China’s defence-industry rankings: down but by no means out
In a new audit of global defence companies, Chinese state-owned enterprises seem to have slumped in the rankings. Despite appearances, we shouldn’t underestimate the strength of the Chinese defence technological and industrial base, argues Meia Nouwens. ​

BREAKING DEFENSE

Failure to Resolve the GERD Issue Portends a Global Crisis and Mass Migration

Pakistan a ‘safe haven’ for ‘terror groups’: U.S. State Department

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-wants-ownership-south-china-sea-heres-why-cant-happen-165070

Libya score-settling moves closer to Turkey’s borders
Turkey’s intervention in the Libyan war is driving its adversaries to retaliate beyond Libya in conflict zones along Turkey’s own borders.  Read More  

Turkey’s lira slides as Central Bank raises inflation forecast
Despite state bank efforts to bolster Turkey’s currency, the lira fell to its lowest point since May against the dollar this week, prompting fears of a renewed currency crisis.  Read More  

Israel facing tensions on northern, southern borders
 The IDF is now worried not only about escalating tensions on the Syrian and Lebanese borders but also about growing tensions along the border with the Gaza Strip.

​It’s time for a third special operations revolution  David Maxwell | Senior Fellow
​United Arab Emirates: UAE Urges Turkey to Stay Out of Arab Affairs.  An Emirati official on Saturday urged Turkey to stop interfering in Arab affairs after Turkey condemned “malicious” actions by the United Arab Emirates in Libya.  Anwar Gargash, Emirati minister of state for foreign affairs, said that Turkey should not behave like “the Sublime Porte and use the language of colonialism,” which refers to the Ottoman Empire which used to rule the Arab world.  In Libya, Turkey supports the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord, while the United Arab Emirates supports Khalifa Haftar with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Russia.  Dunya News Reuters

United Arab Emirates: UAE Starts Nuclear Power Plant.  The United Arab Emirates has started its first nuclear reactor at the Barakah plant, which is operated by the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation and Korea Electric Power Corporation.  Experts have raised concerns about environmental consequences as well as the potential for a regional nuclear arms race.  The United Arab Emirates is the first Arab country to open a nuclear power plant, but stated that it will only be used for energy purposes.  Israel and Iran are the other regional powers with nuclear capabilities.  Al Jazeera The New York Times  ​

This shaped the selection of the past two Chiefs of Naval Operations, including Adm. Michael Gilday, who was just a three-star when he was picked for the Navy's top job a year ago. In an hour-long interview, the CNO told Ignatius that he believes his service's problems stem from a decline in professional competency and a rise in character lapses. "Gilday says he wants to reboot the Navy's core culture, which begins with proficiency at sea. The Navy's operations tempo has been so stretched over the past two decades that officers and sailors don't have time to learn good seamanship and navigation. The sea is unforgiving; it magnifies the smallest mistakes. And sadly, in this stressed fleet, too many have cut ethical corners." Read on, here.

How Can We Know if Professional Military Education Works? by Megan J. Hennessey

Libya’s Hifter warns Erdogan: Stay out of Libya or you face our bullets 
Eastern Libya’s military strongman Khalifa Hifter warned Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday to stay out of Libya, saying that Turkish forces will be met “with bullets.” The threat comes as Turkey and Hifter’s main rival, the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli, are pressing a counteroffensive to repel the eastern general’s forces from the key coastal city of Sirte, gateway to much of Libya’s coveted oil reserves. Turkey has deployed thousands of rebels from Syria to fight alongside forces loyal to the GNA. Apparently in response, Russia has introduced fighter aircraft into the conflict in recent months. Meanwhile, Egypt has threatened to militarily intervene on Hifter’s side if the GNA should advance on Sirte and al-Jufra. Along with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia also back Hifter. On Sunday, a spokesman for the GNA said Russian-made cargo planes carried new military shipments to Hifter’s forces in Sirte and al-Jufra.   Read More    arabnews.com

US: China’s relations with Iran will ‘destabilize’ Middle East 
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday that China’s proposed economic and security partnership with Iran would destabilize the Middle East and put Washington’s close partners in the region, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, at risk. “China’s entry into Iran will destabilize the Middle East,” Pompeo said on Fox News on Sunday morning, in apparent reference to a proposed deal obtained by The New York Times last month. “It’ll put Israel at risk. It’ll put the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates at risk as well,” Pompeo said Sunday. The Trump administration has sought to strangle Iran’s supply of cash and its ability to produce and export weapons systems, particularly ballistic missiles, since Washington withdrew from the 2015 international nuclear agreement with Tehran. How serious Beijing’s draft agreement with Tehran really is remains tobe seen, but the proposal would significantly expand China’s involvement in Iran’s telecommunications, banking and transportation infrastructure.
 Read More  
state.gov

Michael Oakeshott’s Dialogic Imagination
by Emina Melonic
Without taking into consideration a metaphysical make-up of human beings and the world that surrounds them, comprehending political life will be difficult, Read More »

Havel and the Ideological Temptation

ICYMI: China Has Squandered Its First Great Opportunity
By Richard Fontaine
​The world has experienced a six-month geopolitical vacuum, and China has filled it poorly.

It’s time for a US Navy port call in Somaliland
 Michael Rubin | RealClearDefense
 It is rare that a simple action could win a policy trifecta, but sending a destroyer or cruiser to the port of Berbera could achieve just that

Israel Versus Anyone: A Military Net Assessment of the Middle East
By Kenneth S. Brower, August 2, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: This shows that, as compared to Israeli military capability, neither the US nor Russia can project meaningful conventional military power into the Middle East unless they are provided with both many months to mobilize and a lack of opposition during the long process of deployment. This conclusion implies that any US-proposed mutual defense treaty offered to Israel would be militarily meaningless. Moreover, the study shows that, over the long term, any such treaty would actually result in significantly diminished Israeli national security.
Continue to full article ->

Can Hezbollah and Israel Avoid War? by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
July 30, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61345/hezbollah-complicated-strategic-calculus

AFRICOM ordered to plan move out of Germany, latest pullout from key European ally
(Military Times) U.S. Africa Command has been ordered to make plans to move out of its headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany, its commander announced in an early morning media release.

US Strategic Command now analyzes daily deterrence risks for all combatant commands
(Defense News) In the last six months, U.S. Strategic Command has begun performing daily analysis on the state of nuclear deterrence in each of the regional combatant commands, STRATCOM commander Adm. Charles Richard said Thursday.

Army examining basing options for new weapons in Indo-Pacific
(National Defense) The Army continues to analyze options for basing new long-range precision weapons in the Indo-Pacific region, to be used by one of its new multi-domain task forces, the service's top officer said July 31.

China’s J-20 carrier-based jet fighter influenced by US – not Soviet – thinking, designer says
(South China Morning Post) As tensions between Beijing and Washington continue to rise, China’s military aircraft designers are racing to develop a next-generation fighter jet for use on the nation’s aircraft carriers capable of competing with their American rivals.

Time for Turkey to call in the International Monetary Fund
Desmond Lachman | The Hill 
 
Despite macroeconomic mismanagement and the embrace of highly unorthodox economic ideas, Turkey has skirted crisis for some time. However, since the onset of COVID-19, the tide has suddenly turned. It may be time for Turkey to call in the International Monetary Fund. 

What the F-35 of the Future Will Look Like
By Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics: “The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is scheduled to receive a long list of upgrades that will ideally keep it the dominant multi-role fighter for years to come.”
Project Blackjack: DARPA’s Leo Satellites Take Off
By Harry Lye, Air Force-Technology: “DARPA is working with Lockheed Martin on the first stage of satellite integration for project blackjack, a military low earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation. Harry Lye finds out more from the programme leaders.”

U.S., RUSSIA:
Trump Nominee to Russia: Abandon ‘Flying Chernobyl’ Nuclear Missile
From The Moscow Times: “U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for a top arms control post in the State Department has said Russia should stop developing what he believes is a dangerous nuclear-powered cruise missile.”
​
U.S., INDIA:
U.S. and India are Deepening Military Ties - China is Watching
By Jane Doe, The Diplomat: “The U.S. military’s top officer in the Pacific urged Indian officials Wednesday to pursue even closer military ties with the United States.”

Sub Hunters Continue to Prove Their Worth
By Charles Walker, RealClearDefense: “Submarines are an important weapon in any countries arsenal. The threat of an attack by a submarine is a concern to the operators of all merchant and naval vessels.” ​

IRAQ:
Iraq Moves Towards S-400 Acquisition
By Charles Forrester, Jane's: "Iraq has become the latest country to consider acquiring the Russian-made S-400 Triumf (NATO reporting name SA-21 'Growler'), the Iraqi press reported on 18 April."
RUSSIA:
Russia Abandons Nuclear Destroyer, Supersized Frigate Programs
By Joseph Trevithick, The WarZone: “Russia's Severnoye Design Bureau has stopped development entirely of its Project 23560 destroyers, also known as the Lider class, and the Project 22350M frigate, an expanded derivative of the Project 22350 Admiral Gorshkovclass. The company has said these ships are among its most promising future offerings and the halting of the two programs has raised questions about its long-term financial stability."

Chinese Soldiers Seen Testing New QBZ-191 Assault Rifle
By Peter Suciu, The National Interest: "Last week Chinese state media released footage of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA's) next-generation assault rifle, the QBZ-191. This would replace the QBZ-95-1 bullpup that has been in service since 1997."

The top Marine told reporters Wednesday that current layout and organization of the Corps’ Light Armored Reconnaissance units were better equipped to handle another conflict in the Middle East instead of rising near-peer rivals. – Defense News ​

Patrick M. Cronin and Ryan D. Neuhard write: China is not playing games in the Indo-Pacific. The United States needs to implement a comprehensive competitive strategy that proactively outmaneuvers China’s government and leverages U.S. strengths. Until policymakers do, they may as well spend their time playing laser tag while the rest of us watch the Indo-Pacific gradually slip into China’s control. – The Diplomat ​

Light Armored Reconnaissance Is Outmoded on Future Battlefield
By Shawn Snow, Marine Corps Times: “The top Marine told reporters Wednesday that current layout and organization of the Corps’ Light Armored Reconnaissance units were better equipped to handle another conflict in the Middle East instead of rising near-peer rivals."
​
Indo-Pacom Chief’s Bold $20 Billion Plan
By Paul McLeary, Breaking Defense: “The bold new Pacific plan "is designed to persuade potential adversaries that any preemptive military action will be extremely costly and likely fail," ADM Philip Davidson writes."

Nuclear power’s ray of hope: hydrogen-boron fusionIn 1933 the physicists Ernest Rutherford and Mark Oliphant reported on experiments in which they bombarded a thin film of the boron compound borax by a beam of protons and registered the emission of high-energy alpha particles. This confirmed the earlier evidence of Cockcroft and Walton, that nuclear reactions were taking place between protons and boron nuclei, resulting in the transmutation of chemical elements. Read More

The Navy has taken several cracks over the years at trying to define a new future aircraft carrier, one that might be less expensive or less vulnerable. But each time, the Navy has moved forward with the nuclear-powered supercarrier concept, in part because it provides an unmatched sortie-generation capability, and in part, because it’s built by a workforce that would be tough or impossible to reconstitute if the Navy ever stopped supporting it. – USNI News ​

The Marine Corps: Quo Vadis?
(RealClear Defense) Many defense experts believe that defense spending has peaked and may decline in future years. This will intensify the longstanding competition for finite resources among the U.S. military services. In that climate, it will be more important than ever for the U.S. Marine Corps to understand and explain its unique contributions to national security.

Expeditionary Advanced Maritime Operations: How the Marine Corps Can Avoid Becoming a Second Land Army in the Pacific by Jake Yeager

CHINA:
A Beginner's Guide to Analyzing China's Military Tech
By Rick Joe, The Diplomat: "The Chinese military (People's Liberation Army, or PLA) has been receiving growing coverage and media interest over the past decade as China's national profile has grown and as new weapons systems have progressively become unveiled."

‘You Can’t Have It All’ With 31 Modernization Priorities
By Sydney Freedberg, Breaking Defense: "One of the savviest — and snarkiest — veterans of the Army acquisition system is warning  her former colleagues that not all 31 of the service’s priority programs will survive."

Special Operations Command Made a Mind-Reading Kit For Elite Troops
By Patrick Tucker, Defense One: "The experimental tool is among several that aim to combine sensors and AI to give U.S. operators a new edge"

Why Italy Is Pivotal to U.S. Strategy in the Mediterranean
By Sarah White, RealClearDefense: “Mohammed Morsi has been sentenced to 20 years in prison, a former general is head of state, and charges against Hosni Mubarak have been dismissed—it's like 2011 all over again.” ​

F-15EX and F-35A? Allies Can Expand the Solution Set
By Hunter Hustus, War on the Rocks: "Will the U.S. Air Force have what it takes to win the air-to-air fight with China or Russia? The answer isn’t so simple."

Navy Must Work To Secure Its Platforms, Networks And Installations From Cyber Attack
By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: “The threat to the U.S. Navy from cyber intrusion has become a crisis. Hackers, particularly those from Russia and China, are not limiting themselves to attacks on computers and networks. Now they are engaged in a massive assault on the entire Navy enterprise, including ships, weapons systems, research and development establishments, the supply chain, and shore facilities.” 

Exploring the Foundation of Multi-Domain Ops
By Brandon C. Kasubaski, Small Wars Journal: “While TP 525-3-1 establishes what MDO achieves and how it supports the Army’s strategic roles, the underlying foundational strategies and how they contribute to MDO are absent. Understanding and interpreting these foundational strategies is critical for planners and leaders to gain insight into MDO.”

Assessment of the Current State of U.S. Cyber Civil Defense
By Lee Clark, Divergent Options: “Local civic organizations in the U.S. are experiencing a wave of costly and disruptive low-sophistication cyberattacks on a large scale, indicating widespread vulnerabilities in networks. In light of past and ongoing threats to U.S. cyber systems, especially election systems, this weak cybersecurity posture represents a serious national security concern.” ​

​U.S. Army Mission Command at a Crossroads
By Ryan Orsini, Strategy Bridge: "Mission command’s place in this larger doctrinal reassessment is critical. It is the U.S. Army’s leadership philosophy of decentralized execution to enable initiative and adaptability."

In Search of Ideas: The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Wants You 
by Robert Work and Eric Schmidt
​
Anticipating a New Russian Military Doctrine in 2020: What it Might Contain and Why it Matters 
by Dara Massicot