uncertainty of the future and yet all polities depend on their safety and survival by striving to meet the challenge of uncertainty.” The U.S. Military Is Quietly Reinventing Itself on the Great Lakes By Jerry Hendrix, National Review: “As some of the world’s largest inland seas, the lakes provide the United States with an opportunity similar to that found at Area 51.”
Russia’s Post-War Military Recruiting Strategy Emerges by Dara Massicot
How will Russia recruit the next generation of professional enlisted soldiers and officers, having sustained an estimated 350,000 casualties in Ukraine since 2022?
History and Perspective in Statecraft with Susan Colbourn and Simon Miles
Susan and Simon discussed how different concepts of history have shaped the war in Ukraine and how students of international affairs should challenge their assumptions and embrace uncertainty. The Army Wants You to Write. Three Soldiers Explain Why with Zachary Griffiths, Emily Lopez, Leyton Summerlin, and Ryan Evans Three soldiers — one non-commissioned officer and two officers — join Ryan to discuss why professional writing is crucial in the U.S. Army.
Beyond Fusion: Preparing for Systems Rivalry
by Liza Tobin, Addis Goldman, and Katherine Kurata China’s military-civil fusion strategy effectively blends private sector innovation with centralized oversight, blurring the lines between top-down direction and bottom-up initiative.
The Dwindling Strategic Flame: Reviving Creative Defense Planning
Phillip Dolitsky In this essay, I argue that there has been a decline of late to "think about the unthinkable" when it comes to matters of military strategy. One sees this, for instance, in the Israeli failure to ever consider retaking the Gaza Strip and ousting Hamas from power following the disengagement in 2005, and with the current type of discourse surrounding a looming conflict with China. Drawing on my love and study of chess, I argue that what's needed is a renaissance of the type of thinking that characterized much of Cold War strategic thinking, where strategists considered the unthinkable. Read Now 3 Steps Towards Fixing the Acquisition Insanity at the Pentagon By John Ferrari, Breaking Defense: “It’s often said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result.”
How Washington Can Save its Semiconductor Controls on China by Ben Noon Americans are largely still allowed to sell technology, capital, and know-how to China’s growing machine tool companies. Washington should restrict these commercial partnerships to ensure its export controls survive. Leadership Lessons From Our Top Presidents
with Talmage Boston The Clements Center for National Security, the LBJ Presidential Library and the UT-Austin History Department hosted Talmage for a book talk on How the Best Did It: Leadership Lessons From Our Top Presidents.
Three Surprises in the US Military’s Wish Lists
Elaine McCusker and John G. Ferrari | Defense News As there are two major wars ongoing, several shadow wars, and the potential for a major conflict with China, we can expect the Pentagon may also have a fiscal year 2025 emergency supplemental in the works. Even with this context, the unfunded priorities lists contained several interesting surprises. Full Story
U.S. Defense Industrial Base Still Facing Headwinds
By Jennifer Stewart, National Defense Magazine: “During the last 35 years, six U.S. administrations have worked tirelessly to deter peer conflict. But in many ways, the nation both forgot enduring truths regarding what national deterrence against peer competition requires and failed to successfully address the changing social, demographic and financial trends impacting the defense industrial base.”
Dan Grazier writes: If the Pentagon wants the American people to believe they have gotten their money’s worth, it should immediately declassify the latest testing report and release it publicly. After years of lofty promises about how the F-35 program would revolutionize warfare forever, it has barely limped across the full-rate production finish line. – The Hill
Understanding the Defense Department’s Industrial Base Problems with Jeff Decker, Marshall Kosloff, and Noah Sheinbaum
Marshall moderated a discussion with Jeff and Noah about their recent article, “Shining a Light on the Defense Department’s Industrial Base Problems.”
Five Highlights of Biden’s Most Recent Military Budget
Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas The White House’s military budget that it recently sent to Congress does not have enough funds to cover inflation. Mackenzie Eaglen explains how the president’s budget will cause America’s armed forces to fall further behind those of China and other adversaries. First, the costs of delayed and anemic military modernization will continue to compound and grow. Next, the Army is facing steep reductions, and the Navy plans on buying only six battle-force ships. Finally, the retirements and equipment quantities in the request will result in a less capable Air Force. If Congress does not want the military to fall further behind adversaries, it needs to revise the budget caps and provide the armed forces with real growth. Learn more here. >>
The State of the Defense Acquisition System, 2024
William C. Greenwalt | Senate Committee on Armed Services The defense acquisition system works as well as can be expected given the many, and oftentimes conflicting, mandates it must meet in law, executive orders, regulation, and policy. William C. Greenwalt notes the Defense Department’s legacy acquisition system is still too slow to be competitive and is only incrementally innovative. As America’s threat environment changes, its acquisition system must be flexible enough to adapt to disruptive new technology trends in real time. Despite reforms designed to elevate speed and the importance of time in acquisition, progress has been marginal at best. Without embracing the changes necessary to speed acquisition time, the Pentagon will not be capable of meeting the threats of the future. Read the full testimony here. >>
In Fiscal Year 2025, Bet on Congress or Begin to Pivot
John G. Ferrari and Charles Rahr | Breaking Defense The Pentagon seems to be the one institution in America that believes Congress will bail it out. John G. Ferrari and Charles Rahr explain that rather than relying on the Hill to save them, Defense Department leaders should consider alternative ways to meet current needs under budget constraints and a hard pivot away from expensive manned systems in favor of cheaper unmanned ones that can provide mass and capability for near-term conflicts. In failing to submit a budget that meets its strategy, the Pentagon is betting on Congress to come to its rescue. If that rescue mission does not pan out, then the Defense Department may have to pivot from large, expensive platforms to unmanned, attritable platforms bought at scale. Continue here. >>
After Putin
The Isis attack on Moscow has its origins in the Russian president’s earliest days in power—and points up the stakes for what follows when he is gone. / Read here
The 2024 National Defense Authorization Act—Bipartisan Hope amid Partisan Chaos
Elaine McCusker | National Interest Enacting the National Defense Authorization Act at a time when the current Congress can’t seem to agree on much of anything, much less by wide bipartisan margins, is a substantial achievement. Full Story
Five Notable Items for Asia Watchers in the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act
Zack Cooper and Connor Fiddler | AEIdeas Defense Appropriations Highlights and Conference Issues Defense Authorization Highlights and Conference Issues And You Are? How to Recognize and Remedy Unrecognized Frictions by Patrick Hinton Internal organizational friction reduces operational effectiveness and is often invisible in measures of force readiness. Defense Budgeting: Grappling With New Threats by Nadia Schadlow via Defining IdeasThe “peace dividend” days are over. Here’s where the money needs to go. Some Really New Thinking About How We Control Nuclear Weapons
mentioning Rose Gottemoeller via Commonwealth ClubFor 60 years following the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the United States and the USSR, later Russia, did their utmost to move forward to control nuclear weapons. Even in the darkest days of the Cold War, the two countries sat together at the negotiating table to produce the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the first Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, SALT I.
The Sinking Submarine Industrial Base by Emma Salisbury
The end of the Cold War gave rise to a balancing act within the world of U.S. naval acquisitions — how to make cuts under falling defense budgets while retaining a sufficient industrial base for the future.
The "Arsenal of Democracy" Does Not Sustain Itself
Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas If America is serious about remaining the arsenal of democracy, Washington cannot afford to take its foot off the pedal to increase surge production across the industrial base for munitions, ships, aircraft, and ground vehicles. Full Story
Chaos in Congress Must not Damage America’s Military
Mackenzie Eaglen | 19fortyfive.com With the outlook for defense policy and spending bills opaque for the foreseeable future given the chaos in Congress, Mackenzie Eaglen explains that policymakers must prioritize steps to mitigate uncertainty as much as possible. The Department of Defense must remind everyone that it has never operated under a full-year continuing resolution. Executive branch officials should educate members of Congress on how the absence of enacted policy and spending bills harms troops. Moreover, the National Defense Authorization Act has passed Congress for 62 consecutive years for good reason. With so many other headwinds, it is in the best interest of those in uniform not to break this streak. Learn more here. >>
Continuing to Lose: The Perils of Continuing Resolutions
Elaine McCusker | AEIdeas Another October, another continuing resolution (CR), which is Congress’s temporary legislative solution to extend last year’s funding and priorities into the new fiscal year. Elaine McCusker shows that perpetually using CRs wastes time and money while damaging national security. Under the current CR, the Defense Department is already losing about $70 million per day in buying power that will not come back. At fiscal year 2023 annualized levels, the defense budget under the CR is not only well below what is required but also in the wrong accounts. The nation needs its elected representatives to do their job and pass a defense budget before the current CR expires on November 17. Read more here. >> Learn about the Defense Fiscal Year Countdown here. >>
China’s Real Military Budget Is Far Bigger Than It Looks
Mackenzie Eaglen | 19fortyfive.com While Congress considers legislation to better approximate China’s military spending, the trend is clearly nothing but upward while America’s defense budget declines.
Counterterrorism Partnerships Sharpen America’s Competitive Edge
Katherine Zimmerman | Liberal Patriot New MEQ Features Gaza Strategy Proposal News from the Middle East Forum https://www.meforum.org/64493/new-meq-features-gaza Given the grave rhetoric, reports of possible 10% to 20% cuts to Army special operations forces — a prime force for competing in the “gray zone” to achieve U.S. aims short of armed conflict — seem misaligned with U.S. goals. While it is important to weigh the potential strategic ramifications of these reductions, it is as critical to recognize that they are just the latest manifestation of a misalignment between U.S. defense strategy and resources. – Defense News In the twentieth century, various intellectual factions struggled to define how conservatism should respond to a transformed constitutional order. READ MORE › The Debt Ceiling’s Geopolitical StakesAs the U.S. scrambles to shore up its position in the Indo-Pacific, unsound finances at home threaten its military readiness. / Read here Why the Budget Deal Is Good News for Defense—with One Key Exception Elaine McCusker | Breaking Defense Defense Budget: The Storied Unfunded Priorities Lists Elaine McCusker and John G. Ferrari | April 2023 Congress requires select uniformed and civilian leaders in the Pentagon to submit unfunded priority lists (UPLs) each year shortly after the president’s budget is released. In performing its constitutional responsibilities, Congress uses the UPLs, as the best judgment and advice of senior leaders, to understand risk inherent in the defense budget. This year’s UPLs total $16.9 billion and are notable in part for what they do not include: requests for assistance in addressing inflation that was not part of the budget request. As in previous years, investment accounts continue to dominate the UPLs, providing continuing evidence that defense needs both capacity and capability to perform its missions. READ MORE Time Is Money: The Importance of On-Time Annual Appropriations Elaine McCusker | AEIdeas Defense Fiscal Year Countdown American Enterprise Institute
DEFEATING RUSSIA & CHINA Read Full Monograph Reforming Defense Budgeting Elaine McCusker | AEI Foreign and Defense Policy Working Paper Series The defense budget funds has an increasing number of programs that do not produce military capability. Elaine McCusker explains that absent intervention, this trend will likely continue. As the US rethinks defense budgeting, it is useful to examine three key challenges. First, the Defense Department budget contains nearly $109 billion in spending that does not directly produce military capability. Second, as the definition of national security continues to expand, the number of noncore missions, programs, and activities funded by the defense budget will likely grow. Third, key characteristics of the defense budget need improvement. The budget should be transparent, responsive, and flexible in quickly taking advantage of technological advances. Currently, the defense budget struggles to be any of these things. Read the working paper here. >> Congress: Find the Savings and Hold the Defense-Budget Cuts Mackenzie Eaglen and Thomas Spoehr | 19fortyfive.com Congress finds itself torn between the twin imperatives to supply defense programs and reduce annual deficits to put the economy on a sound path. Mackenzie Eaglen and Thomas Spoehr identify ways the Pentagon can save and reinvest money to confront China. First, serious defense reform is the patient work of many years and requires allowing reformers to carefully cut and trim where necessary. Next, broad coalitions must advocate needed updates to the defense bureaucracy. Third, change requires up-front costs before the US can reap meaningful savings. Finally, continuing to avoid reform is unhelpful to those in uniform, since reform will free up funds for reinvestment in the things the military needs. Read more here. >> Bad Idea: Looking for Easy Solutions for PPBE Reform The means by which the Department of Defense decides how to spend its budget has long been criticized as needlessly complex and incapable of helping policymakers choose among investments to meet strategic goals. Seeking solutions, Congress created the Commission on PPBE Reform in the 2022 defense policy bill. But the reforms the system needs may not be as obvious as they seem. Read more » Turkey's More Independent Foreign Policy, with Christopher Preble, Melanie Marlowe, and Aaron Stein Fixing America’s Defense Budget By Elaine McCusker, RealClearDefense: “As Congress prepares to review the fiscal year 2024 federal budget request, new opportunities are emerging that can provide for America’s defense while still prioritizing cost saving and fiscal responsibility." Joe Biden’s Aspirational Defense Budget The Pentagon’s Fiscal Year 2024 Defense Budget Falls $40 Billion Short The Great Illusion of 2023 By Francis P. Sempa, The American Spectator: "Economic interdependence and globalization does not lessen the likelihood of war or the need to prepare for it." The Battle for Eurasia’s Borderlands
By Antonia Colibasanu, Geopolitical Futures: "Borderlands have long been an object of scrutiny in the realm of geopolitics, as they represent a point of convergence, interaction and oftentimes conflict between nations and political systems."
The 10 Most Widely Read Middle East Forum Articles of 2022
News from the Middle East Forum https://www.meforum.org/64050/top-ten-middle-east-forum-articles-of-2022
Expert Commentary on the 2022 National Security Strategy
Colin Dueck | National Institute for Public Policy The 2022 National Security Strategy is problematic. A better approach would begin by clarifying vital US national interests in plain English, laying out threats to those interests, and then describing the necessary policies to follow. Full Story
Bizarro Supply-Side Economics
Notwithstanding the rhetoric of White House officials, the Democratic Party continues to subsidize demand and constrain supply.
Report Finds Imbalance Between Defense Strategies, Industrial Base Capacity
By Mikayla Easley, National Defense Magazine: "U.S. national security policies and financial investments are not aligned to support the defense industrial base’s need to support great power competition, according to a new report released Feb. 8." Defense Primer: U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces From Congressional Research Service: "The United States has reaffirmed the value of the nuclear triad. The Obama Administration noted, in the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), that the unique characteristics of each leg of the triad were important to the goal of maintaining strategic stability at reduced numbers of warheads."
What’s Behind Proposed Changes to US Marine Deployments in Okinawa?
By Christopher Edward Carroll, The Diplomat: " Japan and the U.S. are actively taking note of changes in China’s naval and air capabilities in the region and making changes of their own."
Extended Deterrence, and Adjusting for the Multipolar Environment:
The Way Forward By Michaela Dodge, National Institute for Public Policy: "The United States is facing new challenges in trying to assure allies and deter revisionist adversaries, most notably Russia, China, and North Korea."
The US Military Is in Decline. Cutting Defense Spending Would Be a Disaster.
Mackenzie Eaglen | 19fortyfive.com As House Republicans continue to bandy about a major cut to the US military’s budget next year, Mackenzie Eaglen asks: Why would they arbitrarily pick a top-line budget number that is not threat-informed? Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) seems to think that returning budgets to 2022 levels is simply going back to “what we were spending just two or three weeks ago.” No. Returning to 2022 spending levels for 2024 is much more than a $75 billion cut for the US military. Once more accurate inflation data are available, it will be clear that the House GOP is proposing a defense cut well north of $100 billion. The result of this shortsighted and unserious proposal would be nearly immediate and create a much less capable force. Read more here. >>
12 Problems Harming Defense Innovation
William C. Greenwalt | AEIdeas As the US wrestles with a rapidly changing security environment, creating new military capabilities to counter growing threats is essential. William C. Greenwalt shows that defense leaders are being forced to relearn that one cannot just turn on a spigot and obtain weapons on demand. Industrial base constraints reliably manifest themselves in multiyear lead times, which Americans are seeing today in the effort to replace munitions used in Ukraine. The quandary, however, is much greater than just reconstituting peacetime stocks of existing systems. Any impending conflict, or perhaps more optimistically any deterred future conflict, will require not only production at scale but also innovation at a scale not seen since WWII and the early Cold War. Continue here. >>
For Better Defense Spending, Split the Pentagon’s Budget in Two
Mackenzie Eaglen | Hill Many states in America have two separate budgets: one for capital expenses and another for operating activities. Separating investments from the costs of annual operations means long-term capital improvement projects are not seen as deficit drivers. Mackenzie Eaglen explains that it is time to separate the Defense Department’s capital and operating budgets. By making important and necessary funds for pay and benefits into mandatory spending, policymakers will have a clearer understanding of where defense dollars go and how much of the defense budget actually buys direct military capability. This method will go a long way toward ensuring the military receives what it genuinely needs to execute its central mission to defend the nation. Continue here. >> Matching Defense Budget to Strategy Elaine McCusker and Emily Coletta | AEIdeas As we await the release of the President’s fiscal year 2024 budget request to Congress in early March, chatter continues on Capitol Hill about potentially irresponsible and dangerous cuts to defense. Elaine McCusker and Emily Coletta show that such speculation directly contradicts bipartisan support for the recently passed defense budget. There is a false belief that the Pentagon can reform or save its way out of the current budget hole. It cannot. American should be unwilling to accept any budget plan that threatens to repeat the costly mistakes of the Budget Control Act era. To this end, representatives on Capitol Hill can lead this year by reaching a budget agreement now that will allow enactment of regular appropriations bills before the start of the fiscal year. Learn more here. >>
Don’t Just Target Terrorists. Deny Them Safe Havens.
Katherine Zimmerman | Hill Recent American raids against the Islamic State (IS) in Somalia add to a growing series of operations to capture or kill those involved in plotting transnational attacks. Katherine Zimmerman argues that while targeting high-value individuals within IS weakens it, raids and airstrikes will not be enough to win this fight. IS has routinized its leadership succession to overcome rapid losses, which means the US must refocus on denying terrorists the safe havens needed to recruit and plan for attacks. Washington’s hesitancy to do more than targeting for fear of overcommitting resources again is letting terrorists regroup. Suppressing terrorist networks is not a permanent solution; it requires constant resources to monitor and prevent attacks. Read more here. >>
China in Our Backyard – A Wakeup Call
By Miguel Alejandro Laborde, RealClearDefense: “. . . in March of 2022, USSOUTHCOM Commander General Richardson provided, in illuminating and stark detail, a number of concerns and threats both resident and growing in the Southern Command Area of Responsibility (AOR)."
Defense Funding—Highlights from Fiscal Year 2023 to Inform Fiscal Year 2024
Elaine McCusker | AEIdeas The US Military Is in Decline. Cutting Defense Spending Would Be a Disaster. Mackenzie Eaglen | 19fortyfive.com Twelve Problems Impeding Defense Innovation William C. Greenwalt | AEIdeas Navy Secretary Warns: If Defense Industry Can’t Boost Production, Arming Both Ukraine and the US May Become ‘Challenging’ // Marcus Weisgerber: Carlos Del Toro’s comments come as an admiral accuses weapons makers of using the pandemic as an excuse for not delivering arms on time. The PLA’s People Problem // Peter W. Singer and Taylor A. Lee: China’s military has long struggled to field quality personnel.
The 1960s had Their Day: Changing DoD’s Acquisition Processes and Structures By William McHenry & Mike Brown, RealClearDefense: “The Department of Defense (DoD) acquires cutting edge technology in the same manner Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara envisioned acquiring aircraft carriers during the Vietnam War; via a long and ordered linear process." Is the “China Model” Finally Failing? Dalibor Rohac | Bulwark While forecasting autocratic breakdowns or gradual liberalization of dictatorial regimes is a fool’s errand, human yearning for freedom is real and irrepressible—especially once already tasted. If we are lucky, we may see its fruit in our lifetimes, in China and beyond. Disentangling The Digital Battlefield: How the Internet Has Changed War, by Steven Feldstein Three Cheers for the Defense Policy Bill Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas The recently released defense policy bill—which authorizes end-strength levels, delivers oversight, and provides funding guidance for the Defense Department—is a much-needed vote of confidence in the US military. Full Story
US Lawmakers Ease Planned China Chip Controls Amid Industry Pushback. US senators softened proposed limits on Chinese-made chips after pushback from US business and trade groups. The original measure would have required US federal agencies and contractors to stop using chips from Chinese chip makers SMIC, YMTC and CXMT. The new version no longer restricts contractors and pushes compliance to five years. The measure is an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act, which Congress is expected to pass this month. The Chinese Embassy in Washington said criticism of the measure shows that trade restrictions on China are in no one’s interest. Reuters The 2022 War On The Rocks Holiday Reading List, by WOTR staff The Semiconductor Industry and the China Challenge By Michael Hochberg & Leonard Hochberg, “Every nation-state faces a fundamental choice: With whom will we engage in trade?" New MEQ Features Analysis of Iran, "Islamophobia," and Arab Political Rhetoric News from the Middle East Forum December 6, 2022 https://www.meforum.org/63882/new-meq-features-iran-islamophobia-political-rhetoric Turkish government banks on Gulf financial support to save economy As crucial elections near, Ankara pins hope on financial support from “friendly” countries to ease its foreign currency shortfall and rein in inflation. Sudan's transition deal seen as significant, but doubts remain
Protesters and some observers are skeptical the agreement will end the political crisis in the east African country, but the United States and Gulf states have praised the deal.
2022 National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review
From USNI News: “Key Points and the entire document provided by USNI News.”
DoD Releases 2022 Strategic Reviews. The US Department of Defense released the unclassified versions of three key strategic reviews – the National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review and Missile Defense Review. The Pentagon said it conducted reviews in an integrated way for the first time to coordinate defense efforts. The NDS focuses on deterrence against China – making it a clear priority over Russia – and collaboration with US allies and partners. The document also mentions an “integrated deterrence” approach to non-military attacks and gray zone threats. The NPR largely maintains US nuclear policy, though it does remove the “hedging against an uncertain future” role of nuclear weapons and scraps a nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile system – moves that may signal that the US will place more emphasis on conventional means for nuclear deterrence given recent threats of nuclear escalation with Russia over the Ukraine war. Atlantic Council New York Times Reuters US Department of Defense
China's Nuclear Arsenal Will Become an Existential Threat to US, Biden Administration Declares // Marcus Weisgerber: New nuclear strategy deletes one new U.S. weapon, keeps the rest.
That's it? Biden's Overdue Pentagon Strategy Underwhelms // Kevin Baron: After nearly two years, experts were hoping for more.
Of Politics and Power
By Seth Cropsey, RealClearDefense: “Queen Elizabeth Reminds Us of the Alternatives to our Jacobin Age." There’s a Battle Between Autocracy and Democracy in America’s Backyard and Democracy Is Losing By Cam McMillan, RealClearDefense: "Daniel Ortega, the former Sandinista revolutionary, has devolved Nicaragua into an authoritarian state at the expense of Nicaraguans and the region."
The Constitution and National Unity
Yuval Levin | National Review In the struggle to forge solidarity in our divided society, the Constitution is not the problem but the solution.
How China Views It: Sino-American Technology Competition
Dan Blumenthal, Gregory Graff, and Christian Curriden | American Enterprise Institute These two reports are based on research projects from the Hertog Foundation National Security & Sino-American Technology Competition fellowship, led by AEI Senior Fellow Dan Blumenthal.
A Strategy of Distribution for Addressing the People’s Liberation Army of 2025–30
Eric Sayers | National Bureau of Asian Research A New Paper Calls Out America’s Shrinking Air Force And Likelihood It Can’t Win Against China By Eric Tegler, Forbes: “. . . a new paper from the Mitchell Institute details an underfunded U.S. Air Force which may not be able to win against China." Increase DARPA Funding and Tackle Ambitious Missions in 2023 By Benedict Capaldi, RealClearDefense: “Funding by top venture capital firms like a16z, Lux Capital, and Founders Fund is fueling companies known as the SHARPEs: ShieldAI, Hawkeye 360, Anduril, Rebellion Defense, Palantir, and Epirus." Books for the Century: Military, Scientific, and Technological By Lawrence D. Freedman, Foreign Affairs: "Three important approaches to the study of war were established by books published during World War II." Marine Corps Planning for Wars Where Robots Kill Each Other By Konstantin Toropin, Military.com: "Marine leaders are laying out a more detailed and concrete vision for the use of unmanned platforms and drones that includes things like robot-driven supply lines and robot combat in the wake of the huge maritime exercise in the Pacific." Supply Chain Problems Are Hurting Nuclear Modernization By Joe Gould, Defense News: "The nominee to lead the U.S. nuclear arsenal said Thursday that supply chain snags that are pummeling the defense industrial base are also hurting Washington’s plans to modernize its aging nuclear arsenal." Only Democracy Can Bring Stability to the Balkans, by Maja Bjelos Net Assessment: Galvanizing America's Defense Industrial Policy, with Christopher Preble, Melanie Marlowe, and Zack Cooper According to William C. Greenwalt, the Department of Defense has lost one of its most dynamic innovators. Mike Brown retired as head of the Defense Innovation Unit on Friday, September 2, after his efforts to engage with private-sector innovation reportedly met with "a critical lack of support from Pentagon leadership." The resistance to Brown's efforts, Greenwalt argues, shows that the Pentagon "is doubling down on a bureaucratic, risk-averse, and time-intensive system that puts us at greater risk to being outmaneuvered." The Pentagon Gets the Better Part of a Trillion Dollars a Year. Why Isn't That Enough? By Mackenzie Eaglen The budgeting process has calcified, with huge sums going to the priorities of yesteryear.
Recruitment Is Now a Real Threat to a Frail Force Facing Formidable Foes Mackenzie Eaglen | Breaking Defense Recruiting challenges are fraying and decaying the US armed forces at a time when the military needs to be growing. The Anvil and the Lighthouse: Why Forward Deployments Are Vital By James Stavridis, Proceedings: "Like a lighthouse on a rocky coast, Navy and Marine Corps forward-deployed forces might never know what crises their presence has averted, but their deterrent value is critical in the turbulent 21st century." How To Slash the Time and Money Needed To Build Warships —Without Cutting Capabilities By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “Virtually every official assessment of how many warships the Navy needs to do its job identifies a number well above 300." The Paradox of Scarcity in a Defense Budget of Largesse Mackenzie Eaglen | AEI In her latest report, Mackenzie Eaglen analyzes the scarcity of buying power available in the US defense budget to advance the National Defense Strategy. Between two-thirds and three-quarters of the defense budget is fenced and fixed each year before the Department of Defense (DOD) and Congress can make changes to address threats and advance the defense strategy. Inflation is drastically cutting into the DOD’s buying power, further reducing the little share left to decision makers to fund new strategic initiatives. Congress must increase funds above inflation and stop deferring hard choices while US adversaries surge ahead in innovation and military development. Read More > Congress Must Do Its Job: Provide and Maintain a Navy Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas The Pentagon has proposed retiring Navy ships that are only three years old before new and improved replacements are available. Mackenzie Eaglen argues that the US Nay’s proposed strategy of “divest to invest” is in reality a strategy of “invest to divest.” While there is plenty to criticize about the Littoral Combat Ship, the law of physics still matters in a world not getting any smaller: One ship can only be in one place at one time. The US military cannot afford to lose the space covered and deterred by these ships. Spending money to prematurely retire ships at a time of record deployments is needlessly wasteful for an asset still needed. Read More >> House Authorizers Rescue Procurement Elaine McCusker and John G. Ferrari | AEIdeas Following the approval of the fiscal year 2023 National Defense Authorization Act by House appropriators, Elaine McCusker and John G. Ferrari analyze the $37 billion increase that the House authorized. They note that the substantial increases in procurement of equipment and facilities tell us two things. First, Congress does not agree with the Department of Defense (DOD) strategy of sacrificing procurement in favor of continued investments in long-term technology development. Second, Congress recognizes that buying more tanks, ships, and munitions is crucial to a robust supply chain—a point DOD seems not to understand. Read More >> Keeping Putin’s Nuclear Threat from Launching an Arms Race Hal Brands | Bloomberg The war in Ukraine has put a serious strain on American achievements in nuclear nonproliferation. Yet, Hal Brands explains that the future of nuclear nonproliferation will depend heavily on how the US addresses not just the Ukraine war but a larger set of rivalries and tensions around the globe. So far, Washington has limited the danger of nuclear dominoes falling in Europe. In order to inhibit proliferation, the US must have greater consultation with allies on nuclear strategy, engage in discussions of how Washington would respond to a limited Chinese use of nuclear weapons, and perhaps even station nuclear weapons on or near the territory of key allies. Read More >> When the Chips Are Down Klon Kitchen | Dispatch The United States needs to make major investments in domestic semiconductor manufacturing capability, attract technical talent from overseas in the near term, and build a deep pool of domestic talent for the long term, argues Klon Kitchen. The US does not have the capacity and industry growth possible to meet our own demand for semiconductor chips, let alone that of the rest of the world. The current semiconductor global supply chain is insufficiently secure, diverse, and resilient to meet our national security requirements, and therefore, significant action must be taken. Read More >> China’s Roadblocks to Becoming A Science Superpower By Ma Xiu & Peter W. Singer, Defense One: "Historical and structural problems complicate Beijing’s vision of tech leadership." Hedging with Humility: Reassessing China’s Power Projection Capabilities Against Taiwan, by Collin Fox, Trevor Phillips-Levine, and Kyle Cregge China’s Increasingly Impressive Air-to-Air Missile Inventory By Thomas Newdick, The War Zone: "China has made very impressive progress in its air-to-air missile development, but these weapons remain relatively obscure in the West. A Strategist’s Cast of Characters: The Critical Attributes and Skills of Strategic Decision-Makers By Roni Yadlin, Strategy Bridge: "Since the day when Thespis made dramatic history and first took to the stage as a character in a play, the ancient Greeks used theatrical productions to provide social commentary, impart lessons, and inspire action." China’s Gorbachev Phobia
By Minxin Pei, The Strategist (ASPI): "There was a time when well-meaning, if not wishful-thinking, Westerners thought that ‘China’s Gorbachev’ was the highest compliment they could pay a Chinese leader who looked like a reformer." Assessing military cyber maturity: Strategy, institutions, and capability Jason Blessing | International Institute for Strategic Studies This paper offers insights into how the governance and organizational factors of domestic politics facilitate or inhibit the dissemination of cyber concepts and capabilities throughout military forces beyond the main signals or cyber-intelligence agency. Startups and the Defense Department Compliance Labyrinth by Daniel Lim James C. Capretta welcomes the competition of ideas to the field of government cost estimates. Despite presidential criticism of nongovernmental estimates, Capretta posits that more scholars tracking federal spending plans will lead to better estimates and more accountability. Since 1997, Congress has created four independent commissions to test the Pentagon's operations. But Mackenzie Eaglen and Roger Zakheim argue that America is in urgent need of a new commission to address old problems, such as redundancies, and new threats, such as the Chinese military. It’s time for Pentagon to prioritize near-term acquisition fixes over systemic change
Former Pentagon official Jeff Bialos says with less than three years for an undersecretary of acquisition and sustainment to do their job, they need to focus on triage efforts.
The decline in defense purchasing power and the transformation of the Pentagon into a social program
William C. Greenwalt | AEIdeas The vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. John Hyten, recently outlined a condition that is now too big to ignore: Defense purchasing power is so anemic that the Pentagon struggles to get any increase in defense capability for all the taxpayer money spent. Even worse, capability has been eroded to the point that our adversaries are now at parity with the US — and the situation is not getting any better, points out William Greenwalt. We will need radical regulatory relief and management reforms to dig ourselves out of this hole. Read More >>
Huawei’s decline shows why China will struggle to dominate
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion Two years ago, Chinese telecom giant Huawei was set to control global 5G, symbolizing Beijing's rise to technological primary. But now its goal is survival, notes Hal Brands. Huawei’s decline shows how China is often its own worst enemy, as its global assertiveness makes its rivals multiply. It represents bipartisan effectiveness, and it shows that the US has the tools, and can assemble the strategy, to win a high-tech rivalry with China — provided Washington can avoid losing crucial near-term battles first. Read More >> Evergrande and more important things Derek Scissors | AEIdeas While some claim that the Evergrande debacle is another “Lehman moment,” they misunderstand a crucial distinction: The Chinese financial system is largely not commercial; it’s largely a government arm, points out Derek Scissors. The true risk, however, is that Beijing's interference in finance is increasing, as seen by the New Bank of International Settlements, which shows that China’s large credit share of gross domestic product (GDP) is falling in the first quarter. While that’s partly due to artificially fast GDP out of the pandemic, Beijing is also limiting lending and direct government borrowing this year. If sustained, this would be far more important than Evergrande. Read More >
Stronger Deterrence Will Avoid War Over Taiwan
By Peter Jennings, The Strategist (ASPI): "The Taiwanese assess perhaps a three-year time frame before an attack, while U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Honolulu considers a military assault in six years to be possible."
t’s a mistake to think some jihadis are only focused on the ‘local’
Emily Estelle | The Hill There is a false assumption behind the Joe Biden administration's decision to abandon counterterrorism: Jihadist groups with local ambitions do not have international goals. Relying on this false assumption blinds us to the growing threat in Afghanistan and the danger of other "Islamic emirates" proliferating worldwide, explains Emily Estelle. The rapid growth of African Salafi-jihadi groups is one of the most alarming trends of the past decade. Accommodating these groups will not stop them from attacking us. The only long-term solution is to uproot and discredit them. Read More >>
Senate Commission to Fix Defense Budgeting Is Right on the Mark by John Whitley and Gregory Pejic
Continuing Resolutions Could Extend Well into 2022
By Jon Harper, National Defense Magazine: “We’re in the final days of September, and once again the federal government Is set to start a new fiscal year under a continuing resolution — or a government shutdown — because Congress failed to pass a full-year appropriations bill by Oct. 1. However, this time around, the CRs may last much longer than usual." U.S. Military Eyes Prototype Mobile Nuclear Reactor in Idaho By Keith Ridler, AP: “The lab is considered the nation’s leading nuclear research lab, and has multiple facilities to aid in building and testing the microreactor.”
Uncovering the French Origins of COIN
By M.L. deRaismes Combes, Classics of Strategy and Diplomacy: ". . . counterinsurgency as a discrete military (and political) practice dates even further back—to the nineteenth century and to the height of European imperialism. "
Four Steps to a Successful Quad Leaders’ Summit
By Hayley Channer, The Strategist (ASPI): "Due to the timing, more links are being drawn between AUKUS and the Quad than may have occurred had the two events been further apart. With AUKUS still very fresh, Japan and India will expect additional detail about the deal and reassurance from Australia and the U.S."
The U.S. Should Strengthen Its Relationship With India
to Keep China and the Taliban in Check By Mark Green, RealClearDefense: “By helping India upgrade its defense systems, the United States can empower India to defend itself, as well as provide security in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific region. This is all the more important since the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban."
Understanding China’s Military Spending
By Richard A. Bitzinger & James Char, The National Interest: “Where China’s military build-up is concerned, adding some context to make up for the lack of transparency in its annual budget provides us with a better—albeit still limited—appreciation of the People’s Liberation Army budgetary allocations." Curing the Administrative State by robert r. gasaway Our administrative state's ills cannot be treated with homespun remedies. READ MORE ›
Biden Must Stop Russia’s Illicit Procurement of Sensitive American Technologies
By Andrea Stricker & John Hardie, The National Interest: “Investigations have exposed many Russian illicit procurement schemes in recent years, targeting items ranging from sensitive diving equipment to dual-use machine tools to components used in night-vision and thermal-imaging devices. A US defense budget that makes China smile Mackenzie Eaglen | 19fortyfive.com A larger workforce of Department of Defense civilians is no substitute for service members. Full Story Iran’s Tricky Balancing Act in Afghanistan by Candace Rondeaux, Amir Toumaj, and Arif Ammar
The American Revolution, Naval Power, and the 21st Century by BJ Armstrong The Defense Futures Simulator from War on the Rocks, American Enterprise Institute, and Center for Strategic & International Studies Strategic Outpost’s Sixth Annual Summer Vacation Reading List by David Barno and Nora Bensahel The Problem with Biden’s Democracy Agenda by Robert Manning and Mathew Burrows India Eyes America’s Afghan Withdrawal with Avinash Paliwal Tunisian Democracy in Crisis After Presidential Power Grab with Sharan Grewal To Biden Administration: Record of Iran's Top "Moderate" Mullah by Majid Rafizadeh American Stagnation Plan President Biden’s rescue package will finance a flood of questionable local government programs unlikely to produce much economic stimulus. The Navy must choose between developing a next-generation fighter, a destroyer, or a submarine, acting Secretary Thomas Harker said in a June 4 memo posted by USNI News this week. "The Navy cannot afford to simultaneously develop the next generation of air, surface, and subsurface platforms and must prioritize these programs, balancing the cost of developing next-generation capabilities against maintaining current capabilities," the memo states. The Air Force said GE can 3D print It's the Government Accountability Office's annual assessment of the Pentagon's major weapon programs. FLAVIO FELICE Debt and Democracy Madison and Jefferson can still offer us sage counsel for our heavily indebted times. How States Can Respond If Biden Lifts Iran Sanctions Republican governors and legislatures have some effective tools at their disposal. Spring 2021 Issue MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE Out of Sight Should Not Mean Out of Reach: Deterrence and the Proliferation of Hard and Deeply Buried Targets By Michaela Dodge, National Institute for Public Policy: “It has been almost two decades since the U.S. government had an extensive public discussion of the issue of having a nuclear capability to destroy hard and deeply buried targets (HDBTs).” The Broken Road to Military Professionalism
by j. furman daniel iii Wooster’s book is an examination of the fundamental debates regarding the role of the military in American society. READ MORE ›
Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Way Forward
In a new policy briefing book, entitled The Biden Administration and the Middle East: Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Way Forward, MEI scholars tackle a large number of country-specific and region-wide issue areas, laying out both the abiding U.S. interests and specific recommendations for Biden administration policies that can further U.S. interests amid a region in turmoil. Read Briefing Book
China and Military Power through Artificial Intelligence by Peter Schweizer
Competing in time: How the Department of Defense is losing the innovation race to China
Despite reforms, the Pentagon and Congress have failed to break out of a Cold War, central-planning model that has stifled innovation, writes William Greenwalt. A radical overhaul of the entire defense management system is now required. Time is of the essence. READ MORE
question the stealth fighter's role. "What does the F-35 give us? Is there a way to cut our losses? Is there a way to not keep spending so much money for such a low capability, because the sustainment costs are brutal," Smith said at a Brookings Institution event on Friday.
The F-35 is the largest, most expensive Pentagon program —ever— so it certainly has a target on its back now that Democrats control Congress and there is a Dem in the White House and are expected to cut defense spending in the coming years. But that's no easy feat since F-35 parts are made in 45 U.S. states and a number of foreign partners, which will certainly weigh in on the minds of lawmakers. Nine countries are already flying the plane too.
Small Number of States Dominate Defense Spending
By Jon Harper, National Defense Magazine: "A huge portion of U.S. defense spending is going to contractors and military personnel based in just a handful of states, according to data recently released by the Pentagon."
Global defence-spending on the up, despite economic crunch
Notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent 3.5% contraction in global economic output in 2020, global defence-spending was resilient with real growth matching the higher rate achieved in 2019. However, even with a potential uplift in European spending, this increase could slow in 2021 as the defence budget of the United States flattens and growth in Asia-Pacific slows. Read Fenella McGerty's analysis in full.
US Intelligence and the Dilemma of Iran
By Erfan Fard, February 26, 2021 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The rogue regime in Tehran is the primary source of turmoil and instability in the Middle East. The regime thirsts for ever more dominance across the region and beyond and employs a terrorist network to achieve that goal, even as it continues to move aggressively in its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The threat of Iran, combined with the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Syria, has prompted the creation of an anti-Iran coalition. It is now up to the Biden administration, which has no desire to become involved in a military conflict with Iran, to determine the best course of action in dealing with a regime that persistently challenges all accepted norms of behavior. Continue to full article ->
Navigating the Shoals of Renewed American Naval Power: Imperatives for the Next Secretary of the Navy by Bryan Durkee and Chris Bassler
Janet Yellen and the return of the bond vigilantes
Desmond Lachman | The National Interest Today's global credit and asset bubble is premised on the assumption that US interest rates will remain at low levels indefinitely. This could change quickly if inflation fears due to the president's expansive stimulus package push rates up. The market for US government bonds could be an early signal of trouble ahead.
Biden must not repeat Trump’s trade policy mistakes
Desmond Lachman | The Hill President Joe Biden has inherited a US and global economy in much worse shape than did President Donald Trump. As such, Biden cannot afford to repeat the same trade policy mistakes that the Trump administration made if he wishes to arrest the worldwide drift to protectionist policies that threaten US and global prosperity.
How To Overcome Weaknesses in the Western Way of Sea War
By James Holmes, 1945: “The question put to me for today is: what are some aspects of the Western way of maritime war that opponents can exploit?" America’s Approach Towards Iran By Ehud Eilam, Wavell Room: "What should President Biden’s strategy towards Iran look like? It is a crucial matter which might bring a nuclear arms race to the Middle East and maybe even a nuclear war. Israel and Arab states are also very concerned about Iran and about its regional ambitions and long-range missile project. All of that has to be addressed by negotiation while retaining a military option should the talks reach a dead end." Global Defence-Spending on the Up, Despite Economic Crunch By Fenella McGerty, IISS: “Notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent 3.5% contraction in global economic output in 2020, global defence-spending was resilient with real growth matching the higher rate achieved in 2019. However, even with a potential uplift in European spending, this increase could slow in 2021 as the defence budget of the United States flattens and growth in Asia-Pacific slows."
Competing in time: Ensuring capability advantage and mission success through adaptable resource allocation
William C. Greenwalt and Dan Patt | Hudson Institute The keystone of the Department of Defense’s (DOD) institutional architecture is not acquisition, but rather the budgeting process. Congress and the DOD need to cooperate to overhaul the resource-allocation process to allow the United States to compete with other nations such as China. Full Story
What are China’s leaders saying about the South China Sea?
Oriana Skylar Mastro | The Lowy Institute Persian Gulf militaries, by the numbers. Here's a (just-a-bit-blurry) chart showing the military endstrength and major weapons of seven Gulf countries, produced by Defense News from the new edition of IISS's Military Balance. China's Military-Civil Fusion Strategy: What to Expect in the Next Five Years // Peter W. Singer and Alex Stone: Even as the term has all but disappeared from official documents, its tenets are being strengthened and extended. Who’s Who in Defense: Kathleen Hicks, Deputy Secretary Of Defense Part of a special Breaking Defense reference series profiling key defense decision-makers in the new administration and Congress. Joe Biden's Mideast Policy: Obama Redux by Alexander H. Joffe BESA Center Perspectives https://www.meforum.org/61992/bidens-foreign-policy-a-preliminary-assessment Turkish Reforms: From Imperial Repression to Thuggish State by Burak Bekdil Iran's Role in Yemen: US, EU Go Wobbly by Majid Rafizadeh How To Make The Third Offset Real: The Combined JADC2
There are places where jointness, that still sometimes elusive character, is on full display in the US military and one of those is where close air support meets the Army. The Army’s Joint Support Team trains 4,200 Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine and Special Operations Command students in joint air-ground operations education, training and command-and-control systems integration. Ike was wrong: The military-industrial-congressional complex turns 60 William C. Greenwalt | Breaking Defense President Dwight Eisenhower gave his farewell speech to the nation 60 years ago, a speech that became famous for one trope — beware the military-industrial complex. Why China’s Advance in Latin America Matters By R. Evan Ellis, National Defense Magazine: “China’s expanding presence and influence in Latin America is now widely recognized by political and business leaders and security professionals..” Implementing Arab Gulf Reconciliation By Jeff Martini, RealClearDefense: "As the Arab Gulf states prepare to engage with a new U.S. administration, their recent reconciliation announcement offers an opportunity to advance their interests as well as mutual interests with the United States." The Caravan: The Arab Public And US Foreign Policy: A Discussion With Faisal Abbas interview with Faisal Abbas, Russell A. Berman via The Caravan Notebook A public opinion survey sheds important light on Arab views of the role of the US in the Middle East with implications for the Biden Administration. Turkey furious over Clintons' TV show featuring Syrian Kurdish women fighters Turkey’s state-run press agency is churning out angry coverage of former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her daughter Chelsea producing a TV series about the Syrian Kurdish women fighters who were key in defeating the Islamic State. Explosions over Riyadh as CENTCOM commander visits region No group has yet claimed credit for the blasts, which came three days after the Saudi military said it shot down an enemy projectile over Riyadh. U.S., AFGHANISTAN: Al Qaeda ‘Gaining Strength’ in Afghanistan, U.S. Treasury Says By Thomas Joscelyn, FDD's Long War Journal: “. . . al Qaeda was “gaining strength in Afghanistan while continuing to operate with the Taliban under the Taliban’s protection.” Al Qaeda “capitalizes on its relationship with the Taliban through its network of mentors and advisers who are embedded with the Taliban, providing advice, guidance, and financial support.”” Agile Appropriations: How DoD Can Operate More Like a Startup By Timothy P. Grayson, RealClearDefense: “Silicon Valley and the venture capital communities are known for their innovation and agility. While most of these success stories start small, the figurative "two guys in a garage," many have ended up becoming "unicorns" and are now some of the biggest, most powerful corporations in the world. These startups start small, accept risk and move fast.” It’s Time To Move the Army Ladder By Eric Wesley & Robert Simpson, War on the Rocks: “When The New York Times reported that Russia had likely deployed a nuclear-armed cruise missile in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear." The U.S. Military’s Real Foe: The Tyranny of Distance By Patrick Hulme & Erik Gartzke, 1945: “When it comes to war, America is almost always playing an “away game.”” Present at the Drone War’s Creation By Benjamin Runkle, RealClearDefense: “. . . despite the current vogue for railing against the bureaucratic "Deep State," Never Mind shows how much of the implementation of grand strategy and policy relies on nameless, faceless patriots for success." These five items should top Biden’s defense priorities [Commentary] The Biden administration has the opportunity to institute reforms in several crucial areas at the Pentagon. Read More A Civilizational Foreign Policy By Samuel Gregg on Jan 31, 2021 04:00 pm In “The Abandonment of the West,” Michael Kimmage focuses on the role of the West in America’s approach to the world. Beyond his historical argument, he believes that the idea of the West requires rehabilitation as an underlying motif of American foreign policy, both to resist authoritarianism abroad and to foster greater unity domestically. ... Read in browser » Restoring Thucydides By William D. Burghart, Strategy Bridge: “. . . Thucydides’ text is not a machine into which modern problems can be plugged in and answers calculated.” Theseus, Daedalus and Icarus By Roger Ranger, Wavell Room: “The potential non-kinetic military effects of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the battlefield." Turning the JLTV Into a Science Fair Dangerous for Warfighters By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “There’s a longstanding ritual among defense contractors and pundits when a new president takes office. They try to convince the incoming administration that their priorities are a good match for its agenda.” We Need a Bigger and Smarter Navy By Steve Cohen, The Hill: "China is leading the world in ship production. In the past 10 years, China has increased its number of battle force ships by 140, while the U.S. has only grown by 9. Importantly, that trend has accelerated in the past five years; more than 100 of China’s additions were made between 2015 and 2020." Why the Age of the Aircraft Carrier Isn't Over Just Yet By Dan Gouré, The National Interest: “Critics of the modern aircraft carrier too often focus only on the alleged vulnerabilities of the ship and fail to address the role of the carrier air wing.” Defending Forward to Confront China’s Military Aims By Craig Singleton, RealClearDefense: "The passage of the fiscal year 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) marked the moment the budget finally caught up to a grim geostrategic reality." A Super-Max Failure and the Case for Going Irregular:
Recalibrating U.S. Policy Toward Iran By Alex Deep, Modern War Institute: "Over the past four years, the United States has taken a more aggressive approach with Iran through the “super-maximum pressure” economic campaign, overt military action, and confrontational rhetoric." What’s Next for Afghanistan? By Amin Saikal, The Strategist (ASPI): “The fate of Afghanistan has been a perennial issue, decided often by outside powers rather than by the Afghan people." |
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