​Assessing military cyber maturity: Strategy, institutions, and capability
Jason Blessing | International Institute for Strategic Studies
This paper offers insights into how the governance and organizational factors of domestic politics facilitate or inhibit the dissemination of cyber concepts and capabilities throughout military forces beyond the main signals or cyber-intelligence agency.

It’s time for Pentagon to prioritize near-term acquisition fixes over systemic change
Former Pentagon official Jeff Bialos says with less than three years for an undersecretary of acquisition and sustainment to do their job, they need to focus on triage efforts.

The decline in defense purchasing power and the transformation of the Pentagon into a social program
William C. Greenwalt | AEIdeas
The vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. John Hyten, recently outlined a condition that is now too big to ignore: Defense purchasing power is so anemic that the Pentagon struggles to get any increase in defense capability for all the taxpayer money spent. Even worse, capability has been eroded to the point that our adversaries are now at parity with the US — and the situation is not getting any better, points out William Greenwalt. We will need radical regulatory relief and management reforms to dig ourselves out of this hole. Read More >>

Huawei’s decline shows why China will struggle to dominate
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
Two years ago, Chinese telecom giant Huawei was set to control global 5G, symbolizing Beijing's rise to technological primary. But now its goal is survival, notes Hal Brands. Huawei’s decline shows how China is often its own worst enemy, as its global assertiveness makes its rivals multiply. It represents bipartisan effectiveness, and it shows that the US has the tools, and can assemble the strategy, to win a high-tech rivalry with China — provided Washington can avoid losing crucial near-term battles first. Read More >>

Evergrande and more important things
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
While some claim that the Evergrande debacle is another “Lehman moment,” they misunderstand a crucial distinction: The Chinese financial system is largely not commercial; it’s largely a government arm, points out Derek Scissors. The true risk, however, is that Beijing's interference in finance is increasing, as seen by the New Bank of International Settlements, which shows that China’s large credit share of gross domestic product (GDP) is falling in the first quarter. While that’s partly due to artificially fast GDP out of the pandemic, Beijing is also limiting lending and direct government borrowing this year. If sustained, this would be far more important than Evergrande. Read More >

Stronger Deterrence Will Avoid War Over Taiwan
By Peter Jennings, The Strategist (ASPI): "The Taiwanese assess perhaps a three-year time frame before an attack, while U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Honolulu considers a military assault in six years to be possible."

t’s a mistake to think some jihadis are only focused on the ‘local’
Emily Estelle | The Hill
There is a false assumption behind the Joe Biden administration's decision to abandon counterterrorism: Jihadist groups with local ambitions do not have international goals. Relying on this false assumption blinds us to the growing threat in Afghanistan and the danger of other "Islamic emirates" proliferating worldwide, explains Emily Estelle. The rapid growth of African Salafi-jihadi groups is one of the most alarming trends of the past decade. Accommodating these groups will not stop them from attacking us. The only long-term solution is to uproot and discredit them. Read More >>

Senate Commission to Fix Defense Budgeting Is Right on the Mark by John Whitley and Gregory Pejic

Continuing Resolutions Could Extend Well into 2022
By Jon Harper, National Defense Magazine: “We’re in the final days of September, and once again the federal government Is set to start a new fiscal year under a continuing resolution — or a government shutdown — because Congress failed to pass a full-year appropriations bill by Oct. 1. However, this time around, the CRs may last much longer than usual."
​
U.S. Military Eyes Prototype Mobile Nuclear Reactor in Idaho
By Keith Ridler, AP: “The lab is considered the nation’s leading nuclear research lab, and has multiple facilities to aid in building and testing the microreactor.”

Uncovering the French Origins of COIN
By M.L. deRaismes Combes, Classics of Strategy and Diplomacy: ". . . counterinsurgency as a discrete military (and political) practice dates even further back—to the nineteenth century and to the height of European imperialism. "

Four Steps to a Successful Quad Leaders’ Summit
By Hayley Channer, The Strategist (ASPI): "Due to the timing, more links are being drawn between AUKUS and the Quad than may have occurred had the two events been further apart. With AUKUS still very fresh, Japan and India will expect additional detail about the deal and reassurance from Australia and the U.S."

The U.S. Should Strengthen Its Relationship With India
to Keep China and the Taliban in Check
By Mark Green, RealClearDefense: “By helping India upgrade its defense systems, the United States can empower India to defend itself, as well as provide security in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific region. This is all the more important since the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban."

Understanding China’s Military Spending
By Richard A. Bitzinger & James Char, The National Interest: “Where China’s military build-up is concerned, adding some context to make up for the lack of transparency in its annual budget provides us with a better—albeit still limited—appreciation of the People’s Liberation Army budgetary allocations."

Curing the Administrative State
by robert r. gasaway
Our administrative state's ills cannot be treated with homespun remedies.
READ MORE ›

A US defense budget that makes China smile
Mackenzie Eaglen | 19fortyfive.com
A larger workforce of Department of Defense civilians is no substitute for service members.
Full Story

The Biden defense budget: The good, the bad, and the ugly
​Elaine McCusker
RealClearDefense

To Biden Administration: Record of Iran's Top "Moderate" Mullah
by Majid Rafizadeh

The Navy must choose between developing a next-generation fighter, a destroyer, or a submarine, acting Secretary Thomas Harker said in a June 4 memo posted by USNI News this week. "The Navy cannot afford to simultaneously develop the next generation of air, surface, and subsurface platforms and must prioritize these programs, balancing the cost of developing next-generation capabilities against maintaining current capabilities," the memo states.

The Air Force said GE can 3D print

It's the Government Accountability Office's annual assessment of the Pentagon's major weapon programs. ​

​FLAVIO FELICE
Debt and Democracy
Madison and Jefferson can still offer us sage counsel for our heavily indebted times.

The Broken Road to Military Professionalism
by j. furman daniel iii
Wooster’s book is an examination of the fundamental debates regarding the role of the military in American society.
READ MORE ›

Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Way Forward
In a new policy briefing book, entitled The Biden Administration and the Middle East: Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Way Forward, MEI scholars tackle a large number of country-specific and region-wide issue areas, laying out both the abiding U.S. interests and specific recommendations for Biden administration policies that can further U.S. interests amid a region in turmoil.
Read Briefing Book

Winter 2020/2021 Issue

After last year’s crisis, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia pursue a reset
Read article

China and Military Power through Artificial Intelligence  by Peter Schweizer

Competing in time: How the Department of Defense is losing the innovation race to China
Despite reforms, the Pentagon and Congress have failed to break out of a Cold War, central-planning model that has stifled innovation, writes William Greenwalt. A radical overhaul of the entire defense management system is now required. Time is of the essence.
READ MORE

question the stealth fighter's role. "What does the F-35 give us? Is there a way to cut our losses? Is there a way to not keep spending so much money for such a low capability, because the sustainment costs are brutal," Smith said at a Brookings Institution event on Friday.

The F-35 is the largest, most expensive Pentagon program —ever— so it certainly has a target on its back now that Democrats control Congress and there is a Dem in the White House and are expected to cut defense spending in the coming years. But that's no easy feat since F-35 parts are made in 45 U.S. states and a number of foreign partners, which will certainly weigh in on the minds of lawmakers. Nine countries are already flying the plane too.

Small Number of States Dominate Defense Spending
By Jon Harper, National Defense Magazine: "A huge portion of U.S. defense spending is going to contractors and military personnel based in just a handful of states, according to data recently released by the Pentagon."

The Military Balance 2021, on our website.

Global defence-spending on the up, despite economic crunch
Notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent 3.5% contraction in global economic output in 2020, global defence-spending was resilient with real growth matching the higher rate achieved in 2019. However, even with a potential uplift in European spending, this increase could slow in 2021 as the defence budget of the United States flattens and growth in Asia-Pacific slows. Read Fenella McGerty's analysis in full. 

Editor's Introduction.

US Intelligence and the Dilemma of Iran
By Erfan Fard, February 26, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The rogue regime in Tehran is the primary source of turmoil and instability in the Middle East. The regime thirsts for ever more dominance across the region and beyond and employs a terrorist network to achieve that goal, even as it continues to move aggressively in its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The threat of Iran, combined with the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Syria, has prompted the creation of an anti-Iran coalition. It is now up to the Biden administration, which has no desire to become involved in a military conflict with Iran, to determine the best course of action in dealing with a regime that persistently challenges all accepted norms of behavior.
Continue to full article ->

Navigating the Shoals of Renewed American Naval Power: Imperatives for the Next Secretary of the Navy by Bryan Durkee and Chris Bassler

 Janet Yellen and the return of the bond vigilantes
Desmond Lachman | The National Interest 
 
Today's global credit and asset bubble is premised on the assumption that US interest rates will remain at low levels indefinitely. This could change quickly if inflation fears due to the president's expansive stimulus package push rates up. The market for US government bonds could be an early signal of trouble ahead. 

 Biden must not repeat Trump’s trade policy mistakes
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
 
President Joe Biden has inherited a US and global economy in much worse shape than did President Donald Trump. As such, Biden cannot afford to repeat the same trade policy mistakes that the Trump administration made if he wishes to arrest the worldwide drift to protectionist policies that threaten US and global prosperity.

How To Overcome Weaknesses in the Western Way of Sea War
By James Holmes, 1945: “The question put to me for today is: what are some aspects of the Western way of maritime war that opponents can exploit?" 

America’s Approach Towards Iran
By Ehud Eilam, Wavell Room: "What should President Biden’s strategy towards Iran look like?  It is a crucial matter which might bring a nuclear arms race to the Middle East and maybe even a nuclear war.  Israel and Arab states are also very concerned about Iran and about its regional ambitions and long-range missile project.  All of that has to be addressed by negotiation while retaining a military option should the talks reach a dead end."

Global Defence-Spending on the Up, Despite Economic Crunch
By Fenella McGerty, IISS: “Notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent 3.5% contraction in global economic output in 2020, global defence-spending was resilient with real growth matching the higher rate achieved in 2019. However, even with a potential uplift in European spending, this increase could slow in 2021 as the defence budget of the United States flattens and growth in Asia-Pacific slows."

Competing in time: Ensuring capability advantage and mission success through adaptable resource allocation
William C. Greenwalt and Dan Patt | Hudson Institute
The keystone of the Department of Defense’s (DOD) institutional architecture is not acquisition, but rather the budgeting process. Congress and the DOD need to cooperate to overhaul the resource-allocation process to allow the United States to compete with other nations such as China.  Full Story   

What are China’s leaders saying about the South China Sea?
Oriana Skylar Mastro | The Lowy Institute

Who’s Who in Defense: Kathleen Hicks, Deputy Secretary Of Defense
Part of a special Breaking Defense reference series profiling key defense decision-makers in the new administration and Congress.

Turkish Reforms: From Imperial Repression to Thuggish State  by Burak Bekdil  

Iran's Role in Yemen: US, EU Go Wobbly  by Majid Rafizadeh

Explosions over Riyadh as CENTCOM commander visits region
 No group has yet claimed credit for the blasts, which came three days after the Saudi military said it shot down an enemy projectile over Riyadh.

Present at the Drone War’s Creation
By Benjamin Runkle, RealClearDefense: “. . . despite the current vogue for railing against the bureaucratic "Deep State," Never Mind shows how much of the implementation of grand strategy and policy relies on nameless, faceless patriots for success." ​

Restoring Thucydides
By William D. Burghart, Strategy Bridge: “. . . Thucydides’ text is not a machine into which modern problems can be plugged in and answers calculated.” 

Theseus, Daedalus and Icarus
By Roger Ranger, Wavell Room: “The potential non-kinetic military effects of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the battlefield."

Turning the JLTV Into a Science Fair Dangerous for Warfighters
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “There’s a longstanding ritual among defense contractors and pundits when a new president takes office. They try to convince the incoming administration that their priorities are a good match for its agenda.” ​

Declassification of Secret Document Reveals U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific
By Rory Medcalf, The Strategist (ASPI): “The U.S. government has just declassified one of its most sensitive national security documents—its 2018 strategic framework for the Indo-Pacific, which was formally classified SECRET and not for release to foreign nationals.” ​

Army Revamps Acquisition Strategy for Bradley Replacement
By Stew Magnuson, National Defense Magazine: “The Army has come up with a new acquisition strategy in its decades-long effort to replace the Bradley Fighting Vehicle.”
Marines, Navy Moving Quickly on Light Amphib, Anti-Ship Missiles
By Megan Eckstein, USNI News: “The Navy and Marine Corps are quickly seeking new ideas that allow Marines to support the Navy in sea control and other maritime missions, including the rapid acquisition of a light amphibious ship and a movement toward using Marine weapons while at sea.”
U.S. Navy’s Plan To Stop Its String of Shipbuilding Failures
By David Larter, Defense News: “The U.S. Navy’s top officer has laid down the gauntlet: The service must deliver two new classes of surface ships on time.

The Death of Critical Thinking in the Military? Here’s How to Fix It.
By Steve Ferenzi, RealClearDefense: “Traditional American military culture diametrically opposes divergent thought.” ​

Restart, Reset or Renew? The Strategy against Iranian Nuclear Ambition  by Peter Schweizer 

America’s Military Needs an Innovation Overhaul
By David McCormick & James Cunningham, Fast Company: “If confirmed as Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin would inherit a Pentagon that has lost its technological edge. But it isn’t too late to fight back, two national security experts write.” ​

AI In The Grey Zone: Afghan Lessons For Great Power Conflict
Artificial intelligence developed to hunt terrorists can help track Russian and Chinese targets as well – especially amidst murky, chaotic conflicts in the “grey zone” between peace and open war.

Moving Beyond A2/AD
By Chris Dougherty, Center for a New American Security: “For at least a decade, A2/AD has helped focus the Department of Defense (DoD) on critical Chinese and Russian threats to U.S. military operations in East Asia and eastern Europe. Today, however, it has outlived its usefulness as a diagnosis of Chinese and Russian approaches to warfare and as a framework for guiding subsequent operational and force-planning decisions based on the challenges they pose.” ​

Last week, the US Congress passed a bipartisan $741 billion defense bill, known as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Both chambers passed the NDAA with a veto-proof majority after President Donald Trump threatened to veto the legislation. The 2021 NDAA allocates $2.2 billion to create the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a program aimed to bolster US capabilities and alliances in the Asian-Pacific region. The NDAA will also fund additional attack submarines to counter Chinese maritime forces and will finance a new director of cybersecurity position intended to make the Pentagon less dependent on Chinese technology. In speaking of the NDAA’s 43 Asia-related provisions, AEI’s Zack Cooper notes, “The 2021 NDAA contains dozens of provisions on Asia and China, including the most important piece of legislation on Asia in years: the Pacific Deterrence Initiative. But what is yet to be seen is whether the US will shift defense resources accordingly. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative’s $2.2 billion in funding is a relatively small shift within the larger defense budget and has not yet been appropriated. To keep pace with China's military modernization, the United States will need to make more fundamental changes, and do so quickly." What other changes does the US need to make to handle China's challenge? What challenges will a new director of cybersecurity face as they try to cooperate with US tech companies? ​

​US-China rivalry is turning toward Central Asia, Africa, and Central America. China’s ambitions in developing countries require a concerted response, points out Hal Brands in a Bloomberg op-ed. Enhanced US coordination with Japan, Australia, and the EU would allow leading democracies to deploy their combined resources to strengthen third world growth. The geography of great-power competition is shifting, and succeeding in the developing world will require more than good luck. Learn more here.

Four New Weapons That Will Define the Biden Defense Posture
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “Predicting the defense priorities of a new administration, especially one that hasn’t yet taken office, is a risky business. Although Joe Biden has a long and fairly consistent track record on national security, the fallout from a global pandemic and disrupted economy may drive changes in military plans that few observers are expecting."

The power of combatant commanders continues to grow as the demand for forces exceeds supply. Demand signals from combatant commanders must be reconciled with the challenges facing each military branch under flat or declining budgets, argues Mackenzie Eaglen in a War on the Rocks op-ed. Fortunately, reform is possible. Determining proper levels of support for combatant commanders and convincing Congress of these decisions is a tall order. The Pentagon can improve these conversations by ensuring that lawmakers are adequately informed. Read more here.

The postelection shake-up at the Pentagon has raised alarms in the national security world. In an Atlantic article, Kori Schake theorizes what the administration is doing. The president is either organizing security forces to keep himself in power, planning a preemptive military strike on Iran, or placing factotums who will have authority over documents possibly linking him to Russia’s 2016 election interference, or the president has vengeful intentions. A responsible president would underscore the strength of US defense agencies during the presidential transition. But that’s not the commander in chief we have. Continue here.

There are three important things to consider before a new Congress makes any hasty decisions about national security. In a RealClearDefense op-ed, Elaine McCusker explains that Congress must examine federal spending, consider actual defense costs when examining discretionary spending, and pursue opportunities to capture lost buying power. Inclusive federal spending options that incrementally realign resources from the Department of Defense to those who hold the mission, along with aggressive and creative entitlement reform, would inform and improve choices available to elected officials. Learn more here.

In gray-zone conflicts, police don’t have the skills to bring peace, and full-scale military interventions can escalate. A force that can bring stability is needed. Gendarmerie forces, with their unique blend of policing and military expertise, may be a perfect answer to the troubles facing countries, argues Elisabeth Braw in a Foreign Policy op-ed. While not many other countries want to launch a gendarmerie, all would benefit from mastering the gendarmes’ core skill of keeping order in the gray zone, both at home and in international hot spots. Read here.

Air Force Chief's Surprising Top Modernization Priorities
By Valerie Insinna, Defense News: “The U.S. Air Force is spending tens of billions of dollars every year to buy new aircraft, including F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, KC-46 tankers, the T-7A trainer jet and more. But none of those platforms makes the list of Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown’s top three modernization priorities."

US Urgently Needs to Challenge China's Chokehold on Rare Earth Materials
by Lawrence A. Franklin  

Russian Strategic and Hypersonic Naval Nuclear Weapons
By Mark B. Schneider, RealClearDefense: “ Russia sets its highest value on its strategic nuclear forces.” ​

Manning Still Matters: A Fleet Perspective
By Paul Kingsbury, USNI Blog: “It has now been three years since the Comprehensive Review of Surface Force Incidents was conducted to find root causes underlying ship mishaps in the Western Pacific."

The Shield of the Indo-Pacific
By William J. Bowers & Thomas D. Wood, Proceedings: “Investment in Indo-Pacific installations is a strategic imperative."

Teaching Technology, Innovation, and Modern War at Stanford, Part 6:
Cyber and Space
By Steve Blank, Modern War Institute: “The way we are going about creating safety and security online in cybersecurity and defending against cybercrime isn’t quite rational.” ​

On Obedience:
Contrasting Philosophies for the Military, Citizenry, and Community
By Jim Golby, Strategy Bridge: "On Obedience is a triumph. It deserves an enduring spot on the reading lists of senior military leaders and on the syllabi of professional military education institutions around the world."

A Gaping Hole in U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
By Robert A. Manning, The Hill: “Barely noticed in the U.S., China and 14 Asian nations have just signed the world’s largest trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), representing 30 percent of the world's economy."

 Israel Defense Forces retaliate after discovering explosive devices near border 
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck Iranian and Syrian targets in Syria early Wednesday morning in response to explosive devices discovered a day earlier on the Israel-Syria border. IDF warplanes attacked military targets belonging to the Iranian Quds Force and Syrian army, according to a statement by the IDF. The attack damaged warehouses, command posts and military complexes and batteries of surface-to-air missiles. The attack was in response to the placement of explosive charges placed next to the border fence between Syrian and Israeli territory. The IDF said the charges were placed by a Syrian squad acting under Iran's instructions. Israel's envoy to the United Nations Gilad Erdan submitted on Tuesday a complaint to the UN Security Council demanding that it take immediate action against Hezbollah's military buildup and continued activity in southern Lebanon.
Read More  
jpost.com

Turkish-backed Arab militias are becoming a frequent presence in Armenia, Libya, and Syria. National leaders are learning that relying on Turkish-backed forces comes with serious political and diplomatic costs, notes Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. Too often, states and diplomats dismiss Turkish presence as a military problem; they should not. Any government that accepts Turkey’s proxy forces on their territory should automatically lose diplomatic support, be slapped with sanctions, and even be subject to a future state sponsor of terror designation. Continue here.

Why Defense Firms Need to Get Systematic About M&A — Big and Small
By Eric Chewning & Frank Coleman III, Defense News: “After years of growth, defense budgets will likely flatten (or decline). In such a financial environment, the U.S. Department of Defense will consider trade-offs between funding modernization, sustaining legacy equipment and preserving force structure."

For Want of a Leader:
Lessons on Mission Command From McClellan’s Failures at Antietam
By Ronald Roberts, Modern War Institute: “. . .  the reality of what transpired at Antietam would have long-lasting effects on the course of the Civil War and holds lessons on the consequences of failing to implement the tenets of Mission Command on the battlefield."

China’s DF-21D and DF-26B ASBMs: Is the U.S. Military Ready?
By Andrew Erickson, 1945: “. . . the following wording in DoD’s 2020 China report leapt out at me: “The PLA has fielded approximately 200 IRBM launchers and more than 200 missiles.”

How China Outsmarted the Trump Administration // Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic: While the U.S. is distracted, China is rewriting the rules of the global order.
​
Keep an Eye on Taiwan // Michael Schuman, The Atlantic: The battle over the island may be a Cold War relic, but it will shape the future.

INDIA:
India Scraps Investment Rule for Foreign Weapons Suppliers
By Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Bloomberg: “India scrapped a rule that forced foreign suppliers of weapons, aircraft or military hardware to invest in the South Asian nation, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks to accelerate defense purchases and reduce red tape.”
CHINA:
003 and More: An Update on China’s Aircraft Carriers
By Rick Joe, The Diplomat: “As another year passes, additional developments in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) carrier program continue to be sighted and confirmed, in spite of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

What if Middle Eastern States Worked Together?
By Gary Schmitt, RealClearDefense: “A future with multiple states in the Middle East pointing nukes at one another seems more likely than ever before, but the Israel-UAE deal illuminates a solution.” ​

Report: Russia's Military Strength Highest Since Soviet Days
That's according to a new International Institute for Strategic Studies report. "Russia's nuclear weaponry and the Russian Aerospace Forces have ...  benefited most from a near-decade long increase in investment," the report states.

Erdogan's Plan to Take Over the Palestinian Authority  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

U.S., ASIA:
The End of U.S. Primacy in Asia
By Adam Mattison, USNI Blog: “As the Navy continues its push toward a 355-ship fleet, the perennial issue of manning that fleet is more important now than at any point since the end of the Cold War."
SOUTH CAUCUSUS:
The Key to Armenia's Tank Losses: The Sensors
By Jack Watling, RUSI: “Despite the heavy Armenian armoured losses, the key lessons from the videos Azerbaijan has published online are not about armour. Rather, they reflect how the density of sensors on the modern battlefield is changing the balance in combined arms warfare."

As the House and Senate prepare to conference on the fiscal 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, the conservative Heritage Foundation has put together more than 30 recommendations for lawakers, including:

• Cancel the Boeing F-15EX fighter program and instead buy more Lockheed Martin-made F-35 Joint Strike Fighters (read Heritage’s argument, here).
• “Support additional ship purchases to ensure meeting the 2034 target of a 355-ship Navy.” 
• Don’t ban nuclear testing.
• Support the Indo-Pacific Deterrence Initiative, “Maintain the prohibition on withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula; Demonstrate support for Taiwan; Block funding for the removal of U.S. troops from Europe; Keep up the pressure through sanctions.

China’s defence-industry rankings: down but by no means out
In a new audit of global defence companies, Chinese state-owned enterprises seem to have slumped in the rankings. Despite appearances, we shouldn’t underestimate the strength of the Chinese defence technological and industrial base, argues Meia Nouwens. ​

BREAKING DEFENSE

Failure to Resolve the GERD Issue Portends a Global Crisis and Mass Migration

Pakistan a ‘safe haven’ for ‘terror groups’: U.S. State Department

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-wants-ownership-south-china-sea-heres-why-cant-happen-165070

Libya score-settling moves closer to Turkey’s borders
Turkey’s intervention in the Libyan war is driving its adversaries to retaliate beyond Libya in conflict zones along Turkey’s own borders.  Read More  

Turkey’s lira slides as Central Bank raises inflation forecast
Despite state bank efforts to bolster Turkey’s currency, the lira fell to its lowest point since May against the dollar this week, prompting fears of a renewed currency crisis.  Read More  

Israel facing tensions on northern, southern borders
 The IDF is now worried not only about escalating tensions on the Syrian and Lebanese borders but also about growing tensions along the border with the Gaza Strip.

​It’s time for a third special operations revolution  David Maxwell | Senior Fellow
​United Arab Emirates: UAE Urges Turkey to Stay Out of Arab Affairs.  An Emirati official on Saturday urged Turkey to stop interfering in Arab affairs after Turkey condemned “malicious” actions by the United Arab Emirates in Libya.  Anwar Gargash, Emirati minister of state for foreign affairs, said that Turkey should not behave like “the Sublime Porte and use the language of colonialism,” which refers to the Ottoman Empire which used to rule the Arab world.  In Libya, Turkey supports the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord, while the United Arab Emirates supports Khalifa Haftar with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Russia.  Dunya News Reuters

United Arab Emirates: UAE Starts Nuclear Power Plant.  The United Arab Emirates has started its first nuclear reactor at the Barakah plant, which is operated by the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation and Korea Electric Power Corporation.  Experts have raised concerns about environmental consequences as well as the potential for a regional nuclear arms race.  The United Arab Emirates is the first Arab country to open a nuclear power plant, but stated that it will only be used for energy purposes.  Israel and Iran are the other regional powers with nuclear capabilities.  Al Jazeera The New York Times  ​

This shaped the selection of the past two Chiefs of Naval Operations, including Adm. Michael Gilday, who was just a three-star when he was picked for the Navy's top job a year ago. In an hour-long interview, the CNO told Ignatius that he believes his service's problems stem from a decline in professional competency and a rise in character lapses. "Gilday says he wants to reboot the Navy's core culture, which begins with proficiency at sea. The Navy's operations tempo has been so stretched over the past two decades that officers and sailors don't have time to learn good seamanship and navigation. The sea is unforgiving; it magnifies the smallest mistakes. And sadly, in this stressed fleet, too many have cut ethical corners." Read on, here.

How Can We Know if Professional Military Education Works? by Megan J. Hennessey

Libya’s Hifter warns Erdogan: Stay out of Libya or you face our bullets 
Eastern Libya’s military strongman Khalifa Hifter warned Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday to stay out of Libya, saying that Turkish forces will be met “with bullets.” The threat comes as Turkey and Hifter’s main rival, the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli, are pressing a counteroffensive to repel the eastern general’s forces from the key coastal city of Sirte, gateway to much of Libya’s coveted oil reserves. Turkey has deployed thousands of rebels from Syria to fight alongside forces loyal to the GNA. Apparently in response, Russia has introduced fighter aircraft into the conflict in recent months. Meanwhile, Egypt has threatened to militarily intervene on Hifter’s side if the GNA should advance on Sirte and al-Jufra. Along with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia also back Hifter. On Sunday, a spokesman for the GNA said Russian-made cargo planes carried new military shipments to Hifter’s forces in Sirte and al-Jufra.   Read More    arabnews.com

US: China’s relations with Iran will ‘destabilize’ Middle East 
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday that China’s proposed economic and security partnership with Iran would destabilize the Middle East and put Washington’s close partners in the region, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, at risk. “China’s entry into Iran will destabilize the Middle East,” Pompeo said on Fox News on Sunday morning, in apparent reference to a proposed deal obtained by The New York Times last month. “It’ll put Israel at risk. It’ll put the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates at risk as well,” Pompeo said Sunday. The Trump administration has sought to strangle Iran’s supply of cash and its ability to produce and export weapons systems, particularly ballistic missiles, since Washington withdrew from the 2015 international nuclear agreement with Tehran. How serious Beijing’s draft agreement with Tehran really is remains tobe seen, but the proposal would significantly expand China’s involvement in Iran’s telecommunications, banking and transportation infrastructure.
 Read More  
state.gov

Michael Oakeshott’s Dialogic Imagination
by Emina Melonic
Without taking into consideration a metaphysical make-up of human beings and the world that surrounds them, comprehending political life will be difficult, Read More »

Havel and the Ideological Temptation

ICYMI: China Has Squandered Its First Great Opportunity
By Richard Fontaine
​The world has experienced a six-month geopolitical vacuum, and China has filled it poorly.

It’s time for a US Navy port call in Somaliland
 Michael Rubin | RealClearDefense
 It is rare that a simple action could win a policy trifecta, but sending a destroyer or cruiser to the port of Berbera could achieve just that

Israel Versus Anyone: A Military Net Assessment of the Middle East
By Kenneth S. Brower, August 2, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: This shows that, as compared to Israeli military capability, neither the US nor Russia can project meaningful conventional military power into the Middle East unless they are provided with both many months to mobilize and a lack of opposition during the long process of deployment. This conclusion implies that any US-proposed mutual defense treaty offered to Israel would be militarily meaningless. Moreover, the study shows that, over the long term, any such treaty would actually result in significantly diminished Israeli national security.
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Can Hezbollah and Israel Avoid War? by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
July 30, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61345/hezbollah-complicated-strategic-calculus

AFRICOM ordered to plan move out of Germany, latest pullout from key European ally
(Military Times) U.S. Africa Command has been ordered to make plans to move out of its headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany, its commander announced in an early morning media release.

US Strategic Command now analyzes daily deterrence risks for all combatant commands
(Defense News) In the last six months, U.S. Strategic Command has begun performing daily analysis on the state of nuclear deterrence in each of the regional combatant commands, STRATCOM commander Adm. Charles Richard said Thursday.

Army examining basing options for new weapons in Indo-Pacific
(National Defense) The Army continues to analyze options for basing new long-range precision weapons in the Indo-Pacific region, to be used by one of its new multi-domain task forces, the service's top officer said July 31.

China’s J-20 carrier-based jet fighter influenced by US – not Soviet – thinking, designer says
(South China Morning Post) As tensions between Beijing and Washington continue to rise, China’s military aircraft designers are racing to develop a next-generation fighter jet for use on the nation’s aircraft carriers capable of competing with their American rivals.

Time for Turkey to call in the International Monetary Fund
Desmond Lachman | The Hill 
 
Despite macroeconomic mismanagement and the embrace of highly unorthodox economic ideas, Turkey has skirted crisis for some time. However, since the onset of COVID-19, the tide has suddenly turned. It may be time for Turkey to call in the International Monetary Fund. 

What the F-35 of the Future Will Look Like
By Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics: “The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is scheduled to receive a long list of upgrades that will ideally keep it the dominant multi-role fighter for years to come.”
Project Blackjack: DARPA’s Leo Satellites Take Off
By Harry Lye, Air Force-Technology: “DARPA is working with Lockheed Martin on the first stage of satellite integration for project blackjack, a military low earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation. Harry Lye finds out more from the programme leaders.”

U.S., RUSSIA:
Trump Nominee to Russia: Abandon ‘Flying Chernobyl’ Nuclear Missile
From The Moscow Times: “U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for a top arms control post in the State Department has said Russia should stop developing what he believes is a dangerous nuclear-powered cruise missile.”
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U.S., INDIA:
U.S. and India are Deepening Military Ties - China is Watching
By Jane Doe, The Diplomat: “The U.S. military’s top officer in the Pacific urged Indian officials Wednesday to pursue even closer military ties with the United States.”

Sub Hunters Continue to Prove Their Worth
By Charles Walker, RealClearDefense: “Submarines are an important weapon in any countries arsenal. The threat of an attack by a submarine is a concern to the operators of all merchant and naval vessels.” ​

IRAQ:
Iraq Moves Towards S-400 Acquisition
By Charles Forrester, Jane's: "Iraq has become the latest country to consider acquiring the Russian-made S-400 Triumf (NATO reporting name SA-21 'Growler'), the Iraqi press reported on 18 April."
RUSSIA:
Russia Abandons Nuclear Destroyer, Supersized Frigate Programs
By Joseph Trevithick, The WarZone: “Russia's Severnoye Design Bureau has stopped development entirely of its Project 23560 destroyers, also known as the Lider class, and the Project 22350M frigate, an expanded derivative of the Project 22350 Admiral Gorshkovclass. The company has said these ships are among its most promising future offerings and the halting of the two programs has raised questions about its long-term financial stability."

Chinese Soldiers Seen Testing New QBZ-191 Assault Rifle
By Peter Suciu, The National Interest: "Last week Chinese state media released footage of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA's) next-generation assault rifle, the QBZ-191. This would replace the QBZ-95-1 bullpup that has been in service since 1997."

The top Marine told reporters Wednesday that current layout and organization of the Corps’ Light Armored Reconnaissance units were better equipped to handle another conflict in the Middle East instead of rising near-peer rivals. – Defense News ​

Patrick M. Cronin and Ryan D. Neuhard write: China is not playing games in the Indo-Pacific. The United States needs to implement a comprehensive competitive strategy that proactively outmaneuvers China’s government and leverages U.S. strengths. Until policymakers do, they may as well spend their time playing laser tag while the rest of us watch the Indo-Pacific gradually slip into China’s control. – The Diplomat ​

Light Armored Reconnaissance Is Outmoded on Future Battlefield
By Shawn Snow, Marine Corps Times: “The top Marine told reporters Wednesday that current layout and organization of the Corps’ Light Armored Reconnaissance units were better equipped to handle another conflict in the Middle East instead of rising near-peer rivals."
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Indo-Pacom Chief’s Bold $20 Billion Plan
By Paul McLeary, Breaking Defense: “The bold new Pacific plan "is designed to persuade potential adversaries that any preemptive military action will be extremely costly and likely fail," ADM Philip Davidson writes."

Nuclear power’s ray of hope: hydrogen-boron fusionIn 1933 the physicists Ernest Rutherford and Mark Oliphant reported on experiments in which they bombarded a thin film of the boron compound borax by a beam of protons and registered the emission of high-energy alpha particles. This confirmed the earlier evidence of Cockcroft and Walton, that nuclear reactions were taking place between protons and boron nuclei, resulting in the transmutation of chemical elements. Read More

The Navy has taken several cracks over the years at trying to define a new future aircraft carrier, one that might be less expensive or less vulnerable. But each time, the Navy has moved forward with the nuclear-powered supercarrier concept, in part because it provides an unmatched sortie-generation capability, and in part, because it’s built by a workforce that would be tough or impossible to reconstitute if the Navy ever stopped supporting it. – USNI News ​