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WHY 5G MATTERS FOR A.I., INTELLIGENCE AND MULTI-DOMAIN BATTLE

4/26/2019

If DARPA Has Its Way, AI Will Rule the Wireless Spectrum
By Paul Tilghman, IEEE Spectrum: “DARPA’s Spectrum Collaboration Challenge demonstrates that autonomous radios can manage spectrum better than humans can ."

Scaling the Levels of War: The Strategic Major and the Future of Multi-Domain Operations
by Heather Venable and Jared R. Donnelly

Horns of a Dilemma: Seeing Beyond the Horizon – Intelligence Challenges in a Rapidly Changing World by Susan Gordon and Stephen Slick

How AI Could Change The Art Of War
By Sydney Freedberg, Breaking Defense: "“I’m not talking about killer robots,” said Prof. Andrew Hill, the War College’s first-ever chair of strategic leadership and one of the conference’s lead organizers, at the opening session. The Pentagon wants AI to assist human combatants, not replace them. The issue is what happens once humans start taking military advice — or even orders — from machines."

Five Eyes Must Lead on 5G
By Mike Gallagher & Tom Tugendhat, War on the Rocks: "If the United States and United Kingdom do not lead their partners in the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance and NATO in an effort to secure 5G networks, no one will."

Tactical Risk in Multi-Domain Operations
By Kevin Benson, Modern War Institute: "I believe history does not repeat itself, but as Mark Twain pointed out at times it does rhyme. Once again in my life our Army is reassessing how it will fight large-scale ground combat operations against peer and near-peer adversaries, possibly while outnumbered."

RUSSIA:
Russia’s Sudden Change of Heart on AI
By Dov S. Zakheim, The Hill: "The Russians once again have found they cannot seriously compete with the US or China in an AI arms race."

How To Wage Global Cyber War: Nakasone, Norton, & Deasy
By Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.
The military needs a globe-spanning network to counter threats that no single theater command can cope with. That takes more than just technology.

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THOUGHTS ON DOMINANT TRENDS FOR RMA & HOW ARMY DOES TUNNEL WARFARE

4/21/2019

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The New Revolution Same As the Old Rhetoric by Morgan Deane

All This ‘Innovation’ Won’t Save the Pentagon
By Zachery Tyson Brown, Defense One: “The Defense Department, a hierarchy fixated on technology, is unequipped to confront a world of disruptive challenges."

DARPA, Army Teaming to Pursue New Swarming Capabilities
By Connie Lee, National Defense Magazine: “The concept involves outfitting about 200 to 300 soldiers with a large number of autonomous platforms that have sensors and kinetic and non-kinetic weapons>"

AFRL Needs Specialized Autonomy Team to Drive Progress
By Rachel S. Cohen, Air Force Magazine: “A new Air Force report suggests elevating a cross-cutting Air Force Research Laboratory team to “prioritize and coordinate” the lab’s entire autonomy portfolio at a crucial moment for development in that area."

The Army wants a way to map underground tunnels using ground robots and drones
(Army Times) The Army’s Rapid Equipping Force is looking to industry for a portable way for soldiers to map remote tunnels using either ground robots or drones, and they want it fast.

The defense community suffered a grave loss on the morning of Tuesday, March 26, with the passing of Andrew W. Marshall at age 97.The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) and the Congressionally mandated 2018 NDS Commission refocused U.S. defense planning on the need to compete with, and potentially fight, China and Russia. Although the latter stressed the urgent need for additional resources for defense, it also acknowledged that bigger budgets would likely prove insufficient to support the national defense strategy. Needed are new ways of war that can bridge the gap between our ends and our means. To date, however, the Pentagon has been silent on the topic of innovative operational concepts: what they should be and who should develop them. The Fiscal 2020 National Defense Authorization Act that Congress is currently considering offers an opportunity to spur needed action in this area.

The U.S. strategic community took a quarter-century respite from thinking seriously about great-power competition and conflict after the end of the Cold War. In the 1990s, it reveled in notions of the "unipolar moment" and the "end of history." Following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, it was consumed with the need to defeat irregular adversaries who lacked the ability to contest U.S. supremacy in any domain of warfare. The need to win the wars we were already fighting took precedence over the responsibility to prepare for the very different wars we might have to fight in the future. In such an environment, the Defense Department embraced, explicitly or implicitly, a series of optimistic strategic assumptions, to include:

The United States will face one adversary at a time;
The United States will be a sanctuary from adversary attack;
The United States will have assured access to critical facilities and locations on allied and partner territory; and
A conflict with China would be a local war confined to a portion of the Western Pacific, would be short, and would have a clear beginning and end.

U.S. force planning relied upon similarly rosy operational assumptions, to include:

The United States and its allies will be able to achieve air superiority operating from land and sea bases;
The United States will enjoy an operational sanctuary in space;
U.S. information networks will remain secure; and
The United States will be able to resupply its forces in the event of a high-intensity war.

The growth of Chinese military power has rendered these assumptions questionable, if not obsolete. Rather, the 2018 National Defense Strategy Commission found that today the United States and its allies face a series of operational challenges:

Protecting critical bases of operations, including the U.S. homeland, forces abroad, and allies and partners;
Rapidly reinforcing and sustaining forces engaged forward;
Assuring information systems in the face of attack and conducting effective information operations;
Projecting and sustaining U.S. forces in distant anti-access or area-denial environments and defeating anti-access and area-denial threats;
Deterring and if necessary defeating the use of nuclear or other strategic weapons in ways that would fall short of justifying a large-scale nuclear response;
Enhancing the capability and survivability of space systems and supporting infrastructure; and
Leveraging information technology and innovative concepts to develop an interoperable, Joint Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance architecture and capability that supports warfare of the future.[i]

Developing innovative operational concepts and fielding new organizations and capabilities to overcome these challenges should become the urgent focus of Defense Department investment. In an era of constrained resources, those concepts and capabilities that offer the greatest strategic and operational leverage should receive preferential funding over those that do not.

The Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Staff should lead the development of joint operational concepts, including efforts both to use existing capabilities in new and innovative ways as well as to craft roles for truly new capabilities. Congress can spark the development of innovative operational concepts by requiring and funding experiments and demonstrations and demanding realistic assessments of them.

Potential innovative programs where the Defense Department can begin these experiments include:

Neutralizing Anti-Access/Area-Denial Threats through Long-Range, Multi-Dimensional Strike. Several subordinate efforts appear particularly promising.

First, the U.S. government purchased two X-47B stealthy unmanned aerial system (UAS) technology demonstrator aircraft before terminating the program. The Defense Department could use the aircraft to develop innovative concepts of operations for stealthy land- and sea-based unmanned systems, to include the value of autonomy in such systems as well as the use of innovative logistical concepts to extend their range.

Second, the Navy is procuring three DDG-1000 Zumwalt class surface vessels. The attributes of these ships, to include their stealth, large displacement, and electric propulsion, make them both unique as surface combatants as well as potentially valuable assets for experimentation. The Defense Department could use the ships to develop concepts of operations for operating within range of an adversary's anti-access/area-denial capabilities. Specifically, they could be used to determine the value of stealthy surface combatants for conducting anti-air, anti-surface, and strike warfare in denied environments.

Third, the Defense Department is currently procuring a new Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM), which should provide a highly capable weapon against enemy ships. However, current plans call for the missile to be carried by three aircraft, the B-1B, F/A-18E/F, and F-35, which will be increasingly challenged to operate in the Western Pacific due to growing threats to aircraft, tankers, and bases in that region. Accordingly, the Defense Department should develop concepts to integrate LRASM onto the B-2 stealth bomber, which has the range and survivability that may be needed to reach Chinese or Russian shipping in defended waters. Should the concept prove successful, LRASM could subsequently be integrated onto the forthcoming B-21 bomber, which should be available in greater numbers than the B-2 for missions such as maritime strike.

Creating Anti-Access/Area Denial Challenges for Competitors. Each of the Services is developing capabilities that could be used to create anti-access challenges for competitors. The Army and Marine Corps are both exploring deploying land-based anti-ship missiles such as LRASM, the Naval Strike Missile, and Maritime Strike Tomahawk; the Navy is modernizing its anti-ship and land-attack capabilities; and, as described above, the Air Force plans to equip some of its aircraft with anti-ship missiles. Deployed in the First and Second Island Chains and fed by ISR and targeting information from UASs such as the MQ-9, such capabilities could reassure allies and deter China from committing aggression. Further experiments and demonstrations could yield innovative operational concepts for linking U.S. and allied forward-based and expeditionary land-based precision strike systems with sea-based munitions and tactical aircraft. Such experiments could yield new concepts for projecting and sustaining forces in A2/AD environments as well as reinforcing and sustaining forward engaged forces.

Protecting Critical Bases of Operations Against Salvo Attacks. The United States should develop innovative operational concepts for defending those bases. Such defenses could include medium-range high-energy lasers (HEL), high-power microwave (HPM) systems, guided projectiles launched by rapid- ring guns, and low-cost surface-to-air missiles. Unmanned and manned aircraft carrying extended- range air-to-air missiles and equipped with wide-area surveillance sensors, HELs, and possibly HPM systems could further extend the range and increase the threat engagement capacity of a base salvo defense complex.[ii]

Establishing Survivable C4ISR Networks. The Defense Department should develop innovative operational concepts and business practices to allow it to develop rapidly new space capabilities and to launch them on relatively short notice. Such an approach could include not just the development of innovative practices, but also relationships with civilian space industry. It should also explore alternatives to space for services such as communications; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; and precision navigation. For example, the Defense Department should experiment with the use of UASs such as the MQ-9 to provide such services in a space-denied environment. Indeed, UASs can provide these capabilities at a much lower cost than launching new satellites. Such initiatives would yield insight into the capabilities needed to enhance the capability and survivability of space systems and the services they provide, as well as new ways to leverage interoperable joint C4ISR in the face of adversary threats.

The development of new concepts and conclusion of experiments are not ends in and of themselves. Too often, military experiments have been side projects that create a façade of innovation without actually having any substantial impact. As a result, the forces and capabilities we have today-and are currently procuring-are out of alignment with the world of 2019 and beyond. The objective of concept development and experimentation must be to inform major shifts in investment and force structure toward the forces and capabilities that can bring the U.S. military back into alignment with the operational challenges it faces.

Thomas G. Mahnken is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and a Senior Research Professor at the Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS. From 2006 to 2009 he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy planning. He is editor of a forthcoming volume on the theory and practice of net assessment.

Notes:
[i] Providing for the Common Defense: the Assessment and Recommendations of the National Defense Strategy Commission (Washington, D.C.: National Defense Strategy Commission, 2018), p. 15.

[ii] Mark Gunzinger and Carl Rehberg, Air and Missile Defense at a Crossroads: New Concepts and Technologies to Defend America's Overseas Bases (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2018).

Image: U.S. Air Force photo by SrA Preston Cherry

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Related publication: PIERCING THE FOG OF PEACE: Developing Innovative Operational Concepts for a New Era, April 2019

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WHAT'S "NEW" ABOUT INNOVATION IN R.M.A. & WHAT OF A NUCLEAR RMA? WHAT OF URBAN DEVELOPMENTS IN RMA?

4/17/2019

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How AI Could Change The Art Of War
By Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.
Time-honored principles of command get weird when you add the fundamentally alien thinking of an artificial intelligence.

DARPA’s director on how the Pentagon can transition innovation
(C4ISRNET) Pentagon leaders have become increasingly interested in the need for innovation, meaning the new technology that comes from Silicon Valley but also the game-changing advantages that can come from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The New Revolution in Military Affairs
By Christian Brose, Foreign Affairs: “In 1898, a Polish banker and self-taught military expert named Jan Bloch published The Future of War, the culmination of his long obsession with the impact of modern technology on warfare."

Adapting Command and Control for 21st Century Seapower
By Bryan McGrath, CIMSEC: “No element of modern seapower is more worthy of evolution than the operational relationship between the Navy and Marine Corps."

A New Kind of Nuclear War
By Mark Thompson, POGO: "The Pentagon pushes for fission for fighting."

A Different Use for Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Weapons Command and Control by Jaganath Sankaran

INTUITION, THE CITY, AND WAR
(Modern War Institute ) Cities matter. They matter for fighting climate change, for fighting pandemics, and, as the Urban Warfare Project continues to demonstrate, they matter for the future of fighting itself. The heightened importance of urban spaces results from demographic developments, with the global population advancing toward 70 percent living in urban areas by 2050, and from recent trends in terrorism, counterinsurgency and stabilization efforts. Both people and the fight are converging on cities.

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THE MULTI-DOMAIN BATTLE FIELD FOR US ARMY, WHY RAYTHEON MATTERS TODAY, HOW THE GREY ZONE OF POLITICAL CYBER WAR IS US WEAK SPOT & CHINESE A.I. ADVANCES

4/3/2019

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Army’s Multi-Domain Unit ‘A Game-Changer’ In Future War
But modernizing the Army will take decades and tough decisions about everything from online propaganda to the National Guard.

Raytheon Space & Airborne Systems Rewrites The Rules For Defense Technology
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “Raytheon is that rarest of enterprises, a tech company that has managed to stay at the forefront of innovation for multiple generations."

How the Army will sustain its tactical network of the future
(C4ISRNET) The Army’s sustainment community is beginning to prepare for the challenges associated with the tactical network of the future.

The Army’s sustainment community is beginning to prepare for the challenges associated with the tactical network of the future. The Army is working to field its first capability set for what it is calling the integrated tactical network (ITN). The service’s new approach heavily relies on rapid and ongoing insertion of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) systems. – C4ISRNET

Multi-Domain Networks: The Army, The Allies & AI
Even with Australia, one of our closest allies, it can be hard to share data. And the Army’s future war plans require seamless network coordination with the other US services and foreign allies.

BREAKING DEFENSE

DARPA Picks Three Competitors For Launch Challenge Prize
By Theresa Hitchens, Wednesday, April 10, 2019 6:33 PM
Tucson-based Vector Launch, Virgin Orbit, and a “stealth” startup can compete for prizes up to $10 million in the DARPA Launch Challenge.

Assessing the U.S.-China Artificial Intelligence Competition
By Zachary Kallenborn, Modern War Institute: “Discussions of artificial intelligence are everywhere. Understandably so: AI has a seemingly limitless range applications, from schools to the battlefield. McKinsey & Company estimated that AI is likely to result in $13 trillion of additional global economic activity by 2030. AI also allows the development of autonomous weapons and novel platforms, such as advanced drone swarms. A revanchist Russia might be the scourge of the Western defense community, but Vladimir Putin has arguably issued the clearest articulation of AI’s massive potential: “Whoever becomes the leader in [AI] will become the ruler of the world.” But how do we assess who is leading?"

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the revolution in military affairs
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WHY 5G MATTERS FOR A.I., INTELLIGENCE AND MULTI-DOMAIN BATTLE

THOUGHTS ON DOMINANT TRENDS FOR RMA & HOW ARMY DOES TUNNEL WARFARE

WHAT'S "NEW" ABOUT INNOVATION IN R.M.A. & WHAT OF A NUCLEAR RMA? WHAT OF URBAN DEVELOPMENTS IN RMA?

THE MULTI-DOMAIN BATTLE FIELD FOR US ARMY, WHY RAYTHEON MATTERS TODAY, HOW THE GREY ZONE OF POLITICAL CYBER WAR IS US WEAK SPOT & CHINESE A.I. ADVANCES

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WHY 5G MATTERS FOR A.I., INTELLIGENCE AND MULTI-DOMAIN BATTLE

THOUGHTS ON DOMINANT TRENDS FOR RMA & HOW ARMY DOES TUNNEL WARFARE

WHAT'S "NEW" ABOUT INNOVATION IN R.M.A. & WHAT OF A NUCLEAR RMA? WHAT OF URBAN DEVELOPMENTS IN RMA?

THE MULTI-DOMAIN BATTLE FIELD FOR US ARMY, WHY RAYTHEON MATTERS TODAY, HOW THE GREY ZONE OF POLITICAL CYBER WAR IS US WEAK SPOT & CHINESE A.I. ADVANCES

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the revolution in military affairs
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