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REFORM FOR GREAT POWER COMPETITION BEGINS & RUSSIA ESCALATES OVER THE BLACK SEA

8/28/2020

Force Multiplier: U.S. Fleet Of Air-Capable Amphibious Warfare Ships
By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: “The Navy and Marine Corps are proposing radical changes to their force structures in line with new concepts for maritime and expeditionary operations."

Continuing Resolutions Hurt National Security and Imperil Our Future
By Elaine McCusker, The Hill: “Congress should no longer accept passing stop-gap funding measures, which hold hostage the nation’s security and federal responsibilities, as good enough."

Afghanistan’s Policing Failure and the Uncertain Way Forward
By Karl Nicolas Lindenlaub, Strategy Bridge: "Of the many shortcomings of American strategy in Afghanistan, the trials and tribulations of Afghan police development represent a crucial, but often overlooked, piece of the narrative."

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7 important updates in the Department of Defense’s 2020 China Military Power Report
Zack Cooper | AEIdeas
The 2020 China Military Power Report provides a unique perspective on how China’s military has changed in the 21st century.

As the House and Senate prepare to conference on the fiscal 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, the conservative Heritage Foundation has put together more than 30 recommendations for lawakers, including:

Cancel the Boeing F-15EX fighter program and instead buy more Lockheed Martin-made F-35 Joint Strike Fighters (read Heritage’s argument, here).
“Support additional ship purchases to ensure meeting the 2034 target of a 355-ship Navy.”
Don’t ban nuclear testing.
Support the Indo-Pacific Deterrence Initiative, “Maintain the prohibition on withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula; Demonstrate support for Taiwan; Block funding for the removal of U.S. troops from Europe; Keep up the pressure through sanctions.

Evolution of the Fleet:
A Closer Look at the Chinese Fishing Vessels off the Galapagos
By Tabitha Mallory & Ian Ralby, CIMSEC: “Using data and insight from Windward, a predictive maritime intelligence platform, our analysis examines how this fishing phenomenon has evolved over time and who is behind this increasingly intensive fishing effort."

Boeing was not happy about Heritage's recommendation to scrap the F-15EX. “It’s unfortunate that the Heritage Foundation has again misinterpreted the U. S. Air Force’s requirement for the F-15EX and the facts about that aircraft and the F-35,” Jeff Shockey, vice president of global sales and marketing for Boeing Defense, Space & Security, said in an emailed statement. “What’s more, the Air Force will save approximately $3 billion by transitioning F-15C/D units to the F-15EX instead of the F-35…. The fact is that the Air Force needs both aircraft to meet operational and fiscal requirements.”

Chinese provocations, the Republican National Convention, and the secretary of defense in Asia
Mackenzie Eaglen | "Defense & Aerospace Report"

China Is Ahead in Ship, Missile & Air Defense Tech: DoD Report
“The report does not claim that China’s military is currently 10 feet tall,” but “Beijing is working to overcome [its faults],” says Deputy Assistant Secretary for China, Chad Sbragia

China's growing military: The Pentagon's latest annual assessment of Chinese military power says the country is set to double its nuclear stockpile over the next decade, operates the world's largest Navy, is surging its space capabilities, and embedding artificial intelligence across everything that it does. Defense One's Patrick Tucker examines several key trends highlighted in the 2020 China Military Power report: expanding naval power, the movement toward a more integrated joint force, and an embrace of AI and other emerging information technologies.

"Over the Black Sea, Moscow Escalates Its Military Provocations," Bradley Bowman and Maj. Shane “Axl” Praiswater, FDD Policy Brief

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PENTAGON TRENDS IN WAR FIGHTING

8/24/2020

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Strategic Vacuum by Seth Cropsey

INDIA:
Indian Air Modernization Takes a Significant Step Forward
By Pierre Tran, SLD.info: “Five Rafales took off July 27 from Mérignac, southwest France, with Indian air force pilots starting a 7,000 km flight to India, with a further five units staying in France for pilot training, the Indian embassy said in a statement."

Mirroring Vietnam’s Failures in Afghanistan: DoD’s Descent Into War Fatigue
By Chandler Myers, War Room: "The long road to the trilateral U.S.-Afghanistan-Taliban memorandum of agreement was wearisome on all fronts."

Five Eyes: Blurring the Lines Between Intelligence and Policy
By Ben Scott, the interpreter: “Intelligence sharing is one thing. Aligning policy with the same brand risks making too exclusive a grouping."

U.S., MIDDLE EAST:
5th Fleet: China Laying Groundwork in Middle East to Pose Future Threats
By Megan Eckstein, USNI News: “The head of naval forces in the Middle East said Chinese actions in the region don’t pose a threat today but could lead to challenges down the road, with China laying the groundwork to gain economic and military leverage over countries in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula."

America’s New Quest for Adequate Nuclear Deterrence
By Patty-Jane Geller, The National Interest: “Being able to conduct a nuclear test is not the same as performing one.”

Reconsidering U.S. Preparedness for Protracted Conventional War
By Patrick Savage, Modern War Institute: "After two decades of focusing on counterinsurgency and counterterrorism, the U.S. Department of Defense has worked to reorient toward the possibility of conflict with a near-peer competitor. While the department has progressed in this area, one sub-set of preparation has been largely ignored . . ."

In Defense of ‘WMD’: A War of Words and the Challenge of Swarms
By Zachary Kallenborn, War on the Rocks: "While the term has clear flaws, it is still relevant. Getting the terminology right has real-world consequences: the applicability of the term to drone swarms and other future weapon systems has direct consequences for weapons deployment, weapons acquisition, decisions on the use of force, strategic planning, and the character of future battlefields."

China Refuses to Quit on the Philippines
By Derek Grossman, The Diplomat: "China may have missed a golden opportunity to see the VFA end, but Beijing is still determined to exploit gaps between the U.S. and its ally."

U.S., MENA:
Trump, Sisi Address Nile Dam Dispute and Libya War
By Bryant Harris, Al-Monitor: “President Donald Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi discussed by phone today the Libyan conflict and the Nile dam dispute with Ethiopia.”

COVID-19 and the Costs of Military Primacy
By Stephen Wertheim, RealClearDefense: “Before the pandemic, more and more Americans concluded that their country’s foreign policy was failing them."

How to Stop China Completing Its Takeover of the South China Sea
By Jeff Becker, The Strategist (ASPI): “China appears to be accelerating its campaign to control the South China Sea and the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea."

Four Transformational Steps the U.S. Army Should Take to Get Serious About Urban Operations
By John Spencer, Modern War Institute: "Conflict, instability, and political unrest are all more urban than ever before. Despite clear trends in the increasingly urban character of warfare, the US Army has not made any major changes to prepare for urban operations around the world."

JAPAN
With 30 Submarines, Japan Will Shape the Pacific’s Undersea Defenses
By Craig Hooper, Forbes: “ While America’s nuclear submarine fleet is incomparable, the United States is not the only nation with advanced undersea warfare capabilities."

Rebuild Confidence in Navy’s 7th Fleet
From The Post and Courier: "The fire that gutted a front-line Navy ship in San Diego last week will leave the military with fewer options for deploying vertical-landing F-35Bs in the Pacific region and weaken the United States’ ability to maintain navigational freedom in the disputed South China Sea."

The U.S. Is Out of Position in the Indo-Pacific Region
By Nathan Freier, John Schaus, Al Lord, Alison Goldsmith & Elizabeth Martin, Defense One: "A truly joint approach is needed, and the Army has several particular roles to play."

Fire in the Caucasus: Can It Be Extinguished?
By Stephen Blank, RealClearDefense: “On July 12, fighting broke out again in Nagorno-Karabakh. This war between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains unresolved. Thus, fighting periodically breaks out, causing loss of lives and property and inflaming the ever-tense political situation in the Caucasus.”

Verification After the New START Treaty: Back to the Future
By Bryan Smith, National Institute for Public Policy: “The President has appointed Ambassador Marshall Billingslea to serve as Special Envoy for Arms Control to engage with the Russians on both New START and the future of nuclear arms control. The President has stated that China’s nuclear forces should be included in future arms control agreements, and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ryabkov has made an earlier statement to the same effect. President Trump has also directed that nuclear weapons that are now unconstrained by New START, the so-called tactical nuclear weapons, also be included in a future agreement.”

Naval Power Is the Ultimate Strategic Enabler in Our Competition With China
By Seth Cropsey & Harry Halem, National Review: “Sea power gives the U.S. the necessary strategic flexibility to counter China in an uncertain environment."

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
U.S. Has Withdrawn From 5 Bases in Afghanistan After Taliban Agreement
By Justin Wise, The Hill: "The Defense Department announced Tuesday that U.S. troops have withdrawn from five military bases and reduced the size of its forces in Afghanistan as part of the agreement reached with Taliban in February."

LIBYA:
Is Proxy War Turning to Conventional Confrontation in Libya?
By Metin Gurcan, Al-Monitor: “Albeit late, Turkey seems to have finally understood the importance of diplomacy in Libya."

Civilian Control of the Military Is a Partisan Issue
By Ronald R. Krebs & Robert Ralston, Foreign Affairs: “But until very recently, the president’s regular breaches of civil-military norms have seemed to make little impression on the American public. Our research on public opinion helps explain why that is: many Americans don’t endorse important aspects of these norms, and their views on civil-military relations, like so much else in this polarized age, are heavily driven by party affiliation."

The Top 5 REALLY Important NDAA Policies
By Mackenzie Eaglen, Breaking Defense: “Much of the public debate about this year’s National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has focused on the renaming of U.S. military installations named for Confederates, banning the flying of the confederate flag, revision of the Insurrection Act, and preventing the use of defense dollars to build President Trump’s border wall."

Unpacking the Urban Fight: Introducing the Twelve Challenges
By Charles Knight, Grounded Curiosity: “As explained in the 2008 Future Land Operating Concept ambiguity and uncertainty have compounded since then as technology, population and social factors drive a shift that the Chief of Army describes as ‘Accelerated Warfare.'"

War Books: A Primer on Nuclear Weapons
By Matt Powers, Modern War Institute: "Despite the importance of having Army officers proficient in nuclear weapons planning, the service’s nuclear competency is mostly siloed within the ranks of the nuclear and counterproliferation functional area, with professional military education in nuclear matters largely nonexistent beyond select courses."

Assessing African Strategic Needs to Counter Undue Chinese Influence
By Damimola Olawuyi, Divergent Options: " As China expands its international footprint, it has deliberately increased its African ties."

Has China's Rise Peaked?
By Merrick “Mac” Carey, The National Interest: “Even though the Western mainstream view is that China is a military and economic dynamo that is quickly leaving America behind, the world may be turning against the Middle Kingdom, and Chinese leadership may be turning to a harsh brand of nationalism as a result. Its recent border clash with India in the high Himalayas and crackdown on free Hong Kong are the most recent manifestations of this."

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DEFENSE TRENDS LATE 2020

8/24/2020

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It’s Time to Take an Alliance-Based Approach to Securing Rare-Earths Supplies
By Genevieve Feely & Rhys De Wilde, The Strategist (ASPI): "China has dominated the world’s supply of rare-earth elements for decades. Over the past year, however, there has been a growing recognition among the U.S. and its allies (including Australia, South Korea, Japan and India) that sources of critical minerals outside of China need to be secured and that solutions need to be driven by governments rather than market forces, particularly since demand for these materials will skyrocket in the near future."

Can the U.S. Save Its Sealift Fleet?
By Alec Blivas, The Diplomat: "The U.S. sealift fleet is rapidly becoming obsolete, and both the Army and Navy have warned Congress that U.S. sealift capacity is in danger of collapsing."

Naval Warfare 2010–2020: A Comparative Analysis
By Jimmy Drennan, CIMSEC: “An analysis of warfighting trends over a decade could be performed by considering the major crises, conflicts, and tensions that took place, or by tracking the evolving force structure and operating concepts of global competitors."

The Hypersonic Hype and Russia’s Diminished Nuclear Threshold
By Pavel Felgenhauer, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "President Vladimir Putin used the July 26, 2020, Navy Day and the Main Navy Parade in St. Petersburg to once again promote Russia’s “superweapons,” which will ostensibly give the Russian Military-Maritime Fleet (Voyenno-Morskoy Flot—VMF) “a unique advantage” over its Western counterparts. According to Putin, “The deployment of advanced technologies that have no equals in the world, including hypersonic strike systems and underwater drones, will increase naval combat capabilities.”"

The U.S. Military Has Options Against China
By James Holmes, The Hill: “Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) is worried — worried about the U.S. Navy’s prospects during a war against Communist China in the Western Pacific. Last week, Sen. Gardner, who chairs the Senate Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy, told the Washington Examiner that Chinese ballistic missiles could compel “all of our planning, all of our equipment, all of our systems” to “basically vacate” the region at outset of fighting. Both large bases and ships riding the waves, he noted, are vulnerable to missile attack."

Assessing the Dependency of U.S. Below Threshold Competition on Department of State Modernization
By Matthew F. Smith, Divergent Options: “U.S. policymakers are deciding how to compete with the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and counteract their objectives. Given fiscal realities, the opportunity exists to rebalance current militaristic policy tendencies and force institutional reforms."

Raytheon and Rafael to Build Iron Dome in U.S.
By Jen Judson, Defense News: “Raytheon and Israeli-based Rafael Advanced Defense Systems have formed a joint venture to build the Iron Dome missile defense system in the United States, the companies announced August 3.”

China’s Rise Is Macarthur’s Vindication
By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: “In the midst of President Harry Truman’s controversial firing of General Douglas MacArthur during the Korean War, Air Force General George Kenny, who brilliantly led MacArthur’s air force in the Southwest Pacific in World War II, wrote that when the histories of the Korean War are written, they will "add still more to the luster of MacArthur's reputation as a military leader.""

Distilling the Essence of Strategy
By Frank Hoffman, War on the Rocks: "I am certain of one thing: Colin Gray would be exasperated with claims that “Grand strategy is dead.” What he would have called a “banality” is commonplace these days."

It’s Time for a Third Special Operations Revolution
By David Maxwell, Military Times: “The Senate Armed Service Committee report on the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) expresses the committee’s persistent concern with U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) and the need for stronger civilian oversight."

Sending Special Operations Forces into the Great-Power Competition
By Tim Nichols, Small Wars Journal: “What caused the strategic defeat of U.S. efforts in Syria? Was it the U.S. special operations forces overseeing the military effort? Certainly not."

War Books: Close Combat Lethality
By T.S. Allen, Modern War Institute: "One of the best noncommissioned officers I know was recently selected to join the Close Combat Lethality Task Force, an organization established by former Secretary of Defense James Mattis in 2018 to “improve the combat, lethality, survivability, resiliency and readiness of U.S. infantry squads.” No infantry squad ever won a skirmish by reading a book, but books certainly are handy when you’re trying to figure out how to improve institutions."

U.S., CHINA:
Chinese Nuclear Advancements Stoke Pentagon Fears of New 'Peer' Threat
By Yasmin Tadjdeh, National Defense Magazine: ““China is on a trajectory to be a strategic peer to us by the end of the decade,” said Adm. Charles Richard. “For the first time ever, the U.S. is going to face two peer capable nuclear competitors … who you have to deter differently," he said referring to China and Russia. "We have never faced that situation before.""

New Focus on China Fight Could Rob Marine Corps of Versatility
By Mallory Shelbourne, USNI News: "As the Marines reshape their force to take on the Chinese in the Western Pacific, some experts worry the new emphasis could leave the Marines fewer tools to operate in other parts of the world and fight different types of adversaries."

Guam’s Air Defense Should Learn Lessons From Japan’s Aegis Ashore
By Timothy A. Walton & Bryan Clark, Defense News: "The head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said last week his top priority is establishing an Aegis Ashore system on Guam by 2026. New air defenses will help protect U.S. citizens and forces in Guam; but as Japan’s government found, Aegis Ashore may not be the best option to protect military and civilian targets from growing and improving Chinese and North Korean missile threats."

America Can Protect Its Satellites Without Kinetic Space Weapons
By Aaron Bateman, War on the Rocks: “In 1978, Adm. Stansfield Turner, then the head of the Central Intelligence Agency, said that the “Russians can kill us in space.” Turner was referring to the Soviet Union’s kinetic anti-satellite weapons program."

Can China's Military Win the Tech War?
By Anja Manuel & Kathleen Hicks, Foreign Affairs: “Washington does need a strategy to strengthen its national security technology and industrial base, but it should be one that is centered on collaborative disruption that generates the right incentives for innovators, scientists, engineers, venture capitalists, and others."

Marines to Test Exoskeleton Suit That Can Do the Work of up to 10 Troops
By Gina Harkins, Military.com: "The Marine Corps is moving ahead with plans to test a wearable robotic exoskeleton that conjures up images of that power-loader suit Ellen Ripley wore to take down a space monster in the movie "Aliens.""

IRAN:
Iran Launches Underground Ballistic Missiles During Exercise
By Amir Vahdat & Jon Gambrell, The National Interest: “The world is steadily confronting the prospect of full-fledged Chinese domination in the world’s most important waterway, the South China Sea.”

Insurgency in the North Caucasus: Lessons of the First Chechen War
By Elina Driscoll, Small Wars Journal: "When Russian troops entered the rebellious Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in December 1994, the Yeltsin regime was confident that the Russo-Chechen conflict would end with Russia’s quick victory and territorial restoration of the Russian Federation. However, the war, which later became known as the First Chechen War, lasted for nearly two years, ended with the victory of Chechen militants, and led to the deaths of roughly 50,000 Chechens and about 6,000 Russian soldiers."

Oh God, Not the Peloponnesian War Again
By James Palmer, Foreign Policy: “Even when strategists move beyond Athens, they're still writing about Europe. In all the takes on the U.S.-China relationship, the history of Chinese warfare itself—and the vast span of Asian conflict, warfare, and political contention over the last 3,000 years—goes virtually unmentioned.”

Deglobalization and International Security
By Sarah Tenney, Strategy Bridge: "At the beginning of the last century, Theodore Roosevelt led the United States to great power status, leveled the playing field between business and labor, and called for the conservation of natural resources. He noted: "The one characteristic more essential than any other is foresight... It should be the growing nation with a future which takes the long look ahead.""

How China Was “Lost”:
Tracing a Problematic Discussion from the 1940s to the Present
By Ali Wyne, Modern War Institute: “Mao Zedong proclaimed the establishment of the People’s Republic of China on October 1, 1949. Coming just a month after the Soviet Union had tested an atomic bomb—roughly four years before the Central Intelligence Agency had forecast that Moscow would have the ability to produce one—that outcome seemed to reinforce that the supposed hegemony Washington had inherited with the conclusion of World War II was dubious, if not illusory."

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US WAR COMMAND DUMPS GERMANY FOR POLAND & HOW TO EVALUATE CHINA'S DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE

8/3/2020

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China’s defence-industry rankings: down but by no means out
In a new audit of global defence companies, Chinese state-owned enterprises seem to have slumped in the rankings. Despite appearances, we shouldn’t underestimate the strength of the Chinese defence technological and industrial base, argues Meia Nouwens.

BREAKING DEFENSE

Failure to Resolve the GERD Issue Portends a Global Crisis and Mass Migration

Pakistan a ‘safe haven’ for ‘terror groups’: U.S. State Department

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-wants-ownership-south-china-sea-heres-why-cant-happen-165070

Libya score-settling moves closer to Turkey’s borders
Turkey’s intervention in the Libyan war is driving its adversaries to retaliate beyond Libya in conflict zones along Turkey’s own borders.  Read More

Turkey’s lira slides as Central Bank raises inflation forecast
Despite state bank efforts to bolster Turkey’s currency, the lira fell to its lowest point since May against the dollar this week, prompting fears of a renewed currency crisis.  Read More

Israel facing tensions on northern, southern borders
The IDF is now worried not only about escalating tensions on the Syrian and Lebanese borders but also about growing tensions along the border with the Gaza Strip.

It’s time for a third special operations revolution  David Maxwell | Senior Fellow
United Arab Emirates: UAE Urges Turkey to Stay Out of Arab Affairs.  An Emirati official on Saturday urged Turkey to stop interfering in Arab affairs after Turkey condemned “malicious” actions by the United Arab Emirates in Libya.  Anwar Gargash, Emirati minister of state for foreign affairs, said that Turkey should not behave like “the Sublime Porte and use the language of colonialism,” which refers to the Ottoman Empire which used to rule the Arab world.  In Libya, Turkey supports the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord, while the United Arab Emirates supports Khalifa Haftar with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Russia.  Dunya News Reuters

United Arab Emirates: UAE Starts Nuclear Power Plant. The United Arab Emirates has started its first nuclear reactor at the Barakah plant, which is operated by the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation and Korea Electric Power Corporation. Experts have raised concerns about environmental consequences as well as the potential for a regional nuclear arms race. The United Arab Emirates is the first Arab country to open a nuclear power plant, but stated that it will only be used for energy purposes. Israel and Iran are the other regional powers with nuclear capabilities. Al Jazeera The New York Times

This shaped the selection of the past two Chiefs of Naval Operations, including Adm. Michael Gilday, who was just a three-star when he was picked for the Navy's top job a year ago. In an hour-long interview, the CNO told Ignatius that he believes his service's problems stem from a decline in professional competency and a rise in character lapses. "Gilday says he wants to reboot the Navy's core culture, which begins with proficiency at sea. The Navy's operations tempo has been so stretched over the past two decades that officers and sailors don't have time to learn good seamanship and navigation. The sea is unforgiving; it magnifies the smallest mistakes. And sadly, in this stressed fleet, too many have cut ethical corners." Read on, here.

How Can We Know if Professional Military Education Works? by Megan J. Hennessey

Libya’s Hifter warns Erdogan: Stay out of Libya or you face our bullets
Eastern Libya’s military strongman Khalifa Hifter warned Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday to stay out of Libya, saying that Turkish forces will be met “with bullets.” The threat comes as Turkey and Hifter’s main rival, the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli, are pressing a counteroffensive to repel the eastern general’s forces from the key coastal city of Sirte, gateway to much of Libya’s coveted oil reserves. Turkey has deployed thousands of rebels from Syria to fight alongside forces loyal to the GNA. Apparently in response, Russia has introduced fighter aircraft into the conflict in recent months. Meanwhile, Egypt has threatened to militarily intervene on Hifter’s side if the GNA should advance on Sirte and al-Jufra. Along with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia also back Hifter. On Sunday, a spokesman for the GNA said Russian-made cargo planes carried new military shipments to Hifter’s forces in Sirte and al-Jufra. Read More arabnews.com

US: China’s relations with Iran will ‘destabilize’ Middle East
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday that China’s proposed economic and security partnership with Iran would destabilize the Middle East and put Washington’s close partners in the region, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, at risk. “China’s entry into Iran will destabilize the Middle East,” Pompeo said on Fox News on Sunday morning, in apparent reference to a proposed deal obtained by The New York Times last month. “It’ll put Israel at risk. It’ll put the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates at risk as well,” Pompeo said Sunday. The Trump administration has sought to strangle Iran’s supply of cash and its ability to produce and export weapons systems, particularly ballistic missiles, since Washington withdrew from the 2015 international nuclear agreement with Tehran. How serious Beijing’s draft agreement with Tehran really is remains tobe seen, but the proposal would significantly expand China’s involvement in Iran’s telecommunications, banking and transportation infrastructure.
Read More
state.gov

Michael Oakeshott’s Dialogic Imagination
by Emina Melonic
Without taking into consideration a metaphysical make-up of human beings and the world that surrounds them, comprehending political life will be difficult, Read More »

Havel and the Ideological Temptation

ICYMI: China Has Squandered Its First Great Opportunity
By Richard Fontaine
The world has experienced a six-month geopolitical vacuum, and China has filled it poorly.

It’s time for a US Navy port call in Somaliland
Michael Rubin | RealClearDefense
It is rare that a simple action could win a policy trifecta, but sending a destroyer or cruiser to the port of Berbera could achieve just that

Israel Versus Anyone: A Military Net Assessment of the Middle East
By Kenneth S. Brower, August 2, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: This shows that, as compared to Israeli military capability, neither the US nor Russia can project meaningful conventional military power into the Middle East unless they are provided with both many months to mobilize and a lack of opposition during the long process of deployment. This conclusion implies that any US-proposed mutual defense treaty offered to Israel would be militarily meaningless. Moreover, the study shows that, over the long term, any such treaty would actually result in significantly diminished Israeli national security.
Continue to full article ->

Can Hezbollah and Israel Avoid War? by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
July 30, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61345/hezbollah-complicated-strategic-calculus

AFRICOM ordered to plan move out of Germany, latest pullout from key European ally
(Military Times) U.S. Africa Command has been ordered to make plans to move out of its headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany, its commander announced in an early morning media release.

US Strategic Command now analyzes daily deterrence risks for all combatant commands
(Defense News) In the last six months, U.S. Strategic Command has begun performing daily analysis on the state of nuclear deterrence in each of the regional combatant commands, STRATCOM commander Adm. Charles Richard said Thursday.

Army examining basing options for new weapons in Indo-Pacific
(National Defense) The Army continues to analyze options for basing new long-range precision weapons in the Indo-Pacific region, to be used by one of its new multi-domain task forces, the service's top officer said July 31.

China’s J-20 carrier-based jet fighter influenced by US – not Soviet – thinking, designer says
(South China Morning Post) As tensions between Beijing and Washington continue to rise, China’s military aircraft designers are racing to develop a next-generation fighter jet for use on the nation’s aircraft carriers capable of competing with their American rivals.

Time for Turkey to call in the International Monetary Fund
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

Despite macroeconomic mismanagement and the embrace of highly unorthodox economic ideas, Turkey has skirted crisis for some time. However, since the onset of COVID-19, the tide has suddenly turned. It may be time for Turkey to call in the International Monetary Fund.

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pentagon acquisition reform

REFORM FOR GREAT POWER COMPETITION BEGINS & RUSSIA ESCALATES OVER THE BLACK SEA

PENTAGON TRENDS IN WAR FIGHTING

DEFENSE TRENDS LATE 2020

US WAR COMMAND DUMPS GERMANY FOR POLAND & HOW TO EVALUATE CHINA'S DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE

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