Rising interest rates could add to budget woes
James C. Capretta | RealClearPolicy  
 
As the federal government closed its books on fiscal year 2018 at the end of September, interest rates were rising to levels not seen in a decade, signaling the possibility of further deterioration in the budget outlook for 2019 and beyond. James Capretta argues that the past year has been positive for the US economy but a step in the wrong direction for fiscal policy. As economic growth accelerates and the Fed tightens monetary policy, interest rates are beginning to resemble what they were before the financial crisis. Capretta believes that if current trends continue, the federal government will be forced to pay higher interest rates on borrowed funds, and budget deficits will widen accordingly. Now is exactly the right time to restrain projected deficits with reforms of government programs.

Trump Doctrine Is Starting To Come Into Focus
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun
October 26, 2018
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/trump-doctrine-is-starting-to-emerge/90442/

One Nation, Two Economies
Joel Kotkin, City Journal
 
Who Deserves Credit for the Strong US Economy?
Michael Boskin, Project Syndicate

Falling Share Prices And The Outlook For The US Economy
by Martin Feldstein via Project Syndicate
Three forces will cause US long-term interest rates to continue to rise. But, in all likelihood, short-term rates will not increase fast enough to give the Federal Reserve sufficient room for monetary stimulus before the next economic downturn begins.

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GCR2018/05FullReport/TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2018.pdf?mod=article_inline

BLOOMBERG

WHY SEARS FAILED

The Ticking Pension Bomb

The necessity and impossibility of entitlement reform
James C. Capretta | RealClearPolicy 
Republicans say they know the problem is entitlement spending but won’t do anything about it because they fear the Democrats. The Democrats respond by saying even a politician who thinks entitlement reform is necessary should get thrown out of office. These are the leaders we are trusting to put the nation’s fiscal affairs in order.

How to fix America’s entitlements: A long-read Q&A with James Capretta 
James Pethokoukis and James C. Capretta | AEIdeas 

HOW THE MID-TERMS BREAK DOWN

The 2018 midterms state of play 
Karlyn Bowman | AEIdeas

Monthly jobs report: Beyond the headlines
Aparna Mathur | AEIdeas 
The official unemployment rate may be a useful benchmark, but it does not tell the whole story. You have to look beyond the headline number to understand the situation of the American workforce

The Danger Of Regulatory Capture
by John B. Taylor via PolicyEd
Regulatory capture occurs when regulatory agencies become dominated by the very industries they were charged with regulating, prompting regulators to advance the goals and interests of those industries. While regulation is necessary and can be done well, it must always be balanced against the potential for unintended consequences that harm the consumers it is intended to protect.

Reining in the administrative state

From the archives: Is American sovereignty passé? 
Karlyn Bowman and Joseph Kosten | AEIdeas

The problem with Trump’s ‘doctrine of patriotism’ 
Jonah Goldberg | NationalReview.com

Dangers of a doctrine of patriotism

Dangers of a doctrine of patriotism
Oriana Skylar Mastro | The Hill 
The United States calculated that bearing the burden for regional security would pay off in the form of political influence and global stability, both of which would be at risk in a doctrine of patriotism laid out by President Trump.

Kavanaugh Rage Is, In Essence, About Abortion
By JENNIFER BRACERAS, Special to the Sun | September 28, 2018
https://www.nysun.com/national/kavanaugh-rage-is-in-essence-about-abortion/90405/

​Secret History Of The Controversy Over Kavanaugh
By IRA STOLL, Special to the Sun | October 1, 2018
https://www.nysun.com/national/secret-history-of-the-controversy-over-kavanaugh/90409/

bipartisan achievement on opioids: Congress recognizes employment as a crucial component of recovery 
Robert Doar | AEIdeas  
 
Last week, the Senate passed a bill containing several measures meant to combat the opioid crisis. Robert Doar argues that perhaps the most important achievement of the bill is the provision for a grant program that would provide job training, housing, and health care to those attempting to overcome their addiction. People with substance abuse disorders need care and temporarily comprehensive assistance, but they also benefit from getting back into regular work. Doar believes that work provides a routine, a sense of purpose, and camaraderie with coworkers and can keep recovering substance abusers from relapsing. These changes, coupled with state-level reforms to limit the widespread prescription of potentially dangerous drugs, should bring about some progress in the fight against opioids. 
 
 
The geographic variation in the cost of the opioid crisis 
Alex Brill and Scott Ganz | AEI Economics Working Paper Series  
 
As the opioid epidemic worsens in the United States, the toll it imposes on the US economy has risen to staggering heights. Alex Brill and Scott Ganz estimate per capita state-level and county-level non-mortality and total economic burdens of the opioid crisis in 2015 by distributing national estimates based on variation in local wages, health care costs, and criminal justice costs; variation in opioid-related death and addiction rates; and average age-adjusted value of statistical lives lost. Their findings indicate that among the lower 48 states in 2015, per capita non-mortality costs were highest in the District of Columbia ($493) and New Hampshire ($360). Median per capita non-mortality costs were $205 in Kentucky and Pennsylvania. Per capita total costs (including mortality costs) were highest in West Virginia ($4,378) and the District of Columbia ($3,657). Median per capita total costs were $1,672 in Nevada.

Dirtiest Trick In U.S. History Comes Into Focus
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | September 13, 2018
​https://www.nysun.com/national/dirtiest-trick-in-us-history-comes-into-focus/90384/

Levels and changes in income poverty, consumption poverty, and material well-being
Bruce D. Meyer and James X. Sullivan | AEI Economics Working Paper Series 
This paper responds to a working paper by Luke Shaefer and Joshua Rivera, which criticizes some of Bruce Meyer's and James Sullivan's published work on trends in income and consumption-based poverty measures in the US.