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GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA 
state of the nation

THE PANDEMIC BRINGS RECESSION & HOW HAYAK HELPS US RECOVER

4/4/2020

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CHART:  SHARE OF US SMALL BUSINESSES
Pressing Pause on Mortgage Payments
Arpit Gupta, City Journal

Most Americans are homeowners, and mortgage payments generally represent their biggest financial burden. Mortgage forbearance—when a mortgage provider agrees to let the homeowner pause or reduce his payments for a certain period—thus has a direct beneficial impact on struggling household finances. Forgiving mortgage debt, however, imposes a significant financial burden, which must be borne by lenders or taxpayers. The federal CARES Act tries to strike a balance between the benefits of household mortgage relief and its costs by imposing a temporary moratorium on foreclosures and allowing forbearance on government-backed mortgages (primarily those by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration). 

Read more here.... 
What Shape Recovery?
featuring John H. Cochrane via Seeking Alpha
Will the recovery be V shaped, quickly roaring back to the previous level? It does that every January 2 after the long Halloween-Thanksgiving-Christmas-New Year's slowdown, and it did in 1984. Or will it be an agonizingly slow U or L shape, as the recovery from 2008 turned out to be?
James Capretta writes that contact tracing will be essential to reopening our economy, Alan Viard warns against excessive pessimism in forecasting, and Desmond Lachman explains how the complex global nature of the virus' economic impact will slow the recovery.
With the passage of three major responses to the pandemic, debate continues over how to implement what has been passed and whether continued aid is necessary. James Pethokoukis stresses the urgency of effectively distributing aid to small businesses, Glenn Hubbard argues that more support for hospitals and small and midsize businesses is necessary, and Paul Kupiec points out the efficacy of stimulus depends on whether it is calibrated to the duration of the crisis.
Our So-Called Foreign Policy: Meanwhile, Back at the Tech Wars….
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Great Recession-Like Jobs Report
Don’t bank on a quick economic recovery
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Yes, These New (Pre-CCP Virus) U.S. Trade Figures Really Matter
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: When Industries Disappear
How to Get America Working Again
Mickey D. Levy & Robert S. Kaplan, Manhattan Institute

Last week’s unprecedented surge of 3.3 million initial unemployment claims quantifies some of the cost of the shutdowns to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve is appropriately focused on keeping the financial system operating and preventing a financial crisis, and the $2 trillion stimulus will provide income support to sidelined workers and financial help for businesses that face interruptions in demand and cash flow. But monetary and fiscal stimulus aren’t substitutes for the most important task: getting the unemployed back to work while protecting their health and safety. Read more here....
UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS FOR THE INITIAL PANDEMIC
Michael Farren, Mercatus Center, George Mason University, & TheHill; in re:  Skyrocketing unemployment claims: 6.6 million this week.  The national economy has seized.    It’ll get worse before it gets better; it does mean that social distancing is working, diminishing the transmission of the disease. We’re trading off a short financial crisis—a recession—in favor of a recovery sooner. Won’t see needed relief till mid-April or later.   Unemployment insurance in no way can sustain a family; it’s designed to have people continue looking for work, but here we specifically don't want people out looking for work.

This is not a standard recession—the sky isn't falling—this is not the result of deep structural problems; rather, it's a government-induced recession to [avoid something worse].
https://www.hoover.org/research/grim-costs-total-lockdowns?utm_source=Hoover+Daily+Report&utm_campaign=f56f5e41f3-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_03_30_06_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_21b1edff3c-f56f5e41f3-72527561
The future of public-employee unions
Daniel DiSalvo | National Affairs
The past decade has been a critical juncture for public-sector unions, one that will likely have lasting political and economic effects. Liberals argue that public unions' membership will fall and their political power will decline, which will harm the Democratic Party. But there are compelling reasons to be skeptical about these claims.
The road to workforce recovery
Mason M. Bishop | AEIdeas
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