REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS - CounterStrikeMedia

COIN PLATES AND SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY: EXPEDITIONARY WAR MEETS COUNTERINSURGENCY & DRONE SURVEILLANCE ARRIVES

6/22/2019

Nearly 40% Lighter Body Armor Coming to Marines in 2020
By Shawn Snow, Marine Corps Times: “The Corps is gearing up to field its new lightweight body armor plates, designed to be worn in the Corps' low intensity or counterinsurgency style conflicts."

Shapes, Part I: The Shape of Airpower by Mike Pietrucha

U.S. Army making synthetic biology a priority
(Breaking Defense) The U.S. Army’s new Futures Command is accelerating research into synthetic biotechnology to help the military develop next-generation living camouflage and other never-before-seen organisms and materials.

DRONES & ICBM'S

6/17/2019

The World’s Top Combat Drones
From Army-Technology: "Four of the top ten drones are produced by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems. From Predator C Avenger to TAI Anka, Army-technology.com lists the world’s top ten combat drones based on payload capacity and weapons onboard."

Pentagon Seeks Laser-Armed Space Drones to Attack Enemy ICBMs
By Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven: "Space-based lasers, potentially operating from drones, bring a range of possibilities to include destroying enemy ICBMs, sensing ICBMs or even countering anti-satellite weapons, developers explain."

The next key to the Army network: air-ground integration
(C4ISRNET) The Army wants greater network integration with its air and ground units and has started working with industry to make that process more seamless.

The US needs an information warfare command
(War On The Rocks) Recently, the House and Senate have been evaluating Defense Department plans to set up a new Space Force. However, without any fanfare, a more important structural reorganization might be underway.

HAVE STRATEGISTS DRANK THE AI KOOL AID? DARPA'S NEW CHALLENGE: UNDERGROUND ROBOTS

6/9/2019

Army Buys 9,000 Mini-Drones, Rethinks Ground Robots
By Sydney Freedberg, Breaking Defense: "This summer, Army soldiers will deploy to Afghanistan with air support literally in the palm of their hands: the 1.16-ounce Black Hornet mini-drone. New ground robots are entering service too, next year — not to fight but to haul supplies, at least at first."

Have Strategists Drunk the “AI Race” Kool-Aid? by Zac Rogers

The Revenge of Geography in Cyberspace
By Katherine Mansted, Strategy Bridge: "The reality is, geography and borders never stopped mattering in the information age."

The Unfortunate Operational Level
By Jonathan L, Defence-In-Depth: "Is the operational level the hub where all operations are managed, or is it the level of command of a single operation, or is it a little of both?"

DARPA Challenge: Underground War Robots
By Greg Nichols, ZDNet: "The SubT Challenge is DARPA's latest foray into next gen robotics. Here's why the future of robotic warfare might be subterranean."

The Navy wants to develop and procure three new types of unmanned vehicles (UVs) in FY2020 and beyond—Large Unmanned Surface Vehicles (LUSVs), Medium Unmanned Surface Vehicles (MUSVs), and Extra-Large Unmanned Undersea Vehicles (XLUUVs). The Navy is requesting $628.8 million in FY2020 research and development funding for these three UV programs and their enabling technologies. – USNI News

What’s so sweet about sugar cube-sized robots?
(C4ISRNET) If there is anything the future is lacking, it’s robots the size of Chiclets. Draper Labs, working under a grant from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, is creating centimeter-sized robots, for future use in rescue work. The project is named “SHort-Range Independent Microrobotic Platforms,” or “SHRIMP” for short.

IRON MAN SUIT EVOLVING ALONG WITH THE AIR FORCE

5/25/2019

SOCOM’s Iron Man Must Die, So Iron Man Spinoffs Might Live
By Paul McLeary
Special Operations leaders are breaking their “Iron Man” project into its component parts, creating what they see as a “Hyper Enabled Operator.”

The Air Force's Next Quadcopter
By Kelsey Reichmann, C4ISRNET: "The MK-3 GEN4-D1 is part of the InstantEye digital fleet."

Skyborg details revealed
(Defense News) Find out the details on how the Air Force wants to use wingman drones.

V-280 competes agility tests
(Defense News) The Bell V-280 Valor has completed agility tests, completing its primary flight test program.

The next quadcopter the Air Force will order
(C4ISRNET) The Air Force is planning to purchase a new quadcopter drone, known as the InstantEye.

WHAT'S THE NEXT REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS? AND WHAT OF THE ARMY AND THE INDO-PACIFIC

5/1/2019

Horns of a Dilemma: Past and Present – How the Idea of National Security Has Shifted Over Time by Andrew Preston

Three new ship-based weapons being developed by the Navy—solid state lasers (SSLs), the electromagnetic railgun (EMRG), and the gun-launched guided projectile (GLGP), also known as the hypervelocity projectile (HVP)—could substantially improve the ability of Navy surface ships to defend themselves against surface craft, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and eventually anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs). – USNI News

Under Skyborg program, F-35 and F-15EX jets could control drone sidekicks
(Defense News) The F-35 and F-15EX fighter jets could get drone wingmen in the coming years, the U.S. Air Force’s top acquisition official revealed to Defense News.

Pentagon Jumpstarts Hypersonic Targeting, Electronic Warfare, C2
By Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.
Can a new kind of contract get key cutting-edge technologies across the bureaucratic “valley of death” before the Russians and Chinese lap the US?

A Century Of Ideas: Technology, Innovation, And The Future Of The US Economy
via The Hoover Centennial
This session will discuss the historical sources of prosperity in the United States and will look at the drivers of prosperity over the next century. Panelists will also address the ongoing debate about the impact of artificial intelligence and robotics on standards of living and the relevant facts and data to consider.

Decision Maneuver: Next Revolution in Military Affairs
By Bryan Clark, Dan Pratt & Harrison Schramm, Over the Horizon: "U.S. military leaders expressed alarm during Congressional hearings last month about the erosion of American military superiority against great power rivals China and Russia. To arrest the slide, they proposed an expensive “kitchen sink” of potential solutions, including growing the force, buying new weapons, improving training for operators, increasing maintenance, and fielding more autonomous systems."

Net Assessment: The Revolution in Military Affairs – Is Anything Different This Time? by Melanie Marlowe, Bryan McGrath, and Christopher Preble

The Pentagon Has a Defenseless Approach to 5G
By Harold Furchtgott-Roth, RealClearDefense: "America’s enemies will laugh with anticipated victory when they read of Pentagon recommendations for 5G: sharing and operating in a “post-Western” environment."

The Army’s “Multi-Domain Operations in 2028” Is an Important Doctrinal Development
By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: "The Army Chief of Staff, General Mark Milley, framed the challenge that MDO 2028 is intended to address in the most straightforward and easy-to-understand way: “The military problem we face is defeating multiple layers of standoff in all domains in order to maintain the coherence of our operations.”"

Scaling the Levels of War:
The Strategic Major and the Future of Multi-Domain Operations
By Heather Venable & Jared R. Donnelly, War on the Rocks: "In many ways, multi-domain operations represent a more sophisticated conceptualization of joint operations, but it is also context agnostic in that it is not meant to be a response to a specific strategic challenge."

U.S. Army’s Missile Defense Radar Advances Into Prototype Competition
By Jen Judson, Defense News: "The request, posted to the Federal Business Opportunities website on May 14, comes as the Army for well over a decade has struggled to procure a new radar for its integrated air and missile defense system meant to replace the Patriot AMD system."

LTG Wesley: Future Fight Will Be Systems vs. Systems
By Todd South, Army Times: “The future fight, especially in the vast expanse of the Pacific region, will not focus on which units go where and which types of units attack enemy formations. Instead, the deputy commander of the Army’s newest command said, it will be about systems attacking systems."
DARPA's AI-Enabled ‘Breakthrough’ Cyberattack ‘Hunting’ Technology
By Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven: "DARPA and BAE Systems are prototyping a new AI-empowered cybersecurity technology to fight new waves of highly sophisticated cyberattacks specifically engineered to circumvent the best existing defenses."

The U.S. Navy’s Director of Surface Warfare is ready to bet the farm on using lasers to shoot down missiles. The outgoing head of the Chief of Naval Operations’ surface warfare directorate Rear Adm. Ron Boxall said the Navy is going to get its High Energy Laser and Integrated Optical-dazzler with Surveillance system on the Hawaii-based destroyer Preble in 2021, a moment that he compared with Spanish conquistador Hernan Cortez ordering his own ships scuttled to motivate his men. – Defense News

John Schaus writes: Since October, U.S. Army War College researchers have looked into Indo-Pacific theater design at and beyond 2028 on behalf of the Secretary of the Army. Though we have found that U.S. and partner forces have an impressive body of work under way, it is clear that the Army must change across five major elements of design: strategy and operational concepts; forces and capabilities; footprint and presence; authorities, permissions, and agreements; and mission command arrangements. – Defense One

WHY 5G MATTERS FOR A.I., INTELLIGENCE AND MULTI-DOMAIN BATTLE

4/26/2019

If DARPA Has Its Way, AI Will Rule the Wireless Spectrum
By Paul Tilghman, IEEE Spectrum: “DARPA’s Spectrum Collaboration Challenge demonstrates that autonomous radios can manage spectrum better than humans can ."

Scaling the Levels of War: The Strategic Major and the Future of Multi-Domain Operations
by Heather Venable and Jared R. Donnelly

Horns of a Dilemma: Seeing Beyond the Horizon – Intelligence Challenges in a Rapidly Changing World by Susan Gordon and Stephen Slick

How AI Could Change The Art Of War
By Sydney Freedberg, Breaking Defense: "“I’m not talking about killer robots,” said Prof. Andrew Hill, the War College’s first-ever chair of strategic leadership and one of the conference’s lead organizers, at the opening session. The Pentagon wants AI to assist human combatants, not replace them. The issue is what happens once humans start taking military advice — or even orders — from machines."

Five Eyes Must Lead on 5G
By Mike Gallagher & Tom Tugendhat, War on the Rocks: "If the United States and United Kingdom do not lead their partners in the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance and NATO in an effort to secure 5G networks, no one will."

Tactical Risk in Multi-Domain Operations
By Kevin Benson, Modern War Institute: "I believe history does not repeat itself, but as Mark Twain pointed out at times it does rhyme. Once again in my life our Army is reassessing how it will fight large-scale ground combat operations against peer and near-peer adversaries, possibly while outnumbered."

RUSSIA:
Russia’s Sudden Change of Heart on AI
By Dov S. Zakheim, The Hill: "The Russians once again have found they cannot seriously compete with the US or China in an AI arms race."

How To Wage Global Cyber War: Nakasone, Norton, & Deasy
By Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.
The military needs a globe-spanning network to counter threats that no single theater command can cope with. That takes more than just technology.

THOUGHTS ON DOMINANT TRENDS FOR RMA & HOW ARMY DOES TUNNEL WARFARE

4/21/2019

The New Revolution Same As the Old Rhetoric by Morgan Deane

All This ‘Innovation’ Won’t Save the Pentagon
By Zachery Tyson Brown, Defense One: “The Defense Department, a hierarchy fixated on technology, is unequipped to confront a world of disruptive challenges."

DARPA, Army Teaming to Pursue New Swarming Capabilities
By Connie Lee, National Defense Magazine: “The concept involves outfitting about 200 to 300 soldiers with a large number of autonomous platforms that have sensors and kinetic and non-kinetic weapons>"

AFRL Needs Specialized Autonomy Team to Drive Progress
By Rachel S. Cohen, Air Force Magazine: “A new Air Force report suggests elevating a cross-cutting Air Force Research Laboratory team to “prioritize and coordinate” the lab’s entire autonomy portfolio at a crucial moment for development in that area."

The Army wants a way to map underground tunnels using ground robots and drones
(Army Times) The Army’s Rapid Equipping Force is looking to industry for a portable way for soldiers to map remote tunnels using either ground robots or drones, and they want it fast.

The defense community suffered a grave loss on the morning of Tuesday, March 26, with the passing of Andrew W. Marshall at age 97.The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) and the Congressionally mandated 2018 NDS Commission refocused U.S. defense planning on the need to compete with, and potentially fight, China and Russia. Although the latter stressed the urgent need for additional resources for defense, it also acknowledged that bigger budgets would likely prove insufficient to support the national defense strategy. Needed are new ways of war that can bridge the gap between our ends and our means. To date, however, the Pentagon has been silent on the topic of innovative operational concepts: what they should be and who should develop them. The Fiscal 2020 National Defense Authorization Act that Congress is currently considering offers an opportunity to spur needed action in this area.

The U.S. strategic community took a quarter-century respite from thinking seriously about great-power competition and conflict after the end of the Cold War. In the 1990s, it reveled in notions of the "unipolar moment" and the "end of history." Following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, it was consumed with the need to defeat irregular adversaries who lacked the ability to contest U.S. supremacy in any domain of warfare. The need to win the wars we were already fighting took precedence over the responsibility to prepare for the very different wars we might have to fight in the future. In such an environment, the Defense Department embraced, explicitly or implicitly, a series of optimistic strategic assumptions, to include:

The United States will face one adversary at a time;
The United States will be a sanctuary from adversary attack;
The United States will have assured access to critical facilities and locations on allied and partner territory; and
A conflict with China would be a local war confined to a portion of the Western Pacific, would be short, and would have a clear beginning and end.

U.S. force planning relied upon similarly rosy operational assumptions, to include:

The United States and its allies will be able to achieve air superiority operating from land and sea bases;
The United States will enjoy an operational sanctuary in space;
U.S. information networks will remain secure; and
The United States will be able to resupply its forces in the event of a high-intensity war.

The growth of Chinese military power has rendered these assumptions questionable, if not obsolete. Rather, the 2018 National Defense Strategy Commission found that today the United States and its allies face a series of operational challenges:

Protecting critical bases of operations, including the U.S. homeland, forces abroad, and allies and partners;
Rapidly reinforcing and sustaining forces engaged forward;
Assuring information systems in the face of attack and conducting effective information operations;
Projecting and sustaining U.S. forces in distant anti-access or area-denial environments and defeating anti-access and area-denial threats;
Deterring and if necessary defeating the use of nuclear or other strategic weapons in ways that would fall short of justifying a large-scale nuclear response;
Enhancing the capability and survivability of space systems and supporting infrastructure; and
Leveraging information technology and innovative concepts to develop an interoperable, Joint Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance architecture and capability that supports warfare of the future.[i]

Developing innovative operational concepts and fielding new organizations and capabilities to overcome these challenges should become the urgent focus of Defense Department investment. In an era of constrained resources, those concepts and capabilities that offer the greatest strategic and operational leverage should receive preferential funding over those that do not.

The Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Staff should lead the development of joint operational concepts, including efforts both to use existing capabilities in new and innovative ways as well as to craft roles for truly new capabilities. Congress can spark the development of innovative operational concepts by requiring and funding experiments and demonstrations and demanding realistic assessments of them.

Potential innovative programs where the Defense Department can begin these experiments include:

Neutralizing Anti-Access/Area-Denial Threats through Long-Range, Multi-Dimensional Strike. Several subordinate efforts appear particularly promising.

First, the U.S. government purchased two X-47B stealthy unmanned aerial system (UAS) technology demonstrator aircraft before terminating the program. The Defense Department could use the aircraft to develop innovative concepts of operations for stealthy land- and sea-based unmanned systems, to include the value of autonomy in such systems as well as the use of innovative logistical concepts to extend their range.

Second, the Navy is procuring three DDG-1000 Zumwalt class surface vessels. The attributes of these ships, to include their stealth, large displacement, and electric propulsion, make them both unique as surface combatants as well as potentially valuable assets for experimentation. The Defense Department could use the ships to develop concepts of operations for operating within range of an adversary's anti-access/area-denial capabilities. Specifically, they could be used to determine the value of stealthy surface combatants for conducting anti-air, anti-surface, and strike warfare in denied environments.

Third, the Defense Department is currently procuring a new Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM), which should provide a highly capable weapon against enemy ships. However, current plans call for the missile to be carried by three aircraft, the B-1B, F/A-18E/F, and F-35, which will be increasingly challenged to operate in the Western Pacific due to growing threats to aircraft, tankers, and bases in that region. Accordingly, the Defense Department should develop concepts to integrate LRASM onto the B-2 stealth bomber, which has the range and survivability that may be needed to reach Chinese or Russian shipping in defended waters. Should the concept prove successful, LRASM could subsequently be integrated onto the forthcoming B-21 bomber, which should be available in greater numbers than the B-2 for missions such as maritime strike.

Creating Anti-Access/Area Denial Challenges for Competitors. Each of the Services is developing capabilities that could be used to create anti-access challenges for competitors. The Army and Marine Corps are both exploring deploying land-based anti-ship missiles such as LRASM, the Naval Strike Missile, and Maritime Strike Tomahawk; the Navy is modernizing its anti-ship and land-attack capabilities; and, as described above, the Air Force plans to equip some of its aircraft with anti-ship missiles. Deployed in the First and Second Island Chains and fed by ISR and targeting information from UASs such as the MQ-9, such capabilities could reassure allies and deter China from committing aggression. Further experiments and demonstrations could yield innovative operational concepts for linking U.S. and allied forward-based and expeditionary land-based precision strike systems with sea-based munitions and tactical aircraft. Such experiments could yield new concepts for projecting and sustaining forces in A2/AD environments as well as reinforcing and sustaining forward engaged forces.

Protecting Critical Bases of Operations Against Salvo Attacks. The United States should develop innovative operational concepts for defending those bases. Such defenses could include medium-range high-energy lasers (HEL), high-power microwave (HPM) systems, guided projectiles launched by rapid- ring guns, and low-cost surface-to-air missiles. Unmanned and manned aircraft carrying extended- range air-to-air missiles and equipped with wide-area surveillance sensors, HELs, and possibly HPM systems could further extend the range and increase the threat engagement capacity of a base salvo defense complex.[ii]

Establishing Survivable C4ISR Networks. The Defense Department should develop innovative operational concepts and business practices to allow it to develop rapidly new space capabilities and to launch them on relatively short notice. Such an approach could include not just the development of innovative practices, but also relationships with civilian space industry. It should also explore alternatives to space for services such as communications; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; and precision navigation. For example, the Defense Department should experiment with the use of UASs such as the MQ-9 to provide such services in a space-denied environment. Indeed, UASs can provide these capabilities at a much lower cost than launching new satellites. Such initiatives would yield insight into the capabilities needed to enhance the capability and survivability of space systems and the services they provide, as well as new ways to leverage interoperable joint C4ISR in the face of adversary threats.

The development of new concepts and conclusion of experiments are not ends in and of themselves. Too often, military experiments have been side projects that create a façade of innovation without actually having any substantial impact. As a result, the forces and capabilities we have today-and are currently procuring-are out of alignment with the world of 2019 and beyond. The objective of concept development and experimentation must be to inform major shifts in investment and force structure toward the forces and capabilities that can bring the U.S. military back into alignment with the operational challenges it faces.

Thomas G. Mahnken is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and a Senior Research Professor at the Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS. From 2006 to 2009 he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy planning. He is editor of a forthcoming volume on the theory and practice of net assessment.

Notes:
[i] Providing for the Common Defense: the Assessment and Recommendations of the National Defense Strategy Commission (Washington, D.C.: National Defense Strategy Commission, 2018), p. 15.

[ii] Mark Gunzinger and Carl Rehberg, Air and Missile Defense at a Crossroads: New Concepts and Technologies to Defend America's Overseas Bases (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2018).

Image: U.S. Air Force photo by SrA Preston Cherry

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Related publication: PIERCING THE FOG OF PEACE: Developing Innovative Operational Concepts for a New Era, April 2019

WHAT'S "NEW" ABOUT INNOVATION IN R.M.A. & WHAT OF A NUCLEAR RMA? WHAT OF URBAN DEVELOPMENTS IN RMA?

4/17/2019

How AI Could Change The Art Of War
By Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.
Time-honored principles of command get weird when you add the fundamentally alien thinking of an artificial intelligence.

DARPA’s director on how the Pentagon can transition innovation
(C4ISRNET) Pentagon leaders have become increasingly interested in the need for innovation, meaning the new technology that comes from Silicon Valley but also the game-changing advantages that can come from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The New Revolution in Military Affairs
By Christian Brose, Foreign Affairs: “In 1898, a Polish banker and self-taught military expert named Jan Bloch published The Future of War, the culmination of his long obsession with the impact of modern technology on warfare."

Adapting Command and Control for 21st Century Seapower
By Bryan McGrath, CIMSEC: “No element of modern seapower is more worthy of evolution than the operational relationship between the Navy and Marine Corps."

A New Kind of Nuclear War
By Mark Thompson, POGO: "The Pentagon pushes for fission for fighting."

A Different Use for Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Weapons Command and Control by Jaganath Sankaran

INTUITION, THE CITY, AND WAR
(Modern War Institute ) Cities matter. They matter for fighting climate change, for fighting pandemics, and, as the Urban Warfare Project continues to demonstrate, they matter for the future of fighting itself. The heightened importance of urban spaces results from demographic developments, with the global population advancing toward 70 percent living in urban areas by 2050, and from recent trends in terrorism, counterinsurgency and stabilization efforts. Both people and the fight are converging on cities.

THE MULTI-DOMAIN BATTLE FIELD FOR US ARMY, WHY RAYTHEON MATTERS TODAY, HOW THE GREY ZONE OF POLITICAL CYBER WAR IS US WEAK SPOT & CHINESE A.I. ADVANCES

4/3/2019

Army’s Multi-Domain Unit ‘A Game-Changer’ In Future War
But modernizing the Army will take decades and tough decisions about everything from online propaganda to the National Guard.

Raytheon Space & Airborne Systems Rewrites The Rules For Defense Technology
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “Raytheon is that rarest of enterprises, a tech company that has managed to stay at the forefront of innovation for multiple generations."

How the Army will sustain its tactical network of the future
(C4ISRNET) The Army’s sustainment community is beginning to prepare for the challenges associated with the tactical network of the future.

The Army’s sustainment community is beginning to prepare for the challenges associated with the tactical network of the future. The Army is working to field its first capability set for what it is calling the integrated tactical network (ITN). The service’s new approach heavily relies on rapid and ongoing insertion of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) systems. – C4ISRNET

Multi-Domain Networks: The Army, The Allies & AI
Even with Australia, one of our closest allies, it can be hard to share data. And the Army’s future war plans require seamless network coordination with the other US services and foreign allies.

BREAKING DEFENSE

DARPA Picks Three Competitors For Launch Challenge Prize
By Theresa Hitchens, Wednesday, April 10, 2019 6:33 PM
Tucson-based Vector Launch, Virgin Orbit, and a “stealth” startup can compete for prizes up to $10 million in the DARPA Launch Challenge.

Assessing the U.S.-China Artificial Intelligence Competition
By Zachary Kallenborn, Modern War Institute: “Discussions of artificial intelligence are everywhere. Understandably so: AI has a seemingly limitless range applications, from schools to the battlefield. McKinsey & Company estimated that AI is likely to result in $13 trillion of additional global economic activity by 2030. AI also allows the development of autonomous weapons and novel platforms, such as advanced drone swarms. A revanchist Russia might be the scourge of the Western defense community, but Vladimir Putin has arguably issued the clearest articulation of AI’s massive potential: “Whoever becomes the leader in [AI] will become the ruler of the world.” But how do we assess who is leading?"

CHINA'S ACOUSTIC WEAPON AIMED AT US; GRAVE MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT A.I.

3/25/2019

CHINA:
China's Acoustic Cannon
By Bill Gertz, The Washington Times: “U.S. intelligence and security agencies investigating the mysterious sonic attacks against American diplomatic personnel in China need to look no further than China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology."

The Pentagon is 'Absolutely Unapologetic' About Pursuing AI-Powered Weapons
// Jack Corrigan Much criticism of military AI projects is rooted in "grave misperceptions," say current and former defense officials.

The Newest AI-Enabled Weapon: 'Deep-Faking' Photos of the Earth
// Patrick Tucker Worries about deep fakes — machine-manipulated videos of celebrities and world leaders purportedly saying or doing things that they really didn’t — are quaint compared to a new threat: doctored images of the Earth itself.
Read full article »

Solving One of the Hardest Problems of Military AI: Trust
// Luke Hartig and Kendall VanHoose The U.S. Department of Defense is making big bets on artificial intelligence – rolling out new strategies, partnerships, organizations, and budgets to develop the technology for military uses. But as DOD moves to harness this technology, its success may hinge in part on something that is not technical in nature: overcoming the massive gaps in trust around AI. That trust gap is actually many gaps – between humans and machines, the public and the government, the private sector and the government, and among governments – and undertaking the hard task of working through them will be key to integrating AI into national defense.

Without JEDI, Pentagon’s AI efforts may be hindered
(NextGov) DOD won’t be able to fully harness AI unless it manages to build — or buy — a national-defense cloud.

DARPA Wants AI to Learn Language as Human Babies Do
// Jack Corrigan The Pentagon's research wing is funding efforts to build AI language systems that learn more like people and less like machines.

QUANTUM RESISTANT CRYPTOGRAPHY IS HERE & PENTAGON'S CHIEF LOOKS AT FUTURE OF WAR

3/15/2019

CHINA:
China's Space Denial Weapons
By Vinayak Bhat, ThePrint: “China has developed technology like directed energy weapons and electromagnetic pulses that can dazzle, disable or destroy satellites."

The Race for Quantum Resistant Cryptography
By Stew Magnuson, National Defense Magazine: “A little known technological race is occurring in the realm of computer sciences and it could have an enormous impact for those who rely on encrypted communications."

Russia Racing to Complete National AI Strategy by June 15
// Samuel Bendett That's just one of several high-tech deadlines Putin set recently.

Defense Community Slow to Grasp Potential of Quantum-Based Tech
By Stew Magnuson, National Defense Magazine: “Four stories underground — encased in several feet of concrete — is the University of Chicago’s new nanofabrication facility, where researchers apply the principles of quantum physics to real-world problems and technologies."

Lasers, Hypersonics, & AI: Mike Griffin’s Killer Combo By Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., Wednesday, March 20, 2019 1:21 PM

Army debuts missile defense framework in move to counter drones, hypersonic threats
(Defense News) The U.S. Army released its new air and missile defense framework March 27 that aims to pursue multimission units and counter emerging threats like drones and hypersonic missiles, the Army’s Space and Missile Defense Command chief told Defense News in an interview just ahead of the Association of the U.S. Army’s Global Force Symposium.

"ITS ALL BEEN DONE BEFORE", HOW PRESENTISM HURTS INNOVATION IN WAR STRATEGY & WAR GAMING EXERCISES DESTROY FORTRESS US

3/9/2019

US ‘gets its ass handed to it’ in wargames: Here’s a $24 billion fix
(Breaking Defense) The US keeps losing, hard, in simulated wars with Russia and China. Bases burn. Warships sink. But we could fix the problem for about $24 billion a year, one well-connected expert said, less than four percent of the Pentagon budget.

Neophilia, Presentism, & Their Deleterious Consequences
for Western Military Strategy
By Paul Barnes, Modern War Institute: “It is often treated as an assumed truth in Western defense establishments that the world is experiencing a period of political instability unparalleled in over a century. This belief, combined with the observation that technology and its effect on society are advancing at an unprecedented rate, have become key drivers of military transformation."

Ep. 40: Cruise missiles, missile defense and 21st century hybrid war
// Defense One Staff Welcome to our podcast about the news, strategy, tech, and business trends defining the future of national security.

US ‘Loyal Wingman’ Takes Flight: AFRL & Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie
By Colin Clark, Thursday, March 7, 2019 4:27 PM
A single F-35 could have a flock of “loyal wingman” drones to carry weapons, jam radars, and if need be take a hit and die to save their human commander.

Introducing Skyborg, your new AI wingman
(C4ISRNET) “You can be my wingman anytime.” In the future, Iceman of “Top Gun” could be saying those words to an artificial intelligence version of Maverick instead of a flesh-and-blood aviator played by Tom Cruise.

Did RAND get it right in its war game exercise?
(Asia Times) The RAND Corporation with Pentagon support has carried out a war game simulation in which the United States loses to both Russia and China. The US and NATO are unable to stop an attack in the Balkans by the Russians, and the United States and its allies are unable to prevent the takeover of Taiwan by China.

CHINA SEEKS TO WIN A.I. WARS, WHY THE LESSONS OF CAUDINE FORKS MATTERS & THE LIMITS TO ARTIFICIAL INTEL IN WAR WITH DARPA'S BREAKTHROUGH

3/2/2019

HOW TO BAN LETHAL A.I.

Don’t call it an ‘arms race’: US-China AI competition is not winner-takes-all
(Defense One) The most common framing of the two countries’ artificial-intelligence development is dangerous.

Beware the Lesson of the Caudine Forks
By Brandon Quintin, Small Wars Journal: “There are certain events in military history that rise above the rest. They are not merely battles, campaigns, or wars. They teach more than the specifics of military science."

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DARPA's New AI, Machine Learning 'Breakthrough'
By Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven: “A DARPA-led “Lifelong Learning Machines” (L2M) program, intended to massively improve real-time AI and machine learning, rests upon the fundamental premise that certain machine-learning-capable systems might struggle to identify, integrate and organize some kinds of new or complicated yet-to-be-seen information.”

Autonomous Weapons and Decision Support Systems
By C. Anthony Pfaff, Strategy Bridge: “ ... several organizations and researchers working in artificial intelligence have signed a “Lethal Autonomous Weapons Pledge” that expressly prohibits development of machines that can decide to take a human life."

Inside DARPA’s Ambitious ‘AI Next’ Program
By Jack Corrigan, Defense One: “The defense research agency seeks artificial intelligence tools capable of human-like communication and logical reasoning that far surpass today’s tech."

Building Modern Screw-Sloops? Strategic Choices about Artificial Intelligence in Defense by Nina Kollars and Doyle Hodges

China steps up efforts to develop military tech to challenge US
(South China Morning Post) China is stepping up its efforts to develop new weaponry ranging from guns to fighter jets to challenge US dominance, according to Chinese military officials.

THE BEST WAYS TO GUIDE AGAINST CHINESE CYBER; STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS DURING WAR & WHAT IS QUANTUM SCIENCE

2/12/2019

Artificial Intelligence: Will Special Operators Lead The Way?

Artificial Intelligence: Are We Losing The Race?

Four principles to guide the US response to cyberattacks
(Fifth Domain) Cyber weapons have allowed Russia to reinvent deterrence on the cheap. Recent reports reveal a prolonged, systematic, and not particularly subtle Russian campaign to infiltrate the U.S. power grid.

Quantum Science: Distruptive National Security Technology
By Klon Kitchen, The Washington Times: “We are also developing quantum sensors designed to detect stealth aircraft solely by the atmospheric disturbance they create in flying."

Cyber Deterrence Done Right: The Coordinated Actions Against Huawei
By marshalling the collective power of its allies, the U.S. may have finally found a model for imposing costs on cyber adversaries.
Annie Fixler | CCTI Deputy Director

The benefits of strategic communications and warfare
Trump’s State of the Union was a personal best but with one Obamanian slip.
Clifford D. May | Founder & President

CHINA, :
PLA Concepts for 'Intelligent Operations'
By Brent M. Eastwood, China Brief: “Most of China’s current AI military research is focused on hardware—such as robotic tanks and vehicles, autonomous drones, and remotely-piloted submarines. These pursuits are heavy on mechanical engineering and traditional research and development. They also fit within a broader pattern that has been noted by PLA scholars for the past two decades: the development of advanced weapons and military technologies as part of the “assassin’s mace” concept, in which the PLA will seek to conduct crippling asymmetric blows against potential opponents."

TRAINING OVER CROSS DOMAINS: CENTER FOR BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS REVEALS STUDY & A LOOK AT HOW CHINA USES A.I & THE ARMY USES ELECTRONIC WARFARE

1/29/2019

Swarms of Soldiers on the Future Battlefield
By Justin Lynch, Modern War Insitute: “Combat forces’ movement has evolved throughout history—from melee to mass to the maneuver concepts that are enshrined in contemporary modern military doctrine."

China's Rapid AI Development Has Its Limits: Report
// Paulina Glass Chinese artificial-intelligence researchers are aware of ways their work lags the United States' — and Beijing is working to fix those.

All Services Sign On To Data Sharing – But Not To Multi-Domain

Attacking Artificial Intelligence: How To Trick The Enemy
By Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., Wednesday, February 6, 2019 5:37 PM
“Autonomy may look like an Achilles’ heel, and in a lot of ways it is” – but for both sides, DTRA’s Nick Wager said. “I think that’s as much opportunity as that is vulnerability. We are good at this… and we can be better than the threat.”

CHINA:
China Developing Battlefield AI
By Bill Gertz, The Washington Times: “A Chinese military newspaper has outlined how the People’s Liberation Army plans to deploy artificial intelligence (AI) for its forces in future high-technology warfare."

How Will the Army Use Electronic Warfare?
By Mark Pomerleau, C4ISRNET: "According to the annual report from the director of operational test and evaluation, the Army's current publications don't clearly help units refine their “tactics, techniques, and procedures” or for organizing and using electronic warfare on the battlefield."

The Pentagon’s First AI Strategy Will Focus on Near-term Operations
By Patrick Tucker, Defense One: “The Defense Department will unveil a new artificial intelligence strategy perhaps as early as this week, senior defense officials told Defense One. The strategy — its first ever — will emphasize the creation and tailoring of tools for specific commands and service branches, allowing them to move into AI operations sooner rather than later."

Why the Army wanted a Combat Capabilities Development Command
(C4ISRNET) The Army wants to better understand the emerging technology scene and learn how to purchase the right equipment to stay ahead of nations such as Russia and China.

BREAKING DEFENSE: CLOUD COMPUTING AND WAR

3 ways the Pentagon could improve cyber intelligence
(Fifth Domain) The United States needs to expand its cyber intelligence authorities and capabilities to meet the Trump administration’s new cybersecurity strategy, according to top current and former government officials and academics.

The Rift Between Silicon Valley and the Pentagon Is Economic, Not Moral by Rachel Olney

Training for Tomorrow's Battlefields
by Jennifer McArdle

Today's U.S. military is an information-dependent force, one that is wholly reliant on information communication technology (ICT) for current and future military operations. The adaptation and integration of ICTs into weapons platforms, military systems, and concepts of operation has put the battle for information control at the heart of military affairs. Although the use of ICT exponentially increases the lethality of the U.S. military, the dependence on these technologies is, in many ways, also a vulnerability. U.S. competitors plan to employ a range of cyber and informationized capabilities to undermine the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of U.S. and allied information.

It is impossible to deny an adversary's ability to shape aspects of the information environment, to include spoofing and sabotaging ICT-based warfighting systems. The U.S. military's goal should instead be to sustain military operations in spite of a denied, disrupted, or subverted information environment. This requires a paradigm shift away from information assurance to mission assurance. U.S. warfighters should be trained to fight in and through an increasingly contested and complex battlespace saturated by adversary cyber and information operations. This report engages in a detailed analysis of current and future cyber and informationized training for the non-cyber warfighter. It provides initial recommendations as to how training systems, scenarios, models, and simulations can evolve to better reflect the complexities of a rapidly changing information-rich combat environment.

Victory Over And Across Domains can be downloaded here

FULL TEXT HERE

victory_over_and_across_domains.pdf
File Size:	1864 kb
File Type:	pdf

WHAT THE BATTLESHIP TEACHES NAVY ABOUT AI, AUTONOMY & CHINESE CONTAINMENT

1/24/2019

Navy Considering More Advanced Arleigh-Burke Destroyers
By Megan Eckstein, USNI News: “The Navy is looking at “something beyond even a Flight III” combat capability for its new-build destroyers, as its plans for transitioning from building the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer to the future Large Surface Combatant continue to evolve and the LSC procurement date continues to slide."

Technological Identity and Autonomous Systems: Lessons from the Battleship by Steven Hallgren

Without a clearer ethics policy, the US could lose the military tech battle with China
(C4ISRNET) Nearly three decades after the Cold War ended, a new strategy of containment is underway at the Pentagon.

Maxar’s Exit From DARPA Satellite Servicing Program a Cautionary Tale
By Sandra Erwin, SpaceNews: " Former RSGS program manager Gordon Roesler: ”The RSGS capability is so revolutionary, the nation really needs to find a way to get it on orbit.""

WHY SOLDIERS CARRY SO MUCH: A ROBOTIC LOAD CALLED INFANTRY & C4ISRNET MOST READ ARTICLES IN 2018

12/30/2018

DARPA Program Blending Robots Into Infantry Squads
By Todd South, Marine Corps Times: “Here’s a worrying bit of news: America’s best ally in the war against the Islamic State, Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), is nearly broke.”

The Overloaded Soldier: Why Troops Carry So Much Weight
By David Hambling, Popular Mechanics: “Over the last decade, hyped technologies such as robotic mules and wearable exoskeletons promised to free up soldiers from hauling so much gear. Instead, the demands of the modern battlefield only increased the load. This is one problem which technology alone may not be able to solve.”

C4ISRNET’s 5 most-read stories of the year
(C4ISRNET) With a new national defense strategy that focuses a move away from counterterrorism and an emphasis on China and Russia, it’s not surprising that Russia was the subject of two of our most-read stories this year. After all, a different type of conflict requires a rethinking of the technology necessary to win those battles.

The Army is looking for a few good robots. Not to fight — not yet, at least — but to help the men and women who do. These robots aren’t taking up arms, but the companies making them have waged a different kind of battle. At stake is a contract worth almost half a billion dollars for 3,000 backpack-sized robots that can defuse bombs and scout enemy positions. – Associated Press

The agency that invented stealth technology, the internet, and the M16 has its sights focused on enhancing how the infantry squad works on the battlefield with robots, and advanced targeting and sensing gear. – Military Times

EMITTER SYSTEMS TO DEFEAT AREA DENIAL SYSTEMS

12/23/2018

Air Force Buying More Joint Threat Emitters to Counter Air Defenses
By Joseph Trevithick & Tyler Rogoway, The WarZone: "“Our Joint Threat Emitter systems enable aircrews to train in environments that match actual combat situations.”

Is the AI Bubble about to Burst?
Richard Walker, CapX

A GRIM FUTURE CALLED URBAN WAR

12/12/2018

Why a One-Size-Fits-All Approach to Urban Ops Won't Work
By John Spencer, Modern War Institute: "If we are entering an era where military forces will increasingly be called upon to operate in cities (and we are), it follows logically that the Army should begin preparing for urban terrain."

The Grim Future of Urban Warfare
By Darron Anderson, The Atlantic: “War is always bad, but it’s going to become much worse.”

Technology Is Making Warfare in Cities Even Deadlier
// Darran Anderson
From airports to undergrounds, new weapons and brutal tactics will make things worse for urban dwellers.

The destructive age of urban warfare; or, how to kill a city and how to protect it
(Modern War Institute) Combat in urban areas is the most destructive type of warfare imaginable.

Urban Legend: Is Combat in Cities Really Inevitable?
By David Johnson, War on the Rocks: "Future combat will take place in dense urban areas and likely in megacities, or so we are told. These are the new “truths” that are taking hold in the U.S. military."

SWARMS & ELECTRONIC WAR

12/9/2018

4. Watch a swarm of 300 robots reorganize autonomously
(C4ISRNET) Against the white void, the assembled robots look like nothing so much as ball bearings with Christmas lights on.

Are robot swarms the future of destroying sea mines?
(C4ISRNET) A sea mine is a promise of tragedy in the future. Built for the immediate demands of a naval conflict, deployed for some once-pressing strategic end, and now left in place for decades, sea mines are an enduring risk. Clearing the sea from the dangerous refuse of the past can be a high-stakes proposition. Why not, then, let robots do it?

GENETICALLY ENGINEERED LIFE FORMS DETECTING ENEMY SUBS & DARPA TRIES BIOTECH FOR WAR WOUNDS

12/7/2018

The US Military Is Genetically Engineering New Life Forms To Detect Enemy Subs
The Pentagon is also looking at living camouflage, self-healing paint, and a variety of other applications of engineered organisms, but the basic science remains a challenge.
PATRICK TUCKER

Neurons Make the Robot, NRL Says
By Kimberly Underwood, Signal Magazine: “Autonomous capabilities have advanced, especially in the last 10 years, but robots still have a hard time performing ad hoc motions, particularly manipulative movements using a robotic arm or hand, says Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) roboticist Glen Henshaw."

DARPA Is Trying Bioelectric Implants to Help Heal Wounds
// Frank Konkel
One of the Pentagon's new research programs could see biosensors, actuators and even artificial intelligence implanted in soldiers to speed up the body's healing processes.

DEATH OF PRECISION WARFARE, BIOTECH/ROBOTICS ON THE BATTLEFIELD & A RECORD OF STRATEGIC THOUGHT FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

11/27/2018

The Death of Precision in Warfare? by Paul Barnes and Alexandra Stickings

Biotechnology for the Battlefield: In Need of a Strategy by Diane DiEuliis

‘A Record of Exploded Ideas’: History and Strategic Commentary in the 21st Century by David Morgan-Owen

Artificial Intelligence: Forget The Terminator For Future Army: LTG Wesley

High-Energy Laser Systems and the Future of Warfare
By Jason Sattler, Strategy Bridge: “ The first exploration into the different possibilities for weaponized lasers began in the 1990s, which culminated in a major study published by the Defense Science Board Task Force in 2001."

Forget The Terminator: Robotics For Logistics 1st, Combat 2nd
(Breaking Defense) Don’t think about the Terminator or Iron Man: Think about Sigourney Weaver’s power loader lifting crates in Aliens.

SWARMS VS. GPS

11/23/2018

DARPA tests autonomous drone swarms against communications and GPS jamming
(UPI) DARPA has conducted a demonstration test series at Yuma Proving Ground, Ariz., showcasing its Collaborative Operations in Denied Environment program for autonomous drone operations in the face of enemy jamming and area-denial efforts.

Project Maven Overseer Will Lead Pentagon's New AI Center
// Patrick Tucker
DOD rewards three-star with the lead on its new AI-development center.

THE FUTURE OF WAR: URBAN & CHINA USES AFRICA AND WEST ASIA FOR ITS OWN PROJECT MAVEN

10/31/2018

Cities pose huge challenges to military forces. The biggest might be just crossing the street.
(Modern War Institute at West Point) Many of the challenges of urban warfare are not new; nor, unfortunately, are the options soldiers have to confront these challenges. The U.S. Army has a long history of fighting in cities and its tactics, techniques, and procedures have been refined mostly from the hard lessons of World War II and the evolution of close-quarters combat that occurred following the failed 1972 rescue attempt during the Munich Olympics.

China is Exporting its Cyber Surveillance to African Countries
// Abdi Latif Dahir
Beijing has trained African officials on its sprawling system of censorship and surveillance.

Amy K. Lehr writes: The surveillance state in Xinjiang demonstrates the dark side of surveillance equipment, big data, and AI. It also indicates the speed at which China is developing and commercializing AI. China has a competitive advantage in this space because Chinese companies have access to a massive pool of data on which to train AI and fewer privacy laws to obey. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

DARPA, AI: THE PENTAGONS WISH TO TRAIN A SOLDIERS BRAIN & THE 3 C'S OF CYBER

10/15/2018

DARPA Wants Soldiers to Control Machines With Their Minds
By Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics: "DARPA is working on technology to read and write to the human brain. The focus isn't on mind control but rather machine control, allowing the human brain to directly send instructions to machines."

The Pentagon's Push to Program Soldiers' Brains
// Michael Joseph Gross
DARPA's developing capabilities still hover at or near a proof-of-concept stage. But that's close enough to have drawn investment from some of the world's richest corporations.

(Commentary) Quantum computing must be a national security priority
(Scientific American) For much of the last 70 years, the national security of the United States and its allies was in large part due to the technological superiority of their public and private sectors. Today, however, the future of that technological leadership is in doubt as nation-state rivals such as China are pursuing leadership positions in a next generation of technologies likely to redefine the geopolitical power structure.

The three C’s of cyber
(Fifth Domain) The U.S. elections systems are not the only form of critical infrastructure at risk from cyberattack. From the national power grid to our transportation and agricultural systems, a host of systems and networks must be secured and protected.

DARPA, Army Test Optionally Manned Helicopter (It’s Not A.I.)

DARPA’s Experimental Constellation
By Caleb Henry, SpaceNews: “The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has awarded satellite operator Telesat a contract to study the use of commercial buses in the agency’s experimental low-Earth-orbit constellation program known as Blackjack.”