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Thought leadership
foreign affairs    macro-trends    threat assessment 
  GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA 
NORTH AMERICA     

THE FRENCH PERMANENT REVOLUTION

6/28/2016

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City Journal - Manhattan Institute
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federal privatization & reform movement

6/28/2016

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CATO
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fragile states index

6/28/2016

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Foreign Policy Magazine
“Toward Regional Cooperation: The Internal Security Dimension” (Querine Hanlon, Middle East Institute)

“In the MENA region, the prospects for regional cooperation have been further complicated by the events of the Arab Spring. Prior to the Arab Spring, the region’s security forces cooperated, mostly in a bilateral fashion, to counter threats to their regimes and to repress internal dissent. For example, although there were important tensions among Tunis, Algiers, Tripoli, and Cairo, there was also a surprising degree of coordination among internal security forces along their shared borders, including coordinated operations and intelligence sharing. Even across the closed border between Morocco and Algeria, security forces engaged in limited cooperation to repatriate wayward shepherds or to counter smugglers. This cooperation was largely founded on shared interests -- among which regime protection and even survival were among the most important. But in the aftermath of the collapse and overthrow of the regimes in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, this cooperation largely ceased -- not only because those shared interests had disappeared, but also because, in the case of Libya, there was no regime to cooperate with. As one senior border security officer in Tunisia explained, ‘On the border with Libya, we are doing the work of two. We have no counterpart across the border.’”
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kurds drove turkey toward appeasement 

6/28/2016

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“How the Kurds Drove Turkey Back to Israel (and Two Other Reasons for the Deal)” (Steven A. Cook, Defense One)

“There are three reasons why the Turks wanted the deal now more than ever. First, the Israelis have a lot of natural gas and Cyprus has a lot of natural gas. There have been signals all year that negotiations to find a solution to the Cyprus problem and reunify the island are promising. It seems that the deal with Israel is connected to the coming gas bonanza in the Eastern Mediterranean. Second, Ankara’s approach to the Middle East has been an utter failure. Its bid to lead the Middle East after the Arab uprisings was based more on the self-reinforcing myths that AKP elites told themselves than their actual ability to drive events in the region. There was also little chance that Saudis, Egyptians, and Emiratis were going to allow the Turks to play the role they sought. Between the summer of 2013 and rather recently, Ankara had bad relations with Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Cairo, Jerusalem, and Baghdad -- in other words, all the major capitals in the region. When Erdogan forced Davutoglu from the prime ministry on May 5, Davutoglu could be made the fall guy for Turkey’s regional isolation with few, if any, political consequences for the president. This is not entirely a stretch; Davutoglu was the architect of Turkey’s grandiose ambitions in the Middle East as an advisor and then foreign minister during the last five years of Erdogan’s tenure as prime minister. Then again, it is not like Erdogan did not embrace the idea of Turkey’s (and thus his own) leadership of the Middle East. The third reason is Syria. This is the failure within the failure of Ankara’s entire bid for leadership in the region.”
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What google trends portends

6/27/2016

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Wash. Post
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hard power & Military readiness:  assessing regional allies, free e-book

6/27/2016

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AEI
AEI:  Military Readiness
NATO Defense Spending - Foreign Policy Initiative 
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FPI:  Bilateral relations, Decline, Brexit & Thatcher 

6/27/2016

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Novel Political Geography of the Brexit - Michael Barone
FPI
The New York SUN, Thatcher & Brexit
AEI, Desmond Lachman:  The Decline of England Post Brexit
An Economist View on Brexit & Immediate Consequences
AEI:  Worst Case Scenario for England Post Brexit
PIIE:  Intel on Timetable for Real Exit 
City Journal:  Waterloo Sunrise
Lawrence Summers:  Why London Won
How Berlin Views London Post Brexit
Former Ambassador John Bolton on Why Brexit is Good
The NY SUN:  Thatcher's View of the European Union
John B. Taylor CNBC on Brexit
Forbes:  Why the Brexit Will NOT Hurt
Project Syndicate:  Why Brexit Will Be Good for England
FPI:  Conference Call on Brexit
  • Tory leadership race: Johnson out, May and Gove in
Jim Talent writes: For almost five hundred years, Great Britain has exercised an influence on global events disproportionate to its size.  It did so again last Thursday.  The decision to Leave was what Churchill might have called a “decisive intervention” in the course of events, and not just in the United Kingdom.  Once again, the British lion has in defiance roared.  The path ahead contains many uncertainties, to be sure, but it’s not like the European Union, even before the referendum, was an ocean of stability either; and the British now can at least be confident that they have regained control over the path their country will take. – National Review Online
 
Robert Delahunty and John Yoo write: The qualities most needed in the post-Brexit world are courage and imagination. Existing institutions and practices such as the EU have failed or are failing. The answer is not to try, out of fear and desperation, to prop them up. The answer is to learn from their failure and to create something better. Brexit has not put peace and prosperity at risk. It has opened up possibilities for renewal. – National Review Online
Post Brexit Analysis
E.U. leaders gathered Wednesday without Britain for the first time in four decades amid divisions about how tough to treat the departing country and how to avoid a further crack up of the union. – Washington Post
 
Deeply shaken by Britain’s vote to quit the European Union, the bloc’s leaders met on Tuesday to confront their most urgent conundrum: How to calm the crisis in the hope that it fades away, while making the British decision so painful that no other country follows. – New York Times
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sharia & the fallacy of historicism

6/27/2016

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Wash. Post:  Sharia Law Historically Contrived
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5 immediate geopolitical concerns for london

6/27/2016

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AEI
AEI:  Analysis, Research on Brexit & Geopolitical Interests
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U.K. labor is bleeding post brexit

6/27/2016

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Following Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, senior members of the Labour Party are revolting against the leadership of party head Jeremy Corbyn, who they accuse of bungling the country’s historic referendum on EU membership.

In the run-up to the so-called Brexit vote, observers questioned whether the Labour Party’s pro-EU position would signal to constituents a loss of domestic political power.

The party’s upheaval began on Sunday, when Corbyn dismissed his shadow government foreign secretary, who he suspected of plotting an internal coup. This sparked a series of walkouts, with 11 members of the shadow cabinet, an alternative cabinet to the governing party that doesn't have legal power, resigning on Sunday, including the secretaries for health, education, voter registration, and environment.

Most of those who resigned criticized Corbyn's handling of the EU referendum and expressed a lack of confidence in his leadership. In a meeting on Monday, deputy Labour leader Tom Watson told Corbyn he has “no authority” among party loyalists in the parliament.
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Labour MPs are set to discuss a motion of no confidence in Corbyn.
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the e.u. responds

6/27/2016

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European Union
 
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will head to Brussels and London Monday for consultations on the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union as the U.S. tries to contain the fallout from the surprise vote. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
American officials struggling to reimagine their strategy after Britain’s decision to divorce the European Union say the most urgent challenge will be to find a way to replace their most reliable, sympathetic partner in the hallways of European capitals. It will not be easy. – New York Times
 
Britain’s decision to leave the European Union could make it more difficult to maintain transatlantic agreement on sanctions on Russia over Ukraine, and distract Britain and the E.U. from other pressing foreign policy issues as they disentangle their ties, analysts said Friday. – Washington Post
 
Britain’s historic vote to leave the European Union plunges the 28-nation bloc into an existential crisis, dealing the dream of an integrated Europe its greatest blow since the march toward unity began in the aftermath of World War II. – Washington Post
 
The vote in Britain to leave the European Union lays bare the most dangerous obstacle confronting the world’s most ambitious economic and political bloc: the voice of the European people. – Washington Post
 
As the European Union absorbs the U.K.’s decision to leave the bloc, some member states are already gearing up for a contest they had hoped to avoid: luring two EU agencies that will have to leave their London headquarters. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Britain will face a determined and defensive eastern Europe in negotiations to exit the EU, as countries such as Poland and Slovakia prepare to dig in over the rights of European migrants in the UK. – Financial Times
 
Europe’s first security strategy in more than a decade is to push for closer EU defence co-operation, paving the way for multinational headquarters, military procurement and deployments to help cope with “times of existential crisis”. – Financial Times
 
Ivo Daalder writes: Europe needs to maintain open borders internally, and retain a single market for economic activity — even with the UK no longer a formal member of the EU. Nato needs to be strengthened to address growing threats from the East and South. The European project must continue to evolve. And America must once again stand at the centre of Europe to help make all this possible. This is indeed a defining moment for Europe — and for America. – Financial Times
 
Guy Verhofstadt writes: We should not be held back by the past and we must start building a strong European defense force and a united foreign policy. One that the United States can rely on instead of one that needs a chaperone. It does not lie in our European nature to see opportunities in a crisis, but that is exactly what we should be doing now. – Los Angeles Times
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political fallout:  brexit

6/27/2016

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The New York SUN
The political fallout from Britain’s stunning decision to leave the European Union sharply escalated Sunday, with debate growing inside the governing Conservative Party over choosing a successor to Prime Minister David Cameron and a coup attempt emerging against the leader of the opposition Labour Party. – Washington Post
 
With British politics in chaos, the country’s leaders stalled for time Monday to get their own house in order before triggering negotiations to leave the European Union, a point from which there will be no turning back. But pressure was coming on various fronts. – Washington Post
 
For centuries, this modest little island in the North Sea has punched well above its weight on the international stage…But now that Britain has stunned the world with its decision to exit the European Union, experts say it will be focused inward for the foreseeable future. – Washington Post
 
Britain’s historic vote to leave the European Union is already threatening to unravel a democratic bloc of nations that has coexisted peacefully together for decades. But it is also generating uncertainty about an even bigger issue: Is the post-1945 order imposed on the world by the United States and its allies unraveling, too? – New York Times
 
Defense Secretary Ashton Carter and British Defense Minister Michael Fallon discussed the potential national security fallout from the United Kingdom’s vote to separate from the European Union, hours after the polls closed in the nonbinding referendum. – Washington Times
 
Reeling from Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, politicians here are already suggesting another attempt at breaking away from the rest of the U.K. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Britain plunged into the unknown last night when voters opted to take the country out of the European Union, leaving analysts and officials to wonder what the decision means for the defense sector. – Defense News
 
Britain’s decision to break with the European Union could pose unintended security problems for NATO, including the alliance’s nuclear posture, if pro-EU Scotland launches a new push for independence. – Stars and Stripes
 
As one special relationship falters, another may beckon. The British vote to leave the EU could hasten a changing of the guard among Washington’s European allies, with Germany replacing the UK as its most important partner. – Financial Times
 
The Scots do not think there should be a second independence referendum, a poll showed on Sunday, days after Britain voted to leave the European Union despite strong Scottish support for remaining a member of the bloc. - Reuters
 
ICYMI: FPI strongly believes in the “Special Relationship” between the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as the transatlantic alliance between America and Europe.  FPI believes that the following resources will make clear how the United States, United Kingdom, and Europe can reinvigorate relations and cooperate on security, trade, and a shared liberal democratic vision of international affairs. – Foreign Policy Initiative
 
Editorial: The Brexit vote has produced a weekend of handwringing, especially from progressives who find democratic uprisings too messy for their tastes. But now that it has happened, the goal should be to seize this moment for reform and rejuvenation. The U.S. can help by reasserting the commitment to Europe it has too often abandoned during the last eight years. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Editorial: The sooner Britain can renegotiate deals with major partners outside Europe, the likelier EU leaders will be to do the same, rather than try to punish Brits for choosing divorce. The most important partner in this regard is the U.S., which should signal immediately that President Obama won’t follow through on his threat to send Britain to the “back of the queue” on trade. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Editorial: If the Labour Party now ousts Mr. Corbyn, it will be a sign that voters have realized that a return of sovereignty to London from Brussels will require more than nostalgic, anti-Western socialism. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Editorial: We’ll know in time whether the British made the right choice with their decision Thursday. But they were well served by the Prime Minister who made that vote possible. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Toby Young writes: So can Boris do it? I think he can. He was a contemporary of mine at Oxford and I echo the sentiments of another contemporary, journalist Lloyd Evans, who told Mr. Johnson’s biographer: “He’s a war leader. He is one of the two or three most extraordinary people I’ve ever met. You just feel he’s going somewhere. People just love him. They go along with him and they enjoy being led.” – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Elliott Abrams writes: [Britons] invented modern democracy and representative institutions. Their nationalism never caused a world war; instead, it fueled the effort to save freedom in Europe. They’ve just reminded their political elites that they love their country and their institutions, not Brussels. They fought and died for England, so why be ruled by Brussels? It’s a lesson about love of country and culture that American elites should absorb, and fast. – National Review Online
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muslim dissidents, best u.s. ally

6/14/2016

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Gatestone Institute
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chaos, liberty & the middle east

6/13/2016

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John McLaughlin writes: Along with a history marked by intervention from external powers, the Middle East is now confronting conflicts which combine political, ethnic and religious dimensions.  The United States cannot withdraw its leadership in the area. Aside from the Syrian question, the next American administration will have to redefine the network of partnerships and alliances in the region and grapple with a multitude of problems, none of which have simple solutions - Politique Etrangere (PDF)
 
Captain Jerry Hendrix, USN (Ret.) writes: Actions must be taken to return to an equilibrium that attempts to maintain the United States’ leading position in the world while not undermining its essential role of supporting individual liberty and national self-determination. Conservatives have a leading role to play, but they must first seek to reestablish a connection with their intellectual base and differentiate themselves from the foreign and defense policies that have wrecked such havoc on the nation and the international system over the past generation – The National Interest
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modi's gains after u.s. meeting impressive

6/13/2016

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[W]hile two US lawmakers introduced legislation June 8 in the House of Representatives to designate India as a Special Global Partner of America, analysts here are unsure about the new stance toward Washington, which marks a paradigm shift in India's foreign and defense policy. – Defense News
 
India is rejoicing over news that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has brokered deals with U.S. officials to bring New Delhi closer to its long-held dream of joining an elite group of nations allowed to control the global trade in nuclear materials, equipment and technology. – Associated Press
 
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has notched up gains in elections to India's upper house of parliament, and is seeking to drive home the advantage when his nationalist ruling party meets to devise a strategy to win India's biggest state. - Reuters
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premodern islamic law/jurisprudence & modernity

6/8/2016

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Shadi Hamid writes: How could Islamic law, designed for a pre-modern era, remain relevant in a time where subjects became citizens and when religious allegiances were to be replaced with national loyalties? This is a question that hasn’t found an answer, at least not yet. – The Atlantic
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Islam & Polygamy

6/6/2016

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Gatestone Institute
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the ethics of power

6/6/2016

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Project Syndicate Article
Donald 'The Destroyer'
Confronting the Challenges to Democracy
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limits to oil rebounding

6/6/2016

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Project Syndicate
Confronting the Global Threat to Democracy
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india & U.s. bilateral relations

6/6/2016

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Wash. Post:  Arrival of Modi
AEI:  India, The Paranoid Style of Indian Politics
Wash. Post
India participates in more military exercises with the United States than with any other country, and the two are close to signing an agreement that would allow refueling and repair of vehicles at each other’s bases — a controversial proposal that has been under discussion for more than a decade. Yet Harris’s misfire shows that overcoming years of mistrust — during the Cold War and over U.S. support of Pakistan — will take time. – Washington Post
 
There are few relationships between President Obama and another world leader more unlikely than the one he has with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India. The two have a public warmth — or “chemistry,” as the Indian news media like to describe it — and that is likely to be on display Tuesday when Mr. Modi visits the White House for the second time in two years. It will be the seventh time the two leaders will have met. – New York Times
 
When Indian prime minister Narendra Modi addresses a joint session of Congress on Wednesday, he will find a warm reception from lawmakers — something nearly unthinkable 15 years ago, when India still proudly existed as a non-allied state with the US. – Defense News
 
New Delhi is looking to the US to help overcome resistance from China — which vies with India's neighbour Pakistan as its key regional rival — and several others with strong anti-nuclear weapons policies, to shepherd India into the [Nuclear Suppliers Group] – Financial Times
 
Nicholas Burns writes: Our strengthening partnership with India is a striking success. It has been built by the internationalist center in both parties that can still unite them on important foreign policy issues. The next U.S. president will have the opportunity to work with Republicans and Democrats in writing the next chapter with India. She should take it – Washington Post
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Germany's growing external account

6/6/2016

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e21
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arab spring infographic

6/2/2016

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dr. michael pettis:  optimal chinese investment

6/2/2016

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Dr. Michael Pettis Blog
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islamic art, modernity & the long war

6/2/2016

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“The Arab City” (Amale Andraos, Places Journal)

“So, if the global practices are creating exemplary architecture for the emerging cities of the Gulf, what then is the problem? One problem is that the mélange of symbols and metaphors -- the medina, the oasis, the souk -- all too often produces reductive meanings and experiences; it can encourage, albeit unintentionally, the sort of essentialism which, as Edward Said so eloquently argued, is not only offensive in its representations but also instrumental in perpetuating forms of colonialism. An even deeper problem is that the new architecture is too often rooted in pan-Islamic tendencies that blur the distinctions and complexities of situated art and architectural practices. Is it really appropriate, or ‘contextual,’ to use architectural innovations developed in 16th-century Istanbul, during the era when Sinan was chief architect of the Ottoman Empire, and adapt them to the desert cities of Doha or Abu Dhabi, as if these innovations belong to some singular tradition of Islamic architecture, no matter the differences of place and time, politics and economics, technological sophistication and material advancement? All too often an idea of ‘Islamic architecture’ is promoted in an effort to unify a region that extends from Turkey to Syria to Iraq to the Emirates -- to advance the strange concept of a cohesive Islamic people, nation, empire. The predictable result is cultural displacement; and arguably even the dystopia of ISIS, which deploys a crudely generalized concept of a mythic Islamic empire -- a worldwide caliphate -- in an effort to legitimize its brutal tactics. Unsurprisingly, these tactics include the destruction of ancient monuments seen as ‘hybrid’ or impure.”
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u.s. foreign policy options for "the long war"

6/1/2016

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AEI 'Critical Threats Project & Institute for the Study of War
1 Page Document Review
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    IN DEFENSE OF US GENERALS
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    WHEN GENERALS FAIL
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    ARAB SPRING & POLITICAL REFORM
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    Introduction to Eric Hoffer's Classic "The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements".

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    ISLAM & DANTE
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    FEMINISM: HOW WOMEN BETRAYED WOMEN

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    RESOLVING WORLD DISORDER

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    POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR MIDDLE EAST

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    HOW ISRAEL WINS

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    THE TREASON OF INTELLECTUALS: JULIEN BENDA

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    HAYEK & THE INTELLECTUALS

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    US STRATEGY FOR WINNING WORLD WAR IV

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    POLICY PAPERS FOR US GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT

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    COMPOSITION FOR THE LONG WAR

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    PROSPECT MAGAZINE

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