CHINA, RARE EARTH METALS & THE F35

Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Way Forward
In a new policy briefing book, entitled The Biden Administration and the Middle East: Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Way Forward, MEI scholars tackle a large number of country-specific and region-wide issue areas, laying out both the abiding U.S. interests and specific recommendations for Biden administration policies that can further U.S. interests amid a region in turmoil.
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Winter 2020/2021 Issue

After last year’s crisis, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia pursue a reset
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China and Military Power through Artificial Intelligence  by Peter Schweizer

Competing in time: How the Department of Defense is losing the innovation race to China
Despite reforms, the Pentagon and Congress have failed to break out of a Cold War, central-planning model that has stifled innovation, writes William Greenwalt. A radical overhaul of the entire defense management system is now required. Time is of the essence.
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question the stealth fighter's role. "What does the F-35 give us? Is there a way to cut our losses? Is there a way to not keep spending so much money for such a low capability, because the sustainment costs are brutal," Smith said at a Brookings Institution event on Friday.

The F-35 is the largest, most expensive Pentagon program —ever— so it certainly has a target on its back now that Democrats control Congress and there is a Dem in the White House and are expected to cut defense spending in the coming years. But that's no easy feat since F-35 parts are made in 45 U.S. states and a number of foreign partners, which will certainly weigh in on the minds of lawmakers. Nine countries are already flying the plane too.

Small Number of States Dominate Defense Spending
By Jon Harper, National Defense Magazine: "A huge portion of U.S. defense spending is going to contractors and military personnel based in just a handful of states, according to data recently released by the Pentagon."

The Military Balance 2021, on our website.

Global defence-spending on the up, despite economic crunch
Notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent 3.5% contraction in global economic output in 2020, global defence-spending was resilient with real growth matching the higher rate achieved in 2019. However, even with a potential uplift in European spending, this increase could slow in 2021 as the defence budget of the United States flattens and growth in Asia-Pacific slows. Read Fenella McGerty's analysis in full. 

Editor's Introduction.

US Intelligence and the Dilemma of Iran
By Erfan Fard, February 26, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The rogue regime in Tehran is the primary source of turmoil and instability in the Middle East. The regime thirsts for ever more dominance across the region and beyond and employs a terrorist network to achieve that goal, even as it continues to move aggressively in its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The threat of Iran, combined with the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Syria, has prompted the creation of an anti-Iran coalition. It is now up to the Biden administration, which has no desire to become involved in a military conflict with Iran, to determine the best course of action in dealing with a regime that persistently challenges all accepted norms of behavior.
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Navigating the Shoals of Renewed American Naval Power: Imperatives for the Next Secretary of the Navy by Bryan Durkee and Chris Bassler

 Janet Yellen and the return of the bond vigilantes
Desmond Lachman | The National Interest 
 
Today's global credit and asset bubble is premised on the assumption that US interest rates will remain at low levels indefinitely. This could change quickly if inflation fears due to the president's expansive stimulus package push rates up. The market for US government bonds could be an early signal of trouble ahead. 

 Biden must not repeat Trump’s trade policy mistakes
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
 
President Joe Biden has inherited a US and global economy in much worse shape than did President Donald Trump. As such, Biden cannot afford to repeat the same trade policy mistakes that the Trump administration made if he wishes to arrest the worldwide drift to protectionist policies that threaten US and global prosperity.

How To Overcome Weaknesses in the Western Way of Sea War
By James Holmes, 1945: “The question put to me for today is: what are some aspects of the Western way of maritime war that opponents can exploit?" 

America’s Approach Towards Iran
By Ehud Eilam, Wavell Room: "What should President Biden’s strategy towards Iran look like?  It is a crucial matter which might bring a nuclear arms race to the Middle East and maybe even a nuclear war.  Israel and Arab states are also very concerned about Iran and about its regional ambitions and long-range missile project.  All of that has to be addressed by negotiation while retaining a military option should the talks reach a dead end."

Global Defence-Spending on the Up, Despite Economic Crunch
By Fenella McGerty, IISS: “Notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent 3.5% contraction in global economic output in 2020, global defence-spending was resilient with real growth matching the higher rate achieved in 2019. However, even with a potential uplift in European spending, this increase could slow in 2021 as the defence budget of the United States flattens and growth in Asia-Pacific slows."

Competing in time: Ensuring capability advantage and mission success through adaptable resource allocation
William C. Greenwalt and Dan Patt | Hudson Institute
The keystone of the Department of Defense’s (DOD) institutional architecture is not acquisition, but rather the budgeting process. Congress and the DOD need to cooperate to overhaul the resource-allocation process to allow the United States to compete with other nations such as China.  Full Story   

What are China’s leaders saying about the South China Sea?
Oriana Skylar Mastro | The Lowy Institute