Ed Lazear: November Jobs Number The Strongest In A Long Time
interview with Edward Paul Lazear via CNBC
Growth Will Require a Resurgence of Productivity
Conor Sen, Bloomberg
The future of employment in an age of automation: A long-read Q&A with Carl Benedikt Frey
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
Carl Benedikt Frey and James Pethokoukis discuss the impacts of technological progress on the economy, past and present.
James Capretta writes that while disaster is not imminent, high levels of debt will eventually constrain effective governance, hurt the economy, and invite a crisis.
2019 at front end of a long-term fiscal problem
James C. Capretta | RealClearPolicy
While the final federal budget for fiscal year 2019 doesn't show a need for precipitous deficit cutting, Congress needs to act soon to limit the borrowing projected for 10, 20, and 30 years from now. Eventually, high levels of federal debt will constrain effective governance, hurt the economy, and invite a crisis. Progress will require bipartisan compromise and probably occur in steps rather than all at once.
An Agenda for the Intangible Economy
Jonathan Haskel & Sitan Westlake, City Journal
From the appetizing smells and disciplined, busy cooks, you’d think it was the kitchen of a bustling restaurant, filled with diners. But with no tables to reserve, no serving staff, and just a discreet entrance, where Uber Eats and Deliveroo drivers (the only clientele this kitchen serves) pick up orders, this is a “dark kitchen,” bringing together chefs and their wares with online search and food-delivery platforms—businesses based on software, data, and proprietary networks of drivers. Read more here....
What does ‘high crimes and misdemeanors’ mean?
Gary J. Schmitt and Joseph M. Bessette | American Enterprise Institute
Through an analysis of the text of the Constitution, the Constitutional Convention, the ratification debates, and British and American impeachment precedents, it is possible to reach a broad understanding of what constitutes “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
Bill Barr’s Federalist Sequel
The attorney general channels Madison and Hamilton.
2019 at the Front End of a Long-Term Fiscal Problem
James Capretta, RealClearPolicy
Deindustrialization Isn’t Just a Working-Class Problem
Anuska Jain & Samuel Hammond, The Bulwark
5 questions for Stian Westlake on how to handle the intangible economy
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
The Court Moves Right
But judges have a lot of unlearning to do.
The Administration’s First-String Team
Two of Trump’s top lieutenants have their eye on what’s crucial.
Trump's Economic Policies: An Assessment, Part II
by David R. Henderson via Defining Ideas
In this essay: What the president has done wrong.
Issues 2020: The Trump Economy – Solid but Not the GOAT
Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute
America’s economy has experienced a long, gradual recovery from the Great Recession of 2007–09, which was the nation’s sharpest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Certainly, conditions are better than 10 years ago, when the unemployment rate peaked at 10%. But in any business cycle, the peak looks better than the trough; more meaningful is a comparison across cycles, between one peak and another. In that context, America’s current economic performance remains disappointing. Read more here....
by Michael R. Auslin via The Claremont Review of Books
For internationalists, institutionalists, and liberals of various sorts, the past two decades have uncomfortably proved the perceptiveness of Samuel Huntington’s 1996 jeremiad The Clash of Civilizations, itself a response to Francis Fukuyama’s 1992 article “The End of History” and subsequent book. Even if civilizations per se are not clashing, that an era of revived great-power competition threatens global stability is largely recognized as the great international relations challenge of this generation
Five pillars are key to understanding the main areas of debate about the nature and scope of administrative agency action: nondelegation, judicial deference, executive control of agencies, procedural rights, and agency dynamics.
The Battle of the Nile in 47 BC saw the combined Roman-Egyptian armies of Julius Caesar and Cleopatra VII defeat those of her rivals Queen Arsinoe IV and King Ptolemy XIII and secure the throne of Egypt. Here: Cleopatra and Caesar (1866). Painting by Jean-Léon Gérôme. Public domain.
An early Persian internal war: painting of Cyrus and Astyages by Jean Charles Nicaise Perrin. Public domain.
Michael E Vlahos of Johns Hopkins continues the discussion of a possible American civil war — currently.
The previous king used the national security apparatus to forward his own goals. Marius had been Sulla’s old commander, were close friends. In Rome: the sanctity of office; how Consuls were elected and served. Eventually, Sulla had to declare Marius an enemy of the State. Once the requirements were overturned, then everyone understood that it could be done again – which led to Caesar, and the end of the republic. Red and Blue together have allowed impeachment to become a normative political tool. A huge mistake. Soon: the losing side will declare the winning side to be illegitimate. In 2000, the Supreme Court decided who was president, which stopped that process. Now, however, the Court is no longer is in such high esteem. Current American process cannot be stopped because the gravity of the matter is not recognized; Blue thinks it's doing the right thing by pursuing its goals, which can in turn set in motion a most dangerous set of events. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulla%27s_first_civil_war
The Little-Known Reform That Could Improve States’ Fiscal Health
Thurston Powers, E21
Many states across the nation are struggling with long-term financial liabilities. But not all liabilities are the same. Some are riskier than others. While we all intuitively know this, the way that the liabilities of state and local governments are reported often disguises and understates (or overstates) risks and costs. Presenting policymakers and the public with the range of potential outcomes could avert some fiscal crises. Read more here....
America and Strategies For The Future With George P. Shultz
by George P. Shultz via PolicyEd
Former Secretary of State George Shultz discusses the importance of strengthening our nation’s leadership, the impact other countries have on the United States, and the dangers of making empty threats.
A Note to Readers on Our 10th Anniversary
Yuval Levin | Editor in Chief, National Affairs
This edition of National Affairs, our 41st quarterly issue, marks the magazine’s 10th anniversary. This makes us still a young and fledgling enterprise. But it also offers a chance to reflect briefly on the work we have done and continue to do in an era of political uncertainty and change.
Continue reading here.
A new vision for health reform
Joseph Antos and Alice M. Rivlin | The Concord Coalition
Health spending is the largest component of the federal budget and is expected to double over the next decade if left unchecked. A similar sharp increase is projected for consumers, employers, and state governments. Controlling costs will require a comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of high spending. It must increase competitive pressures on health care prices, both from the demand and supply sides, allowing pressure from patients to help control costs. This paper details how to arm purchasers — consumers, physicians, insurers, employers, and the government — to make cost-effective decisions in a competitive market environment.
Improving the productivity of public services is a thankless but necessary endeavor
James C. Capretta | RealClearPolicy
The administration would have more success restraining spending if it emphasized improving government productivity instead of eliminating functions and agencies that powerful factions in Congress support.
The personality of American power
Giselle Donnelly | The American Interest
Challenges to America’s role abroad are more likely to lead to a strategic restoration than a realist revolution.
Rising economic productivity — blip or boom?
Bret Swanson | AEIdeas
We are still a long way from fully transforming health care, education, manufacturing, transportation, food, retail, and other sectors into information industries.But we are now seeing the first breakout of productivity growth in more than a decade, suggesting we may be on the edge of a longer-term productivity revival.
To really determine who is poor in the US, count all antipoverty spending
Matt Weidinger | RealClearPolicy
An improved count and an understanding of the efficacy of programs not included in the official poverty measure would help policymakers better judge whether and what additional changes are needed to help more Americans escape poverty.
Explaining US income inequality by household demographics, 2018 update
Mark J. Perry | AEIdeas
Generous Motors No More
If the auto giant wants to keep jobs in the country, it can’t go back to offering rich benefits to union workers.
RAND CORP., ON SYNTHETIC OPIOIDS & MIDWEST STATES MOVE AHEAD ON MASS TRANSIT PLANS WHILE AMERICANS EXPERIENCE SOCIAL MOBILITY
Synthetic Opioids: An Unprecedented Crisis
The rise of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids is unlike any drug crisis in U.S. history. Limiting policy responses to existing approaches will likely be insufficient and may condemn many people to early deaths. Read more »
AARON M. RENN
If You Improve It, They Will Come
Several Midwest cities are pursuing innovative mass-transit plans—with encouraging results.
3 charts based on the census report show that the US middle class is shrinking because it's moving up
Mark J. Perry | AEIdeas
The charts confirm that America's middle class is disappearing because it's moving into higher, not lower, income groups.
2019 Chart Book Examines Spending, Taxes, and Deficits
Brian Riedl, E21
The 2019 edition of my chart book examining the federal budget, spending, taxes, and deficits is now available. The 96-page book begins by broadly looking at the rising budget deficits and national debt, and then gradually dives deeper to show the policies driving the red ink. Next, it tallies the cost of candidate proposals to add more debt, and determines whether those costs can be offset by the proposed tax increases and defense cuts. Finally, the report examines trends in tax revenues and tax progressivity, common budget myths, and offers a full accounting of the fiscal records of Presidents Bush and Obama. Read more here....
2020 Vote Looks Like 1972 -- With No WatergateBy CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | August 28, 2019
It is not too early to speculate on what the national political press, and especially the high-brow conservative Never Trumpers, are going to do after this president is comfortably reelected. The Washingtonp-New York-Los Angeles press threw everything they had against candidate Trump, nominee Trump, and the president, and they have lost everything they had.
All surveys show that their audience/readership is sinking and their commercial economics are shriveling, and no reasonable person can fail to be disgusted with the endless malicious slanders and distortions by the Lemons, Maddows, Scarboroughs, Blitzers.
Victor Davis Hanson: What Could Sink Trump's Chances In 2020?
by Victor Davis Hanson via Fox News
What factors usually reelect or throw out incumbent presidents? The economy counts most. Recessions, or at least chronic economic pessimism, sink incumbents. Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were tagged with sluggish growth, high unemployment and a sense of perceived stagnation — and were easily defeated.
1619 and all that
Giselle Donnelly | AEIdeas
In our current confusion, a deeper dive into the origins of the American experience is well warranted, but there’s much more to those origins than is dreamed of in The New York Times’ philosophy. A closer inspection of the deep roots of our political culture is not an occasion for shame, but rather for appreciation.
The Costs of Medicare for All Are Rising Already
Charles Blahous, E21
After my study of the costs of Medicare for All (M4A) was published last July, a fierce debate erupted over whether M4A, while dramatically increasing the costs borne by federal taxpayers, might nevertheless reduce total U.S. health expenditures. Now, just one year after my findings, we have substantial additional evidence that M4A would further increase, not reduce, national health spending. To be clear, no one on either side of this debate questioned my central finding that M4A would increase federal costs by an unprecedented amount. Read more here....
Medicare reform can no longer be ignored: Warnings from the 2019 Medicare trustees report
Joseph Antos and Robert E. Moffit | AEI Economic Perspectives
The latest annual Medicare trustees report highlights the program’s growing fiscal challenge and reflects policymakers’ ongoing failure to prepare Medicare for the future.
HOW GOOGLE IS THE VILLAIN TO SMALL BUSINESSES, AND HEALTH CARE REFORM; FINALLY, LAMESTREAM MEDIA PROPS UP RECESSION SEEKERS
What Is an ‘Inverted Yield Curve’?
Erik Sherman, Fortune
A Star Is Born in the Battle Over Trump's Tax Returns
Editorial of The New York Sun | October 11, 2019
A star is born. The big news in appeals court ruling in the House's subpoena for President Trump's tax records is not that the court supports it, though that's no small thing. It's the dissent by the newly minted appeals judge on the D.C. Circuit, Neomi Rao. She reckons that the way House is going after Mr. Trump violates the constitutional prohibition against bills of attainder.
Thanks to President Trump’s “America First” rhetoric and the rise of populist-nationalist parties in Europe, there’s a lot of debate about “nationalism” these days. On that subject, as on so many others, it’s worth listening to Pope St. John Paul II. Read More
The old conservative movement clearly missed something crucial about the national mood to have failed so utterly to prevent President Trump’s nomination and election. Failure to come to grips with this and to be genuinely new in some way will produce the same political failure. Read More
Recent research in Soviet intelligence files raises some interesting questions about the assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II on May 13, 1981. Read More
The quiet hours of Leonid Brezhnev
By George Weigel on Jul 17, 2019 03:01 am
On first meeting Dr. Andrzej Grajewski, you probably wouldn’t guess that this mild-mannered Polish historian is one of the world’s leading experts on the ecclesiastical Dark Side of the Cold War: the relentless communist assault [...]
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How John Paul II and Ronald Reagan stopped mass murderers
Another long weekend, another mass murder. Seven were massacred in the latest rampage in West Texas rampage. It comes with the same, almost scripted reactions from all sides: punish my enemies, leave my supporters alone. Hearts aren’t changed. In the upcoming film, “The Divine Plan,’’ Ronald Reagan and St. John Paul teach today’s leaders a […]
Animated chart of the day: World’s top 10 manufacturing nations, 1970–2017
Mark J. Perry | AEIdeas
A new home for National Affairs
It’s always a pleasure to announce an auspicious new partnership, and we launched one this week that is particularly promising. National Affairs, the policy journal Yuval Levin edits, will make its home at AEI, in the newly launched Social, Cultural, and Constitutional Studies research division.
Steven Malanga, City Journal
It’s a basic principle of investing: the greater the risk an investor takes, the greater the potential reward. But as any experienced investor can attest, increased risk can also bring bigger disappointment. That’s the case with state pension funds. To elevate returns, public-sector pensions have taken on more and more risk for nearly two decades. The result, however, has been lower returns, higher debt, and a mess for taxpayers, according to a new study by Fitch Ratings. Read more here....
The Unusual Suspects
via Budget Matters, America Off Balance
It seems every month, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) releases another report showing sharp increases in the federal debt. In June, CBO released its annual Long-Term Budget Outlook showing debt would pass 100% of GDP in 2034 and hit 144% in 2049. And, just last month, CBO’s updated 10-year budget forecasts showed even larger deficits than previously predicted.
Rumors of the nondelegation doctrine’s demise are greatly exaggerated
Peter J. Wallison | Law & Liberty
Many lawyers and legal scholars had long argued that the nondelegation doctrine was dead, but apparently rumors of its demise were exaggerated.
On the nonenforcement of nondelegation
Ramesh Ponnuru | NationalReview.com
JAMES R. COPLAND
Tugging at the Reins of the Administrative State
A Supreme Court decision suggests an interest in returning sole lawmaking powers to Congress—where they belong.
How to Avert a Public-Pension Crisis
Josh McGee, National Affairs
At the turn of the millennium, public pensions seemed to be riding high. By their own accounting, most such funds were more than fully funded, and public workers' retirement benefits were more generous than ever after a round of enhancements in the 1990s. But the two decades that followed have decimated the finances of many public-pension funds, resulting in steeply rising taxpayer costs and serious negative effects on public workers' salaries, jobs, and benefits. Read more here....
The Terminator Myth: It’s Not Robots That Hurt Workers
Oren Cass, E21
Education is the job-killer lurking beneath the economy’s surface. Consider an exemplary employer making major investments in training for each of his 100 workers, even covering tuition for those who might benefit from technical courses at a local college. Say the investments have incredible returns, too—by the end of the year, each worker is twice as productive and 50 can do the work that last year required 100. That means 50 jobs have been destroyed. Read more here...
Issues 2020: Automation Is Not What’s Hurting Workers
Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute
Automation refers to the substitution of technology for human labor. As tasks become automated, fewer people are required to produce a given amount of output each hour—in other words, each worker becomes more productive. That rising productivity is the mechanism by which workers’ wages rise over time and society as a whole becomes more prosperous. The same thing happens when a firm invests in training that allows each worker to produce more. No one says that training “destroys jobs.” Read more here....
Eight Revealing Numbers from the Social Security 2100 Act
Charles Blahous, E21
Advocates of Social Security expansion have declared their intention to move the “Social Security 2100 Act” through the House of Representatives before August recess. The bill, introduced by Rep. John Larson (D., Conn.), has more than 200 co-sponsors. Its sponsors deserve credit for putting forth a comprehensive Social Security plan that is specific, scored by the Social Security Administration Chief Actuary and, though it contains elements clearly designed to appeal to certain ideological and special interests, also doesn’t shy away from difficult policy and political choices. Read more here....