TRENDS IN GEOPOLITICS
​WAR AFTER UKRAINE- WOR

The 10 Most Widely Read Middle East Forum Articles of 2022
News from the Middle East Forum
https://www.meforum.org/64050/top-ten-middle-east-forum-articles-of-2022

Expert Commentary on the 2022 National Security Strategy
Colin Dueck | National Institute for Public Policy
The 2022 National Security Strategy is problematic. A better approach would begin by clarifying vital US national interests in plain English, laying out threats to those interests, and then describing the necessary policies to follow.
Full Story

Here We Go Again: Take Defense off the Table.

Give Legacy Weapons a New Lease on Life
Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas

Looking Back at President Biden’s Foreign Policy

Summer 2022 Issue

THE MILITARY BALANCE 2023

GLOBAL DEFENSE SPENDING 2023

Bizarro Supply-Side Economics
Notwithstanding the rhetoric of White House officials, the Democratic Party continues to subsidize demand and constrain supply.

Mercenary Shocks: What the War in Ukraine Will Eventually Mean for Africa,

• WINEP’s Eric Feely: The State of the Union and the Middle East
  

WOR:  ARCHIVE 2023

WOR:  RE-WRITING ACQUISITION

Report Finds Imbalance Between Defense Strategies, Industrial Base Capacity
By Mikayla Easley, National Defense Magazine: "U.S. national security policies and financial investments are not aligned to support the defense industrial base’s need to support great power competition, according to a new report released Feb. 8."
​
Defense Primer:  U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces
From Congressional Research Service: "The United States has reaffirmed the value of the nuclear triad. The Obama Administration noted, in the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), that the unique characteristics of each leg of the triad were important to the goal of maintaining strategic stability at reduced numbers of warheads."

What’s Behind Proposed Changes to US Marine Deployments in Okinawa?
By Christopher Edward Carroll, The Diplomat: " Japan and the U.S. are actively taking note of changes in China’s naval and air capabilities in the region and making changes of their own."

Extended Deterrence, and Adjusting for the Multipolar Environment:
The Way Forward
By Michaela Dodge, National Institute for Public Policy: "The United States is facing new challenges in trying to assure allies and deter revisionist adversaries, most notably Russia, China, and North Korea."

The US Military Is in Decline. Cutting Defense Spending Would Be a Disaster.
Mackenzie Eaglen | 19fortyfive.com
As House Republicans continue to bandy about a major cut to the US military’s budget next year, Mackenzie Eaglen asks: Why would they arbitrarily pick a top-line budget number that is not threat-informed? Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) seems to think that returning budgets to 2022 levels is simply going back to “what we were spending just two or three weeks ago.” No. Returning to 2022 spending levels for 2024 is much more than a $75 billion cut for the US military. Once more accurate inflation data are available, it will be clear that the House GOP is proposing a defense cut well north of $100 billion. The result of this shortsighted and unserious proposal would be nearly immediate and create a much less capable force. Read more here. >>

12 Problems Harming Defense Innovation
William C. Greenwalt | AEIdeas
As the US wrestles with a rapidly changing security environment, creating new military capabilities to counter growing threats is essential. William C. Greenwalt shows that defense leaders are being forced to relearn that one cannot just turn on a spigot and obtain weapons on demand. Industrial base constraints reliably manifest themselves in multiyear lead times, which Americans are seeing today in the effort to replace munitions used in Ukraine. The quandary, however, is much greater than just reconstituting peacetime stocks of existing systems. Any impending conflict, or perhaps more optimistically any deterred future conflict, will require not only production at scale but also innovation at a scale not seen since WWII and the early Cold War. Continue here. >>

For Better Defense Spending, Split the Pentagon’s Budget in Two
Mackenzie Eaglen | Hill
Many states in America have two separate budgets: one for capital expenses and another for operating activities. Separating investments from the costs of annual operations means long-term capital improvement projects are not seen as deficit drivers. Mackenzie Eaglen explains that it is time to separate the Defense Department’s capital and operating budgets. By making important and necessary funds for pay and benefits into mandatory spending, policymakers will have a clearer understanding of where defense dollars go and how much of the defense budget actually buys direct military capability. This method will go a long way toward ensuring the military receives what it genuinely needs to execute its central mission to defend the nation. Continue here. >>

Matching Defense Budget to Strategy
Elaine McCusker and Emily Coletta | AEIdeas
As we await the release of the President’s fiscal year 2024 budget request to Congress in early March, chatter continues on Capitol Hill about potentially irresponsible and dangerous cuts to defense. Elaine McCusker and Emily Coletta show that such speculation directly contradicts bipartisan support for the recently passed defense budget. There is a false belief that the Pentagon can reform or save its way out of the current budget hole. It cannot. American should be unwilling to accept any budget plan that threatens to repeat the costly mistakes of the Budget Control Act era. To this end, representatives on Capitol Hill can lead this year by reaching a budget agreement now that will allow enactment of regular appropriations bills before the start of the fiscal year. Learn more here. >>

Don’t Just Target Terrorists. Deny Them Safe Havens.
Katherine Zimmerman | Hill
Recent American raids against the Islamic State (IS) in Somalia add to a growing series of operations to capture or kill those involved in plotting transnational attacks. Katherine Zimmerman argues that while targeting high-value individuals within IS weakens it, raids and airstrikes will not be enough to win this fight. IS has routinized its leadership succession to overcome rapid losses, which means the US must refocus on denying terrorists the safe havens needed to recruit and plan for attacks. Washington’s hesitancy to do more than targeting for fear of overcommitting resources again is letting terrorists regroup. Suppressing terrorist networks is not a permanent solution; it requires constant resources to monitor and prevent attacks. 
Read more here. >>

Letter to a Young Essayist

China in Our Backyard –  A Wakeup Call
By Miguel Alejandro Laborde, RealClearDefense: “. . . in March of 2022, USSOUTHCOM Commander General Richardson provided, in illuminating and stark detail, a number of concerns and threats both resident and growing in the Southern Command Area of Responsibility (AOR)."

The Fed’s Quantitative Easing Gamble Costs Taxpayers Billions

The Looming Debt-Ceiling Crisis Is Too Big for the Fed to Ignore

Defense Funding—Highlights from Fiscal Year 2023 to Inform Fiscal Year 2024
Elaine McCusker | AEIdeas

AEI ELAINE McCUSKER

AEI ELIZABETH BRAW 

AEI 9 PRESIDENTIAL ACCOMMODATIONS FOR CHINA POLICY

SCMP, CHINA HAS NO TROOPS FOR HI TECH
​INDIA TODAY, CHINA SHORT SUPPLY OF HUMAN CAPITAL FOR WAR
​THE PLA PEOPLE PROBLEM
​CHINA MISSILE REPORT

Is the “China Model” Finally Failing?
Dalibor Rohac | Bulwark
While forecasting autocratic breakdowns or gradual liberalization of dictatorial regimes is a fool’s errand, human yearning for freedom is real and irrepressible—especially once already tasted. If we are lucky, we may see its fruit in our lifetimes, in China and beyond.

Find the full NDAA text (PDF) here. Or review a summary from congressional leaders, here. ​

Three Cheers for the Defense Policy Bill
Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas
The recently released defense policy bill—which authorizes end-strength levels, delivers oversight, and provides funding guidance for the Defense Department—is a much-needed vote of confidence in the US military.
Full Story

​

• Army end strength has been reduced to 452,000 troops, which is down from last year's overly ambitious 485,000 target, which the service missed in part by recruiting about 15,000 fewer troops than expected this past fiscal year; 
• The Marines are also expected to shrink, though by a lot less—177,000 for the year ahead, compared to 178,500 authorized the year prior; 
• The Air Force will shrink by about 4,000 airmen, falling to 325,344 compared to 329,220 this year; 
• In contrast, the Navy has been tasked with adding about 7,000 sailors, raising last year's total from 346,920 to 354,000; 
• And the Space Force will add about 200 Guardians, rising to about 8,600 troops in the newest branch of the armed forces. 

In terms of planes and ships, etc., five F-35A jets are expected, as well as 15 F-35Bs, and 16 F-35Cs. Ten more HH-60W helicopters and four EC-37B Compass Call aircraft are also newly funded in the bill. And more than $32 billion has been set aside for new ships, including 11 "battle force" vessels—three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers; two Virginia-class submarines; two expeditionary fast transports; one Constellation-class frigate; one San Antonio-class amphibious ship; one John Lewis-class oiler; and one Navajo-class towing, salvage, and rescue ship.

Sudan's transition deal seen as significant, but doubts remain
 Protesters and some observers are skeptical the agreement will end the political crisis in the east African country, but the United States and Gulf states have praised the deal.

The new National Defense Strategy keeps the Pentagon’s focus locked on China

MACKENZIE EAGLEN 1945

2022 National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review
From USNI News: “Key Points and the entire document provided by USNI News.”

Fixing Defense Innovation: Rewriting Acquisition and Security Regulations, Jules Hurst

That's it? Biden's Overdue Pentagon Strategy Underwhelms

DoD Releases 2022 Strategic Reviews.  The US Department of Defense released the unclassified versions of three key strategic reviews – the National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review and Missile Defense Review.  The Pentagon said it conducted reviews in an integrated way for the first time to coordinate defense efforts.  The NDS focuses on deterrence against China – making it a clear priority over Russia – and collaboration with US allies and partners.  The document also mentions an “integrated deterrence” approach to non-military attacks and gray zone threats.  The NPR largely maintains US nuclear policy, though it does remove the “hedging against an uncertain future” role of nuclear weapons and scraps a nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile system – moves that may signal that the US will place more emphasis on conventional means for nuclear deterrence given recent threats of nuclear escalation with Russia over the Ukraine war.  Atlantic Council New York Times Reuters US Department of Defense

China's Nuclear Arsenal Will Become an Existential Threat to US, Biden Administration Declares // Marcus Weisgerber: New nuclear strategy deletes one new U.S. weapon, keeps the rest.
That's it? Biden's Overdue Pentagon Strategy Underwhelms // Kevin Baron: After nearly two years, experts were hoping for more.

Of Politics and Power
By Seth Cropsey, RealClearDefense: “Queen Elizabeth Reminds Us of the Alternatives to our Jacobin Age."

There’s a Battle Between Autocracy and Democracy in America’s Backyard and Democracy Is Losing
By Cam McMillan, RealClearDefense: "Daniel Ortega, the former Sandinista revolutionary, has devolved Nicaragua into an authoritarian state at the expense of Nicaraguans and the region."

The Constitution and National Unity
Yuval Levin | National Review
In the struggle to forge solidarity in our divided society, the Constitution is not the problem but the solution.

​How China Views It: Sino-American Technology Competition
Dan Blumenthal, Gregory Graff, and Christian Curriden | American Enterprise Institute
These two reports are based on research projects from the Hertog Foundation National Security & Sino-American Technology Competition fellowship, led by AEI Senior Fellow Dan Blumenthal.

A Strategy of Distribution for Addressing the People’s Liberation Army of 2025–30
Eric Sayers | National Bureau of Asian Research

Turkey: A NATO Ally?

​Assessing military cyber maturity: Strategy, institutions, and capability
Jason Blessing | International Institute for Strategic Studies
This paper offers insights into how the governance and organizational factors of domestic politics facilitate or inhibit the dissemination of cyber concepts and capabilities throughout military forces beyond the main signals or cyber-intelligence agency.

It’s time for Pentagon to prioritize near-term acquisition fixes over systemic change
Former Pentagon official Jeff Bialos says with less than three years for an undersecretary of acquisition and sustainment to do their job, they need to focus on triage efforts.

The decline in defense purchasing power and the transformation of the Pentagon into a social program
William C. Greenwalt | AEIdeas
The vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. John Hyten, recently outlined a condition that is now too big to ignore: Defense purchasing power is so anemic that the Pentagon struggles to get any increase in defense capability for all the taxpayer money spent. Even worse, capability has been eroded to the point that our adversaries are now at parity with the US — and the situation is not getting any better, points out William Greenwalt. We will need radical regulatory relief and management reforms to dig ourselves out of this hole. Read More >>

Huawei’s decline shows why China will struggle to dominate
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
Two years ago, Chinese telecom giant Huawei was set to control global 5G, symbolizing Beijing's rise to technological primary. But now its goal is survival, notes Hal Brands. Huawei’s decline shows how China is often its own worst enemy, as its global assertiveness makes its rivals multiply. It represents bipartisan effectiveness, and it shows that the US has the tools, and can assemble the strategy, to win a high-tech rivalry with China — provided Washington can avoid losing crucial near-term battles first. Read More >>

Evergrande and more important things
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
While some claim that the Evergrande debacle is another “Lehman moment,” they misunderstand a crucial distinction: The Chinese financial system is largely not commercial; it’s largely a government arm, points out Derek Scissors. The true risk, however, is that Beijing's interference in finance is increasing, as seen by the New Bank of International Settlements, which shows that China’s large credit share of gross domestic product (GDP) is falling in the first quarter. While that’s partly due to artificially fast GDP out of the pandemic, Beijing is also limiting lending and direct government borrowing this year. If sustained, this would be far more important than Evergrande. Read More >

Stronger Deterrence Will Avoid War Over Taiwan
By Peter Jennings, The Strategist (ASPI): "The Taiwanese assess perhaps a three-year time frame before an attack, while U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Honolulu considers a military assault in six years to be possible."

t’s a mistake to think some jihadis are only focused on the ‘local’
Emily Estelle | The Hill
There is a false assumption behind the Joe Biden administration's decision to abandon counterterrorism: Jihadist groups with local ambitions do not have international goals. Relying on this false assumption blinds us to the growing threat in Afghanistan and the danger of other "Islamic emirates" proliferating worldwide, explains Emily Estelle. The rapid growth of African Salafi-jihadi groups is one of the most alarming trends of the past decade. Accommodating these groups will not stop them from attacking us. The only long-term solution is to uproot and discredit them. Read More >>

Senate Commission to Fix Defense Budgeting Is Right on the Mark by John Whitley and Gregory Pejic

Continuing Resolutions Could Extend Well into 2022
By Jon Harper, National Defense Magazine: “We’re in the final days of September, and once again the federal government Is set to start a new fiscal year under a continuing resolution — or a government shutdown — because Congress failed to pass a full-year appropriations bill by Oct. 1. However, this time around, the CRs may last much longer than usual."
​
U.S. Military Eyes Prototype Mobile Nuclear Reactor in Idaho
By Keith Ridler, AP: “The lab is considered the nation’s leading nuclear research lab, and has multiple facilities to aid in building and testing the microreactor.”

Uncovering the French Origins of COIN
By M.L. deRaismes Combes, Classics of Strategy and Diplomacy: ". . . counterinsurgency as a discrete military (and political) practice dates even further back—to the nineteenth century and to the height of European imperialism. "

Four Steps to a Successful Quad Leaders’ Summit
By Hayley Channer, The Strategist (ASPI): "Due to the timing, more links are being drawn between AUKUS and the Quad than may have occurred had the two events been further apart. With AUKUS still very fresh, Japan and India will expect additional detail about the deal and reassurance from Australia and the U.S."

The U.S. Should Strengthen Its Relationship With India
to Keep China and the Taliban in Check
By Mark Green, RealClearDefense: “By helping India upgrade its defense systems, the United States can empower India to defend itself, as well as provide security in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific region. This is all the more important since the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban."

Understanding China’s Military Spending
By Richard A. Bitzinger & James Char, The National Interest: “Where China’s military build-up is concerned, adding some context to make up for the lack of transparency in its annual budget provides us with a better—albeit still limited—appreciation of the People’s Liberation Army budgetary allocations."

Curing the Administrative State
by robert r. gasaway
Our administrative state's ills cannot be treated with homespun remedies.
READ MORE ›

A US defense budget that makes China smile
Mackenzie Eaglen | 19fortyfive.com
A larger workforce of Department of Defense civilians is no substitute for service members.
Full Story

The Biden defense budget: The good, the bad, and the ugly
​Elaine McCusker
RealClearDefense

To Biden Administration: Record of Iran's Top "Moderate" Mullah
by Majid Rafizadeh

The Navy must choose between developing a next-generation fighter, a destroyer, or a submarine, acting Secretary Thomas Harker said in a June 4 memo posted by USNI News this week. "The Navy cannot afford to simultaneously develop the next generation of air, surface, and subsurface platforms and must prioritize these programs, balancing the cost of developing next-generation capabilities against maintaining current capabilities," the memo states.

The Air Force said GE can 3D print

It's the Government Accountability Office's annual assessment of the Pentagon's major weapon programs. ​

​FLAVIO FELICE
Debt and Democracy
Madison and Jefferson can still offer us sage counsel for our heavily indebted times.

The Broken Road to Military Professionalism
by j. furman daniel iii
Wooster’s book is an examination of the fundamental debates regarding the role of the military in American society.
READ MORE ›

Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Way Forward
In a new policy briefing book, entitled The Biden Administration and the Middle East: Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Way Forward, MEI scholars tackle a large number of country-specific and region-wide issue areas, laying out both the abiding U.S. interests and specific recommendations for Biden administration policies that can further U.S. interests amid a region in turmoil.
Read Briefing Book

Winter 2020/2021 Issue

After last year’s crisis, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia pursue a reset
Read article

China and Military Power through Artificial Intelligence  by Peter Schweizer

Competing in time: How the Department of Defense is losing the innovation race to China
Despite reforms, the Pentagon and Congress have failed to break out of a Cold War, central-planning model that has stifled innovation, writes William Greenwalt. A radical overhaul of the entire defense management system is now required. Time is of the essence.
READ MORE

question the stealth fighter's role. "What does the F-35 give us? Is there a way to cut our losses? Is there a way to not keep spending so much money for such a low capability, because the sustainment costs are brutal," Smith said at a Brookings Institution event on Friday.

The F-35 is the largest, most expensive Pentagon program —ever— so it certainly has a target on its back now that Democrats control Congress and there is a Dem in the White House and are expected to cut defense spending in the coming years. But that's no easy feat since F-35 parts are made in 45 U.S. states and a number of foreign partners, which will certainly weigh in on the minds of lawmakers. Nine countries are already flying the plane too.

Small Number of States Dominate Defense Spending
By Jon Harper, National Defense Magazine: "A huge portion of U.S. defense spending is going to contractors and military personnel based in just a handful of states, according to data recently released by the Pentagon."

The Military Balance 2021, on our website.

Global defence-spending on the up, despite economic crunch
Notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent 3.5% contraction in global economic output in 2020, global defence-spending was resilient with real growth matching the higher rate achieved in 2019. However, even with a potential uplift in European spending, this increase could slow in 2021 as the defence budget of the United States flattens and growth in Asia-Pacific slows. Read Fenella McGerty's analysis in full. 

Editor's Introduction.

US Intelligence and the Dilemma of Iran
By Erfan Fard, February 26, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The rogue regime in Tehran is the primary source of turmoil and instability in the Middle East. The regime thirsts for ever more dominance across the region and beyond and employs a terrorist network to achieve that goal, even as it continues to move aggressively in its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The threat of Iran, combined with the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Syria, has prompted the creation of an anti-Iran coalition. It is now up to the Biden administration, which has no desire to become involved in a military conflict with Iran, to determine the best course of action in dealing with a regime that persistently challenges all accepted norms of behavior.
Continue to full article ->

Navigating the Shoals of Renewed American Naval Power: Imperatives for the Next Secretary of the Navy by Bryan Durkee and Chris Bassler

 Janet Yellen and the return of the bond vigilantes
Desmond Lachman | The National Interest 
 
Today's global credit and asset bubble is premised on the assumption that US interest rates will remain at low levels indefinitely. This could change quickly if inflation fears due to the president's expansive stimulus package push rates up. The market for US government bonds could be an early signal of trouble ahead. 

 Biden must not repeat Trump’s trade policy mistakes
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
 
President Joe Biden has inherited a US and global economy in much worse shape than did President Donald Trump. As such, Biden cannot afford to repeat the same trade policy mistakes that the Trump administration made if he wishes to arrest the worldwide drift to protectionist policies that threaten US and global prosperity.

How To Overcome Weaknesses in the Western Way of Sea War
By James Holmes, 1945: “The question put to me for today is: what are some aspects of the Western way of maritime war that opponents can exploit?" 

America’s Approach Towards Iran
By Ehud Eilam, Wavell Room: "What should President Biden’s strategy towards Iran look like?  It is a crucial matter which might bring a nuclear arms race to the Middle East and maybe even a nuclear war.  Israel and Arab states are also very concerned about Iran and about its regional ambitions and long-range missile project.  All of that has to be addressed by negotiation while retaining a military option should the talks reach a dead end."

Global Defence-Spending on the Up, Despite Economic Crunch
By Fenella McGerty, IISS: “Notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent 3.5% contraction in global economic output in 2020, global defence-spending was resilient with real growth matching the higher rate achieved in 2019. However, even with a potential uplift in European spending, this increase could slow in 2021 as the defence budget of the United States flattens and growth in Asia-Pacific slows."

Competing in time: Ensuring capability advantage and mission success through adaptable resource allocation
William C. Greenwalt and Dan Patt | Hudson Institute
The keystone of the Department of Defense’s (DOD) institutional architecture is not acquisition, but rather the budgeting process. Congress and the DOD need to cooperate to overhaul the resource-allocation process to allow the United States to compete with other nations such as China.  Full Story   

What are China’s leaders saying about the South China Sea?
Oriana Skylar Mastro | The Lowy Institute

Who’s Who in Defense: Kathleen Hicks, Deputy Secretary Of Defense
Part of a special Breaking Defense reference series profiling key defense decision-makers in the new administration and Congress.

Turkish Reforms: From Imperial Repression to Thuggish State  by Burak Bekdil  

Iran's Role in Yemen: US, EU Go Wobbly  by Majid Rafizadeh

Explosions over Riyadh as CENTCOM commander visits region
 No group has yet claimed credit for the blasts, which came three days after the Saudi military said it shot down an enemy projectile over Riyadh.

Present at the Drone War’s Creation
By Benjamin Runkle, RealClearDefense: “. . . despite the current vogue for railing against the bureaucratic "Deep State," Never Mind shows how much of the implementation of grand strategy and policy relies on nameless, faceless patriots for success." ​

Restoring Thucydides
By William D. Burghart, Strategy Bridge: “. . . Thucydides’ text is not a machine into which modern problems can be plugged in and answers calculated.” 

Theseus, Daedalus and Icarus
By Roger Ranger, Wavell Room: “The potential non-kinetic military effects of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the battlefield."

Turning the JLTV Into a Science Fair Dangerous for Warfighters
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “There’s a longstanding ritual among defense contractors and pundits when a new president takes office. They try to convince the incoming administration that their priorities are a good match for its agenda.” ​

Declassification of Secret Document Reveals U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific
By Rory Medcalf, The Strategist (ASPI): “The U.S. government has just declassified one of its most sensitive national security documents—its 2018 strategic framework for the Indo-Pacific, which was formally classified SECRET and not for release to foreign nationals.” ​

Army Revamps Acquisition Strategy for Bradley Replacement
By Stew Magnuson, National Defense Magazine: “The Army has come up with a new acquisition strategy in its decades-long effort to replace the Bradley Fighting Vehicle.”
Marines, Navy Moving Quickly on Light Amphib, Anti-Ship Missiles
By Megan Eckstein, USNI News: “The Navy and Marine Corps are quickly seeking new ideas that allow Marines to support the Navy in sea control and other maritime missions, including the rapid acquisition of a light amphibious ship and a movement toward using Marine weapons while at sea.”
U.S. Navy’s Plan To Stop Its String of Shipbuilding Failures
By David Larter, Defense News: “The U.S. Navy’s top officer has laid down the gauntlet: The service must deliver two new classes of surface ships on time.

The Death of Critical Thinking in the Military? Here’s How to Fix It.
By Steve Ferenzi, RealClearDefense: “Traditional American military culture diametrically opposes divergent thought.” ​

Restart, Reset or Renew? The Strategy against Iranian Nuclear Ambition  by Peter Schweizer 

America’s Military Needs an Innovation Overhaul
By David McCormick & James Cunningham, Fast Company: “If confirmed as Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin would inherit a Pentagon that has lost its technological edge. But it isn’t too late to fight back, two national security experts write.” ​

AI In The Grey Zone: Afghan Lessons For Great Power Conflict
Artificial intelligence developed to hunt terrorists can help track Russian and Chinese targets as well – especially amidst murky, chaotic conflicts in the “grey zone” between peace and open war.

Moving Beyond A2/AD
By Chris Dougherty, Center for a New American Security: “For at least a decade, A2/AD has helped focus the Department of Defense (DoD) on critical Chinese and Russian threats to U.S. military operations in East Asia and eastern Europe. Today, however, it has outlived its usefulness as a diagnosis of Chinese and Russian approaches to warfare and as a framework for guiding subsequent operational and force-planning decisions based on the challenges they pose.” ​

Last week, the US Congress passed a bipartisan $741 billion defense bill, known as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Both chambers passed the NDAA with a veto-proof majority after President Donald Trump threatened to veto the legislation. The 2021 NDAA allocates $2.2 billion to create the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a program aimed to bolster US capabilities and alliances in the Asian-Pacific region. The NDAA will also fund additional attack submarines to counter Chinese maritime forces and will finance a new director of cybersecurity position intended to make the Pentagon less dependent on Chinese technology. In speaking of the NDAA’s 43 Asia-related provisions, AEI’s Zack Cooper notes, “The 2021 NDAA contains dozens of provisions on Asia and China, including the most important piece of legislation on Asia in years: the Pacific Deterrence Initiative. But what is yet to be seen is whether the US will shift defense resources accordingly. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative’s $2.2 billion in funding is a relatively small shift within the larger defense budget and has not yet been appropriated. To keep pace with China's military modernization, the United States will need to make more fundamental changes, and do so quickly." What other changes does the US need to make to handle China's challenge? What challenges will a new director of cybersecurity face as they try to cooperate with US tech companies? ​

​US-China rivalry is turning toward Central Asia, Africa, and Central America. China’s ambitions in developing countries require a concerted response, points out Hal Brands in a Bloomberg op-ed. Enhanced US coordination with Japan, Australia, and the EU would allow leading democracies to deploy their combined resources to strengthen third world growth. The geography of great-power competition is shifting, and succeeding in the developing world will require more than good luck. Learn more here.

Four New Weapons That Will Define the Biden Defense Posture
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “Predicting the defense priorities of a new administration, especially one that hasn’t yet taken office, is a risky business. Although Joe Biden has a long and fairly consistent track record on national security, the fallout from a global pandemic and disrupted economy may drive changes in military plans that few observers are expecting."

The power of combatant commanders continues to grow as the demand for forces exceeds supply. Demand signals from combatant commanders must be reconciled with the challenges facing each military branch under flat or declining budgets, argues Mackenzie Eaglen in a War on the Rocks op-ed. Fortunately, reform is possible. Determining proper levels of support for combatant commanders and convincing Congress of these decisions is a tall order. The Pentagon can improve these conversations by ensuring that lawmakers are adequately informed. Read more here.

The postelection shake-up at the Pentagon has raised alarms in the national security world. In an Atlantic article, Kori Schake theorizes what the administration is doing. The president is either organizing security forces to keep himself in power, planning a preemptive military strike on Iran, or placing factotums who will have authority over documents possibly linking him to Russia’s 2016 election interference, or the president has vengeful intentions. A responsible president would underscore the strength of US defense agencies during the presidential transition. But that’s not the commander in chief we have. Continue here.

There are three important things to consider before a new Congress makes any hasty decisions about national security. In a RealClearDefense op-ed, Elaine McCusker explains that Congress must examine federal spending, consider actual defense costs when examining discretionary spending, and pursue opportunities to capture lost buying power. Inclusive federal spending options that incrementally realign resources from the Department of Defense to those who hold the mission, along with aggressive and creative entitlement reform, would inform and improve choices available to elected officials. Learn more here.

In gray-zone conflicts, police don’t have the skills to bring peace, and full-scale military interventions can escalate. A force that can bring stability is needed. Gendarmerie forces, with their unique blend of policing and military expertise, may be a perfect answer to the troubles facing countries, argues Elisabeth Braw in a Foreign Policy op-ed. While not many other countries want to launch a gendarmerie, all would benefit from mastering the gendarmes’ core skill of keeping order in the gray zone, both at home and in international hot spots. Read here.

Air Force Chief's Surprising Top Modernization Priorities
By Valerie Insinna, Defense News: “The U.S. Air Force is spending tens of billions of dollars every year to buy new aircraft, including F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, KC-46 tankers, the T-7A trainer jet and more. But none of those platforms makes the list of Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown’s top three modernization priorities."

US Urgently Needs to Challenge China's Chokehold on Rare Earth Materials
by Lawrence A. Franklin  

Russian Strategic and Hypersonic Naval Nuclear Weapons
By Mark B. Schneider, RealClearDefense: “ Russia sets its highest value on its strategic nuclear forces.” ​

Manning Still Matters: A Fleet Perspective
By Paul Kingsbury, USNI Blog: “It has now been three years since the Comprehensive Review of Surface Force Incidents was conducted to find root causes underlying ship mishaps in the Western Pacific."

The Shield of the Indo-Pacific
By William J. Bowers & Thomas D. Wood, Proceedings: “Investment in Indo-Pacific installations is a strategic imperative."

Teaching Technology, Innovation, and Modern War at Stanford, Part 6:
Cyber and Space
By Steve Blank, Modern War Institute: “The way we are going about creating safety and security online in cybersecurity and defending against cybercrime isn’t quite rational.” ​

On Obedience:
Contrasting Philosophies for the Military, Citizenry, and Community
By Jim Golby, Strategy Bridge: "On Obedience is a triumph. It deserves an enduring spot on the reading lists of senior military leaders and on the syllabi of professional military education institutions around the world."

A Gaping Hole in U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
By Robert A. Manning, The Hill: “Barely noticed in the U.S., China and 14 Asian nations have just signed the world’s largest trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), representing 30 percent of the world's economy."

 Israel Defense Forces retaliate after discovering explosive devices near border 
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck Iranian and Syrian targets in Syria early Wednesday morning in response to explosive devices discovered a day earlier on the Israel-Syria border. IDF warplanes attacked military targets belonging to the Iranian Quds Force and Syrian army, according to a statement by the IDF. The attack damaged warehouses, command posts and military complexes and batteries of surface-to-air missiles. The attack was in response to the placement of explosive charges placed next to the border fence between Syrian and Israeli territory. The IDF said the charges were placed by a Syrian squad acting under Iran's instructions. Israel's envoy to the United Nations Gilad Erdan submitted on Tuesday a complaint to the UN Security Council demanding that it take immediate action against Hezbollah's military buildup and continued activity in southern Lebanon.
Read More  
jpost.com

Turkish-backed Arab militias are becoming a frequent presence in Armenia, Libya, and Syria. National leaders are learning that relying on Turkish-backed forces comes with serious political and diplomatic costs, notes Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. Too often, states and diplomats dismiss Turkish presence as a military problem; they should not. Any government that accepts Turkey’s proxy forces on their territory should automatically lose diplomatic support, be slapped with sanctions, and even be subject to a future state sponsor of terror designation. Continue here.

Why Defense Firms Need to Get Systematic About M&A — Big and Small
By Eric Chewning & Frank Coleman III, Defense News: “After years of growth, defense budgets will likely flatten (or decline). In such a financial environment, the U.S. Department of Defense will consider trade-offs between funding modernization, sustaining legacy equipment and preserving force structure."

For Want of a Leader:
Lessons on Mission Command From McClellan’s Failures at Antietam
By Ronald Roberts, Modern War Institute: “. . .  the reality of what transpired at Antietam would have long-lasting effects on the course of the Civil War and holds lessons on the consequences of failing to implement the tenets of Mission Command on the battlefield."

China’s DF-21D and DF-26B ASBMs: Is the U.S. Military Ready?
By Andrew Erickson, 1945: “. . . the following wording in DoD’s 2020 China report leapt out at me: “The PLA has fielded approximately 200 IRBM launchers and more than 200 missiles.”

How China Outsmarted the Trump Administration // Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic: While the U.S. is distracted, China is rewriting the rules of the global order.
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Keep an Eye on Taiwan // Michael Schuman, The Atlantic: The battle over the island may be a Cold War relic, but it will shape the future.

INDIA:
India Scraps Investment Rule for Foreign Weapons Suppliers
By Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Bloomberg: “India scrapped a rule that forced foreign suppliers of weapons, aircraft or military hardware to invest in the South Asian nation, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks to accelerate defense purchases and reduce red tape.”
CHINA:
003 and More: An Update on China’s Aircraft Carriers
By Rick Joe, The Diplomat: “As another year passes, additional developments in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) carrier program continue to be sighted and confirmed, in spite of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

What if Middle Eastern States Worked Together?
By Gary Schmitt, RealClearDefense: “A future with multiple states in the Middle East pointing nukes at one another seems more likely than ever before, but the Israel-UAE deal illuminates a solution.” ​

Report: Russia's Military Strength Highest Since Soviet Days
That's according to a new International Institute for Strategic Studies report. "Russia's nuclear weaponry and the Russian Aerospace Forces have ...  benefited most from a near-decade long increase in investment," the report states.

Erdogan's Plan to Take Over the Palestinian Authority  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

U.S., ASIA:
The End of U.S. Primacy in Asia
By Adam Mattison, USNI Blog: “As the Navy continues its push toward a 355-ship fleet, the perennial issue of manning that fleet is more important now than at any point since the end of the Cold War."
SOUTH CAUCUSUS:
The Key to Armenia's Tank Losses: The Sensors
By Jack Watling, RUSI: “Despite the heavy Armenian armoured losses, the key lessons from the videos Azerbaijan has published online are not about armour. Rather, they reflect how the density of sensors on the modern battlefield is changing the balance in combined arms warfare."

As the House and Senate prepare to conference on the fiscal 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, the conservative Heritage Foundation has put together more than 30 recommendations for lawakers, including:

• Cancel the Boeing F-15EX fighter program and instead buy more Lockheed Martin-made F-35 Joint Strike Fighters (read Heritage’s argument, here).
• “Support additional ship purchases to ensure meeting the 2034 target of a 355-ship Navy.” 
• Don’t ban nuclear testing.
• Support the Indo-Pacific Deterrence Initiative, “Maintain the prohibition on withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula; Demonstrate support for Taiwan; Block funding for the removal of U.S. troops from Europe; Keep up the pressure through sanctions.